President trump. The Investment Committee is ready to go. The Halftime Report starts right now. Welcome. Good to have you with us on this tuesday. Our Investment Committee at the table. Joe t lets begin with stocks. Under pressure as you know new tariffs in place you had that weak reading on manufacturing, investors are on edge you have the worst month for stocks historically. You have to deal with new tariffs, the economy, risks are starting to stack up against the stock market yeah. This is not a great team as you mentioned, but if were dealing with trade its painful every day. The bigger question is are we headed for recession or just headed for Slower Growth i think we are just headed for Slower Growth. Something like 2 , maybe a bit less gdp growth. Yes, jobs have been strong wages good, consumption on friday, youre running at almost a 3 annualized growth rate on top of last quarter that was 4. 7 consumption growth. The consumer is still okay and its the bulk of the growth of the economy. Lest you think its a lagging indicator rather than some leading indicators which are getting more negative by the day. The troublesome thing is that we are down to basically the consumer as thats where the support is in the market theres parts of this economy that are clearly in a recession. Manufacturing is in a recession. And has been. But now its getting worse. And its getting worse. I think when you look at, as what we do for a living, trying to identify opportunities and equities, you think back about august, there was something troubling, that was the underperformance in the s p for Small Companies. Small companies are absorbing this economic weakness more than the Larger Companies if you take in the s p 500 in the month of august, the bottom ten performers are all companies with market caps of less than 15 billion. The Smaller Companies are feeling that economic weakness the russell is getting hit. The transports im talking specific to the s p 500 itself we need to have those Small Companies begin to participate otherwise when you select opportunities in the equities market, it will get harder and harder you can only stay defensive for so long. Kate, how do you view where we are and where we may be going . We kind of agree with the premise that were not heading into a recession i totally agree parts of the economy are super soft the industrial side, the manufacturing side thats not how were positioned in our portfolio were looking for fast rivers of cash flow. Were looking for growth we done believe growth is going to meaningfully underperform value. Something like that requires an acceleration in economic growth, not a further degradation in expectations i will say, its very difficult to make calls right now. Theres a tug of war in the equity market between expectations that earnings will be downgraded and the fact that people dont feel richly positioned in the equity market. Huge outflows from Global Equities through the year. 2 200 billion, could be up to 30 billion annualized i dont think weve seen a lot of investors put new money to work some of the recession fears are already in position. Whats the case for putting new money to work in the market today . Well, the case is that with mounting risk. The things you have to buy in ten years and 20 years will cost more than they cost today. So, if you have nominal dollars in the bank, you think youre being safe because youre worried about a 10 , 20 drop in the stock market, understand there are things worse than that that exist in your lifetime. One of those things is not being able to afford your lifestyle in the future thats the case. Its always the case now, nobody wants to buy on the day that three days later the market is down 700 points. Everybody wants to feel good and smart when they make investments. We had a nice run to end august listen, sometimes things are simpler than other teams right now i file its Pretty Simple a barbell portfolio is getting the job done and making you look and feel smart every day that barbell on the equity side is simple. Reits are up today, utilities are up today, Telecom Companies are up today some Consumer Staples are up the index is green this is a portion of your portfolio, companies that do not require 2 , 3 gdp growth in order to work. Thats where you will find them. Those stocks are going up almost every day. On the other side, froth companies that are in secular bull markets do not require a global cyclical growth they dont make copper these stocks are working every day. Like what give me a couple names heres a whole Industry Group in a massive bull market ihi, the Ticker Symbol for the blackrock medical device sector. These stocks all sell at 20 times to 3t need a good economyo make numbers theres 57 in that index or just own the etf. Ten years, uninterrupted bull market shes stocks are working why . Theres 72 million boomers they will spend the next 20 years replacing and repairing every single part of themselves. This is a bull market that doesnt rely on trumps tweets, chinas agreements if youre looking for the right approach, own the safe stuff that pays good yields, and then have some secular growth and skip all the ugly stuff in the middle is that the way youll make money in the market . I heard a fight between you guys the other day fight we didnt mean it fight or disagreement over, you know, bonds vers stocks and this that and the other thing. Josh lays out a case where you can make money in an unsex y wa. Its no longer the f. A. N. G. Names, but maybe not the best way to make money in the months ahead. I think what hes saying, a lot of it i agree with this concept you will trade trump tweets, which way the trade winds are blowing versus u. S. china is an easy way to lose money finding the companies that you believe in for whatever reason, if they fit joshs barbell, thats great if they fit cash flow generation if they fit the dumbbell. If you hold them through whatever ups or downs the markets will bring when i talk about cash flow generation, you have to be a healthy, happy company to generate cash flow if you see that coming back in the form of buy backs, dividends, that makes me feel comfortable. I look at stocks where the share count has been reduced meaningfully year over year. We only have the Second Quarter reports to go on did you know citi group reduced its share count by 10 year over year in the Second Quarter you look at citigroup, you might want to say i dont own citigroup. Look at that chart fine that means it may not go up today. When you look at this a year from now, 6, 9 months from now, when were downstream of whatever way the china trade winds blow, well feel good about it Goldman Sachs was up there, cisco systems. Cisco reduced its share count 9 apple 6. 7 this is meaningful cash flow generation you can only do that if youre a healthy company. What are the thoughts out there today . That the markets are on thin ice . Does anybody think theyre not on thin ice . I love the metals defensive things going up, metals going up. The metals are doing what many of us thought they were supposed to. Maybe because the market is on thin ice, no . Somewhat. Whether its the miners, or slv slv is up 29 in three months i got more that ill talk about on unusual activity today. I think a lot of people saw that ism number this morning and panicked because we were making a little bit of a comeback prior to that number at 10 00 eastern. Then we rolled over. The industrials dont really drive our economy anymore. People traded this morning like they do. In 2015 and 2016 we had those socalled industrial recessions. The precursor of the ism falling below 50 never happened never materialized in 2015, 2016 ill reiterate what josh was saying this is not a play where you want to go out there manufacturing slipped below 50 for the First Time Since 2016. I guess i better hammer out a bunch of stocks. I hear you, but you cant ignore some of these leading indicators of economic worry railcars, carpet sales weak, manufacturing truck orders. Theres a lot of real weakness out there but some of that is bottoming. You think bottoming its possible we will get some of these cyclical indicators bottoming in the second half. Some of the industrial stuff has been deteriorating for quarters now. If we can get stabilization, not a reacceleration, that will restore confidence to answer your question around are we on thin ice it doesnt feel like were on thin ice because of the consumer and because well have policy support. Whatever the nmagnitude of that is, we can debate. Morgan stanley sort of reiterates this view that were past the point where the fed can do anything. You disagree with that yeah. Theres a question theres a question whether or not monetary policy, big rate cuts will send the equity market to 3,500 in the nearterm. I think i important that we continue to get this sort from global policymakers. Its not just the fed. Its also the ecb. The ecb is all in. Its targeted fiscal in china. This combination of adding liquidity, adding support. Uts, s the environment. What do you think lagarde does for the ecb theres people who are better experts on the ecb than i am a lot of expectations around moves next week are priced into the market one thing weve been talking about and my boss and i have talked about a number of times is that theres a possibility that the ecb changes their Asset Purchase Program to include nontraditional assets or perhaps equities something dramatic like that might restoriere Risk Appetite the market even how the Global Economy is now i think you could say its impacting the u. S. Economy in a way others had not been admitting for a while. The sentiment transition is really important well watch this closely thats the number one thing were all watching, business sentiment, consumer confidence, whether or not whats happening on trade affects activity. If we get some nearterm detente, or some marginal progress at the same time the industrial data bottoms out some legitimate phone calls maybe . A phone call that actually happens, that may restore some confidence that has been shaken in the last few weeks. You raise an important point when you talk about sentiment. A lot of this stuff is precarious enough that it hangs on what a couple of Million People decide to do differently from what they did a month prior, like do they spend that extra 50 on the third restaurant meal of that week do they hire that last employee that maybe they wouldnt hire if they felt somewhat less confident or do they not hire them those decisions on a micro level but extrapolated across population of Business Owners and consumers nobody has ever built a machine that predicts the stock market or the economy because no one can quantify when we reach that Tipping Point where people dont spend the marginal dollar or take the marginal risk i feel like, you know, the Morgan Stanley view that its past the point, well have recession no matter what, this might be right but you wont know that Tipping Point when it becomes official until way after. Its tough you follow the sentiment data. You try to say, all right, maybe its extreme people got too negative. Now people are too positive. At a certain point it falls to a point where it doesnt come back i dont think were there. Thats my view i dont know that i would know in realtime any way. The other idea forgive me for stopping you earlier, i wanted to get to kate. This notion that these companies are retiring all these shares, buying back stock. What happens if the environment gets precarious to the point where theyre not spending, whether theyre buying back shares or hiring people, theyre just battening down the happet s they kind of already are. Oneeish thesis out there, you have buybacks to continue to support the market i think they will continue to buyback, but i think they wont invest in their companies, i think that will only get worse if businesses dont have confidence this might be a continuation of our discussion on friday, theres no inability of companies, particularly at the bbb level to access capital. Its a question of what rate theyre paying theyre paying very low rates. If theyre buying back lowinterest payment debt right now its because maybe well get to pay negative Interest Rates i dont think thats going to happen i think the worst case maybe they want to pay down debt when they have the cash but why they had higher levels of debt, why wouldnt they . If theyre yielding 2. 5 , effectively thats free. Does anyone think there are blue chip u. S. Companies that are some point will be able to quish issue if not negative yielding debt zero percent . No. Theyre issuing mortgage bonds with negative yields you dont think well get to that point no. Apple nobody i learned to say nothing is ever totally impossible. Berkshire hathaway getting to a european style rate environment in the u. S. , when i think there is good underlying growth, seems tough the debt market is fine now lenders are willing to extend maturities im not very sure that very much changes about the characteristic of the entire mosaic of asset prices you look at the industries in recession. Do you want to buy equities in a Steel Company now . I dont think so you think about having the barbell, 25 basis points higher or lower, you could see either side of that 170 tenyear or a 120 tenyear at a 120 tenyear, you better have your reits and utilities and other things some people on the street today are talking up the biggest names in the market. Amazon, rbcputs it at 2,600. It doesnt need Global Growth to do that but a lot of the reasoning behind that is youre introducing more and more investors into the equities market so you think about 76 million millennials. You think about genz behind that they will invest in the market theyll do it robotically and theyll look for companies where they can find the visible growth by definition a lot of those names are in technology. I think that buffers the market. Its back to the story, market goes to a lot of different places, ultimately ends up nowhere. Scott, to your point about amazon, last night rbc came out with that comment on amazon. Last night at 30 minutes past midnight the stock opened down and is now 45 off the lows of the day. People had plenty of time to react to that if they wanted to. They chose not to. They chose to sell wrong move not as exposed to the china trade issue. Here it is back over 1,800 i think the stock gets pushed down at every index other than the dow. Just like apple its xlk, s p 500, so the big guys come in and want to sell the whole market the fundamental guys that are actually looking to the futures are buying amazon. Youre right. That explains why some of the yielding stocks have come back the editor of this china global times, which we talk about a lot to on the show, whether you want to say its the Propaganda Machine for china orb just how they reach us, that editor said i dont know whether the president is offering us an olive branch or threatening us he said we wont cave to pressure or bullying, but we are there to negotiate thats out there people have not focussed on that yet. Lets see if they do today or tomorrow what if they sit on the cash . A lot of these companies are paying 3 to 4 on the dividend yield, its easy for them if cash is yielding zero, buy back those shares, you dont have to pay those dividends. In two weeks the fed holds its september meeting. Our next guest argues it would be a grave mistake, William Cohen joins us now from nantucket. Bill, welcome back to the program. Good to have you on. Great to be here. Save us from the next financial crisis it wasnt that long ago that the fed lowering Interest Rates from 6 to 1 caused the hunger yield hunger games to kick off what happened in 2007 and 2008 now weve had yields on treasury, shortterm Interest Rates lower than that for more than a decade and the fed is still talking about potentially lowering rates again its unbelievable to me that people cannot remember ten years ago when the exact same thing happened this is only worse we got more data today that is concerning. You would agree with that, right . Ism manufacturing under 50 markets are banking on the fed coming to the rescue big mistake if you ask me i know ive been listening to the show, its interesting, talking about opportunities in the stock market, but people people have to focus on the bond market which is four times bigger approximately, and its replete with risk now. Returns on the highyield bond market index is like 5. 5 . Thats absurd. Those bonds should be yielding 10 or 11 to account for the risk of the companies that are issuing them yes, its a great time to be an issuer of debt yes, borrowers are getting away with all sorts of things but its a huge mistake. The people buying those debt securities, four times the size of the equity market, are taking huge amounts of risk when the economy key cups hiccu little bit, all of that will come forward and people will lose trillions of dollars, then the credit markets will freeze up then nobody will get access to capital. Nobody can get access, thats when things go down the tubes and fast talk about confidence. You make a comment about the july rated cut which you say was a mistake. You say mr. Powell and his colleagues at the fed need to stand up to mr. Trump and do whats right for the economy if they dont, the only question that remains is when will it all blow up . When it does, that day will be soon, we will be staring down yet another financial panic. That doesnt feel hyperbolic not to me, scott. Ive written two books about the 2008 financial crisis. One about the collapse of bear stearns, one about how Goldman Sachs avoided going down the tubes. This scenario happens over and over again and new investors just do not have the memory for this its so distressing. We have financial crises in this country basically once every 20 years. Its always the same scenario. Borrowing short, lending long in the Banking System yes, the fed to some degree has pushed some of that risk out of the big banks into the shadow Banking System, but the riskt t everywhere when the high yield bond index is yielding 5. 5 , people are overpaying for the risk theyre taking and the rewards theyre getting. You seem to imply in the example i just read that the fed lowered rates in july. Powell bowed to president trumps demand that they cut Interest Rates is ta what you are implying by saying im not even implying it. Im saying it. He did cave to trumps pressure. What was he supposed to do with the trade war thats having a ream l impact on the economy . Not lower Interest Rates. Hes inviting people to take more and more risk in a much bigger bond market than currently exists this is what happened leading up to 2007 and 2008 were doing it more. This time its been going on for a decade Interest Rates have been manipulated down low jeffrey gundlach, so many people agree with me. This has been going on for way too long jay powell should say enough im not going to cave to the president wanting me to lower Interest Rates i will do whats right for the economy. I will gradually increase Interest Rates to give debt investors a return for the risk theyre taking so bond prices begin to fall and Interest Rates go back up that will in effect stave off what will definitely be a financial crisis yes, it might result in the economy slowing a bit. But isnt that better than a complete financial catastrophe like we had in 2008 . I would subscribe to that and say yes, absolutely. Lets foam the runway a little bit. Theyre not foaming anything theyre saying, head on crash right back into the runway bill, its josh hi, josh. I understand what youre saying, but it sounds like you want us to have a recession now so that we dont have a crash later. Im not saying thats not reasonable i would say thats far away from the feds mandate. Two, like how much power do you think the fed really has when you consider how globalized the market has become . A lot of the reasons why highyield debt is yielding so low is not necessarily because of what the fed is doing with the fed funds rate, its because of Global Demand for assets that are seen as lower risk than equities so youve got foreign insurance companies, foreign banks, everyone is trying to buy anything that has any yield. Can the fed do much about that short of causing a calamity . I think yes i may be wrong i think yes. You described what i call the yield hunger games people are doing anything they can to get yield theyre driving up the price of bones to huge levels thats creating an asset bubble. The fed could say im not going to raise Interest Rates now. Ill stand firm. They could begin to sell some of the debt, the 3 3. 5 trillion of debt on their Balance Sheet that will increase supply in the market demand will not be able to meet that supply, the prices will begin to fall. Yield also go up theres all sorts of things the fed can do to signal that it wont cave to this president who just wants his reelection and is hoping to stave off the inevitable recession or collapse until after 2020 i would rather us take some of the air out of this market fact the economy im talking about the bond market take some of the air out of this bond market so we dont have a fundamental collapse in confidence this is a confidence game. Nobody rings a bell at the tom 069d m top of the market saying thanks for playing, its over when confidence deteriorates, the credit market freezes up, then it is over. You said the debt market is fine it is what about what bill is talking about . Bill is talking about something that could happen in the future im not disagreeing with what hes suggesting, but weve placed ourself in position in the United States where we are hamstrung with whats going on with the rest of the world go back to the reasoning why the Federal Reserve has to lower rates. Its because of the Global Economic weakness. So if the tariff dispute did not exist, we wouldnt be having this conversation now. Currently, as it exists, corporations, default rates are in good position theres no argument to that. I understand what bill is saying looking forward. I would just point to the Current Situation as it relates to trade the longer we endure that, we will continue to import the weakness in deflation from the rest of the world. That will put the Federal Reserve in a box bill, you have been this is not anything new for you. Youve been warning about the corporate debt market and light loans that were made, et cetera. How much of this just comes on the timing on the heels of the dudley oped which was roundly criticized for the fact that he was almost suggesting a sort of political activism by the Federal Reserve . Almost in the similar language dont dont bow to the president. They have to push back on the president is that thats note their job, is it no. Know their job look, i didnt come at this from a political point of view. I came at it from an economic point of view. A markets point of view. I hear you. Right so, to me, the writing has been on the wall for a year bill dudley came out two weeks ago. Ive been writing about this for more than a year yeah. Whether its cov light loans, highyield bonds, bbb cliff, student debt, car loans which are defaulting at rates much higher than normal, theres so many pieces of this puzzle, theyre screaming at us. The bond market. The stock market frankly is a fine place to put money in an alternative way. Highyielding stocks good companies, low debt if youre not buying back your stock at ridiculous prices, which often happens at times like this, to pay down debt is smart. We have to alleviate some of this risk building up in the bond market. To me f donshgsme, if dont, weg for the markets to freeze up the worst experiences i think have been when the credit markets freeze up, then we go into deep recession and seem wonder how well get out of it thats what were headed for if we dont take the air out of this i understand. I have kate moore here from blackrock as well. You want to weigh in here . You can address bill directly if you want bill, heres what i would say. I think that its important for the fed to continue to react to the global circumstances this is where i am really concerned that if we step away, dont take into consideration whats happening on trade or the deterioration in European Growth we will lead markets into an ugly place a more protracted and painful deterioration in the Global Economy our expectations is that the fed will continue to cut rates, this will be supported for risk access we need policymakers to put that support in markets stop panicking when policymakers start panicking in order for the markets to not fall into that panic, we need to note olicymakers are on the front foot from my view, its important to take global considerations into account. I mean, you you have the multibillion dollar bond portfolio, i dont it seems to me on the equity side of it for what its worth. Fair point. But trump is starting this she still knows what shes doing on the bond side of course, she works at blackrock. Of course she does trump started this trade war he is to inarticulate about what hes really doing from week to week we have no idea. As a result youre saying as a result of this trade war its dragging down the economy and forcing the fed to bring dont Interest Rates which is ridiculous in my point of view because it will yield to this yield hunger games, draw up the prices of debt securities, triple b cliff, you name it. At t, ge, gm, ford, all of these once Investment Grade companies at the top of the Investment Grade are now teetering on the edge of Investment Grade recession could bring it down. They have hundreds of billions of dollars of debt at t has 1 180 billion of debt ge, 100 billion. Still, its got way too much debt these are companies that once upon a time had no debt. Im writing a book about ge. Once upon a time, ge had no debt those days are long gone another provocative piece, bill as they always are appreciate it very much. Thanks for your time thank you, scott. William cohen give me a quick one. Ge is not representative of the new economy. Credit spreads a half of what they were in 2015 and 2016 while we could say that the credit markets potentially could be the problem, six months ago we were in the exact place where bill wanted to be. We were raising rates, the tenyear at 3. 25, what was the problem . The trade war. Thats what it is. Plain and simple its the trade war trade war goes away, were back on the right path. You can actually look at the onset of the tariff stuff as the top of the stock market in january of 2018, weve made nominal highs since then the onset of the trade war after he got taxes done, weve now 20 months of doing nothing in u. S. Stocks, much worse for global stocks china peaked the year before that china has been deteriorating before trade thats because their policies were much too tight. Shanghai shenzhen is having a better year than us. Peaked in 15 did thats fair the other point, well leave after this, if you if part of the strategy here by the white house is to inflict so much pain on china they have to make a deal, i mean, its like playing with fire in terms of you want to hurt them, not crush them, but theyre so important to the Global Economy that how can you hurt them badly and not have it ripple across the oceans almost everywhere he thinks that he thinks that xi cant sit him out for another 17 months . Hilarious. Of course they can dow down 355. Heres what else is coming up. Lam research shares surging 55 this year. Evercore thinks its heading higher its our call of the day plus john najarians latest trades based on moves in the option market. And the Investment Committee is ready to answer your questions at ask halfte. Im the Halftime Report with scott wapner and the traders is back in two minutes welcome back im sue herera heres your cnbc news update new images of Hurricane Dorian have been released from the International Space station. The National Hurricane center says the storm has started to move, inching northwestward after being stationary over the bahamas. Crystal klei has more on the storm. That storm dropping to a category 2, but still a powerful storm. Its running parallel to the florida coastline and staying a category 2 hurricane all the way through its run to the carolinas. By the time it gets to the carolinas, it will be very close, 15 to 30 miles outside of the area, so they could see hurricaneforce winds, storm surge and flooding rains and the International Red cross says nearly every person on the island of abaco and grand ba hhama will seed some form of assistance at least five people have been killed we believe more than 13,000 houses have been damaged or destroyed. Thats about 45 of all homes on the two islands. And again, well know with more clarity in the coming days i think the first assessment is scheduled for tomorrow you are up to date. Thats the news update for this hour scott, back to you thank you very much. Evercore isi is once again bullish on lam research. After cutting the stock to an inline rating back in the summer, in june, the firm today upgraded it to outperform. They say its too cheap and prime for a snap back. Too high quality, too cheap, upgrade to outperform. 250 is the price target. Who wants a crack at it . We both own it its up 55 year to date we know youre in the bottoming process. Dont know what inning, probably eighth or ninth, is that this quarter or next quarter, you good the guidan good but the guidance is conservative and numbers are likely to rise memory revenue is down 43 since q1 of 2018 what kept the stock up is the Balance Sheet. The strength of the Balance Sheet, is the Free Cash Flow generation near 7 the stock has risen. Yes, its a bit more expensive than it was. But it is not overly expensive youre looking at a Company Still running Gross Margins in the mid 45 range if you get that recovery in memory in 2020, this is a company that will get an added tailwind in addition to the one it has in the dynamics of its Balance Sheet. Could be 20 a share northwesternings power i they will be the last to know, like the testing equipment companies, they will be at the caboose. They will not see whats on the track in front of them until two quarters of disappointments from the oems the only lam research im doing is with mint jelly these days. All right coming up, options that will play big on the web. That was good that was good. Talking about a high flying tech stock. Jon has that trade in unusual activity first a check of the s p sectors this hour. Its defensive as you might guess. Utilities at the top 2,903. The Halftime Report is back after this do you have concerns about mild memory loss related to aging . Prevagen is the number one pharmacistrecommended memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Roku shares are up higher today by 3 . Thus the smile on jims face jim, i share your glee about this particular one. Youre one of the guys that got me into it as well as unusual activity this is a shortterm trade were talking about the 6th of september. Thats friday. Theyre trading very shortterm on this one. Theyre buying a lot of these calls. September 155s, they bought a ton of those, started buying them last week and again today ill probably be in it about three days second trade look at whats going on in the levered silver etf i talked at the top of the show about silver being up over 4 . So far today, thats the slv this is a double levered guess how much it is up . Twice. What were they buying in here . Buying the upside calls, october 36 calls in this one probably about a month im in this one quick update, we had wheaton medals at the end of last week for a final trade. This one has had a nice move up another 4 today, and up 6 since we talked about it options are up 70 thats why you trade options thank you lets do some questions now. Stephanie link for you whats up with aig good quarter, stock keeps going down was a really good quarter earnings estimates rose after the quarter. Thats a good thing. I think the new ceo is doing a good job in executing. Its the macro environment its rates its all about rates with financials until we can see a stabilization in the tenyear and the yield curve, i think the stock struggles. Jimmy, ed in california, would you be comfortable adding to marathon at these levels and how about the dividend yes, i would. The dividend i think is safe they raised it in the last year. They dont raise dividends just to cut them a year later dividend are safe, its trading below book value and they reduced share counts after buying endeavor. This is a grade compatd great c right now. Kate, health care versus the banks from raymond in arizona. I would love to say own the banks, too Sensitive Health care is a slam dunk excellent r. O. E. And we see strong Growth TrendsAsset Managers. Asset managers, always bullish. Especially blackrock thats the reason not to be bullish on any of the other Asset Managers oil prices are dropping amid the trade war. First kelly evans has a look at whats coming up well have more on the selloff as trade fears continued. The question is can the consumer continue to hold up this economy and how deep could the manufacturing recession be and well check in with a Business Owner who says the trade war is making it impossible to plan ahead, its ruining his spring plans and hes begging retailers to take a price hike and why one analyst says amazon could rally more than 45 from here. Thats ahead in rapid fire ill see you then. The Halftime Report is back after this we trust usaa more than any other company out there. They give us excellent customer service, every time. Our 18 year old was in an accident. Usaa took care of her car rental, and getting her car towed. All i had to take care of was making sure that my daughter was ok. If i met another veteran, and they were with another insurance company, i would tell them, you need to join usaa because they have better rates, and better service. 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This is hals heart. And its beating better than ever. This is what medicare from Blue Cross Blue Shield does for hal. And with easy access to quality healthcare, imagine what we can do for you. This is the benefit of blue. Welcome back to the Halftime Report. Im eric chemi crude oil getting crushed today. Down lower than 3 on a new round of u. S. china trade tariffs and the possibility of a production boost from opec lets bring in our traders anthony and jim. These factors are setting up to be a perfect storm to push crude lower like weve seen today. What do you have your eye on in this environment right now, ill add to what you just said, eric, the stronger dollar pushing crude oil lower right now. Russian production has been higher and seasonal demand, eric this is the time of the year when i look at the market and switch my mindset from buying dips and selling rallies no difference this time of the year i expect this to go down to 50 . Itch wiswitching his mindsete retest that important 50 level. Im not changing my mind. Last wednesday, thursday it tried to break out and now it didnt do it successfully and now i think 50 50 is the next level. Jim thinks anthony is catching up to the trade dont miss our live show coming up at 1 00 p. M. Eastern. Were joined by John Stoltzfus thats ahead on futuresnow. Cnbc. Com. Halftime back with your final trades next. Delivering alpha the most important investor summit nine years running. Strategy from leading off of generators, direct access to policymakers and government leaders. On september 19th see whos calling the shots now. Go to delivering alpha. Com you will come away with ideas you can put to work immediately. Special guest mike pence palks economy and trade war imct reserve your spot now at deliveringalpha. Com. Since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. Okay. Im plugged into equities trade confirmed and i have Global Access 24 7. Meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. Visit learnfuturestoday. Com to see what adding futures can do for you. Its how we bring hope to our patients like viola. Her team treated her cancer and strengthened her spirit. So viola could focus on their future. Cancer Treatment Centers of america. Appointments available now. Online now article on leaders to losers the stocks that are making major enreversals. Go to tradingnation. Cnbc. Com now. Great. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Lunch next week . Terrific. Say hi to the team. Will do. Call my office, i will. Sounds good. Alrighty. Servicenow. Works for you. So why isnt it all about you when it comes to your money . So. Whats on your mind . We are a 97yearold firm built for right now. Edward jones. Its time for investing to feel individual. Back with your final trades in just a moment steph, you have new buys to tell us about apollo is the first one ive been on blackstone for a while. These guys Just Announced a date of when they will transfer to a c corp d. R. Horton low amtrust rate Great Management Team and very diversified. Not a good economy . Mixed you cant have a recession, ill give you that. But Interest Rates here. Consumer slow down. I think the consumer is okay. Okay. Good stuff lets do final trades. Kate moore, good to have you back congrats on your new gig your new title which is too long for me to even try to say. What have you got . Still bullish on the Chinese Consumer consumer stocks have been leaving the Chinese Market year to date but if we get fiscal stimulus, it will support the consumption trend and i think thats where you want to be. Michael stores. Mik unusual call activity during our show today invitation homes, americas largest rental Single Family home provider. The economy is fundamentally changed and this company should do well. Want to give a shout out real quick. Ennis hanging out in the control room thank you for all the great basketball nights we witnessed cvs dupont. Good stuff. Does it for the Halftime Report. Thanks for watching. The exchange begins right now. Thank you, scott. Here is what is ahead. New round of tariffs kicking in. Trade worries continue and u. S. Manufacturing constracts can the consumer continue to hold up this economy well ask. And theres trouble in the energy patch stocks are falling and the debt is growing were going to look at whos most exposed in the oil space and what it means for the economy as these burdens pile up plus more delays could be coming that might keep the boeing 7 37 max grounded past the holidays and into the new year well have the latest for you. We