Welcome on this monday. Our investment committee, joe, josh, sirrat and john. Shanna is here as well, chief Investment Officer at Boston Private Wealth the market, stocks are rallying after the president says china initiated a phone call about restarting trade talks and wants to make a deal chinese disputing that today saying such highlevel calls never took place that leads us to our own eman javers in france coming off the News Conference with the president. The president was asked directly about the mixed messages, if you will, and he gave an interesting answer yeah, it was a fascinating moment here at the g7. This two by two press conference which is traditional at these things where french president macron and President Trump stood side by side and took questions from reporters and then macron said im going to go do my own press conference, President Trump you carry on and left the room the president continued a wide ranging press conference taking questions from a number of reporters. Specifically asked about this volatility and uncertainty that critics say hes injecting into the markets here in the Global Economy with his, you know, alleging that the chinese premier is an enemy of the United States on friday and then saying no, hes a great leader today. The president said ultimately i am what i am he said this is how ive negotiated through my whole career its worked for me he believes that its working now. But i think the president let us into his own thinking there in a way we havent seen him very candid moment here from the president and i think the lesson we can all take from that is that thats how the president is going to continue to operate he seems confident that it worked for him throughout his entire career and will work for him as president. Investors havent had to place their bets over the years on the president S Real Estate deals. I mean this is directly impacting the market and how much of the change in tone, if you want to call it that today, was about the president wanting to fix some of the damage that he caused to the market on friday well, we dont know thats a really good question. We clearly saw the president suggesting that there hab this phone call between the chinese side and u. S. Side we spent a number of hours this morning trying to get specifics on that. There didnt seem to be any from the white house. The president seemed to walk back from that idea that there had been a phone call and pointed to a statement by the vice premier of china liu he that wanted negotiations to continue between the United States and chooins aina and lik word calm used in the press conference the aides suggested theres a lot of lowlevel phone calls thats where we are. The president wanted to set a tone at the beginning of the day things were going well and hes continuing to do that throughout the day, whether you get into the specifics of who called who or who didnt call who. Thanks so much. Eman javers at the g7. All of you all to make sense of the tweets and the tones and the mixed messages doc, youre our shortest term trader all right. I think thats fair to say. I think so. Based on what you do for a living and how you do it. Yes, sir. You tell me how do you navigate all that i think if youre getting flushed out of the market here, scott, not that you are, but anybody who is, unfortunately there probably are neophytes, folks that havent had much experience in the markets or they wouldnt be i think most of the folks around the table are going to say you dont want to be responding to tweets or news events on a moment by moment basis there are plenty of ways that i use to protect myself from that. Whether its simulating a long position through a call option or call spreads or whether its buying some puts the market has given you phenomenal returns and phenomenal opportunities i think, unfortunately, judge, a lot of folks have probably blown themselves out of the water by either overdoing it, thinking they can buy etf dip and then when it goes up results in a 350 point slump very quickly and then fights its way back they get flushed out on the tops and bottoms, which ever it is because theyre new to shorting or hedging thats something that you dont want to be doing, especially right now. I hear you. But shannon, this seems to me to be more than youth and inexperience if you want to call it that, the way doc describes it in some cases, whereas people arent necessarily reacting to the tweets, the market is and its taking your positions in the markets wherever they may be through ups and downs, peaks and valleys, which is leading some to seau need this nonsense, i cant figure out what the next move should be because i cant figure out what next tweet, headline, tone, from the white house or otherwise is going to be well, i think what youre seeing is, you know, there is definitely some investor fatigue. I dont want to say that from a sort of Retail Investor perspective, but theres a bit of fatigue at the professional investor and adviser level as well as much as its something we try to drive home with our clients were looking at it on a longterm basis the day to day trades that are happening if you look at your portfolio you can start to lose confidence in some of the names you own and second guess. Its important if youre looking at a stock, you know, there at home or here on this panel that you make sure youre clear about what the investment thesis is and it is not based on whether you think there will be xyz resolution or this number of rate cuts this year. I think thats even more important when were seeing this like constant torn of tweets were being forced to react to. Josh, bespoke sort of sums this up well today in sort of describing the mindset of the investor and what youre forced to deal with they say theres nothing worse than being blown out of a position because of a very short drop fueled by a combative oval office missive we would suggest that tight, unmanaged stops simply cant be used in this sort of environment. Weve talked about different trading strategies using stops and otherwise. What do you make of that well, i dont know what the context is, like is that written written in a letter going out to a trader or investor because that may be the case but then for other people that wouldnt its tough to give jgeneralized pronouncements that stops are or arent working without understanding what your intense is if you cant if youve got the president on one side saying a call came from china and then china on the other side saying there was no call, if youre a professional trader and you think you have an edge on that game you are a clown so you probably dont. If you the real professional traders are not placing buy and sell orders based on rumors and innuendo in the press or whatever spokesman is saying to the press. Their positions are shaped by what youve just described in some respects. Professional traders. What is happening is that the Risk Management might be changing i think its more realistic to say that people who are managing money right now rather than pretending in their own mind they have an edge on whether or not the president is lying or china is not telling the truth, forget about all that. What theyre saying is that they want to pull back their horns somewhat and you see that in put call, you see that in percentage of stocks below their 200 day. That is whats really happening. Its not a question of do i know what the next headline is going to be. Its a question of how much am i willing to lose if i dont know and that to me is a big change from even just july. Thats the environment that were in i think its reasonable, that is how people should be thinking if theyre managing shortterm money. They should be thinking about risk more so than what am i missing out on to the upside. Fair point. Lets be clear, its a chaotic environment. It is. Totally agree. Its been since the end of july heres the risk, though. The risk is that we have a similar situation to what we had president elections, president obama, his first election attempt in 2012. If you go back to the summer of 2011, july 2011, the market fell from july 2011 until october 2011, 20 . If you took that and you extrapolated moving forward that it was time to bust up your portfolio you walked into 2012 and destroyed yourself over the coming years you have chaotic messaging going on right now in 2019 you have potentially, though, the opportunity to blow up your portfolio if you react to the volatility because on the other side of that, the president might get his cuts and you might be facing in 2020 the Federal Reserve which maybe lowers two or three more times and a resolution to the china deal i think the balance right now is going back and looking at other places besides equities. A reason why low volatility S P Companies are up 19 year to date weve been hammering home that theme. I almost feel like, sarat, traditional rules of engagement, if you will, as an investor and a trader, have been thrown out the window especially lately with, as joe says, the chaotic nature of the news or alleged news. Or headlines and tweets and, you know, developments or not developments whereas before, you take a look at facebook, for example, or an apple or a google or whatever, you say, fundamentally this Company Looks like something i want to buy today, maybe its fallen too far, maybe the earnings have just come out and analyzed it yourself and said this is stock i like for the long term. Okay then a headline could come out that completely upsets the position you just took and forces you to reassess the way you think about the market is that right . Am i it is and i think out of left field or what youre right. Also where we are as opposed to 2010 were in the later cycle now. One of the things that people continually hear is recession. You head into that cocktail a president that makes tweets that can move the market 800 points down i think what investors need to do and what were doing with our clients is assessing the risks of the client and assessing the risk of the portfolio to say, look, this is a different i think now and going forward, yes, things could be perfect and the market could run, but are you willing to take the downside which could be extend 12ds to 18 months, kind of our leading indicator of that. I dont think you get out. You assess, manage your risk. How do you manage the risk . Well like on friday if your biggest thesis on where the market can go in say the next 12 months are developments related to the trade war, and a tweet questions whether president xi is the biggest enemy of the United States, but then today from a friday to monday, the president just said he has Great Respect for the leadership of china. Allocation is one of the biggest. You tell me how to manage that. Look at your allocation and kind of a persons allocation to the market and say, do i want to be invested for five to ten years. After you do that what is my risk tolerance for a drop of 20 . Again potentially in the next 12 to 18 months that combined will then kind of deliver to you what where should i be in my range and yes, theres nothing you can do to control these but you also get to the offset, you know, things do get better and over time things get better if youre an equity investor. I think what sarat is saying, jump in on that, its important, what sarat is saying there isnt a general answer on how to manage risk for everyone of course there isnt. Just like no portfolio for everyone a lot of these question are not market questions theyre personal questions and that is the work that thousands of Investment Advisors are trying to do for individuals. The way to answer that question for an asset manager, someone who is managing a strategy, they dont know the risk tolerance of etf individual holder of their fund whether its a hedge fund or mutual fund or an sma there is a little bit of a disconnect some people are trying to find the answer in markets. Valuation, is it trend, is it internals, economics, is it rumors in the press about trade war resolutions. That is a different skill in terms of Risk Management what sarat is describing i think is a little bit more practical for the majority of people, which is am i taking too much risk personally given the new volatility in the market or given name your pick your poison i think its two parallel conversations that everyone is trying to keep track of in their head the important thing is not to the two. Cut out the noise then and go to where we are. Okay shannon, bank of America Today says the trade war is going to last indefinitely. Morgan stanley says were inching closer to a global recession. Sort of forget the headlines, take the headlines out but thats where we stand today. You have an uncertain Global Economy and trade war that has no resolution seemingly in sight. Well what do you want to buy or sell today i think its continue to look at the company if you talk about the marriage of micro and macro which what is joe and josh and sarat are talking about here, your macro and micro. If we talk about it from a micro perspective there is likely to continue to be a allocation to u. S. Multinational companies in your portfolio fy look the at companies i like its names like anthem, microsoft, visa, you know, there are names in there that i think have a competitive advantage against a backdrop where they may also decline if we have a meaningful pullback in the equity market but better positioned insulated bay dividend yield and good cash policy management for shareholders or a Sustainable Business that i think is very difficult to compete with. If your you looking where you want to put your money today take a step back and say do i see this company out lasting a threeyear sort of slower Economic Cycle and being able to take advantage of that through acquisition or new Product Innovation those are the companies you want to own. Ubs says today theyre moving underweight in equities to lower their exposure to the political uncertainty. Which equities . I think we would all agree if youre talking about companies that require 3 u. S. Growth and 2 Global Growth to make their numbers or see upgrades, its going to be really, really hard. That wont necessarily be the case for the types of companies in technology, for example, that make products that save corporations and governments money. You cant just say oh, equities although you can have a big market move in either direction you will have different results in some groups of stocks than others emerging markets is down 8 in the month of august people have suggested okay, maybe the u. S. Consumer isnt so strong maybe its time to look at the emerging markets or european equities and go there for exposure i look at this as a big ship in the middle of the ocean and where that ship is taking on water and theres a belief theres a rehe session what do people on the ship do, run to the one side of the ship. That side is u. S. Oriented and u. S. Consumer and were going to get saved there by going to that side of the boat or the whole boat is going to sink. Thats what it is. The only place left that we could be saved is in the u. S. And with the u. S. Consumer. What happens if theres no deescalation, if you want to call it that, like evercorp does with the trade war they say you cant get a higher s p meaningfully without a notable deescalation and im not talking one day of the president making a couple of comments at the g7 just now. Sure. With a dow up 224 points. Thats not much of a sort of sigh of relief rally if you will. No. All it was today, i think, scott, was it was a sign that the president wants to get back to the table whether or not china ever called the president or extended an olive branch or not. But do you agree with evercorp, unlikely the s p starts a sustainable higher without trade war deescalation. I do. I dont think anybody would deny that. What do you think of the fact that since the inauguration, the tlt has the same gain as the s p 500, even if you include dividends for the s p 500 both are up 31 isnt that shocking for a president whose selling point was how great he is going to be for the economy to have the londs bond do as well as the stock market. Since tariffs announced in january of 2018 the s p is up 2. 4 like effectively flat. Flat. And most of that is like 50 stocks. All of the other Economic Data has deteriorated. We have a full basis point move in, you know, treasuries and we have the ism dropping 8 points since then if you think about it, its like we had great gains this year, but over the course since this started weve been stymied by the sflooitariffs. What is the case for this being the quote unquote hottest economy ever have bonds performing in tandem with stocks and a president who is shrieking for rate cuts is that indicative of the strongest economy ever it would be if it werent for those exactly what scott said when he asked us the question. If it werent for these tariffs, we would be screamed, you know instead of what do you see more like 20 higher. What do you say to the people on the street and this network, frankly, that are constantly finding reasons for why the way the president is conducting this trade war makes sense and its right in the long run . Like whats your answer to that as somebody who tries to see the right side of both what would you say to that i would say embarrassing at this point personally what do you think i would say that democrat side of the ledger agrees with the president as far as what china has done does ever agree with how the president i think dealing with china. Okay. In other words, to joshs point, scott, that is the question, is, is it the right way to deal with china and get them to make for fair trade or is it the wrong way . Thus far, it has been the wrong way. It hasnt worked and the American Consumer has shoulders a lot of that burden both parties agree that china needs to be held to task. The president gave you today which eamon summed up well, unique insight sort of into his way of thinking. Its like, this is the way ive always done it im sorry, this is the way that i negotiate. It has not worked well for people other than him personally this style like its worked really well for him personally, but not necessarily people hes been in business with. What i suggested to eamon, its a different animal when youre negotiating real estate deals in the city of new york and other major cities around the world, you know, rather than trying to negotiate trade deals with a country like china and at the same time manage the stock market to a place where it represents how you think youre doing your job its a very difficult and different balance than the former negotiator in chief, as the head of the trump organization. We had a tariff in the 1930s that exacerbated the depression and the financial crisis but the difference is, we had a president who said you know what, im wrong about this and the damage was done, but it wasnt so ter thabl we had two decades of depression. Then, of course, we had a war that forced much more liquidity into the system. Thats another thing but i dont know if we have a president that will be like, we tried it this way, im going to try it a different way that doesnt seem like thats ever going to happen here. Until the tweet on that thursday afternoon about three and a half weeks ago, the market was able to endure this trade war, this trade dispute, the texts, whatever you want to call it. It always had the fed in the back pocket. The president always had Something Else to occupy his mind it seems as though right now, the problem is messaging and the problem is that the president is fixated on whats going on with china. Prior to that, there were other distractions and other things. I would say this i think thats too simplistic the market knew it had its fed in the back pocket the escalation since the day and moment of your tweet the market doubts as to whether the fed can rescue the market from the escalation of the trade war that happened on that day. No. The market i would say market started to go up after the fed. Absolutely. And then the chaos came. And then the improper messaging came and then not one tweet etf so often but five or six tweets blistering in the course of a day. Thats the wrong messaging that the market is uncomfortable with listen, the economy, where it might be, however we want to quantify it, 2 economy lets explain why its a 2 economy. We keep talking about the lifting of regulation. On this network i heard so many people in 2017 and 2018 talking about the lifting of regulation that was going to support the economy. How about talking about the regulations that have been lifted and get an understanding of that. Is that beneficial to the market is that beneficial to joe hang on. You had an environment i dont know what it is good or bad. You had an environment, its fair to say, tax cuts, and deregulation that were obviously stimulative to not only the economy, but the stock market. The stock market loved it. You took two steps forward you can arguably say you took two if not three steps back. Maybe four. By the trade war and the tariffs. It canceled out some of the the majority of the regulations the president and his the majority agenda put forward. The majority of the deregulation has been targeted toward energy, materials, and anything that can hurt the environment. A lot of that is where the hershheav lifting for deregulation has taken place. Oil is probably neck and neck, maybe the second worst performing sector since then are we saying deregulating coal miners and Oil Companies and natural gas fracking and people who want to go on to indian reservations and National Parks and rip up the ground, are we saying this has been good for them their share prices are cut in half almost everyone. Thats fine it has not helped on balance is my point. Its made things worse. You had a setup because of the Corporate Tax cuts that was pretty good. Thats a different subject. About deregulation. The whole subject the whole subject was you had an environment put forth by this president that was good for the stock market you had a tremendous tax cut, a transformational tax cut for business. The tax cut was supposed to be for the economy tariffs and chaotic hold on. No, you hold on im not finished talking just wait. Ill give you a chance, i promise. Okay then you had this chaotic atmosphere we find ourselves in now that joe aptly described earlier that seemed to cut that off at the knees your honor, did the president sell the tax cuts as being for the stock market or the economy . Who cares what he sold it as. The fact is, it was what it was. You had a massive Corporate Tax cut, the environment was great for business and environment that was then muddied and clouded by trade policy and tariffs. All true. And etf company said that. The good news we get to keep the deficit. Now we have a muddied environment you described, 100 right, and we get to keep a trillion dollar budget deficit which did not exist before. This uncertainty you have all talked about. Chaos. Thats why the stock market has gone nowhere companies today are not taking any of their cash flow to say im going to grow cap x. Put the uncertainty over that and thats what the stock market is telling you we dont know where to go until you take this uncertainty. Give us all the tax cuts and cash flow. To me it is about communication. Whether right or wrong about the stimulative effect of taxes and regulation, its like having three pitchers on the mound and you know that your ace is taxes, your second guy is the lifting of regulations and theyre winning for you. But you keep sending the third guy out talking about china trade sessions and hes getting bombed the market doesnt like that be smart stop talking about the trade tensions go negotiate them wherever you want to go to negotiate them and tell me about regulation and taxes and a better economic environment. Lets do this payroll tax cut would be a better subject than china right now. If they would pivot toward that. Part of the uncertainty considering it, not considering it, never considered it, thinking about it, never on the table. Heres what else is coming up on the Halftime Report. Step on the gas lyft gets an upgrade to buy. Shares down 20 to the month is now the time to get in . Its our call of the day plus, we want to hear from you send us your questions at cnbc. Com halftime. Or tweet us and dont miss jons latest trades based on moves in the Options Market thats coming up in unusual activity wicoHalftime Report th stt and the traders is back in two minutes. Wall street guy. Whats the hesitation . Eh, it just feels too complicated, you know . Well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. Jj, will you break it down for this gentleman . Hey, ian. You know, at Td Ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until youre comfortable. I could be up for that. Thats taking options trading from wall st. To main st. Hey guys, wanna play some pool . Eh, im not really a pool guy. Whats the hesitation . Its just complicated. Stepbystep options trading support from Td Ameritrade i planned each charted course each careful step along the byway much more much more than this i did it my way announcer verizon is americas most awarded network and the only one with the galaxy note10 5g. Right now, when you buy one, you get a galaxy note10 free. Thats verizon. Welcome back, everybody. Im sue herera your cnbc news update at this hour south korea today concluding a twoday expanded military exercise in territory that is also claimed by japan. The disputed territory is a group of islands halfway between the two countries and the drill comes amid worsening relations between japan and south korea. The first interstellar crime is thought to have been committed ben nasa astronaut anne mcclain allegedly accessed her estranged spouses bank account from aboard the International Space station. Nasa is reportedly investigating the matter. Kentucky Fried Chicken will test beyond meats plant based chicken in an atlanta restaurant tomorrow and then decide whether to roll the recipe out country wide. And with football season about to begin the Indianapolis Colts find themselves without their starting quarterback after star andrew luck announced his retirement from the nfl, shocking the sports world. The stanford graduate said he is mentally worn out from dealing with repeated injuries you are up to date thats the news update at this hour thank you appreciate that. Shares of lyft theyre higher guggenheim upgraded the stock saying the company can reach profitable than expected the firm sees almost 20 upside. Its our call of the day josh brown, the former uber investor. Yeah. What about this one yeah. I dont i still like uber. Are you shooter rt of words . No. I still like uber better because uber is more of a platform and lift is like a taxi and limousine company. Im still going to feel that way for a long time. The way they get to their numbers, 15 times ebitda in 20 what are they saying 2023 i mean thats what were doing now . This is what were investing for . 2023. Fine, great its 2019. I have other things to worry about and bills to pay right now. But youre willing to do a shortterm deal on uber. Not for this. Because if i put in a shortterm trade on lyft and then im in the trade. Yeah. I dont feel like there are as many catalysts as in uber for other things of just outside of ride sharing to happen ride sharing is not a great business i dont care how much scale you have uber has other things happening like eats that i do think have bigger potential lyft is like hey well get you a taxi. You see the bikes in chicago. Doesnt out of uber then . I have no position right now. I want to get back into uber but i dont have a reason to. Not yet you buy lyft . No. Buy this upgrade . I dont i dont think either of them are on a good path right now, scott. But of the two, yes, i agree, uber is in better shape than lyft. The amazing part is the Analyst Community thinks that theyre in good shape. Yeah. Remarkable what the Analyst Community thinks of the stock. 73 a price target for lyft, 51 for uber about 35 Analysts Covering each, 23 to 24 is the number that have buys theres only two sells the street loves how many analysts that dont work for investment banks that took part in the Public Offering have a buy rating on the stock i dont know off hand and i bet the answer is zero. Were supposed to buy it on a return to profitability. Let me ask you this, everybody sort of says, you know, youre at least a couple years off from profitability, right. Theres no guaranteed road map that says were going to be profitable in x year if youre a longer term investor, two, three, five years, nobody sees this as there are no barriers here. Positive risk reward. No barriers to entry here for me. But you have two established players. Of course anybody can start thats the problem. Youre paying a valuation now that assumes that all of the rosiest projections are a done deal like thats what youre already paying for that. So if you say to me isnt it that way with most of these types of stories . You are willing to pay a premium valuation heres the difference the ones that work, continue to surprise even to the upside while they wait to get to the financial metrics, theyre getting there with user metrics an getting there in such a way that people have more and more comfort. Lyft came out of the gates and disappointed why would they get the benefit of that doubt . Very short and sweet, uber had a really hard time at the 60 billion valuation. When they went out to the markets and basically said, please, and we all saw it because they called every one of us saying, do you want shares. When that happens, thats a really bad thing and yet, when they came public, they said wow, you know, here we are, were 100 billion company. No, theyre not. And no, theyre not 60 even though theyre hanging there right now. What they based that valuation on the last round of financing before the ipo. Yeah. I dont know why you buy a high volatility stock when were looking at an economic backdrop right now. To your point there might be a time to buy the stocks that potentially can continue to offer growth but right now if im going to put my money where my mouth is its not going to be in a stock thats not going to make me money and could potentially see a pullback in customers over the next couple years. Coming up, fang losing its bite netflix is down about 20 in the past couple months, facebook nowhere in the past year, apple, amazon, all down in that time as well i thought we were going to take a break. Were not. No time for a break. No. How about fang . We asked whether apple was going to get still love apple. Theres news today, scott, that india might be lessening some of the rules that would allow them to get deeper involved in india, which is obviously another billion three market as far as the number of potential users there. I think this one is netflix the one to hold. Netflix makes me nervous. Interesting. Not to me 130 seems like a line in the sand thats where that massive gap took place from. So if youre a managing risk in a name like netflix, youre kind of keying in on these different areas along the way that youve been in, out, its been a great trading stock but netflix has to face down disney this year i said earlier this year this would be the toughest year to hold netflix versus all of the other prior one because they never had real competition disney sells for half the valuation and has the potential to catch up in the amount of users in a threeyear span of time. Theyre coming out at 7. This is part disney and apple. Cbs a lot of competition coming towards netflix and even amazon coming towards netflix and by the way, all these fangs have been a source of funds getting market pullbacks where is the first place you go to where you have profits and over exposure clients are saying where do i want to be under exposed added to netflix a couple weeks ago to my position i had bought it, you know, on the last pullback last year. I still think that, you know, josh is probably right, its a bit of an uphill battle for the stock this year but if i look where i want to put my bets from a communications standpoint i really dont want to kind of add to my exposure to Privacy Policy issues as it relates to facebook i love content and i think content sells and what is going to sell across multiple platforms over the next couple years. I like netflix even if it has a tougher time trading in the near term. All the competition continues to be fantastic for roku, 144 today, the beneficiary on the streaming side the stock just you think thats hurting netflix . I think it is. Share price as well potential. Gets the headlines but roku saying dont forget about us for that momentum type of strategy absolutely look at r roku when i said netflix before interesting, mine it interesting as it cannot find any recovery whatsoever if disney comes out at 6. 99 a month they could get to 75 million users. Think about how quickly they could do that and how less special that will make netflix look all along the way as they hit those milestones and announce a million, now 10 million, 30 million. You know thats whats going to happen you dont know the timing but you know thats where things are trending disney at half the valuation with much better content, oceans of content, seven decades of content, and they pretty much own everything that there is and anything they dont own they can afford to buy it and thats now versus a company that has done extremely well in and of itself but is looking at an empty shelf of content that they cant buy they have to create it themselves if you go fresh money netflix or disney, you make the compelling case for disney so easy i dont understand why anyone would have trouble making that decision. On the other side. She has disney exposure. I have disney exposure as well i like content in general as well. Gold prices hitting the highest levels of the year the edge on that trade first the s p sectors at this very moment. The s p is up 27 just off the highs of the day. Communication services and technology are leading the way and the Halftime Report is back after this. When i lost my sight, my biggest fear was losing my independence. Mmm. Good. So ive spent my life developing technology to help the visually impaired. We are so good. We built a guide that uses ibm watson. To help the blind. It is already working in cities like tokyo. My dream is to help millions more people like me. Welcome back time now for etf edge. Check out golds wild ride the yellen metal seen a huge rally since trade uncertainty started up since may its rallying six year high now up 19 for the year. Gold mining stocks have had a bigger rally up 42 . How do investors play this precious metal lets dig deeper with andrew runs the etf business at wallach capital, steve at Stewart Frankel a regular here you run the etf business over there. Are clients asking now to get into gold etfs and whats the rationale . Why are they telling you i think the rationale theyre looking for a place to hide from the volatility you look at vix related products and etfs over 15 moves up and down over 10 give or take in a three month period gold none. Its a place to still have the money to work, making assets, a potential to go higher and safer haven. Never underestimate the effect that the Central Banks can have on gold and on bitcoin. When you have these risk on moments where you see the Central Banks are devaluing everything, people rush back into gold and thats what youre seeing now. Dollar, of course, influential here dollar higher is not necessarily good since gold dont seem to be working to your point. What is that . The basket of the Global Concerns versus the basket of people worrying about governmental intervention. Yeah. Thats what youre seeing. The jury is still in on the bitcoin. People are staying away from that and gold is the alternative. There used to be a correlation between gold and bitcoin and now they both rally for the same things. Andrew, gold versus gold stocks we always get into this. Gold stocks have the differentiator, theyre stocks and sometimes move with the markets and independently gold stocks were horrible performers for ages and ages and this year theyre outperforming. How does an investor look at gold stocks versus owning gold directly the beauty of an etf, you follow the leaders, paulson one of the first hedge funds to use gld, youre holding gold, actual gold in a vault thats trabds and you dont want to have futures and rolling in those costs and with the stocks i like the gdf. Gdx. Gdx has always out performed up and down. Weve seen the out performance sometimes three to one, now see it as two to one but theyre masters of their destiny. Then a premium for m a too on the way up at least. Tough call to make. There is ways to own gold in gold vaults, different kinds of golds, gtf, gld. A smaller one that charges less bar thats attracting assets any difference no difference at all except half the cost from granite shares again for an Investor Trading here etf day its a penny widespread, sometimes two cents at the most. You save 17 basis points. 17 basis points. For owning the same thing. As the alternative of having a vault in your house. Is there any risk one versus the other . No. Still backed by the gold it youre doing an institution doing hundreds of millions at a time gld is more liquid. Thanks very much for joining me for more etf edge dont go anywhere our live show at 1 00 p. M. , deeper moot gold flowses and a man using for retirement dont go away. Were back on the Halftime Report. Traders answering your questions. Joe from mike in michigan. Mike asks, ford stock sell or hold for the long term i would not sell it here. Listen, ive got ford wrong in july thought it was breaking out above 10. 50, after earnings its fallen back about 13 . It was a bad quarter and the surprise on the quarter was the weakness in the north American Business that was the trouble most anticipated that the turmoil related to china and the european weakness would be the struggle for ford. Where it sits at 8. 85 not selling it here. If you have it i would hold it here and hope for the turnaround in the north American Business. Joe in lakeville would you buy amc stock given all the summer blockbuster hits . Im in the really big on thematic investing and if irp theres hits etf summer. Im not sure this summer is a head bigger or smaller than last year or the year before. That would not be the reason i would buy it its a very, very tough chart. This was 28 stock now 11. Its been below 10 goes back below 10 i just dont see the hurry here. Technically its not really set up to do anything from my perspective. Sarat from matt, what do you do with American Airlines . I would i mean at these levels the stock has more downside if the market pulls back and move it over to delta we like delta better Balance Sheet much better. Shannon, anthem and United Health from tom in san diego what do you think of both . Well, i think youre seeing pressure on managed care right now. Were going to be looking at Medicare Part d coming up in congress this year, but we like both anthem and United Health. Anthem because theres turnaround opportunities there and United Health because theyre vertically integrated and a lot of control over their contracts. If you want to play the health care space, which is typically more defensive, these are good names to do it in. Doc for you from zach in new york, slv or gld. Slv like them both though. As a hedge or just because theyre working right now . Both. As a hedge really . I do. Not a 100 hedge, josh, but i do think that these are where people go when they get nervous about all kinds of things. From currency to tweets and so forth, trade wars. So some people go to bitcoin for that same sort of reason i think silver slv and then gld. Theyre both up i think gold up 19 over the last three months, scott. Silver up 23 . Okay. Coming up, speaking of the doctor, options bulls are making bets in material and health care today. Two new trades for you coming up next first, kelly has a look at whats coming up on the exchange. Hi, everybody the president says china wants to make a deal and investors are buying it for now. Were going to talk about what that means for fed rate cuts are they less likely is the fed more behind the curve . Well get into that. A judge in oklahoma is about to make a landmark ruling on whether Johnson Johnson will be held responsible for that states opioid epidemic. Whats at stake both for j j and the entire Pharma Industry on this ruling. Do you recognize that brand . The Company Behind it is leaving its name off intentionally thats ahead in rapid fire well see you then the Halftime Report is back after this we trust usaa more than any other company out there. They give us excellent customer service, every time. Our 18 year old was in an accident. Usaa took care of her car rental, and getting her car towed. All i had to take care of was making sure that my daughter was ok. If i met another veteran, and they were with another insurance company, i would tell them, you need to join usaa because they have better rates, and better service. Were the gomez family. Were the rivera family. Were the kirby family, and we are usaa members for life. Get your Auto Insurance quote today. This is hals heart. Its been broken. And put back together. This is also hals heart. And this is hals relief, knowing hes covered. This is hals heart. And its beating better than ever. This is what medicare from Blue Cross Blue Shield does for hal. And with easy access to quality healthcare, imagine what we can do for you. This is the benefit of blue. On a scale of one to five . One to five . Its more like five million. Theres everything from happy to extremely happy. Theres also angry. Im really angry clive actually, really angry. Thank you. But what if your business could understand what your customers are feeling. And then do something about it. Turn problems into opportunities. Thanks drone. Customers into fanatics change the whole experience. Alright who wants to go again . I do i do i have a really good feeling about this. Were back hitting its lowest level since april of 2016. Options traders are looking for a rally. John will tell us about that five years, its ugly. It is what made that . What theyre betting on, scott, about 9. 5 or higher within the next 30 days because thats the strike they were buying as the stock, as you say, hit 2016 lows that we havent seen since 2016. But they took a cheap shot they bought an option. They paid about 20 cents for these and bought a lot really quick. About 5,000 of them and now you see it pushing up towards 8,000 and 9,000. Im in these and ill be in them two to three weeks second trade, take a look at this one not one we talk about a lot, but moving right now that is fibrogen they have some drugs in the pipeline people are betting some of those might be coming to the market faster and for that reason, scott, take a look at this 3, oops, stocks up 3 theyre buying the jan 45 now. Theyre giving themselves enough time to be right i bought these calls and really like the look to the break to the upside and i think it continues. Ill be in it probably two to three months good stuff. Worst stock i have seen in my life ugly. Icit 30year chart and the same pre was in 1995. We have to run. Final trade straight ahead were back many of you will recognize the name mark schoenebaum. He brought us his insights on the health care space. One of the most respected analysts in the industry we learned over the weekend that mark passed away at the age of 46 were thinking of his family today as we remember mark and all of the help he gave investors to better understand the space in which he covered. Well be right back. Its show of strength. Or its sign of intelligence . In crossing harsh terrain. Or breaking new ground . This is the time to get an exceptional offer on the mercedes of your midsummer dreams at the mercedesbenz summer event, going on now. Lease the gla 250 suv for just 329 a month with credit toward your first months payment at the mercedesbenz summer event. Mercedesbenz. The best or nothing. [spokesman] if youve tried colleg group cheering shed, snhu lets you transfer up to 90 credits toward you bachelors degree. [woman] it doesnt matter how old you are, you can do it, you can finish. [spokesman] finish your degree at snhu. Edu thats what happens in golf nothiand in life. Ily. Im very fortunate i can lean on people, and that for me is what teamwork is all about. You cant do everything yourself. You need someone to guide you and help you make those tough decisions, thats Morgan Stanley. Theyre industry leaders, but the most important thing is they want to do it the right way. Im really excited to be part of the Morgan Stanley team. Im justin rose. We are Morgan Stanley. About 40 seconds now give me your final trade Precious Metals silver and gold cisco. United health care defensive play dont buy any Industrial Metals okay. Cintas. Food distribution i think these are all good just bought cisco you just bought it we did. The yummy cisco right now, take a look at the markets. Dow is up 256. That does it for us the exchange begins right now thank you, scott. Hi, everybody. Here is what is ahead from a day of escalation to a day of calm President Trump says china wants to make a deal and the two countries are having conversations and phone calls. Wh does that make fed rate cuts less likely now . The 17 million verdict the looming decision in the opiod case could mean for the company and the large number of cases now waiting in the wings hong kong protests are beginning to take their toll on the financial status thats all ahead
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