Sector of the year and the decade the Investment Committee is ready to go, Halftime Report starts right now welcome, good to have you with us on this friday our Investment Committee today, joe, jack, steve and liz, director of Market Strategy and margaret reed, senior Portfolio Manager with union bank. Lets begin with the jobs blowout, the reaction in the stock market perhaps the belief is that we can have the yearend rally after all. This says to me phase one. You just need the economy to keep humming. If we can have it, we are having it. And i think like the biggest lesson of 2019 is the industrial data is just so misleading and so unimportant for people to obsess over. But a lot of the Economic Data points that we traditionally Pay Attention to, they come from the 1950s, the 60s, the 70s. The economy has changed and its become more globalized and consumer centric i cannot stress enough how important it is to look at price versus listen to economic opinions if you listen to opinions all year, you are back and forth, whip sawed if you just followed price, you stayed in. There was no sign to get out look at the dow, s p and nasdaq today, all three within one percent of a high. Huge monster day for retail names, up 2. 5 take a look at the xlf breaking out hard the banks are now just 2 below their alltime high from may of 2007 that is an extraordinary comeback this is the last sector within the s p to make record highs were still below 12 years ago, russell 2000, new 52week high looks extraordinary. This is the highest level for small caps since october of 2018 then you look single stock jpmorgan, look at apple, google making new highs the xlp is busting loose everywhere you look, industrials, energy, fresh 52week highs, fresh alltime highs. If youre paying attention to that and youre not listening to economists who are focused on data points from the 1960s, youre probably in really good shape this year. Liz, phase one, doesnt matter as long as the economy is good, consumer remains strong, jobs report was a blowout and the market loves it. I think to follow onto joshs comments, we are in a psychological recovery here. So the recession that we all saw coming all year never happened and here we are kind of recovering from that on an emotional level so people are okay with buying we get a data point on jobs, which is important for the consumer and has been driving us this whole time, but its creating a friendly environment going into the end of the year and into 2020 for some of the sectors that can now come up, like small cap and cyclicles and european equities. December got off to a rocky start. This is just what the doctor ordered if youre figuring you can have a yearend run. Yes because it was in real doubt. Yeah, before you get this number today and you start feeling pretty good. I think the only thing that really put knit doubt was trade. So trade hangs over the market and we just dont know whats going to happen. So its been a great market to hold onto, but thats true of every market since the beginning of time. Hold it through the ups and downs. Its also a great market to trade because you had events like trump coming out and being negative on trade talks, stocks trade down and then you have december 15th. So you have to sort of read the tea leaves, which is very difficult to do, and that creates volatility. Why do we continue to Pay Attention on every trade up and down the market thhas told you this year im saying your Core Portfolio stays investing, but you can make money very few people can do that the s p is up 2. 5 right now from tuesday mornings low and remember what we were talking about tuesday morning. No trade deal until 2020, no trade deal until the election. The market did not even give you a chance to blink. So i agree with you theres been trading opportunities. I just dont think that most people who have a day job and are not sitting in front of their machine all day, theres just no reason they can do that. I agree what im wondering, call me when theres a deal. Otherwise, the economy is good, consumer and strong and market is going up. But im in front of my machine all day. Let me give you a couple of examples i bought this morning i wasnt focused on the employment number, but i added to baba and united rental and federal express. Fedex got up to 160 and traded down to 150. I think 160 is cheap for the company, so why shouldnt i buy it ill sell the positions before the end of today because who knows what hell tweet about ill keep my core positions. Its a great lesson in what weve talked about all year. If you Pay Attention to every tweet and you Pay Attention to every market move as a result of a tweet or a comment, you miss the bigger picture, the forest through the trees that the economy is good. Agreed. Im just saying that if you are a professional and if you have a sense for things, if you have a valuation commitment and confidence in the names that you own in your portfolio, you trade around and make additional return. I would certainly echo and corroborate many of the comments already made here on the economy. I think what is very important is the continuation of this strong job market, because it really pushes against what the bond market was trying to tell us over the summer, that we were headed into a recession. And yet every data point since that time in august when the tenyear made its low on the year demonstrates the market can continue as long as the economy continues and the bleeding thats happening in the manufacturing side of the economy is not yet impacting the strength of the consumer. I thought today was so overwhelmingly positive relating to the consumer. This was a consumer story. Josh began the show talking about the confusion in the industrial economic numbers on monday, not only did we have the tweet and the actions with the tariffs with argentina and brazil from the president , but you also have manufacturing that suggested a lot of the weakness in manufacturing that we thought was beginning to recover well, it actually was not recovering so i think the consumer is leading the charge here going forward. I agree with your comments initially, where youre suggesting through 2020 this stays with us. And i would almost stay at this point, why do we need even a deal if you have such strength from the consumer . Thats the whole point. Let me just finish first. Theres been a misdirection and i kind of fell a little bit for it on monday i said i felt something had changed. Really what has changed when i reflect back on it is that if youre going to have this continued consumer strength domestically here in the united states, then i think as an investor its just a complete side show whats going on with the u. S. And the chinese. The reality is that nothing has changed. And dont even Pay Attention to it, and it is going to stay with us through 2020. We cant suggest, though, that december 15th doesnt matter at all on the additional tariffs, right i dont think a deal matters as much as the tariff conversation matters so the market and it depends on what is market is priced in because thats how the market moves. So the market has priced in the expectation of some sort of deal and the market has priced in the expectation that we push the december 15th tariffs back if those go on as scheduled and dont get rolled back shortly thereafter, thats going to be a bad reaction i dont expect that theyll go on and stay on i actually dont expect that theyll go on at all but either way, its about tariffs more than it is about a deal and i want to go back to the shortterm trading piece of this a lot of this, including election conversations into 2020, might be marketmoving events, theyre not allocationmoving events and thats important for people to remember. Just to put it all out there, the facts are that if you stay invested in the market going back five years, ten years, youre always going to recover so strategists dont necessarily make any money, economists definitely dont make any money. So i think that you just have to bear through it. When you generate the additional alpha is taking advantage of volatility. Its been such a brilliant couple of years since President Trump was elected in terms of the stock market, though so unconventional in many respects, that its thrown investors for a loop and the way that the market trades now versus the way it traded 10 to 20 years ago, the market reacts to various headlines and tweets and this, that and the other thing if you just cut through all that noise for lack of something i dont want to say on television, youre okay. You bring up a good point, the way we traded 10 or 20 years ago. Versus 15 years ago, you have half the number of publicly traded equities, so you can argue theres a Scarcity Effect and when money trades the market, there are less names to go to so its going to raise them i think the danger is being sucked into priceand being lulled into this false sense of security that the december 15th deadline doesnt matter. So we dont need a deal. But if we get negative commentary right, right. But it impacts the market and again thats where shortterm, not longterm. And youre going to have a series of missteps throughout the upcoming 11 months. Thats my point, trading. If youre a professional sitting in front of the screen, do it. If not, you shouldnt be looking at your portfolio anyway. I want to go back to what josh sort of left off in talking about what really is a story of the breadth of the rally retail on pace for its best day since september. Small caps a new high, a 52week High Health Care up 11 in the quarter, best quarter since 18. Financials a tenyear high staples record close the list goes on and on. Josh mentioned alphabet and apple as well. Can we talk about health care breaking out today and energy, which has big filings and hedge funds, Value Investors plowing into Energy Stocks in the third quarter. Probably continues these are the two worstperforming sectors of the year, and all of a sudden catching a bid and seeing new 52week highs. These are stocks that all year have been completely ignored getting traction in sectors like this that really have nothing to do you know, the health care trade has nothing to do with the trade war whatsoever seeing strength come into these stocks, its not a vote of confidence that china and trump are going to sign a deal these are stocks with secular growth that have been left behind and now theyre rocking and rolling. I think its important to look at the breadth and understand this is not what market tops look like. Youre not seeing money that is coming out of other Asset Classes or Investment Grade or high yield down. Youre seeing a little bit of a rotation in the equity names as it relates to bond proxies the bond proxy trade is not as hot right now. Money is leaving and going into financials and health care but again, i think you have to continue to focus on the u. S. Consumer and companies that are selling to the u. S. Consumer or retaining Pricing Power in relation to the consumer a name i bought today is capital one. Thats a Consumer Finance name that combines the strength of the consumer, steepening of the yield curve, more of a focus on credit cards, which is less risky than the mortgage lending and its got a fortress and its a great name. Just one point here that i think is very critical looking into next year, is the extent that the market, yes, its great that we have this breadth and great job number but the one thing that is not corroborated the multiple expansion of the market has been earnings so i think what is very critical at this point is theres a bottoming process of negative earnings revision for s p earnings going into next year, some segments of the market, industrials, basic materials, energy, all expect to be north of 10 Earnings Growth next year and that seems a little bit of a high hurdle. So i think there needs to be some calibration on the earnings number next year and stabilization in that for this multiple expansion thats happened in the market to be sustainable. Thats a great point and i wanted to have the conversation, what drove the market this far, multiple expansion and whether Earnings Growth in you know, you still have the trade issue out there. Im not saying its not having any impact on the economy. It clearly is having some impact can you get enough Earnings Growth to carry the market higher next year i think its directional. How much do you need . 5 Earnings Growth, is that enough markets are always directional. They dont focus on a single point but where is the next point. A Company Comes out and thep miss because they lowered their guidance going forward. Real quick, when i asked that question did you say no . Yeah, longterm earnings because look at where we were able to get to basically at record highs with negative Earnings Growth or no Earnings Growth. But on the heels of a year where the comps were double digits and three times regular averages so average earnings are up on the s p is about 6. 25 , 6. 5 right now broadly for the index its estimated to be 8 next year that will probably come down as we move closer i think anything at average or slightly above is good the issue is that this Year Companies were able to overpromise and underdeliver. We dont have as much of a tail wind from trade. Its just kind of bakedin that we have a deal so the market is going to have to look at fundamentals. We had Earnings Growth of 23 in 2018 and an s p that finished the year down 4. 8 there is absolutely zero linear relationship between the amount of Earnings Growth within one calendar year and what the stock market does. It doesnt exist you can look back to 1926. Theres no such thing. The key is last year you were lapping one of the biggest tax reform packages in the history of the country of course throughout the last year of 2019 its been harder to grow youre growing against the toughest comps youve ever seen. Companies have their corporate rates slashed to a degree that weve never seen so people that look at the Earnings Growth quote, unquote, disappointment this year its all relative. Its versus last year. You didnt have a second tax stimulus this year let it go. Now i like the setup now everyone is saying its all multiple expansion, theres no earnings you know what . This is an easier year to lap. So talk to me next year and well see if were still talking about Earnings Growth. Interest rates, earnings didnt matter because the market was still down last year that was a big function of our Interest Rates, liquidity. Flip that 180 degrees this year with Interest Rates down still 100 basis points or so, that creates a liquidity condition that makes the multiple in the stock market not as rich as it once was. I think its about where guidance is, we talk about when the earnings come out, its what was looked at before if you recall, we came down. We were looking at upper earnings and then came down. And once it reset to no Earnings Growth, then the market took off and said lets go forward. We talk about the u. S. Economy being 70 consumer led, like that so unusual. I looked at the World Bank Numbers and most developed countries are 50 to 60 theyre not so much less than we are, but yet theyre having issues japan, 150 billion stimulus plan they Just Announced why . Because things are slowing down. We always talk about it in the context of if the manufacturing economy is having real issues, theres an overwhelmingly larger amount that needs to fall on the shoulders of the consumer to keep everything going. You dont have the manufacturing backdrop performing gangbusters, so you need the consumer more than ever in this market to continue to perform. But you havent had that for a while. The good news is the contribution of earnings coming from the Manufacturing Sector is not large and shrinking every year has been since the 1970s and while it would be great to see this huge renaissance in u. S. Manufacturing, its unlikely, and i dont think anyone outside of washington is saying that they really expect that i dont think wall street is expecting that so we take the earnings contribution where we can get it and we take the market cap where we can get it. So the market cap is in tech, Consumer Discretionary and financials, and then the next tier down, yeah, you have industrials. But they just dont contribute as much overall. Now, theyre important for employment we all agree and theyre important for the mental psyche of workers in this country. And we want to see that improve. And the best shot that those things have of improving is for this continued low and slow recovery to go into yet another year hopefully thats the case. I think corporate spending, they have to be far more confident than they have previously look at the economic numbers if youre sitting in the csuite. Dont concern yourself with whats going on with the u. S. And chinese and tensions and pulling back on cap x. Focus on the Strong Economy and consumer be willing to go out there, increase dividends, buy back stock and do capital expenditures. If your costs are going to go up 30 if they increase tariffs, how does somebody sit in the csuite and ignore that . Thats real money. Because you have the ability to absorb it and obviously in this economy right now how do you absorb it . The economy is absorbing it right now. Thats the evidence. Its clear that it is. Im not so sure thats the broad Evidence Companies arent talking about it because its political. Lets focus on positioning. And not just shortterm between now and the end of the year, although if you have ideas on what you think is possible, by all means let me know. But more forwardthinking, liz, into 2020, where do you in light of our conversation, now want to be positioned . I still think you should be in cyclicles and growth. Im exhausted with the conversation with value and growth and the rotation thats supposed to be coming. I think its been supposed to be coming for about ten years i dont know that anybody can really with confidence make the argument that if value is going to outperform, that means that financials are going to outperform tech. I dont know that i can feel good about that. If we ged a trade deal tech is still going to be positioned well you also have to have diversification. Were going into an Election Year and there might be market moving, but not allocation make sure your allocation is ready for the chops, maybe in march on super tuesday and in june when we get a nomination. What about Small Company versus large cap theres a huge conversation about whether small caps yes, theyve had a great run. Even though theyve had a run, theyre still a fair amount below their alltime high. Is that still a runway thats worthy of flying on . We are currently neutral small cap versus large cap one of our concerns on small is valuation is more attractive than it once was, but it is more levered versus large cap stocks. Theres a lot more companies that make no profits, a lot more Energy Exposure, for example Brian Sullivan mentioning how much debt is in the e and p segment, particularly for Small Cap Companies and the amount of debt coming in that space in the next few years so i would say great that small cap has had this recovery, but we still stick with large cap and the highquality companies. So rbc and jeffries both have notes upgrading small caps, but then i was glancing back at the sectors that i told all of you were either hitting new highs, whether its 52week or alltime what is the one sector that you would be worried if you think that were going to have a robust economy in 2020, stock market is going to do well, you know, the fed may be on hold but still have the wind at your back is it staples . Staples on pace for a record close. So historically how does that work in that environment . Because historically you would say if were going to have a better economy next year and were going to get leadership, i would say like historically that would make sense, lighten up utilities and lighten up Consumer Staples, lighten up on verizon and stuff like that. The reason why thats not just a kneejerk nobrainer anymore is because the Consumer Staples companies, they dont look at themselves as were dividend stocks theyre selling all over the world. So if the consumer gets better not just in the u. S. , but all over the world, they see that as a tail wind in just the same way that apple does. So i dont know that thats such a nobrainer easy trade. One more point about small caps, its not about the size of the market cap that matters. Its a sector bet. 20 of the russell is little banks and little finance companies and then you have this Energy Exposure and you also have biotechnology exposure. And i think financials are the reason, and actually if you look at Financial Sector like the russell 1000 Financial Sector and compared it to the russell 2000, you do see more correlation over the last ten years. So its probably not an accident that the xlf is a couple percent below its alltime high and about to break out and the russell looks good, too. Margaret, back to the staples. I disagree with josh, many of those companies, coke, add Procter Gamble into this, assuming that we have a flat dollar, many of these companies are growing underlying earnings doubt digits and if were comparing against an s p that maybe makes 5 growth next year, were looking at companies that can have outsize Earnings Growth relative to the market, outsize Dividend Income and yield, because even if Interest Rates go up to 2. 5, theres still a delta to be made for my clients that are looking for more income because theyre still in a big hole when it comes to generating the income longterm. I would be worried about the proxies and utilities, i think that some of the staples, the ones youre talking about, can still show the growth and do okay and their yields arent that outsized. But companies that are yielding like 4 or 5 or 6 , that are so much above, those yields should be a little bit higher in my view, because there is no growth and the only reason they lowered is because you had so much capital come in. If they havent participated in the move up in the market. Tower stocks are down a little bit or flat. Interest rates have gone up thats why. Thats what im saying. Lets take a quick break. Here is what else is coming up on the Halftime Report. Announcer energy, the worstperforming sector of the year but the top gainer this month. And Conoco Phillips getting a bullish nod today. Theres a big week ahead for halftime monday and tuesday well be live from San Francisco our lineup includes former twitter ceo, former twitter coo and investor and snowflake ceo you dont want to miss it. Starting monday at noon eastern. The Halftime Report is back in two minutes. Ive been a caregiver for 20 years. No two patients are the same. Predicting the next step for them can be challenging. Today were using the ibm cloud to run new analytics tools that help us better predict and plan a patients recovery. Ultimately, its helping thousands of patients return home. And who doesnt love going home. Im Brian Sullivan at the headquarters in austria. A twoday meeting wrapping up. If you are an investor in oil and gas stocks, up 3 the last time i checked, you are having a rare good day. Oil is up. Why is that . Coming in we didnt expect much from this meeting, but opec overdelivered. They came in with a 1. 2 million barrel per day they added 500,000 to that and the saudis put a Little Cherry on top of the oil sunday by saying they will also produce 400,000 barrels a day less as they had been. A lot of math and numbers. The bottom line is the market effectively got a cut of 2 to 2. 1 barrels a day and the Energy Stocks like it brian, thank you. Brian sullivan in vienna the opec Meeting Energy standing out this year as the worstperforming sector, but mkm partners does see value in one name, cononco phillips they side core growth and value drivers over the next several years. Weve made it our call of the day. Anybody like cop. I do. I had some time spent with brian lance the other day talking about the tenyear plan theyve outlined, taking cash flow from 3 billion to 7 billion, less focused on acquisitions. Obviously we keep going back to the oxy deal and that has not worked out with oxy. But focusing on alaska and europe and on those markets, trying to grow production there at least 5 is a great Capital Allocation story and it is not just do you own the stock . I do not. It is mkm. Guess he wasnt that convincing. It is mkm that is initiating with the 72 price target here, but there are many other analysts that like the stock universally. This is one of themore desired energy names. I like the chart, so i dont know as much about the company specifically broadly speaking, i think a lot of these energy names have bottomed and i think conoco exemplifies that you look at the price action between august and october low, the october low was a higher low. Buyers came in where they had to now youre looking at a level like 61, 62. Im not going to say its a moment of truth, but i think if it gets above, there are probably very few people left that havent sold the stock that want to sell it. Sometimes thats all you need. To high quality name setting up nicely im not in it yet, but this is exactly the type of stock i would buy on a breakout. Margaret, what do you like . I definitely agree with the call for conono, youre seeing more of a rally trade today on energy given the opec cut. But we would highlight sun core, which is again another highquality name. They just put out or capex guidance earlier this week and with their 4 dividend now with Oil Prices Going down to 50 or 55, they can still generate excess cash and grow the dividend next year. Is there going to be a rebound in energy . I dont think were going to see anything meaningful. Energy is supply and demand and kprats on a completely different cycle. Its much more vulnerable to downside an upside. Because of the supply and demand right. And youve got so much debt in the u. S. On these stocks and theyve got to keep pumping for cash flow to pay their coupons look, energy is for traders only and most of them dont do particularly well at it. I just dont feel i have to own these stocks i dont think i have to own them so weve got to pop today based on the saudis supporting the aramco deal, but lets say if they abide by the cuts they typically havent. Todays pops are a lot different than they would have been 15 years ago. The attack on saudi arabia would have been an allout war and now were in a situation where the u. S. Can really plug a hole there and i dont really see any big pops on the horizon. They got them back online pretty quickly. I think thats right. Like the flexibility of our Shale Oil Industry to react to the disruptions looks nothing like it about 15 years ago i think that dynamic favors Bigger Companies like Conoco Phillips that have stronger Balance Sheets and arent relying on 80 oil to come about. And theres a movement to stop fracking and we see it in europe and the uk and they do it here it depends if some of the green where do they frak in europe . They do frack in europe. They are going to move on to so you herera who has the headlines for us. Hello, everyone heres whats happening at this hour Harvey Weinstein appearing at a new york city courtroom for a Pretrial Hearing in his rape and Sexual Assault case. Prosecutors are arguing that he violated bail conditions by leaving home a piece of Monitoring Technology that keeps his ankle bracelet activated the judge deferred a decision until next week. A gas explosion in an apartment block in slovakia has killed five people. Firefighters say the explosion occurred in a 12story building. They warned that the entire building could collapse. Hundreds of protesters rallied in hong kong demanding that police stop using tear gas. They expressed fears of possible health risks from the gas liberally deployed to disperse the demonstrators. And teenage activist is in madrid for the climate talks she joined protesters in a sitin she has accused World Leaders of failing to combat world change she just completed a 21day sail across the atlantic to attend the summit you are up to date thats the update this hour. Back to you. Appreciate it ulta shares are surging. Well talk about that straight ahead. Its a big day in the market and every s p sector is in the green as a result. 31 points, right at 1 were back after this. Ree itse it only becomes more entangled. Unaware that an exhilarating escape is just within reach. Defy the laws of human nature. At the season of audi sales event. So servicenow put your workflows immhm. Cloud, huh . Your employees must love you. Thank you. Ah, you could say that. So how are things with you guys . Great. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Lunch next week . Terrific. Say hi to the team. Will do. Call my office, i will. Sounds good. Alrighty. Servicenow. Works for you. Nice rock. Its time to drop gold. Go digital. Go grayscale. That was rather time for you. They cut out the best part. Thank goodness for our great editor ulta beauty is having its best day in more than three years its one of the top performers in the s p the company reporting earnings that beat estimates. Joe, you got crushed in this thing earlier in the year. Crushed. Wow, price target today to 250, 287 at deutsche youve got over 300 at jpm. So now what . A long way to go to get back the 29 decline when the guidance came in light this is a step in the right direction. Its got to motivate me at all to get back in this is about cost cutting and diversifying the brand somewhat. There still seems to be, and i think this is something that has to be dressed, there seems to be a lessening demand for kos mettics. And i think if youre going to be an investor in ulta you need to consider that. The size of the makeup bag back there i couldnt get into the makeup room. Is there less demand for makeup or less demand for makeup thats not jenner related . Its a highly competitive market. Well, listen, theres no slack in demand here it took me 15 minutes in the makeup room this morning to get ready for this. Were going to answer your questions after the break. Weve got disney, shake shack, adobe and more plus, the big week is next week t. Bond king is with me exclusively. The Halftime Report is going west and well end our trip in l. A. Well talk rally, ras,te the fed, wednesday, 12 00 noon ladies and gentlemen, your attention please. Geico would like to take a moment to say thank you to our military Service Members at home and abroad for all their hard work and sacrifice. We all sleep easier knowing youre out there keeping us safe. And on a personal note. Sfx jet engines. I just needed to get that off my chest. Thank you. Geico proudly supporting the military for over 75 years. Announcer december tends to be a strong month for stocks according to our partners, the topperforming sectors clut utilities, industrials and Consumer Discretionary for more, go to cnbc. Com kensho. Lets answer your questions first up, joe in florida, ihi medical devices, the etf more room to run absolutely, yes, there is in the last five years for S P Health Care companies, seven of the ten leading companies have been medical Devices Companies this is a great way to play that exposure you could go with the xhe, which is an eighth of the size in terms of assets of the ihi, which is what im in it has a little lower Expense Ratio as well. This is a secular play on an aging population what do you guys call it, an okay boomer . Do you have an individual name as a bonus play so i have perk and elmer, i have abbott labs, which is the Largest Holding in the etf the top 33 is abbott lab, medtronic and thermal fisher strike is in here as well. In addition to that, i have perk and elmer, pki ive had that for quite some time. High valuations, though the average pe on this, its trading at around 46, which is historically high. The top three names, abbott labs, thermal fisher, medtronic, theyre all trading at a discount. Margaret, you concur. You own a couple of these at least. Absolutely, abbott, medtronic. Medtronic i would definitely highlight. It trades at a steep discount to its longterm average and to the overall space. I definitely like medtronic going into next year. From zach in nebraska, what about adobe . I bought adobe when it got trashed a couple of months ago i thought i would be out f it by now. I wound up buying some stack as a market move and thats one of the stocks that you know this has tremendous growth its not cheap, its never been cheap. Its the cloud play, but to me its like microsoft. The subscription revenue is going to keep coming so im staying with it while i have a positive outlook of the market. Liz from new jersey wants to know about the fed next week what does the fed do next week is market is pressing in exactly zero percent chance of a rate cut i think the bar is high to hike. We dont expect the fed to move through all of 2020. So dont get excited about anything. Margaret from new york, disney whats going to happen to disney in 2020 . Disney in 2020, i think will continue to get validation around the success of disney plus and how thats going to be changing their model to one thats more subscription based and one thats more taking advantage of their full library and full set of content. Recent download data, 23 million downloads as of last week for disney plus, puts it on pace to exceed their current guidance for that subscription. And finally, josh from indiana wants to know about shake shack. Yeah, the question is did it bottom theres nothing technically that tells me that it has there really isnt any support where its trading here. It gapped down and then fell even further i would have said if this thing were going to bottom technically, 68, 69 is where the buyers would have come in and they did not so i own it as an investor and ive been in it for five years ive been through all the ups and downs. But as a trade, i would not get bullish again until you see it get back above the 69, 70 level, which is the bottom of the gap. If it gets into a gap maybe its a different picture. But right now nothing is telling me this is an immediate buy or anyone needs to rush in. The downgrade on one Health Care Stock thats had a big run this year. Josh owns it were going to go around the desk and talk abt wouithen we come back on the Halftime Report. There are things we would change about work. And there are things we wouldnt. When work is worth it. Work is worth it. Work can be closer to home. Pay more. Make us proud. Careerbuilder. Work can work. Find your work at careerbuilder. Com doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacistrecommendeding . Memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. But with opportunity comes risk. And to manage this risk, the world turns to cme group. We help farmers lock in future prices, banks manage Interest Rate changes and airlines hedge fuel costs. All so they can manage their risks and move forward. Its simply a matter of following the signs. They all lead here. Cme group how the world advances. Were back zoom video having its worst day since the summer the company showing signs of slowing revenue and consumer growth despite beating on the top and bottom lines slowing Revenue Growth no good in this environment. No, its not. But this is one of the ipos that came out it actually makes money. Somewhat surprised here. This is the video collaboration, Video Conference room Application Software so this this is a name that is beginning to look very interesting to me. Im sure that youre gonna get a lot of commentary in your trip out to San Francisco about this name because i think its a very popular name out there i personally, myself, would be looking to take some of the money that i have had in guide wire software, which is down significantly today after last nights earnings i would probably sell some of my holdings there and put it into a name like zoom. What about zoom, josh we service in in our Wealth Management firm. And its phenomenal for us because weve got offices all over the country and were paying and, like, when you look at the fundamentals of this company and how many different clients they have paying. And how quickly that paid rate of growth is moving along, its phenomenal now, does the valuation get away head of where it should . Probably its a very small float. Even for for a recent vintage ipo, which all have small floats and yeah they got really carried away with the stock and not every quarter is going to be their best quarter ever. And so if youre like a longterm investor, you look at this and say, well, i didnt want to buy it at its peak valuation. But now im buying it cheaper. Fundamentals have not worsened if anything, theyve been steadily getting better. This is an opportunity for you im not a buyer right now. Just not focused on it but im definitely watching it. Let me talk about another stock thats in your wheel house. Teledoc. Off the lowest levels of the day. That follows a downgrade over jeffries the analysts citing feverish growth expectations. He did. The our day so what what do you do with this so i brought it to the show at like 6061 when i first bought it. I have not added to it since it went up close to 90 now, its pulled back a little bit. This is a longterm play for me. Its a healthcare its a healthcare savings play. I think the wave of the future is going to be people seeing doctors virtually. Unless their arm is falling off. There are so many people who just dont have the time to go to a clinic or make an appointment, sit in a doctors waiting room and the good news is the Insurance Companies dont want them doing that anyway they would much prefer having this network of virtual doctors that can be seen from a phone, from a computer. And and i think that when you see the Insurance Companies truly embrace this model, you will see a lot more contracts than the ones theyve already signed i think large corporations are going to pursue this avenue as well its not that teledoc will own the whole market its the only publiclytraded pure play. So look. Im not saying it cant go up and down but this is a name that im focused on for a long time into the future. Okay. And maybe i will add. I love the concept. Ive looked at just havent been able to do the work at it. Okay. lta a q wel keuick break well come back. Well do final trades. My parents never taught me anything about managing money. The amount of Student Loan Debt i have, im embarrassed to even say. We just decided we didnt want debt any longer. I didnt realize how easy investing could be. Im Picking Companies that i believe in. I think sofi money is amazing. Thank you sofi. Sofi thank you, we love you. Is that pgim, we see alpha emerging in the trendsete . Sofi thank you, we love you. Driving specific sectors of outperformance. Where a rising middle class powers a booming auto industry. A leap into the digital era draws youthful populations to mobile banking and ecommerce. Trade and travel surge between emerging markets. Every day, our 1,100 investment professionals around the world search out opportunities for alpha. Partner with pgim, the Global Investment management businesses of prudential. Servicenow put our this changes everything. Youre right sir. Everything. No not everything, i mean youre still blatantly sucking up to me gary. Brilliantly observed, sir. Always three steps ahead. Six steps ahead. Sixteen. So many steps. You done . A million steps ahead. Servicenow. Works for you. Doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacistrecommendeding . Memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Wean air force veteran made of doing whats right,. Not whats easy. So when a hailstorm hit, usaa reached out before he could even inspect the damage. Thats how you do it right. Usaa insurance is made just the way martins family needs it with hasslefree claims, he got paid before his neighbor even got started. Because doing right by our members, thats whats right. Usaa. What youre made of, were made for. Usaa want to remind you once again of the big week we have coming up out west on the Halftime Report. Brad gerstner is back with us. So well visit with Dick Costello frank saluteman from snowflake so much to talk to him about as we look at that company in the year ahead and the year weve seen in vc, which plays right into trey visalo, as well. Shes going to be back with us so much to talk about with that great group of guests. Lets do final trades. Have about a minute left. Global consumer i like the global consumerhere its obviously big u. S. Piece. And then europe did not recess as everybody expected it to. So we see that kind of coming back into 2020 and recovering. Okay. Margaret Electronic Arts certainly, speaks to the you know, the trend in consumer toward gaming. Really strong company. No debt. And own this name in front of the console refresh cycle. Weiss cloudera reported a great quarter. I think the stock continues to go far below its ipo price. Josh brown . Alphabet. Two founders stepping down this week stock rallied higher on the news think theres a lot of belief in sundar and what this company has the capability doing going forward. I like it. Joe pick a financial but the best one remains j. P. Morgan. There it is 135. Everybody, have a great weekend. You as well. The exchange starts now. Scott, thank you very much. We welcome, everybody the exchange. Im tyler. Heres as when heres whats ahead. We started with major fears and worries but now we got a jobs jolt good vibes on china. And a major rebound today. So well debate what is next plus, netflix and thrill newnumbers on that epic the irishman and will they be enough to boost the stalled streamer. Netflix. And the under the radar name that will have you cheering for