Want to cozy up with for the long winter. But a major milestone for the dow, closing above 28,000 for the first time new records for the s p and nasdaq united technologist, alphabet, microsoft all hitting record levels is the market headed higher and higher thats a miserable song, isnt it. You know there was a time and place for it but its not this is not the time and place to talk about it. Nor the place. Kudos on the devg but me that thought the market is grinding higher so many headwinds and things to be concerned about and we rattle them off the market doesnt care. The vix closes at 12, in my estimation way low in the environment but the s p grinds higher on a day where the only real news is the president part of his administration talks about getting closer to a trail trade deal with china i thought we had phase one signed a couple weeks ago. Earnings god but i do think this market is not nearly looking at all the negatives closely enough and at a certain point they matter. I dont know what the exoxygennous event did. A lot of people felt the way guy did. And thats why we march high are was because positioning was negative now you have two months left to gain where you want to be in the market thats why its going higher in my opinion. And s p, by the way, up 25 this year. This was this is one of the quietest great years of all time and if you think about it also, you know were coming out of the period of the negative rate spiral the normalization process to me also i think is a big part of some of the health of the market i know jeff has views has views and technically and tactically ill the let him talk about. Steve is talking about the position attention of pain sorry about the song, guy. I think we started normalize it a bit. But the things you should be comfortable about as an investor is decent guidance weve had a dynamic where the dollar has settled into a range. There is a lot of folks calling for slightly weaker dollar i see not only rates normalizing and thats not a bad thing. Good for equities but i see basing in industrial commodities. Global markets with a glide path into next year even if a little zanny right here and google and apple and microsoft. Make up 30 of the triple qs think about those charts all three of the charts may be overbought but if you are lacking for what takes the market higher, these three names are cruising and i think thats good news were longterm investors we dont see a recession next year. When thats the case were fully invested most of the time. The economy looks okay and the yield curve resteepened. Employment good. For all those reasons the market rises the next six months. And some of the major headwinds, trade, global growth, looking better for better or worse probably worse over longterm you have the liquidity m2 money supply is growing double the pace of gdp money needs to find a home but to tims point tactically if you want to look for a pause or pullback you could get one the s p is technically overat bought ugt you have a quarter of the Index Trading above the 65day moving average. Some of the indicators ive been pounding the table on over the past months. Slo slowly moving the other way. I think the leadership has been interesting this month the market grinned higher but led by tech abreal estate, and utilities. Energy, financials and Consumer Discretionary were the laggards. Maybe under the surface there is need for a pause or pullback. But if you think about it you can unwind on rsi thats overbought in the s p doesnt mean you have to sell it off you have to unwind it naturally. I think the biggest out of all the conditions is the fed. The back dr. Platz of the fed is off the table now. He is a dove and will remain positive on the markets. I also think the back drop of everybody calling for recession and it was just a countdown when do we get it we have 12 to 18 months before this were not getting a reis session in the near term but we got data this woke and today from the new york fed and atlanta fed, a bit more hawkish in terms of Fourth Quarter 0. 2, standpoint 4. But if you look at prospect 2020, the job market where it is its difficult to see where we technically at least i dont know if im willing to make that bet that were not getting a recession. Im willing to bet that this. Well get a recession. We were calling for it in the sure. People were calling for it. Had their eye on it. Looking at global data and saying we are getting just a matter of when. When the fed says its not so much that he is not cutting rates anymore. Its that the barometer or the benchmark for him to raise rates is incredibly high. Very high. That pushes everyone in the most risky of assets and thats the market. Its interesting, gdp started the year north of 3 , probably coming in half of. So things are moving in my opinion the wrng way but steve and jeff is right. You have this money supply, sayway you want, i mean this is qe by the fed. Neck say its not. It clearly is. I mean they they defied it up there. Balance sheet will continue to grow. I mean they stopped raising rates obviously. I mean, this is quantitative easing and the overnight repoe think we dont talk about is a big deal at a certain point who am i to argue with this . The one thing interesting thing is walmart, i think valuation finally mattered with walmart in the quarter it wasnt disastrous but people woke up and said wait a second walmart shouldnt be trading at 24 times next years numbers. At the same time theyll probably say the same thing about microsoft. Valuation will matter. On walmart specifically they havent grown ebidta when you start to grow that digital or ecommerce, it actually costs them more than someone driving up to the store. The product mix has not been official. Product mix is not beneficial its grocery razor thin margin. You saw that in the retail sales. On the headline the retail sales is okay. But stripping out autos and gasoline it was weaker number. Walmart, target, big box, they had their place i think in a market where we questioned recession and it was a safer play you know, the fact that they printed its yesterdays news but printed 3. 2 on same store sales which for walmart is good. Lets talk for positioning for a second and getting back to economic fundamentals. I think there is evidence gnat Global Manufacturing cycle is bottoming. You see more evidence of p michlt is here and globally turning up in the First Quarter of 2020. What do you want to do in that environment . Thats when you see the durable rotation in cyclicals. And if you see them do better you you are seeing International Stocks do better lock at the msci tilted for cyclical toward the s p. If you like value and cyclicals Pay Attention to international because our clients when i speak to them theyre yun invested in internationals because they just havent wondering recently. Contrast what jeff is saying, guy, your view of the market is do youer. 100 but wrong as well. So invest in the market or trade the market you have right now. 100 . And not industrials. I dont think its necessarily industrials. Health care i think is starting to pick up steam again weve talked about that. You see what happened with the hospitals names like unh on the back of the comments from the president. But this started prior to that as well pl Health Care Still energy seems to have found a bottom in the shortterm industrials sort of scare me i understand what jeff is saying maybe things have bottomed and thats the best time to get a lot of these names but i dont think im not ready to call a bottom yet in a lot of the industrial names. Im going with the cyclical play because i do have exposure elsewhere to tech. But im going as the soukle basis has not panned out so far. But west rock is one of my names olin corp. One of my names i hope is lasts longer than two or three days of the uncle ip. But i worry about the cyclical trade from now through the end of the year. As crazy it seems i think we are digesting tighter financial conditions a bit. There are trough valuations in the cyclical. I agree but you can see pmi prin lower when they push lower then you see cyclical not do well. Priced in. Yeah. You like value but i would wait until q 19 because thats when you see the durable bottom i think that lasts a while a bit late to the game for our clients isnt the worst thing in the world. I think having a bar bell approach owning something here and something here and short something in the middle but thats trader speak for i think owning semi conductors and ultracyclical stuff not only works but continues to work. I look at fedex that a trough multiple, been struggling. And the chart guys i think should be telling you you built base this is starting to challenge to the upside thats the stock that moves to next year especially if we have seen this bottom on pmis i dont think anyone here is saying bottom on pmis is off to the races. It means stabilizing that degree of change is that much more impressive when things go from awful to just bad. Thats when you get the biggest moves. Coming up its cold, windy our traders have decided that they are staying in tonight. But not all of them are netflixing and chill netflix and chilling. Yeah, i was going to say. What toes that mean. Im not up on that lingo. But they will are tell us the names they are cozying up for the ultimate night in. Find out which name grabbed guys attention during the vecord week on wall street li from new york city times square much more fast money right after this guess who just got reinstated well, not officially. Nervous . Yeah. Yeah me too. Dont worry about it, well figure it out. Ill see ya in there just ok is not ok. At t has americas best network, now with our best plans, at our best prices, starting at 35 a line for 4 lines. New from at t. By the way, shes the it wasnext mozart. G day. As usual we were behind schedule. But sophies enthusiasm cannot be dampened. Not even by a runaway donut. We powered through it in our toyota prius. Because a stars got to shine, no matter what. Its unbelievable what you can do in the prius. Toyota lets go places. Well back to fast money lets get to our call of the day. Barkley getting appetite back for grub you hub raising the price target 89 telling the jint its time to buckle down and prevent further erosion of the stock grub hub down 48 for the year even though rallying on the call this was the Management Team that said the problem or one problem was promiscuous diners. I dont know what that means. Ill talk about maybe diners not committed. How about that. Yes they will use any service which willy nily. I think the stickiness is ultimately the question. The Competitive Landscape is the question and the values is where this was difficult. People priced them on growth they saddled up to major brands in terms of partners but the argument here by barclay, is it overdone . Id give it more time. The Competitive Landscape is getting worse. Slowing growth, shrinking marginen a high multiple stock yes it could last longer and grub hub wasnt made for this it was a platform that began to deliver for me, i would say away from this ketly i think the whole group is a sell grub hub in particular is the biggest sell. I read the Research Note looked like it was 50 and above in machlt and a situation. Theyre waiting for somebody to buy the company. Thats not something we want to wait for management has not proven themselves it went from 60 to 32 in a Straight Line what did you say before am i allowed to say that. On the. Promiscuous diner whats wrong with that. I dont know what it means. I dont know what theyre doing in the dining rooms. I want the craziest thing. 60 to tp, the 50 retracement of the move is 46 you can get the 6 move on the back of what we have seen. Big Short Interest they can get squeezed in this for sure. The grub hub call got us thinking great time to be a couch pot on it look at the different options for the ultimate night in. So after tonights show our traders will head home kickoff the shoes cozy up to the favorite stay at home stocks so, tim, how are you spending this chilly november. Ill tell you its chilly, the first thing im going to do, mel crack a bottle i hope i didnt crack it on the desk. 531, time to take out a bourbon. And kickback think about what i want to do for the weekend we talked about promiscuous indining i think the weekend stay at home is match. I know it sounds naughty better not be promiscuous dining at my house. My view is this. We have seen the secular move to Online DatingServices Match went threw the roof and caught some sense of things had turned around but that Third Quarter number, 451 million in revenues, the sense sf new projects a couple of properties with record dloeds. You might want to look hinge and okay coupe i had with massive growth in india. A company is global. And the growth is there. If you want to stay home and swipe right. This is the research. Feels like he is living it. Good job. Whats the hinge . Whats the hinge. Its a dating service hinge, the hinge. Hinge. Just hinge, no the wsh like eagles not the eagle. 2 million downloads. I know what im doing. This is a teddy bear. They are all over my its my teddy bear they are all over my house i have three kids all girls. All 6 and younger. If anyone should be drinking tim with all due respect it should be me. Ill pass this over to you. The next best option is to have them sitting in front of the tv happy, not talking. Im going with disney. We have the disney plus release. 10 million subscribers i think the outlook was for Something Like 8 million threw the end of the year. Those are with big numbers i think there is more growth there. Both domestically. Internationally. But the stock went vertical after the big subs number. I wouldnt necessarily buy it here you have a big gap at about 135. I would like to 135 to 130 to buy but i like the story longterm. Grasso, what are you doing tonight. Snuggle up. Whoa. I have a few kids of my own im doing some gaming. Im winding play x box, play station. You know what processer are in those . Amd. Come on. Amd and all in the processing units are growing. This is overbought up 108 . But its still going higher. Looks like a cozy blanket. Thats a nice blanc et. I would have had you in leprd, steve. I got something cozier. Cozier than the blank zbleet 100 the Mister Rogers movie coming out. You familiar with Mister Rogers. He takes his shoes off. He put the slippers on, the Mister Rogers. When i was a kid i watched that. Tom hanks portrayal is oscarworthy. But people dont know that he likes the chipotle mexican grill. Cmg and it sold off in a meaningful way after earnings in october. Its sold off enough to dip the toe. I had to. Is your foot a size 6, womens. Womens not sorry, man im sorry. Youre not sorry. Keep going. No, its fine my feet are what they are. Theyre dainty. Theyre dancer feet good for you. Love them all right. Still want to know your pick. Cmg, the Mister Rogers pick. Nice work. Any thoughts on each others trades well tell you i think steve outside of his blanket i like what he is doing on the gaming i active activision if you think of the stock stabilized, multiple earnings 21 times you have the dynamic in the pipeline that you have some tailwinds after difficult comps. Its a name im long big into gaming and thats all the kids are doing. How about cmg i dont know about cmg. I think you have a little bit of a reversion back on this one its i dont know, burt burrito. Guy needs to be at home having them. The multiple prepare stations and not all the franchise have them so you wait in line i dont know, i think its run its course due for pullback. Do you have circulation in in your feet. No. He hacked off all his toes. Now i got to show them again. Its the craziest thing they make me do. Those are your slippers you brought them in. You didnt have to tell people that. Thats not right. Coming up on fast money. Here is what else we have cooking. Restoration hardware getting a boost as Warren Buffett makes a bet on the home goods retailer well break down what the company is doing right and how the markets are betting on target ahead of the Earnings Report next we can well bring that you and more when we come back. Sundown vitamins are all nongmo, made with naturally sourced colors and flavors and are gluten dairy free. Theyre all clean. All the time. Even if sometimes were not. Sundown vitamins. All clean. All the time. When i lost my sight, my biggest fear was losing my independence. Mmm. Good. So ive spent my life developing technology to help the visually impaired. We are so good. We built a guide that uses ibm watson. To help the blind. It is already working in cities like tokyo. My dream is to help millions more people like me. Not much, how about you . Are you answering my text in person . I am. Yeah. Lol. Come on in. This is tech that helps you be there. The nissan altima. Now offering the most techadvanced engine in its class. A big interview coming up on monday Julia Boorstin has of an an exclusive with snap Ceo Evan Spiegel well bring that to you. Time for the chart of the week guy. You have to look at this Restoration Hardware an 85 stock in june and having difficulties one of the reasons people thought the tariffs with adversely affectpeople thp but now more than doubled. Warren buffett taking a stake. Coming off a great quarter 12 Revenue Growth and you say there is no way it can be valued now given the run. Its only trading at 16 times next years numbers. Relatively inexpensive where its traded before although it has a huge run and mr. Buffett is in. It can go higher this was at one point a turn around story and Management Change story and also them getting really the Restoration ClubHardware Club onboard you become tied in the ecosystem and it works i can tell tu works. This has been part of the Home Improvement trade. Rather than playing Home Builders i would be in home depot, Restoration Hardware, Sherwin Williams backup these are ways to play i think a consumer who has a job, a consumer who is investing no their home and i think this is play as guy talked about, the multiple here is not aggressive and a name you could stay long. Furniture was a weak spot in retail sales today if you were to play the consumer and the home trend, what would it be. I dont know that i would look at one retail sales report and make a judgment Going Forward here but, you know, its a reasonable point. I think you are talking about a stock 30s above the 2007day moving average maybe a pullback if you get above 192 there is space to 200. Children i i like it and the valuation is good and i would ride it. This is definitely a stock close to overbought but when its been overbought recently its unwound without coming in hard hon the name. Its a great year to date performance. I think youre okay still owning the stock at these levels. Buffett bought rg thing small positions but interesting stocks. Makes you words if its him. Or his. Oh. Who might take over. Slb take over for all of us at some point isnt that true. And ininherit a nice pair of slip zblers thats true because they are so small. You know, thats ha ha, mel. Final trade time tim. Guy i love the slippers no matter what anybody says i love fed iks we talked about the cyclety. Talking a Management Team maligned but i think fred smith is one of the best in business fedex. Jeff mills. We would be a tactical seller of apple we like it longterm but we did trim a little bit today. We think its gone too far too fast talk bag a stock 25 above the long term moving average i would like for a pullback. Steve grasso. I have a threeday rule and didnt adhere to it. In shake shack its a 6day rule. I think youre okay buying shake shack here. You could have used that rule on the blanket. I got a leprd and zebra. Big oa coming up with cb dubs we have kilomy Business School a quick hello. Blackstone, trading up against 52 again this sucker wants to go higher. Oa is up next make fitness routine with pure protein. High protein. Low sugar. Tastes great high protein. Low sugar. So good high protein. Low sugar. Mmmm, birthday cake pure protein. The best combination for every fitness routine. It nice . Ce. This is the mostawarded minivan three years in a row. The van just talked. Sales guy, give em the employee price, then gimme your foot. Handsfree sliding doors, stow n go seats, man, yall getting a hook up and yall dont even work here. 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If you could have carter worth is raising a glass to what he says remains the single best opportunity in the market right now then our range to target, one pink only. Captain dan nathan has ha combat plan if this retailer takes a dive around earnings plus. I thought you might put a volatile psycho path o