Ready to go. The Halftime Report starts right now. Welcome. Good to have you with us on this thursday our investment ranov terranova, steve weiss, peter najarian, liz young is back. Lets begin with the market. Stocks coming off the worst day in two months, some because of those two words jay powell said on wednesday, midcycle adjustment words that cast doubt that the fed was going to embark on a series of rate cuts. Liz, what do you make of this . Down 300, up 300 did powell confuse us . Was the market over its skis i think powell is taking some criticism that is a little unwarranted. We dont see a rate cutting cycle thats necessary here. I dont think hell embark on one. Lets not make it a selffulfilling prophecy what happened yesterday was an adjustment in indexes, some of that Algorithmic Trading so no cycle liz says wont be a cycle. Lee cooperman told us yesterday, not going to be a cycle what does that mean for where stocks go into the fall i thought the idea would be there would be a cycle and you buy stocks so what now . I think were still part of the cycle because they cut rates. What concerns me most about the market is if powell continues to miscommunicate or communicate poorly you think thats what he did . I think thats what he did yesterday, what he did in december, and what he did in his testimony to Congress Last month. Sort of got to get on the page of look, we wont tell you how the sausage is made. We wont tell you our every thought. We wont box ourselves into a corner and let the market take it to the next level so we have to do what we necessarily didnt want to do so hes got to temper the Market Expectations of another rate cut, i think very few people think the market needed this one, but he had to do once he said he would. Move on to the other risks to me the risk is the market goes up, still goes higher, maybe another 5 , 10 higher even if theres not another cut. Yeah. You think the market can go up without another cut without a doubt i wasnt looking for the 25 bips, im glad we got it it helped the market, but the market doesnt need it the market needs to see a u. S. Economy continuing to do well what it doesnt need to see are the democrats, whoever they are, their agenda make this is a horse race for the election. Theyre antibusiness, theyre an anticapitalist, and that would be a great fear. Pete, give me the scoop, can stocks go up without another rate cut or two . Yes they absolutely can. I think part of what we heard yesterday through the testimony i think youre right when we got that cut the market was fine. The second powell started to communicate what he was talking about, the why, all the rest of it, thats when we started to sell off we were much lower we were down plus 400 points before rallying back to finish 330. We made back a lot to of that today. It shows you the resiliency of what were looking at in this market all the names that led us to the down side, those are the same names today leading us back to the upside is it resiliency or point of confusion . Market doesnt know what to make of what powell said. Thats probably accurate. They dont know what to make out of it. So they went back to some of the quality names out there. The quality names are the ones leading us, and thats where people are buying now. Joe terranova, you buying stocks today i havent sold anything bought stocks you feel fine where stocks are . Hold that thought i have breaking news lets go down to d. C ylan mui has some news on the budget deal. What do you have the senate has the votes to pass a deal that would raise the debt ceiling through july 2021 and increase the caps on federal spending by 3 320 billion over the next two years that vote is still ongoing but right now the tally appears to be 62 yeas, 27 nays, after the Senate Passes this bill it would go to President Trump for his signature. He has indicated he will sign it that would remove any doubt on the part of the markets that the Treasury Department would run out of cash or be unable to fulfill its debt obligations so right now the senate has the votes to pass that budget deal back over to you good stuff, elan, thank you back to our conversation algos take you down. Algos take you up. The dust settles you tell me what kind of market you have the same one you had before chairman powell announced a 25 basis point cut. Good enough fundamentals to take you higher or not absolutely. Earnings are exceeding expectations on top of what we got in 2018 to get positive growth listen, 7 1 2 months ago do you think chairman powell thought that he would be where he was yesterday talking about cutting rates and ending the Balance Sheet runoff absolutely not theres no one that believed thats where we would be 6 1 2 months from now. How could we have any degree of confidence that his two words yesterday are not going to be pluralized in the next three to six months he tried to walk it back a little bit i didnt mean theres not this is the only cut midcycle adjustment could easily become midcycle adjustments. He doesnt know about the trait. Nobody knows. We know earnings are strong. The u. S. Is strong the consumer is strong which he said we know we now have unfavorable fiscal policy thats impacting the domestic manufacturing and global growth. Thats not going away. Shannon, tell me, what is an investor to do as you sit here on this Investment Committee i think what were doing and what i think investors should do is continue to think about what were looking at in the second half of next year. And the fact that to joes point, the economy is Strong Enough right now even if we print a sub 2 gdp print in the second half of the year, where is the alternative for you as an investor in the second half of the year . Where do you feel most confident . Its not in the bond market. Youre not getting paid. Youre not getting paid to go out further than 2 1 2 years on the yield curve. Valuations are attractive, well talk about that later hopefully, but i think from an investment perspective that quality bias were seeing in the names being bought up today, that will continue to be consistent. In a slow growth environment which is what were facing the back half of the year, you want to own Quality Companies that have a competitive advantage earnings good enough, liz, to take the market higher i want to go back to a point joe made i dont know this is the same market we had before the cut before the cut the market was up 20 because we were expecting cuts we were expecting a lot of support from the fed now the market has to transition i agree we can still go up from here i dont think well see another 20 for the rest of the year we can still grind higher, maybe 5 is reasonable we need to do it on the back of Something Else earnings are mixed i dont know theyre strong. Average Earnings Growth is better than thought but i think we expect that. We expect us to always be better than we estimated. That doesnt really garner reaction anymore average Earnings Growth is 6 to 6. 25 . Were expecting fullyear 2019 to be 2. 6 thats below average i wouldnt say theres a strong momentum in earnings to drive us through. We are expecting the back half of the year to be stronger than the first half thats positive. We need the market to pay more attention to economic fundamentals, not so much to Monetary Policy. Joe, liz makes good points. The market ran up on anticipation of, you got to believe, more than 25 basis points of a cut. If its not going to get the full, at least three the market priced in three what do you have . Whats the justification for stocks being where they are . If they got here on thepremise of three cuts, if youre only getting one cut, dont we need to rethink where we are . Thats making the assumption that we got here on the prem me ise of three cuts alone. We got the pivot in january, the communication from the chairman. Thatsversed where we were, the negativity in december the last 30 days or so, i dont see the anticipation of three cuts why stocks are rallying i see it as earnings from starbucks, earnings from apple, earnings that are telling a story that is not as apocalyptic as what i heard six months ago i would say that first of all, we never know why the market is where it is. We can all make these conjectures. Everybody can point to different facts and charts you have to believe the fed anticipation played a huge role. Do believe you have to Pay Attention to Monetary Policy we saw that in december and january. For me its the fact that the fed is not embarking on a rate tightening cycle rates are historically low i dont think anybody invested in the market a year ago because they perceived the fed could go three times. So they kept going in. True the market is relatively flat the fed is addicted to cheap money. Everyone is the more it gets, the more it likes it whether you need it or not we have cheap money rates have been historically low for a long period of time. Nobody is talking about a lack of capital or available funds. Theyre there. What would damage the market is not if the fed doesnt cut if we got three cuts right now, say 75 bips, the market would trade up a bit and then down because theres no more to come. I think the fact that we have not done everything and that were not tightening is enough to keep the market going thats what kills markets, tightening lets entertain the question, is the market reading Jerome Powells message correctly lets ask former dallas fed president Richard Fisher who joins us from Colorado Springs good to see you again. How do you like the background love it im sure youre loving it out there as well. About to go on a golf course but im here talking to you. Appreciate that you tell me, down 300, up 300, did your friend jay powell mess this up yesterday in the message . Former philly president plosser said he muddled his message. What do you say . I always think having sat at that table for ten years, i always think of Mickey Mantles great quote when he finished playing baseball, went up to the broadcast booth, saying i didnt realize how easy it was to play the game until i got into the broadcast booth. Unless youve been a participant Charlie Plosser was, i was, i think were too harshly critical here. Were trying to parse every word and gesture. The economy is doing fine as was just mentioned the fed is not driving the yield curve here look how rates have come down even after pairing off the Balance Sheet. If you look at the tenyear, its below 2 today. Why do you think that is its because were in an attractive place to be these rates are attractive to underpin equity markets. And the shortterm rate cut, i think they just gave back what they imposed in december i would have probably dissented. I would have sided with Eric Rosengren of boston and kansas city and i think it shows a couple things it was important that we had two dissents theres no true consensus now, or at least the majority opinion is there, but not all in on where the economy is those two are very good thought leaders, particularly rosengren is one very good thought leader that the committee has had and will continue to be. And theres another aspect to the benefit of their having to dissented which sends a signal to the president of the united states, this is an independent body he has no control over the Bank President s, he doesnt nominate them, the senate doesnt confirm them, theyre independent thinkers one thing i find interesting it wasnt long ago on this show we were talking about 50 basis points now its like they have amnesia on those points. The second is because other Central Banks are ratcheting down, more negative Interest Rate policy making, what i consider puric self defeating Monetary Policy that the fed should follow. Im reminded, whenever i hear that, every time i try to do something stoupid that my brothr bobby did when we were little boys f bob yu puts hby puts his the toaster, would you the answer is no theres no reason the fed should keep cutting like the ecb or japan. Im not critical of powell here. He may have muddled the message. One of the problems is theyre doing a press conference after every single meeting his choice. Thats a tough thing to do time after time after time mario draghi was exceptionally good at it, explaining terrible Monetary Policy. Lets give powell a break here the 300 up and 300 down just indicates to me what are markets . Theyre manicdepressive mechanisms i operated a hedge fund that did well for ten years, we knew there would always be trading opportunities. But communication is a key part of what jay powell does i didnt think he did that badly yesterday. I really didnt. Yesterday is not only example i was going to use what happened in december . You used Mickey Mantle as your thing. Some people are taking what he has done recently like yogi berra, when you go to the fork, take it. What does that mean . Look, its so easy to criticize the central bank, particularly people that have never been a central banker. Cut him some slack the point is its policy policy is geared towards the real economy not financial markets. We all like to think theyll do what we market operators or what you market operators want, thats not the way it works. Its to get the real economy correct. Not to have inflation or deflation keep employment at the maximum or optimal level thats the purpose of the Federal Reserve and the central bank one point made earlier by your panel is a good one. The economy continues to do well the markets will do well powell said yesterday that the economy is doing well. Thats not even why they made their move its more of an insurance thing. You tell me, you say its about the policy what is midcycle adjustment . What does that mean to you i actually think its an encouraging statement. If were midcycle, we have further upside to growth it may not be as robust as it has been it means were i dont necessarily agree with this in the middle of an economic cycle. I think were closer to the end of a cycle but not on the eve of recession. Thats what midcycle means i thought it was an encouraging sign we have further run rate on economic growth. Look at personal spending in june, it was up 4. 1 consumption drives our economy look at these rate i cant think of a single business, maybe the panel can, small, large, public, private that feels theyre under financial duress and markets are not helping them and that credit is not available. Cant think of one how many cuts do you think will happen . Even Steve Liesman has been saying has part of the communication issue with the fed is that they did nothing on multiple opportunities that they had to walk the market back from the idea that theres going to be three cuts. Nothing. On numerous occasions, whether it was interviews with steve, the fed chair himself, in speeches whats up with that . I dont know. You all had a good interview with Eric Rosengren about two years ago. You have to think about who is at table and who votes he was articulate on this, it wasnt required or necessary that was his view. If you look at who is a thought leader at that table, hes one of the grade thought leadeat th. You have to play according to the real economy we had moments where we had economic weakness appear to be the case yet we have aroar back on personal spending here the unemployment claims are not that great we still have full employment in every category so i heres what i worry about. With all due respect to the great market operators at the table, they hear what they want to hear, not whats being said the market is so hooked on cheap money that they want to hear it will continue to stay that way or get cheaper i would suggest that the yield curve is not being driven by the fed. Its not being driven more than one year out by the fed, rates keep going down. Who is doing that . Investors that find the rest of the world to be enormously unattractive and the u. S. To be very attractive in terms of nominal yields money is flowing in here thats good for us and our economy. Let me ask you plainly, did Jerome Powell make a mistake yesterday by cutting rates it sounds to me youre having trouble coming to grips with the idea of an insurance cut no. I would have voted against it. Im not at table anymore i think the economy is fine and it wasnt a mistake. It wasnt as much as people had hoped and prayed for also it did not indicate that it may not be just one and done theres very few coins in the feds purse right now. I would be very, very careful to spend out of that sparse little purse of only maybe eight more cuts possible or seven i wouldnt spend those coins unless i could see the potential of a recession hes obviously worried somewhat about trade policy and tariffs. Good point. Do you think he needs to go more out of his way to say it . Hes taken all this blistering criticism from the president why doesnt he just come out and say, you know what everything is great, we dont need to cut the rates, but well do it because of the president s trade policy has business concerned, its showing up in some of the numbers. Maybe not the ones we generally look at traditionally but were concerned. Why doesnt he come out and explicitly say it . I wish he would say the following, even if we cut rates 100 basis points it wouldnt quell the concerns about supply chains, all the turbulence that comes from a protectionist trade policy when you think about it, Monetary Policy has no way to offset the angst that is in the manufacturing and Distribution Community and the supply chain community. I would just make that clear we cannot do anything to offset these trade policies being pursued by our country you have to believe he wants to say it. It wouldnt make a bit of difference if they cut 50, 57 or 100. You still would have concerns about supply chains, where to locate ro tuck shproduction fac. I was a trade representative for four years, i saturday at the fomc for ten years one more strike and youre out. Yeah. But theres no way Monetary Policy can offset the concerns these trade initiatives have raised in the business community. It doesnt equate. I would say that, but im not Jerome Powell. I respect his unique role that he has to play and the way he has to guide himself through all the land mines in washington, d. C. Being he doesnt want to necessarily reciprocate and join this fight that the president seemsinitiating with him. Thats what youre saying. Yeah. Again, i think hes very careful about saying that, you know, hes not getting involved with fiscal policy or trade policy. Thats not his role. He sticks to Monetary Policy but again Monetary Policy can jcannot offset the concerns about the trade. That needs to be made clear. The president s reaction really to the decision was not as harsh as i expected. I expected him to go after powell and not be able to control his committee, have two dissents when you think of what trump said thus far about the meeting, its pretty mild give it time. I was just going to say that. This could just be the beginning. Shannon has a question for you sure. I think the challenge for economists now is were seeing the difference between things like pmi data and the retail spending data that you talked about. Thats going to persist. How do we grapple with the fact that things like leading Economic Indicators are pointing to a slowdown but thats contingent on resolution of trade. How do we look at that i think theyre right the pmi is still positive, above 50 there are all kinds of counterforce within our economy. One thing i do think is an overemphasized sector is manufacturing. Its only 11 of our economy u. S. Economy is driven 70 by consumption an services. We have an abundance of excess data in the manufacturing sector, we have an abundance of excess data in the ag sector, even more than in manufacturing. So theres an overemphases on manufacturing. Its not unimportant, but you have to keep in mind that pmi, which is weakening but still above 50, its only 11 of the economy. Im not dismissing it entirely, but if you put a gun to my head, which i hope you dont, in terms of focusing on one variable it would be unemployment claims employment data. When we have strong employment it leads to more confidence. Look where our savings rated is . People are consuming like crazy, our savings rate is way, way up. Almost historically high that gives you a lot of buying power to quell a little bit of softness in the labor market and weakness in the economy. But were in a really nice place now. I just think the fed should gear policy towards maintaining that nice place i think economists have to be very careful about confusing what happens in markets, which are not unimportant, but confusing whats happening in markets versus whats happening in the real economy. Right now the real economy is still doing pretty well. As i think you mentioned earlier in the show. Theres every reason to believe that richard, ill say goodbye good to see you. Enjoy your time out in that beautiful part of this great country. Talk to you soon thanks for having me on lets open it up to the table. Liz young . I dont know where to start i agree with a lot of the points he made. The first one being i dont think powell did that bad of a job. I think he realizes people are hanging on his every word so hes careful about every word. When he sees people are reacting to something and interpreting it a certain way, he tries to fix it and say thats not really what im saying. We have to take responsibility for the interpretation of that secondly, i dont think he had much of a choice but to cut rates. Before we did this, the market was pricing in 100 chance of a cut, if he didnt do it, financial conditions would have tightened to a point that we wouldnt have been able to recover quickly. Isnt that his fault . Isnt that his fault that his messaging got the market to a point where you had 100 chance that he was going to cut and 50 , 75 chance that he would cut another time he didnt do a bad job yesterday. December, maybe not the best communication. It was also his testimony to congress where he got the market to that 100 chance. What richard was talking about, he was talking about essentially ill put it in an easy way, he talked about it being a Football Player on the field is completely different than not being on the field. When you watch it on tv, its easy powells communication was the problem. That was plain and simple i think richard would agree the communication of what the fed was doing, how theyre looking at it Going Forward was not clear. Because of that, thats why we saw the reaction we did. Today you see this nice bounce back did it kill everything clearly it did not especially if we can make up that 330 that we lost yesterday. Volatility is from 12 to 16 and above. Thats coming back in. It just takes time we talked about that yesterday on the 5 00 show give it time well see how this is interpreted. I added to some positions yesterday because it gives you the opportunity to add ifrnlt want the na i want the names after the break. Heres whats coming up a double upgrade for Restoration Hardware why bank of america says it is time to buy. And pete it tracking unusual activity in the Options Market his latest trade straight ahead. And our experts are ready to answer your questions. The Halftime Report with scott wapner and the traders is back in two minutes going to go down. Youre my sidekick. Aint nobodys sidekick. Hey boys. The fate of the world is in your hands and you cant even get along. Pretty disappointed right now. You want a sidekick . Im gonna find you one. See that guy over there . Hes too big. Look at you two. Bickering like a couple of old ladies. Woo welcome back im sue herera, here is your cnbc news update. A regional gas pipeline ruptured in kentucky causing a massive explosion that killed one person, hospitalized five others and forced the evacuation of a nearby Mobile Home Park some of the structures were completely consumed by the blaze. The next phase of this effort will be to identify folks that are missing or that are unaccounted for. At this point i think theres five to seven persons that we dont actually know their whereabouts. Hundreds of financial workers joined a flash mob in hong kong to voice their anger at the government of carrie lam and called for greater democratic rights and accountabilities. Many participants carried umbrellas and torchs and a typhoon made landfall in Southern China causing heavy flooding parts of the region are expecting rain totals of up to 8 inches luckily so far no casualties have been reported thats the news update at this hour scott, back to you thank you very much you mentioned before the break the stocks im buying. Give me one. I bought twitter today. A little lumina, any time lumina gets bebelow, i like to add. I bought some boeing back. I think thats a great stock Going Forward. Twitter i bought pete talked about unusual activity this stock is at the highest level since july of 18. Purely momentum trade not a valuation trade. Its a shortterm trade. Im going to be there for about, oh, 90 seconds i was going to say hours . Thats purely all it is the stop is where i bought it. If it goes below, im gone its something to do today want to ask about ibm. There was a time you were negative on the stock. There was time you bought the stock. With noticed that ibm is one of the best dow performers in the month of july, its up 6 . It was resumed overweight at Morgan Stanley 170 is the price target. About 20 bucks yeah. This is about where i sold it. I bought it at like 155. Sold it at 152 i will guess youve been critical of ginni rometty. I still am. Her record speaks for itself i would guess Morgan Stanley is an adviser in the red hat deal i would take that with a grain of salt. They say investors are missing the meaningful acceleration in the ibm Core Revenues you bought the stock before. Why . There was a hint of Revenue Growth i thought it would be there. Im not happy with the red hat acquisition. Thats where youre totally wrong. Youre completely wrong on that. Thats why i bought more and added to it today. If they were intergrating red hat instead of leading it out there as a standalone company, i would much rather see a new ceo. Which you might shes been there for a long time and for the board to let this this ceo, who has watched a stock go down by nearly 50 while the market doubled, to let her go out for a highly leveraged company and spend 34 billion on an acquisition, you should replace the board thats why im not involved. I dont disagree with what he was saying about replacing some of the members on the board. Youre right look at the performance level that begginny has had since she been there not that great years of shrinkage but you own it. I bought it over a year ago i added to it today. The reason i did, im seeing options in there today, buying upside theyre rolling from september 150s to october 155s instead of doing the calls i added with the stock i think red hat is the disruptorment i thidisrupto me and i think theyll an monster but who do you think would be selected as the ceo to replace her . Jim whitehurst, one of the best leaders in all of Technology Stocks i was dealing with ibm, there was a business of theirs i was looking at lifting out youve never seen such inefficient a culture that nobody wants to be there. They all see things wrong. Everybody has their resume out they might have thats probably a bit of an overstatement. Its probably not no it probably is not that is the the culture is the problem. Thats why i say the leadership ability if you never met or spoke with whitehurst, this guy is unbelievable. He is the reason that that acquisition is a twopart thing. You get him and you got red hat. Those pieces will be unbelievable at some point over the next year or so, i think thats your ceo got a no, a yes, you settle it you own it, too. I think its a yes on the on what pete is saying about red hat. To your point about execution, we talk about this as a need for a cultural shift we talked about it with ge, were talking about it with ibm. Its possible i feel like you see the shift weve seen when microsoft has been able to pivot their business and get good execution from a management perspective. If that creates opportunity at ibm, theres a lot of upside at the stock. You want to give me a name, joe, youre looking at or bought its not ibm. I think they need to do a series of acquisitions to get to where youre talking about they have not done enough to diversify. Red hat is a fantastic company, but that alone will not get them where they need to be. Listen, i think we need to talk a little bit about the performance of some of the semis today. Yesterday after amd, i think we were really placing them in position where, okay, the best days were behind them. You have got overpromise, underdeliver it should have impacted nvidia as well because of the gaming component nvidia has come back lamb reach, 218 today. Incredible turnaround. Guide wire last night guide wire is a name i own. Turnaround there sears it up about 20 today. Who is their biggest customer there you go. Apple within technology theres stories that are being told here that are fundamentally driven that i view as favorable all right coming up, options bulls, so says pete, are betting on metals and mining today he has two new trades coming up. First a check on the s p sector. A big snapback day for the market s p is good for about 28 points. 3 3,008 is where we sit. Were back after this. Mely happ. Theres also angry. Im really angry, clive actually, really angry. Thank you. And seat 36b angry. Youre clive owen. And youre barefoot. Yeah. Theres also apprehension. Regret. Relief. Oh and theres empathy. Ah, i got this in zurich actually, whats the opposite of empathy . But what if your business could understand what your customers are feeling. And then do something about it. You can turn disappointment into gratitude. Clive, you got to try this. I cant im working. Turn problems into opportunities. Thanks drone. Change the future of your business. Change the whole experience. Alright who wants to go again . I do i do i have a really good feeling about this. Or trips to mars. 4. 95. Delivery drones or the latest phones. 4. 95. No matter what you trade, at fidelity its just 4. 95 per online u. S. Equity trade. No matter what you trade, at fidelity oh, wow. You two are going to have such a great trip. Thanks to you, we will. This is why voya helps reach todays goals. All while helping you to and through retirement. Can you help with these . Were more of the plan, invest and protect kind of help. Voya. Helping you to and through retirement. Pan American Silver has surged nearly 30 in the past month. Options traders think the silver miner has more room to run, so says Pete Najarian we had this a while back. Those worked out well. Now today they started off buying the january calls, then moved to september the september 18 calls extremely active today buying those to the upside thats a fairly shortterm trade. You can see some volumes there these are huge volumes that were seeing at pan American Silver out in january but specifically the september calls. I had to buy these when i see Something Like this, inexpensive calls, and if we get any move to the upside and were seeing metals move i have gld as well its on top of this pan American Silver, which i will be in for four, five weeks gld is going out until october this started hitting may 31st. Gld trading around 120 now its in the 134 range. 25 different occasions weve had unusual buying opportunities here these are the october 135s that theyre buying today aggressively nice size but there is some premium involved, about 2. 50. Know what you got, be careful, the discipline is there. Thank you the Investment Committee is ready to answer your questions on bbvie, sales force and more you can send us your question or eeustwt , were back in a little more than two minutes. Lets do it. [ sniffing ] come on. This summer, add a new member to the family. Hurry into the mercedesbenz summer event today for exceptional offers. Lease the glc 300 suv for just 419 a month at the mercedesbenz summer event. Going on now. Your daily dashboard from fidelity. A visual snapshot of your investments. Key portfolio events. All in one place. Because when its decision time. You need decision tech. Only from fidelity. Were back on the Halftime Report answering your questions. Shannon, i have one for you. Jerry from massachusetts, crm, would you add here or do you like it for a longterm core holding . Which you own, sales force i think you can potentially add here if youre not in full position i see it as a longterm hold if you leak at i. T. Spending, thats growing 5 this year, down from 8 last year however thats twice gdp growth. So we still think that companies will be utilizing salesforce, theyre the leader in the space, so we would like it here for an add and a hold liz for you, from vinny the outlook for reits. What do you think . If you already own real estate, keep it. If you dont own tshit, buy a b. The buffer from a dividend is a nice offset. All right thank you for your questions as always i have a question for you. Oh, no. How did you know . Restoration hardware, call of the day, double upgrade, bank of america they go from underperform to buy, price target, i mean, from 85 to 165 you did not like this thing in march. Stock is up 10 since then obviously it a chunk of that is from today. Give me the view now you have nine buys, 11 holds right you have a new ceo, relatively new ceo there. Hes done a great job turning it around this was a major, major short. Its no longer a major short so i do like it because the sensitivity to Interest Rates, and people are spending more money, consumers im not necessarily buying on this spike i need to see it consolidate a bit. I dont view it as being expensive. We saw what lululemon can do that was thought to be expensive. It got more expensive. It deserves that multiple this could change the multiple, but again this will be one of the first ones to go if rates go up with the economy they had to upgrade it. They had 85 on the target. They had a choice to make 142 right now there was little choice to do that you have a comment i do. Two things i think it consolidates here and works itself out i have to defend steven. He made that call in march, the stock went down to 84 at end of may. He was right in making that call i was just messing around you guys should switch seats no no were good. All right very good. Gold prices are hitting hes my wingman you muddled your message. Gold prices are hitting a twoweek low after the rate cut. We have your trades coming up next first kelly has a look at whats coming up. We have acceptance, denial, panic, disgust and now euphoria. Call it the five stages of the markets fed grief, what comes next well dig into that. And as beyond meat is falling today, one of its biggest competitors is launching its Biggest Partnership yet. And maryland is helping grads pay down student debt if they buy a home. There well talk to the governor about how that works and whether it is working and how much it costs. Thats all coming up on the exchange. The Halftime Report is coming after this just ok is not ok. Especially when it comes to your network. 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Gold, the rally there coming to a pause after the Federal Reserve cut Interest Rates yesterday. Our traders, Brian Stutland and jim yuria. Is it the stronger dollar or the fact the fed rate cut is already priced in . I think its a little of the dollar and i think people took the fed statement as not as dovish as theyd like and started selling gold gold maybe got a little ahead of itself when you look at the 10year trading under 2 now rates are still going lower. The money printing is still on, and i think this is an opportunity to sort of step in and buy gold on a pullback i think it got a little too ahead of itself. React on this profittaking, and i like it at these levels here jim, if the ecb follows the fed and cuts rates in september, what could that mean for gold Going Forward . I think if you look at gold, gold stocks, the dollar and 10year, rejection is the word all of it, the story has changed quite a bit since this morning and one thing you mentioned, the ecb is important everybody is dovish. No reason to sell gold if gold goes above 1450, the leveled i outlined yesterday, to me its a more bullish sign because it will have rejected those lows for more futures now, check out our live show. Well be joined by phil orlando from federated investors and paul ciana who said the fed just did an inconvenient cut. Thats on futuresnow. Com scott, back to you coming up final trades are rahthestig aad i dont know whats going on. Ive done all sorts of research, read earnings reports, looked at chart patterns. Ive even built my own historic trading model. And youre still not sure if you want to make the trade . Exactly. Sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. Is there a cure . Td ameritrades trade desk. They can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. Sounds perfect. See, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, ive done my job. Call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. Online now, one and done read maggie fitzgeralds article on why the fed will wrap up its easing cycle with one re re moat cut this year. Go to cnbc. Com now that i won the best of i casweepstakes it. And i get to be in this geico commercial . Lets do the eyebrows first, just tease it a little. Slather it all over, dont hold back. Well, the squirrels followed me all the way out to california and theres a very strange badger staring at me. No, i cant believe how easy it was to save hundreds of dollars on my Car Insurance with geico. Uhhuh, wheres the camel . Mr. Big shots got his own trailer. Wheeeeeee believe it geico could save you 15 or more on Car Insurance. Its how we care for our patients like job. His team at ctca treated his cancer and side effects. So job can stay strong for his family. Cancer Treatment Centers of america. Appointments available now. Cancer Treatment Centers of america. [what about him . Lets do it. [ sniffing ] come on. This summer, add a new member to the family. Hurry into the mercedesbenz summer event today for exceptional offers. Lease the glc 300 suv for just 419 a month at the mercedesbenz summer event. Going on now. Welcome back we have a little extra time. Im going to do a couple more questions. Joe for you. From john in pennsylvania, abbvie what do you think . John, dont touch it. Hold it dont buy it . I would not buy it. If you do own it, i would protect yourself with some down side puts. Its a company in freefall. Had some Clinical Trials that have failed. Then it reached out to by allergen, a company that has massive debt and theyre doing it with debt itself. Dividend yield of 4. 6 do you buy puts or just get rid of it . If youre long, id buy some puts. Okay. Mr. Options man, one for you from harry in North Carolina transocean what do you think . Id only play it through options. I think its like rolling dice right now with these names that name has been sold off an incredible amount and the lack of performance is absolutely staggering right now so id stay away from it i think theres better names in energy 45 seconds or so left final trades im going to give you symantec the 22 1 2s, 24 1 2s i like this name its gotten beaten up. Region, uk large cap equities valuations are attractive. Think they do well or without a brexit deal. Okay. More of a longterm play, but, yes thank you for being here. Shannon chevron they report tomorrow we expect good Free Cash Flow numbers. Theyve got a great base in the permian and theyre a better stock to own than exxon. I see as well, mr. Weiss. Just because you dont like stock doesnt mean there arent opportunities. Ibm has their meeting tomorrow at 10 00 ibm. Okay. Cintas thanks for watching the exchange starts now. Thank you, scott, hi, everybody. The stages of fed grief from acceptance to panic and now to euphoria a look at the markmarkets roll coaster reaction to the rate cut and what tomorrows job report could mean and the battle of the fake burgers just got more intense. The impossible burger is Going National well talk to the ceo about his plan to take on beyond meat. And facebooks next move they dominate your small screen. Now it wants to own your tv. Well tell you how we begin