Is there more pain to come or a real bottom anywhere in sight . Trade tensions still in focus as the Chinese Central Bank does something it has not done in more than ten years. Well tell you what that is on this thursday, augustth as Worldwide Exchange begins right now. Good morning, good afternoon, good evening and welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching. Im Brian Sullivan you are watching Worldwide Exchange. Thanks for joining us. These crazy, volatile markets have shown no signs of slowing down yesterday at this hour we were calm then stocks began to sink when trading began. The dow continued to fall, at one point off 550 points but then the buyers, they came in in the afternoon. The dow ended the day dow 22 points, posting one of its greatest point turnarounds of all time what will happen today lets look here is how your money and investments look futures are mildly higher. Dow futures up 21 points but this time yesterday futures were basically flat. All of a sudden trading began and things went haywire. Bonds have been caught up in the wild swings. As stocks sold off yesterday, bonds got bought in a big way. The yield on the tenyear, 1. 6 yesterday. The bond wally triggering the widest yield curve inversion between a threemonth and the tenyear treasuries since back to march 2007. The asian markets rose fractionally over night. China up about a percent on the mainland they set the official Reference Point for the yuan at just over 7 per u. S. Dollar. Now remember the higher that number goes, 7, 8, 9, that means it is weakening. That is the weakest official level in more than a decade. However stocks are rising here and futures are hanging on because that number was not as weak as some had feared. In the european markets. A lot of green on the screen in asia not big gains. France, the big winner right now. The cac 40 up about 1 when volatility jumps and people get scared they often buy gold they have been doing it. They continue to do it not so much this morning, gold is down 0. 7 , but gold rallied 18 in just 90 days, making it one of the best performing investments in the world oil also slightly higher this morning. The saudis reportedly looking to do something, maybe anything to stop the slide in the price recy well look at the oil stock sector in a few minutes. Dont miss that. How should you be reacting in the face of all this volatility . Joining us is hank smith from haverford trust. Hank, how have your clients responded and reacted to the last week and a half or so everything has kind of gone nuts brian, i think theyve been fairly calm. We constantly counsel our clients to expect volatility, to expect pullbacks and the occasional correction. Thats all part of being an equity investor. There is no such thing as a free lunch. You have to be able to put up with volatility. But if you own high quality merchandise and particularly dividendpaying stocks, you can weather out the volatility much more easily. What does high quality mean to you right now financially strong companies, very strong balance sheets, quality managements, and businesses that are time tested that have done well throughout numerous economic cycles and that gives you great confidence because were not always going to be in an expansion. Eventually there will be a recession. I dont think one is coming any time too soon. Time tested companies. Give us an example of one or two if you can absolutely. Johnson johnson, jpmorgan, u. P. S. On the industrial side. Pepsi. These are all companies that have great records of paying dividends and growing dividends annually, and being able to withstand the various ups and downs in the economy if youre betting and buying u. P. S. , i would imagine you do not believe there is going to be a u. S. Or a global recession we do not think there is going to be a u. S. Or global recession over the course of the next 12 to 18 months you cant really go out beyond that with conviction yes, the yelled curve inverted true, every recession has been preceded by an inversion but not every inversion results in a recession there are other indicators credit spreads have not blown out. That typically happens also rising inflation, we dont have that. Rising unemployment, we dont have that. A precipitous decline in confidence confidence is down but still elevated we dont see a recession so you think the big bond move and that yield curve, that has nothing to do with the slowdown maybe as much as people are flocking to safety, buying anything they can, especially in america given that 15 trillion or 16 trillion in the world ha negative Interest Rates, you wont buy that youll buy u. S. Debt absolutely. As you pointed out previously, were in a world that has no precedent. We cant go back and say the last time we had negative yields we have not had a last time or the last time we had qe 1, 2, 3, we have not had that. That creates a lot of anxiety because theres no playbook for the type of environment weve been in. Hank smith, appreciate it thank you. A number of other individual stock movers to talk about lets find out who they are. Do you call them trainers or sneakers sneakers. Lets start with lyft the Ride Hailing Service reporting a smaller adjusted loss in the Second Quarter as revenue rose 72 beating forecast lyft is gaining more riders and those riders are paying more per ride the company boosting its outlook for the year shares are up 6. 1 in premarket. Shares of adidas are lower in germany after the sports wear giant reported disappointing sales in the Second Quarter. Shares are down almost 2 . Adidas does expect a recovery in the second half of the year after stemming a decline in europe and also as its reebok business improves. And booking holdings now Second Quarter earnings and revenue here beat forecast the company which owns priceline, kayak and booking. Com said they had a solid start to the Summer Travel season booking says theyre taking into account that the u. S. china trade fight may have on the industry but they also believe the Chinese Market will be strong over the longterm. Shares of booking holdings are up more than 5 . Not a bad morning there see you in a bit we are just getting warmed up on this thursday. When we come back, whether you call it crude, black gold or texas tea, theres no denying theres been a lot of pain in Oil Investors this year. Well show you how bad its been and maybe try to find the bull case in the wreckage then rising risks in real estate in the face of extreme weather, our diana olick is here and takes a closer look. And where is the beef . Its not here. Well tell you about burger Kings Mission impossible. Stick around cake in the Conference Room showing em youre ready. To be your own boss. Thats the beauty of your smile. Crests three dimensional whitening. Removes stains,. Whitens inbetween teeth. And protects from future stains. Crest. Healthy, beautiful smiles for life. Welcome back and good morning. All right. Should we get crude right now . Oil has not been well, neither have the stocks. Oil and gas stocks have been decimated lately with investors fleeing the group as fast as they can hit the sell button lets look at whats been happening and maybe if theres a bull case to be had. Oil and oil stocks usually trade together not lately oil stocks have largely decoupled as oil and gas stocks have been sold off by the market oild oil remained fairly steady the xop etf is the red line here back in 2016, oil was at 30 per barrel everything fell. Oil stocks fell. Were at about 51 a barrel now, but the xop oil and gas etf is down 71 from its high five years ago and below where it was when oil was at 30 oil, 21 a barrel higher than it was, but oil and gas stocks are below. If you have not been following, heres some stats. Its been ugly half of oil and gas stocks are down more than 50 in the past year half of them valuations are largely lower than they were when oil was at 30 to 35 and theres issues with new well experimentation. And high debt hit companies hard and theres a lot of debt among these oil and gas companies. Theres more than 200 billion in oil and gas debt around the world. The pain is everywhere certain operating areas have been getting hit harder than others, particularly areas that are higher cost. For example, the bakken, way up there in north dakota. Some of the higher cost areas. Average return of a stock operating in the bakken, oasis petroleum, others, down 59 . The permian, 52 these are oneyear returns, by the way. Investors have been crushed. The best performing group are the offshore names theyre only down 46 . But unless you believe the industry is completely going away and stocks will be wiped out by bankruptcies, there may be a bull case here. Heres what the bull also say right now. Valuations, theyre simply too low. Theyre below in some cases where oil was when it was at 20 and 25 a barrel. Production growth should slow. As prices weaken, producers pull back rig counts are coming down opec production, theyir production is down if youre worried about debt, all these low rates, this bond market move, that may help these companies refinance their debt and maybe stave off some of those debt concerns. So far the bull case has been put out to pasture but with many stocks down 60 or 07 in a year, at some point theyre going to get bought or theyre going to get gone. Coming up, we just talked about all the pain in the oil patch, we have an analyst who says this too shall pass and he will make the case for 100 per barrel oil plus is the worst of the volatility finally behind us one top strategist lays out what orwi ehaes ckbuying now wlddexcng iba after this a lot of folks ask me why their dishwasher doesnt get everything clean. I tell them, it may be your detergent. Thats why more dishwasher brands recommend cascade platinum. Its speciallydesigned with the soaking, scrubbing and rinsing built right in. Cascade platinums unique actionpacs dissolve quickly. To remove stuckon food. For sparklingclean dishes, the first time. Choose the detergent that lets your dishwasher do the dishes cascade platinum. The number one recommended brand in north america. They use stamps. Com all the services of the post office only cheaper get a 4week trial plus postage and a digital scale go to stamps. Com tv and never go to the post office again. Get a 4week trial plus postage and a digital scale when you have nausea, heartburn, indigestion, upset stomach, diarrhea try new pepto liquicaps for fast relief and ultracoating. Nausea, heartburn, indigestion, upset stomach, diarrhea get powerful relief with new pepto bismol liquicaps. Welcome back good morning dow futures are up 58. For any investor measuring opportunity against risk is critical, for Real Estate Investors in particular rising sea levels and extreme weather are a growing part of that risk. Thats why a Cottage Industry of companies are stepping up to give investors a look at the future and what it might cost. Diana olick has the details and the latest on her series on the rising risks to real estate. Reporter when a typhoon ravaged hong kong last summer and Hurricane Florence decimate ed south carolina, mary ludkin was watching her job is to measure risk across the firms 42 billion worth of Property Assets across four continents. And climate risk is the new frontier we see it as the unexplored risk that we need to try to quantify. Reporter she partnered with the urban Land Institute on a groundbreaking study it concluded that overall the real estate markets are far from understanding Climate Risks enough to price them in today, but those who are prepared have the potential to outperform. We wanted to sharpen our skills and ability to underwrite the risk of Sea Level Rise, storm surge, wildfires reporter so she turned to a brandnew category of companies, hightech data analysts who go beyond current flood maps to forecast future climate risk to real estate. When you look out at the water around manhattan, what is the first thing that comes to your mind its beautiful and its incredibly dangerous reporter rich sorkin is cofounder and ceo of jupiter intelligence, a barely 3yearold startup that has grown to a staff of 50, backed by 40 million in venture capital. Among the clients are the cities of new york and miami. Were seeing a dramatic expansion in large corporations coming to us saying we need to understand the risk to this Office Complex or the risk to this hotel or the risk to this neighborhood where we have hundreds and millions of dollars of mortgages out. Reporter jupiter analyzes specific properties with data points and gives clients a risk score going out 10, 20, 50 years. Were essentially physically modeling what is happening with the atmosphere and the water or the fire at a very specific level of detail, which is now only possible because computers have gotten so powerful. Reporter and it goes well beyond what Insurance Companies forecast insurance is basically a oneyear contract. At the end of which the insurer gets to say, well keep insuring you, heres the new cost or sorry, insurance is no longer available given the wind risk in your location. Reporter when most people consider climate risk, theyre not picturing a gorgeous day like this along the chicago river, theyre think being hurricahu thinking about hurricanes or wildfires. But companies are trying to protect against extreme weather, and thats another risk to Real Estate Investors what we added into the mix is what if your insurance costs quadruple, what if property tax quadruples, does the investment still make sense reporter the United States faces 4 400 billion of costs in the next 20 years to defend coastal communities from Sea Level Rise according to a Study Released by the center for climate integrity and resilient analytics, that includes building 50,000 miles of coastal barriers in 22 states. Two years ago s a s ago drentrei voted to tax themselves to prevent flooding the last two years have been transformative in terms of the way the Business Community all over the world is thinking about these issues. Reporter climate Risk Analytics may be small now but its a big growth business, the same way cyberrisk a started a decade ago one company that we showed you, 427, just bought by moodys. It shows you how valuable these companies are becoming you have the Risk Analytics, you have Companies Like jupiter, theyre doing the modeling is there any real concrete way to know for buyers out there, whether its commercial or residential what the real risk is theyre trying to quantify that and youre saying is it certain . No but anything we invest in we do these analytics. If youre going to trust in any analytics for any investment you have to look at this this is big business. That company you talked about went from 3 to 50 employees in a couple years is there anything for the average individual to say i want to buy a beach house, but is there anybody there to help me model that risk . There are some websites out there from the government and noaa, so you can look at things like that. But a lot of people think its the Insurance Companies who will tell us what the risk is, but Insurance Companies model for today based on the past. What these companies are doing is looking at the future forget the past. The ultimate arbitrator is if the Insurance Company will give you insurance. Right i dont think shoe build there, mr. Sullivan. Right thats for the homeowner today but were talking Big Companies with billions of dollars worth of commercial real estate. Great stuff as always well see you all day long still to come, some 6 Million People in America Today are living with dementia now Silicon Valley and one health giant are teaming up to help spot some of the earliest signs of the disease first one of the hottest streaming stocks this year getting ready to hit new highs this morning its not amazon. Its not netflix who is it . Well rock you when Worldwide Exchange returns. So you can save big. Get a nofee personal loan up to 100k. My bladder leak underwear. Orried someone might see so, i switched. To always discreet boutique. Its shapehugging threads smooth out the back. So it fits better than depend. And no one notices. Always discreet. Stock futures are up 46 points right now when we come back, how one top strategist is positioning his portfolio. Hes seeing more gains ahead. And later this is my house. I have to defend it. Now 38 years old, Mccauley Culkin reacting to news of a possible home alone reboot that may be in the works. Is nothing sacd yme . Ckft ts. Reanor new align whole food probiotic. A blend of quality probiotics and fermented whole food botanicals, expertly curated to naturally support your gut health every day. Go with align whole food blend. From the pros in digestive health. Theres one number that is pushing the markets and your money around right now what it is and why you care ahead. And it certainly has been a wild ride lately if theres one lesson this week, its that you cannot afford to turn off cnbc for a minute well get you ready for todays trading session. Wheres the beef its not here. Why burger king may be going from Mission Impossible with the whopper. Its august 8th, 2019, youre watching Worldwide Exchange right here on cnbc good morning welcome. Thanks for being with us on cnbc im Brian Sullivan lets check the other top headlines including an important update from Frances Rivera on why you should never put an octopus on your face first, President Trump and the first lady are back at the white house after grieving dayton, ohio an el paso, texas. The president was met supporters including First Responders in el spo pass so. The fda is investigating 127 cases of seizures after vaping the agency said it received about 92 reports from kids and young adults they say its unclear whether ecigarettes caused the seizures heres a lesson the hardware about marine life. She did this to enter an oregon fishing derby contest. This is a baby octopus on her face she didnt know they can bite or that they have venom in their beaks. I didnt know they had beaks the moment is captured here when she ripped it off her face a few days later her throat closed and half of her face became paralyzed now hes on antibiotics and she still has a swollen face the only time an octopus needs to be anywhere near your face is if its when youre about to eat a grilled one. Other than that, should be nowhere near anything up here. Im glad that shes on the mend, that is scary. Fried calamari, the way to go. Not grilled. Thats a squid. Theyre all the same. The point is this, if you watch octopus in action, they will go in and rip open a giant clam they have those suctions. Thats what theyre for. Theyre like parrots with eight sticky legs. After yesterdays wild market swings, here is how your money looks right now. Dow futures are up 49 points so maybe some calm. Yesterday it was calm at this hour, too, then the dow fell 550, then buyers came in and we ended down 22. It was one of the biggest point turnarounds of all time in the stock market in the bond market, yields are ticking up just a bit. 1. 72 . The asian markets did rise fractionally up overnight. The central bank of china setting the official rate for the yuan at over 71 thats the weakest official level in more than a decade. But we saw the asian markets up and futures here up because that number was not as weak as some had feared in europe, similar story a lot of green on the screen, not huge gains, but were higher oil, that has been in focus. The saudis reportedly looking for ways to firm up the price of oil. Gold down a bit. It has been hot. Gold is up 18 in the past 90 days joining us now is john stolfus from Oppenheimer Asset Management are you one of these people who has been in the market buying gold en masse . The gold bugs have been out. Not i, brian. We wont tell people not to buy gold if theyre hell bent on it. But it just isnt our favorite asset class. Were more intent on seeing finding babies that got thrown out with the bath water when we go through one of these selling periods than chasing gold at this point what do we chase . With this market volatility, is there any place dont say bonds or cash in a shoe box under a mattress that looks relatively safe or even fairly or undervalued the word safe is something we cant say about anything that can fluctuate, whether its gold or even safe in terms of putting the money under the mattress thats not a safe thing to do or putting it into negative yielding bonds thats not a good idea in our opinion. We continue to like equities we think technology, which has experienced a bit of selling over the last few days, that looks good we think industrials, which are the new technology, you think of the importance of industrial equipment, all the sensors, things that are applied to the internet of things with that, we like Consumer Discretionary with more people working, more people or wages creeping higher, good Consumer Sentiment and we like financials nobody likes financials, right but financials make the world go around we cant help but think that this is a world in which perhaps a flat yield curve does not mean big banks cant make money if you look at it, a lot of them are making money because they dont pay a heck of a lot on deposits youre supposed to buy things, im told, that other people dont want. Buy low, sell high go back to Consumer Discretionary. If youre betting on the consumer, is that you saying were not headed for recession any time soon . Yes, sir, we do not believe were headed to recession any time soon. Yesterday on cnbc i had a break, i was at the Oppenheimer Annual Technology conference in boston, and we took a break. I turned on cnbc i saw the head of visa was on television being interviewed on cnbc they were talking about how Good Business was around the world. So we like the consumer. It may not always show up in every retail name, but across the Consumer Discretionary sector we believe theres plenty of value where would the s p 500 or the dow be if we didnt have this trade fight, john if tariffs didnt exist, and it was all huggy, huggy and kissy kissy with china, where would the market be . Brian, its hard to say theres so many factors around that if we take that as the central consideration, if Everything Else was equal based on prior to march of 2018, he would have to think that probably the s p would be up about 20 or 25 higher than it is. Wow we might get that ahead of the election well find out we like you, john. You said cnbc like eight times in the interview thats a win thanks, brian have a great day. Some other big stock stories to Pay Attention to today, rahel solomon is here on cnbc with more of these names. Good morning. So lets start with a deal in a Software Space broadcom is in advanced talks to buy semantics Enterprise Business the unit could be valued at 10 billion. Aig beat forecasts due to strong underwriting and continued improvement in the flagship property and also Casualty Insurance business. Aig got a lift from its investment portfolio you can see shares this morning up almost 4 and shares of roku surging today. The company reporting a smaller than expected loss in the Second Quarter as revenue beat estimates. Roku topped 30 million users and it expects twothirds of revenue to come from the platform business, which is mainly derived from ads shown on its streaming video channels now back to cnbcs Brian Sullivan we had roku as a mystery chart, and who else but jim cramer goes what is roku for 110. Oil has been getting crushed this week. Oil stocks hit harder. Could a supply cut finally be in the cards as producers look to give some support to prices . And have we reached the nostalgia limit . The reaction one 90s star had to say about disney possibly rebooting his famous mieov stick around [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. And you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. But youre not mad, because you have e trade which isnt complicated. Their tools make trading quicker and simpler. So you can take on the markets with confidence. Dont get mad. Get e trade and start trading today. Happening right now, ula is preparing to launch its fifth High Frequency satellite into orbit on board an atlas 5 rocket this could pave the way for boeings new crew liner, the star liner, on the same launchpad. That cannot happen until this rocket takes off if the star liner test is successful, it could take on xs x and blue origin in the race to once again launch humans into space. That rocket launch expected between now and 7 45 eastern hopefully when it takes off well have big, beautiful video. A couple of notable analyst calls. Goldman sachs are downgrading caterpillar to a neutral from a buy. Analysts citing production cuts in north america as well as china Construction Equipment markets. Caterpillar down 1 . Disney upgraded to neutral or from neutral to outperform by credit suisse. The firm argues while disney has outperformed, it sees more room on the upside on the launch of disney plus this fall. Disney up over a percent oil is moving up fractionally this morning on chatter that opec or the saudis or both may try to cut supply to count their weeks slump prices. Commodities are down 30 from october and no surprise that has had a huge drain on Energy Stocks oil and gas down 25 from the havent hig recent highs, and energys weighting in the s p, 4. 7 thats down from 16 ten years ago. Joining us is the Senior Vice President and Energy Analyst at raymond james. Weve seen many gas names, not tiny companies, but big mid caps and smaller large caps have lost 50 or 60 of their value in a year do you see any sign of a bottom or a turn . Yes your previous guest was talking about buying things out of favor. Energy is it amazing statistic for you. You mentioned energy, 4. 7 of the s p. That is the lowest since 1999 when oil was 10 bucks a barrel today were north of 50 bucks a barrel yes. The equities have diverged from the commodity itself the commodity has been tough of late still up year to date. The stocks are obviously down. So multiples have compressed that creates, at least on selective cases, a lot of buying opportunities, particularly among some of the Higher Quality names. Also those small cap high beta ideas that are really, really destroyed over the last several months theyve been decimated. We have this chart it is the xop, one of the bigger etfs against the price of oil. Normally they trade the same way, but now the xop and most oil and gas stocks are trading below where they were when oil was at 30 a barrel. In other words, investors have literally given up and they dont seem to care that oil is at 51. Yeah. Theres an element here of selling begets selling, which is to say when energy the whole sector is less than 5 of the market, for fund generalists its too small to matter theres that i think theres an esg dynamic at work, where you have some funs shying away from fossil fuels in general thats more relevant for coal than oil an gas. But its a lot of apathy this creates buying opportunities. Particularly on the most oil levered equity so natural gas is different. Natural gas is in a structural bear market. Oil will be setting new cyclical highs in 2020. Why do you believe that production keeps going up in america. If the companies have a way to get their natural gas to market, theyll keep producing more oil because they want the gas because they need to sell it to the l g producers. We should never get into a onehand clapping approach if we look at u. S. Oil supply, yes, thats up saudi arabia is down venezuelas collapsed. Irans collapsed because of sanctions. Russia had a pipeline outage if countries like mexico, china and colombia where production is flat its down in the north sea yes, a few places are growing. Notably the u. S. And brazil, but in general supply is looking much more bullish than six months ago the problem for the price is demand this is where the trade war weighed so much. Mostly as a result of sentiment rather than physical impact on demand when the trade war subsides, that will a catalyst for oil prices to go back up the oil market has been beaten a real pleasure as always. Thank you very much. On deck, apple and eli lilly teaming up to identify and fight dementia. And later today do not miss carl icahn live on cnbc. He will be on the Halftime Report at 12 30 well be back after this but with sofi, you can get your credit cards right by consolidating your Credit Card Debt into one monthly payment. You can get your Interest Rate right by locking in a fixed low rate today. And you can get your money right. With sofi. Check your rate in 2 minutes or less. Get a nofee personal loan up to 100k. My first job is to care for derek. Everything i do is for him. When i moved to this apartment after six months, we need to connect with the world. I use the internet to keep him in the language, because thats the way to connect to my familys traditions. He has to know where he comes from. We need internet essentials. Theres no excuse to not get connected. Welcome back its time for your top trending stories. Rahel solomon what will we be talking about today . Times square is lit you are the kind of person who would say lit . A, im too old. B, thats not even cool anymore to say that, right oh. That means im old apple is teaming up with eli lilly on new research to detect early brain decline. The study found people with symptoms of cognitive decline type less frequently and more slowly and relied on support apps more often. Researchers said more study is needed. And vegetarian burger king fans, today is your day. The impossible whopper is being launched nationwide today. You have to commit to this if you want it to stick around. Burger says the impossible whopper will only become a permanent menu item if theres high customer demand youre vegetarian, will you try this only if my friends are already at burger king i mean yeah. Now theyre send you one. Will you try it i will. Do you frequent burger kings a lot . No. But ill try it. Everyone heard of this. This movie is a classic. Have you heard about disneys plans to reboot the classic home alone. Now the movies star is weighing in look at this picture, it may be hard to believe, but that is Mccauley Culkin. Not looking his best he tweeted a photo of what he thinks an updated home alone would look like. Clearly its tongue and cheek. Doesnt seem like he has high hopes for kevin mcalister. A lot of fans it on twitter are also wondering how this could work thats hilarious. He has a great sense of humor. Home alone would not work. Hi, im home alone on text parents are back done lets leave some things alone. Plus theyll have a ring doorbell so the burglars cant get in we can watch the old version. Will star the rock. Time for your executive recap. The United States and australia raising their travel warnings for hong kong saying visitors should be extra careful in the chinese territory amid continued protests more demonstrations are planned for this weekend. Apple under investigation for unfair competition in russia the countrys antimonopoly watchdog said apple maye be abusing its position and cbs and viacom were expected to announce a merger, but there are talks over an Exchange Rate ratio. The yield on the tenyear note is at 1. 731, but many say were on our way to recession. Is the bond market screaming recession or Something Else . If its not screaming, its speaking loudly. Its starting to discount a high probable of a doleability of a e six 6 to 12 months is that globally or the u. S. . I think that would be globally i think the u. S. Economy is stronger than most of the rest of the world the european economy is close to recession already. The German Economy may be in recession. The asian economy is struggling as well. The Central Banks were cutting Interest Rates there in anticipation of weaker growth. If the u. S. Is in recession, the entire Global Economy will be in recession. The reason i ask is because who is leading whom . You look at these negative Interest Rates around the world, particularly in germany. I wonder if our bond market may be signaling a recession but could it be signaling yields are low because people are buying our bonds, because even 1. 7 is better than negative 0. 5 in germany. Thats part of the story. Absolutely it points to a fundamental problem, the trade war that is doing real damage across the glove. Its crea globe. It is creating uncertainty and Bond Investors are looking for the safest place i think the trade war is the root cause of all of this what is the thing that could take us out of recession if trump tweets today, called xi xi, we decided well hug it out and theres no tariffs anymore, everything is fine does that take us out of the danger zone . I think that would go a long way to it. Thats a necessary condition at this point for us to avoid an economic downturn. The economy is struggling. I think, yeah, the thing that is really at the heart of the Global Economy, our economys problem now is this trade war. If the president takes it away, key he could do that quickly, the risk of recession goes away. We may be tariffing our way into recession if there is a recession, we caused it. Yeah. One thing i will say, at some point the president cant take this back. If Growth Continues to slow and unemployment continues to notch higher, at that point consumers lose faith, pull back, and thats recession almost regardless of what the president or the fed does. Have we lost control of the car or is there still time to steer back into the lane i think theres still time. Were creating enough jobs, consumers are okay theyre kind of oblivious to whats going on at least so far, so theres still time but the president has to move quickly. Always a pleasure to get your views. We know the administration watches cnbc, maybe theyre listening out there. Great they do they tweet ed out to mr. Wonderful the other day. Always a pleasure. Thank you. Thank you if you like the beatles, this mornings rbi is for you. Because today, believe it or not, were celebrating an iconic anniversary. The classic beatles album, abbey road, arguably has the most recognizable cover of all time hard to believe that it was on this date, august 8, 1969 that that unforgettable photo was taken. If you happen to be in london today and you want to recreate that piece of music, given that its the 50th anniversary of abbey road, my guess is to get to abbey road sooner rather than later because you will probably wait in line the rest of us can come together and listen to that classic album. Abbey road 50 years old. Hard to believe. Thats it for Worldwide Exchange. Ill see you on the exchange at 1 00. Squawk box begins right now. Good morning we have a rate shock sparking market turmoil well show you how stocks are setting up this morning. Red flags for the trade war. China fixing its currency at the lowest rate since april of 2008. And customers of seoul cycle and equinox protesting the company after a fundraiser for President Trump. Squawk box begins right now. Live from new york where business never sleeps this is squawk box. Good morning, welcome to squawk box. Im melissa lee along with Andrew Ross Sorkin joe and becky are off today. Our guest host is tom farley joining us for the hour, lekovich yesterday the dow was down by 598 points at the lows were looking at 63 points at the open s p 500 down by 2 we tested mondays lows in yesterdays session, bounced off of that and added. Overnight inasia, we did have green arrows across the board. Japans nikkei index up by 0. 4 . Hang seng up by a half percent shanghai up 0. 9 we got good trade data out