Results. We begin with a news alert on big tech lets get straight to seema mody with all the details. Attorney generals are reportedly moving forward with an antitrust probe on big tech that according to the wall street journal, we just have here attorney general from mississippi saying continues to be concerned with the aggregation of data in the hands of a few and im always watchful of any monopoly. As attorney generals we need to evaluate and address specific conduct utilizing our existing antitrust and Consumer Protection laws. One way we are doing this is a Multistate Working Group called the Tech Industry working group. Melissa, we know big tech has been under fire, under scrutiny over privacy and regulations this further moves that forward. Our continuation of a trend, i should say based on this report from the wall street journal. That again the attorney generals are moving forward with an antitrust probe. As we get more, well bring it to you seema mody back at headquarters the pressures coming from all sides. Federal investigations possibly, state investigations possibly. Guy, is this truly going to be an overhang for technology though weve got this it seems like a month or so ago when we talked about, look, its basically three stocks in the cross hairs. You want to throw in apple for good measure, thats fine. Its facebook, alphabet, and its amazon, and the market didnt care a month ago. Im not certain why its going to care now. It should but the market looks past it. Although i think the headline is significa significant, i think the markets going to give them a pass once again. Ill say this, the market did care for a little bit in early june when the doj had facebook in their you know, in their sights facebook traded down to 150 it was brief, but there was a bit of a panic i think whats really important is that the states are likely to stick around here. The ftc and the doj, theyll be ultimately some big settlements. I think the issue here is it adds a level of cost and complexitie complexities the working group is 13. It could get much bigger is it an overhang . Not nearterm. Ultimately as we get into the balance of 2019 and 2020 the Election Year is really important. One other point about facebook, google, their Gross Margins have been going down. It doesnt give them the leeway to do some of the things they want to do with their cash piles, make acquisitions and other stuff. Look, i have to agree, and google went in that june moment really for the company that was already, you know, reeling from the First Quarter earnings, there was some negative around the stock. You dropped this on it, it went from 1130 almost down to a thousand, ill leave the technicals for somebody else the irony here is and i think weve talked about this if you broke up these companies, some of the parts, facebook and google for sure trade cheap. Theres no question about it, and theres no question about it that you bring in the state ags as opposed to just a federal probe or a federal push of some kind and you certainly raise the stakes, no question about it Election Year, i think its significant. Again, i think the state ags need to be on record having said theyre concerned about this. The overlay of the market volatility, and you wonder is this going to be the thing that actually is the pressure maybe a moment in time right now is different from the moment in time in june when it was first revealed that all these agents were actually looking at these tech stocks. I think were getting closer to the end of the year youre starting to see Mutual Fund Year Ends coming up in october. People are in that part of the year where theyre thinking of taking some profits on things that have made big gains this tech sector regulation issue, it is just not going to go away. Yes, the street has been somewhat unworried about this, every time we get one of these bits of pieces of news, the worries pile on a little more. I think this is just the beginning. And her point is important because i think theres two components of the risk here. One is a you know, a cost of Regulatory Environment that has changed, and we still dont know where thats going the other is clearly a cost on data and protecting data thats independent of what the feds do or the states do this is hackers. This is the privacy issue. This is actually treating their number one product, your data with safety and the cost that facebooks heres the real irony, users dont care theyve dem vonstrated that we havent seen users leave these platforms. We havent seen advertisers leave these platforms. Its a really interesting thing. It seems to be bipartisan, and to loris point its going to g on for a while theres no simple resolution. I dont want to discount what dans saying facebook went from 180 to 163 on june 3rd and spent the next month going back to 210 or so, so yes, it cared for that brief moment in time, but with that said not all that much i do think this is an important headline without question. I thought the headline a couple of months ago was important. At a certain point, the market cares. Were going to talk about things the market should really care about. That to me is the big overhang this just adds one more log to the fire. I would just ask yourself, i mean, melissa you mentioned it earlier. Theres pressure coming from both sides of the political aisle. Why do these politicians feel comfortable going after these companies . There have been Public Opinion polls showing these are not the most Popular Companies people are still using the services the politicians feel like they have a target they can go after and get away with. I think this is going to take a while to unfold. And so what point do you start thinking, the politician will still go through even if users still go its got to catch up at some point, no . None of us you guys just go through your user agreement, you click on it. You move on. We dont care. Thats kind of the point theres no damages on the consumers front right now i think thats the really big issue. Is the Market Impact of all of this. If you think about where weve been since either the may tweet, may 3rd, whatever that weekend was that we went into after a round of markets been struggling and since that time actually, in august weve had four move at 4 , plus or minus. Mega cap has been a place to run to, its been a place of safety. Google in their Second Quarter numbers gave you a little more insight into the areas you were concerned about and their gro margins. The market doesnt need this right now. That leads me to my next question, prior to earnings season everyone said alphabet would be the most vulnerable when it comes to antitrust regulatory scrutiny. And here we are, we are off the erpgs report it was a Solid Earnings report it rerated shares of alphabet. Is that concern, the regulatory concern less because you have more visibility into their business its probably the best Quarterly Report in the last six to eight quarters that theyve been reporting i think it took a lot of people by surprise. I only say that because of the significance of the move to the upside yes, is alphabet in the cross hairs . Without question lori talks about politicians ill narrow it down. President trump specifically went after alphabet today. Is the downside less . I dont know the answer to that. Heres an issue were not even talking about, apple, google and amazon did not confirm. Thisser all do they are all down about 10 from the all time highs the overhang here in north america, we know europe is leading the charge on regulatory issues those three companies are not meaningfully in china. What is this whole trade war about but access to chinese markets. They will not be there for a very long time when you think about this monkeying around with huawei theyre not going to be in a china for a long time, havent you said on this desk theyre not even there now its not even you think about growth to justify these multiples at a certain point. If you wanted china as the next leg of growth, you may not get it for a while i dont want to go through. What did we see from huawei last week . They announced an operating system to run on android phones, you know this is something that this is all the whole china 2025. They want they dont want to be reliant on us anymore, and they want to regulate what they want to regulate, and they want to sensor what they want to censor weve seen these before i think this is what guy is saying that would be my final comment im concerned about it, but thats not going to change the trajectory tomorrow. Stocks surging today as bond yields bounce off their lows if you watched the show last week youll remember our next guest said we are hardly out of the woods when it comes to the rate shock. You could probably make the case that were probably closer to a yield glow around the rest of the world in the u. S. It looks like its early innings for rates to fall because were so far behind everybody else. Lets welcome back jim bianco jim, great to see you again. Thanks for having me. Theyre basically telling us, theyre back to practically where they were before nothing to worry about bonds also, jim, so what gives well, bonds did bounce back, but theyre lower than they were last monday when they made a new alltime low prior to last monday the all time low was 210 were at 209 right now they had a great rally over the last ten days or so. They fell 60 basis points. Youve got to go back seven years to find the last time they had a rally that big, and this is one of five or six rallies of the last 30 years of this size so im not surprised that theyre kind of bouncing around. I still think the path to least resistance for bond yields is lower unless jay powell comes out and opens the door for 50 basis point cut at the september meeting. If he does that, possibly we could have a low in bonds, but short of that, if he comes out and hes not dovish enough, we could have another plunge in yield. Thats what the markets trying to tell us right now. What kind of plunge are you predicting, and is it the same sort of degree of selloff in yields that you had predicted before or does the bounceback change your view of the bond market and where its headed the bounceback doesnt change my view. Lets keep in mind that Interest Rates is a relative game the rest of the world matters. 60 of sovereign bonds or Treasury Bonds around the world are negative yields. Theres only two Interest Rates that have a 2 or higher yield left in the world. The fed funds rate and the u. S. 30year bond, and those rates are going to have to keep coming down with the rest of the world. I could see them going well down, you know, the funds rate should probably go down to 1. 5 by fall. Unless the fed gets very aggressive and they cut 50 basis points thats the game changer. Short of that, i think were going to 175 on the 30year bond. Jim, bianco we had a little bit of a static issue. Do you agree, 50 basis points is the only thing thats going to cause the bottom in yields its interesting he says that i would say the fed has no control over yields at this point. I dont think they do. I dont think any of these Central Banks do although they think they do. In terms of what jim said, 25 of all sovereign bonds have negative yields. Thats not bullish in my world obviously the markets looking past, the last four days in the equity market is very good the problems that got us in market turmoil last week didnt go away today. I agree with that when we look at it from an equity perspective, we dont think risk is off the table at this point in time it would not surprise us to see the s p 500 approach 2,700 where you can finally breathe a true sigh of relief. Im curious because we have so many strategists to say lower yields are great because it provides you a cushion for valuation. Yeah. And at some point we crossed that line. I think weve already crossed that line. We do generally see that when rates are coming down that pe multiples go up. Ges what, when we hit the 30, 25ish top in s p, we did all the multiple expansion we deserve to do in this cycle you have to remember the market has been pricing in lower rates and cuts from the fed ever since january. We kind of got into that easing rally mode, and unless youre in a qe environment, the multiple expansion weve already seen is as good as what we tend to see when the fed is easing i think its done. I think we had a case, folks where good news actually could be good news again were going to get fed minutes on wednesday i dont think those fed minutes are going to be as dovish as people want them to be a Voting Member of the fed basically made it sound like he doesnt want it to go. He doesnt like the ramifications. Hes been that way for a while. Its interesting to hear the fed say this the fact that we went from bad news is good news to a point where i actually think that good news is good news or bad news is bad news, i hear that and i think actually based upon what you heard the administration, whether it was larry kudlow, all the weekend press, the retail sales last week, if the consumer is so strong, why are we in such a bad place . I kind of feel the same way. The timing seems horrible for the politicians to be making this case for such a dovish stance right now you think about it, look whats going on look at the dollar its above 98. You see obviously bonds. Thats central bank differentials by the way, the same thing our guest was talking about. Understood and i just think if you look at our treasuries, our dollar, our stock market, were showing tremendous relative strength to Everything Else in the world. I think whats important about those two big 800 down days in the dow the last couple of weeks, risk happens fast, whatever the excuse was, higher tariffs or a yield curve inversion, they sent them down 3. 5 sharply if q42018 taught us anything, days like that, the more frequently they happen, they can snowball make no mistake about it, that was a crash people a lot of people made a lot of mistakes at the highs of september and october, and the lows of december, and thats how you get offsides to me, i think whatevers going on here, no one has answers. Youre the only strategist here. We just dont know how this ends it cant be good when you have 25 of sovereign yield around the world. Im not owning that. You have our white house pressuring for a 1 drop in the check out he actually meant to say that. Im not owning that. Im too big to be anything jockey, so. Very true were going to hear a lot from the fed this week. Cnbc will have coverage all week long from the fed summit coming up, well give you the highlights of the companys big quarter, and the charts are pointing to major trouble across the pond one top technician will break down what that means for your wene re live from times square in new york city. Much more fast money right after this moving is hard. No kidding. But moving your internet and tv . Thats easy. Easy . easy . Easy. Because now xfinity lets you transfer your Service Online in just about a minute with a few simple steps. Really . Really. That was easy. Yup. Plus, with twohour appointment windows, its all on your schedule. Awesome. Now all you have to do is move. That thing. [ sigh ] introducing an easier way to move with xfinity. Its just another way were working to make your life simple, easy, awesome. Go to xfinity. Com moving to get started. Weve got a huge interview coming your way tomorrow on cnbc, the recent volatility. Be sure to catch that interview tomorrow morning on squawk box. Baidu is jumping higher after hours. Lets get to deirdre bosa in San Francisco with the details. Theyre roaring back from todays session and again in the after hours, now, they were down about 40 yeartodate, massively underperforming their peers. The latest results telling investors that things are not that bad there were worries over its core advertising business, the slowing chinese economy. We saw another big chinese tech name baidu, it was slow to capture mobile growth facing this growing competition. Its been investing heavily in new areas for its next phase of growth its Smart Speaker sales now third globally behind amazon and google cofounder and ceo said in this quarters release that its operating system is in more than 400 million devices. Baidu has a long way to go to catch up with its chinese internet peers alibaba reported last week growing revenue 42 and 23 yearoveryear respectively. Baidu its revenue rose 1 . Amid a slowing economy, and worries of trade tensions. On baidus calls analysts will be listening for any commentary on the macro environment dewhere do you stand on baid . Its really cheap if you look on a trailing 12month, i do it for this company because this company in the last 12 months has had so much thrown at it. Its 12 times trailing, and therefore at least gives you some perspective what the street has done to expectations they beat revenues slightly, video streaming iq is a major service. I would say the mega cap chinese tech names are very interesting. Watch alibaba around 180 its up almost 20 in the last ten sessions alone, and youre starting to see some of these names. Baidu is more akin to an alphabet and an alibaba are more akin to an amazon lets say. What would you rather be in . Oh. Would you rather would you rather. I slipped that right in, just like you slipped your stuff in, dan. Would you rather be more exposed to the Chinese Consumer directly or to something more driven by advertising . I think the Chinese Consumer directly for the reason i think the chinese have a lot of monetary and fiscal policy, you know, easing to do if they really get into a jam here, so to me tencent is down 10 from its recent highs. Alibaba is down, baidu has gotten destroyed id rather go for the gamers and ecommerce players. I mean, valuation in baidu, its absolutely cheap. This stock is down 60 , from june of 2018 thats a pretty significant drop, and if you go back and look over the last year, year and a half or so, every rally of this magnitude has been met with further selling, and then you have further new lows. So initiated with 130 price target does it get there . Im not sure i think you take this as an opportunity to take some money off the table yet again. Is there value in chinese equities at this point i dont know about chinese equities i would say i think the key issue here are you ready to pound the table on trade war plays . Im not at this point. I dont think you can look at valuation as the guide i think youve got to look at the news flow, how you think the Economic Data is going to trend. Whats happening with the politics of this trade war, i just dont see that getting resolved anytime soon. When i look at these players generally, i worry about short term relief. This is my point, i just think people have domestic. Yeah, openly absolutely there are trade war proxies, i just think theyve been misinterpreted, and again, as weve said on this desk tonight another thing that china did over the weekend that helped equities to talk about what they could do with monetary or fiscal policy theyve recrafted their prime lending rate it gives them a lot of flexibility to do what they want they are going to stimulate across the board, and i think it will help these companies. Up next, the Great American consumer we get a flood of retail results. Will the u. S. Shopper stand up to the test . Well break down the key names that need to be on your radar. Is trouble brewing abroad. The chart master has one chart that is so bad he says its good hell break down what he is seeing when fast money returns people know aflac. Aflac but not when to use it. Do i use aflac when the kids get slime in the plumbing . No. Thats home owners insurance. Slime in my motorcycle. No. Thats motorcycle insurance. Slime everywhere . Ughhh nooo, theres no insurance for that. Do they help when i have bills Health Insurance doesnt cover . Yeah thats it aflac gross guys. Get help with expenses Health Insurance doesnt cover. Get to know us at aflac. Com welcome back to fast money wall street wracpping up a stron day of gains theres plenty of truouble brewing across the atlantic. Treasury yields are negative, now europes biggest economy could be forced into fiscal stimulus measures to stave off a recession. Even though things are looking grim, the chart master says there is one european giant that looks so bad its good carter worth is over at the plaza. What are you seeing . First lets do a little background work. Heres the stock equivalent to our s p 500. What ive done is adjusted for inflation to show how darn bad things are germany leading here what we know is the peak in 2000, the dot com peak, not a lot of dot com in europe, were still down 37 youd have to go up 8 for five years just to recoup whats been lost in inflation on an adjusted basis. Forget about inflation, heres the actual chart what has happened is we keep failing at this level. Now, of course the bull would say ultimately you break out thats not my take onit here. I think were stuck or indeed theres another big down leg now, another way to look at it, heres that same stock 600 chart, the index heres its relative performance to the s p this is the real tragedy its like a permanent short. Were making new alltime lows every day, every hour, every week, and theres not a lot that can fix that frankly it has to do with the waiting in technology among other things, basically a structural problem now, have a look at the following tenyear chart this is the fourth largest constituent in the dax industrials 30 stocks they are dead even, 115 over the past decade now zero in more closely, and take a look at this undershoot meaning correlated and then a literal collapse, right, in siemens. Siemens is basically down 25 from its peak in 2017. I think this seems a little overdone and the play here is to play for a bounce. So bad its good here is the chart, so many ways you could draw it. You could draw it as well, you could draw it as a big top, but either way i think one way you can dra w it thats opticall clear is we worked into a wedge and gapped into a plunge my guess is were going to throw back a little bit, you can get a cyclical bounce or a trade and its so bad its good. Come on over chart master jon will bring the chair in. I like the music, so bad its good come on down, you know. The price is right in terms of the stoxx 600. Its mostly banks. When you have strategists saying you know what, its time to go into europe because values are so beaten down if you think about it, tech is only 5, 6 . Its structurally tied to big Zombie Energy companies, big zombie banks and heavy industrials like siemens and so forth. The issue is is it demographics . What we know now is that the german yields are now below where japanese yields are and lower than japanese have ever been its a deflationary slump that probably theres no out to it. The germantina . Is that your point they have to go into equities and thats the case . Is that part of the i realize youre not making a fundamental call per se. We know that quantitative easing was invented in japan they own a lot of stock. Are they going to start doing that more aggressively in Europe Siemens has virtually collapsed. Carter, just focusing on the financials because you just brought up Japanese Equities and you brought up european equities and banks in particular. Theyre both carrying a 30year low, the euro stock bank index also 30year lows. What does that mean for our bank actually, they are trading, euro zone banks are trading at half of book value when someone goes oh, this bank is cheap, oh, maybe not. Thats what value traps are all about. Except for the fact youve also talked about it continues to make new lows against the s p. On a relative basis, emerging markets are making new lows every day. So i think saying that u. S. Banks are like european banks, unless we go to negative Interest Rates is totally off the mark its not a farfetched bet. Are you just saying i dont know. Youre saying that europeanba banks are a mess we know that any bank in this environment of negative Interest Rates is a me mess. Youve been traded down to book value u. S. Bank corp. S, some of the big ones are trading at one and a half, the ones that are considered less risky. Valuation is a very gray subject. Im curious, and quickly ill go to you on this, in terms of Deutsche Bank signaling something more sinister and systemic for the european economy, so can you could you get on board being long on siemens. Or trade, i think carters talking about trade. At a certain point if hes right hell come back on and say heres where you saw the double. Thats crater lingo. Deutsche bank, theres a reason why citi bank is currently trading at a discount to tangible book. In my opinion its because they have european exposure, and to think that Deutsche Bank does not pose some systemic risk. I dont know that they do, but i certainly dont know they dont. I would just say the u. S. Banks what we heard in this last reporting season is that you put yield considerations aside, if you put these general macro recession fears aside, everything sounds pretty good. Putting a lot aside though. Was a huge issue. If we suddenly get ourselves into a situation where okay, the feds done its job they havent waited too long all the Economic Data is on the up trend, these guys are poised to do some strong outperformance it does feel like on the downside theyve been so derisk derisked. Bank of England Governor Mark carney will be joining us exclusively this friday at 5 30 a. M. Eastern time. One of the big name guests coming your way from the fed summit in jackson hole, wyoming, weve got full coverage all week long on cnbc. Plus, if a bird is a plane, nope, it is the american um, uld they be the key to the rally our traders will weigh in ahead of a big earnings week for retailers. Fast money is back right after this prebetter life. Hier brai. [spokesman] if youve tried colleg group cheering shed, snhu lets you transfer up to 90 credits toward you bachelors degree. [woman] it doesnt matter how old you are, you can do it, you can finish. [spokesman] finish your degree at snhu. Edu welcome back to fast money. All day long weve been digging in on the Great American consumer this week they get put to the test as a number of big retailers report results well get earnings from home depot, nordstrom, foot locker. We thought this would be the perfect time to play a little thats our shop it or trdrop it. Shop it meaning you would buy the name, drop it meaning you would sell the name. Lori is up first i know its a lot of pressure since its the first time youre playing this game. Retail xrp around 8 this month. Do you shop it or drop it . Were sellers of the Retail Stocks at this point. So youre dropping it. Well done well done why is that so look, i think these stocks are on the current battlefield on the trade war, and we think thats going to take some time to play out, number one. Number two, i think theyre just not that cheap if you look at large cap retail relative to the s p, theyre kind of neutral to slightly expensive on our models. We dont think theres a lot of deep value to begin with lastly, if you want to play the strength of the american consumer, hes got a great alternative in consumer staples. Not too expensive not too expensive if you look at cash flow, they actually look pretty cheap. Lets get into some of the individual names now home depot reporting before the bell tomorrow, dan shopping it or dropping it lets shop it this is why, i have an easy one here youre not going to have an opportunity. The options is implying about an 8 move in either direction. When you look at the chart, 200 seems to be really good. That is the up trend thats where it should get good support. The upside is also about 215 which is where the stock topped out last month i suspect the stock is in the range. I think they probably put up a decent quarter and guidance is good enough. I think you can probably play it for a move back to the highs between this little hiatus that we have in the trade talks, if the guidance and the results are good tomorrow morning. So you have a little bit of a, you know, a little opportunity here builders or depot ooh, i like that. Its a would you rather within shop it or drop it. A lot of game. I would take home depot over the homebuilders home depot it continues to grow into its valuation, 19 times earnings isnt ridiculously expensive for these guys im in the dan mason camp, i shop it. Lets move on to target, tim, shop it or drop it im going to drop it. I think theres too much pressure on these guys i think targets had a great run. Its kind of a victim of its own success. A little late on my drop it. Yeah, my red bag is getting kicked to the curb i think if you look at the comps, theyre also becoming more difficult for this company. If you look at whats going on in terms of tariffs, the labor component of their business. I think theres a margin issue, and i think theres way too much store space in the big box retailers for them to not have margin degradation. Talk about the cross hairs of the tariffs. Yeah. Skpi agree, and i think if youre looking at walmarts results last week and you want to extrapolate to target these are two different companies. Walmart gets half of its sales from groceries target looks a lot more like one of these atrocious Department Stores to me i think if the trade war stuff does come back, thats where target will be felt. Atrocious it looks more and more i like that. Yeah. I think the valuation suggests i might be the lone wolf on this desk and would say shop it just because. Just because, all right, you get your own here. I like this game. Nordstrom reporting lay they are week, shop it or drop it. Tenyear low in order strom over the last week or so all the problems theyve been facing everything weve been talking about for months its been compelling for the last three years the story to me is a huge shortage if they say anything remotely close to being good for in or r nordstr nordstroms rack, i think the stock goes up. Weve seen it before also the chance of maybe taking themselves private. Very delayed. Delayed got a delayed bag you really have to listen ask then this reinforces all those reasons make me shop it. Then they were going to drop the graphic. But they jumped me forget it now. They had their chance. Drop it again no. Its not fun now. Lets do one more lets give it another go t. J. Maxx up 16 this year. I dont know why i get the gong, i guess bonus round. Dan what do you say . This stock has been really volatile its down about 12. 5 over recent highs structurally they have very different issues than lets say your nordstrom that you were shopping you can also shop this one after the print here results fine this thing should hold up better than a lot of its discretionary brethr brethren. Were getting headlines on brexit, lyft shas aumreon bpy ride Office Traders are betting on bigger moves ahead well break down the action. Dont go anywhere. Much more fast money right after this when volatility rules the market, how do you protect your portfol portfolio. Weve had a news alert coming out of the white house. Lets get to eamon javers at the white house. White house officials now pouring some cold water on that trial balloon we saw floated earlier this afternoon in the Washington Post about the possibility of a payroll tax cut being worked on by the Trump Administration a white house official issuing this statement saying as larry kudlow said yesterday more tax cuts for the American People are certainly on the table, but cutting payroll taxes is not something under consideration at this time. So the trial balloons go up, this one is definitely going down you note that phrasing there, not something under consideration at this time that always leaves the door open for coming back to this idea it seems pretty dead for now, though thank you, eamon javers at the white house. Weve actually got some more news on General Electric lets get to seema mody at headquarters with this one. And melissa, it involves the Kansas Insurance department. State insurance regulator issuesing a issuing a statement that the report is fairly simplistic in nature and doesnt appear to incorporate reserve explanations that were considered during the most recent financial examination, and the annual Analysis Review of the confidential memorandum at december 31st of 2018 this is notable because they used state insurance records from a number of states including kansas to inform his report and analysis. Shares of ge are flat after hours, but worth noting lows back on thursday. Thank you, seema. What do you make of this i think the news coming from an insurance regulator is reassuring i dont look, the big issue here is what happens in the second half to their power business does that lead to minus 1 billion or minus 5 billion thats the story here, getting their Aviation Business up is something i would still be concerned about. While i cant know what the accounting irregularities may have been over the last ten years, i can tell you about the core business investors are focused on i think the turn around that larry culp and coare undergoing, especially in getting profitable Going Forward i think is happening. I do think theres been a surprise, and i think thats a pretty big delta on where we could be i think its closer to 1 negative. Where did you stand on where this turn around is . Early youre probably you know, nine months into a turn around, its probably going to take two years, two and a half years. Tim would probably agree that the question is do you give them the benefit of the doubt in month nine, or do you wait it out . I think he would also admit that the stock has a chance to go lower as well. I think it does. I think culps the right guy i think he will do it the right way. He comes from good stock this doesnt change overnight, especially if the markets about to sort of have an event i think ge goes lower before it goes higher. I dont know if you think if industrials or ge specifically falls into this category, but certainly theyre buffeted by things like a stronger dollar. Ill tell you what we are looking at within the industrial space is actually the machinery stock, which we think are at the epicenter of the trade wars. We have noticed that they are sort of in the sweet spot of ownership where theyve got good fundamental endorsement. Theyre not crowded yet. They have room to move up. Valuations look steep. Thats where were trying to steer people in industrials if they can be longterm. Up next, ipo lock up period officially ending today. That starts some big activity in the Options Market well break down all the action, plus take a look at our cramer rks big rally and where the maetare heading next, that is coming up on mad money at the top of the hour. We are live at times square, much more fast money straight ahead. Ld ai without bias . How do we bake security into everything we do . We need tech that helps people understand each other. That understands my business. Weve got some work to do. And we need your help. We need your support. Lets expect more from technology. Lets put smart to work. And went on to trade as high as 73 and as low as 13 a share. So guys, put simply, this may be obvious, insiders are going to hold onto shares on lyft and this years classified ipos if they think it will lead to larger returns in the future the ride sharing names are working to convince investors theyll be able to stem losses and get to profitability eventually. Deirdre bosa in San Francisco. More on where lyft could be headed next, hes back interesting day today in the stock. The stock volume was up four times average daily since it went public back in april. The options volume was two times average daily volume it was interesting to me, there wasnt too many that caught my eye. The most interesting thing was the april 23rd this friday expiration 50 puts and a lot of them looked to be sold to close. I can tell that from the open interest coming into today it might have been long holder who had bought some short dated, for fear the stock could break down and make a new low here thats confidence maybe that some thinking with the stock stability down only down 1. 5 . On big volume it might be putting in a near term bottom. This is the chart, since the ipo in april, and its really interesting. See that circle right there . That was august 7th when the Company Reported their q2 earnings the stock was trading in the after market up 12 on a lot of the metrics that they did really well on. It was a really good report. And then that notice of the accelerated lockup this by the way i was told by bankers was in the s1, but people didnt see it, and they had the option to do that if it was not in the quiet period. The stock has gone down to 51 1 2. It looks like 50 on that chart is a good level. I think this new share that can trade now with interest as high as it were, you may see some of that tear off, and that may be dampening. So options in lyft might get a whole heck of a lot cheaper, especially if it can find some support in the 50 level. The case could be made that the drop because of the lockup expiration happens prior to the lockup expiration itself because of the way it was to dans point, that august 7th rate, the stock was trading up to 63. We were sitting here talking about what a great quarter it was. The only thing we were concerned about they lumped on this 275 million share lockup coming out today. We said, you know, youve got to take some pause with that. Here we are from 63 to 51. The main low, i think, was 4717 give or take i think dans right. I think youre getting towards levels now where it becomes very interesting based on that last quarters release. It is still 80 of the fully diluted share count, what is expiring thats crazy thats a huge amount. It is if youre buying this company today, though, i dont think youre buying it for a trade i think you are truly going to be an investor these guys gave very good numbers. They fast forwarded their path to profitability on par revenue is that really the term our par active rider. Our par, revenue per active rider was up 22 , which means they have higher ticket numbers. Im sorry, guys, its the new term theres a lot of lingo and jargon. Take rates were higher. Theres a lot of stuff in there that gave investors confidence that the stories as a pure play on ride share in the United States is kind of working and theyre a bit more focused than their friends over at uber who have to think about what does geographic competition look like what does it look like as they do delivery, as they do a whole host of other things i think this story is starting to shape up. For more options action, you can catch the full show friday, up next weve got the final trade. See thats funny, i thought you traded options. Im not really a wall street guy. Whats the hesitation . Eh, it just feels too complicated, you know . Well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. Jj, will you break it down for this gentleman . Hey, ian. You know, at Td Ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until youre comfortable. I could be up for that. Thats taking options trading from wall st. To main st. Hey guys, wanna play some pool . Eh, im not really a pool guy. Whats the hesitation . Its just complicated. Stepbystep options trading support from Td Ameritrade through the at t network, edgetoedge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. From using feedback to innovate. To introducing products faster. To managing website inventory. And network bandwidth. Giving you a nice big edge over your competition. Thats the power of edgetoedge intelligence. So, every day, we put our latest technology and unrivaled network to work. The United StatesPostal Service makes more ecommerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the country. Weve got a news alert on shares of the stock is falling hard down 9. 5 the fda says its concerned about its muscular dystrophy drug, related to the intravenous fusion ports and renal toxicity in the administration of the drug we are seeing that stock down sharply. Guy, im not sure this was a power pitch, quickly i think it was 90 when i did it, went up to 150 a lot of news has come out id like to read a little bit more at a certain point probably back to that 90 level where we started in the first place. Final trade time, home depot would be a shop. The sensitivity around Interest Rates has been very negative for home depot, and its been a tailwind. Lori, we like consumer staples, we like the dividend yield. It does well when the feds easing the valuations look fine, its got low policy risks not just from the trade war but also the 2020 election. Graeeat having you on. Stan. You want to trade it against those lows from a couple of months ago. Shes tolerated our tom fooleri. R earnings my mission is simple to make you money. Im here to level the Playing Field for all investors. There is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now hey, im cramer. Welcome to mad money. Welcome to cramerica. My job is to teach, educate you socall or tweet me jimcramer who is afraid of the big bad