That steep selloff after the fed surprise move, reversing today, at least for the moment its holding the Dow Jones Industrial is good for a 2 gain at this moment s p is holding above 3,000 1. 75 . Nasdaq up by 1. 5 . The question today, i want to know the answer to, joe, is, where are we what does this action tell us about whether weve hit a bottom or not or is this a process thats going to take more time its absolutely a process thats going to take more time this process began january 17th. On january 17th, the u. S. Ten year was 184 the u. S. Tenyear fell january 31st to 1. 50 the market at that point was telling us exactly where we are right now. Now i understand 95 basis points and what i left on february 12th, u. S. Tenyear was 1. 63 were going to take the lead from where the u. S. Tenyear goes you need to see the correlation between a lower yield and lower stock prices begin to break down i think whats incredibly relevant at this point is the actions of the Federal Reserve and what they did by giving a 50basis point cut basically not to be interpreted as they are trying to stimulate Economic Activity. Actually if you look at the circumstances surrountding the coronavirus, Consumer Behavior has to actually contract and retrench for there to be a containment of the coronavirus the Economic Activity argument doesnt fly. What flies in this is about leverage and liquidity and risk aversion for some reason, Market Participants since the middle of february, have had an irrational exuberance for safety. And they are fleeing away from risk aversion into the safety of treasuries what the Federal Reserve rightfully did yesterday was begin the process, begin the process of trying to discourage that type of behavior and get people to take risk again. Talk about taking risk, whether now is the right time to take risk, thats what we ask guggenheims scott minor yesterday. Heres what he told us at this stage of the game, we have more down side risk and, you know, the expression dead cat bounce thats what i think it feels like equity valuations continue to remain relatively high and, you know, i think trying to use an earnings model at this stage is a little bit difficult because nothing, you know, rate cuts arent going to salvage future earnings right now. So, you know, we need to find out where the bottom is here and until we have something that firmly tells us where it is, i think we should just wait. Lets react to that, weiss. Should we just continue to wait for a bottom i think so. I think were going to see the market sell off again. While you were talking, l. A. Just reported some more coronavirus cases and declared a state of emergency now that we have testing, the numbers are going to pick up and theyre going to be stark. So i somewhat equivocate between going longer i did buy some lows. I did add to just a couple other things because the good theres nothing good about the virus in terms of what its done to people or what its done to the economy, but seeing whats happened in china, we can sort of time frame it, if we can believe their data into how long its going to take to come back for the virus to start dissipating in terms of new cases. However, i think the headlines are going to be very powerful. Only 500 tests total in this country. Now up to 10,000 a day, the numbers are going to be frightening. I dont think you sell here because as i look at it, im very excited about the market, but in terms of scotts call about valuation, i agree the market expanded on multiple expansion based upon earnings supposedly growing in 2020 now were not going to how can you have any confidence to suggest a bottom is in, is imminent, is close with the tenyear at 95 bips under 1 as long as rates remain there, if not lower, who is going to come out and say that weve bottomed the stock market. I dont think it matters if we know where the bottom is. This comes back to how you define risk. Yesterday i was with two of my girlfriends. One say long only Growth Equities and they said, how do you manage risk in this environment so this goes hand in hand with the bottom i manage risk and i think about risk differently than scott minerd does and different than Hedge Fund People because to me, risk for my clients is not having the cash flow that they expect in their portfolios when they need it for me, finding a bottom doesnt really matter. If i miss it by 2 or 3 , it doesnt matter ive positioned my clients west virginias to portfolios to adjust for this. They are trying to suggest whether now is the time to add risk to your portfolio because you think a bottom is in or to listen to scott minerdn dont do it because you dont believe the bottom is in by the way, he says the tenyear, which he told us yesterday, could go to 25 basis points right that would be a stunning drop, even its hard to use the word stunning. Because every move has been stunning to this point but that would be something. Yeah, that would be over and over again, scott, when you and i have talked when stuff has hit the fan, weve talked about the speed at which the move has happened. And if it happened over months, a bleed off rather than so fast, rather than in five sessions, this would feel much different than it does right now however, last friday, again, we spoke here, with you, i believe, as well astephen, we talked about a coordinated effort by central banks. Didnt they just had to have a statement is what i talked about. Yesterday the part of the g7 had a statement and that was it and it wasnt a coordinated statement with us. And instead the fed had to step out and do what they did or thought they had to, scott. So what im seeing here is, when you say is it time it is time to add some in here and heres why last friday, first day in six, we saw buying come in in a big way. Not the market didnt finish higher, but on that big whoosh to the down side you saw risk capital come into the markets again. First time in six. Since then, weve seen the vix fall dramatically. Weve seen an awful lot of folks commit capital into different sectors and doing the normal sorts of sector rotation that youd expect so to your question, the answer is, yes, you should start. Scott minerd may be right. Do we continue 15 lower i dont know jenny doesnt know but its a good time to put some of that money, like i sid last week, that we took off the table in january, putting it to work now. I ran into the ceo of one of the Worlds Largest investment firms last night by happenstance at dinner. And i asked this person, a number of questions that are relevant to our conversation i wish i could tell you who it is, but i just cant do that who said the following, and it leads into you i said, minerd told me today that the tenyear could go down to 25 basis points and this person looks at me like, that sounds a little dramatic maybe more like 75 basis points which isnt all that far from where you are right now. I said how much more can stocks potentially go down . This persons view was by single digit percentage so were not wasnt looking for like another 20 or 15 or anything like that to the down side and i said what about the fed . Did the fed pan sniic this person suggested the fed moved too early and one of the reason yes the market reacted in the way it did is because it believes like everybody for the most part head said that a fed cut alone isnt going to spur somebody to go stay at a hotel or eat out at a restaurant more or take a trip that something from the fiscal side is also needed. And thats one of the reasons for the disappointment you know the criticism thats out there today that the fed panicked that they didnt have to do this that the move they did suggests that it was kneejerk and its not going to have that big of an impact from an economic demand standpoint which is what youre going to have in the words of nester today tell me what the fed does about that i think the fed did exactly what it told investors it would do we go back several months and say look at what powell said he said, look. Were going to change our stance of being on hold if theres a material reassessment in the outlook, anybody who doesnt believe theres been a material reassessment of the outlook has not been paying attention. Made a list here of organizations and groups around the country and the world who believe theres been a material reassessment the imf and world bank, the entire g7, the world health organization, every single medical expert we have on tv or has written, the entire stock market, the entire bond market and the Trump Administration believes theres been a material reassessment in the face of that, scott, the Federal Reserve stuck to its policy to reduce Interest Rates and do what it could i think what happened here, the statement by powell put a floor on the trade on friday and the big rally on monday came with multiple promises of easing from World Central Bank so you get the coordinated response and then today, you have this sort of mini reality as well you could make an argument, and everybody crumple up paper and throw it at me when youre ready. The fed may have put a bottom on the market for the given information and forecast we have at hand right now. And then you need a discussion about what is that information and i think you can start folding things in. For example, the los angeles emergency thing that theyre talking about, i think we expect that i think now were in a position, scott, and you said it was the most important, which is that the absence of a fiscal plan, congress cant put an 8 billion program, i mean, i guess theyll do it any day but its not been done the administration doesnt have a stimulus plan. In the face of those two facts, it would be, i think, derelict for the Federal Reserve which has the ability to do so rbc says the fed spooked the market that the bottom, in her words, is not in how is that possible . I disagree with the feds involvement i think it did. I think when you came out what are you spooked by first of all, we know the fed has no additional information. We also know that powell got up there and he spoke the truth he said just what scott said which is that the Monetary Policy is not the cure is it they want the fed chairman to so we were talking before the show started when you said that you think the virus maybe takes gdp down about 60 bips thats the estimate from our fed survey the average estimate this year was that before the fed cut no it was after we did a flash survey yesterday. Fresh results. What was your estimate . What was your estimate on the impact that that 50 bip cut is going to do to gdp versus where you were before yesterday . I dont have one. Do you think it would be meaningful it could. I think it was mr. Najarian talking about this idea or even joe, you need to put another side to the trade. Markets go into freefall if the idea was that gdp would fall with no stop, markets would fall with no stop. Then what do you get you get a onesided trade. The feds come in and said, this is another side to the trade lets balance it out lets bring in tony dwyer who thinks in his words a reflex rally is coming. I dont know if this is the start of it today. Maybe its too early to know that but what do you think about this notion that the fed spooked the market thats why you had the reaction that you did versus the old adage which weve tried and true for the last few years. Dont fight the fed. Which wins out the spooking of the market or the dont fight the fed . I think its all one idea typically what creates you get this whoosh. Im glad jon used the term you get the whoosh that creates a human nature event that is an oversold extreme last friday should be a temporary low in the market. That gets everything so incredibly oversold that you get this kind of the human nature side gets so oversold that you get this reflex rally that typically is very volatile over coming days but eventually takes at least two to three, four weeks. And then you go back and test the low as the Economic Data and corporate profit statements start to come in i would imagine a couple of things after the 2011 and 2016 stock market lows, it was the summer of those two years that the bond market tenyear bottomed so i would go away from the idea that if the tenyear trades down, its this monster signal for stocks the human nature whoosh put that into play. So then why are we different today, and we expect a test, than early 2019 when you didnt get a test and i think the answer is, nobody had a chance to get out so the sentiment surveys will say, wow, i am cautious. Im nervous. Im worried about recession. Whatever the reading is. But within six days, they didnt actually make an effective change to their portfolio because the first three to 4 , 5 , no big deal. Well just go back to the highs. Once you start to goeet that Economic Data, that drives it lower over coming weeks, once you get that data, that creates the test of the low. I just disagree i think that the tenyear keeps falling, tony. People arent going to have a big appetite to buy stocks theres nor would i i dont think you should like we downgraded the market on january 20th because it was ridiculous you were getting parabollic moves in stocks. Euphoria was all around and nobody cared about any risk of anything i mean, try and remember the last time i downgraded the mark market i went sector neutral. You had too much euphoria. That creates an environment thats ripe for what weve got i call it a daddy snap you take the market down hard and you sit back and say, maybe it was a little too much you bounce it and then you go back down. So unless you are willing if you buy here, unless youre willing to hold it when it gets scary again, its just time to do what jim cramer says. Stop trading dont do anything. You dont have to do anything. The other side of the coin from the negativity is brian belski who is bmos chief Investment Strategy also with us tony, you stay with us brian, i look at the headline for you is that you are sticking to your s p target of 3400 i dont know how the heck you can possibly be sticking with that today well, thanks for that rounding intro of support. I would say this im just a simple kid from minnesota. If the final number is 4, how are we going to get to 4 is it one plus three two plus two negative four plus eight i still think were getting to four what are you talking about i think stocks are higher a year from today i think stocks are higher at the end of the year. Why . I think, again, and i disagree with mr. Liesman if youre not changing the market and your call doesnt mean that youre not watching and assessing whats going on . No heres how you assess whats going on with the facts, okay now a recession and structural changes in the market, let alone bottoms, do not happen in one day. Anyone calling a bottom in a day, i think it takes a process. Whoever you were speaking with scott last night at dinner had it splat on, exactly right thats excellent, excellent, excellent commentary and i think its the right way to think about it. From a fundamental perspective, the reason why yields are going down is the fear trade, number one, but also, too, think about the rest of the world, okay . I stand behind my overall theme of dollar denominated assets the rest of the world is coming to america for stability not only in terms of income in their fixed income the dollar in terms of currencies, but stocks so from a longer term perspective, whether or not its a week or 12 to 18 months, we are still advising clients to be a high Quality Investor on the growth side and a high Quality Investor on the dividend side. We stand behind our 3,400. You tell me why your earnings target isnt too high, and then you tell me if its not too high why the market deserves a 19 1 2 times multiple on your earnings number thats how you get to 3400 well, we get to 3400 three different ways we run a dividend discount model, p e and macro aggression model. They are backward looking and too negative the p e model has been wrong because of where people have their risk profile dividend discount models, we can afford a higher multiple and it goes back to the whole stability trade. We believe that investors are going to be paying for stability. We dont make shortterm calls in terms of downgrading the market we are investors we run portfolios for private client investors in canada and the United States with a 22 turnover and outperform longer term trying to make shortterm calls, i think its very dangerous. This is about a process. The process of the correction, by the way but youre not making a shortterm call. Youre making a ninemonth, tenmonth call you said stocks are going to be higher at the end of the year than they are today. I am. Im not going to make a call that today is the bottom nor am i going to make a call that were heading into recession because i think those are the wrong calls. So you need perspective in terms hough this correction and whats transpired thursday was a terrible day. Friday we had the reversal monday, over the weekend, everybody got nervous and had the big up day on monday where you bought the rumor, sold the news on tuesday. Now were trying to figure out where are bonds going and what does that mean for your positions . Going back to my earlier math. I still think the number in terms of math is four. How do we get to four . Are we going to be one in the first half and three in the second half in terms of earnings thats probably more like lly. Two questions hold on steve weis is going to stack a question and then tony, sounded like you had something to say to belski so what have you done with your s p estimate . Consensus was about 174 this year youre at 176, which is a little higher have you adjusted it if not, is it because you foresee it i think its to be at 21 multiple, not on a 19. Well, numbers have been coming down from a consensus basis for a while which is only part of our earnings methodology. Id say that number one. Number two, yeah, i do think that we are no one is really talking about demand shock on the up side that could drive earnings higher than most people think. I think people are being too defensive. We reserve judgment in terms of potentially changing our earnings forecast but well not change our Market Forecast because we dont see the data fitting that in terms of the efficacy of changing our target at this time in terms of the facts. So tony dwyer, there are others who are looking for vshaped bottom. Tom lee has come on this show and suggested the same so maybe it seems like belsky may be out on an island but maybe in reality, he is right. Youre going to have a shock and then a big old rebound so you ready for this one, judge . I think brian is too conservative if anything, i am looking to raise my target. Im at 3440. My number for earnings is 172. Ive been below the street since i initiated it when you know the fed is not going to raise rates for years, you dont put a low multiple on that lets say its 170 if anything, youll jack like steve just said, youll jack the multiple up a little bit so the reason i want to cover something thats really important. The fed cannot make people get on planes and go into restaurants. The idea that josh brought out yesterday that the fed cant do anything to help the economy short term is 100 correct all the feds rate cuts do is allow the banks to be willing to lend more aggressively on the other side of this economic acceleration so rather than buying a plane ticket to cleveland, you buy a plane ticket to europe or asia or somewhere else. You will spend more money because you are going to refinance your loan and probably take equity out of your house. I gave a presentation to 300plus cfas in san diego last week and asked everybody in the room, raise your hand if you have a fixed Rate Mortgage they all raised their hands. I said raise your hand again if you cut that Interest Rate by more than 50 basis points if youll refinance your debt and everybody raised their hand again. So the fed cut and the drop of Interest Rates is so extraordinarily stimulative that were looking to go on offense and i mean offense cyclical offense. I think both of you are too complacent about the virus and the impact its going to have. Thats why im not buying i definitely do you look for the human nature judge, i think you have to wait for the intermediate term indicator chrs human nature based to get oversold enough to get you back in. Thats why i havent upgraded to offense yet. Thats why i am waiting for that test of the low, which will come with more bad data i just want to be clear. We rarely get neutral. Things are excessive you test the low and im going to get offensive because this drop in Interest Rates is extraordinary belski perked up when you said you agreed with him or thought he was too conservative. I even saw it in his face. His color came back after i introd him there. What did you want to say heres what i want to say when clients lose money, its terrible when stock prices go down, its terrible its humbling to be a Portfolio Manager in these types of days because of people are losing money and theyre scared fear does not should not drive the market faith should it takes conviction to have courage. Im not being flippant about being bullish all the time which im getting all these messages it takes conviction. Im convicted inwhat i believe i believe the fundamental construct of the United States market is the same as it was seven days ago if youll react for the next seven days, do not react invest and stick with your process and discipline, period so on the desk, what do you think, jenny i agree with what tony said about this being human nature based. One of the things i come back to where im not so scared of the virus and dont think its going to have a big impact is that we bet against u. S. At the u. S. Strength of the u. S. Consumer, the strength of the u. S. Economy, at our own peril. We have resilient humans in this country. And were going to work around this but people you think the fed made the wrong move i think they made the right move you cant have it both ways okay you can you just said you think the fed made the right move but you dont think this is going to have a big effect on the economy because america always wins. In the long run those guys are both right. If the fed did what it did in the magnitude, because it believes youll have a significant shock of some kind in the economy, whether it ends in a recession or not. Who knows. The fed was damned if they did and if they didnt some people would have problems with it so they took action. They are doing what they can to stimulate. I think it was theyll have people will have more money in their pocket at the end of this. I also think money is going into come into equities when investing in bonds has no real good returns the resiliency of human nature kicks in which is way shorter than we expected people are going to be spending. Theyll have more money in their pockets. Equities more attractive than bonds. The fear is going to roll off. People are going to be bored sitting home, not buying things. Ive flown on four flights they are all packed. No one is wearing masks. Restaurants are packed i think were resilient and not giving people credit for the resilience scott, i think its also when you sorry, tony when you look at it and the numbers side of it, the mortality, the death rate of this particular virus, the more you to steves point top of the show, the more people that come down with the virus, the reason the market isnt reacting the same way as when 17 people are quarantined in spain a week ago, scott, is because thats the denominator. The number of people that get affected we know more people are going to get sick everybody says that. As far as number of sicknesses as far as number of deaths, thats the numerator so youve got the top number deaths none of us want to see that go from 3,000 to 5,000 to 10,000. But the larger the denominator is, the less people are dying as a percentage of getting sick so in other words, we all know were going to get the flu when you have the flu, you dont think youre going to die. If you are infirm, then maybe you have a risk. I am just saying i think the 4,000 points scott, let me add can i add one more line . Go ahead. Lets do this hold on. Let me do this i have to take a break im already overdue for that just sit tight well take a break, come back and continue the conversation on the other side three bullish calls on three big consumer stocks. Well go around the desk on home depot, Toll Brothers and target in our calls of the day. And keep your questions coming the Investment Committee is ready to answer them ahead in ask halftime. To reach us go to cnbc. Com halftime or tweet us. The Halftime Report with scott wapner and the traders is back in two minutes our Retirement Plan with voya gives us confidence. Yeah, they help us with achievable steps along the way. So we can spend a bit now, knowing were prepared for the future. Surprise we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. Oooh, well. Im good at my condo. Oh. I love her condo. Nana throws the best parties. Well planned, well invested, well protected. Voya. Be confident to and through retirement. Its more than just fast. It keeps all your devices running smoothly. With builtin security that protects your kids. No matter what theyre up to. It protects your info. And gives you 24 7 peace of mind. That if its connected, its protected. Even that that petcamera thingy. [ whines ] can your internet do that . Xfinity xfi can because its. Simple, easy, awesome. [ barking ] ithat car is one of mine. And soon, its going to be one of theirs. But they would have never even known it existed. If it werent for the power of targeted tv advertising. Its smart. It grabs peoples attention. It works. Its why Comcast Spotlight is changing its name to effectv. Because being effective means getting results. Welcome back im sue herera heres your cnbc news update toyota recalling another 1. 1 million vehicles for possible fuel pump problems that could lead cars to stall the recall covers some toyota and lexus vehicles from as far back as the 2013 model year. The president of the European Union unveiling plans for its first ever climate law it will act as the basis for the European Unions plan to sharply reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions. Critics say that plan does not go far enough. The Louvre Museum in france reopening after a threeday closure triggered by coronavirus concerns new antivirus measures helped convince museum staff to come back it includes pulling staff out of the room where the mona lisa is on display because of the tight quarters and crowds in that particular room. And a new way of greeting. Take a look at this. It appears to be catching on even among opec leaders. Check out the secretary and the short sleeved shirt tapping feet with the russian oil minister. Theyre both in vienna for the opec meetings. Attendees have been given strict instructions no handshakes, no hugs and wash your hands frequently. Thats the news update this hour thank you for that. We still, do, have brian belski and tony dwyer. Joe terranova wanted to make a point. Being away for a couple of weeks and seeing whats going on, were having the wrong conversation were making this a mainstreet conversation main street is not reacting. Wall street is reacting right now. We are now in day seven of this. Main street, i think, has become far more financially literate. They understand to jennys point that america will come back. The economy will come back once again. If i told you that the value of your house was going to decline 10 in the next ten days and over the next 30 days go down another 5 to 10 , youre not selling your house this is about wall street. This is about speculators and the Federal Reserve, steve, which i think is doing exactly what they should be doing. Why is there such a dramatic shift in risk aversion to where everyone is saying, i want gold, i want tips, i want treasury that type of behavior, the Federal Reserve is trying to impede in 2001 and again in 07 and 08 a 50 basis point cut the signal at that point was, okay, the market said its a process. We need more cuts. They did two more cuts in each instance 2001, three cuts and 0708 three cuts the Federal Reserve is there they have room if they need to cut again. So i think were looking at this incorrectly. Yes, the value of tenyear treasury can fall to 75 basis points that could happen. What is the correlation in that environment to equities . Do equities continue to fall with it . If they, do the bottom is not in if equities break that correlation, you can find the opportunity in the names like the faangs and financials that will restore themselves. This is about the market this is about the economy. But if you compare in the fed and its great you brought up 07 and 08 and 02 also 01. Right and one of those those have periods of tight credit, very tight credit when the economy was going in recession or when there was economic have an impact. We havent seen any of that yet. You are going to have you wont see it. Wait a second youre going to have you cant avoid the Economic Contraction that were about to experience id like let steve finish his thought. Let joe finish the thought. The contraction were about to have. The way you remedy that is not by getting on an airplane. Not by going to a restaurant not by going to a mall thats the actual behavior where you distance yourself from those type of activities thats actually the solution in this environment. I got an email last night about an investment that im in. The first sentence said your k1 is coming in the mail within the next few weeks if you dont get it, call us secondarly, were being impacted by the coronavirus we have bookings down 60 . 60 in the last week there is going to be an Economic Contraction that does not necessarily assuage to risk assets needing to decline in that environment its going to happen but the question is how long is the Economic Contraction . No one knows the answer to that ill put my money on it that its short okay. Youre entitled to your point of view i was going to point out, you have to ask, whats priced in here and we can sit here and i think we can come up with some pretty reasonable guesses about things like infection rates and even responses. And i think somebody during the break mentioned this idea, is the market prepared for, for example, the closing of the new York City School system . I think if you sit here today, its not hard to imagine i think what has to happen is you stocks have to pass into the strong hands that will hold stocks through those headlines i dont know that weve gotten to that process i love the point. Thats where i want you to end, belski and dwyer what is priced into the market right now . How much bad news is priced in ultimately that matters more than anything whether a bottom is close in or whatever. You cant rationalize with an irrational person. You cant rationize with an irrational market. I think theyve gone down too far. And whats been priced in, i think, is main street, is holding on and joe brought up, i think, one of the best points ive heard all afternoon. I was very blessed and humbled to learn the business from my first mentor William Oneal 30 years ago. He used to tell me, the Retail Business is the dumb money its completely reverse nod. Institutional money is chasing momentum, no process, no perspective. Main street is what continues to drive our economy and our country. And so i will hold firm that we believe that the majority of the down side is over on a relative basis. Are we going to get another 5 sure i dont know but nobody knows. The majority is already done i appreciate your being with us always like your point of view, brian. We hold you accountable on all the views. I appreciate you being here. Tony, give me your last word scott, as i always like to say, corrections only seem natural, normal and healthy until youre in one. And by definition to get more than a 10 drop in the s p, its got to come with a perception of a major fundamental change and certainly, the covid19 gives it that perception but again, i think that over the near term, theres many different kinds of viewers that we have. Over the near term, the more active people, you the human nature side suggests a multiweek bounce followed by a test of the low. Ultimately, the enormous and incredible drop in rates is extraordinarily stimulative. Weve been talking about it since last december, scott this is one of those times where you are looking to put offense back on the field. And you just need to have conviction when you test the low to be able to do it. And i expect to have such conviction what i said to belski applies to you we appreciate your time always being here when we need you. Let me let you know as well, tomorrow at 12 30 eastern, Jeffrey Gundlach, the doubleline ceo will be with us to talk about what he is seeing in the markets now. This unbelievable drop in Interest Rates weve seen. The feds surprise move. What it all means for your money. Well do it tomorrow with Jeffrey Gundlach coming up, jon najarians options trade in the unusual activity hes tracking the volatilitvolay well get his trades coming up you can always watch or listen to us live on the go on the cnbc app dow right noup 5w 80 halftime is back after this. At Southern New Hampshire university, we believe in education built for all people. [woman] snhu was the best experience of my life. [man] without snhu, i wouldnt be the leader i am today. [woman] i graduated high school 19 years ago. I still finished. [man] in the military, you feel that sense of accomplishment. Thats what snhu is. You will march from this arena and say to the world. I did it. [woman] you did it. I love you. [graduate] i love you too. Apps except work. Rywhere. Why is that . Is it because people love filling out forms . Maybe they like checking with their supervisor to see how much Vacation Time they have. Or sending corporate their expense reports. Ill let you in on a little secret. They dont. By empowering employees to manage their own tasks, paycom frees you to focus on the business of business. To learn more, visit paycom. Com and when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. Thats why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. Talk, talk gold miners, the etf is lower by 4 over the past week options traders, though, are betting on an up swing thats what jon najarian is going to tell us today curious as to a whole bunch of things youre seeing in the Options Market tell us about this first as you saw when we were here, which was just a little bit ago, the gdx, the miners etf fell dramatically over just a couple sessions i mean, very dramatically. All the way down to here now were seeing that kind of leg back up. And we saw the gld as well gld, slv all these that track the metals saw that rebound on the fed cut. These guys came in scrambling in, buying longer dated calls. January 36 calls i bought these calls ill be in them several months, i believe. And well keep an eye on that. So when you look at the next one, take a look at microchip because this one is a may option its the may 90s were seeing a lot of this kind of action where people that are a little afraid to put capital in to a 90 stock but the stock has just come down from 110 to 90 like that, thats pretty big drop they are buying the at the money calls. In this case, may 90 calls and they bought a lot of those as you can see this spike here. Bought a lot of those calls. Its going to move with the stock about 50 cents for every buck the stock moves ill be in these two months. As far as just one other quick one, scott we were seeing, obviously, Health Care Stocks bought in big numbers. Were also seeing the xle. A lot of activity here and people dont really believe that opec tomorrow is going to be able to make a cut that would cause these stocks to go back up so theyre aggressively call in. We are tracking the traders moves up next. They are buying some stocks, selling some, too. Were also answering your questions. A number of calls on wall street today on a number of bigname stocks ldol do that. Wel it all in two minutes i have an idea for a trade. Oh yeah, you going to place it . Not until im sure. Why dont you call Td Ameritrade for a strategy gut check . Whats that . You run it by an expert, you talk about the risk and potential profit and loss. Couldve used that before i hired my interior decorator. Voila maybe a couple throw pillows would help. Get a strategy gut check from our trade desk. Its almost like a challenge everyday mywws been an amazing journey. To see how well i can eat and still enjoy myself all day long. I wake up every morning to see how much weight ive lost and how much better i look. Myww join today with the ww triple play shouldnt you pay less when ynow you can. Data . Because Xfinity Mobile gives you more flexible data. You can choose to share data between lines, mix with unlimited, or switch it up at any time. All on the most reliable wireless network. Which means you can save money without compromising on coverage. Get more flexible data, the most reliable network, and more savings. Plus, get 300 off when you buy a new Samsung Galaxy s20 ultra. Thats simple. Easy. Awesome. Call, click or visit a store today. Welcome back our traders are make something moves today. So lets talk about you first, steve weiss. You sold fedex yes and you added amazon. I added to amazon i also added to google, which i forgot to mention. Tell me about both. I think amazon is i dont think i know my position wasnt big enough. The stock has come down a little bit. I dont think anything in momentum changes theyll do better in this kind of environment with fewer people going to the malls and stores and they wont have a problem delivering because theyll appropriate drivers appropriately. The new position is lowes ive been watching lowes. I do think its an interesting play the correlation to Interest Rates right now is broken down the last six months or so. If you look on a fiveyear chart, theres a correlation inverse correlation with rates going down the stock goes up. I like it to do some changes its not expensive why not home depot it was a coin toss but home depot had a little more momentum in the share price than lowes with rates where they are, are you doing anything because youre looking for yields somewhere ins the div plays that you love first of all, ive been adding where i have cash and im extremely comfortable adding to my Real Estate Investment trust positions a lot of those actually theyve held up relatively well. Ive got lamar advertising, hospitality properties, Iron Mountain they have terrific yields, and theyre direct beneficiaries from lower Interest Rates. Because borrowing costs are lower. I added to regional banks. I was a little early and wish i were buying them now instead theyre being crushed as if net interest margins are going to zero i just checked in with them this morning and said how much does this impact earnings a 50 basis point cut it hits it by about 10 . Thats not all of earnings lets say my earning estimates are 8 low are than they were. Theyre still trading at nine times earnings umqua and pacwest are the ones ive added nine times earnings. I think theyll make a lot of money. Dividends are safe but theres stuff to do with the misperce misperception of how rates are going to hurt stocks Morgan Stanley gets upgraded at citi to a buy the stock has been down since they did the deal for etrade you know what im trying to say. You sold goldman recently. I did you look at the yield curve and see where rates are. The selling in financials began in the middle of january you know where im going. Exactly think about this we came into 2020 overly excited about exposure to financials myself included. We all talked about how to own the banks. How to own the financials. 2020 was going to be their year. The financials right after they reported reported earnings they began to decline and concurrent with what we saw in the fallback to yields im not ready to say to increase the exposure to the banks. I have in financials taken positions recently in number one cme. I think the exchanges and important to understand the amount of derivative transactions to go on in the exchanges whether its cme, ice or nasdaq. I took a position in black rock which i had my eye on for a while. I think Asset Management is actually going to get a reprieve in this environment when you reflect back and beginning to hear the reporting, steve, of some numbers whether its stevie cone or viking, theyre all outperforming in january and i think active is coming back. Okay. I did also sell some goldman earlier. I havent sold any in the latest flush. But i dont think theres a rush to buy the financials either my exposure is really . Visa also in Carlisle Group and doesnt have to be in the banks. Talk about a few other calls that were made today doc, target. Okay target added to the conviction buy list at goldman sachs. Goes to 125. They say the multiples contracted they obviously like the story. Yep. You own stock and options calls. Yes, sir. How about this call you know, again i like it. Talking about an environment that feels different than it was a month ago. True. In terms of Consumer Behavior and where things may go. One of the bits of Consumer Behavior, scott, is that people are having more and more things delivered. Almost on a daily basis from target depending where you are in the country, of course. Not countrywide that everybodys doing that but you see more and more target boxes alongside amazon boxes because theyre directly going at each other in this regard. You pay a fee. As much as you want delivered throughout the month and so forth. I think thats another reason if people are hunkering down that they can get the stuff delivered to them. I added to it yesterday, too, by the way. Same reason i just thought the numbers have been good, doing the right things and the stocks come down quite a bit. Almost 20 . So thats why i did it. Not sure its the right thing. On that note, i talked to all the investors all the time and i thought one said in particular something which is, you know, i think is worthy of sharing yes, these stocks if you look at it and looking where you may want to buy something, its come down too much and i think its ridiculous that its trading here the response to me would be something like, yes, but it is a stock. The point being if the stock markets going to go down now, whether you have a great story to tell, the likelihood the stock will not go down is offside. Great point except i think in the instance simple but so true. That is a great point but i think you are looking for stocks in that environment going to outperform the value of fangs has increased even more since i last sat with you on this desk since early february i think the premium that you will pay for them, the valuation premium that theyll trade at relative to the s p themselves is going to continue to widen in this environment. Okay. Another call today, Toll Brothers added to the best idea. You know housings been a strong point, doc. Last year i was in a right now im not, scott, but i like the call here. Obviously because of the Interest Rate move and the refinancing that we have discussed and so forth but that plays both into home depot as well as these Home Builders and i think they itb is etf. I bought it. Good move. Recently. Thats the move to give you the broad based coverage. Do we think that the refi is a boom i wonder if thats a fallacy, too. Rate coming down after the stock market is annihilated and play the Closing Costs and took a massive hit on the net worth because of the stock markets falling out of bed i dont know. I actually spoke to a Mortgage Broker on the drive here and said her phone is completely ringing off the hook and a massive hit to the net worth is we are at october levels and looking at the portfolio, sending reports last october after the Third Quarter ending call everyone thought they were great, rich. Given more and taken away feels badly but the massive hit is not a big of a hit. Maybe its overstated to your point. I think theres a massive refi boom coming. Okay. So that was okay. Well take a break and do final trades next. Legendary terrain in telluride, the unparalleled landscape of park city, or the famed peaks of whistler, youve faced the hassle of lugging your gear through the airport. With ship skis, youre just a few clicks away from having your skis, snowboard and luggage shipped from your doorstep to your destination. With unrivaled pricing, real time tracking ship skis delivers, hassle free. Ship ahead and go catch those first tracks on fresh snow. Ship skis. Your skis. Delivered. And when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. Thats why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. Talk, talk doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacistrecommendeding . Memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Do not miss a cnbc special report tonight 7 00 p. M. Eastern on the coronavirus the very latest on that outbreak thats tonight 7 00 p. M. Eastern right here on cnbc lets home depot. Okay. The call i missed looking for but couldnt find. Talk to me okay it was upgraded to buy valuation they like. The target goes to 251 from 240. They list a number of factors, as well. Right a couple things on this. First of all, they have had 34 straight quarters of comp sales of 2 or better. We think its within of the most consistent retailers in the world. Trading 20 times but still has a 5 Free Cash Flow yield and this is something that we have owned since 2013 and paid 77 back then and the reason to talk about it and highlight it now because this is something to hold where it doesnt matter if you know theres a bottom in sight or not on you really get paid to be long term here and we held it through 2018 when the market down 20 . We held it through 2016 when there was an oil crisis and throughout that time we have had the 200 return and we havent realized Capital Gains and want to remember thatsometimes long term focus can pay off. Good stuff. Id buy it now, too. Thank you for that. Steve, give me a final trade please. Boeing. Down today i dont think it should be a great interview on cnbc earlier said that he still owns a timeline of mid year for the plane to come back two to three months from mid year that stock will do quite well into the end of the year and next year. Dr. J salesforce. Now of course at the top just running things and i think hell make a move in the next little bit here especially after this correction so lets keep an eye on this one. Okay. Pacwest being priced as if Interest Rates going zero and a really good, profitable company. We have missed your voisz the last couple of weeks. Appreciate that. Good to have you back. Good to be here docusign a strategy of the markets bottoming, about range expansion and trading ranges today a small trading range. A good signal. See where it goes. We will good stuff thank you for watching the exchange starts now. Thank you, scott welcome to the exchange, everybody. Im kelly evans. Coming up from down 8 00 yesterday to surging 700 today well look under the hood of the rally. And see if it can last. Plus the historic drop in rates has homeowners rushing to refi how low the rates could go and push up home prices. As Michael Bloomberg su spends the president ial bid, following the money to answer a key question, what will he and what can he do with the billions we begin with todays monster rally. We could call it