Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20240713

How the sector is shaping up for the condensed Holiday Season, already december 2nd why jack dorsey is planning to spend a big chunk of next year in africa. Well discuss it even if we know nothing about it never stops us no as we enter the first day of trading in december, stocks are looking to maintain the upward momentum following what was the best monthly performance since june the nasdaq was the top performer over the three major indices its november gain was 4. 5 , jim, as we head into 2020, amazingly as that is we have to look at the likes of apple and facebook and the incredible gains and some of the laggards in technology it is hard to imagine amazon is a laggard, it has been performing as has alphabet. I think people should watch jpmorgan and United Health which bottomed at the exact moment when the of senator warren hit its peak i continue to believe like you do, david, it is way too early one thing i would say, there is no reason for jpmorgan to be up where it is, given the fact that the yield curve flattened. No need for United Health to be up where it is, they have a big analyst meeting. The economy is at all improving because the fed says it is no more need to cut, these are political stocks we spend too much time talking about the fed and not enough time talking about how the whoever is trading is completely addicted to the democrats. I kept saying it is too early as we kept covering Elizabeth Warren so closely. At the same time, the markets were paying attention to the point where those stocks were down, conceivably the companies that would be most impacted by warren presidency and then this rebound that we saute plaw takee as the poll numbers started to dip. Amazing. I think this move in jpmorgan is the one that is least covered. It is pure multiple expansion. Were paying the exact exact earnings power but were paying more and more for it as jamie dimon told us we would, ceo, eventually, but now were in this situation with what drives it further . Just what is the multiple now . What are we talking about here 14 for jpmorgan but what she still, yeah, 13 1 2 nothing worries me in the sense that looking for big selloff in december im looking for more reasons to it to go higher. And other than constant reiterations of analysts, which we keep getting. Because, wow, i mean, november is supposed to be a bad month, david and it wasnt. No, it was far from it as we just said. A great month greenchutes in europe, whic from auto sales. Are you seeing green chutes in europe . I havent heard you say that in years. Auto sales are up we saw brexit, a big matter. I do see take a stock like ge david, ge is at 11 they have a Healthcare Conference it is pretty investor day in a lot of good things. I see a lot of down and outers doing well i see a lot of companies that are levered to the enterprise, not doing well, take a look at dell, thats enterprise, cisco is enterprise. Yes. But the consumer, it is target doing great walmart doing great. Versus kohls doing terrible the have and have notes in retailers that we talk so often about. I think the companies did well we look at the adobe numbers, now the official tracker of retail sales. Well get to that in a moment. And i come back and say what the hell is caterpillar doing at 134 if there is no deal . What is it doing there that should be lower they missed the quarter last back to this idea you expressed with the banks it is interesting. Jpmorgan stock is up 35 for the year what the hey . The market cap eclipses 400 billion. As you say it not as though they have not been performing, but the market seems willing to give them a higher multiple than the past how high can that multiple go or are we is that enough i dont know. You got a good Balance Sheet, a company that is doing very well. It is a company that we didnt care whether it was doing well wait a second good it is a company it is a company, david, that all we cared about for five years was the net interest margin. Suddenly we started carrying about the fees we started caring about maybe theyll be in china, we started caring about the collapse of the european banks and how our banks are ascending. We feel the same way about bank of america we started thinking about maybe the regulation has finally died down because of the president. So, you know, we i just find the stock that doesnt want to quit and i say why and the answer is because people have decided that the next quarter is going to be kitchen sink david, you got the foremost Technology Banker running that bank. Charlie scharf, took over as the companys ceo. Do you think Elizabeth Warren can hector Charlie Scharf unlike what she did to the previous managers no why are we bothering talking about Elizabeth Warren, shes 14 in the polls i dont know who we should be talking about, by the way. That remains very much unclear it is early. So early. I would say that downgrading wells right here is not understanding what scharf can do i think scharf takes the ax to the bloated wells fargo. You do . Technologist. You think there will be job cuts typically we dont hear about those as you might imagine, companies dont advertise when theyre cutting jobs, only when theyre adding them. But they do happen it does happen you expect that it will be or described differently than were cutting jobs charlie is one of those guys, not a nice guy in business. I had an opportunity to spend a little time with him, very nice. It is about business. Not about friendship. Right this guy is going to go in, and he is going to say, all right, 25 of the peoplehere, we may not need. Lets digitize 25 it is not going to happen overnight. This analyst is basically setting you up to buy. I see many stocks being ulta saying negative. Deere, dow people saying negative things, roku, people saying negative things give me a break. Before we get to retail, as we start this month and head into next year, talk all about next year and the year and the decade that has been, im sensing you are youre not negative, but you are looking for reasons to believe yeah. I just want to find more reasons other than multiple expansion. Meaning continue to pay more for the same earnings. Thats to me, something that has been done year end because nobody wants to sell, they want to share they own stocks, apple, why do you sell apple . Were so close to 5g i dont know we keep taking up. Now im seeing 16 number for 2021. Multiple is not what it used to be. That makes it so it is inexpensive. I keep getting to try to give a longterm value like we do with gillette, longterm value for ra razors, service economy. They laugh they laugh they laugh at me it is a mistake to laugh at me. Let them laugh. Let them laugh. I dont care. Lets talk a bit about retail we have reached cybermonday if youre keeping track Online Retail is off to a fast start this Holiday Season. According to adobe analytics, Online Shoppers spent 7. 4 billion on black friday, the second Largest Online shopping day ever theyre estimating cybermonday sales, today, of 9. 4 billion. Dont even know if we should be it is just buying. When are we going to finally just say it is buying. This is not online, offline. We dont do single days. We dont do singles day. Mall versus no mall people are surprised kohls is buy online, pick up. I think this is have and have not. It is who spent. Who spent the money on all online or who offers the greatest bargains . Burlington with a shocking okay a lot of shorts. Didnt work. Macys, people still has to spend enough lots of suppliers are worried, they want to help fix macys, theyre not helping walmart, they dont need to walmart, david, is just a great online Offline Company thats the story of this year. You got to go back there can you go back . To walmart . Yeah. Oh, no. A third one, i dont want to do a third why not it is enough. So many other things. Now referring to the third documentary after two incredible david does documentaries. They were a long time ago. They were good. Carl did a documentary on juul. The first time they let anybody in we dont talk enough about how carls documentary opened peoples eyes to the problems of juul and it has been all think about what now i watch the ads i dont know if you watch the ads, they got lawyers now looking for people whose parents of kids who smoked juul, thats the beginning of the end you have lawyers chasing the plaintiffs bar, theyre relentless monsan monsanto monsanto, theyre going to find everybody who used roundup. Yes, as we pointed out many times, that may have been one of the worst deals ever, purchase of monsanto. There is five ge deals. Right up there. Right up there. Still aol and time warner. Thats a good one thats a good one. But ge, by the way, i think you emphasize the health group, you see that it is not just the fast growing health, they have Something Else going i do believe that we are at a point now, not yet, close, close to where ge can play offense larry culp might we got im told we got to move on. How many stocks can we mention before we have to move on the Steel Industry is still hurting because theyre using back door. Chinese back door through those countries and the devaluation of currency, thats another big poor argentina. That country is already oh, dont cry for me, argentina. To Courtney Reagan, she is inside a Walmart Fulfillment Center, there she is, in bethlehem, pennsylvania, filling us in on this important day thats ahead courtney reporter hi, david i heard you talking about walmart, here we are, here is one example. This is one of six campuses that walmart has that fulfills those online orders. This one covers 1. 2 million square feet. There is 12 miles of conveyors and from the time that you place your order on walmart. Com, it can be picked, packed and out for shipping in under an hour. They are expanding that next day delivery option, now in 75 of the country. But the cybermonday, those cybermonday deals are not eligible for that one, but two days, and in general, it is a very big day, the National Retail federation does expect that 69 million americans will shop today you talked about those records that we already set online on thanksgiving and black friday. Today is expected to be another one. 9. 4 billion expected to be spent today. That would be up about 20 from last year and mark the biggest day ever online at least in the u. S. We know singles day is still an awful lot bigger what changed is when we shopped on cybermonday we dont have to wait to get to work and use the high speed computers. We often have to wait until after work, once the kids are in bed, all the chores are done, the peak shopping isnt expected to hit between 7 00 and 11 00 p. M. Pacific time, around 10 00 here on the east coast and 30 of all online sales during the Holiday Season will have been done between thanksgiving and the end of today. A pretty big chunk now, were getting some early numb numbers, delivered, that Company Helps fulfill third party orders for sellers that sell on plat for forms like walmart. Com delivered said their volume was 3. 7 times a normal friday. It was above last black friday, about 3 times. Thats seeing a bump also, a name like shopify, that, of course, helps support some smaller and mediumsized businesses around the world, they saw 900 million in sales on black friday in the u. S sales were up 48 . And then fanatics, thats the Worlds Largest seller of fan gear, so they fulfill orders for professional teams, college teams, they had their best day ever on black friday, which is rare for them, fanatics usually sees their biggest day of the year on cybermonday. So they do expect to hit new records today. But they hit it early, and their sales for fanatics up 26 over the weekend. Jim and david, number one college team on fanatics, the Ohio State University this weekend. Back over to you all right. Winners win thats not a surprise. Yeah. You see fanatics, they stole that deal from nike. They pantsed nike. Thank you, courtney. Look, we have to know whether john donahoe is going to change the way nike works that was a mark barker giveaway, pathetic, the last act it was a bad act and we still want to know what happened there it is interesting that nike could have successions and we dont know what is going on for Great American company but that was a gave that business to rubin, the fanatics. Gave them all thestuff other than on field uniforms ill advised. Up next, jims mad dash, count down to the opening bell, 15 minutes from now lets give you a look at futures, you see what were set up for at this point as we start trading for december a lot more squawk on the street straight ahead welcome back lets squeeze in a mad dash as we get ready for the opening bell, 12 minutes from now. Want to talk a little wendys . Ever since wendys announced that they were going to do breakfast, the group had a top menu had the somehow mysterious issue, broke mcdonalds. I forgot about that sometimes so many headlines, so quickly i know, here today, gone tomorrow. Mentioned parker and nike we had an exit of parker what happened with Parker Parker was young donahoe goes there what happened to donahoe service now . Service now back to wendys, sorry. Stevens says wendys breakfast is going to succeed and a good fourth quarter. If thats the case, david, just go by wendys. Just buy Wendys Wendys has, youll love this, well get it, a honey butter chicken sandwich now, we know that that did wonders for popeyes. It really did. Wendys has the possibility here of a big breakout, not an expensive stock. I like this one. I think you have to buy it i think you have to keep it until the First Quarter of next year i remember theyre hiring 20,000 people, that bothered people people say how are they going to get 20,000 people . There arent a lot of people wendys has assured me they can, and ive got to tell you, david, inexpensive stock and the qsr category, quick serve. Not a lot of mcdonalds has this. True. Things are changing i think the walmart ads. Oh, my. So many walmart ads. And you saw that great piece by courtney, you know, david, thats another thing, it is hard to find people who want to work at those places. It is hard to find people who want to work at jobs that are minimum wage people want more they want a gym membership. You told me that. I know. Giving them out at the restaurant. My daughter went to the y what is the matter with the y . I think the y is fabulous. At the y for years. Thank you. One on 47th street. We got a lot more to talk about here a lot of stocks to keep an eye on by the way, pretrial briefs out on states versus tmobile and sprint we got an opening bell, ten minutes from now stayitus wh most people think of verizon as a reliable phone company. woman but to businesses, were a reliable partner. We Keep Companies ready for whats next. man we weave security into their business. Virtualize their operations. woman and build ai customer experiences. We also keep them ready for the next big opportunity. Like 5g. Almost all the fortune 500 partner with us. woman when it comes to digital transformation. Verizon keeps business ready. Of millions of americans during the recession. So, my wife kat and i took action. We started a Nonprofit Community bank with a simple theory give people a fair deal and real economic power. Invest in the community, in businesses owned by women and people of color, in affordable housing. The difference between words and actions matters. Thats a lesson politicians in washington could use right now. Im tom steyer, and i approve this message. Is that pgim, we see alpha emerging in the trendsete . Driving specific sectors of outperformance. Where a rising middle class powers a booming auto industry. A leap into the digital era draws youthful populations to mobile banking and ecommerce. Trade and travel surge between emerging markets. Every day, our 1,100 investment professionals around the world search out opportunities for alpha. Partner with pgim, the Global Investment management businesses of prudential. Seven minutes from now, an opening bell to start trading. Coming off a strong november for the markets, at least if you owned stocks opening bell coming up youre watching cnbcs squawk on the street. Were live from the Financial Capital the world. Opening bell set to ring about four minutes from now. Little time for jim and i to talk a bit about what we can expect we mentioned briefly i mentioned briefly a trump tweet from earlier this morning indicating immediate tariffs going back into place on steel, imports from both brazil and argentina, citing their declining currencies is the reason argentina san economic free fall, new president taking over the markets, didnt like it, they have 60 something percent Interest Rates what are you supposed to do . We have to understand that some countries devalue to take advantage of our country some countries devalue because theyre falling apart. Brazil, but argentina theyre falling apart people should be aware of this dont say that, things are so horrible s ha argentina, were talking about a country that still buenos aires, thats one most beautiful places. Early 1900s, top ten economies. Look, i think that anything that makes it so you can trans ship chinese steel is in cross hairs of the government, as it should be the chinese continue their ways, even as they say theyre not continuing their ways. You ship it through argentina, dump it. Argentina doesnt make that much steel. Brazil makes a lot of steel. Argentina, no. This is a calculated risk that the back door ends by the way, david, steel prices low. Steel prices are low. Steel stocks, you can add up all the market caps of all the major steel producers, they dont equal i dont even know trying to bring back the industry. U. S. Steel. New core remains a fabulous company, great Balance Sheet, can raise the dividend done a lot of expansion during the downturn. Market cap is 2. 2 billion not laughing 2. 2 billion. Well, look, there is so many industrials doing better, even though their earnings arent better back to the larger issue on trade, continue to get positive headlines, not much on the china potential china deal. The government doesnt roll back. Talking about them being millimeters away no, i mean, the governments initial plan was to take tariffs up as high as possible, maybe 30 and then once it got to 30, they can roll them back it was never their intention to roll them back until they got to 30 never their intention. So the idea has been, listen, if you play ball, we wont take them to 30 were not rolling them back. There is stories today that december would not happen and that there would be a roll back on the september 1st tariffs. I think the hong kong maybe the chinese are starting to think there may be a more aggressive strategy about hong kong, they didnt count on president hadnt been standing with the civil rights activists until recently yeah. You are still a believer that were getting a phase one well get a phase one im more worried about the upper lefthand column of the times, the deal with mexico and canada. Will pelosi, who came on mad money and said there will be a deal, can you do a deal while impeaching a president seems counterintuitive. You can counterintuitive. Got to compartmentalize. Yes get business done, potentially. Though not much gets done these days in d. C. All right. There is the applause building here as we get ready to start the trading day. Can look at our s p 500 real time exchange. Back at our headquarters, there it is. Most likely a little bit more green on the board here at the big board, the federal regulatory commission, ferp is in the house. Ferp has been very proregulation during this period, probably more than with obama. Theyre completely out of sync they have made it so that the partnerships are tougher to raise money. That group has been a complete disaster chesapeake and southwestern go their way, many will have to be redone and you cannot touch the mlps. Shore technologyies. Big surname prospect may not be what we wanted. A little thing here, lets lets give our viewers a sense of what youre talking about youre talking about a lot of the pipelines, the mlps that they have been the most the biggest bear market in in a while now. For all the rich people. A long time since kinder went the other way. Went from being he keeps buying, hasnt really done much and, again, if you have one of your largest customers, having to redo, then what do you do with this month was the first month we exported more than we imported it since 70 years but the types are competing. They built so many pipes out of the permian and now youre starting to read that the u. S. Is maybe drilling less next year. For the longest time, you talked about their being a glut and inability to get out of there. How did that happen . They built, they built the pipes. And even natural gas being exported, starting to export 7 billion cubic feet a day, the Energy Markets are bad here. The new york terminal, the free port the dominion terminal doing quite well the thing i worry about here, david, you look at apache you see anybody apache doesnt have the worst Balance Sheet, but the Balance Sheets are horrendous for a lot of oil companies. And they need oil and gas, natural gas so bad. We talked a bit not much about the credit market starting to be a bit discerning when it comes to certain things including the energy names and lbos too some attempts that have not been well received and at least when they hit the debt markets to see if the money would be there. Depends on the credit, always. They arent quite as generous in the last month how about lbos that came out of the retailers michaels, doing particularly poorly party city, david. Lbl. Being ground down by the helium shortage helium is a natural chemical, second only to hydrogen, in terms of its abundance and party city is being dollar tree talked about it. Dollar tree talked about it i didnt know about the helium shortage until then. He came on and talked about it 30 basis points in terms of their business, who knew who knew . Thats why i love coming in you learn something every day. I didnt know there was a helium shortage now i know about it. I have some understanding as to why, im not completely clear. Not completely clear, no. But thats the the bull market, not the market, the fun market for when you get your teeth done and talk really funny. Let me give you something that is not funny that is important. Okay, you go ahead and ill do sprint and tmobile. A great man, a man i love, a man who has been a tremendous person, guest, philanthropist, mark butler, who is the chairman of the board, president , ceo of Ollies Bargain outlet, remarkable job, just passed away i have been invited to do hes done some great things with charity. I think thats first second is he built a great company. One of the great bargains. And it is astounding, not that long ago, with my wife, he truly his first cause, cal ripken was one of his ripkens charities. Got it. And i hope i wish the best for his family. Sorry to hear that. Tough time. Sorry to hear that. All right. Lets talk a bit about sprint and tmobile, of course. The deal that, well, we talked a lot about it through the at this point were getting on year and a half or so right but an important moment coming up next week on the 9th i think the 9th. Theyll begin their trial where the states and now theyre all Democratic State ags, and i mention that because some see it through political light, texas having removed itself recently but are going up against these companies saying, you know what, your plan to combine is going to be anticompetitive. We got the pretrial briefs filed just the other night and we have a number of people looking at them, those who analyze these things to try to understand what it means, and, well, thats basically it, and those who are investors as well. The plaintiffs just to give it sort of a very brief overview, the states in question here say, hey, listen, this merger would increase concentration in what is already a concentrated market higher prices are going to hurt poor consumers and the remedy, they say, the remedies that they are seeing, for example, dish and the spectrum it is getting and the boost mobile, thats insufficient to offset competitive harm they go on from there to talk about a lot of other things as well but thats sort of some of the keys here. The companies on the other hand are saying, efficiency, efficiency, efficiency from doing this deal, it is going to put us in a position where were going to be able to offer lower prices, perhaps not going to happen right away, but soon and then for a long period of time were going to be able to bring high quality, lower cost than if we were stand alone or capacity increases will enable competition, and dish is going to also be a vigorous entrant into the market, they say, as well somebody i follow, paul gallon, analyst at kalyns Research Group comes out his take and he says states are likely to prevail in a tmobile sprint trial. Hes not alone hes not alone you go through the basics and the hhi, the way you measure competition, the index that do that, you know, theyre going to say that tmobiles core efficiencies argument, the doj analyzed the merger and said the result would be increased prices and any efficiencies generated by the merger are likely to offset the likely anticompetitive effects on American Consumers it could come down to that it is a real possibility the states could prevail we wont know. Trial will be held david, this is very important. Ill tell you something. You know who is leaving . You know is leaving tmobile yes, john legere. Why would i want to own the stock . The reason why you own tmobile is because of the leadership of john legere. John legere leaving made it so unless there is a deal, david, you cannot own this stock. John legere is the man who singlehandedly built this company. It will have impact if in fact it doesnt go their way they havent extended the merger agreement, theyre in this weird day to day, who knows. But they havent extended their merger agreement the reason it is focuses is extremely important to sprints future to tmobile, to softbank which does have a good amount of the debt, not all of it, and, you know, masa has gone through this many times, a lot of sprint debt on the Balance Sheet, but the sprint portion of amount is 5 trillion yen, not 17 trillion, in terms of gross debt and what they have the obligation suffice to say it will have an impact on softbank, under pressure as we know, given the per foreign minister a performance of the vision fund and dish which has plans to become a nationwide 5g wireless provider over time there say lot of play here and were going to stay focused on it. The pretrial briefs if youre interested, worth a read, and, again, at least some people coming out i know a number of investors also who are of the belief, jim that the states conceivably will be in a position to prevail. As judge more raro, i believe his name is, begins that trial, less than a week from today. No, one week from today. Ill tell you, this is incredibly important as you read the papers, you see the huawei has moved far ahead there are several companies in china way ahead of us in 5g. What did you think of the reports about the huawei phone that is more or less not using any u. S. Parts any longer. Over and over we heard that couldnt happen. Teardowns confirm that the power amplifiers all the way through, u. S. Components, ubs still present in some smartphones, but not many. They havent gotten rid of all of them, they say. Several components being used in the may 20 times 5g, but theyre moving that way. Im kind of aghast about this attorney general they dont understand. 5g is National Security to them. I think it is really important and we, verizons got a decent, at ts got a decent, but the way to jump was to merge these two companiy companies. Tmobile and sprint . Absolutely, look. Remember, i remember when it was first proposed. That is what they pirb puush the National Security focus and the fi5g around the country. Well see, jim, what happens in that trial want to talk about roku . Mentioned it quickly earlier. The stock is so expensive it is so expensive i dont understand how people just keep buying it. And the idea, of course, is that every time you see more disney subscribers you see more to roku ridiculously overvalued. Every single time someone tries to call top of this thing, it has failed so i want to be did you get your disney plus yet or not yet we didnt get the disney plus yet. I have espn plus i find it is everybody wants it i didnt care for the irishman. I watched half. Twothirds. It is 3 28. One of the greats of all time, but they could have cast younger people it is just too old. And the latin casino really, it was a detroit situation. De niro is playing it doesnt no, it is, like, hey, guys, i love the reunion. Young joe pesci or old joe pesci . Is there a Young Joe Pesci wow. This is something everyone is talking about, it is going to boost netflix. Maybe so. Ill finish watching it all that, i got to watch the whole thing. They got we all got old. We all got old. Bit way, nike, piece by morgan stanley, talking about consumer direct offense. Mike rubin i think did well. Mike rubin is not saying, i crushed nike they have a Good Partnership Great Partnership. The best partnership in the world. Maybe the single greatest partnership. I think nike, my view, nike shouldnt have given it to rubin. You talk about this you have to explain to people who he is and what this is. The guy comes on squawk all the time has a piece of the sixers. One of greatest investors of all time and Great Partnership with nike i dont mean to make it sound like he does but nike is doing well. You backing off now no. I read this piece. Trying to figure out why nike is up so much rubin, i regard him as a friend. We did good stuff together at the same time, i think nike, with i want to know what happened with mark parker and i think we have to find out. Got it. Im on it. All the ceo changes it was stunning it was stunning. How is that how is it that you could have a guy like easterbrook be the face of mcdonalds and then hes gone i know. Easterbrook gone. Gone. Gone. When you talk with spouses about this stuff, they often say, jim, to me, why does it mean nothing to you . Why dont you spend more time on it on what on what happened. Easterbrook was not married i dont know. Not a spouse issue or anything else. He just set a policy he didnt obey. I dont look, i dont agree the idea is we should spend more time on it, but i do think female viewers in particular who said why are you glossing over it i dont think thats fair i dont think we glossed over it at all. Okay. You know what, we got to move on. I just i just think that mcdonalds, not the same no. We talked spent a lot of time, a lot of time talking about easterbrook. In hiding here. I dont know who is he. The new ceo. Hes in hiding. One guy not in hiding, bob pisani. Not at all. Hes right out there on the floor. Hes got more on whats moving. Good to see you again it is great to be back as always here we started positive move to negative territory, cyclicals doing better, banks doing well, yields are up, good for banks overall. That makes it tough for home builders, theyre down today energy strong, despite whats going on with apache industrials was positive, now flat utilities also slightly to the downside on the higher yields. The big story over the weekend, this was really late last night was the china pmi numbers. The global slowdown story has been very powerful this year look at this, suddenly we were in positive territory. This is the official pmi not the flash one. Consensus was 49 1 2 and 50. We had to be above 50, that would be expansion since april in china this is all adding to the narrative that perhaps were seeing some kind of bottoming in the Global Economy were seeing some data points that support this. This was very, very supportive of this narrative overall. If you look for december, it is a very positive going into december, the numbers positive we know this is best month, up since 1950 thats the average look at this, 60 thats strong. Going into december, thats an excellent setup. Because you have so many stocks including small cap stocks that have been strong recently, thats why the russell 2000 is breaking out 52 week high last week not a historic high, but 52week high, thats because you get all the stocks slowly moving up in the last month or so take a look at what the year to date, what we have been doing here, all 11 sectors, even energy is positive, maybe 2 for the year s p stocks, 400 out of the s p 500 are up going into the end of december last year at the end of december, 17 4 were up we had that horrible december and everybody is concerned, even those concerns are slowly going away we see the differences now, december 2019, and december 2018 here just put that up and see whats going on in 2018, the fed was tightening, now the fed is not tightening. It is a best neutral we had a trade war that was getting more aggressive in 2018. Now lets call it hard to characterize, lets call it an uneasy truce and the Global Economy, we had people slashing earnings estimates like crazy going into 2019 still down a little bit going into 2020, but not nearly as bad. You see talk about bottoming and no discussion about recession. We do have some companies that are sitting out there on the tax laws list. We know we had some big losses in retail last year. A lot of people are short Retail Stocks big article in the journal about this so there is macys thats down dramatically occidental petroleum, 3m, these are stocks you can mention, maybe on the tax selling list that we got. Barons had a story about that over the weekend, highlighting a couple of these names. Again, overall, the setup for december really couldnt be much better guys, back to you. Okay, bob, thank you. Bob pisani lets head over to the bond pits now, join Rick Santelli and the cme group in chicago good morning, rick. Good morning, david it is going to be very fascinating at 10 00 eastern to get our national ism we see how various global isms have altered the landscape coming in this morning, especially in the Interest Rate side look at twoday of twoyear note yields, up three basis points, popped a bit the further down the curve you go, the bigger the pops get. Look at twoday of 10s here we sit up 7 basis points, open the chart up to november 6 and you can clearly see that we have rebounded and that spike high in november right around 189, 190, it continues to be an area to pay close attention to, but then again, look at how sideways we have been in this range under 177. So we did pop above it two day of bunds, bunds up 8 basis points today open that chart up to november 1st, what you see is that if you look at the smallest negative that we have had going back to july, it was at minus 22 the reason minus 22 is important, of course, is because the closer to zero we get under Christine Lagardes watch, the more euphoric the market gets. Maybe it wont be Monetary Policy, more fiscal policy, finally the dollar index given some of last weeks ground back as you see on the twoday chart there, do keep in mind, tight ranges, but steady to the upside lets call it a week and the curve has steepened today, about 3 basis points, 10s to 2s. Jim, david, back to you. Rick, thank you Rick Santelli. Check out our podcast, by the way. Listen to the opening bell hour of squawk on the street wherever you listen to podcasts. Well be right back. If youre on medicare, remember, the annual Enrollment Period is here. The time to choose your medicare coverage. 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[sfx mnemonic] as we begin the final trading month of 2019 theres a look at the top performers on the s p 500 so far this year yes, his favorite ceo lisa sue advance micro having a great year in the stock market up over 111 xerox not far behind it. In that battle it is a battle with hp up next, we have stop trading with jim all right. Lets get to jim for stop trading. You want an industrial that is a lot like roku deere. Deere this morning, back on the market goes from they reported last week hold to sell okay saying that its just moved too much and it is a china stock at the same time bemo says you got to buy it because its got a floor underneath it. Im with bemo. David, deere is an incredible stock given the fact that it is considered to be a china play. Yeah. Dont sell deere. Buy deere. Buy deere right here. Cat, too . Tattoo . Caterpillar. Moved up too much. Tattoo. Everybody has tattoos. Guy in fantasy island yeah. Cat is not a buy in the middle. Deere is in the middle. What do you have on mad tonight . Cyber arc one of the best than fort net and then e health. This thing snuck up. It is such a winner but we have to ask udi mokady, how do they make sure that someone doesnt take the intellectual property with them . He is good with the stops of privilege account. Top guy leaves, immediately the bad guys look and try to get the password, get in there the password is like his dog and his daughter. I know. 1234567. How pathetic. Now they dont let you do that you got to have an exclamation point and capital my daughter mistakenly tried to get a job saying she wanted the coo. I wont start anywhere than the coo. I think thats top for being a teacher and a suicide counselor. Ill see you tomorrow if not sooner. Great to see you. Speak to you later. Absolutely. We are awaiting comments from President Trump departing for the nato summit. Shgte take you livto wainon when squawk on the street returns. 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Partner with pgim, the Global Investment management businesses of prudential. Welcome back to squawk on the street. Rick santelli here with breaking news october read on Construction Spending, expecting up close half a percent boy, big disappointment. Down. 8. Last month we lost not good numbers turning last month negative with this month means this is the fifth negative Construction Spending month this year and minus. 8 is the weakest number since june when it was y minus. 9 this is the National Number for manufacturing, 48. 1. Disappointment there, as well. 48. 3 last month so you can see only a couple of tenths worse and the previous month is 47. 8, the weakest number since june of 09 and still higher than the lowest recent comp, below 50 and lost two tenths. On the employment side, from 47. 7 to 46. 6 do remember we have adp and the big jobs report this week and if we look at prices paid moved higher 45. To 46. 7 and finally new orders, they dropped from 49. 1 to 47. 2 so everything this monthing is in contraction mode under 50 david, back to you. All right that was some market moving data that we just got thank you. Good morning, welcome back to squawk on the street. Were live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. Carl and sara both have the morning off. Lets look at the markets and they have moved decidedly in negative territory in part on the data rick shared with you. At this hour. Now the last trading month of the year well tell you how to play the rally getting closer to 2020. Another big day of shopping after a record setting black friday. President trump hitting brazil and argentina with tariffs this morning straight to the markets, joining us is laura calvasino and strategist paul paulson. Good morning to you both laurie, i guess we can kind of explain how we got here on this premise to get an upturn in the economic data. We saw a industrial slowdown globally and decent numbers yoer night in china this ism number not taken too well on the first look by the u. S. Markets does it change anything in terms of the premise of the rally and expect into year end we have looked at the last month or two and said it seems odd to us and think stocks are higher over the next year, not headed into a recession and look at markets acting like its a massive sharp reacceleration and not the view thats not what we heard in the last reporting season. I actually think ism number today dovetails well with the tone we just got. Jim, how about you . I know you are looking perhaps for cyclical stocks to build on the gains they have seen recently and perhaps the markets are correct figuring out easy Monetary Policy and same time the economys starting to look better how does the number fit in with all that well, it is a weak number but doesnt change a lot interNational Numbers are better the gdp atlanta number way up for the Third Quarter or for the final quarter. You know, what i im impressed by, mike, unused capacity we have left even though were in the 11th year of an economic recovery and bull market productivity popped. Fairly significantly we have got a rise in the Labor Force Participation rate which is odd in late in the cycle. The job creation up 1. 4 in the last year and the unemployment only fell two tenths because we are having new entrants. We have a surge in household formation because millennials are aging over 30. We have a pristine household Balance Sheet with untapped positive savings sitting there and a low debt to equity ratios. We have got a Manufacturing Sector which we can revive from a recession again. And we have got a wall of worrywarts and wonder if we can convert. Thats excess capacity for further economic recovery and highs in the market. It is not a Straight Line but i think youll want to buy on the dips here if we get some weakness. Laurie, you just said markets acting like theres a sharp reacceleration. I would like to buy on a dip. We are not bearish by any stretch but this list of good stuff going on underneath the surface seems very priced in if you look at the cftc data we have just hit a new high i mean, well above where we were actually around the tax reform passage in late 2017 valuations are telling similar story so we have hit peaks in positioning and valuation that set markets up for bad news and thats where we are. We need to see a dip before we jump in and buy. I dont know. Jim, you are looking at the numbers coming in. Construction spending down at the same time. You have got new orders down what does this tell you looking for more optimists when we could benefit from a truce in the trade war when it doesnt look like businesses encountering the same optimism well, i think, you know, we have a few bad numbers along the way. The citigroup u. S. Economic surprise index is up in the last few weeks. Its been up in the last few months even more so we have had more better reports than worse but you know, reports are very volatile we wont get them all in a Straight Line and i would say if you look at all reports over the globe over the weekend and today theyve been pretty good the german info is up. The france market is up. We have Good International reports out of europe and china so i dont know if its all that bad. I dont know if the values are bad. 175 street estimates for the s p next year better than that you have 20 multipleon that. Thats 3,500 i think that thats the type of upside we have got and the downside were certainly going to get some, but protected by the fact of good things going on here and how far can it fall before this money on the sidelines could come in and buy on the dip we did get treasury yields up sharply this morning and seemed like this kind of a pop related to the overseas economic numbers, it seems like we are in a zone and treasury yields are not trafficking too much for equity valuations and yet we can see some room higher to 2 on the 10year without it compromising things. You dont expect a recession whats the path to getting to that target in 2020 in terms of sectors, the types of stocks to work we have told people keep a modest bias to value oriented cyclicals and looking at industrials and financials, they trade well when ism is moving up and we think thats going to happen eventually and very, very cheap right now. Industrials close to financial crisis lows, same on financials. You want to be careful in consumer where the resiliency thesis is baked in restaurants look overvalued. But we are also not really ready to give up the defensives entirely and keeping the utilities overweight, valuations look neutral again on our model and keep the value trade intact, keep a cyclicalbias. And empowering longterm Growth Health care and tech to keep neutral views on, moved to market weight on tech. Neutral on health care for a while. We like the valuations frankly better on health care than technology the growth trade may keep working for a next little bit here it is not where we want to be. Remember, we looked back and said growth wasnt what you wanted to own. We think that growth, it is not the right longterm call it is very overvalued at this point in time and if we when we look through the lists of the crowded names on street, it is full of a lot of these software stocks, for example. Some of the communications services, as well. We know three, five years down the road thats not when where we want to be and near term its hard to argue against the momentum i think. All right thanks very much got the s p down two thirds of 1 . Retail in focus on what is dubbed cyber monday. Our Courtney Reagan is live in a Walmart Fulfillment Center and has the latest on an important day for them and retailers, courtney. Reporter really big day, david. We think well seat a lot of records. Im here at a Fulfillment Center this is just one of six campuses working to fulfill the orders. Consumers are placing throughout the day on walmart. Com im here at a packing station and once an order is placed, it can be picked, packed and shipped out in under an hour n. Total National Retail federation expects 69 million americans shopping today some point and we set records on thanksgiving and online on black friday and adobe says gross online sales 19 to 9. 4 billion and make it the biggest day in history in the United States for online sales if that happens but like on black friday, things shifted over time and instead of having the peak Sales Volumes in the morning or once consumers get to work to use the highspeed internet, they can do it on the phones which now means that peak sales volume happens later at night between 7 00 and 11 00 p. M. Pacific time or 10 00 p. M. Here on the east coast 30 of the sales done during that period of time. We are getting some preliminary analysis of what we saw over the weekend online, thanksgiving and black friday according to analysis of 300,000 transactions by edison trends, nordstrom actually saw the biggest encrease in their online sales up 60 followed by walmart at 53 and then amazon at 49 according to this edison trends analysis at least target saw the online sales fall around 12 from last year and jcpenney down 14 for thanksgiving top sellers are frozen toys, surprise paw patrol. Apple airpods, apple laptops and samsung tvs according to adobe back over to you guys. Courtney, thank you Courtney Reagan. Speaking of retail, when we return, well be joined by two startup ceos talking about Digital Strategies in the shortened Holiday Shopping season and well have a lot more on the selloff with the biggest twoday drop in nearly two months nti aad sllhe dot go anywhere. Dow off 100 points and today expected to be the biggest sales day for Small Business merchants but for startups whats the right strategy to maximize growth joining us now ceo of mens apparel retailer ledbury and ceo of bombas and i understand youre not just a sock company anymore. We do tshirts and sweat pants. How important is this cyber monday leading into whats a shortened Holiday Shopping period for you and how do you maximize your exposure to these customers . Totally so we are a very giftible item because socks are not sized, you know, specifically so it is very easy to buy and gift for friends and low cost item so q4 ends up being about 50 to 60 of the annual revenue so this time of year is basically the super bowl. What kind of deals are you offering today we offer 20 off site wide. We have been offering it for three weeks now and part of our strategy was since we saw basically one less week between black friday and christmas we tried to pull demand forward given that we get to talk customers directly online. Give may sense of how much is riding on cyber monday and the Holiday Season for you and what you are doing to lure the customers to the site. Theres a lot just like david, this is a huge selling time for us. Getting a shirt or a tie for christmas. Fors everybodys doing promotions earlier how do we keep people engaged in this period and thats new product drop 30 off online today and we dropped a new product collection at 65 off and hopefully that brings the guy who had 50 of the shirts on friday and coming back to buy again own monday. We talked to the American Apparel federation ceo feeling like theres a race to the bottom offering the promotions to get people in the door, get them on the site youre cutting into the margins with no assurance that they continue to buy from you without the promotions. Sure, yeah. Its why black friday, cyber monday is the only sale all year around and keep it to 20 . Some peers at 40 , 50 , 60 off. Look at the gap, they run 50 basically all month long and we totally agree, it is a race to the bottom we are lucky to be somewhat new. On been in business six years, incredibly fast growth and we feel like we have created the product for our category so we think that theres a lot of specific demand for bombas perhaply and a way to give back to the customers, the ability for them to start to think about, okay, if im going to buy an incremental gift the extra 20 is a push and doesnt signal to our customers that, man, the brand needs to push through inventory so theyre really significantly discounting and a balance of brand and fairness and table stakes in the marketplace. Go ahead. Paul, part of the conversation we have here constantly is in a sense very big retailers figured things out and commanded attention and wallet share in the last year or more ta target, amazon have you noticed something in difference of Customer Engagement or is that a false kind of story line that we have been following no. I think its true. Omnichannel is not an easy thing to do and taken time to catch up we started as an ecommerce business we want to serve customers online they know how to find us and transact on the site so that will close in and at the end of the day what product are you offering people . You need to offer new, something refreshing to keep them coming back. What about marketing . What have you found . Been in business tn years. Whats the most significant way to sustain and grow the business in terms of reaching new people, not necessarily existing customers . Yeah, of course word of smout a huge component and our goal to make sure shirts that fit better, last better than anything in the closet an all about trial. How do you get that person in that new shirt its their wife or themselves buying for their father, how do you market to that person . Get them in, if it takes a discount that is okay to bring them back and show them a new shirt every week and a reason to come back. What about brick and mortar do you want to get people in the store, as well yeah. How many stores do you have three one, transactionally, ecommerce is a best. Relationally, trying on the product shlgts feel the fabrics, they love that in house and in store and then experiences big part of the business is made to measure sit for an hour with a specialist, go through 700 fabrics, italian suit. Thats an experience and fun shopping and a rare experience when a guy said i loved that experience. Recent trend with direct to consumer sites, my exposure to bombas is instagram and facebook but now we are seeing brands getting into brick and mortar to offer an expert shl. Can you do that with socks we think it is more challenging with the socks only and the road map for expansion is tshirts, sweats and others to come down the line and fortunate over the last six years we have experienced triple digit year growth year over year online and for us we are doubling down on the thing we know how to do really well and for socks it is a better category served online we have less than a 2 return rate mostly because the product is so good. Universal. Sizing is easy. Its easy to get back. David, paul, so great to have you here thank you. Thank you. Thanks so much for having us. The president makes comments. Favorite venue typically outside a roaring helicopter lets listen in. Secretary said that we were responsible. Responsible for getting over 130 million extra from other countries. That we protect and they werent paying they were delinquent ive been talking about that talking about a lot of things. We are leading the world now in the economy. We have been almost since i became president but we are substantially ahead of everybody else. Nobodys even close. You know that very well. And i look forward to having another very, very productive day for our country. Well be working hard. Do you have a question yes, sir [ inaudible well, doesnt make it better but well see what happens mr. President any worries the democrats, the radical left democrats, do nothing democrats, decided when im going to nato, it is set up a year ago, when im going to nato, that was the exact time. This is one of the most important journeys that we make as president and for them to be doing this and saying this and putting an impeachment on the table which is a hoax to start off with, if you noticed there was breaking news today, the ukrainian president came out and said very strongly that President Trump did absolutely nothing wrong that should be case over but he just came out a little while and he said President Trump said absolutely nothing wrong and that should end everything but it will never end because they want to do what they want to do. Theyre getting killed in their own districts. I think it is a tremendous boon for the republicans. Republicans have never, ever been so committed as they are right now and so united. So its really a great thing in some ways but in other ways its a disgrace it is a disgrace for our country. Do you want how i love going to afghanistan it was great meeting with as you know, we had some very good meetings with a lot of people including ghani and he was terrific and great meeting with him. My trip to afghanistan was very successful now we are going to london and it will be nato and were meeting with a lot of countries and theyre going to have to do little more burden sharing. Any reaction [ inaudible say it . Is the china trade deal still popular this year . The chinese are always negotiating. Frankly, i should be other places that i could do all by myself and the chinese want to make a deal. Well see what happens. What are you well, brazil has really discounted if you look at what happened with their currency, they have devalued their currency very substantially, by 10 . Argentina, also. And i gave them a big break on tariffs. But now im taking that break off. Because its very unfair to our manufacturers and very unfair to our farmers. Our Steel Companies will be very happy. And our farmers will be very happy. Chairman what of your lawyers, to represent your point of view before the house of because the whole thing is a hoax Everybody Knows it all you have to do is look at the words of the ukrainian president he just issued and you know its a hoax its an absolute disgrace what theyre doing to our country thank you. Thank you very much. All right that was President Trump on his way to london as you heard with the helicopter in the background some of it hard to make out. Eamon, i did get most of it coming to trade. Fill us in on what was most important. Reporter i think a significant thing there is the president acknowledging the reality of the politics surrounding that hong kong bill that he signed last week i asked the president there if signing that hong kong bill last week makes it more difficult to get to a china trade deal. The president said it doesnt make it any better but well see what happens and the president acknowledging theres some political difficulty the chinese are up stset and stopped short of retaliating to the action and signing the bill but the president acknowledging it doesnt make it easier to get to a trade deal. The president suggesting that the chinese do want to get to a deal ultimately and not c signifying where or when he expects it to wind up so a couple of different treads out there still hanging for us to look at as we try to figure out where this is going, david. All right so lets bring in Kayla Tausche for more heres the president talking about trade, heading to nay. To give me a sense of what you are seeing there on capitol hill. Reporter well, contessa, of course, the backdrop of this week is that it was one of the potential venues for signing that phase one deal, if not two weeks ago then possibly in a european country before or after this nato summit thats obviously not happening the president here is talking again in generalized cryptic terms of what is going on saying i could do even more than whats happening and you know what that means. He was asked specifically whether there will be a deal this year and he said the chinese are always negotiating theyve been negotiating for years at this point but what the markets want to know is how close a deal is. Politicos reporting a deal is millimeters away according to a Senior Administration official and a few weeks ago another official said that the deal was down to the short strokes and big issues to resolve and the president there is acknowledging that they havent resolved some of the issues and the situation could be tougher and restatalian against brazil and argentina the president pledged to help the farmers a couple of months ago. Clearly that is not happening either kayla, how much political appetite is there from the democrats to cooperate own getting the deals done, on passing them through congress and seeing it through when democrats are holding pi impeachment hearings of the president . It would be done at the executive level and made noise in the last year about whether thats the appropriate way to do that but it would likely not involve any lawmakers if the president were to reach a deal with china. On u. S. M. C. A. There had been a suggestion by both white house officials and senior aides on capitol hill that Speaker Nancy Pelosi was holding potential u. S u. S u. S. M. C. A. To barter impeachment votes that would not vote for impeachment or find it incredibly difficult to vote for impeachment. The president tweeted last week that pelosi signaled to delay it for six months we havent heard exactly why that would be or whether that is, in fact, the case. But certainly, that had been something that we expected to see in short order here in the capitol. Thank you eamon, thanks to you, as well. Joining us now is the New York Times columnist and cnbc contributor, man, theres a long, long introduction for you. Getting longer. Hope the book is doing well. It is, thank you. Lets talk markets a bit. We sort of entered this last month. Whats been a very strong year and we are getting the valuations some say, jim you watch this closely that are getting a bit high. It really has been a phenomenal year and i was thinking back just this weekend because i was sitting around on Christmas Eve last year and remembering it was hard to really be upbeat in the holiday spirit because that was like the worst Christmas Eve i think ever it was terrible. This is a phenomenal year and worth keeping it in perspective. Last year was a bad year and there was that steep plunge beginning in the fall of 2018 and kind of bottomed out towards the end of the year christmas and heading into the new year and set the stage for a tremendous rally and thats that the uncertainty, the fears of the trade war which really crystallized in late 2018 has not been as bad and people feared this huge u. S. Economy has been humming along pretty well. And i think thats been reflected in the markets i think most people feel nevertheless the trade wars, the uncertainty of that surpassed Overall Economic activity and that if the trade wars went away we would see a really significant rally even from these relative high levels and flows through to higher consumer con semp consumption. Theyll say its three rate cuts from the fed and the fed again really speaking in very dovish terms even about higher inflation targets and almost as if, well, this bull market to find a way to persist into 2020. I guess now the question is, are we going to have some kind of a return to a public xub raexubere phase . Well, based on my years of watching the market people like this kind of boring clicking forward kind of thing. They dont like it with huge bursts and the euphoria starts to take over i think thats a fairly healthy sign and no question the fed played the role. Trump bashes them. He ought to be sending them a nice poinsettia this year because they have delivered the cuts but some point it all in the end comes down to earnings and you can cut, cut, cut. Makes fixed income not an attractive alternative but you want the affects of that, u. S. Greater demand, greater Economic Activity and profits flowing through the bottom line and the talk of the trade wars, i think it is worth bearing in mind why do we have a trade war there were two goals one to help domestic u. S. Industrials having trouble from steel and secondly it was to make the chinese play fair and, you know, intellectual property and other things same thing with europeans and the steel. Well, have we gotten anything on either within of those sides the war is still going on but i think at some point and trump must realize this, you have got to deliver some results here the Steel Industry doesnt seem to be doing very well. Steel prices come down dramatically. I know. It is like he announces new steel tariffs saying brazil and argentina hurting us, certainly the soybean farmer that is lost out with the trade war that was sparked by trump with china. Because brazil and argentina started to pick up soybean crops, plowing under more land to send soybeans to china in high demand. That hurt the farmers. I know, exactly talking about did it help steel . Who did it hurt . Farm belt. Handing out bigger subsidies. Im out there on the ground and again and again asking people who voted on for trump on the verge of losing the farms, have been in the family for generations, does it change the Political Support and it doesnt. I know. Im from the midwest, from the farm belt. I was out there this summer in iowa a few years ago looking at the reaction and not happy about the tariffs saying we want to see results. China needs to be taken to the woodshed im hearing the same thing it helped that theyre handing out subsidies although they say they dont want it but taking them you know, how long will they, you know, go along with this i dont know it is definitely hurting them. Somebodys hurt the American Consumer i had to buy new cook ware cook ware is made out of stainless steel. The prices is incredible a little spot 100. Did you not buy it . No. I bought it. I had this new range that only works with strength of the American Consumer. Certain kinds of pans. Were collecting over 7 billion a month right now in tariffs. I hope that helps we are paying it. We are. Jim, thank you. Sure. All right. Lets send it over to sue herrera for a news update at this hour. Good morning. Good morning, everyone. Heres whats happening at this hour the pool of democratic president ial hopefuls is shrinking. Montana governor bullock announcing today that hes ending his campaign. Bullock, a twoterm governor and former attorney general making the decision based on how low he was in the polls the house is expected to unveil its impeachment report on President Trump today behind closed doors its a compilation of weeks of testimony on the President Trump actions towards the ukraine. Lawmakers will vote tomorrow on whether to send that rort to the Judiciary Committee for wednesdays landmark hearing. Two astronauts on board the International Space station are on their third space walk in almost three weeks theyre fixing a 2 billion cosmic ray detector that device is being used to search for antimatter and dark matter and back on earth, the northeast is bracing for a noreaster snow and a wintry mix of rain and sleet is already bearing down from pennsylvania to maine. Flight aware is reporting 280 cancelations so far at u. S. Airports more than 1,200 delays bring your patience if you have to go to the airport thats the news update this hour back downtown to you, mike. All right, sue. Thank you very much. It is time for the etf spotlight looking at the financial spdr ticker xlf currently i believe to the upside a little bit. Down about a quarter of a percent and treasury yields higher helping the core bank stocks this sector up 25 year to date entering the last trading month of 2019. As for how those big banks are moving this morning, see bank of america up half a percent on the rise, of course, very sensitive to the change in yields. Wells fargo did get a downgrade this morning from market perform to underperform firm saying in 2020 expects wells fargos revenue to shrink and now down. We were talking about jpm this morning and quite a move there. Tremendous move. Market cap well above 400 billion, up 35 here. Built on the huge premium to the rest of the group and second Largest Holding in the s p value etf to apple apple and jp morgan driving the value trade. That theyve been in very long time. Exactly. I dont know where jpm is. Rest of the group like ten, 11. Disapointing manufacturing numbers sent the dow lower today. Almost down 200 points more than half of a point. The s p off. 8 and the nasdaq composite is down now more than 1. 3 more squawk on the street when rurn. All right. December shaping up to be a big month for boeing. The companys looking to certify the max before the end of the year phil la bebeau has more on the developing story every day phil look. They have a number of hurdles to clear before this airplane can be certified by the faa and ultimately back in commercial service. Human factor testing begins today, essentially where they have pilots in the simulator the 737 maxim lay or the and throw off the alarms, the warnings, theyll see how they react to that they have a certification flight thats going to likely happen sometime middle of december and set the Pilot Training rules and then the question of how quickly once certification happens each of the airplanes built parked on tarmacs how quickly will they be certified . Remember last the faa said we are going to be putting authorization stickers on each of these individually. Well be checking them which then brings up the question, will the u. S. Carriers putting off the max until early march Begin Service by then . We are not to where they have to push it back but people will be watching whether or not the certification can happen as quickly as bioing is expecting but finally this week shares in addition to Human Factors testing they will have influencers, Aviation Industry influencers, for back Group Briefings part of boeing trying to change the public narrative about the max, whether or not this fix with the software, with mcast to take hold and if thats happening today and over the next couple of days with those influencers. All right phil, thank you for that appreciate that. Boeing down almost a percent. Going to break, take a look at shares of roku getting crushed after receiving a downgrade from morgan stanley. The firm lowered the rating to underweight expecting both revenue and gross Profit Growth to slow meaningfully in 2020 the stock, however, is still up nearly 400 in 2019. Resqwkn e re en we return. Trends driving specific sectors of outperformance. 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[woman] snhu was the best experience of my life. [man] without snhu, i wouldnt be the leader i am today. [woman] i graduated high school 19 years ago. I still finished. [man] in the military, you feel that sense of accomplishment. Thats what snhu is. You will march from this arena and say to the world. I did it. [woman] you did it. I love you. [graduate] i love you too. Welcome back to squawk on the street. Rick santelli live here on the floor of the cme group like to welcome brian weinstein. Brian, lets get right into it 48. 1 on the november manufacturing ism. Definitely a set back. Fourth negative number in a row. Only 5 of 18 industries reporting growth finally, this probably doesnt include the end of the gm strike, is negative as some of the positives were of other isms not nearly as bad as what we saw in the u. S. This morning. No question, rick it was disappointing i think you have the trade resolution hanging over the market, just too much uncertainty for manufacturers to feel great we expect isms to move higher and above 50 marginally over the coming walks and a lot weighing on the Manufacturing Sector and keeping growth subdued. You know, last week we spent most of our time in the long end of the market with rates firm but certainly not keeping up with the risk on mentality of the markets. This morning we popped and weve set back after the numbers but we are firm again s. The complex of Interest Rates around the globe starting to wake up to some of the paths being taken by the Global Equity markets . We think a little bit we are surprised rates arent higher this year is a big rally as long as you own something with the exception of maybe energy you have done well so i think people are still chasing duration and to us Interest Rates look low versus Central Banks and risk assets in the last two to three months. You know, with Christine Lagarde in europe in this notion that fiscal will replace monetary, is this a market hope . I have seen no evidence that germany is going to change its mind, although as the biggest economy in the eurozone, it definitely seems to have a manufacturing issue as all global carmakers do. Its hard to say. I think what central bankers telling you is they cant do it all themselves they need help fiscal is the next major thing you saw Election Results and maybe a move to fiscal stimulus but i agree with you theres no evidence to suggest large fiscal stimulus coming on a global basis. Finally, so many things changed after the last ease on october 30th many comps back to the end of october. Do you see Central Banks in this pause that seems to be led by the u. S. Continuing in to 2020 or does it all depend on the path of Global Equities . Final thought. We think Central Banks did enough and want to stay on hold and obviously theyre reactive if they need to be not out of bullets so we think the fed will like to stay on hold but obviously its path dependent we need to see growth for them to be comfortable. Thanks for your thoughts today, brian mike santoli, back to you. Thank you very much. When we come back, thrifty and gifting. Ceo of poshmark is with us squawk on the street is back after this at fidelity, online u. S. Stocks and etfs are commissionfree. And when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. Thats why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. Talk, talk the amount of Student Loan Debt i have, im embarrassed to even say. We just decided we didnt want debt any longer. I didnt realize how easy investing could be. Im Picking Companies that i believe in. I think sofi money is amazing. Thank you sofi. Sofi thank you, we love you. Welcome back to squawk on the street. Kate rogers. A weak start to december for u. S. Kwekts after major averages posted the best month since june energy is the lone sector and tech stocks the worst performing group. Theyre on pace for the worst day since early october in part due to weakness in Service Names service now, adobe and autodesk. Ill send it back downtown to you guys lets look at the broader market, hitting new lows for the session. Dow down 210 points, s p down ninetenths of one percent, all came after that disappointing ism manufacturing number the national ism has been unusually weak relative to other gauges that people look at, whether it is market pmis. Whatever it is, the market is getting back that rush to new high the s p 500 is back to levels we saw a week ago friday. Obviously tactically, the market was probably stretched coming into the week before we got disappointing news a year ago, a very different tone it was certainly when the month ended with significant losses across the board. This time last year at the beginning of december, people were kind of in the bunker, thinking the worst was over. Had a big selloff for two months and it fell apart. Almost the reverse of a performance chasing move people were liquidating to lock in what they could as a lot of stocks fell apart toward the end, and also people think it had influence on the weak retail spending in december, did have that psychological effect of that weakness. The only positive sector on the s p today is energy. Looks like wti is up now and brent is as well, up to 5597 for wti. Marathon oil having a good day this is on the back of what has been a tough time for oil stocks generally. Obviously a depressed sector. Also news coming into the session, saudi arabia is pushing to extend production cuts through the opec, plus russia partners into next year and beyond thats psychologically the market on its heels, Energy Market getting a little bit of a pop. Where are we on the multiple coming into today . Overall s p under 18 on a forward basis. If the forecasts come through, and really, youre at the highs for the bull market except for one period when the tax cuts were priced in and in fact, the and list estimates didnt incorporate tax cuts on an apples to apples basis, youre more or less the most expensive we have been lot of folks say thats true most bull markets get to 20 times earnings, most stretch the valuation piece of it, when you have bond yields this low and the rest of it whether it is a forced move or not, that tends to be what happens. Interesting day we mentioned it many times, heard Courtney Reagan from the Walmart Fulfillment Center it is cyber monday, a day you think about amazon which trailed the markets overall performance, the s p 500, and down almost 2 today the company spending, given what we heard from last quarter gave investors pause. We know amazon tends to go through the investment spends that are quite significant but it is interesting to see that underperformance. I dont know how many shareholders will be upset with 18 stock, it is well below performance and what we consider of peers, not to mention nasdaq comp. Something like 13 off the record high. This stock, stopped 2,000 a share at its peak. It was over a trillion dollar mashl market cap gave modest guidance for the holiday quarter. Quick take away was amazon is conservative about these things. But the stock is not traded that well, because of regulatory overhang or investment cycle you talk about. Interesting on closing bell how many guests have chosen amazon as a last chance trade the last couple of weeks simply because they have the pull back now, it is an opportunity they say to get in. Yeah. Speaking of Large Technology stocks, when we come back here, apples surprise event on apps and games kicking off later today. Well tell you what to expect when we come back. Dont go anywhere. So what are you working on . Im searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like im just wasting time. Wasted time is wasted opportunity. Exactly. Thats why Td Ameritrade designed a firstofitskind, personalized education center. See, you just oh, this is easy. Yeah, and thats oh, just what i need. Courses on options trading, webcasts, tutorials. Yeah. Their awardwinning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. And it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. So its like my streaming service. Well exactly. Well except now, youre binge learning. Oh, i like that. Thank you, i just came up with that. Youre funny. Learn fast with the Td Ameritrade education center. Call 8662967451 or visit tdameritrade. Com learn. Get started today, and for a limited time, get up to 800 when you open and fund an account. Thats 8662967451, or tdameritrade. Com learn. But with opportunity comes risk. And to manage this risk, the world turns to cme group. We help farmers lock in future prices, banks manage Interest Rate changes and airlines hedge fuel costs. All so they can manage their risks and move forward. Its simply a matter of following the signs. They all lead here. Cme group how the world advances. Good morning it is 8 00 a. M. At twitter headquarters in san francisco, 11 00 a. M. On wall street. Squawk alley is live good monday morning. I am Morgan Brennan with mike santoli, carl is off, jon on assignment this morning. The first trading day of the month off to a rough start, tech le