Meeting with, and of course better known as the new nafta. And the s and p and the nasdaq hitting new highs. Lets bring in our investment committee. Joe, stephanie and john, marg reet reed, union bank private bank, and rob of ubs private wealth management. So stocks, joe, pushing to new highs. Youve got the president who is probably going to tout a strong economy, high gdp, low unemployment is he going to give the market another leg up i think you and i used the phrase coiled spring here we are, we are springing higher, with very good reason. I think when youre looking at the steepening of the yield curve, the uninversion, if i could create a word, the uninversion of the yield curve, theres been a significant rebound in yields. And then earnings, and steph talks about earnings all the time eps gross was expected to be negative, 3 to 4 we came in down only 1 . So i think there is a lot to present a very fertile environment for the capital markets. Every asset class is higher. Where is the tax law selling going to be when every asset class is higher . Here we go into the end of the year. Im going to quote the great josh brown, because im old enough to remember august. And there were specials in prime time on cnbc markets in turmoil. It was sort of recession now or recession later, but recession was coming things were definitely slowing suddenly here we are at new record highs and it appears the economy is maybe getting another breather what has changed the Global Economy is improving substantially. Last week we talked about china and the pmis and the export data germanys pmi he is and the export data. This morning we got the zew Investor Sentiment survey data from germany. Youre going deep deutsche land its very important because we were talking about global recession, and now were talking about global stability and not just the us being the leadership in growth, but seeing a recovery and these are all very important data points. Were not seeing outright enthusiasm and expansion were just getting less bad for now. But a 20 point jump in the Investor Sentiment survey in germany is something to take thats a month over month figure and that caught my eye for sure. So for absolute sure were not hitting a recession in 2020. Possibly 2021. And then you look at earnings, evaluations and you can make a very positive story. We look at the bank of America Merrill lynch survey and basically it says people have a fear of missing out. It was replaced by fear and now its fear of missing out in other words, you know what, sit tight on that thought. Weve got some breaking news from aman who is outside the Economic Club of new york. Reporter thats right, the white house has just put out some exerts of the president s remarks. Nothing about china in the stuff theyve released but i can tell you the president is going to talk about the difference, he says, between the future of american decline and the future of american dominance. Thats going to be the theme of the remarks. The president is going to say hes proud to stand before you as president today to say that we have delivered on our promises and exceeded our expectations we have ended the war on American Workers and stopped the assault on american industry and have launched an economic boom the likes of which we have never seen before. So among these excerpts that were seeing now from the white house are a lot of the sort of economic victory lap talking points that weve expected from the white house on this one. What we dont know is whether in there is some news about china, usmca, eu tariffs or the president s approach to the trade war more broadly were going to have to watch the speech here, to see what the president has to say on those front. But i think you can sum this up as very much of an economic rahrah speech and hes effectively subtweeting the impeachment process which is happening in washington this week with open hearings starting tomorrow the president s message here is you cant impeach me, the economy is great he has said that explicitly before here hes hammering the economic point home in front of the economic audience in new york city. Important breaking news there. It sounds like it could be very macro and theoretical instead of concrete i think what the market was looking for is what date are you and xi jinping going to sit down, not we have got a strong economy. We have heard that thats right. The president says that all the time we talk to him a lot at marine one t departures at the white house. Those are the economic points that he makes frequently well see whether theres any news in this speech. But as of right now the headline is the president is talking about the difference between decline and dominance under his tenure. Thank you very much well see you in a bit i want to go right now to sort of the trader, the shorter term. John najarian, should we be disappointed if we dont get the concrete details i dont really think that people are believing theyre going to get a lot of concrete details. We all thought we would get chesttrumping. Maybe not belief, but hope. I would love to have the dates and you would, too i dont think were going to see them, hear about them, until were almost right up against it, brian. Ever since the conference was canceled down in south america where xi jinping and the president might have met or were hoping to meet so i think its a matter of getting the fine print finalized. You look at it this way, rob. If we go or anybody jump into this one if he goes out there and says usa, usa, with the eagle on his shoulder at the expense of china,then maybe the odds of a deal go down because you tick china off. Youre getting closer and now youre going to come out and slam us. I would just make the point i dont think were in this era of transparency as it relates to u. S. China trade relations, so i would be skeptical if he comes out with specific dates or details. Thats not the way historically the president has operated as it relates to this. Youre right. Markets need to see incremental progression. And theres a fear that he overplays his hand and that no deal means no reelection to china. So we dont know kind of how theyre feeling about it, but if we continue to see incremental progression, i think markets can continue to lift on that youve had a lot of cash on the sideline to stephs point, to joes point, that has been drawn in over the last few weeks i think thats a result of incrementally positive news or no negative news jumping to the front burner. Theres three possible outcomes of this speech. Number one, which it doesnt sound like were going to get is specific dates and times very optimistic, the market loves it number two is sort of in the middle, nothing is really said, a lot of rahrah, which we expect or the third option is another slam on china and actually sets the trade talks back thats the only concern that i have as a participant in the capital markets, that it is a belligerent tone and similar to the tweet we received in early august that sent the market down for the month of august. Nothing belligerent. It is a shortened holiday season, one less week in the Christmas Shopping season than last year. Were already experiencing some bad weather. You want to make sure the consumers feel confident and strong when theyre looking at the economy and asset prices and theyre out there spending the disruptive thing to that would be some belligerent tone from the president on china trade tensions. Consumer sentiment was really strong on friday, so nothing has really changed on that front. Not disruptive. Thats right, and i think that we dont want disruption for sure i want not only the consumer to be strong, but businesses to feel good, businesses to start to spend that is what i want to see in 2020. And theres been a divergence ceos are becoming more negative while the consumer is becoming more or at least remaining optimistic somebody is going to be wrong. Well, thats a very good point. But i would also argue that businesses and ceos have been spending but not on capex. Capex has been depressed for a decade and since then its more of a spend on r d and innovation and that is the way these businesses are growing. So we want to see capex because it would be good for the manufacturing part of the economy. Sglp thank you very much lets go now to the president of the United States at the Economic Club of new york. Theres always somebody with a phone. It becomes life. Ask a lot of politicians that are no longer in politics. I want to thank marie gravis for your incredible leadership of the club its an honor to be here it is wonderful to be back in new york with so many friends and distinguished leaders, business and finance, academia, and i have to add in real estate, all my real estate friends are here im especially grateful for and to our Longtime Club members, because its a club with a tremendous reputation, and somebody doing an absolutely incredible job as director of the National Economic council, a friend of mine who ive been hearing this voice for 35 years, its been driving me crazy, larry kudlow [ applause ] always calm, always cool, and hes just larry. And hes terrific, ill tell you that three years ago i came to speak before this forum as a candidate for president , and at that time america was stuck in a failed recovery and saddled with a bleak economic future, and it was bleak. Under the last administrat 200,g jobs had been lost, almost 5 million americans had left the labor force, and jobs were not exactly what you would call plentiful. 10 Million People had been added to the food stamp rolls. In 2016, the department of labor predicted that americans would continue dropping out of the workforce in record numbers. They predicted and projected a decade of sluggish growth, and they expected unemployment over 5 , and really 6 , 7 , and in some cases 8 for years to come. The socalled experts said america had no choice but to accept stagnation, decay and a shrinking middle class as the new normal that was said all the time in short, the American People were told to sit back and accept a slow, inevitable decline well, i never believed for one moment that our magnificent nation was destined for a diminished future. I knew that our destiny was in our own hands, that we could choose to reject a future of america and really look at a future of american decline unacceptable, and to build a future of american dominance, which is what i wanted it couldnt be any other way, or i would have never done this i refused to accept that americans had to lower their expectations or give up on their dreams america is the single greatest country in the world, and i knew that working together, we could make it even greater in 2016 i stood before you supremely confident in what our people could achieve if government stopped punishing American Workers and started promoting American Workers and American Companies our middle class was being crushed under the weight of a punitive tax code, oppressive regulations, onesided trade deals and an Economic Policy that put americas interest last, and a very deep last at that i knew that if we lifted these burdens from our economy and unleashed our people to pursue their ambitions and realize their limitless potential, then Economic Prosperity would come thundering back to our country at a record speed. Thats whats happening. Today im proud to stand before you as president of the United States to report that we have delivered on our promises and exceeded our expectations by a very wide margin we have ended [ applause ] thank you i was waiting for that i almost didnt get it we have ended the war on American Workers, we have stopped the assault on american industry, and we have launched an economic boom the likes of which we have never seen before. I did this despite a nearrecord number of rate increases and quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve since i won the election, eight increases in total, which were in my opinion far too fast an increase and far too slow a decrease. Because, remember, we are actively competing with nations who openly cut Interest Rates so that now many are actually getting paid when they pay off their loan, known as negative interest who ever heard of such a thing give me some of that [ laughter ] i want some of that money our Federal Reserve doesnt let us do it i dont say thank you, thank you, the smart people are clapping [ applause ] only the smart people are clapping i dont say thats good for the world. Im not president of the world, im president of our country but we are competing against these other countries, nonetheless, and the Federal Reserve doesnt let us play at that game. It puts us as a competitive disadvantage to other countries. Yet in the face of this reality, our economic policies have ushered in an unprecedented tide of prosperity surging all throughout the nation. Were paying interest, by other comparisons were paying high interest we should be paying by far the lowest interest, and yet were doing better than any nation by far on earth the extraordinary numbers tell the stories. Back in 2016 before i took office, the Congressional Budget Office projected that fewer than 2 million jobs would be created by this time in 2019 instead, my administration has created nearly 7 million jobs, and going up rapidly we beat predictions [ applause ] thank you we beat predictions by more than three times the highest estimate that i saw during the Campaign Nobody thought it was even possible to get close to a 7 million number 2 million was maxed out, if you were lucky and if you did a great job unemployment has recently achieved the lowest rate in 51 years. Africanamerican unemployment, hispanicamerican unemployment and asianamerican unemployment have all reached the lowest rates in history womens unemployment, the best numbers in 71 years. We expect that that number of 71 years, which isnt good compared to the other numbers, is it . But women also will soon be historic, we think blue collar jobs are leading the way in our middle class boom weve added 25,000 mining jobs, 128,000 energy jobs, 1. 2 Million Manufacturing and construction jobs, and manufacturing was supposed to be dead in our country. You would need, according to a past administration representative, at the highest level of that past administration, you would need a magic wand to bring back manufacturing jobs well, we brought them back and we brought them back to over 600,000 manufacturing jobs as of today. [ applause ] and those are very important jobs nearly 7 Million People have been lifted off, very importantly, food stamps 7 Million People off of food stamps [ applause ] and were getting americans off of welfare and back into the workforce. [ applause ] nearly 2. 5 million americans have risen out of poverty. Thats a record. The rate of africanamerican and h hispanicamerican families in poverty has plummeted to the lowest level ever recorded by far. [ applause ] most of you people wouldnt know these numbers because most of you arent very active in the market but since my election, the s p 500 is up over 45 , the dow jones is up over 50 , and the nasdaq is up 60 , slightly more. [ applause ] and if we had a Federal Reserve that worked with us, you could have added another 25 to each one of those numbers, i guarantee you that that doesnt happen. But we all make mistakes, dont we not too often. We do make them on occasion. American markets have vastly outpaced the rest of the world this exceptional growth is boosting 401 k s, pensions and College Savings accounts for millions and millions of hardworking families. You hear so much about inequality and all of the differences and all of the problems is isingle biggest ben factors are lowincome and middleclass families altogether weve added nearly 10 trillion of new value to our economic and thats in a short period of time remember, i only used numbers from the time of the election, because i cant go to january 20th its not fair. We picked up tremendous stock market and economic numbers. They actually went wild the day after i won. I think that should be attributed to us, not attributed to somebody else, because it would have gone in the opposite direction. It would have gone in the opposite direction had the other result taken place, which fortunately it didnt. Last year gdp growth matched the fastest rate in more than a decade, and it was the best of the g7 countries by far, by far. Perhaps, most importantly, after years of stagnation and decline, american wages, salaries and incomes are rising very fast Median Household Income is now at the highest level in the history of our country [ applause ] the average Median Income under president bush rose only 400 over an eightyear period under president obama it rose 975 over an eightyear period and under my administration it rose 5,000 over slightly more than just two and a half years thats a big difference. [ applause ] and if you remember, president obama was paying zero percent interest for a long period of time, while were paying a much higher rate of interest but in addition to the 5,000, we have to add 2,200 for the tax cuts, average tax cuts, and 2,000 to 3,000 for regulatory and energy cuts. So that would be a total of almost 10,000 versus 400 and versus 975. So thats something. So you have over eight years, you have 400, over eight years you have 975, over two and a half years, were almost up to 3, but this was done and calculated only as of 2 1 2, and were at almost 10,000. So our consumers, because of this, are in the best shape probably in the history of our country, and i think its going to be very long lasting. Very, very long lasting. This also allows me the latitude and timing to take some of the horrible, incompetent, just terrible trade deals that have been made over the years and make them great. Its like make America Great again, make the trade deals great. I dont know if i can use the word again make them great, period, because i dont think they were ever any good i havent seen it. We were great and then we werent so great, but were great again. And by the way, our jobs, im glad this is today, because they Just Announced we have the highest number of people working in our country in the history of our country, almost 160 Million People weve never been close to that number [ applause ] so weve achieved this stunning turnaround because weve adopted a new Economic Policy that finally puts america first. As president , i understand and embrace the fact that the world is a place of fierce competition. Were competing against other nations for jobs and Industry Growth and prosperity. Factories and businesses will always find a home its up to us to decide whether that home will be in a foreign country or right here in our country, our beloved usa, and thats where we want them to stay and be and move to. [ applause ] if we want our families and communities to prosper, america must be the best place on earth to work, invest, innovate, build, pursue a career, hone a craft, or start a business we Want Companies to move to america, stay in america, and hire American Workers. My mission is to put our country on the very best footing to thrive, excel, compete, and to win. For many years our leaders in washington did the exact opposite they imposed the highest Corporate Tax rates in the developed world, so high that people couldnt even understand what they were doing and they would leave, very, very smart executives didnt want to leave, but they would leave, sending our jobs and Everything Else all aflutter they waged an unethical regulatory assault on the American People. They tried to shut down american energy, and by the way, theyre still trying you want to see energy shut down take a look at what im competing against on the other side i dont think they even believe in energy. So far i havent found any form of energy thats acceptable to them i think they think the factories are just going to work without energy they dont have a clue, these people but i dont want to mention it yet. I want to wait a little bit longer let them go a little bit further so they cant take it back because as a campaign, i like it i like it very much. [ applause ] let them keep talking, every time they talk i say, boy, this looks like it might be easier than i anticipated they passed the disastrous trade deals that encourage the shudering of american plants and the offshoring of american jobs by the millions. In short, the failed Political Class sold out American Workers, sold out give me some of that money, i want some of that money. The president urging the Federal Reserve to cut rates welcome, everybody, im Brian Sullivan good to have you back. We will be monitoring trumps speech and bringing you headlines, of course, and the q a should begin soon. What weve heard is a big tout on the American Company for the president. Calling the american decline over and suggesting a new era of american dominance in the Global Economy. The president highlighting growth and jobs and also saying how many of those who are negative on the economy have been wrong its also fair to say this, he has taken a few and probably will take more roundhouses at the Federal Reserve, suggesting, saying that rates are too high and that the fed not cutting rates doesnt let us play in that game, meaning the global race to the bottom also touting stock market gains, the markets up 40 , 50 , and 60 since he took office and joe, he said if we had a fed who worked with us, we could have add today 25 more to those stock market numbers in other words, if the fed would have done what i said, cut rates, we would be up 25 more than we are right now. Your take . He did have a Federal Reserve that was friendly. He a Federal Reserve that made a dramatic pivot in the month of january and cut rates, and even more importantly, increased the size of the Balance Sheets specifically here in the fall. So they provided the needed liquidity. Obviously i disagree with those comments i think the fed has done what theyre supposed to do and we have now from the president comments that are on script, comments that are focused on the economy, and comments that i dont believe will be belligerent or disruptive to the markets unless we hear something in the i was obviously not around to hear you know, truman talk about William Martin or greenspans early days i dont know if ive ever heard direct attacks on the Federal Reserve from a president , at least in the last 20 to 25 years. Yeah, and yet its something that we get used to all the time now, brian. There were three in the first 15 minutes and there may be more now. Well probably go back and hear them. And maybe when he gets asked some questions and we go back for that, maybe there will be somebody that asks him about that whether or not he thinks thats productive for him to attack the Federal Reserve chair. Overall, though, i agree with joe that, although since january the fed has been benign and positive for the market, moving rates up rather quickly, even though as 25 basis points at a time, those came despite the rest of the worlds slowing and i think it did make things a lot tougher here, brian, for u. S. Exports, because that just jacked the dollar like crazy versus a lot of these other currencies, in my opinion. So i think what youre seeing here is a foreshadowing of whats to come and what needs to break right. Everything that hes talking about is the economy, and he clearly understands that positioning needs to be maintained going into the election. What positioning . Meaning that the economy has to continue on this trajectory these positive numbers have to continue and if you look, what hes trying to to do is cauterize anything that could impact that on the negative side and so one second, brian. If he continues to give progression on trade, its a little too early for him to have a trade deal probably because he needs to sustain this momentum going forward. So it needs to happen in a progression fashion with the hope, like i said before, that he has not overplayed his hand and hes going to continue to beat on this drum, because thats further insurance that allows him to campaign on this same topic, which is the economic trajectory, the jobs trajectory, the earnings trajectory for companies, and ultimately the good that hes done for the middle class by creating jobs. I think its also important to emphasize that this is phase one of a potential trade resolution, that there will be one more and maybe a third before we get to the 2020 election so its critical for the investors out there to understand that we might get phase one of a resolution, but theres still about incrementality that we have to fully have a trade deal done by the time the election hits or if President Trump wants to get that reelection successful otherwise, its going to be a little bit contentiousness going on. I think you need phase one to continue to see this momentum. In the economy, but also in the markets, in earnings, et cetera. Thats already priced in. But you do need it. And you need it sooner rather than later so i actually disagree that it can come later its got to come i think by the end of this year and if it doesnt, then i think youre going to have a hard time do we need a rate cut, stephanie . No, i dont think so. He said it three times at least. He might want it but rates are low. Which is right, because 14 to 15 trillion of the world is negative but we also have better growth other than china and india. I agree with stephanie. It was an interesting line that was being walked, on one hand talking about the economy is better than its ever been and then on the other hand saying we need immediate and aggressive rate cuts. We dont have a threat on inflation yet. You heard him saying that. And it gives us less insurance for whenever they do have more potential economic weakness. We might need the rate cut if the president is unable to secure a date or a phase one deal then were going to need the rate cut but i think the market has been comfortable so far, not with the actual date, but just knowing that at some point you will get a date. Maybe the best date is at some point mid to late january so the consumers can be happily out there spending through the end of the year and we can have the date set and we know its coming at some point in 2020, and if it gets canceled, its on the other side of the new year. But he has to know that the manufacturing part of this economy is in a recession and struggling he has to know that. So he does need to get some progress on trade. Thats a great point. And i want to be clear to our audience because some of the people on the twitter machine this speech right now is very historical and broadbased if he makes any current headlines about future policy in the q a, were definitely going to go to that. This is sort of we were stagnating, now were great again. Its sort of a historical thing. Its not moving the markets literally at all i just want to make sure our audience is aware that we are monitoring every word the president says and we will go back most likely for the q a we didnt hear a lot on the economy other than its great, but that we also need a rate cut. If the president were to Say Something specific that you think would move markets, not involving trade, what would it be so i think the one thing that i look at is markets are pricing in further rate cuts so i think the one risk that you face out there is that the fed disappear points markets on that front. I think the fed is going to continue to be pragmatic and theyre going to look at the data and if we have a deflationary scare, theyre going to act accordingly. I think the president is trying to get ahead of that so that you dont get the cuts and then markets trade because of that. He did tout a 60 gain in the nasdaq since he took over as president. Sure, and slightly more. And he said we would get another 25 if the fed cut rates and he talked about deregulation how much of that run do you think is directly attributable to him in the white house . I would say theres a presentee decent amount of it by the roll back in regulations that has been a significant contributor. And i think overall what were focusing on is if the dollar weakens, thats going to be great for us exports, great for farmers who are some of our largest exporters. Thats why that number comes up all the time with the trade with china in particular the dollar has been going up this year. You bet it has. Not up a ot, but its up. And it was a lot more last year now i think if, indeed, the fed is done increasing rates, brian, and is taking a pause, perhaps, on the decreasing side as well i think the dollar could actually find a little weakness in the next year, which would be very positive. It would be very positive and economically the reason that the dollar would find lower price points is because theres an economic recovery outside the u. S. It goes back to the trade tensions and the trade dispute, the real negative result has been outside of the u. S. The negative result has been on germany. Look at the german ten years, negative 75 basis points, now negative 25 basis points that healing is on the optimism surrounding phase one and the possibility that something is going to get done. That is very critical in the equation of what john is talking about, getting a lower dollar, getting beyond 2019 some positive momentum economically. Theres two ways to look at that global evolution, margaret, which number one, its good that germany is growing and france is growing and brazil is growing, because now the whole world grows. Or time to sell u. S. Stocks because theyre growing and theyre going to be better values for our money that are going to attract more Foreign Investment and capital. I think the emphasis is the point of having a diversified Global Portfolio its critical because you want to have exposure to u. S. Stocks that have the higher growth trajectory, but you also want to have some of the value orientation and some of the international growth, which at some point if we have a bottoming in global pmis and a bottoming in the manufacturing recession, those International Stocks are likely to outperform u. S. Just on the valuation alone. Thats why the cyclicals are growing. Thats why i cited all the things at the top. You have to Pay Attention to germany. Unfortunately, you just do. And the bond markets, to joe and your opinion, the bond markets are signaling risk right now with the move that weve seen. Theres been a sharp rise in yields i mean, we were inverted just a couple of months ago and it was on the front page of not the business section, but of the news thats a sharp rise, but a steepening. It is so what does that tell us about financials, about industrials . Thats why theyre doing well. Month to date, those are the sectors that are leading energy is up 5 , financial is up 4 and change you might be the expert to tell us the energy reel. Im not sure im the expert at anything. But i do know that Chesapeake Energy came out the other day and said it may not be able to continue as a Corporation Due to its large debt. Its 70 cents i dont know even know if energy is relevant anymore in this conversation i think whats relevant is positioning. Thank you, because i spend like 70 of my time working on that i appreciate that. Youre part of the Energy Renaissance in this country. Thank you. Whats relevant is that markets were positioned for a recession on labor day we are now two months later, we are unwinding and in position for a recession, now we are positioning for something but i want to get into strategy i drove back yesterday from virginia eight hours listening to greg zuckermans interesting book their whole thing is buy high, sell higher, its follow the trend. The fundamentalists are high low, sell high if youre buying low, the only thing that appears kind of low right now is energy. If youre doing some kind of fundamental analysis so do we go with the stuff that not just energy what else is cheap . Industrials, financials, materials, energy. Its interesting because that bank of america report today that came out fear of missing out. They werent buying industrials or energy. Theyre buying Everything Else, which is interesting i just think that theres opportunity. I think when caterpillar goes up on a real horrible print thats very, very telling and a lot of the industrials have done well do you buy whats working because it will continue to work it depends on the time. I think in this case, yes, youre going to the time is right now, rob. The timing is dependent on what type of an environment youre in, and i think in this type of environment specifically when most have felt its a late cycle, so youve seen the rotation step back to the cyclicals because investors are saying maybe the cycle is not over but i think youre going to get definitely a slowdown, and in that type of environment youre going to want to own where the pockets of strength are. The consumers are strong you want to continue to own those. You might want to throw some mean reverting categories in there that are cyclical. Some of the International Names are cheap. Were not doing that yet were not chasing the cyclicles. Thats exactly the point i was trying to make do you sell the winners . No. I dont want to say double down, but do you continue to ride the winners what about the expensive winners . It all has to do with fundamentals are valuations. I dont know whats expensive but you do. Staples are, discretionary is not. Im thinking about technology, the highfliers that are making money, theyre expensive relative to what youre getting. Youre getting growth but not you pay 60 for a steak, its well worth it. If i go to a Country Kitchen and pay the same, its not worth it. Lets focus on the industries that are under disruption. Yes, the markets have had an incredible rally and all the industries that are cyclical are having this rally. But we have holiday coming up and plenty of companies that are still at risk of losing market share to the big winners of the target, costco, amazon so theres still a disruption to be had within the industries of these sectors and i think thats important to note going into this period where we have such high markets. That was a good discussion. The president is still speaking. We are expecting, by the way, his q a. I think its fair to say thats where the meat of the country kitch kitchen buffet is going to be. Were going to talk individual names, boeing leading the dow yesterday, disney plus, two dow components the president is talking t table is just full of good Holiday Cheer and were back right after this when i lost my sight, my biggest fear was losing my independence. Mmm. Good. So ive spent my life developing technology to help the visually impaired. We are so good. We built a guide that uses ibm watson. To help the blind. It is already working in cities like tokyo. My dream is to help millions more people like me. Whether your beauty routine in cis 3or 57,. Kyo. Make natures bounty hair skin and nails step one. Its the number one brand uniquely formulated for silky hair, glowing skin and healthy nails. Natures bounty, because youre better off healthy. Doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacistrecommendeding . Memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Just a reminder, the president is speaking. There you go the Economic Club of new york. If he makes any headlines around particularly china and trade or a combination thereof, well monitor the q a as well. For now, though, lets switch gears and talk about the stock really of the year, and that is boeing reporting october orders and deliveries, commercial plane fell last month as some customers opted out of the 737 max jet. Stephanie, you added to your position do you care do you care if a customer says i dont want any plane, but to go from a 37 to an 87, do you care . I dont care. I want them to make progress on 737 max period and they are. Certification was completed last week software fix is in place now they get probably another month or two before we can get the faa to approve it. Theyre making progress and thats all you need to have the stock start to act better. There are so many pms that are underweight this stock, and they should be. I got in early, for sure but i cant time it. I cant time it as well, brian so i just want them to make progress once theyre making progress, which they are, i feel better. I added to it. Its now my largest industrial positionbehind j. E i think theyre 2020 stocks to look out for. There have been at least three delays getting it back into service now were looking at january, maybe first quarter. Is there a point at which you throw in the towel and say i cant wait anymore no, i think theyre making progress that was what was different yesterday, that the certification got passed last week and now the software fix is done so they dont have to rejigger on the software piece. Thats a big part of it. Is it a month or two before they get approval i dont know, but i think its coming and the stock is going to react just like it did yesterday on that news. I bought the boeing 370 calls with an expiration at the end on a friday at the end of november. Reason for it, i wanted to limit my risk. I wanted to make sure that we were clear of the 200day moving average and the resistant at 368 and 369. I agree with everything stephanie said i think yesterday was important. It seemed to me that the Company Actually gave you guidance on when that certification is going to occur at some point in mid december there are head winds ahead and there is the return to service in europe. Theres the potential that customers are going to look at this and say we dont want to fly and dont know the reality of that. But i do suspect that whats really important is that the software gets certified by the faa and i think thats coming based on the guidance yesterday. The reason i want to be in the stock. Lets move on another dow stock on the move and in the news. You might have heard about this. Disney officially launching its longawaited disney plus streaming service. Everybody around this table im told owns disney shares. Any options activity in disney last week they were buying the 135 calls when the stock was 131 last week what does that tell you well, the stock popped to 142 so that worked out okay. How about this . This was shortterm. Do you sense any longerterm bullishness on the options side around disney . Not longer term, no but its not uncommon at all for any stock to see a lot of speculative paper come in, either bullish, bearish, both, into their earnings. And then afterwards to see a quiet or a lull, not because they must or because they have to zip or anything like that, just that people are saying, okay, lets let it settle then well position again. Youre not selling your rings . But i did take profits on disney i own no more stock. On the stock side i only own calls out in january. So i was incorrect at the top. I was fake news when i said everybody owns disney shares john no longer does. When it popped to 141 i was out, and it went to 142 that same day it was a gift in the premarket it came out with those earnings, brian. They were stellar examine the stock squeezed lik who bought johns shares from him . You get my point we werent buying at 140 sgl140. For potential new investors, we view disney as a longterm secular winner this is a company thats backed by the Shareholder Base to disrupt their own business you have seen the success today even with Technology Issues that new consumers to the platform are having i had it this morning. I signed up last night that shows you deet mathe deman built up to go digital and do it successfully and unlock a ton of value. Its 100 about subscriptions. The subscriptions are sticky one more thing, i dont think dr. J is trading these rings for anything. Thats right. Do the numbers on disney. I like math. Here is the thing. The new star warswars live action i watched it this morning i loved it im the target audience i have a 5yearold son 100 million to make for the series do the math at 6. 99 a month you are looking at two Million People a month to stay in the game to break even on one show right. You are happy with you are okay with that you need the talking point like we just did. Absolutely. If you look at it i look at it, yes, Huge Investment for on show that creates the stickiness of the franchise. Its not just about the consumer watching that. Its that vicious not vicious but a good cycle of continuous viewing the streaming, viewing content. Thats going to drive more consumers going to see the new star wars coming out in december. Theres no episode that week. The numbers gave are six months. What we learned the biggest risk around any of these companies is what happened to netflix when game of thrones came out they will cut their subscription until something comes. Then they resign. This is the risk to disney. Thats a targeted audience. Valuation the stock is up 30 . A lot of good news is priced in. Agree with the product that wont matter if the e keeps going up. How do you know the e is going to go up if they have to invest in they ha invest they have to aggressively address this the easy money has been made on this when you look at the 200 million that was paid for the morning show or thenumbers might be north of that apple tv . Yeah. Versus 100 million for this, you have a stone win we are this versus the apple one you have the embedded the star wars folks all the Disney Library for kids you dont have anything for the morning show. Fair enough here we go. Hold tight President Trump will take q and a after his speech we will keep an eye on that. If he says anything about the markets, trade, china or your money we will do that. The desk is taking your questions. Hati rorext. The lfmeept returns in two minutes. Is the monolithic view of emerging markets obsolete . At pgim, we see alpha in the trends driving specific sectors of outperformance. Where a rising middle class powers a booming auto industry. A leap into the digital era draws youthful populations to mobile banking and ecommerce. Trade and travel surge between emerging markets. Every day, our 1,100 investment professionals around the world search out opportunities for alpha. Partner with pgim, the Global Investment management businesses of prudential. Nongmo, made with naturally sundown vitamins are all sourced colors and flavors and are gluten dairy free. Theyre all clean. All the time. Even if sometimes were not. Sundown vitamins. All clean. All the time. Wow giving one. How did you guys. . Dont ask. The lexus december to rembember sales event get 0 percent apr for 60 months on all 2019 models. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Twilio shares have fallen 30 from their alltime high in june they are expecting a bounce from here john, whats unusual about this . They are buying the 98. 50 calls that expire this friday. Theres chatter about somebody getting involved potentially i care more about the actual numbers. They are buying them in big numbers. 7,100 calls have traded. More volume than you usually see in a full session. All the way across several different expirations. Kraft heinz today, khc, we seeing big buying, 11,700 calls. December calls maybe this thing is ready to make a little bit of a move. Thats a weird move not an option favorite. 32. 60 or thereabout its not a big reach to get to 34 its a cheap shot. Lastly, quick update in se they wanted to update you. S p 500 up 23 this year. Kraft heinz down 23 it has been trying to catch up traders are answering your questions. First up for joe, tim in maryland wants an update on lululemon. Its trading near and alltime high at 208. They will report earnings november 27. You want to know whether longterm growth runway will continue to be longer than investors expect i expect that will be the Case International is the key its only 11 of their sales i believe they have the ability to Grow International significantly. Tesla, breakout there are bets about that price target was just raised from 300 to 400. I like it. I think it continues to move to the up side and squeezes folks for rob, energy, we talked about it due for a rally . It had a rally. Mini. 4 . Has it had a rally . A mini rally. People think its going to continue the supply demand characteristics arent favora e favorable. Its likely a topic debated in the election norm in wisconsin wants to know how to trade walgreens. It might get bought out. Reports, some lbo estimates, the stock could be taken out i would rather own cvs. Joe in new jersey want to know should he hold or sell uri . I would sell half its up 51 year to date still cheap. I would sell half. Kick off our final trade. Air products, great quarter they raised margins, the whole nine yards. How about health care ihi, a medical devices, etf. Im going with cocacola. Swept up in this value good dividend. Strong growth rate high Quality Company that if we get any issue with trade. Tlt, i think the rally has moved far. Lkq i like all of you thank you very much. Quality show that does it for us. Thank you very much. Welcome to the exchange. The president speaking at the new york Economic Club right now talking up the economy under his administration the record highs in the stock market and the nations low Unemployment Rate among other things the president addressing trade saying that china deal, phase one could happen soon. He said they are dieing for a deal we will decide trump also stressing that we dont have reciprocal deals with a lot of countries, not ju