Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20240713

Wall street is poised for a higher open. The historic impeachment of President Trump. Secretary mnuchin will join us exclusively in the next hour. We will discuss the postimpeachment economic agenda between now and the election the house readying that vote on the usmca, an important trade agreement. Plus, chips are continuing to outperform the rally the ceo will join us in squawk ali and iac is spinning off an online match group, all of it, shares are climbing ahead of bell now you, we begin, of course, with the market, one day after the impeachment of the president. Its an interesting evening. Yeah, it was. You know, david, this is the beginning of an under performance period if we find if we analogize to clinton. The only difference is that there were democrats who joined republicans in the impeachment process because they thought it was a cut and dry violation the lying about the section act. It was one count of perjury about lying about the sex act. You said there was a little more suspense than there is now. It wasnt viewed as a Campaign Event so to speak. It wasnt second term. I think the history says 2 to 3 pull being here. Lets talk about the markets. We made clear the markets dont seem to be clear at all, there are a lots of things markets are on, whether its trade or a vote on the usmca that was a positive seen by the markets. Phase 1 of the china deal. Very positive potentially a significant positive were getting bits and pieces of earnings you want to talk about we dont want to calm it a term but at least some green shoots, i guess. Dont forget as fred smith said you have ricochet bullets from china during the trade war. You can reverse some of that its funny, we want to see autos do well. Theyre doing okay theyre having some trouble making electric vehicles you know that benefits, a mix of test of the fabled 420 mice target up 420 being of course 420 was the code call for marijuana, catching people catching marijuana in progress in california. You know what, thank you, i honestly didnt know where the 420 derived from. I am a fountain of information. I few it had significance. I didnt know it derived from a police call. Its sui jen generis. Its up after having been down significantly the rally has tesla. The two stocks. Tesla and netflix everyone is saying 2020 will be a big year the numbers people are using for tesla. Actual numbers, profits is starting to freak out the bears. The netflix a lot freaked out because of disney plus one after another comes out saying netflix is having a barn burner a lot of barn stuff. You have to go to other countries to see how pour powerful netflix is. That is a good point in that filing to give you a sense of the growth obviously, we know how important it is. There is an argument maybe made. Their ability will be challenged by disney plus the term i really like, no, dont worry about it there is research out by pivotal talking about the war of worry and remain bulls, david, when you get the email usually around 7 00 on whats playing on netflix. Do you you click and watch i dont get the email. I get another there was an email who is that sent by read. By fet flicks. What do you think bob eiger. Bob igor is better than communicating than read hastings. They tell you what to watch they know me so well yeah i dont get the email jason, the foul is coming were working our way slowly through the crowd. Another season they had the early. I havent goen to amazon yet to watch mrs. Maisle of course, i want to do. The first two seasons. Back to micron, the story we want to get back to stocks and talk about micron. Sanjay road trip. He sat right there and called the bottom i think we are saying this Conference Call was the bottom he called it mid40s. He sat right there he sat in david atlys chair, being the ceo. Of ups. Lets listen to him. What he had to say, okay, ceo of micron as he bought 80ple shares, there is still a huge amount of fire power in your buyback that only 2. 7 billion. Stock at 45, 46. Go to your board, go to your treasurer, go to your cfo, and say lets go back in because i understand you did not buy stock when it went to the high 40, low 50s this is your sweet spot. Will you put mound to work after the interview. I dont understand. That was just you saw. It was kind of strange. That was really odd it was would be sanjay. What was that okay. So okay do you want to actually tell wlaus he had to say after we listened who cut that okay. What he said was, he put almost no money to work he never really went ebe low that last night on the calm it was seminal. He said, literally said, fiscal Second Quarter, that ended was the first. Well mark the bottom. Now, we heard that by the way from allen photograph at fedex yesterday the cfo. No, graph was probably wrong although i was wrong where rite aid. I have like you know sunny side ups on my face from that he did. Sanjay did say that was going to be the bottom. It is. Prices are okay. Deceleration what can i beyond micron. They have a way to simpson. What can i look flew . Sky work solution, jose quervo apples. Hpis. Ill go through a look at texas instruments. Because of what happened with hauwei, they said you have to buy marvel technology, not marvel the box no, no, no. Marvel technology, hauwei was a major countries. David, we see a lot of lovee dovee stuff in the United States and china. Dont forget, former secretary of state henry kissening quietly, he says she would rather deal with trump than any of the democrats, mostly the democrats care a lot about human rights not that trump doesnt care. Well, speaking of politics and the democrats and republicans. Lets get down to ylan in washington for the day after the impeachment. Reporter good morning, david. We are waiting for Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell to take to the floor just a half an hour. I am told he would call the house impeachment the most rushed, the lowest thorough and unfair impeachment inquiry republicans and democrats have begun sparring over what a senate trial would look like minority leader Chuck Schumer is demanding that senators be able to hear from witnesses including acting white house chief of staff nick mulvaney, mcconnell dismissed that idea. Today he will call schumers request, trying to fix House Democrats failure for them. Remember mulvaney did not testify in the house there is question over when they will receive those articles of impeachment in the house last night after the votes, House Speaker nancy pelosi would not commit for sending them over until she had more clarity for rules in the trial in the senate. This is what i dont consider a fair trial that leader mcconnell has stated hes not an impartial juror. Hes going to take his queues and quotes from the white house and he is working in total coordination with the White House Counsels Office now, this morning, mcconnell will say that this is just a sign that democrats may be too afraid to move forward david, we have learned that pelosi and schumer are expecting to meet later on this morning to discuss their next step. Okay. And we will be listening to your updates. Why lan, thank you did they give you a Conspiracy Theory . Id prefer you didnt. Speaker pelosi delays this, remember talking about delay this makes the senators available to campaign for president have to sit there all day for trial. She is not there is my speech. A bit of a conspiracy not the worst one ive ever heard of david what we should do is go into iac. I would like to it is a corporate story this morning. We got a few of them talked about micron earnings iac announced its plans to separate the dating Service Operator match group entirely from the company iac now currently holds a stake in the parent, of course, of p apps like tinder they expect completion in the Second Quarter of 2020 jim. Whats interesting is here is that barry diller, who, by the way, you know, i think sometimes may not get enough credit for all the value hes created through all the different spins and various things that he has done and heres another example of that but whats interesting is here, its the first time i can remember where they completely let something go, in other words, there is not going to be any ownership by iac of match. Diller, himself, loaned 6 i think whats important to note here is that match will become a one vote one Share Company all right. So its governance changes. What will that allow for Index Holdings to own it indexers to own it oh. Because and that could conceivably create some buying power. You can get index. The other question is, could it get bought in other words again no control whatsoever, would it become intentionally an acquisition target now, its hard to imagine whether facebook will be allowed. I was going to say, if i were, maybe there is fewer on facebook fof. But at the same time you can imagine a world in which theyd be interested in taking a look as might others. A couple things to note. He is one smart guy pal joey . Pal joey lives down a block from here. Yeah. Its a good thing, too so well keep an eye on that. Match is good, david. Match has great numbers. The reservation, yes, has been Facebook Facebook cant ufr a it and its really good. I want to go back to barry diller its a 3 dividend as well, that they will be sending to iac shareholders why does he get so little cred it . Do you really the think he gets so little credit . Im not sure id say that. We treat him as though hes a sage he is a great sage. He he is building that island off dillers island, that incredible pier that hes creating. Have you seen it take a look at let me give you a little sage advice, no man is an island, chief. You chiefed me at 9 13, you are chiefing me. Why not this is christmas week conagra a great number. Frozen foods and slim jim. Millennials love beef jerky they do. I dont understand that. They love meat, frozen food why . Because theyre cheap as all get out. Theyre food and dr frugal chef boy ardee improved. You know me and chef boy ardee do back. We spent a lot of time together in my early 20s. A lot. We serve. How about tang we went back to tang, astronauts used it. My diet was chef boy ardee and chips ahoy cookies it was never opened. Were on tv now, sir. Did your mother water down the welchs grape juice . The no. And tell you we werent poor . Everyone was. We had hawaiian punch remember that . You know what that did to me coming up, treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin as Congress Gets ready to vote on the usmca up next, though, we will have jims mad dash and count down to the opening bell through the at t network, edgetoedge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. From using feedback to innovate. To introducing products faster. To managing website inventory. And network bandwidth. Giving you a nice big edge over your competition. Thats the power of edgetoedge intelligence. Yes im stuck in the middle with you, no one likes to feel stuck, boxed in, or held back. Especially by Something Like your cloud. Its a problem. But the ibm cloud is different. Its open and flexible enough to manage all your apps and data securely, anywhere, across all your clouds. So it can help take on anything from rebooking flights on the fly, to restocking shelves on demand, without getting in your way. All right. Lets get to a mad dash. We have about 13 minutes before we get started with the Stock Exchange i hike to start with google but its name is alphabet. They call it google the other ecommerce power. Like the other white meat pork which you know is in the news. David, did you know that google has onethird share of u. S. Ecommerce . I read this as a good and bad piece. This piece says alphabet is incredibly powerful. There will be some state attorney general who reads this and says i want to be governor and go against these guys. Not unlike blocking the merger that you are covering. This is too powerful, alphabet is too powerful. Thats what i said, onethird what are they referring to what does that mean . All the transactions, ad Product Innovation its genius, the cfo im a ware of who she is. A genius. Her father escaped from the holocaust, without ever going to finishing college, was a professor of physics and Computer Science, directing the Computer Science department at stanford, how great is she if you say so i dont ruth very well. You better get on the darn case i was never particularly interested i will tell you as you well know an important change there is neither one of the founders is going to be involved in the daytoday operations of the company anylonger there yeah, founders anything in the note about that no, its just really takes over full lid and whether those new bets will be deemphasized in anyway . Pin chot not mentioned in this thing the word is, david, there will be more discipline and it wont decide to autonomous vehicles, waymo, thats the real problem. David, that i have to do ga zillion simulations. No one know what is to do on black ice. Okay. I didnt know that, either back to tess florida. How about 420 real drive conditions, all those cars out there ever since musk stopped feeding them that stock started going up i got behind it. Nontweets. I got behind them big heres a look at alphabet you see behind my head there by the way, dont forgive, Steven Mnuchin the treasury secretary of the United States, he will be our guest at 10 00 on squawk on the street we have a lomo ft reor you including opening bell ten minutes away mineach day our planet awakens with signs of opportunity. But with opportunity comes risk. And to manage this risk, the world turns to cme group. We help farmers lock in future prices, banks manage Interest Rate changes and airlines hedge fuel costs. All so they can manage their risks and move forward. Its simply a matter of following the signs. They all lead here. Cme group how the world advances. Cme group but were also a company that controls hiv, fights ccer, repairs shattered bones, relieves depression, restores heart rhythms, helps you back from strokes, and keeps you healthy your whole life. From the day youre born we never stop taking care of you. All right. The futures, of course, we got an opening bell 8 minutes away you can see right there. Well se she wanted to move someplace warm. But he wanted snow for the holidays. So we built a snow globe. Ill get that later. Dylan but the one thing we could both agree on was getting geico to help with homeowners insurance. What . Switching and saving was really easy i love you what . Sweetie hands off the glass. Ugh call geico and see how easy saving on homeowners and condo insurance can be. I love her brakes screeching okay. So, today youre going to leave your phone with a guy named flip. ding but its more than your phone, its your business, your customer data, your sales figures. And who can forget, those happy hour selfies . Not flip. honking, gasping this isnt working. Introducing samsung Business Security solutions, with knox software. With the galaxy note10, you can remotely wipe data or lock phones, so your business is secure even when your phone isnt. Samsung business solutions. 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Where the book is passed in london, you got the best hands on those things, unless you get up at 3 30 like i do and have a handle on it. Yes, you do. Its just that my eyes are opened too long a day. Your eyes are opened and your mouth is opened too much, too. Off talk too much and look at too much. I had a contract with les munoz, i had to administration i had to get out of it my ent person counted the word i was saying each day i was saying 15,000 the average american can only say 10,000 so i was developing noesd in my thats what they say. Most americans probably say a few thousand words, are you saying 15,000. Right. You are up since 3 30 given how long you have been awake, jim yes. What do you think the key to the markets will be . I dont want to peak micron, you know what i will do, i will do something negative. I think the market is overbought here i will do a shortfall in a restaurant you know as i do, olive garden at darden and people are looking for literally twice what jean lee was able to get you at olive garden so were looking at implications im going to say since i dont think the market is in a tepid mode its a sales miss and higher meat costs because you know why . The theme i keep giving you, african swine fever. People dont understand this is decimating hog herds all over the world. Not here. No, because we have biosecurity. And its causing food to go up in price now, remember, Even Communist Party regimes, which everyone says the general xi is so powerful, hes king over there lets stay close to food inflation. Yes. Hope that zoettas finds a cure to this airborne highly contagious highly contagious almost like the illness, never forget the lincoln tunnel scene in the movie. I i dont know e wont forget that as you point out and have made people aware of it is a very significant issue the swine flu, particularly in china, farms are lurying the pigs too close, thats how contagious it is, therefore, its still this is not talked about enough it could be, this is the reason why theyre going to have to spend 40 billion the chinese because they eat a lot of pork well, well talk to the secretary about those agricultural purchases jim. That would be great to ask secretary mnuchin. I think i will. We can ask him that. I wanted to hit boeing briefly before we get to the opening bell phil lebeau says President Trump had a phone conversation with ceo prior to the suspension of the 737 max production mullen berg told the president the halt will be temporary and there will be no layoffs we know all that how do they have no layoffs cmon, are they ever going to have a cash flow. I think many people are wondering, frankly, when it comes to mr. Mullen berg who is going to be the ceo after him. David, i dont know, thising as to, certainly not because of the stock. Which helds up incredibly well. Not because of the stock. Its still hard to imagine he keeps his job. I dont like to speculate on that. Really . I cant get you . You will talk about virtually anything 15,000 words worth. Not that in. No. Why hes trying hes trying. Now i know that the great the former great coach par cell would say i dont want trying i want winning i want doing. Look the guy tried to join the show might as well clap is there that was interesting. There it is, the flaps are building here. Of course, we will get an opening bell you can see the real Time Exchange back at our headquarters here at the big board as we get ready, imagine david, i want to point something out. The moment the bell rang, tesla started going up its habitual at this point 420. 2280 come in, please. You, youre positive on tesla. Yeah, i am. I found they have earnings he is no longer antagonizing the sec. The other guys are having trouble making the product i happen to drive in the x and thought it was the coolest thing in the world my wife owns the flatulence button. When did you drive in the x six weeks ago, when the stock was much lower and thats when i had to go positive, because it was one of the greatest things, board member Procter Gamble and cisco. We had to talk about it i dont own one. Youve never even driven it that is not true. I drive all the time. You do . All right thats new during the day. Usually you do something. Very little as little as possible. Have you ever been to the burlington near you . I have never been to a burlington. You dont even know what a bargain is, do you oh, i know what a bargain is . Not buying anything. Well, thats you. Thats you you see this suit, david, its a beroni 180 count its worth all ten of your suits. Thats me point out its very important lets keep going. Lets just keep going intel cant make the chips, david, thats one of the take aways. Happy again. You know what it will impact hp and you havent commented on hp in a long time. Its not as though its not ongoing. I dont have a lot of news at this point, xerox is continuing. I dont how to make the quarter. Not with intel excellence making chips. I think its another reason. They cut back on their pc production they cant make it. Its like theyre having a production problem a yield problem. Right so what you are going to see is amd will go up again, nvidia will go up again people are feeling at the eu said yes to the melanox nvidia deal, therefore, we think the chinese suit. Phase one, one would expect the prospects and trust approval from the organization in china that rules on these things would be improved. They wont promise me. That was a long time ago. You said it would be first quarter. They refuse to go up because of a series of deals theyre making with Chinese Companies and because of ten cent gains took down a lot of their chips. In individualia of course, a marvel one of the things that was so funny on the micron, you can ask sanjay, assume we have Artificial Intelligence chips. Soon, the Artificial Intelligence chips that jensen has already, theyre the one, remember what i told you not unlike the scene the man churian candidate go jump in the Lake Lawrence harvey goes just in a lake he understand thats hyperbole and its idium. Im starting to understand a lot of things. Yesterday i was at a conference what one gentleman offered the idea within ten years you are going to have sitcoms created by machines and acted by machines in other words, things that look like human beings but arent actually creations. David, listen to me, sunshine, listen to me, when i was out with the jensen, he told me, he said, listen, jim, in five years, lets say you are bored or you dont want to go out. You can create a Virtual Cocktail Party of people you like so he said lets say you like beethoven. You can put people in the room who know all about the sonatas you can put people in the room where poets. Theyre your, your creations, simulations. Not unlike elon musk called me i like the ode to joy. It will be a hologram yeah. You say a few years. You dont have to deal with any but millennials who hate people to begin with will create people they like and text them jensen is so much smarter than anyone else. When you are out there they dont say Mark Zuckerberg is smarter than anybody they say jensen is the smartest man on earth on earth. 7 plus billion people hes the smartest. On earth. Hes the coolest, by the way, wears a black jacket i like him i will say this its the year jensen won really . Yeah. 2017 was a good year. Thats the year jensen won. The stock was up so much. He was so great i named my dog nvidia. Im aware of the name. You know jensen gave me an it card he said he can come all he wanted no geeze. Speaking of chips, this broad com story from yesterday i have been working on it. Its not going to be ten why not now listen they kind of telegraphed it in the last earnings call. Even if you go back two earnings calls ago they had the shortfall, remember . Right but that i are segregating sort of the financials and repositioning the financials recreating a noncore potential. Apple is the big buyer or margin buyers slow margin what do you got there in the front with nothing. Then whyd you look at it i wanted to make sure it wasnt something significant. I try to shake my hand. You are making phone calls david this is tv. This is text. Go take it. No, no, no, i was explaining to you whats going on with broad com. Im going to continue. You think it is low margin i dont think apple is a buyer core vel . Core vel may not want more exposure to apple. Sky works i mat want more who would the 10 billion number in the wall street journal, maybe qualcomm, i dont know qualcomm is a natural ca qualcomm has so much cash. About the wifi business and what they will do there, apple even though they, few could argue they western irent integ, hence, theyre not going to be a buyer. Any problems with the chinese regulation i dont know. Its very low in technology. You can see its having absolutely no impact whosoever on the stock price. Why did you spend twoandahalf minutes on it it was important, it was out yesterday. It may have sent the stock up yesterday. Okay. I can deal with that general mills, david. Yes had a number yesterday that actually you know blue buffalo they did very well. 16 its the first, david, pet, this is the year of pets. Alongco upgraded today a very important upgrade it is time to by alonco . Why . Its the bank of america yield david, they bot the buyer product. Buyer, are they as good a seller as they are a buyer man, i dont know theyre the worst buyer. Buyer is the worst buyer i like that they are. I mean, what were talking about is the monsanto deal, of course, a complete disaster for the German Company that we like this call buyer as opposed to bayer like bayer aspirin. There was a ruling in the fifth circuit yesterday about the aca. Yeah. What they basically did they punched it out, pushed out the fine him, lent for 17 which is nearing its high and the whole group is rallying. People thought the group might go down. That was wrong point that out people are thinking its going to be Analog Devices thats not true. We did conagra. And general mills. It hit an all time high. That was the beginning of the nasdaq taking off. A lot of the big stocks, qualcomm was up huge remember they had that thousand percent. 2,000 percent. It was out a,0 thousand percent. March 10th 2000 it peaked i believe. March 15th. March 10th. March 10th thats the nasdaq peak. Okay. David. The peak, not the second peak i want to talk about two stocks that are stalwarts during that period. Johnson jonson, aaa balance sheet. They say its time im waiting for another assault by reuters, probably doesnt want to see this at a high and David Barclays upgrade cisco yeah. Why is this in this is very great. You know cisco is 21 of the top five stocks to buy during the trial of president clinton here we go. Cisco, barclays could be one of the top stocks to buy there is nothing analogous. I thought i liked it. I wanted to make sure. None whatsoever did you happen to see this Instagram Video thats been making the rounds recently of a cab driver who asked the guy in the back about what he did do you have it . He was a Hedge Fund Manager it was actually taken a couple months ago, only recently started making the round have you heard of this guy a fund manage zpler can we watch it his name is michael platte. Fascinating. Particularly when you make the statements he did. Take a look. This is something sent around a lot recently so my name is michael matt. And i must admit, its an honor to be in the back of your taxi in the world of finance, im the highest any person in the world in finance. Are you the highest what . Earning person in the world in finance. Wow in the world. So explain that to me so, im a Hedge Fund Manager and ive transformed my fund into a personal Investment Vehicle because we made such high returns and now its, its on the internet on forbes. Threre you have it. This was paid for by Elizabeth Warren no, that guy, he was obviously a british. Yes. Clearly has a leak problem. Thats the kind of thing that Elizabeth Warren seniors are trying to find the top ten people who might rival him is that is the most that man had huberis. He claims it was a joke it didnt feel that way. What he was doing in the back of a car that wasnt his own being driven by his own driver, i dont know the man that made the most mon in finance. Does it imply poorly on Mark Zuckerberg why thats what the New York Times would say, everything speaks poorly on Mark Zuckerberg and sasha cohen. You by br bring him up a lot. The facebook shares are up quite significantly up 1. 2 , jim the nasdaq. That adisagree with entirely, because your friends door dash. David i want to take a moment what an idiot i am i to the rite aid would have a shortfall. As horrible as that hedge fun manager was in terms of huberis. Yes im going down in the depths of a half acre and say i wasnt wrong. I didnt count right if you were lucky enough to buy rite aid yesterday, you are up the company is still below a billion dollars. We know the struggles its had they did have a far better quarter than previously. Loot of that, by the way, david, was same store sales, equivalent to 2. 8 but lisa gil who is a genius with j. P. Morgan raised her cbs thats charlie victor. Thats not bakish who you crushed the other day in aner view i did not crush them. Via com chairs up 2. 6 today you are tracing a lot of, making up a lot of losses right after they did the deal. No, its up after jerry redstone was seen in the fox again they lost not unlike the games theyre about to lose. It is the Lamar Jackson era. Why dont you get that out. Dan pisani. The story of the year. Larry culps, teflon, you cant say that anymore, that has that chemical. P fast. Lets take it over there p fast. Lets go to bob pisani, we will talk amongst ourselves. Ill Storm Tracker 2000 everybody else while you guys figure it out. The important thing about today were still up the leadership recent leadership a little flat. Communications service strong. We have twitter is up, facebook, netflix doing well consumer stereotypeles doing well conagra is doing well. Semi is flat micron, good numbers talked about a bottoming in the memory chip. We are looking for signs of bottom that overhaul is positive china has had a great month. Emerging markets, a great month. You see here, flatish giving back some of the gains there december 19th last year. Do you remember that da i . This was the day the fed raised Interest Rates, what was it the fourth time . What an ugly day this is december of last year. Heres where they raised the Interest Rates we cascaded down, going into november, december 24ing worst december 24ing ever. We bounced a little bit. We were down 11 by this time, the close of december 19th last year okay, a very different pick this year s p is up 1. 5 were essentially sitting at new highs. A very different picture completely in the opposite direction. One of the things thats happened noticeable recently has been lets call it a reflation trade. I dont want to go too far on this oil is up 10 this is the month. Were over 60 copper is up 5 or 6 oil and gas expiration production which was at the bottom for multiyear bottoms up 14 metals and mining stock versus had a bounce this is a modest reflation trade i think thats fair to say global mark versus looked better as we want the last couple of days we have come off 52week highs emerging markets had a great month overall. Europe was at 52 week highs, off of that slightly japan also at 52 week highs as yields of japan have essentially moved towards flat lining. Thats quite a move up, considering they were down in september, significant little. Even the european yield versus moved to the upside overall. Here in the United States sectors, semi conductors have a great month. Weve seen yields increase and the yield curve steepen, china as i mention up 6 heres the outlier, industrials down 1 . The big stuff when it has sector or Company Specific issues really smacks around the indexes, because if you take a look at what happened in the industrials for this month, its boeing and fedex. If it wasnt for boeing and fedex, two companies with very Company Specific issues as we pointed out time and time again, all the other major global industrials, stanley, black decker, deer caterpillar, doesnt matter, theyre all not only up this month, most of them are outperforming the s p 500. Again be very careful when you look at these mark cap weighted index. Overall, its been a very different december david, back to you thank you, bob. Lets check in with Rick Santelli at the cme group in chicago. Rick good morning, david if you look at the data we brought out this morning, you would not think that yields would be firm. They were actually firm before the data we had definitely a soft philly fed. Initial claims didnt fall as much as those that are watching, thought seasonal adjustments would account for based on thanksgiving the whole monst basically holiday seasonally adjusted. So were not going to get our gps. Whether you are, looking at our markets in Interest Rates or across the global. Long end rates are rising. It isnt necessarily fundamentals there is a year end effect and of course reit banks sweden foresakeing negative rates, which makes rates everywhere else more popular that are on the positive side. Nonetheless were moving higher. Look at two days of 10s, zoom it out to a week. We are testing levels in the mid190s open it up to june we are about to break at levels we havent closed since july the reason im get sock excited. Look at whats going on with bunds. Heres a two day of bunds. Today they have an interday minus 20 zoom out to november 1st we took out that high yield close. As bob was saying, we are basically flat, approaching zero japanese government bonds. Yet thats higher. Minus 23 high in november doesnt sound high, but it is. And now we look to be taking that out going back to if we zoom to july if you boom yeartodate, will you see it will have room to breathe. We want to pay close attention to the spread ween our sos and boones, a it is world recalibrates one of the forces is, you know, whether its junk bonds, triple c or barely Investment Grade aaa, everything is in vogue. We see the spread, how much extra above treasuries investors are willing to take. It isnt growing its shrinking that is giving a lack of a bid actually to treasuries and some of these global sovereigns, hence, maybe some of the selling. David and jim, back to you okay. Rick, thank you. Coming up, President Trumps postimpeachment economic agenda we will have secretary Steven Mnuchin join us. We will discuss trade deal usmca and china. Well be right back. A micron still up, not as much as it was in the early going after reported better than expected Quarterly Results it is up more than 70 , that being the stock so far this year stay tuned well have an exclusive with micron ceo Sanjay Mehrotra ns tr, ns tr, it feels like im just wasting time. Wasted time is wasted opportunity. Exactly. Thats why Td Ameritrade designed a firstofitskind, personalized education center. See, you just oh, this is easy. Yeah, and thats oh, just what i need. Courses on options trading, webcasts, tutorials. Yeah. Their awardwinning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. And it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. So its like my streaming service. Well exactly. Well except now, youre binge learning. Oh, i like that. Thank you, i just came up with that. Youre funny. Learn fast with the Td Ameritrade education center. Call 8662967451 or visit tdameritrade. Com learn. Get started today, and for a limited time, get up to 800 when you open and fund an account. Thats 8662967451, or tdameritrade. Com learn. vo than just the business theryou came for. More whether thats getting a taste of where you are, or bringing some of that flavor back home. Thats room for possibility. Lets get to living lets get to jim for stop trading. Sometimes we like to measure the strength of the market by down grades. Boston scientific a very good company, going to buy and its barely down. The medical device equipment stocks have all been on fire, a lot of that changes the tax but it shows you, you just dont short this market when it comes to the hot groups. Zimmer upgrade potentially lumped in with the warren rally as i like to call it, her poll numbers came down, so much of health care went up. People dont understand the bottom came in this Group Exactly when she peaked and straight up in there unh is the way to measure it, unh is considered villainous because its so big. Were moving off of come consist. Youre not with us no. You use teledoc no. You have your own health plan you have your own tailors and suits. Youre not part of the plan at all. David, you know what, feel this, its like butter wow land olakes is what i call it Robert Kramer is not related because mine is spelled with a c. Packer avenue, when you got in immigrants from got it. But you know now. Youre here tomorrow . David, im a fixture. Eyes open i am a fixture, david its all open 15,000 words. A day try that at home coming up, all about trade. Were going to have anintervie with the treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin ahead of todays umca vote on capitol hill. Keep it here theres room for mon just the business you came for. Whether thats keeping up with what you always do. Or training for something youve never done before. Thats room for possibility. Welcome back to squawk on the street. Rick santelli here, as the bell tolls. Were looking for our next read on leading economic indicators, its for the month of november were also expecting existing home sales leading indicators hitting the tape unchanged, unchanged, following an unchanged minus 0. 1, Something Interesting about this number. Weve had three negative leis in a row. We havent had four in a row since the end of 09 in the crisis time so this actually wasnt a bad read. The revisions just hitting minus 0. 1 gets downgraded to minus 2 but not four in a row and zero is the best number obviously since before that string of negative so that would be july. Now, for november read on existing home sales, we look to diana olick. Diana, what do you see in the number rick, existing home sales in november down 1. 7 to a sewsannal adjusted annually raised of 5. 35 million annual units and octobers number revised lower, a miss. Street was looking for flat. Sales were 2. 7 year over year but last year the 30year fixed was around 5 . Now its about 3. 8 . So we should be seeing stronger sales. Now, the big headline here though is inventory. We are at a 1. 64 million supply, that is the lowest november reading on record or since the realtors began tracking it in 1999 been that puts us at a 3. 7 month supply down from a fourmonth supply a year ago that low supply is pushing prices much higher the median existing home price 271,300, up 5. 4 year over year, and that is the highest november price once again on record the realtors saying this housing shortage will continue to keep prices up into 2020, theyre saying the market is underperforming. Back to you, david okay, thank you, diana and good thursday morning to everybody. Welcome back to squawk on the street. Im david faber along with Morgan Brennan and mike santoli. Carl and sarah have this morning off. The markets a half hour into trading we are up broadly speaking yet again, as we continue to put together a lot of very strong days. Our own map starts with President Trumps postimpeachment plans yesterdays historic vote means for your money plus an exclusive with the treasury secretary steven mnuch mnuchin. Well discuss the latest in trade as the house prepares to vote on the usmca deal later today. Stocks continuing their run higher with the nasdaq hitting a new record high and the others close to follow. How should you be playing your portfolio only a few days left in 2019 to trade we begin with the impeachment of President Trump there is more news to come as things move to the senate. Il ylan mui is in d. C reporter senator mcconnell is mounting an aggressive defense of President Trump against the two articles of impeachment, and accusing the house of conducting a slap dash investigation. The houses conduct risks a deeply damaging the institutions of American Government this particular house of representatives has let its partisan rage at this particular president create a toxic new precedent that will echo well into the future. Reporter the top democrat in the senate, Chuck Schumer s expected to speak once mcconnell is done. Schumer has been pressing gop leadership to call witnesses during a senate trial and schumer says that the gop and the white houses refusal to do so suggest they might have something to hide. So all of this back and forth is an indication that the next steps in impeachment are not clear just yet we know that schumer and House Speaker nancy pelosi will be meeting later on this morning to discuss how they plan to move forward, but right now, the house has yet to even send the articleless s of impeachment to Senate Nancy Pelosi wanted to have a clearer sense of what the rules of a trial will be before she sends those articles over so guys, right now the only thing that is clear is that the partisan divide here on capitol hill is only growing deeper. Back over to you ylan thank you. Still some suspense on capitol hill stocks meantime open slightly higher as investors digest mixed Economic Data joining us is pin coast head of Public Policy Libby Cantrell and jim paulson, strategist. Libby, good morning. The markets at an alltime high feels like investors crossed a lot of things off the worry list the last week or so, a trade deal of some sort with china, the new nafta on the way, federal budget deal even and of course we got the impeachment vote, and the market has found nothing in there to price in, in terms of policy implications or the election whats the next thing to worry about from a policy perspective . Look, i think on impeachment in particular the market has been right to be sanguine about it the market was expecting the house to impeach, expecting the senate to acquit, obviously if that doesnt happen that would be a market surprise, but one, two ways it could inform policy outcomes how does this inform President Trumps reaction function does this affect his willingness to sign that budget deal into law . Is he going to try to change the narrative around trade or immigration, things that he could pull the levers on without congress and does it have electoral implications in the house and the senate so youre right with the market has been appropriately sanguine, but it could actually have policy implications, this he may not be apparent. And the policy implications when you talk about does it affect his willingness to sign the budget, you mean his unwilling, would it make him less willing of course we saw it back in december of last year, when he was trying to change the narrative when we some personnel changes. He did not sign that government funding bill into law. So could we actually see that again . It looks unlikely, but you know, you see you dont know just dont know jim, in terms of the market, normally is trying to feed off of, its been positive as you know, pretty broad expectation that weve seen a kind of a low in the Economic Growth trend even though the numbers arent necessarily confirming that, where do you think all that stands, getting into next year in terms of being able to play a little bit of a cyclical rebound . I think the next biggest thing, mike, for the market is going to be earnings, and theyre either going to turn up here, accelerate following better information coming out of the economy across the globe of late or not. I think theyre going to accelerate and that could bring another run again, because i think theres the one negative all year has been decelerating earnings or flattish earnings trends, and if they do turn up here, lets say in the first quarter, theyre going to turn up from a sub 2 tenyear treasury from a lot lower inflation than last time they were rising, from much greater policy support for monetary and fiscal authorities, from still relatively lower valuations, and i think for a lot of portfolios that are underallocated risk assets in general, and i think if earnings turn up its the idea this recovery does have legs, and at a minimum, maybe we have to reduce our bearish bets and add a little more to cyc cyclic cyclicality. This could be another leg for 2020 i want to go back to china trade in the socalled phase one deal the Trump Administration the reason we got here with tariffs and Everything Else is because we have had several administrations over the years try and bring china to the table in terms of better trade practices and the like, and they failed in large part because china agreed to make changes and then not followed through on those changes. Whats to say that doesnt happen again coming into next year, throw the entire thing back into the, you know, back into the maelstrom of craze snins snins craziness this is a reprieve and escalation versus a grand bargain or a massive deescalation, right . Of course we have, we will still have tariffs on 250 billion of goods, 25 level, youll still have 7. 5 on 120 billion. So i think from the u. S. s perspective they still have leverage in order to enforce the china promises but in ermz it of what weve seen in the phase one deal, do we see maybe some progress on ip enforcement, maybe. Maybe some progress on forced technology transfer, maybe, but this is really not that substantive of a deal and as a result you actually havent seen that big roll back in tariffs i think the market was hoping for. A lot of the markets, a lot of the tariffs remain jim, one of the effects or a couple of the effects of the trade frictions has been perhaps to suppress bond yields. There was that kind of fear trade that has been slow to unwind, frankly, although it may be starting right now and also, just reducing the volume of global trade, so do you think theres anything in this deescalation phase that is going to allow those things to reverse in a bigger way . I think it is kind of happening partly because people see sort of a pause button i agree. Its not over. I think were going to continue to have trade wars for a generation here, and this is going to be kind of a common theme that is going to be going on for the next several years, i think, but i do think whats different looking at 2020, from 2019, what made the trade war such a big deal in my view was the Global Economy was slowing throughout the whole episode, and recession fears were spiking, and people attributed a lot to the trade war i dont think it had a lot to do with it. It was just a spurious correlation that happened at the same time. If we still have antagonism on trade, which i think is very likely yet this year, the difference will be if the Global Recovery is picking up, i think that really defuses the impact of the trade negotiations. You know, chinas pmi just went back above 50. Our market pmi in this country has gone up for three months to over 52. Were seeing german bund yields rise, a sign of activity picking up there as well and if its against a backdrop of accelerating or reviving Global Growth and i think the trade war is not going to be nearly as impactful as it was in 2019 yes, and of course, we start to anniversary those tariff levels as well so diminished statistical impact libby, jim, thank you very much. Thanks. Thanks. Cnbc out with its latest allamerica survey Steve Weisman joins us with results on how americans are viewing the economy, jobs and wages as we head into the final stretch of the Holiday Shopping season steve . Just in time for the Holiday Shopping season, American Attitudes taking a turn upward views on the economy improving you can see the percentage, saying that its fair or poor has come down by five points, and a fivepoint increase in those gauging the economy as good or excellent. 800 americans polled around the country. So thats the assessment of the current state. The expectations for the economy also improving lets start over here, percentage saying its getting worse gone down. Staying the same or within the margin of error call t but pretty noticeable improvement those saying the economy in fact will improve why is that . We dug deeper in the survey. 50 of respondents saying they expect their home price to increase thats six points better than the september swoon that we saw in the data. 49 saying their takehome pay will go up, 13 points better thats one of the highest ones weve seen since before the great recession. All of that part of the underlying sense of the stock market attitudes also going up, percentage saying its a good time to invest 66 among the financial elite, those who have 50,000 or more in stocks. 45 among the public as a whole. I will caution you or maybe advise you, each one of these peaks coincides with a peak in the stock market this may be an excellent contrarian indicator so anyway, put it all together better prospects on the economy, better prospects for jobs, home prices upping views on the stock market and we ask about spending, 20 say they will spend more 51 about the same 27 will say theyll spend less. This may not look like much this 20 number right here, but it is the highest weve had in the 13 years of the survey, and its why were over 900 in estimated spending per individual for the third time back to you guys steve, thank you. Steve liesman. When we come back were going to have an exclusive with the treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin, break down President Trumps post impeachment economic agenda as the house gets set to vote on the usmca today. Squawk on the street will be right back we just made the usmca, getting rid of nafta which i think is the worst trade deal ever very exciting. Its a great deal. Its a great deal. Unfortunately the deals been sitting with nancy pelosi for a long time. [ booing ] and what and she had a lot of pressure, especially from manufacturing ars,ea farmers, a lot of pressure to sign it demand has never been higher for what we do. Creating compelling, engaging, and informative content and experiences. With this merger, viacomcbs will be one of the largest and most influential content creators in the world. I know we can deliver on the full potential of this amazing new company. Fresh off its historic vote to have impeople President Trump lawmakers pivot their attention to trade the house is expecting bipartisan approval for the revamped nafta agreement called the usmca. Joining us for more is the u. S. Treasury secretary steven ma chew chin. Secretary, always good to see you. Does anything change for your economic agenda, given that the president has been impeached first of all its great to be here with you, and the answer is absolutely no. Its been a terrific end of the year for the president s economic programs. Were looking forward to usmca being passed today the china phase one agreement, and the president s approval and passage of the appropriations bill which is very important to our military, and has lots of important policy wins for the president. Yes, it was an interesting end here, as impeachment went on we actually seemed to get some bipartisan work done by the congress were you sursurprised . No, i wasnt. The impeachment is really a partisan issue and you know, these are very important Economic Issues that have bipartisan support that are going to be terrific for our workers and our companies, and this is just, this is what the president has been delivering on the economy, and we look forward to all these yearend wins lets talk a bit about well talk usmca but china certainly perhaps more important in the greater scheme of things. You spent so much time on it we got the phase one deal. Some are questioning, mr. Secretary, the specifics when it comes to the purchases that will be made by the chinese for example, the adding of 100 billion to 186 billion total for the two years. We have to ramp up imports or exports to china dramatically to a level weve never seen what gives you the confidence that that is going to be something that happens and that the chinese are going to stick with well, let me comment on that, but let me just first comment on am bbassador lighthauser did an incredible job its protection to intellectual property, structural issues for our agricultural community, the opening of financial services, a currency chapter that will maintain fair currencies and for the First Time Ever an enforcement chapter, so this is really the important part of it. Now, on purchases, you know, from the first time President Trump and president xi met at maralago, both agreed the objective was to rebalance the trading relationship i think as you know our markets have been very open to them, and their markets have not been open to us, and in a big component of the agreement was opening of those markets and commitments, and in the case of agriculture, thats going to be a doubling of the size of agricultural purchases, and i think our farmers will be able to deliver. And you do, so 186 billion is what u. S. Exports of goods and services to china were in 2017 under this new agreement, it would have to be about 200 billion more than that thats the number thaw think we can successfully get to . I do. Its going to be over a twoyear period of time, but theyre already in the market in agriculture today, and weve been working with industry so this isnt something that just occurred overnight the signing will occur in the beginning of january, but weve been working with u. S. Industry to make sure they can take advantage of these new intellectual property protections, and the opening of the china markets. Yes, which obviously so many people had been focused on, as you point out, far beyond the numbers. Youre confident this thing is going to get signed in early january . Im very confident, so its just going through what i would consider to be a technical legal scrub and well be releasing the document and signing it in the beginning of january mr. Secretary, i want to go back to the structural promises or structural changes that are going to be a part of this phase one deal i realize that everything still being put down to paper and translated right now can you give us some specific examples of what that will look like, and also, when you talk about an enforcement mechanism, what the details of that will be sure, well let me just comment. Its already on paper and its already translated, so this is going through what i consider to be a technical review of the translation. Its not that its open to renegotiation or that there are any open issues. The enforcement chapter is one of the critical parts to this agreement. For the first time we have binding enforcement. There will be a mechanism as weve described in both countries that as there are issues, they will be elevated. There will be teams of people in both countries that first will try to resolve these issues, but if for whatever reason they cant be resolved, the president maintains the authority to put tariffs on to enforce the agreeme agreement. What needs to be seen in terms of enforcement in china carrying through on its promises for phase two to start being worked out well i think our priority for the moment is to implement phase one, but we are prepared to work hard on phase two. So you know, again, our First Priority is phase one. This is an enormous opportunity for u. S. Companies, and for the first time to have an enforceable agreement with china as i said, ambassador lieithause did an outstanding job during the negotiations dSpeaker Pelosi has been positive about the terms that were set in the final version here are you okay with that, this idea Speaker Pelosi feels this is a win for the priorities she set out there and what do you think will be the tangible economic benefits were going to see . You think well get in excess of 50 basis points of additional growth in gdp as a result of this agreement people say nafta 2. 0 dont understand the technicalities of the agreement. It brings the trading relationship into the modern erap as important as china is, this is our largest trading bloc and incredibly important to u. S. Workers and u. S. Workers and this addresses everything from enabling Small Businesses to be able to compete more fairly to expanding our agricultural opportunity and opening markets, to protecting digital trade, which is a big focus of the u. S. Financial services, protecting there will not be data localization in any of these countries. Thats a very important issue for us around the world, that data can reside in the world and be protected, but you know, this is a very, very detailed agreement that ambassador lighthizer has led an Interagency Team that almost impacted every single one of our agencies mr. Secretary, you just mentioned the digital trade component of the usmca we had so many conversations about rules of the road, where digital services, digital ecommerce, et cetera, are concerned, what the regulations should be, digital taxes that are now being passed through in search countries arched the world as well. Could the component here, the outline here become a template for other trade deals . Absolutely. This trade agreement is going to be the model of what we use going forward, in many of the chapters, and a lot of the currency provisions that we developed in usmca were put into the china trade deal, so thats one of the examples. Mr. Secretary, you just made a prediction that the usmca might have as much as 50 basis points in Economic Growth. I wanted to come back to some other predictions youve made in the fall of 2017, as you were championing the tax bill, which would eventually pass. You said it would cut the deficit by about 1 trillion that hasnt happened the budget deficit was 665 billion in 2017. Its now 984 billion. Are you concerned at all about the budget deficit, which has continued to go up significantly, despite your promises to the contrary well, im glad you brought that up, because i want to clarify this, because i think its important for people to understand so my comment on the tax bill i stand behind, and when i said that it would cut the deficit by 1 trillion, thats over a tenyear period of time. I never expected it would have any issues in year one or year two, quite the contrary. There were many economic parts of the bill that incentivized the expensing of depreciation and investment that cost us revenues in the beginning, but we recouped those revenues in years four to ten. So actually if you look at our receipts for this year, were right on our projections, and if we look at both the actuals for two years, and our interagency, our troika projections with omb for revenues for the next eight years, were still on track for that so im glad i had an opportunity to clarify it. As it relates tothe budget deficit for this year, that had nothing to do with the tax act that had more to do with the fact that we increased government spending, and i think you know defense spending has been a major priority for the president , with all the issues around the world it is absolutely important that we have the best military and by the way, in this holiday season, i especially want to reach out and thank all of the military people and for their commitment to what theyre doing, and to get those military increases, the democrats required nonmilitary increases so thats really the reason why the budget deficit has gone up. I am comfortable with these levels, but theres no question over time we need to be growing the economy and decreasing the budget deficits. Yes, and obviously we understand as a percent of the economy its not as high as its been in other times but as a dollar number of course it is something we havent seen in quite some time. Are you confident that youre getting the revenues you expected from corporations there are some reports that say the average tax rate is Something Like 11 on profits, which is far below the stated level of roughly 21 i am highly confident as i said, were tracking almost exactly as we predicted but again, if a business invests 100 million in new capital, they have the ability to write that off in year one, and what thats going to do is lower their tax rate in year one to incentivize them to invest in capital but it will raise their tax rates in years four, five, six through ten. So again, this is performing exactly as weve modeled mr. Ecretary, before we let you go, the dollar certainly the dollar index has come off a little bit in recent weeks, but is it still too strong well, im not going to make a comment if its too strong or not too strong you know, when i sneeze and talk about the dollar, it tends to have impacts on the market but what i will comment on is, i do think the strength of the dollar is a sign of the strength of the u. S. Economy, and the dollar is the reserve currency of the world. Its the safe haven, particularly as you see europe slowing down, china slowing down theres more and more investment coming into the u. S. , in a greater desire to hold dollars, and i think as you know, despite all these Digital Payments are u. S. Currency, the physical currency, is at an alltime high and you know, banks are holding a lot of dollars in vaults, because with negative Interest Rates in europe, people dont want to hold european currencies secretary, we have to leave it there, were told, but always appreciate your taking some time and joining us thank you. Thank you very much secretary of the treasury, Steven Mnuchin when we come back, its the last democratic debate of the year with Vice President biden and senators warren and sanders set to battle it out in los angeles. Well tell you what to expect with the race to the white house heating up when squawk on the street returns. Im going to the ball. Tonight is a magical night. Anything is possible. I love it. It is time now for our etf spot light, taking a look at the spdr retail etf, ticker xrt, on pace for its third positive day in a row, up about a third of 1 on the day, equal weighted etf so pretty broad although it doesnt get the influence of amazon and home depot as much. Nike set to post earnings after the bell final Quarterly Report before mark parker hands the ceo reins over stock is down 50. 75 . Shares up almost 35 yeartodate seven president ial candidates gathering in los angeles tonight for the last democratic debate of the year. Jane wells is live from Loyola Marymount university with more jane reporter hey, morgan theyve just finished a police sweep inside well go inside shortly after this i was going through my old news mementos and found this. This is my press pass to the impeachment trial of president clinton 20 years ago how much of the new impeachment will they be talking about tonight and how much will they talk about the candidate who is not here this guy spends his time tweeting this guy gets things done. Reporter Michael Bloomberg technically did not qualify for the debate because he didnt meet the threshold for individual donors but who needs donors when youre worth 55 billion. National polling joe biden has an eightpoint lead. Bernie sanders has been leading here in california and bloomberg is currently back in fifth place. Hes not the only one not on stage tonight. Cory booker didnt qualify hes led an effort to change the rules. Tulsi gabbert chose not to participate. Shes also the only democrat last night to vote present at impeachment or the only person at all to vote present only and looking at iowa, which was less than seven weeks away Pete Buttigieg leading overall. Bernie sanders has won the latest individual poll and you can see bloomberg has some work to do in iowa, even if he actually chooses to go or wait until later. It is a threehour tour tonight, a threehour debate and only one californian on stage, guys, tom steyer back to you. Okay, jane, i love when she goes into the archives there who knows what else shes got in the archives jane wells, thank you. Lets send it over to sue herrera with a cnbc news update. Good morning, everyone. Here is whats happening at this hour rush president Vladimir Putin says he expects President Trump to remain in Office Despite the house voting to impeach him, calling the allegations against trump made up. The russian leader made the comments during his annual end of the year news conference. Republican congressman mark meadows a top ally to President Trump says he will not seek reelection. In a statement, the North Carolina congressman says he struggled with the decision, and came to it after a discussion with his family. Queen elizabeth formerly opened a new session of Britains Parliament with a speech, giving the first concrete details of what Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to do with his commanding house of commons majority my governments priority is to deliver the united kingdoms departure from the European Union on the 31st of january my minister also bring forward legislation to ensure the united kingdoms exit on that date, and to make the most of the opportunities this brings for all people of the united kingdom. You are up to date. Thats the news update this hour ill send it back downtown to you, mike. Sue, thank you very much. As we go to a break, take a look at the top stocks in the nasdaq 100 index, with the Overall Index hitting at new record high this morning micron among the leaders after reporting results last night well be speaking with the ceo exclusively in the next hour on quarter for the company. More squawk on the street when we return. Introducing ingarage delivery, just in time for the holidays beep, beep wwrrrr beep, beep ssshhhh beep, beep errrrr bading shlrrrp bark, bark beep, beep sshhh shrrrp ding crrrnch, crrrnch beep boop errrr hey get free ingarage delivery from key by amazon when you connect your myq app or get the universal smart garage hub, now just 29. 98. The market is moving higher again, continuing its record run, the s p on pace for its best year since 2013 what should investors be expecting more room to run in 20 bob pisani caught up with art cashin with his annual predictions for 2020 and art and i, mike, have been doing this for more than 15 years. Art tends to focus on the fed and the markets but on rare occasions he focuses on the ripple effects of politics on the markets as he has done now in his 2020 predictions. Here with art cashin at bobby vans steakhouse to chat about whats ahead in 2020 his first prediction despite a strong u. S. Economy, there will be no fed rate hikes in 2020 absolutely no rate hike, because i think the fed is somewhat intimidated by the market, and the market, if anything, thinks the fed is ahead of itself on higher rates. Prediction two, the market win streak will continue the broader indexes will all be up in 2020 eight out of nine times that weve had an up year like we had this year, its followed by another decent up year, not quite as strong, but notably strong and so ill go with history. Reporter prediction three . Stocks may be up but there will be several periods of volatility, particularly in january, march and july. In late january, well get to see if theres going to be a brexit, now that johnson got a sweeping move in parliament. And will he, in fact, push through a no deal brexit that could make the markets very volatile and jumpy the next thing will be the u. S. Election and that will only be a contributor to volatility, when we begin to get a handle on who the democratic nominee will be so that to me gives two yardsticks number one, early march, when we will get super tuesday, and onethird of the u. S. Populous will vote, and well get to find out where bloombergs strategy is, who looks to be the leader, has anybody locked it up if not, then it could be a brokered convention, and that date would be in the middle of july, when the convention would be as to 2019, cashin continued his string of reasonably accurate predictions, so for example, his firstprediction for this year, no fed rate hikes, that was correct. Second, a final china deal on trade and tariffs would not happen, not be signed by the end of this year, right again. He did have a miss, however, stocks would be flat in 2019 he said after being down in the first half of the year, the s p as everybody knows, up about 28 this year, its best year since 2013, two out of three isnt that bad the miss on the market was arts Biggest Surprise last year, when i asked him, that stock market resiliency, art thought the fed was stepping out of qe and while he didnt think they would hike, he thought they would stay flat but they did as you know restart call it quausiqe after getting concerned about the re po issue. The effect of unintended consequences cut rates three times, not only did they not raise. You had a lot of things hit the market that were not expecting. The environment 2019 predictions december of last year we were melting down october 11th, the fed announced whatever you want to call it, quasiqe, the markets responded to that very clearly and weve been essentially straight up. Hes right, there was clearly an influence from the quasiqe or whatever we want to call it, just dont call it qe, as the fed likes to keep reminding us, thats why i get emails. Its not qe. Its Something Else some liquidity event we dont want to call it qe okay, we dont call it qe i didnt call it qe you just did, though. No, i didnt. Youre getting an email all right uhoh. Bob, thank you as we head to break, take a look at shares of iac and match, announcing plans to spin off all of its ownership much the Online Dating Company Transaction expected to be tax free as a spinoff and two companies do expect to complete it in the Second Quarter of next year, shares of match up nearly 80 so far this year you get a 3 dividend back at sending back to iac. Remember it also will be one share, one vote at match, it will be able to go on the indexes, as well might even be a potential takeover candidate both stocks benefiting strongly from that announcement this morning. Most people think of verizon as a reliable phone company. But to businesses, were a reliable partner. We Keep Companies ready for whats next. man we weave security into their business. second man virtualize their operations. woman and build ai customer experiences. second woman we also keep them ready for the next big opportunity. Like 5g. Almost all of the fortune 500 partner with us. woman when it comes to digital transformation. Verizon keeps business ready. After blowout years of wall street bears on 2020, go to tradingnation. Cnbc. Com, more squawk on the street coming up next welcome back to squawk on the street. s Rick Santelli, welcome been welcome Professor William bowder Columbia University professor, former special economic adviser to citigroup and the part i like the best from 97 to 2000 he was part of the Monetary Policy committee of the bank of england. Wilhelm, treasury secretary mnuchin talking about debt everybody is worried about debt he said his tax plan passed and the subtext to it like expensing over a tenyear rise, will lower the deficit and spending is still coming in good with tax collections. Your thoughts . Well, the federal government is adding close to 1 trillion a year to the national debt, that is excessive and of course for concern. It means should there ever be an economic case for a cyclical stimulus during a slowdown which will come at some point the federal government is illpositioned to provide the stimulus in furthering the markets. I think hes being a bit casual about the underlying unsustainability of the federal debt willem, i understand what youre saying and most of it i agree with, but your alternative is what youre worried about is that down the road when you want to do a helicopter and drop money out of the sky, you think thats a good thing. Yes, indeed under the right circumstances. When there are no inflationary pressures, as there arent in the u. S. Today, despite secularly low unemployment rate, the appropriate response to a fiscal stimulus should one be needed for the cyclical reasons is to monetize it, to engage in helicopter money, to use the popular expression so youre believing monetizing for our audience, you want them to do the qe thing, which they are doing now, and you agree by not calling it qe that isnt a bad thing because they just need to do it. It is qe. Theyre expanding the balance. At the moment it is inappropriate because there is no Counter Cyclical reason, theres no cyclical weakness but should a Counter Cyclical stimless be required then funding it not in the market but by selling the debt to the fed is the right thing to do listen we dont have much time quickly, quarter point back to zero, i dont think youre a fan of negative rates. They do a good thing should bank of japan and ecb pay attention. Final thoughts i think its probably premature. The economy there seems to be slowing down again so i think they will be back in negative territory before long but they clearly are unhappy about a political and economic consequence of negative rates and trying are to get rid of it as quick as you can. Excellent willem, great discussion i enjoyed it. Discussion thank you for joining me mike santoli, back to you. Rick, thank you very much we watch the market hit highs of the day, the dow clicked to a new record high as we speak, 28,333 lets send it to jon fortt with a look at whats coming up on squawk alley. Hi, jon. Hi, mike. Not just the dow, micron had a big year, despite significant head winds, up 2. 5 . We have the ceo join us on sawaly. Quk le each day our planet awakens with signs of opportunity. But with opportunity comes risk. And to manage this risk, the world turns to cme group. We help farmers lock in future prices, banks manage Interest Rate changes and airlines hedge fuel costs. All so they can manage their risks and move forward. Its simply a matter of following the signs. They all lead here. Cme group how the world advances. Breaking all the usual rules of real estate, attracting the super rich with nearly no marketing. Robert frank joins us on set he has more. Not about 15 cpw any more. No. This is the new it building. Theres always one in new york always something new with this one, didnt buy a single advertisement, list a single apartment, have a sales office, release a single public photo. 220 central park south, the super tower off central park is home to half the top 20 sales in new york city this year. No other building has ever accounted for such a large share of top sales in a single year. The largest deal is most recently the purchase of penthouse for 93 million. 9800 square feet his Main Residence is in florida. That follows ken griffins 238 million purchase of four floors of the building. Thats the most expensive home sold in america. New neighbors include sting and his wife, paid 66 million for a penthouse. Eric smith, a california hardware magnet paid 61 million for a five bedroom and brazilian cement heiress bought one for 30 million by the time the last units sell out, the building total expected to top 3 billion. What makes 220 so valuable it is right off central park, designed by robert stern, 82 foot saltwater pool, a basketball contract, gym, library, salon, Screening Room giant candy wall, private restaurant just for the residents thats run by the great john george. If youre not a billionaire, you can rent a three bedroom offered for 59,000 a month. A relative bargain. I would assume danny ock and griffin watched closely by tax authorities in new york, seeing how much time they spend there, given he has a residence in florida. In florida. We should say these prices, these buildings work in weird ways you sign the contract when the building starts, close when theyre done these contracts were signed three years ago. Some prices are relic of a previous market, but even more recent sales have not been discounted. Robert, that picture there is Central Park Tower, towering behind it. Thats almost, i dont know, one of the tallest in the western hemisphere. 132 stories. Thats gary barnett whats going on there . The success here, it is interesting when that may not have nearly the success. Thats right. Where the nordstroms is gary barnett and steve roth had a battle over the property itself Central Park Tower is in the process of being sold. I am told sales are not going well part of it because you look out the window of Central Park Tower and see 220. Unless youre above floor 80 or something. This 220 is about 70 stories Central Park Tower over 130. It is crazy sting was at 15 cpw. Many residents are moving from that building theyre shuffling along central park they follow each other. You know how the people are. We want to stay away from it. Robert, thank you. When we come back, exclusive with the ceo of micron, talk about the earnings beat. Stock up more than 70 so far this year and up again today squawk alley is up next. It is 9 00 a. M. In boise oid ho idaho, 11 00 a. M. On wall street squawk alley is live