Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240713

Some tariffs for soy and pork from the u. S they didnt specify quantities involved they imposed 25 tariff since july 2018 in retaliation eunice yoon was up very early it is 12 hours later there. She was up very late. Whatever it was. She was up she tries to figure out what is happening. This is the beginning of some positive that is my take. And futures are up. After thursday when the Chinese Ministry said, look, we are still on track for kauks it would have to be precondition, okay, here, well drop some of ours first and get to you december 15 right . Right i was thinking about how much risk there is to thinking about 10 or 11 months before an election and what could go wrong. We heard about if there could be a recession. He says 2021 what if there was a big market break next year in the stock market you saw what happened a year ago at the holidays. Christmas shopping draops significantly. Where im going with this trying to follow. I know it is hard trump has we are at new highs right now basically. If there is any type of problem in the market next year, march, february, march, april, may, it would be nice to be able to do that trade deal at that point. If you are already at new highs now, you need that trade deal. If the market collapses, the chinese no full well if you already got new highs. You can pull that out of your pocket, then it is off to the races. You are not going to get a big deal here. What you want is a continued detant we have to get through christmas. At least the idea that things arent going to get worse and then the market is fine with that. We have to get through christmas, new years and davos those are really happening im getting my clothes figured out and stuff like that. Me too. So 360 days a year, i can look like crap but for four days. Scrub up. Got to look good in switzerland. Steven mnuchin and other lawmakers are objecting to the plan to offer china 1 billion and 1. 5 billion with lowinterest loans this is to support the countrys structural and environmental reform he said he wants the bank to graduate china from its concessional loan program. With the congressman who introduced the legislation we were going to talk about it yesterday with grassley these prima donnas we kept him waiting on breaking news. He cant wait eight minutes he has to go do nothing else in the senate pouring salt in the wounds. Hoping hes not listening right now. Uber with report of safety. In 2018, it had reports of 3,000 Sexual Assaults, nine murders and thousands of crashes tony west said the numbers are jarring and hard to digest the public has a right to know he outlined the steps uber is taking to counter the problem including hiring more employees dedicated to safety. Adding and in app emergency button and checking in with customers if the app detects an unexpected long stop during a trip calling the stephan important step forward in the long run, well be a Better Company for taking this step companies that are open, unaccountable and unafraid are the companies that succeed weve seen similar problems with lyft where they had more than two or three dozen people who filed reports or complaints and lawsuits against it for Sexual Assaults messed up i saw it last night on nbc news. I told my wife about it. It was 3,000 Sexual Assaults. Of those 235 were rapes. 19 were fatal physical assaults. Driver on passenger and passenger on driver. It is messed up. You stick two strangers together it is ridiculous offering about 3. 1 million rides a day. But they are still talking about 3,000 assaults and some saying those are probably underreported. Uber said taking it public, you will probably see an increase of the number of reports as the underreporting is made up for. You cant stick two strangers together it is terrifying. It is relative but there are women who say they are very much on guard you are putting yourself into that position. The big question is how rigorous are the background checks uber has a lot of drivers they knockout every year. Most are because of not being able to pass driver steps but it is criminal background checks as well this is unacceptable. It should be zero. My question is, how does this compare to the rates you see in yellow cabs where there are licensed drivers questions raised in london about safety and those who are able to fool the system and not be who they say they are. That would be my biggest question on this and how do you take care of that . Did you see the guy come out of the metal detector and sully grabbed him. Turning there now to vienna. They are hoping wrap up a deal today. Is that a hotel where it is being held, brian, which one no. This is the hotel opec, joe. The organization for the petroleum ex porting countries it is a fairly sterl Office Building when you said grab the iranian minister, i said good morning, sir. He turned to cnbc and said yes ive been to, what, six of these meetings now the new saudi minister has put the lockdown there was no talking to reporters, no scrum. No signed deal last night. All the rumors are another 500,000 a day in cuts. 1. 7 million. Is that going to move the market higher no except if we get a deal for the entire year. Russia is here no deal yet. Hope for a deal. U. S. Oil and gas have been walloped from a debt perspective. You get a couple barrels upside, that is good news for u. S. Oil and gas who need every dollar they can get you know that guy does he know you just not saying mr. Great satan is good from iran for you, isnt it hes always yes. Hes always been very polite and kind hes facing a huge amount of pressure at home hes the guy who pushed through the emergency hike in gas prices overnight when the population went insane. That is a huge hit to them mass protests. Probably more than 1,000 people were killed in clashes he is trying to be impeached by his own government hes dealing with impeachment at home and hes also got to deal with the saudi conflict. There has been some issues there as well. Hes the longest serving oil minister this is probably his final meeting as with the iraqi because his government basically dissolved last week. An unbelievable number. As many as 1,000 weve seen it before, i guess if you thats one way of handling it so it doesnt get out of control there shutting down the internet. No. Yes. They shut down the internet there. We were trying to support them trump said something about supporting the protest we didnt last time when it would have maybe worked but some day, i guess right, brian yeah, listen, joe i know you are close to the president. Youve interviewed him a number of times iraqis got blamed for trying to push through some deeper cut everybody ive talked to said no way. The best guess my sources have is that the saudis went to the iraqis and said, you guys get to be the bad guys here you asked for the cuts here because we dont want to be the bad guys and raise the eye of said trump it could raise the ire of the president. By the way, one of the reason im here we dont get an increase of oil prices to help out u. S. Oil and gas, you could see a lot of job losses which is not what you want, what, 11 months before a president ial election. There is a lot of macrogeopolitical issues going on as well the other point is. Cutting production so you can boost the price while also on the market brings up all of the weird things that happened with that ipo too yeah. I tell you what, youve got the ipo with the massive overhang. Everybody is whispering about but nobody is talking about. This is unusual. There is no press conference, no scrums this is on lockdown. Everybody says this is the new saudi minister one of the sons of the king, half brother to bin salman yielding his influence and putting the crack down whether was of aramco or if this is the new normal Going Forward aramco, there is another drive of thought drive the cost of oil down if you are aramco. 2 d 2. 80 a barrel and you look better by comparison okay, brian thanks well check back well talk about what you do at night over there i dont know if you got to our restaurant beautiful view i mention them a lot i would expect some shuushi for free next time im there coming up, the jobs report is coming whether your portfolio is ready or not well get predictions. Former Vice President biden is speaking and taking on megamergers. Well see what he said later this hour. Well be right back. Todays big number. 1,670,000. Thats how many new jobs the s. Economy has added in the first 10 months of 2019. Forecasters say the economy likely added 187,000 nonfarm jobs including the return of 46,000 workers to gm thats why the number looks so good compared to what weve been really expecting we are told we are back down around 130, 140 average. They werent counted in the october numbers during that strike employment rate expected to hold at 3. 6 . Joining us now, kathy, chief u. S. Economist at oxford and russell price, economist as well back to record low 3. 5 we think overall job is little lower. Gm strikers are returning. So that adds another 40,000 to the headlines. To really disconcern the trend you want to average october, november together and you get about 160,000. I dont see you like out partying on this your odds on a recession on 2020, you go down a whoping 5 thats right. Not everything is great in your view . There are still vulnerabilities. There is risk. The fed has shown us that. The going trade tensions there is marginal good news today. Even if we have a limited phase one deal, those tensions are going to continue. The other thing is Profit Growth is slowing margins are narrowing. That is another risk for the economy. You are an economist. What does it mean for the stock market in your view . It is interesting growth did slow this year. The equity market did well you will have a disconnect for the equity market, it is always about earnings. We never know if the fundamentals are going to catch up it is possible you could recover, europe could recover, the market is right and the economy will slow. There is a lot of good news already priced in. Looking ahead, im not a Market Strategist i assume, maybe the risk goes flat unless there is a pull back you get all of this positive good news. The global back drop chill challenging especially out of europe is the market out of whack or is the economy just a lagging indicator of itself. I think the economy is pretty much on Cruise Control right now. Consumers are in good shape. Well see that with the employment report here in a few hours. That is really enough to keep the base of the Economic Growth close to about 2 . That is something that will be sustained for quite some time. Joe, you mentioned earlier, mattis had talked about the possibility of a recession in 2021 we still think if we are cruising at about 2 , us economy, we can avoid that recession. We talk economic cycles. Most people have heard boom and bust we havent had a boom, just a bust next year, things are elevated theyll receive the income gains that they are from a strong job market we can avoid a recession next year unless there is some outside influence and something bad with the trade situation that really causes consumers to pull back and maybe that would have to be sustained for quite some time for it to be effective and with any type of true economic slow down. You are not in the business of forecasting equity prices either, im going to say it. As an investor, the economic back drop you see now, is it friendly for saying in the stock market in your view . Yeah. I absolutely do think so this year, the s p earnings are looking to be flat next ear, they are expected to be up about 9 if you remove the influence of energy and material, that gives us s p 500 earnings gain this year of about 3 we should see some what rebound in those prices even if Commodity Prices remain flat we should see a little Better Business investment in the year ahead. Business has slowed and lowered demand for u. S. Exports. With consumers being 70 of the u. S. Economy, there is only so long that Business Investment can remain under pressure. Ill take russells opinion, your opinion as much as anyone else for you guys, you might as well do stock prices, it is impossible to forecast the economy. So what does it . Kathy, thank you im impressed you can teach an old dog new tricks yes ancient. There is that sevenyear thing little dogs live to 16, 17 years old. Big dogs, it is valid big dogs, im worried about when we come back, well give you fraud advice usually reserved for professional athletes frud concern that could wipe out your assets. Thats coming up after the break. vo the moth without hope, struggles in the spiders web. With every attempt to free itself, it only becomes more entangled. Unaware that an exhilarating escape is just within reach. Defy the laws of human nature. At the season of audi sales event. But he wanted snow for thelace holidays. So we built a snow globe. Ill get that later. Dylan but the one thing we could both agree on was getting geico to help with homeowners insurance. What . Switching and saving was really easy i love you what . Sweetie hands off the glass. Ugh call geico and see how easy saving on homeowners and condo insurance can be. I love her as a principal i can tell you this. When one student gets left behind, we all get left behind. This is a problem that affects each and every one of us. 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His company is focused on helping professional athletes of understanding their finances something wed all like to know. The first red flag, he encourages to look out for a lack of oversight. Thank you really great to be on the show great to have you i really enjoyed the intro too. Thats a great song for everyone the first sign is oversight. That is essential when it comes to identifying and mitigating the risk of fraud. The reason for that is that Financial Advisors, they get into a financial problem sometimes that will be a gambling problem, drug problem or anything that will add financial pressure theyll then look to their clients for an opportunity to take the money they need if you are overseeing your in investments and keeping an eye on it and asking questions periodically, hes going to know that this person should not be i shouldnt take the money from them because they are looking at it. Oversight is one of the biggest deterrents they dont want to get caught. If they know you are looking, they wont take it from you. Second red flag includes conflicts of interest. What should we be doing on that front . It is a very heavy term because there is so many different ways that conflicts of interests can present itself to explain it in the most simple way to the average investor. When you want to do to minimize conflicts of interest is hire what is called a registered Investment Advisor what theyll do is provide you investment advise solely in your best interest. On top of that, look for somebody with advanced certification, something that shows they put their time in to be an expert and provide the best advise. The conflicts of interests that do present themselves are hard for the average investor to identify or understand just this qway of starting out and understanding who your Financial Advisor is, weatherer broker or duelly registered, that is important. Looking at excessive fees this goes along with oversight and the right advisor. It is like passing the smell test on one hand, you have your advisory fee that is 1 you pay on an annual basis. On top of that, there may be investment fees. Mutual funds, commissions on stocks what you have to do is understand what those fees are, what you are paying and how often. A lot of times, these fees are hidden or hard to identify looking at his or her account statement. It is important to have conversations with your advisor to understand the fees you are paying on the investments you have and open the conversation there. What happens is that over time that will drasicily reduce the amount of your return. You need to be on top of your game for that. Thank you for your time. For more on invest in you, comcast are investors in acorn well run through the Earnings Report next and later well take you live to beijing where officials announce they are going to waive some tariffs on soil and pork imports yesterdays s p 500 winners and losers that was wonderful. I loved that it was great. Wasnt bad. Parts were not good though iid dnt really love it it was bad. Terrible boo. Good morning u. S. Equity futures are indicated up this morning. We are looking at green arrows all of that could change when job numbers come out s p up by 8, dow up by about 75 and dow up as well time for the executive edge. We are seeing some big moves lets start with zoom Video Communications that Company Posted Third Quarter earnings that Beat Estimates and strong Fourth Quarter guidance revenue increased to 85 marking a slow down to the 96 growth. That stock down by almost 9 it had been a success up to this point. Shares of crowdstrike rising on better than expected results the Security Company reported a loss on just over 125 million that stock initially fell but then swung higher after a missing number in the companys forecast was corrected they blamed the wire service for that error that stock is up now the ceo of crowdstrike will be with us this morning shares of docusign beating analysts expectations. On line signature platform billings rose and prescription revenues rose beating estimates. Could be even more culture pager duty shares fall revenue slight beat and Fourth Quarter came in lower than expected Company Bringing on a former sales force executive as new chief officer. Coming up, joe biden speaks out. One of the things that worries me most about that, john, is not just the political but the Economic Impact on people the middle class is getting killed reaction to his tax comments from our cnbc speak easy interview. Thats next. 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Com is there certain things you have to right the market a little the market is that if you have all of the tax breaks, essentially all the tax breaks and benefits flowing from the top, there has never been as great a concentration of wedge including going back to the great depression, ever one of the things that worries me most about that is not just the political, the Economic Impact the middle class is getting killed treasury secretary mnuchin said today he imposed a transaction tax which some in the race have supported because it would destroy the markets is that why you think . No. I think we should have a financial transaction tax. Former Vice President joe biden speaking with hardwood released a plan to increase 3 trillion in taxes from 21 to 28 as well as capital tax rate. Joining us now, our guest cnbc contributor. The two sides have talked out position again we can go over them again. You are going to tell me you think it is important for corporations to be profitable because eventually they use some of that money to invest in capital to expand, to hire people, to raise wages and generate the jobs that generate the tax revenue for the country to pay for everything. Then there is the other side that doesnt seem to have a clue so we are back to square one, arent we . I guess, right. The big difference is you have some people in the Democratic Party who seem to be saying that it really doesnt matter how heavily you tax business and investors that theyll be fine theyll continue to invest theyll continue to raise wages. If you want to tax higher, theyll be fine. That is a risky thing at a time when a company is growing why would you be taxing Business Investment so heavily unless the only thing you care about is punishing businesses and punishing rich people. I dont understand it either. The government jobs are funded with private tax dollars eventually that comes down to the money from all the things that come from growth and pros sperity and commerce Everybody Knows this why are they in denial about the way things work. I guess if we start at 100 taxation, they might understand that could be a head wind to Economic Growth. I hear 90. You could tell me that for really rich people izen eisen hohower. That was great listen, if you think there is a revenue problem and we need to raise more money, fine, well have that discussion all i have heard from democrats and progressives is that is not an issue we have plenty of money, we can take on a lot more debt. That is the issue it comes down to the fact that we dont like that amazon doesnt pay enough taxes but we do like the fact that they invest more than any other company. The fact that we want to massively raise taxes, again i thought we were tired of the economy growing at over 2 . Have you ever going to retire and go to wyoming and fish are you tired and blue in the face ive tried for so hard for so long are you ready to throw in the towel yet . Im dedicated my life to fighting for prosperity. I will not lay down my banner. Do you get a lot of thanks for that not very much im thanking you. We have more of that biden speak easy throughout the day. You can also watch it at cnbc. Com when we come back, the koun down is on to the december 15 when the next round of tariffs is expected to be slapped on news overnight that china seems to be ready to waive some tariffs on china pork and soybean imports. Thats next. I can shine, i can shine, i can shine. Imma do what im made to do. Built for excellence. You start from the foundation up. The excellence is reaching dreams and chasing them at the same time. New this morning, Chinas Finance Ministry says its going to waive import tariffs for soybeans and pork imports. Eunice yoon joins us with more eunice reporter hi, joe thanks a lot as you said, this is an olive branch from the chinese to the Trump Administration because what we had overnight is that the Customs Tariff Commission had said that china was going waive tariffs on some u. S. Pork and soybean imports. So this is going to affect a range of products, but the government didnt detail which ones or by how much. And the total tariff for u. S. Pork currently stands at 72 for american soybean imports for americans its 33 despite this conciliatory move, they said dhie niece purchases need to be based on market needs. What was really interesting when i first heard this news was that based on my previous conversations with government officials or with those with government links, they had said china does not want to adhere to specific targets when it comes to Agricultural Products but that what we could see is the chinese rolling out a series of incremental steps that they believe President Trump would see as progress, such as, for example, the november lifting of the poultry ban. Thats specifically for u. S. Poultry and now we have these tariff wavers. So the question, guys, is whether or not President Trump would see it in his interest to view these steps as progress, enough to lift tariffs, which is what the chinese want. Eunice, thank you very much its great to see you and i know youve been all over this, keeping us on top of what happens. We really appreciate it. Right now for more on the trade talks, lets bring in max baukus and kevin rudd who is the former australian Prime Minister he is now president of the Asia Society Policy institute gentlemen, thank you both for being here. You bet. You are both longtime watchers of this you know very well how the chinese operate. What do you think right now of these moves that unit just described . Does this get us closer to the potential of some sort of deal on december 15th or at least not raising tariffs here what do you think, kevin i think given these moves by the chinese customs authority, its a positive indication of where things might go. As ive said on this program before, my judgment is that its overwhelmingly in both sides interests to get a deal this year and i actually stick by that despite all the sound, all the ferment and all the statements recently by the president out of london saying we could do one after the next president ial election. I think this is still on and i would be very surprised if we dont have a deal by the end of the year. By still on you think there is an official deal and as a result there are no additional tariffs that are put on by december 15th and that the old tariffs that are already existing are rolled off which is what the chinese are asking for . Take those in sequence. December 15th tariffs, i would be highly surprised if we move in that direction. Me, too. Not the least bit because of the impact on americans and because it would tank tariffs in a big way. On existing tariffs, youre right to point to that, becky. Thats where so much of the disagreement lie now there will be to save, as it were chinas domestic face, some roll back of tariffs how much we dont know the Sticking Point of the president is the quantum on the proposed chinese agricultural purchasing order from american farmers. Max, does that sound like a deal that you think President Trump could accept i do. That depends on the amount absolute obviously the president is requiring a certain amount of soybeans to be shipped to china its says, here, china, buy a certain amount of soybeans i think, frankly, theres action by china its pretty good its pretty clever it indicates, hey, we want to stay at the table. We want to work something out here. Olive branch so to speak. Yes, i do and i think there will be a deal. What would surprise you there are so many things that are out there right now, including all the human rights issues that are taking place in hong kong, huawei, whats going to happen with that part of it there are a lot of complicated parts. Do you think that gets ignored right now . Whats fascinating, becky, despite lets call it all the other things going on in the u. S. China relationship weve just had the passage and the president has not vetoed the hong kong human rights and democracy act. China has not, as it were, decided to abolish or to put to one side the trade negotiations with the United States we have the upcoming legislation through the house of representatives on the wieget in shenzhen these are Major Political matters but it shows the chinese are vulnerable. Thats what i was going to ask you. Were you surprised when they didnt really chafe as much as you thought . Were you surprised and did that indicate they were vulnerable . They dont want to throw away the deal. Thats what ive said on this program. I think the chinese are quite vulnerable on the economy. Growth is actually quite slow despite the i couldnt believe they did nothing with that. Thats the kind of thing they didnt do nothing. They were very, very upset and they will do something youre right. Its weird separate that out. Didnt it raise an eyebrow for you. Whoa, theyre not going to be more strident in their response . I think the main point is theres separation here. I think they new trump had to sign it, too, because it was veto proof. Exactly they make sure. Thats the biggest significant thing here, china looking at its own volatile book, push that aside and we cant have that headwind. Well have you back because december 15th is right around the corner. Yes, it is. Its jobs friday predictions right after the break. Ghbaxs intoe g b rit ck on. Flying south for the winter. They never stray from their predetermined path. But this season, a more thrilling journey is calling. Defy the laws of human nature. At the season of audi sales event. Futures up ahead of todays jobs report and hoping for a Third Straight day of gains. Well preview the employment numbers and tell you where to put your money to work crowdstrike gets a pop after it fixes a typo. Well talk to the ceo about Cyber Security plus, Mike Bloomberg unleashes on the president pollster frank luntz joins us. The second hour of squawk box starts right now. Good morning welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc im joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew is off today. In studio for the remainder of the show, Jason Trennert how are you . Im doing fine. The gop thing. What, the elephants not necessarily you mike like pacoderms. They are sacred animals. We have a lot in the house you have to point them in a certain way. Not feng sui, i think its indian yeah. Anyway, we have a lot of them pointing that way, pictures on the wall, things like that a lot of stuff u. S. Equity fun facts. I have an idea. There it is hunting them . No, Little Things very ornate, all kinds of jewelry. Thats too bad. Yeah, theyre not no animals were farmed. Heres whats making headlines this hour, this one. I saw it last night. Did you think of those i thought the numbers were global. I did, too. Its just u. S. Uber says its received more than 3,000 reports of 3,000 of Sexual Assault there are 1. 3 billion rights in the u. S. Last year in its first biennial Safety Report the company says that it was down 16 from a year earlier and details efforts for further safety improvements. We have kids, obviously. 3,000 is a big number. It does help its 1. 3 billion. If you dig into that, 235 were rapes, 19 physical assaults that ended in death. So thats when you start looking at those and realizing thats whats happening in the United States. Can you control the background on the drivers but some of this is going the other way. Passengers, picking up some unsavory passengers. And they reported this themselves, right . They did. Lyft has been an issue because there have been women who have been suing the company because they have been sexually assaulted. I think there were Something Like 34, 35 women that just sued them obviously its a problem that happens there. Bigger question, what happens if you were to compare that to existing taxi companies. Right. What are the rates that go with those are there better background checks there its kind of mind boggling but you put it into context with 1. 3 billion rides. The scariest thing is youve got to have the guy say your 2345i name so you know hes an uber or lyft driver. Not just getting a random call. Its the worst thing in the world. Every scary thing youve ever thought of. Which is what happens down in i know. Okay see, greco. The countdown to the november jobs report is on. Consensus forecasts calling for 187 thousand new nonfarm jobs. Steve liesman is here with what investors can expect in less than 90 minutes. Good morning, steve. Good morning, becky high hopes for the strong jobs gains. After a couple weak economic reports, also high uncertainty were looking for 100 is that working . 187 k. Im not really good at this and 3. 6 unemployment. You ought to see my real handwriting. Not any much better here adp disappointed this week with just 67,000. Among the reasons for uncertainty, let me show you here we have gm workers returning, thats going to add 40 to 50,000 we had some Colder Weather that might have worked against that manufacturing slowdown also, a cap exslowdown, is that working in the number . Worker shortages where is that number going to come from. Jpmorgan said we believe that the trend in job growth has cooled but that the labor market remains healthy. Theyll have to get used to lower unemployment economists arent quite sure what the right level of job growth is. Let me show you. Weve had three distinct phases of job growth. This has come in, average 209,000, okay . Then we have this comb down in the middle from like april to july and it was 143 k, okay . And then bounced back up 184. I will tell you come on, 184 k. Ill get better at this, folks, i promise here now ill show you, economists believe that with entrance into the job force the right level is down here at just 100,000. Another reason we worry about the strong job growth, where are the workers going to come from guys, debate and discuss. Why is it rubbing ahead of that right now what do you think, steve its really uncertain, becky. There must be there could be more Economic Growth out there than were counting. Thats one possibility it could be that people are look at the mess thats such a mess take a look over im getting rid of that. Youre not a lefty, are you i am a lefty. Youre lefthanded . Yeah. I just have terrible handwriting. You should have said no that looked like youre using the hand that youre not that its amazing. I thought you were trying to cheat the ka camera. No, its a disaster. Youre setting me up. I would like to write more personal notes. Steve, youre setting me up to say so you really are a lefty . You know, joe, youve had an hour more on Television Im awake youre a little further along. Im sorry youll notice, joe, in the 8 30 hour im much quicker on the comeback than i am in this now. I gotcha now. You got me and im going to sit here and take it. Yes, you are. Come on over to the table. Joining us to talk about what to expect from todays job report is our guest host, Jason Trennert and a member of the young president s organization, tom lasalle. Lets talk about what youre seeing in the jobs market. The market looks very strong. Im not as ready for 180,000 jobs i think it will be a little bit lower than that, but the illustration that steve just showed of yeah. Where it usually is hes dead on. Anything over 100,000 is a positive the duration of this economy weve gotten a little spoiled thinking 110, 120 isnt great after ten years of this market is absolutely crazy. The ceos, cfos, people are very bullish on hiring going into the holidays in 2020. Jason, what do you think . Anything over 100,000 . I think so. I was blown away by the claims number i was surprised by the claims number, too. Unemployment claims are the best Economic Indicator tlor the is doing nothing. They were down, actually. 203. They revised the last month down. Jason, answer beckys question why are we running persistently above what we need to do to the labor supply and labor demand should equal over time. I think steve, what i think is theres probably more of a reservoir of people getting back into the work force the Labor Force Participation rate has been flattish. Can you put that graphic up let me show you what i did i looked at the change in participation among men and women from 2008 to 2019. Men are still down in that 25 to 54 this is20 plus im looking at 5 Percentage Points a bunch of them appear to be in school, some of the younger folks. Some of the prime age men. Women are about the same. A little less. A little less what that shows you is perhaps theres a continued reservoir of workers who could come back in. Doesnt explain why theyre out. You know some of that. Real wages are up you know, theyre not up a lot real wages are up some and i think people want to belong. If this goes on, people want to get involved in the party. He was right. He didnt live to see it, how right he was. Alan . He basically said they would not come back. They would never come back but there was a reservoir for them. There was a reservoir for them his point was that as the Unemployment Rate came down, that proved his point. Just to beckys thing, theres issue of disability. Opioids. Opioids and those sort of things thats not monetary policy, its really social policy. Is that a forgotten group that never gets brought back look, maybe tom wants to comment on this. Its been a great jobs program, a wonderful Welfare Program to run a tight labor market. If you ask go ahead, tom steve, if you asked where does the majority of hiring usually come from, its small to Mediumsized Companies are hiring were looking at a situation where there is still, as they like to say in the industry, a ton of dry powder between private equity firms and Venture Capital firms. The ecosystem of startups has changed over the past 40 years where it used to be bootstrapping companies, people with experience taking that to start up Smaller Companies and today its Venture Capital, its raising money from wealthy individuals or Pension Funds or what have you and theyre spreading it across 5, 10, 15, 20 companies in a portfolio and theyre hiring up and doing this blitz craig type hiefring whichi so trendy especially since our practice is bursting through the roof 10 to 15 of those companies hit, everybody makes money and then what they do is they take failed but experienced entrepreneurs now to go play with their money again the next time and the next time the ecosystem has evolved and changed and thats why were still seeing so much hiring and who the people are that are going to reenter the work force. 20 years ago 2 1 2 was viewed as full unemployment im not sure 3. 5 were not far off of that number. We dont know what the bottom is thats whats interesting. No, exactly right were seeing also its a global economy. We talk about it from a big Global Corporation side of things but from an employee standpoint, if you can get somebody to still do the job in another part of the world and its not crucial to have facetoface interaction, thats whats keeping wages low its just a matter of time until it increases. I want be to make one more point, becky if you think about the one thing that i have not mentioned in my jobs preview that i always mention, its the fed and monetary policy. Now youre going to bring him in. Im going to bring it out and im going to explain why its interesting. Because it doesnt matter. Exactly. Either way theyre not going to raise. Exactly the fed is in an interesting place with a band around any potential movement weve gone into each one of these darn reports on tinterhooks because plus or minus 50,000 meant is the fed going to hike or cut. I think steve is trying to say this doesnt matter for the markets today. No, no, no, it matters. It matters for Different Reasons but not for fed policy. Tell me why investors care. Investors care because they certainly want to know the economy can at least grow at 2 . There are still a group of people out there very worried about a recession, our clients, next year. We dont share that concern in any way but i think just getting anything over 100,000 i think is a win given where the Unemployment Rate is now its going to be difficult just to maintain and i think our other guest is right youre pretty much towards the end of the line in terms of how much you can grow jobs when the Unemployment Rate is this low. Hey, tom, thanks for joining us today steve, well see you back here in a little bit and jason will be with us for the rest of the show. When we return, the latest on elon musks pedo guy trial i just what do you think that means . I dont know. Im ready to read anything in the what is it, 2019. Plus, uber reveals the extent of its Sexual Assault problem. What investors should take away from the companys Safety Report discuss that after the break lets get a quick check on the market before we go to the break and its been the default position for seems like a while now. Green. Squawk box will be right back. Johnsbut were also a cancer fighting, hiv controlling, joint replacing, and depression relieving company. From the day youre born we never stop taking care of you. Theres one thing you can be sure of. Theyre changing by the nanosecond. Thats why cognizant created a unique engineering approach to design and build new digital products. Learn how cognizant softvision designs experiences and engineers outcomes. Cool. Cool. Wthats why xfinity hasu made taking your internetself. And tv with you a breeze. Really . Yup. You can transfer your Service Online in about a minute. You can do that . Yeah. And with twohour Service Appointment windows, its all on your schedule. Awesome. So while moving may still come with its share of headaches. No kidding. Were doing all we can to make moving simple, easy, awesome. Go to xfinity. Com moving to get started. Welcome back, everybody. Jurors are expected to start deliberating jane wells has it. Youve got me. Tell me, whats going on reporter well, final arguments begin at 9 maybe well have a decision today. Whats going to be interesting is how much the judge is going to be vigilant about focusing on the tweets where musk calls unsworth a pedo guy. And these other emails where musk calls him a child rapist. Those were only allowed in as to musks state of mind did he mean that as an insult or as pedophile the defamation claim is only on the tweets the judge will be very clear pretty much all of yesterday was taken up by testimony from vernon unsworth. The cave man was said to not have suffered at all they showed the jury pictures of him being honored by the Prime Minister and the governor of thailand why would they honor anyone they thought might be a pedophile elon musk not in court hes only been in court for his own testimony. Is he going to return for the decision federal judge has been cranky with both sides. He seems especially perturbed by unsworths attorney, l. Lin wood. Folkesy attorney he represented Richard Jewel who was wrongfully accused of the olympic bombing in atlanta in 1996 in fact, theres a movie coming out from Clint Eastwood and playing l. Lin wood will be oscar winner sam rockwell proving everything in hollywood ends up in a movie, even somebody involved in the elon musk trial. Dont gloss over that clints still directing, jane. I mean, did you see the mule hes like a i dont know. Hes got it 90 years old. Hes eternal. And his mind is sharp yeah. 89 still. Still 89. But i just you know, all of our heroes some day wont be with us any longer thats going to be a tough one hackman hackmans the same. When Burt Reynolds passed away right i dont want to be maudlin. Yeah, i mean, wow. I think its funny. How does he how did this fall in your lap . Get jane wells on that i just think its weird. Bacon . Reporter because i love it. I dont see the connection. Anything bacon is you, pot she covered the o. J. Trial. Thats right. Reporter i covered a lot of trials. Thats right. Thats right reporter elon musk smoked a blunt which i was thinking about that, too. In this day and age, the president has called people well, never a pedo but he throws you know, he throws he calls mini Mike Bloomberg so in this day and age is it twitter you cant call somebody a pedophile and get away with it all of our standards are lower today or is it twitter reporter theres a key figure everyone hes insultedis a public figure. Vernon unsworth has been a public figure. Elon musk said he told him where to stick his submarine the difference between public and private is much higher bar. Musk tried to have him a public figure. Unsworth yesterday refused to apologies for saying stick it where it hurts he still calls it a pr stunt he doesnt think elon musk is cold hearted but he thinks it was a pr stunt. Im not complaining about trump. I chuckle you know, sleepy yeah, except i think trying to explain this stuff to your kids yeah, they dont get any of that in school. My 8yearold doesnt not to the extent of what hes seeing on prepare him for junior high and high school. Great. Reporter go on as you were. All right as you were. Thanks, jane for more on the impact of this trial on the stock, lets bring in dan ieisman, managing directo of stock at webbush. I was looking before we were going to talk, i saw someone, morgan stanley, 500 price stock. Stocks bounced back from under 200 to 330 unless its a positive effect on the stock, theres no effect from this. But i think its another black eye for musk look at the stock how can you tell from that stock that its another black eye . Its a black eye not necessarily in terms of the impact of the stock but in terms of someone that needs to balance a giga 3 buildout, model 3 demand that we think is going to wean in the u. S. Youve had meet teoric rebound i think caution in terms of 2020, in terms of what weve seen, in the u. S. , can profitability be sustained wed be selling in into this ra. Do you think with elon is teflon, he can do anything with impunity buntil he cant hes so charismatic and successful whether you have a tesla or not, youve got to grant him that i dont know what happens with subsidy and when bmw starts making these cars. He has a lot of leeway because of who he is no doubt. You can do that with impunity. Hes held to a different standard, thats part of the issue. Obviously its a positive sort of little wave were seeing in tesla. Next year, giga 3, china, u. S. Demand, profitability. If theres any slipup, thats where this gets more magnified from a board perspective it all comes down to institutionally speaking its hard to own this name with him as ceo i continue to think if he was not ceo its a stock that would be significantly higher. Really . I feel like so much of the success is him hes by far their biggest hes part of the Management Team. As the guy who owns most of the stock, hes never going to be anything other than the boss there no matter what title you give him thats why i think right now that continues to be the conundrum with tesla stock. You think netnet hes more of a detriment than an asset hes more of an asset in terms of the Overall Company in terms of the operation. The stock price would be better without him right now if you told me musk is not ceo and chairman mike robin takes over or coceo position youre talking about shuffling the deck chairs. Thats just a change in title. Hes still there i dont see how tesla gets by without having elon musk there, honestly. He continues to be a key asset to the company hes the hearts and lungs. As you see with the trial and some other issues, these are distractions that take away from the core situation at tesla in terms of all of the you have to take the bad with the good with him. Yeah. What about just generally core demand for we know as joe pointed out, demand for electric vehicles is increase dramatically globally. How is tesla positioned for that in 2020 . Because frankly i have been short the stock. I covered and ive been afraid to do anything else since its just blown up right, you know, in my face id like to put the short back on but im afraid that the economys still Strong Enough that theres enough people that will put down deposits for new vehicles. Yeah. I think many are in your camp and i think it all comes down to we see europe demand, theres pent up demand weve seen it happen in china, comes down to u. S. U. S. Demand is waning going into next year. They need to hit profitability, 450, 500,000 units i think we get to the point next year where this becomes another opportunity where you can see the stock move down. Right now its a massive Short Covering but i believe this will be short lived continue to have a negative view on tesla in terms of as we go into next year. Lets move on talk a little bit about uber receiving more than 3,000 reports of Sexual Assault during 1. 3 billion rides in theu. S. Last year. Took me a while to do the ma it is a small percentage but a big sounding number. And its a horrific number just in terms of for a company, as weve talked about, thats built on safety. Right i think when you look at this, this continues to be something that darren and uber, right now its a crisis in terms of a safety issue. I think you look at some other regulatory issues, this will add fuel to the fire if they dont get their house in order. I would say if i did the math that its not a safety issue because its its what are the chances . 1 out of thats why i said i need scientific notation youre thinking that the headline number makes it a safety city issue . Because the chance of you getting into an uber based on those numbers and having something occur is probably 1 in 1 in what . You walk out you might get killed by a vending machine as well or a shark attack i mean, the same thing. Agreed. Super small number. But it should be zero. But to those 235, its a big number. Should be zero. I can tell when you this came out last night i had five calls from investors after the Safety Report came out. Because i think it just highlights at a company right now that continues to be in the penalty box with all of the issues that weve seen down 1 . The worry is what this could do from a regulatory perspective. Especially london. 3 to 5 . This will give them and the tfl a lot more meat on the bones to go after uber. Look, is it 1 in 433,000 or 1 in 43,000 . You do need scientific notation its a you could do similar numbers like i say, it should be a six sigma it should be about zero. Its about the screening process. You cant screen the customers. But here were talking about the drivers. No, were not were talking about both it goes both ways. The assault comes on the drivers not just by the drivers. But from your customerfacing perspective, thats the problem. And i think ultimately what theyre going to have to do is theyre going to have to have an action plan in terms of how theyre going to basically try to bring this down to zero the Safety Report is good for transparency purposes, but for a company that continues to have a black cloud, it continues to be an issue in terms of dara controlling whats going on there. How many drivers does uber have in the United States . Look, i mean its im just and, again i saw it. Contracting issue in the fact that theyre largely subcontractors theyre employees but theyre not really employees. Thats the bigger issue if you get forced into the position of calling yourself a taxi company and these are your employees and youre on the hook it may happen in california by state rules. This report gives that more legs, i would assume well, again, with the tens of millions of drivers when you sort of say the numbers, as joe said, small, but fundamentally its the contractoremployee issue. A lot different right here this is a firestorm that theyre going to need to handle at uber. They had more than 1 million perspective drivers in 2017 and 2018 that failed to advance through the screening process. 3 4 of those were for people who didnt pass the driving tests or requirements on that 40,000 drivers since rolling out continuous screening and that tries to ensure compliance with background checks and requirements on a regular basis. I just dont know exactly what those standards are and how they match up to, lets say, a taxi company. Thats my question thats a big question that dara and uber are going to have to handle. Thanks, dan look good in that outfit pink. Try to brighten the day. A lot going on. Good morning. When we come back, crowdstrike Ceo George Kurtz will join us to discuss the latest outlook well be right back. Time now for todays aflac trivia question. On this day in 1923, a president ial address was broadcast on radio for the first time which president gave the address . The answer when cnbc squawk box continues coach saban, how is aflacs Program Different from Health Insurance . Well aflac gives you money directly, for things Health Insurance doesnt cover. Aflac we put together a little highlight reel for you. Heres aflac helping you with your deductible. Copays. Out of pocket costs. You look good paying bills. Get to know us at aflac. Com every year, our analysts visit thousands of companies, in a multitude of countries, where we get to know the people that drive a companys growth and gain new perspectives. Thats why we go beyond the numbers. T. Rowe price. Invest with confidence. Thats why we go beyond the numbers. Most people think as a reliable phone company. But to businesses, were a reliable partner. We Keep Companies ready for whats next. man we weave security into their business. second man virtualize their operations. woman and build ai customer experiences. second woman we also keep them ready for the next big opportunity. Like 5g. Almost all of the fortune 500 partner with us. woman when it comes to digital transformation. Verizon keeps business ready. Now the answer to todays aflac trivia question. On this day in 1923, a president ial address was broadcast on radio for the first time which president gave the address . The answer, president lvcain coolidge what are you doing back there, junior . Since were obviously lost, im rescheduling my xfinity customer Service Appointment. Ah, relax. I got this. Which gps are you using anyway . A Little Something called instinct. Been using it for years. Yeah, thats what im afraid of. He knows exactly where were going. My whole body is a compass. Oh boy. The my account app makes todays Xfinity Customer Service simple, easy, awesome. Not my thing. Welcome back, everybody. Crowd strike posting impressive quarterly numbers last night beating on both lines and that stock is actually up this morning. Its also well above the ipo price from early june but if youve been looking out over the course of time, it has pulled back to earth a little bit just over the last three months, watching with that, crowd strike indicated up by 6 george kurtz is the ceo and founder of crowdstrike thank you for being with us. Thank you for having me. The street liked what it heard. The revenue was above expectations i think it came in at 125 million versus the 118 million the street had expected. What do you think is happening out there . What do you think is happening in terms of new customers . We were extremely proud with the quarter that we posted over half a billion dollars of annual recurring revenue its a testament to the cloudbased technology that we built to stop breaches customers are looking for outcomes to help them stop these very sophisticated attacks weve delivered it in a Cloud Platform which hasnt been done before in a security space creating the security cloud. I think thats one of the reasons why weve seen such rapid growth because were solving such a hard problem at scale. You know, the stock has had some good success since the ipo, but if youre watching your stock or any of the stocks in this arena over the last several months, theres been a bit of a pull back. The view of the street has been, okay, you really need Cyber Security companies but how do you distinguish between the Cyber Security companies how do you make sure that they maintain their edge and staying ahead of where the cyber criminals are . Whats your answer to that a big part of what we do is we crowd source the technical data that comes off the computers and we use a. I. To predict whether something is malicious or not more importantly, weve created a platform that expands to i. T. Hygiene. And i think given the modules that weve created and part of our success is how we share these modules, weve become very strategic. I look at us as a company akin to a salesforce or workday to create a platform which we call the security cloud we think of ourselves as beyond the traditional end point Security Company but fundamentally a cloud pillar in the future. George, Jason Trennert here i was wondering what you think about the lockup thats about to expire in a couple of days and how thats going to impact the stock. Do you think thats had something to do with some of the recent weakness over the last couple of months in stock . Well, as most companies have a sixmonth lockup which is traditional, ours is coming up next week and obviously, you know, the traders that trade around that, i cant predict whats going to happen, but i think whats most important is continuing to deliver value for our customers and continuing to focus on Revenue Growth and one of the bright spots that we talked about in the last Earnings Call was really free cash flow. 7 million which was way ahead of schedule so some great data points for us we continue to be heads down providing value for customers. George, very broadly. I think your lockup expiration expires is it this coming monday yes what does that mean will you be selling shares well, as you might expect im part of the Management Team and we have whats called a 10b5 1 program which is part of something that sec has which programmatically allows you to sell theres a very small portion of my holdings thats part of that program that could programmatically sell but its more for diversification its not a reflection of my view of the company im extremely bullish on the company and excited about the numbers we posted. Ceos love that provision, dont they, george they have the same answer every time its like a default. Its beautiful whoever came up with that, i dont know who invented it, but it goes all the way back to when it mattered. Remember oh, that oh, you know i dont really you never really have to say anything. No, its really just sort of one of those but its just a small percentage of what you own. Youre not going to sell any of the other stuff in this case its a small percentage, yeah if it happens to sell, it sells. Right. You dont have to exit any of the large i think that would be more oh, absolutely not. This is a very small portion just for diversification ive been at this eight years. You know, again, were focused really on building a value for the company and thats where my heads at. I called you kurt dont you like kurtz from brando. Everybody calls me that they do, right . I knew that, see . He was. Youre not crazy on this. George, thanks for joining us today. Thank you very much thanks, kurtz. Coming up, the opec meeting wrapping up in vienna. Brian llansuiv is there and hell join us after the break. Squawk box coming right back all right. Welcome back, everybody. Opec wrapping up their meeting in vienna. You can take a look at oil prices this morning. Right now wti is down by about 30 cents its a decline of half a percent. 58. 13 is half of the trade watching whats happening with ice brent is down to 63. 24 weve been waiting to talk with Brian Sullivan covering this meeting. Hes made the point this is a very different meeting weve seen in the past good to see you again. Want to take it from here . Reporter yeah, i will, becky. It is good to see you again. Listen, ive got bad news and good news. Were not wrapped up yet there is still no official deal, timetable, the reason oil is down is very simple. The delegates will meet again on march 5th and 6th. That seems to be telling the oil market that any deal they make here may only be for another three months the market does not want that. The market wants deeper cuts, which is likely. 1. 7 million total, 1. 2 plus 500, but they want it for longer. Anything other than maybe a 9 month or full year deal with full compliance is probably bearish for prices so setting that next meeting in march has kind of spooked the market a bit bad news is we dont have a deal yet. Heres the potential good news heres the deus where we are expecting a press conference we expected one yesterday, we did not get it let me point this out. The new Energy Minister is expected to speak. Why is that important . You referenced a very unusual meeting. It is because, a, its his first meeting. Hes a member of the royal family b, there was no media scrum yesterday. There was no press conference last night there has been almost about 150 of the worlds finest oil, energy strategists, journalists and researchers are here and what the market wants to do is hear directly from us. So hopefully when we get a deal, guys, well get a press conference, well get some clear answers and well see just how aligned opec is because the market, becky, does not believe this is an opec that is aligned together, thats why we didnt get a deal last night. Brian, youve got us on tinterhooks, well be watching thank you. Coming up, Mike Bloomberg with harsh words for the president. Well hear from pollster franklin right after the break i can shine, i can shine, i can shine. Imma do what im made to do. Built for excellence. You start from the foundation up. The excellence is reaching dreams and chasing them at the same time. The excellence is reaching dreams and [ dramatic music ]ing ] ahhhh ahhhh elliott. You came back spiking with cbss gail king. She was here yesterday. She was here because of the viacom deal. I saw trevor noah, too. In the bastian of capitalism im wondering if they knew where they were with all of the rhetoric. Trevor is pretty he knows. He was critical of the other candidates running against him for the democratic nomination. I watched all the candidates and i just thought to myself, donald trump would eat them up. You think all of the candidates who are running today, he would eat them up . Let me rephrase it. I think that i would do the best job of competing with him and beating him. Joining us now is political strategist and pollster frank luntz and the whole country doesnt know Mike Bloomberg, right . And polls could rise as the country gets to know him, but the core of the party knows hes a billionaire and hes stepping in to you know, youre already hearing them say Elizabeth Warren may not be the candidate but shes certainly going to be outspoken about him not being what the party needs youre going to hear hes a billionaire. The middle of the country dont care he was mayor of new york. Does he have a better chance than joe biden lots of people have come and visited new york over the last 15 years and theyve seen the difference first with rudy giuliani, then with Mike Bloomberg. This is not the same city of the 1970s and 1980s so they can see it with their own eyes second is you see the way that Mike Bloomberg speaks. Very calm, very laid back. There are a lot of democrats that dont like the yelling, dont like the screaming and theyre looking for someone whos much more reasonable third, arguably hes one of the most successful mayors in the country over the last 20 years in terms of the economy, unemployment, crime, jobs. He challenged the education establishment. This guy has a record of accomplish but the fact that he is a billionaire, its amazing to me that democrats who hate labeling, who talk about equality, its equality for everyone except the successful he may not be the main theme of the Democratic Party, and i dont think he is, but in the states where republicans and democrats can vote, hell pick up a large portion of the vote. On the Geographic Center of the left theyre not going to like him and on the left you have stop and frisk which thats going to come back to haunt him as well and also the obsequious pandering apology he was unwilling to give before he entered the race on the right you have big gulp, nanny states, his two biggest philanthropic ventures after leaving the office have been Climate Change and gun control. Joe, you didnt think he was going to run in the first place so lets give him you said Hillary Clinton was going to be the next president the night before the last election, too, so if you want to talk about predictions. No, i said based on your exit polling. Based on nbcs exit polling. All right so but on predicted, on polls, hes at 10 cents. Hes just above andrew yang at this point. Hes just Getting Started look, im not advocating for him and i dont think hes going to be the nominee, but you dont think hes going to be the nominee no. I still think its Elizabeth Warren. Youre still playing devils advocate to talk about him being a viable person . Whos going to be the candidate and why do you keep talking about him as if you do think hes going to be the candidate. Elizabeth warren. The reason why i love cnbc is that youre the only network where we can tell the truth, where we can analyze, where we can take a look at both sides. This is true. Youre not the only arbiter of truth youre not really there yet, are you . No. Im in search of the truth i know i havent found it yet. Maybe youve got it. He would have liked to have had it. Im in search of it. Were going to run another lets run this other sound bite and then well go back was anyone more wrong about the trump economy. Paul larry somers. Heres another sound bite from that interview addressing diversity in the democratic field. Part of the conversation is here we go, another old white gentleman. Isnt it time for change isnt it time for something new . Maybe but lots of people can enter there was no reason, if you wanted to enter and run for the president of the United States, you could have done that but dont complain to me that youre not in the race. Thats the problem. Frank, can i ask you a question to me the most interesting poll over the past couple of weeks has been the Approval Rating of President Trump in the Africanamerican Community it was 34 thats Approval Rating thats not necessarily support for the president , but it seems to me if the africanamerican vote is anywhere near 10 , its over for the democrats its not even remotely a contest. Is that right . I try to be careful about what i say about other pollsters and other polling. I dont believe t. I dont show it in my numbers donald trump is is even with Elizabeth Warren and hes even with some of the Democratic Candidates joe biden does have an advantage and we are one year before the election so its pretty dangerous to make any prognosis based on where we are but trump is not doing as badly among africanamerican menace he is among africanamerican women and i do think there is a chance that he could have a breakthrough, a surprising breakthrough, but make no mistake, there is a racial divide in this country politically and it is a disadvantage for the republicans, but at the same token, the democrats have been having problems with white men, particularly working class white men and donald trump won because he was able to win working class union voters in the northeastern and industrial midwestern states unlike any republican since ronald regan and for the democrats to recapture the white house, they have to win these 50 something and 60 Something White men that abandon the Democratic Party because they felt ignored and forgotten. So you think bottom line, you think Elizabeth Warren comes back, that she she was down, she went up, shes back down some people think its too early of a peek. You think she comes back when its all said and done the reason why is shes got the organization unlike any candidate except for bernie sanders. Shes raising more money than any other candidate except for bernie god, i can see a lot of main street People Holding her nose and voting for trump i could. With the merger stuff and everything else. Anyway, thanks thanks, frank. Thank you. Youre right, we are the only place that tells the truth maybe msnbc, too, and nbc news. When we come back, the countdown to the november jobs report is on well be right back. Beyond the numbers to examine Investment Opportunities firsthand. Like a biotech firm that engineers a patients own cells to fight cancer. This is strategic investing. Because your investments deserve the full story. T. Rowe price. Invest with confidence. This hour on squawk box, its jobs friday in america. Were just 30 minutes away from the november employment report and investors are paying close attention. Coming up rgts weelup, weu what wall street is watching for. Then bring you expert analysis as soon as the data lands. The final hour of squawk box begins right now. Good morning and welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc live from the Nasdaq Market site in times square. Im joe kernen along with becky quick. Andrew is off today. So our guest host, Jason Trennert u. S. Equity futures at this hour are indicated in the green up about 55 points on the dow up 6, s p nasdaq indicated up 23 treasury yields, which kind of interesting. Every utterance about china trade seems to move the 10year. We seem to be maybe a little bit closer to being back on track. Were ready, maybe, to reach the 1. 8 level again. Maybe maybe. 1. 8. Wait until you hear some of these stories that people are going to be talking about today. China saying it will waive import tariffs on some shipments of pork and soybeans coming from the United States. They say it was based on individual applications from companies though it didnt say how big the shipments were china hit the u. S. With a 25 levy on soybeans and pork levies President Trump weeted tweeted e subject of trade and trade development. Do not believe any article or story that you read or see that uses Anonymous Sources having to do with trade or any other subject. Only accept information if it has an actual living name on t. Fake news media makes up many sources say stories. Do not believe them. That has set off a bit of a twitter storm of other people saying hes been an anonymous source plenty of times before. It raises the question of what stories hes talking about are these the Anonymous Sources saying there is a trade deal or a trade deal is off. In the meantime, uber said its received 3,000 reports of Sexual Assaults in the previous year. It comes from the first u. S. Safety report. Its issuing this itself and it says it plans to issue this every two years with an effort aimed at highlighting a focus on rider safety uber says in the report that 99. 9 of its more than 2 billion u. S. Rides in those two years ended without a safety incident. And the United States now has one of the developed worlds lowest tax burdens a new oecd report says because of 2017 tax cuts, the only countries with the lower tax rates are chile, ireland and mexico. Tesla shares could rise to 500 a share if Morgan Stanleys bull case plays out and i dont mean sounds like were saying its a bull case no, its a bullish case. Not a bull the bears do think its still bull that its ever going to 500. Thats according to a new report from adam jonas, the analyst from morgan stanley. The price target for tesla stock remains at 250 but the report said the bull case could happen if the cyber truck is a success if the more optimistic scenario in china comes to pass. I didnt realize until today Jason Trennert, our guest host, said he shorted tesla. Got out. Mercifully i covered it in time but i certainly wouldnt have expected it to jump as much as it did. Glad i got out and check out the shares of al ulta beauty. They were essentially in line with forecasts as well they were boosted by sales in the higher margin cosmetic products. Also, the monthly jobs report is coming up in just under 30 minutes time they expect in addition to 187,000 positions to nonfarm pay rolls. Joining us is andy green hes managing director of Economic Policy at the center for american progress. Douglasholmes eakin, and oksan aranof of course our guest host is Jason Trennert doug, can you hear me . Yes, i can. Okay. Lets talk a little bit about what youre anticipating, what the most important numbers are people say the fed is not watching as closely. Obviously it does matter for the economy. Sure. I think well see about 150,000 jobs but thats largely the bounce back from gm. About 1 3 of that. Increasingly i think thats the number we should pay the least attention to the numbers im looking forward to are the wage Growth Numbers we have 5, 6 cents an hour the Labor Force Participation. Those are the indicators of is there going to be continued in flows that permits slack in the labor market or is it going to really tighten oksana, this time around were thinking that the economy has dodged this recession. However, the jobs picture is so important because it affects the consumer directly. Thats been whats holding up the economy at this point. Whats a good number whats a bad number . 180 something, which is what the consensus is expected right now, thats going to be a really hard threshold to beat so i think if you look at the past six months, right, weve been moving at an average of 150. We came into the year with a sixmonth average of over 200. The margin of error has been 50 either way on each number. As long as the numbers stay, the actual number comes in somewhere in that caller, the narrative will be whatever people want it to be, right everyone is going to see what they want it to see. Generally it will mean that the economy continues to be strong and the fed can continue to be on hold. Andy, we had been watching things this week and the adp number we got on wednesday suggested we could see a disappointment today then we saw the jobless claims, weekly jobless claims yesterday. It doesnt play into this time around it gives you a sense of whats happening in a momentbymoment basis. What do you anticipate well get with this friday number today . I think 180 is pretty reasonable this is a slowing economy. Its an increasingly slowing economy. President obama, he was creating 225,000 jobs the first year of donald trump first couple of years we were seeing 200,000 were now down to on average 170. Significant drops and i think youre seeing that play out in terms of you know why that is . You know why that is anybody i mean, the most uninformed viewer out there understands when youre at 12 unemployment, its a little easier to add jobs than when youre at 3 unemployment. I mean, come on. The africanamerican Unemployment Rate is twice that of whites. Are we back to that the lowest in history. Be happy its the lowest in history be half full we have more work to do. Give some credit its the lowest in history be half full dont be half empty. Come on. Look, im looking at what the results are for the working families and working families are not seeing the benefits of the economy. Were seeing billions of dollars, record corporate profits, record buy backs. Corporate profits have grown more than twice the amount of wages. You tell me this promised tax cut that has ballooned our deficit by more than 12 , has not yielded the wage growth but it has yielded the ceo pay, buy backs, massive merger and acquisition that squeezes working families thats this economy. Ill make an editorial comment here ive been in due to a heavy travel schedule ive been in 14 cities in the last two months in the United States and theres no recession. Theres not even anywhere close to rye session t recession. The economy is red hot id argue that the did he have cynt higher because of the tax cuts revenues are close to alltime highs right now. I do admit there is a problem with spending, but that long preceded President Trump so i think you have to be very careful about, you know, suggesting that the tax cut actually is the result of some sort of weaker Economic Growth bond yields and the markets and the economy itself tiptoeing around. You have to be careful in saying that what is wrong with you shy . Youre dealing with andy. Hes nuclear. They continue to decline in q3 by 1. 15 . If the promised boon was supposed to yield a private investment boom. Its not its the Consumer Holding the economy up. Its not holding the economy up in some ways the trade war sterilized some of the benefits of the tax cut. I would agree with that. Once you get a phase one trade deal in my opinion, Capital Spending will come back. Thats my opinion. I certainly wouldnt want to be short the economy going into next year. Itll come back in china because this trade deal was about making it easier for them to do business in china. Thats the amazing thing about it can we have some facts in this discussion . Oh, please. I mean look. Go ahead, doug. Your mikes not turned off i cant do it all. The demographic destiny is were going to create 100,000 jobs a month Going Forward. Youll have steadily rising increase in wages. Thats a good thing. On the tax cut, the treasury just finalized some of those regulations that affect International Locations in business could not possibly evaluate the effectiveness to the tax cut without having it fully implemented. We just got there. Lets get some data before making these claims. The problem with the tax cut and the problem with the wage growth is two things the tax cut incentive advises companies to put manufacturing overseas. Not compared to what it was before thats the wrong way to think about it no no no no no no. Not thats a statement about the level of comparison of this tax code compared to the previous tax code, which was a worldwide system with a higher rate, all of the incentives are to put more investment in the United States thats unambiguous the change to the tax reform puts it here. Weve got to end. Weve got to go. Keep following you around. We have Kevin Mccarthy coming up i hope he doesnt have an no, its okay if he does he can talk about some of this stuff. Thank you. Well be back. Be back in a little bit House Minority leader the biggest Sticking Point holding back the usmca and the effect the impeachment is having squawk box will be right back. What do advisors look for in an etf . Dont just track an index, help me meet a clients need. Is the fund built to sell or built to last . Etfs are only part of a portfolio. So make it easy to explain. Give me a quality fund that helps me get clients closer to their goals. Flexshares etfs are designed and managed around investor objectives. 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At t has americas best network, now with our best plans, at our best prices, starting at 35 a line for 4 lines. New from at t. Welcome back to squawk box. House minority leader Kevin Mccarthy is concerned. Part of the usmca. Joining us now, House Minority leader, Kevin Mccarthy. Yeah, we were talking about it every day we talked about just in general things that congress could be doing so that there might be a tailwind for what is already a pretty good economy. It could be even better and were just stuck in the mud not getting anywhere we know why. What do you think the prospects are that we get out of the mud i dont think very good. Well, weve got nine legislative days to go we dont have a budget we dont have funding of government weve got impeachment hanging over our head. Weve got more than a year since usmca was signed they ares so many numbers coming out whatever those numbers are they would be higher if we passed usmca. About 176,000 more theres a different element to that as you have that conversation about our trade agreement with china, you know whats happened in the last few months that canada and mexico, mexico is our number one trader, we would be a stronger position with our third trader, china there are so many elements that make america stronger. Whats going to hang up is the speaker has all the power to call the bill up if she does, it will pass. If you look across this country, there is nobody opposing this. They know it only makes us stronger but it becomes a political question, that shes more concerned with maybe tearing down this president instead of building this country up yeah. So you dont think nancy pelosi you think the reason its not Going Forward here in central is because Speaker Pelosi wont bring in and you dont expect that to that has been the play the whole time, but i do expect it to come. This is why. We have been out making the case if you look at all the times usmca has been mentioned here in congress and others, the republicans have done it 91 of the time, 8 on the democrats side, but we have really built a ground swell of support across this nation and theyre beginning to fill it and hear it the real challenge here is that the democrats run for reelection. Theyve issued more subpoenas than theyve created laws. I have to give them a lot of credit they never backed away regardless of all of this impeachment. Lighthizer has done an amazing job. The Vice President has been out there. I actually believe we get usmca done does i mean, im just wondering whether do you think Speaker Pelosi wants to have the Impeachment Vote before the usmca . And would she do that on december 21st, right before christmas, with zero i thought it was going to be bipartisan the only way it will be bipartisan is when some Democrats Join their house members in notvoting for it. Would she do that december 21st . Well, i think she has us here until the 20th she wants to hold us longer, added another week that time line she wrote a long time ago when she wanted to impeach this president she already had it written, the only problem is she has no proof. Fair to say she was praying for that time line or spending more time praying for President Trump . Look, i dont know. The one thing i do know, she loves to impeach this president. She has now jeopardized her majority she has given everything to impeachment. Think of all the investigations. Think of name me one thing that the democrats one problem they have solved and thats a real problem for them it seems to me she went reluctantly into this. Shes worried about the political implications to the party. Early on she didnt want to do this it seems like shes gotten to the point. Early on it seemed like she thought it could hurt the democrats. That was before ukraine right youre right about that. If she had kept she set a criteria, a requirement to move forward. She said in march of this year that impeachment was so divisive to the nation it has to be compelling, overwhelming and bipartisan to move forward okay so we had a vote about impeachment inquiry. That bipartisan vote was to say, no, not to move forward. So she didnt adhere to that her compelling and overwhelming, theres nothing there. If you watch the hearing, just this week jonathan turley, who is a democrat, who didnt vote for trump, who is a constitutional scholar that i think is respected more than anyone when it comes to the constitution said this is the thinnest, weakest impeachment in the history of america, that there was no obstruction of justice, that there was no abuse. The only abuse would be actually moving forward with impeachment would be on those who move forward with it. That was an amazing statement. Had she waited 48 hours to get the transcript of the phone call, we would not be walking through this nightmare. Jason leader, can you speak a little bit about Prescription Drug prices and hr 3 and how you see that playing out i know you have a meeting coming up in the next couple of days. Well, im actually walking to a meeting directly after this interview because the republicans have a bill, hr 19 because you know why we have the number 19, because we can lower Prescription Drug prices this year in 2019 the challenge with hr 3 is its going to eliminate all of the cures in the future. It takes away that r d so many families i lost my father to cancer so many families have so many challenges when it comes to medical. This is not this is going to harm us going into the future. And hr 3, of what they want to do, is really not going to lower the drug price its going to harm our future of solving these cures, which we have hr 19 and this is something thats so exciting every element in it is bipartisan weve had a number of bills that came out of committee where every republican and every democrat voted for it that actually lowered pricing but the speaker changed the bill before it got to the floor. Were going to give an opportunity that we can make law. Hr 3 will never be law, but we can make law with hr 19 that would lower the drug prices, make sure that we have new cures in the future and move to a more prosperous country, especially when it comes to medicine. Weve got to go bring it back quickly. I just am noticing something and wondering what the response is going to be because its going to be probably next year and then theres an election next year so its going to be within like eight or nine months, ten months of 11 months, i guess, of the election. Im wondering how it plays out i saw carl rove defending President Trump to the max yesterday. Now hes a bush guy so where did that then i saw 95 of the gop is now behind trump. Are the democrats sure this is the right strategy to consolidate power in the republicans . I have never seen it before for trump . If you look at intensity on a cnn poll and others, when you think about and see what the democrats have done from the moment they got elected, jerry nadler ran to be the chair of the committee based on impeachment based on he would be the best on impeachment. Congresswoman talib the first day telling us that she was going to impeach this individual that night you had al green actually admit why did he submit impeachment on the floor . Because he said if we if we do not impeach him, we cant beat him. Im not sure that helps the cause. I think they have to think it through. They do not believe anybody outside there can beat the reelection. Hes not going to be removed but they figure it can hurt his chances in november, thats what theyre figuring that is so true in modern history theyve never gone after impeachment of a president in the first term. Leader mccarthy, thank you. Thank you. When we come back, the governments monthly jobs report wall streets waiting for the number of the morning. Expectations right now are for 187,000 jobs to have been added ayituswel rh of november. St wh , lbeight back nervously ready . Ok, ready sweetie . Nice, you ready to go again . Are you ready, dad . Im ready. Imagine if your Life Insurance could help you live for today and safeguard tomorrow, so youre ready for anything. Life insurance designed to protect generations of families. Thats the power of pacific. Ask a financial professional about pacific life. Ugh, another electronic signature. You have to print, walk, sign, scan, recycle, walk, email yourself. Really . More walking, try again, waiting, recycle, walk, email yourself, then get back to your day. Or not. This isnt working. Introducing samsung paperless workflow solutions. With the galaxy tab s6, you can sign Digital Documents onscreen, with a finger or your s pen. Samsung business solutions. There are things we would change about work. And there are things we wouldnt. When work is worth it. Work is worth it. Work can be closer to home. Pay more. Make us proud. Careerbuilder. Work can work. Find your work at careerbuilder. Com all right. Welcome back to squawk box. We are just a few seconds away from the november jobs report. The market has been anticipatin a gain of 186,000 jobs for november Unemployment Rate seen at 3. 6 the dow futures up by 53 f nasdaq up by 21. Ylan mui. 266,000 nonfarm payrolls rose by 266,000 jobs in november. The Unemployment Rate also fell back down to 3. 5 putting it back at the lowest level in 50 years. Average Hourly Earnings up by 7 cents. Its a 3. 1 increase over the year previous jobs numbers were also revised upwards. Septembers number was pushed up by 13,000 jobs going from 180,000 to 193,000 jobs. Octobers number was revised upward by 28,000 jobs going from 128,000 to 156,000 and that means that there are 41,000 more jobs than were previously recorded putting the threemonth average at 205,000 jobs. There was strong hiring across the board. Manufacturing, that sector increased by 54,000 jobs in novemb novembe november Motor Vehicles and parts was up. Thehealth care and leisure and hospitality, both added 45,000 jobs the Labor Force Participation rate, that ticked down by. 1 from 63. 3 to 63. 2 and the broadest measure of unemployment fell from 7 to 6. 9 . Thanks, ylan. Its hard to believe that the other organizations dont let the world leader in business get the information out first and start talking. Did you hear it . Everybody gets the same thing. I just would think they would defer to us and let ylan do her job. That would be the way to do it. Absolutely. Heres what im going to say, steve. You can afford it, joe. Youre going to like it when we get news thats not so hot, we dont worry about rates coming down anymore and say, wow, im hoping for that when we get news it is hot, we dont immediately think, oh, my god, the feds back in the market and rising. Were in a different place. In a different place. This is hot 24 is hot the market went up. The dollar index went up a bit which is interesting is nick there . Stock market went up 85 points. Rick, just say real quickly, the fed is not in this game right now. Is this hot enough that it brings them back in or no . No chance . I dont think so. I think powell has been very plain spoken that hes looking for an inflation number in the 2. 5 to 3 range. This would have done it. Sustained over no, no, no a month ago this would have absolutely. Absolutely we lack a mechanism for the transmission we dont know how were going to get there. I continue to believe its global growth, which is the now the new supply chain we live in that the biggest and realest scare weve had on inflation was when europe when we had the global synchronized growth. With the velocity money where it is given the burden of the stress test, whats happening in the reap poe market, its just hard to get inflation in my opinion. I dont think thats right. All of the inflation is in financial assets, its not in goods and services. Okay. Is it you do have a steve, there will come a time where we get a number like this and we check predict it for the 2020 election. Its a good number for reelection. Im trying to see where it came. I think ylan had a very nice description of it, which is that its kind of across the board. First of all, you have the 41,000. 41,000 additional jobs. Right, because of the strike. Im going back to the chart that i showed, the threepart chart ive shown it twice on tv and written squiggly stuff over it three ear ras of job growth, 200 plus, down below 150 and then 180 range. Im going to take 40 off of this, come down to 220 or so and im going to say, look, where are we we might be back in a zone where were doing 200,000 and nobody can explain where this is coming from. Let me get everyone back in oksana, doug, andy, rick, steve we already mentioned, Jason Trennert better than you thought. Great, strong number. We got revisions to a couple of prior numbers and this kind of supports what weve been saying all along, which is that the fed can afford to at least be on hold here and the narrative thats really dominated the markets recently, which is that rates in the u. S. Are going to 1 or zero just doesnt stand up to the economic data. Where do you think the jobs market how do you explain this you have certainly more people entering the job force. I mean, you are seeing wage increases, as we said before, even in kind of some of the lower tiers, but we have to really dig into the numbers, which i think is what steve is really doing to see what is driving this the bottom line is that the economy is strong and we have a market that is really showing this really strange dichotomy where our rates are flashing recession, whereas, our spreads in the fixed income markets are saying, everything is great. That does not compute. Right now the rates simply do not andy, youve got to have some broad shoulders, dude. I cant wait to hear your take on this. Youre going to have to represent the entire other side yourself i think youre up to it from what i saw the last time whats wrong with this two things, one, what were seeing is a result of a tremendous crash and a very long recovery you saw the average the real wealthy average middle class American Family collapse by 49 between 2001 and 2010. It was a deep financial crash and recession. Its taken a long time to come back, and thats great, but the real point is this recovery is an obama yellen recovery it is in spite of everything that trump is doing, not because of it. If it were because of it we would say hier gross private investment we would see wages going up. Was that you, rick . Whos laughing thats not nice. I am. Im sorry. I just heard the janet yellen part i didnt mean to be political. Janet yellen and ben, if we attribute all of this to them, we really are wearing rosie glasses. Ill take janet yellen every day. Im not arguing that you would. Im not arguing that you wouldnt a market a person that pays attention probably wouldnt. Well, well see about that. You know, at a trillion dollars of buy back, the economy continues to perform for those at the very top and no unsupervisory wages. You take the wages at the top out, nonsupervisory wages are continuing to be stag napt this is not working for normal people. No, thats just not true. Lets talk about the numbers in the report which are simply spectacular. This labor market continues to defy gravity how we create over 200,000 jobs when the population is growing so slowly is contributing to the fact that the labor market should be collapsing and its staying solid. The wage growth is there this is a report everyone should be thrilled with. Point out the wage gains, doug people can say whatever they want, where are the actual snums what do you see . You take a look at our best indicator of wage gains, which is the employment cost index which has both benefits and cash compensation, thats rising in real terms at about 1. 1 thats about the rate of productivity growth. Thats exactly what you would expect its 15 higher than what you would expect in 2015 we can do even better. This is a good report if there was no trade war would it be 366 . I think you might have additional spending additional Capital Spending out there and when you that would be unbelievable. Do you think this could be revised down it could be i mean, look, i think that its hard to be a human being and not say more jobs is better and good for everybody. I just i just dont see how you we dont want you to say that. Well, what i was just thinking was, rick, its a little reflexive of us because we do this all the time. There is sort of kind of a bit a rate cut built in towards the end of the year. Im seeing that come off a little bit in terms of any kind of reaction at all in the fixed income market that might relate to the Federal Reserve rate. Nah you know, if you have a glow in the dark watch you dont worry about radiation poisoning. What theyre pricing in for year end is that minimal is stick if you start looking down the road to april, may, june of next year, the contracts are selling off. Right right. The contracts are going lower, which is taking out the notion of an ease. Theres definitely an asymmetric presence here. Thats what were all talking about. A strong number brings in less concern about a tightening than a weak number brings in potential for an ease, but then again, who knows you know, the economy could really heat up people could concentrate more on the positives of the economy than look in the history books look at some of those average Hourly Earnings in 2012, 13, 14, 15, 16. They werent where they are now. We had a revision to average Hourly Earnings from 3 to 3. 2 im sorry, thats really nice. 3. 1. This is the, what, 21st month in a row that unemployment has been at or bow low 4 and the dollar index is up a quarter of a cent since the number Interest Rates generically are up five basis points since the number it really doesnt change the outlook. Ill tell you what, this is goldie locks for equity investors. It really helps we keep attributing every move in this market when it goes higher to china trade, positive comments meanwhile, percolating underneath it is an economy adding 266,000. Imagine if we passed a trade agreement where wed be . Shocking i think theres a lot of concern. You have leverage lowes shaky, clo shaky, tremendous concern in that market. You see the inches city tooust you see the inches city tooustul investors flowing out of that market i think theres a lot of caution signs out there and so i obviously am not quite as rosie as the others. Oksana . A couple of points. I mean, on the wage gains that weve seen, just to kind of hit on inflation a little bit, because inflation is a myth that we stopped believing in and i think that the threshold is there certainly not in the camp of believing that inflation is upon us in any sort of major way. I think the threshold there has gotten so, so small. If we continue to see the wage gains particularly in some of the lower income areas, all of a sudden a couple of stronger than expected prints on inflation can push the narrative in an entirely different direction on what was just mentioned oksana, just real quick im looking at 3. 14 year over year average Hourly Earnings on the weekly, because 3. 14 on the weekly, too. I think the metric the fed has talked about is add inflation, add productivity and its a number above that that would be inflationary so i dont think we still have a percentage point to go on wage growth before we have an inflationary impulse. We certainly have a long way to go until inflakes sort of enters the narrative in any meaningful way i think in the fixed income space weve discounted it. Can i just point out the futures this morning were watching this. Dow futures up by 166 points we were only up by 5 before we got this number. Dow up triple digits before this report the market is absorbing all of these things steve, to your point, the fed not getting back into it the phillips curve is dead and President Trump is still there in my opinion. At a certain point what do you mean that explain that to me. Youre not going to get inflation any time sooner and even despite the fact that you have a lower rate. At a certain point youll start to see Wage Inflation thats so strong the fed has to get involved, but its not there are real wage gains. Remember that exchange when powell was on in the congress and he said, this is not really a hot labor market and he looked at wages and said, when i basically said, when i see wages soaring, thats when ill know the labor market is really tight. And the inflation is certainly not, you know, any sort of stronger than expected print. Going to bring the fed in. He can change things where yields are so different. Look at what the german bund market has done here when the most hawkish bank here has turned out and the ecb has turned dovish. From minus 70 to minus 30 allowing the u. S. Rates to establish a higher ceiling my point being is when we bring it back to portfolios, which is what we do essentially, portfolios are not positioned for anything other than a world in which rates are continually lower and spreads are continuing tighter and thats starting to you might hold on jim paulsen, we have him on and this is like we didnt need to book him and we dont need to send a camera. This is kind of cool joe, this feels like this morning. It feels like were exiting a recession. We never had a recession but we did in many peoples minds and now just like at the end of past recessions, the data is forcing everyone to say there was we werent and this expansion and its corollary bull market are back and have full potential. I think thats a little optimistic because i never was in the camp of thinking there was going to be ill answer you. What this number does is take people that were in the recession camp and say, you know what, thats the wrong call. There were people waiting and wondering, we had a slowdown in Economic Growth. Theyre wondering, was that going to slow down this shows it hasnt. The irony is despite the duration of the expansion, which is the longest expansion in postwar history, were not particularly late in the Business Cycle everyone has been saying were late in the cycle. This suggests that jim is right, were not as late despite the cramer at the beginning of the week said nothing is setting us up for december of last year. Thats because were in an economic rainout right in the middle of the expansion. Thats the problem rainouts dont count the game gets continued. Thats a good point, rick you can politically spin that or economically spin it 201516, we had a market slowdown in the economy and we really shifted down in growth by about half a point from potential. You had a big decline in Capital Spending you could put whatever you wanted on it. Manufacturing numbers you had a crash in oil prices you had a big decline in oil Service Spending whatever was going on at that period in time and i think rick has an excellent point we had this pause that is perhaps refreshing okay. Were going to go were going to go but im just rick, go ahead. I took his thunder. Im sorry, rick. That was his points. Markets are higher, rick. Whats going on . Markets are higher, but ill tell you what, as much as i like what i see with this number, weve definitely slowed a bit and its harder and harder to keep the Interest Rates even in the zip code of 2 lately. This was a good number its still i mean, yeah, were at 185 if we closed, we have the highest close since november 13th but, still, look where the predictions were 11 months ago for where Interest Rates would be now. Rick, we can also have its not crazy to think we can have a rise in rates to reflect a rise in growth its not just inflation that under pins the 10year yield i never think about inflation. Inflation in my opinion is the dumbest metric to calibrate all these central bank policies. They do it for a reason, because theyre indebted nations they see that the global pressure is serviced at the cheapest price possible. I get it i would like to see stocks go up, rates go up and the growth metrics go up. Which is the economy were looking for. Lets talk about the before and after. For anybody tuning in, we got the november jobs report 17 minutes ago now. Before that jobs report came out we were looking at the dow futures up by about 55 points. Now theyre up 172 points. Before the jobs report coming out you were looking at the 10 year we were looking at below 1. 8 now youre looking at the 10year at 1. 854 . It came in much stronger, 266,000 jobs versus the 187 estimate that estimate earlier in the week after we got a weak adp report was questionable. There were a lot of people wondering if the 187 was far too high they saw unemployment drop to 3. 5 , they expected 3. 6 had a shd to pick problems in any of these things. Markets are trading higher. Steve, our buddy and did i is goi andy is i hate to say this, the demographics have to be right. If doug is still there, i know we have to go, but thats the inexorable thing upon which economists base their forecast the number of jobs over some period of time must equal number of people available to fill those jobs that has not turned out to be a good working theory. I think eventually its got to be true. People are working longer because they dont have the resources to retire. This is a wealth class im not seeing the optimism. Theres good numbers i make an assertion you talk to ordinary working families out in a lot of leftbehind communities, theyre still hurting. Were going to bring in a market i want to make one point. It might not make a difference ill look at you when i say it the democrats it was probably a good move to do all of this stuff. If they had to talk about the economy and didnt have the impeachment to talk about, they really want to focus on impeachment the next couple of weeks. Thats what i would do sooner or later theyre going to run out of that. Lets bring in a markets laurie heinell is here from state street Global Advisers lori, these numbers stronger than expected. What does it make you think about markets . Across the board. Not just the print, but also some of the revisions from past months look, we have been pretty encouraged about the global economy, all this year we have seen improvement in the dark of the summer when a lot of other people were thinking that we were going to go into recession, we felt the consumer and Services Sector would help us kind of power hrough. This is validation that we are in a bit of an upward momentum here. You wonder, one thing i would just wonder, thinking about the not gone effects of this, u. S. Is looking sitting pretty right here which means december 15th, if it looks good for the u. S. , strengthens their hand, does it strengthen the president s resolve to say, okay, maybe it pushes us are we playing it forward, though, too much what are the job gains going to be in may, june, july of next year. I was going to put a little bit of rain on the parade, which is that i dont think the run rate is 266. We had a monsoon with andy. Little drizzle. I dont think the run rate is 266. I think it is fair to say somewhere in the 180 to 200 range, i hope it is sustained. It is double what we think we ought to be able to do you dont know where theyre coming from. You dont know where i can look. Participation rate, can that furnish jobs in may, june and july. You can bring young people back to work, bring men, 25 to 54 back to work and one of the phenomenon of our day is 65 and over increasing their Participation Rate theyre still actually bringing it down, because they generally there is more of them and they work in less number in less numbers than others, however, larger percentage of them now are staying in the workforce for whatever reason. If millennials decided to start working, would that i dont believe millennials will begin to work, joe, thats thats not true we got lots of them here. Im just kidding. Youre not, though. I am. I am. Are you changing your mind on millennials . I love millennials. Love how can you not . Theyre a group of people that are 25 to 40 and admit it, youre just focused on the demographic for our ratings is what youre all about. Hes been talking about how has he changed his mind how can you not like they all go through this stuff. What about xers maybe it is the wharton effect where do go from here where do we get the workers next year . Where do we get the workers next year . As steph said or are we wrong. Just to keep the pace with the working age population, were still we should still expect a number probably in the low 100s or around 100 so it is going to continue to be probably overall constructive story, though print to print, right, there is always going to be volatility. A lot of excitement around this table now. Maybe a little less of an exprint, but the economy continues to be strong. Lori, back to you on this what you telling investors to do if the economic backdrop is looking stronger, you take that together with the idea that the strengthens the president s hand, maybe the trade negotiations get hairier now what would you tell people to do in terms of investing . I think thats an important point, this whole trade issue. All year long, thats been what is giving the market sort of the heebiejeebies every time we start to feel like were getting on some sort of a footing, we have a breakdown in trade negotiations and that feeds back into slower manufacturing and less Business Investment so generally we have been constructive we have been saying to our investors that we do think that the economy is going to improve, and that these head winds should dissipate, but as you said, a strong number might actually lead to the opposite result. So were still constructive, were still in risk assets, and we still think that 2020 will be a good year because growth will continue to improve. Lori, thank you for joining us thank you to our jobs panel today, andy, douglas, oxsana, rick, steve, jason for sticking with us. Jim, keep looking at the New York Post website for a correction of that story they wrote about on monday about how december wasnt starting out so good. And how wrong you were going to be theyre not it is not forth coming, i dont think. You were exactly right about what a number. The economic backdrop, and there is good things happening, and it validates some of the moves, right growth with very little inflation, i wish people were making a little more money, obviously. We want people to make more money. There is a thought i dont know if you know him, the chairman of market and Investment Strategy at jpmorgan. He came up with a list of what the Cable Companies cable, cnn, msn, what do they cover number 16, 16th is positive economic news. All the rest of them are negative so you know whats going on here, joe. People dont want to say good things and this is the best number ive ever seen in my life is it going to i said this earlier, and is it can it last forever, jim . How can it last forever unless it is a Participation Rate i think it has to go up, joe. When we win the trade war, were going to win now, we have the better numbers, they have to put jobs here. Thats what they have to do. Not even talking about that yet. In the end, the chinese put jobs here because this thing is the president can walk away from the table with this number. You are so antinormal knee jerk thinking of the msn we could have more jobs coming back if we win the trade war. Wont see that written or said anywhere well, you know, sometimes the truth sets people free yeah. Thats a beautiful look, joe, you and i both know, these 50 years, okay, im 64, i didnt know about things when i was 13 and 14, other than the war, these are im not going to say it, you cant contradict these are the best numbers of our lives. Yeah. You cant we had guns and butter when we were doing these things 50 years ago. I dont see inflation, i dont see recession. 50 years ago that number was a curse. Now it is a blessing and, you know something, joe, i cant it doesnt matter whether you hate them or like them, these are real numbers someone said janet yellen numbers, that was funny. 1969, thats what am i going to do im not from the Nathan Johnson school of economics. All right, jim, kudos thank you. Well see you, i think youll have a good show today with youre fired up. Thanks dont miss a big interview on squawk on the street. I hope this will be awesome, with National Economic director larry kudlow he might see some positives around that. At at ths9 30 eastern time. 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Saved my life. What we do here at danafaber, changes lives everywhere. Everywhere. Everywhere. Everywhere. Everywhere. Markets have taken off on that stronger than anticipated jobs report. You see now, dow futures up 178 points the nasdaq up by 64. Jason, great having you here, thank you for joining us today. Great day to be here. It is much more coming on squawk on the street. Make sure you join us next week. Right now well turn it over to those guys bye good friday morning. Welcome to squawk on the street. Im Carl Quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange. There is one story this morning, and it is jobs 266,000 jobs created in november crushing estimates and taking the Unemployment Rate back to a 5 50year low of 3. 5 well talk to larry kudlow after the