Im Brian Sullivan its going to be a very busy day for the markets and your money the market still digesting and reacting to the news that President Trump will slap another 10 tariff on the remaining 300 billion in chinamade goods not already subject to taxes that goes into effect september 1st. Its also the first friday of the month, that means its the monthly jobs report day, which, if its very weak, could press the fed to maybe cut rates again in september thats if that number comes in soft the dow losing 280 points yesterday. It looks like we could lose more dow futures are down just under 100 points we walked in the door about an hour ago, they were down about 50 we are losing steam. Its still early anything can change. Do keep in mind context is key the s p 500 is still up 17 this year. The nasdaq 100 still up 23 . So the markets have absorbed this fairly well, but the markets not liking that new news on tariffs one index that youll see only on cnbc, that is important to Pay Attention to, is our china trade index. This is a group of stocks made up of Companies Seen as particularly exposed to china trade. That index falling look at this you want to know when the president kaem ocame out and ta about those tariffs . Its not hear. Its not hard 1 30 in the afternoon, whoa, all of a sudden big drop midday. That index falling 3 . Maybe a bigger story was the incredible move in bonds the bond market nervous about jay powell, now a shock about trumps tariffs. People flooding into bonds as they sold stocks that sent yields below 2 . Look at that, the yield on the tenyear went from 2 to 1. 84 right now thats where we sit. If you want to find an upside, Mortgage Rates should come down. Not entirely based on the tenyear, but as that comes down Mortgage Rates may come down the asian markets reacting to all of this. China is stimulating their market in a big way. So the Chinese Market may not be dropping as much as you might think. Down 1. 4 . Japan, theyve run out of stimulus ideas the nikkei 225 getting hit harder down 2 . China all red here the hong kong hang seng down 2 . Theyre also dealing with massive protests there as well the yuan falling sharply today this is an inverted chart. As this goes up, that means the chinese currency value is coming down and the number you want to watch is 7 were at 6. 94. That chinese yuan, that is a sensitive number also Pay Attention to the biggest china stock etf here thats the fxi its not moving right now, but it fell more than 2 yesterday thinly traded at this hour this is a good u. S. Proxy for the chinese stock market so the fxi, something to watch today. Now you know the setup on a friday lets get to the news. President trump reiterating a new tariff threat against china at a rally last night in ohio, saying the u. S. Will tax the hell out of china until we get a deal tracie potts now has more from d. C. He says his concern is that chinas not sticking to the deal that they were supposed to buy more from our farmers to compensate for what he says are billions of dollars that were losing in chinese trade. But thats not happening so thats why President Trump says he is slapping this new round of tariffs on china. The big question this morning, what does this mean for consumer t consumers buying iphones, clothes and baby furniture that will be covered under these tariffs . President trump is promising consumers they will not be paying more though experts say theres a big chance those costs will be passed on. This morning china is talking about possibly retaliating saying they dont want to get into a trade war with the u. S. But they will if they have to. Tracie potts, thank you very much joining us on the cnbc news line is dan clifton thank you for joining us the president saying he will tax the hell out of china. Lets be clear, those tariffs are not a tax on china, are they theyre a tax on the people, the companies here in america that buy the imported goods good morning. Again, thank you for having me today. And lets just say that even if the president is correct and somehow these tariffs get passed on, if you listen to tracies report, shes talking about higher costs foriphones, shoes all sorts of goods as were going into back to School Season and preparing for the Holiday Season if you look at the u. S. Consumer, which has been a staple of this economy and has held up while investment has slowed during this trade escalation, you will probably start seeing a Second Derivative effect of less confidence amoeng u. S. C among u. S. Consumers much of the data weve seen are been lagging indicators. Were concerned because investment is falling off and now we have a new level of escalation lets back up do you believe the tariffs will go into effect on september 1st . I would say the probability is higher that tariffs will go into effect september 1st. What the president is trying to do is bring china to the table you have to remember, that we went through this just one or two months ago where the president said im going from 10 to 25 on intermediate goods. And the supply chains began to leave china. What trump is saying today, hey, well go deeper. Well make sure every good coming out of china is facing an import tax as a way to bring china to the table for Structural Reforms but i have to say, on the consumer side of the equation, the chinese may be looking at that saying that hurts you just as much as us. Thats one reason why youre not seeing a negative reaction for the chinese stock market the last time we did this on the intermediate goods, that was a big hit for china. They may figure were already hit, lets wait this guy out for the election if thats the case, its likely these tariffs will go into effect ill ask you to make a multi trillion dollar guess, i guess, based on Consumer Spending i posted a poll on my twitter account. Will another 10 cost to chinese made goods slow down their spending its early 52 said yes 48 said no. Do you believe that if these tariffs go into effect and if retailers pass the entire thing which they probably wont, but if they pass the entire 10 through to the consumer, will that damage Consumer Spending or is the economy Strong Enough where people can groan but theyll still spend . I think the economy is still strong were going through the fastest portion of this cycles wage growth the Unemployment Rate is at historic lows. It will take a bit of time and an extended period of this to really begin to work its way through the consumer theres also other offsetting factors here, brian, that we need to consider so as a result, youre starting to see the Financial Markets are pricing in a greater odds that the fed will ease. Trump is locked no an epic battle with powell right now clearly the fed has to respond to external slowdowns like this. It wont happen in isolation, brian. I think you may see some response on the fed side and what levers does the president have can he Index Capital gains to inflation . Can he get a highway bill through . You will see trump trying to find other livers outside trade. You said lets bring china to the table. I was going to ask, this came one day after the Federal Reserve cut rates but was more hawkish. The president openly criticizing the fed. Im not sure the timing is accidental do you think these tariffs are just as much designed to bring Jerome Powell and the fed back to the rate cutting table in september as it is to bring china to the negotiating table absolutely. Even if its not by design, it will have that effect. In early may the president said he would put tariffs on mexico at a 5 rate, those tariffs never came into effect but it changed the thinking at the fomc that there are external factors, they have to build in a cushion for these risks down the road. This is what bernanke did over the fiscal cliff in 2012 now you have to see the fed get more aggressive. Even if they dont want to get more aggressive. When you look at the different bond indicatoindicators, the ma treating tariffs as a deflationary effect. That will effect the inflation equation that means the fed has to get more active. Central banks around the world will get more active that will be good for risk assets moving forward. Its a delay in timing at the end of the day, these are good for stocks if the fed is dropping rates probably not good for main street the president did have a main street recovery before this trade escalation well see if that can continue as well i know you have a busy day great to have you on Worldwide Exchange. Thank you. Okay. When we come back, much mr. More on the china tariff threat and how it could affect americas ports. Well speak with an analyst who has an inside look were looking tomake y make you. Were watching two stocks that will surge at the open for different reasons. Then as oil prices tanked yesterday, it will get cheaper to fill up your gas tank, but could it be a huge drag on jobs in one of the biggest areas of growth in america . One that matters on this jobs friday were back after this. You should be mad that this is your daily commute. You should be mad at people who forget theyre in public. And you should be mad at simple things that are unnecessarily complicated. But youre not mad, because youre trading with e trade, which isnt complicated. Their app makes trading quick and simple so you can strike when the time is right. Dont get mad, get e trade and start trading today. The markets are breaking through the other side, but thats the downside. Asian markets are down, our markets are down the word of the day is trade its not all about trade theres other stuff going on lets check the big stocks in the move good morning. Quite a mixed bag. Toyota, the automaker reporting profit rose 4 in the first quarter. Sales improved but they did fall in north America Toyota lowering its forecast blaming Unfavorable Exchange rates. Square are reporting a Second Quarter loss, though adjusted results beat forecast the Payments Company is issuing Third Quarter guidance that is weaker than expected that stock down almost 10 9. 2 square selling its Food Delivery Service caviar to door dash for 400 million. And shares of pinterest surging. Right now up 17 the social media site reporting betterthanexpected revenue in the Second Quarter as it added more monthly active users. Pinterest raising its revenue guidance for the year. That stock up 60 since its ipo in april up 17 premarket. And icahn disclosed a 12 stake in cloudera. Cloudera was founded by engineers from google, facebook and oracle but they have struggled to shift to the cloud. Those are the stocks on the move. Still on deck, has the trade fight hit volumes coming into u. S. Ports the answer may surprise you. And one area you really have to keep an eye on today is retail yesterday losing 20 billion in market value alone check out some of the names that you need to watch including best buy. It fell 10 on the tariff news, office depot, kohls as well retail has been rocked we have more on a busy friday. Were back after this. These folks dont have time to go to the post office they use stamps. Com all the services of the post office only cheaper get a 4week trial plus postage and a digital scale go to stamps. Com tv and never go to the post office again. Get a 4week trial plus postage and a digital scale cake in the Conference Room showing em youre ready. To be your own boss. Thats the beauty of your smile. Crests three dimensional whitening. Removes stains,. Whitens inbetween teeth. And protects from future stains. Crest. Healthy, beautiful smiles for life. Welcome back the trade war and the tariff threat are real. Theres a real concern that the flow of goods from china and around the world into america will slow. If you want a great leading indicator of how things are actually doing, you dont have to guess look at the u. S. Ports tracking volume in the ports is a bigtime tea leaf on a read of this economy someone who does that better than anyone is Katherine Thompson of Thompson Research group. Thank you for joining us any indication that were seeing a slowdown of goods in or out of american ports the last couple of months . Its quite the opposite if you look at the biggest ports along the southeast coast, youre seeing at least an 8 increase in the flow of goods and services the catch is its because of the widening of the panama canal so youre having ships coming in that are two to three times the size that would usually hit the west coast that are now hitting the east coast youre seeing billions of dollars being invested in key ports like savannah and charleston we dont see it stopping that trade flow has been big out there, but is it just a pull forward . People are so spooked by tariffs coming that theyre ordering extra goods to try to get ahead of it . Thats a fair point but the real demand is driven by the diversion of flow of goods from the west to the east. When you look at core growth, when you see companies that are doubling, tripling their investments, and if you use our own backyard, when you have major pe funds pulling their Real Estate Investments from nashville where were based to spec Warehouse Properties in service vann savannah, thats when we see that happening the private equity firms, they dont act like theyre running away from a trade fight. It sounds to you like theyre investing for the future in the increased flow of goods. Yeah. Theyll see what will happen with the trade war, theyre getting to the business and following the dollars. Listen, you know, theres a lot of Public Companies that can benefit from this trend. If you look at the trucking companies, 75 of goods are from the ports and are shipped by trucks you have old dominion, land star, some rails, csx, that will benefit. Then you think about it, youll be building out those warehouses, all the infrastructure in and around you have to have stuff to make that so you have everything from a fortera with water information to vulcan and martin and summit for just heavy rock to build the buildings that will support that growth dont tell anybody, but old dominion Freight Lines is up 12 , the stock up 12 in a month. I want to ask about infrastructure you and i normally talk about this the president is kind of mentioning stuff, its not getting attention given the debates and the trade fight. But the senate is quietly moving do you think we might get an infrastructure bill . That is originating in the senate versus the house, thats the real story the last multiyear highway bill was five years which is going to expire in 2020 it originated in the senate. We think it will happen in 19 or 21 its not going to happen in 2020 so there is some hope given that its starting in the senate, and of course this is a bipartisan issue. So theres some real support on both sides of the aisle. Katherine thompson, Thompson Research group, always a pleasure thank you very much for joining us if we get movement on this infrastructure bill, let us know people care. Thanks. Still to come, is trumps trade threat more about the Federal Reserve than china speaking of, dont forget, it is jobs friday. So could a weak number today do what the trade fight might noteo cut rates again . Futures are down 103 were back after this. For your heart. Your joints. Or your digestion. So why wouldnt you take something for the most important part of you. Your brain. With an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in Clinical Trials to improve shortterm memory. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. After the 280point drop yesterday, futures are pointing to more selling this morning futures off 103 right now the s p and nasdaq down as well. Theyre on pace for the worst week in two months the nasdaq the worst in three months the tenyear yield at 1. 84 . A lot more to do when we come back, how the latest threat of new tariffs could impact the oil patch thats been one of the greatest growth stories in america. Could the shale boom be at risk because of the trade fight well show you some stocks you have to see. And china responds the latest from china about the new tariff threats were back on Worldwide Exchange after this another punch known in the trade fight. Trump threatening another new 10 tariff on pretty much everything you buy at the store thats made in china china responding saying its not afraid and threatening to punch back this as futures fall again and Global Markets selloff happy friday its august 2, 2019, youre watching Worldwide Exchange on cnbc. Welcome back pour another cup of coffee, its a busy friday. Welcome back im Brian Sullivan the markets still digesting and reacting to the shock news that trump plans to slap another 10 tariff on the remaining 300 billion in china made goods not already subject to taxes that would go into effect september 1st. Its the first friday of the month so its also jobs day, which if that number comes in week, that could press the fed to do something the president wants, cut rates again in september. Thats if the number comes in weak if it comes in strong, different story for the fed. The dow lost 280 points yesterday. As soon as we heard trump say i want another 10 in tariffs the markets sold off were in the red dow futures not off too bad. Were seeing an 83point drop for dow futures. They have come up a touch. Still red on the screen. You want to Pay Attention to the retailers. They import so much of what you buy at the store in america. They have towants to tax the hell out of china. Those tariffs are not paid by china, theyre paid by the importers into the United States we saw a number of big retailers like best buy dropping 10 yesterday. Watch the xrt etf. Look at best buy this is yesterdays intraday chart. Thats about 1 30. Can you guess when the president talked about those tariffs as soon as those happened, best buy immediately fell, dropping 10 . Down about a half percent now because of those tariffs are on cell phones, flat panel tvs, video game consoles. All the stuff that best buy sells. Maybe more than stocks was the massive move in bonds. Everyone selling stocks and flooding into bonds. Jay powell and the fed getting another shot from the trump tariffs. Tenyear yield, 1. 85 . This time last year we were talking about maybe 3 , 3. 5 rates on the tenyear. Were at 1. 85 , droppingously o buyers flooded into bonds. 17 billion of sovereign debt with a negative yield. I guess theres one upside, Mortgage Rates should continue to come down you want to buy a home or refinance, that should send rates down the asian markets responding china down 1. 4 . Theyre stimulating the heck out of their market. That will be muted hong kong and japan taking the brunt of it. Hong kong dealing with protests as well. A quick check of european markets. See a trend . A lot to of red on the screen. Were seeing the averages, germany, france and the uk all down 2. 5 gasoline prices, they should considerably drop in the weeks to come. Oil prices had their worst day of the year yesterday. In fact, the worst day since late 2018. Again, this is the trade tweet yesterday. We saw the price of crude oil drop 7 . Coming become a bit, up 1. 5 now. Oil stocks, they were absolutely bludgeoned yesterday the xop etf falling 6 yesterday. Later in the show well show you massive drops in individual stocks especially on the higher cost Oil Producers chevron and exxon are posting earnings later this morning. President Trump Holding a rally in ohio last night he talked about his plans to impose a new 10 tariff on 300 billion more in chinese goods that is not already targeted weve been losing hundreds of billions of dollars a year to china. It has to stop they understand that president xi is a good man hes a friend of mine. Hei iaia iaunderstands it until such time as there is a deal, we will be taxing the hell out of china thats all there is. As you might imagine those words not going unnoticed across the pacific. China responding now lets get the response with eunice yoon who joins us live from beijing thank you very much to the chinese this is the end of the trade truce chinese officials have been coming out slamming President Trumps new tariffs. The Commerce Ministry called it a serious violation of the consensus made at the g20. The countrys top diplomat called it a move that was neither constructive nor correct. And the Foreign Ministry said that beijing would be forced to take countermeasures its that last point that has been really worrying a lot of american businesses here in china. The u. S. China Business council said their members are most worried about increased regulatory scrutiny, delays in licenses and approvals and discrimination in Government Procurement tenders. Retail verse been saying American Consumers will be hit hard we spoke with chinese manufactures who are worried about their bottom line. They say the chinese economy would take a beating and they also said that that 10 tariff, even though its lower than what President Trump said could happen at 25 , its still going to be a tough blow to their business one company that sells Christmas Gifts to the u. S. Says theyre thinking of pulling out of the American Market altogether in terms of the trade deal itself, theres a lot of reports in the stayed media, particularly the global times, which said at this point the new tariffs would only lower the prospects of a trade deal and that beijing will hunker down instead for a prolonged trade war. Brian, one other point i ended up speaking to one academic who closely follows whats happening in the trade talks from the chinese side. He said at this stage hes worried the chinese notioners wont ev negotiators wont even take part in the september talks which were agreed upon with their u. S. Counterparts in shanghai, because if these tariffs go through, the chinese would see it as such a breach in the relationship between the u. S. And china. Maybe we have to hunker down and have this trade war go on a lot longer than most thought it would. Joining us now is tom porcelli when this trade war began last year, trade wars are easy to win, shortlived how long do you think this could go on . Clearly this doesnt enany tim end any time soon. Its almost like theres two distinct camps within the Trump Administration one is the Peter Navarro camp, the other is the Steve Mnuchin camp our sense looks like navarro is winnin winning. And he has a laundry list of countries that he would like to sort of have these conversations with our thinking is if trump does win, that, you know, this will punctuate his second four years what is winning how do we define that . I dont think you do. If the president wants to ratchet up pressure on china an increase tariffs on hin china to move them to the table, china is moving away. Theyre doing the opposite its like a couple somebody has to apologize, but theyre not. Eventually theyll head to divorce. Thats our fear if the Peter Navarro camp wins this battle between mnuchin and navarro, this will be a problem. The reason why ism and these regional and other regional pmis are performing so poorly is exactly because of this. This thing brought the fed to the table. Well get to the fed in a second all that matters i think is the u. S. Consumer reaction lets say the tariffs go into effect september 1st right now the tariffs people are confused by them most of the tariffs are stuff that dont buy but this round would be on the stuff we buy the flat panel tv, the iphone, the Sony Playstation console would a 10 jump in Consumer Prices destroy Consumer Spending and thus the American Economy . So theres a couple ways of breaking this down so what we did initially when we a year and a half ago, crazy this has been going on for a year and a half but a year and a half ago when we thought these tariffs would be a part of the landscape, we went through the effort of finding out what the worst Case Scenario would be is this it . The economy is pretty good its funny how its playing out. We created this worst Case Scenario thinking it would never play out but it sort of is what we did was basically said lets assume the u. S. Consumer absorbs the full brunt of the tariffs. That 10 is passed on the retailers eat nothing. Supply chain eats nothing. Something that costs 30 bucks is now 33 bucks exactly what we further assumed is that everything that we import from china gets hit with a 25 tariff we were punitive in our analysis when you go through that effort, what you see is that the actual Economic Impact would be about a half percent of growth so if youre chugging along at a 2. 5 pace, you go down immediately to 2 . Theres a lot of caveats to that one is thats in a sort of first order world. But theres always second order. Like what happens to the supply chain . Thats your starting point for the conversation, a half percent to growth, again in the worst Case Scenario. You talk about deck derivative impacts, coming up we will talk about the shale boom oil fell 7 bucks yesterday some of these stocks are down 20 in a week. If we see massive job losses in the permian basis because of this, thats a secondary impact, a Million People who have good jobs now have no jobs. For sure. Its funny that you use that examplement we had menmen examplement. We had Something Like that play out in 15 the Energy Complex got heit har. Manufacturing was in a recession in 2015, u. S. Economic activity chugged along. Can the fed save us do they cut rates in september and would a half percent cut in the fed funds rate entice the consumer to stay in the market even if Consumer Prices go up 10 . The short answer is no. The fed cant. This has nothing to do with the fed. Monetary policy it has everything to do with the fed. The day after the fed disappointed the president , this tweet comes out. They got to be related ill say it again Monetary Policy can do little to blunt the blow of what is ultimately a president ial policy i think it keeps the fed engaged. I dont think its going to change the narrative from an Economic Perspective if manufacturing slip slips in recession because of this its still going to slip into recession. Its not a low rate problem, its a policy problem. It is if youre a Real Estate Developer in the white house good to see you. Oil prices fell nearly 8 yesterday. The worst day in a couple years. This after President Trump threatened those tariffs lets welcome in kyle cooper why did wti fall nearly 8 yesterday . Like you said combination of disappointing fed the day before, and then also this compounded effect of what happens to consumer demand as you just pointed out, it is going to hinge a lot on consumers. The last two reports have been very bullish showing large draws in total Petroleum Stocks but the fear is on demand. Do you think the oil market overreacted yesterday . Weve come back a little bit today. Still mid 50s. I do. It seems more and more the wti price is driven by algorithmic systems. The compound effect of the disappointing fed, this new tariff and there was a report that came out that trump is directing Lindsey Graham to make a deal with iran obviously some support to price, wti price, has been geopolitical tensions if on the backdrop of worsening trade relations there is the prospect of an iranian deal, that could bring back supply it was a trifecta yesterday driving that price down. I think it was an overreaction, but clearly when you have this much momentum going, its hard to stop. Well show viewers some of the stocks later on at the end of the show, y theres a lot of concern that this will slowdown one of the hottest areas of the American Economy, the shale oil boom. The Permian Basin is still growing like crazy the Permian Basin alone, the west texas region and new mexico, its one of the top five Oil Producers in the world by itself its a huge, huge issue. Also keep in mind while some of these companies, chevron, exxon, they report later today, they continue to reduce costs so they can weather a 55 or 60 price. They are in much stronger positions than they were three, four years ago its going to be a very, very interesting dynamic into what these companies can continue to do also keep in mind a lot of them have debt. A lot of debt. A lower interest to your point, that does help these guys. If the fed is cutting, they can weather a lower wti price better than they could at 3 . Well find out. Some of these stocks fell 10 , 20 yesterday. Kyle cooper, great stuff thanks for joining us. Thank you. Coming up, will the threat of new tariffs derail the 1 147 billion kitchen and bath industry all those renovations you do, will they be put on hold or can a strong consumer weather the storm . Well speak with a man who knows next thats what happens in golf nothiand in life. Ily. Im very fortunate i can lean on people, and that for me is what teamwork is all about. You cant do everything yourself. You need someone to guide you and help you make those tough decisions, thats Morgan Stanley. Theyre industry leaders, but the most important thing is they want to do it the right way. Im really excited to be part of the Morgan Stanley team. Im justin rose. We are Morgan Stanley. I was on the fence about changing from a manual to an electric toothbrush. But my hygienist said going electric could lead to way cleaner teeth. She said, get the one inspired by dentists, with a round brush head. Go pro with oralb. Oralbs gentle rounded brush head removes more plaque along the gum line. For cleaner teeth and healthier gums. And unlike sonicare, oralb is the First Electric toothbrush brand accepted by the ada for its effectiveness and safety. What an amazing clean ill only use an oralb oralb. Brush like a pro. Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. Did you know those kitchens and baths that you build and remodel are a 1 157 billion business every year is that at risk of another 10 tariff that can come on darcey. I had know idea all those kitchens and baths added up to 1 157 billion when you heard about the tariffs, is your industry at risk we did this index with john burns real estate consulting, it has given us a chance to stay on the pulse of the market. Labor is really the number one headwind more than tariffs yeah. Availability of labor. 50 of members say the next quarter will get better. 35 say it will remain the same. When did you do that survey i assume before yesterday at 1 30 p. M. . Exactly this incremental 10 , time will tell what that does. Our members have been thinking about how to react consumers, manufacturing lets say youre at home now. Interest rates are low the you say i time to refinance. Lets do that bathroom we always wanted you get a quote from a contractor, call it 20,000 bucks. That contractor may come back and say bill, remember that contract for 20,000, now its 22,000 because of all the tile, the faucets, the sinks im buying, thats going up. Were seeing the decisions of the buyer affected that they might modify the choice of product they make. Bring it down a little in price. Yeah, material and labor is going up, i think the consumer is still interested and wanted to remodel, but they might have to shift around the dollars of what theyll do to account for that increase in costs the original round of tariffs is a year and a half old when those were slapped on, people said were doomed but things have been good. Right now your business and all these contractors, theyre strong they are. We see 4. 7 sales growth through the rest of the year we did see 5. 4 the prior quarter expectations for the year were 5. 4. So down a bit from that. Slightly less bullish. Still positive, still growing, slightly less bullish. In the housing market, when it starts to soften, were still good when we start to soften a bit, were back in again. The bigger problem is anybody, our viewers who live in new jersey or new york, its finding a contractor bill, ill get to your bathroom in six months because im so busy thats the story thats the number one issue with our members we need more plumbers and electricians, and they make a boat load of money ive seen their cars on deck, is the president s tariffs talk going to cause more pain in the oil patch . What you should know about the trade war, your gas tank and jobs and one of americas Biggest Industries its your rbi and its straight ahead. Recommended memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. The mucma fest of summer. Country musics biggest stars perform their hottest hits. And the first time ever. Lil nas x, Billy Ray Cyrus and keith urban perform the hit old town road. Cma fest sunday 87c on abc. And after the show check out a special encore performance of brett youngs song, catch. Available only on xfinity. Just say brett young into your x1 voice remote. Beyond paying attention to everything going on with the trade war, we do not want you to forget that its also jobs friday one of the most beautiful states in the nation is in crisis vermont recently had its Credit Rating down graded because of its maul asmall and aging populn kate rodgers has more on trying to bring in some of those young workers. Thats right. Look behand me herind me here. Vermont one of the most beautiful places, but it has an aging work force, one of the slowest growing populations in the country and it got that downgrade from fitch because its demographics are troubling here the it has one of the highest median ages for its population here at 42. 7 years old nationwide, the third highest in the country. So the state is trying to do some things to get new workers to come live here from out of state. The first is called a Remote WorkerGrant Program it offers out of state workers who do their jobs remotely up to 10,000 to relocate to vermont nearly 60 workers have made the move one man now lives on 64 acres with his family. He said the move has been a game changer. Take a listen. Being here, i actually work a lot outside because its very peaceful so thats one of the things i love about remote work it allows the worker to choose whatever environment is going to be most conducive for their work so in january 2020 theyre going to do a second wave of this program its called a new worker Grant Program. Its inviting workers from out of state to relocate to vermont and work for Companies Based here one of those companies, darn tough stocks, a family owned business we visited their facility yesterday. Well tell you more about the next wave of this program that will hopefully bring younger workers to the state kate rogers, what a beautiful shot up there. Gorgeous stuff thank you very much. How important really is todays job number lets bring in bruce kasman from Jpmorgan Chase ill probably get fired after this question. Usually the jobs number is like our top story. Its like this huge thing. I wonder with the trade fight, the fed, does the jobs number today matter at all . Of course it matters, were trying to figure out how the economy moves into the second half of the year, i think the signal from the jobs report is that were still doing well. Of course the issue is really how are we going to be affected by a new round of tariffs. The tariffs themselves are so small i dont think this matter. Its about the issue of Business Confidence, not just in the u. S. But globally thats been getting hurt over the last year and is likely continuing here. This is really a situation, bruce, where main street and wall street are diverging. Main street, we want a strong jobs number and a strong u. S. Economy. But if we get a strong jobs number it might take the fed further off the table. Is the best thing for the market, for the wall street economy to actually have a weak jobs number so it puts september more in play i dont think so. I think whats best is that the economy grows. Its the case that the fed is sensitive to the data here i think if we see, as were expecting, an economy growing at a modest pace, somewhere at 1. 5 , 2 , inflation below 2 , these trade concerns continuing to linger, we will get another fed cut in september you do . Yes because we need one or because of pressure from 1600 pennsylvania avenue . I think if we see pressure from 1600 pennsylvania avenue, it will be from the tariffs, but its prudent to give extra support for an economy that is at risk largely because of developments on the global scene. The trade fight, were trying to figure out how that factors in to the fed. Do you think if youre jay powell, sitting chamomile tea in front of the fireplace, do you think i need to cut rates again because we have no idea what this additional 10 tariffs, if we get them, will do to the consumer i think he disappointed some people this week by moving only 25 basis points. So in a certain environment i think the fed moves carefully. But i think if that uncertainty persists up through the september meeting, hes probably going to make the decision he wants to take another step next most important big data point for you outside of the tariffs and jobs number is what . Well, i think i would be watching Business Confidence here weve had a hit. Weve seen Capital Spending basically stall. I think the big issue here from the tariffs and more generally from the dynamic in the economy is to what degree is that continuing to what degree is that drag building as we move through the summer bruce kasman, great stuff great analysis have a terrific day. See you soon its time for your morning rbi. The most random but interesting thing you will hear today has to do with pain in the oil patch. When the president tweeted about tariffs, oil prices collapsed. That may sound like good news because you will get cheaper gas for your car but remember theres a darker side to that slide the fate of many oil and Gas Companies could look more precarious look at these stock price moves just yesterday that you might have missed. Whiting petroleum fell 38 yesterday. Concho resources, 22 yesterday. Oasis, 13 yesterday in fact, on average the stock price of a Company Operating in north dakota fell 12 . In the past year the average return on an oil and gas company in texas is now a loss of 43 . Capital is being wiped out trump may not care about the stock market or china, but maybe somebody cares about the millions of jobs that could be at risk, the american shale boom ends up stuck in a trade war tar pit. Thats it for Worldwide Exchange. Squawk box begins now. Good morning markets in trade tariff turmoil. Global stocks around the world reeling as President Trump reignited the u. S. china trade war threatening a new 10 tariff on 3 300 billion in chinesemade goods. China responding to the president overnight saying its not afraid of fighting a trade war and threat ing new couenninw countermeasures of its own todays jobs data may make powell rethink his one and done strategy, if thats what he has. Its august 2, 2019, qsquawk box begins right now. Live from new york where business never sleeps, this is squawk box. Good morning welcome to squawk box on cnbc. We are live from the Nasdaq Market site in times squarement we start with the markets reaction to the news that President Trump is planning to slap 10 tariff on the remaining 3 300 billion in china made goos that are not already tariffed. The dow went from up 311 points to down 280 points on this news. Well show you how things stand now. This morning u. S. Equity futures are indicated lower again. Dow futures down by 85 points. S p futures down by 14 the nasdaq is off by 58 points this is just the beginni