A sales miss and more weakness ahead. Is it time to trade out. The Investment Community is ready to go. The Halftime Report starts right now. Welcome good to have you with us on this tuesday. Our Investment Committee at the terrible joe terranova, josh link and the chairman and ceo of the gobelli finds and chief executive officer of merrill private bank. We fin where else, the manchlgts a manchlgts. First though stocks lower as the twoday meeting in washington gets under way mr. Gobelli, the fed is going to cut, right im assuming 20 basis points and the real challenge is the currencies, the negative Interest Rates around the world are causing the dollar to get stronger so how does and what is the impact of that you think the fed should cut . Lets start there. Markets not that far. I dont spend a lot of time on it. I just assume that they will be cutting 25 beeps thats baked into the market of the for example, we have 100 u. S. Treasury fund. No sold taxes and its assuming that already, so 25 is done. Well, you dont have a point of view whether the feds should thats not true. It is i know you have a point of view of whether you think ive been doing the same thing for 55 years, and my own sense is that the the numbers are baked into whatever the market tells me on shortterm rates on the tenyear bond however, ive been very surprised. I was on a show with you in may and and its dropped again. Its now 2 06 or 2 07 and that doesnt fit in with the real gdp growth however, youve got to look out on a global context. Not just the u. S. So i suffered from a case of tunnel vision. So do youthink the fed is embarking on a rate cut cycle . You going to be with us for a while and what does that mean for the stock market then . The stock market iss to the degree that im looking at the future stream of cash flow and earnings and im modeling in the 6 to 8 over the next ten years on a global basis, the present value of that supports the multiples of ebitda companies are selling at so it provides a cushion on the downside at 2 at 3. 3 at the end of october of 2018 that was proi riding some kind of a he hadwind so at 2 thats an issue. The second part, however, is that it impacts Corporate Cash flows because most companies that have Pension Plans have a discount rate. That discount rate is going to come down which means that the leeblts go up which means they will have to put more cash into the pension plan for the to define benefits and not contributions but define benefits theres always a give and take on Interest Rates, on corporate profits and multiples but key thing for me is profits. You expect a big surge in the market between now and the end of the year because of what the fed is doing i know. There are a lot of elements that go into that of which beijing is obviously one. Britain is another one what is belgian going to do, so theres moving parts i think the market is discounting a lot of the upside. What the market is not doing is sectorwise is discounting a a new infrastructure bill. We as a country need roads, bridges and infrastructure and that will provide a real good stimulus for a lot of the companies. You do not want to be an elected democrat or republican or vote against an infrastructure bridge and have a situation to what you had in genoa you know the fed is going to cut tomorrow more than likely. The question is what happens next whats baked in . Tomorrows baked in. 25 is baked in, and i think they can do it, especially with the core pce at 1. 6 today and also the slowdown around the world. Thats obvious i think the language obviously is going to be important for sure, and then i think we have to get through china pmi tomorrow night and see if theres any sablization at all those numbers have been contracting. We need stabilization there so thats the second thing im going to be looking for and finally its corporate profits earnings will driest market. If they are good and rising and are going up, the market will follow for sure. And you get multiple expansion. I dont know. Weve had multiple expansion this year. I think we now need earnings to actually revise higher, and i know several firms are out there revigz numbers lower, b revising numbers lower durable goods, consumer data. All the data today was good can have sumer confidence through the roof. Yeah. Personal spending consumption. A lot of things are actually not so bad, so thats why i dont think necessarily this is a rate psychth in terms of the fed is going to be doing. I think thats one and done and hopefully they can get data dependant and watch whats going on in inflation because that will be the tell going forward. Why then, chris, if things are pretty good 2,900 is fair value s p . Thats what you say. Why . Markets trade above fair value. They tend to trade above fair value as youre going into the next year and they are starting to discount things like lower rates. They are starting to discount potentially higher cash flow Free Cash Flow is pretty good and as stephanie said they are starting to discount what we believe is an earnings and dare we say a profit driven cycle next year so fair value is just a point in time, and youre looking at fair value of 2900. We think fully valued is 3100 so the problem i think in the industry is we tend to look at targets on a calendar basis, but if you go back over the last 18 months, the market is only up 5 or so, in 18 months time so i look at it on a roll 12month basis, if your fair value is 2900, if youre headed into the next 29 months, whats the fair value then in you think the fed is going to give you 25 and stop, or will the fed be on a new cycle of cuts it appears they are insurance cuts for the what if, and what the if is some of the data which is on the right side of the economy which is manufacturing and on the left side is the consumer the consumer is fine manufacturing side, most of it outside of the United States, and they are fearful a little bit that that can get exported to us. Isnt that more bullish if you bullish on the stock market that its insurance cut and not because things are so terrible that they have to cut. Exactly. Which is why you could get another point multiple expansion. It is i wouldnt call it dangerous, but its probably a fools game to try to figure out investor psychology, so to actually say that youre going to go up another point in a multiple and build that into your fair value. Thats not the right thing to do thats why markets trade up over time and as liquidity goes up, financial conditions come in multiples go up and then earnings follow. Thats why we try to keep it simple, joe, and say as others have suggested, feds will embark on a rate cut cycle as you have in the past buying stocks. Why make is so confusing the interesting question is its obvious after the president s tweets this morning that the tensions with the chinese will be with us through 2020, so is it the responsibility of the Federal Reserve to pick up the slack for the slowdown in Global Economic growth thats what jay powell thinks it is and what hes doing. Themanufacturing slowdown a were witnessing here in the United States. Can you have an insurance cut of 25 basis points tomorrow and another 25 basis points in september but what is the Federal Reserve going to do from then until 2020 as we continue to have this contraction globally and domestically in manufacturing . Thats the question. The dow would be 10,000 points if not for the higher says the president the sped going to ride to the rescue powell on his white horse is going to come to the rescue and begin saving the day. So youve heard from the smart money. Im the dumb money and i routinely invest no matter what the fed is going to say. Just said, might say, who is going to speak, and and i guess to trumps point the fed has been supportive of lower Interest Rates and obviously looking for the wealth effect to pump up the economy and reflate things going back ten years now. Worked out pretty well the dow hit at low of 6500 its approaching 30,000 so im not sure the fed has held us back so, okay, sure. Big picture. Lets look at stocks number one. You had some really great earnings last week and some very good reactions those reactions today are holding. The big gaps in starbucks, in google, in twitter, they are holding. You want to see that xlp, new all time, not 52week, alltime record highs today. Procter gamble, a 4. 5 gap, new alltime record high and 52woke high for colgate palmolive. These arent cloud or software or services. These are toothpaste are and i think youve got a big enough crosssection when you throw in mcdonalds and throw in companies from disparate industries serving different areas of especially the consumer, you could say that things are very, very good, and so im not sure what the insurance cut is supposed to do other than maybe get the tweets to stop, and so they will do it, and i really dont think it matters tremendously were advocating portfolios that are rational regardless of what the fed does its been the right approach weve been rewarded with 15 annualized returns in the s p over the last ten years for ignoring all the noise why the would i stop today josh paints a scenario in which theoretically stocks could go up based on good fundamental news earnings are good. Now youre going to get the turbo boost of jay powell and company. I know youre shortterm oriented what if its a hawkish cut . Forget that the dow in 75 years, 80 years will be a million. Thats thats an early price target. Thats buffet, you know come on, lets sit here in the year 2020 and what will be it . Whats the secular growth rate in earnings on a global basis, and what multiple do you put on it whats the shortterm Gross Margins of companies in the companies i follow are all concerned in the industrial world about whats iadex said in their industrial businesses uncertainty at the corporate level is havin. Consumer, its in great shape in terms of wealth. 110 million net in debt and the debt is the consumer loens loans, and thats 1. 5 trillion versus 400 billion five years ago. How do we deal with that and solve some of these other soft issues, and do i worry about the fed . Im in the josh camp we just continue to look for fourbaergs and really beatup stocks or try to make a return. Throw me some examples then what are you most optimistic about in your portfolio . What are examples of fourbaggers stocks that people are hitting the momos and algs and they always want to buy what is called dynamics. In atlanta, georgia ive been following the company for 50 years. The rawlings controls it, a Company Called orkin, done a lot of Financial Engineering and split off a company. Res is the symbol. Stock hat 250 million shares and selling at 5. 70 if you look at the wiggles, its been 25 three or four times they are in total control. Theres no debt. They are a pressurepumping infrastrucier 50 of their 1. 4 billion in revenues is that what does that mean . It means that short term things are terrible somewhere in the next three years in oil stays at 60 in west texas youll have a stock thats 15 to 20. Youll make four times your money. Just sit there with a basket and buy while everybody else is puking it out. Mario, can i ask you. Take a look at the xop, annin decks of oil producers, winners and losers from anything the fed might do and Central Banks and the biggest winner for extraordinary stimulus for a long period of time is in companies that youre describing its not their fault xlp, a Dumpster Fire of a chart. Every large publicly traded producer endless amounts of capital on wall vote have translated into endless amounts of supply of oil and gas and drilling, and there seems to be no end in sight, and weve had rates going up since 2015 so now its almost four years of that and were going back down. Like how i know there are cheap stocks, and i know theres like 1,000 of them, but how do you buy these things if cheap money was the problem. We started with a hike in rates and now weve got cheap money for a longer period of time. What is the case for any of these types of rustbelt or energyproducing businesses . Basically on the premise that were going in an esg world where we want to eliminate carbon footprints and plastics in a system, how do you manage an environment like that at the same time as a world we have 100 billion barrels a day that were consuming or whatever the math, is and thats coming down as you go more ev, more wind and more alternative energy, so youve got to be sensitive to that. Meanwhile, thats there, but this is over the next two or three years. If the theres an accident, some guy in iran hits the wrong button, by dont want to do that i want to stay with 50 to 60 whats the cost. Now youre talking about the producers. You know, in a world in which you can drown a river of a sixinch debt if you didnt own anadarko you would be right but if you own it the stock is going from 44 to 73. 5 today. So this is an equipment supplier at some point they build pipelines from the areas in which Permian Basin is down, the delaware basin, and they get refineries and the gas thats being produced will be made economically profitable and so the companies with that provide the equipment and will do well. What sector are you most bullish about right now . Just given the environment were in, what the sped going to do. Oh, come on. Weve been doing the same thing for 50 years, okay people dont like the autos. Ive got a company, discounted all the negatives and the stock is negative. 197 million shares the stock will be up 50 to 60 in two or three years, but if you want something new. They are slowing, arent they the world is producing this year 92 million of those suckers. 1. 3 billion on the road. Weve got constant chips, going to ev and hybrids, no drivers, no owners and no cars in the future so is the world changes betting, okay. I got you. And simply the notion that we can take whats hidden in the dark world and bring it into the open whether its in game, against games or on a global basis and do it, thats a huge tailwind so egaming is a precursor to that and esports, but Online Gambling in the United States is becoming extraordinarily widespread so you want to buy companies that benefit. One is the intellectual product that our going to gain and baseball is one. Thats an easy one a public company, atlanta braves, they lost last night 63 but they are okay, 4. 5 games above the nationals. Got to play that one the second one is the whole infrastructure and i like a william heal in london and companies in the United States, buyers of caesars, el dorado resource and anybody who does that. The question about sectors and whether to buy cheap stocks or not, for me a lot of that depends on whether you get a resolution in china. By the way, i think you will get a resolution in the Fourth Quarter. I dont have a crystal ball, okay just the rational outcome and i choose to live my life expecting a rational outcome i dont want to go Walking Around all day long with a sandwich board saying the world is ending. Under that assumption, you can disagree, thats fine. Thats how i choose to live my life look at secretariors like the xop or like basic materials and like financials and say thats whats going to make them real you clear the decks on trade tension. I think, chris, you mentioned infrastructure everybody then is cleared to start spending on infrastructure financials will finance it, basic materials will construct it. When is when is this happening that youve already put through . Well, i just answered your question, and you can say, josh, its not going to happen no, no, no, whats going to happen youre going to get a china trade deal in the Fourth Quarter, and if you dont, by the way, if you dont get a china trade deal 2020 will be ugly for stocks of all stripes and sectors. Why why . Because cap x is going to dry up. Powell just came to the rescue. Puts a floor and doesnt help you go higher and if you dont get cap x youll still get wage Growth Without cap x to offset it and create inflation not occurring. I have to echo that comment, and if i were the guy running china xi, these guys, you know, will have another election let me see whats going on not that hes going to watch tonight or tomorrow night, but basically hes hes in power for x, y, z years. Forever. Forever, so im taking the longterm outlook and im saying what dont i want to trade going to the point, the world has an 88 trillion gdp of which the u. S. Is 25 and europe is 25 and china is 16, but the real growth is 6 in china is a Multiplier Effect on the global economy, so if you dont solve their issue, and they are having some structural issues, that can have an impact on Global Growth. If you solve the issue going into 2020, and if i was the president i wouldnt want to solve this thing until spring. I would really february, because i want a very good springtime when people are going to the ballot booth. Soy would have an impact on Global Growth by having this resolved and that will give you another surge in demand. Chris, i want to ask you about what mario is saying thats such a key point. Does it matter as much if theres a resolution, and heres the setup. When they sold the tax cut, one of the main points they sold it on was were going to have an explosion in economic activity, not wall street stuff. Were going to have huge cap x, corporate spending, investment, hiring, so weve had some of that but r d and cap x are up 8 , 9 over the last year, one or the other and stock buyback activity is up 20 , 30 . If they sold it on some buybacks that would not have been palatable especially the republican base, but this is where it is, and i think people in business knew it would turn out that way so maybe the answer is we dont need this explosion in cap x which by the way is never going to come. Maybe we can just get by with continuing to shrink the floats of Large Companies and money stays cheap and maybe thats enough for 2020, 2021. What are you hearing from people your last comment there about maybe we dont need it and maybe we can just continue to float around, to scotts point before. The fed just said they are coming to the rescue i want to get by that in a second and weve been floating around this trend level between 1 and 1. 5 real gdp growth for a while now, 11 years give or take its enough to keep expansion going. The real question on top of that is that number to get nominal gdp to a level to pay down the liability structure that continues to rise . Now thats a whole other discussion topic i would say this, and i know youve said this 1,000 times or more this is a market of stocks, and for those who think that the fed is putting up insurance cuts out there to save the market, thats not what they are doing. At least you yourself said it was an insurance cut earlier. Its an insurance cut on the yield curve. They are there to right size the yield curve, to allow Small Businesses to understand where their return on capital would be out past two years. Thats the mistake they made in 06. Exactly. They kept hike being into a yield cut inversion so they are trying not to do that twice. Thats fine theres a cause and effect that may be the reason why they are doing it the effect of them doing that maybe stock prices go up because the narrative is the fed is at your back. Thats a great point. The stock prices go up potentially. Its hard to tell when youre going through it right now. Is it hard to tell . We recently hit new highs. Thats the multiple going up in anticipation that the right size in the yield curve leads to lending short, borrowing short and lending long and capturing the spread and adding velocity in there, keeping the consumer going and spending at rate they are which is spending really well and ultimately stabilizing the rest of the world. Thats the assumption, and thats why when i said 2900 fair value, thats not taking into account any of that. Chris, dont you think some of this is earnings are not in a recession which is what people are fearing. Yes. The beginning of the year, they thought this year would be the Profit Growth would actually decelerate substantially, and actually it hasnt First Quarter was much better than expected. Second quarter is coming in ahead of a lowered expectations, i get it and as we progress through the second half of the year with very low Interest Rates, with low commodity prices, low oil, a strong consumer, how does that not help earnings, and so you dont necessarily even need your multiple expansion thats right, and thats where i was going for next year. Okay. If you get the multiple expansion and the earnings to follow the next year, joe said this a few shows ago he was talking about the level of profitability, and its something that i thought a lot about, and if you think about what the fed told you in the Fourth Quarter of last year, with their forward guidance, which they didnt have in the 1990s, four more hikes. Yeah. Now, four more hikes, if you tell someone youre going to hike if youre a business, youre not going to do a lot joshs cap x point is also right. If you get some relief, scott, of forward guidance, that might release what you wouldnt have normally done if they toiled they were going to hike. Theres some who believe to your point, steph, that you could still have a drop in earnings and stocks could still go up. Thats goldmans view. All right. Goldman takes down their earnings expectations for the remainder of this year and next, and they raise their target for stocks, the s p to 3100 this year and next year 3400 and they pull down the, expectations. Thats not multiple expansion. As you get past trade, get past fed and a lot of up phones, then you check off the box, and thats what has happened all year long, that as these unknowns have become knowns, whether we like them or not, thats led to multiple expansion so i believe you dont need multiple expansions because earnings will come through, pull through. I they its the second half of the year, chris think its in 2020 doesnt matter if its coming its coming well discount that six months away. In the same goldman note he does point out historically cutting season is right after Second Quarter earnings are reported this is when the analysts come out for the knives with the rest of the years estimates. Id be interested to here from mario. Do you think the market can withstand a round of further market cuts . You want to the do topdown guru stuff. I dont. 35 of the s p earnings are nonu. S. With the weakness in the currency, the euro today is 11. 50 and the pound is 1. 22. Those earnings of American Companies are having a huge headwind on the other side the companies that i follow in europe are getting a significant benefit so i take a company that says aperatif, the sufficient that you drink, based in milan, italy, selling the stock here and get the extra juice. Joey drinks the stuff big time. Loves that. I do. Well, we all have koolaid depending on which stocks were recommending. What are you doing . Its been great having you here thanks for being here, chris well talk to you again soon i do want to switch to apple and get you set up for that. Reporting earnings in a few hours coming off two straight quarters of declining revenues big deal looking ahead to this report what do we think is going to happen here because the stock has done incredibly well up 31 year to date. 170 in early june its 208 what else do you want . The important component lets think about the companies that have reported so far. What have they talked about, 33 of these companies are talking about tariffs, talking about the impact from china, and i think if you look at apple, thats going to be what is going to be important tonight. What are we going to hear from tim cook regarding the supply chain. What are we going to hear from tim cook regarding the president s comments last week where the mac pro computer is not going to get the tariff relief that they were looking for. That doesnt sound to me like stockmoving information got to hear about iphone and Services Growth. Its iphone weakness which we all know numbers have been coming down versus how much are Services Going to grow. Is it going to decelerate . It can keep up the pace exactly right. To make up for the growing growth in iphones. Especially because the carry is higher margins than iphones very important to the bottom line. Yes. The question is is it preval Services Growth or 16 . I saw 18 growth yesterday from another analyst so the numbers are all over the board. Thats why we need to know. I mean, this is everything. Like, thats the biggest question, and i think its not a question on how weak the iphone sales are. We know they are going to be bad, and then you have to look through that hand listen to what they have to say. Then appless earnings are 4 of the whole s p 500 earnings for this year so the ramifications a little more farreaching than just this one name. Good point. It ties into what you were saying at the beginning of the show about china pmi and looking for a bottom there last Earnings Report tim cook said things look like they are Getting Better in china, words to that effect ill be very curious to see what they say about that and whether numbers on iphones to your point back that up it could be a very good tell it could also be noise because it could be the consumers in china are looking at the overall state of affairs between the u. S. And china and said, hey, i dont really want to buy an iphone in this environment, but it could be an insight and thats what im looking for. Whats your feel here, not on what they are going to deliver. I dont know anything about these types of mobility. Ive got a lot in mobility, but the services have a much higher multiple than equipment sales, so if you have that kind of a shift in the mix, that is a Significant Impact on the multiple much the way subscription revenues are better than transaction revenues in terms of multiples and companies and Like Technology creating innovation has an impact on companies, so i dont have any particular insight into a. I would like to know what they are going to do for new products down the road and what the next generation of the thought process is, but beyond that i have limited from. Do you have a favored tech stock . I like high tech a and betting, but on the other side of the coin from my view i dont look at a company with tech. Rawlings inc. Sells termite protection and bed bug spray and what they do is use technology to enhance the productivity of the route man so if somebody cancels a 10 00 feeding they can reschedule that. I look at technology as a tailwind of opportunity, and its part of the Great American free capital system where someone doesnt tell you to go do this, you do this because its economically motivated. Last time i took an elevator there was no elevator operator and no tolltakers, and then youve got to recycle the human talent into new opportunities so im not answering your question but thats okay. You kind of did you answer it had by not answering it. You always do that. I always do that we have a good thing going with that. We can wrestle together. Lets kick around before we go to brick quickly under armor. One of the worst days in a being lo time, worst day in two years, stock down 12. 5 north America Revenue forecast, they cut that. Steph, you want a quick at this first . I own it. Up 54 as of yesterday and when it opened down 20 doesnt feel so good. And thats why you got out . I did not, and im inclined to buy more. Just want to let the dust settle the restructuring is so totally on track, things that i care about and invest in the story for, Gross Margins, expanded sg a was lower, supply chain. Lower. Let me get through the positives first and then ill give you the negatives i was saying the positives. Supply chain initiatives are working. Inventory is down 26 . Okay international, asia up 30 and international up double digits, i think 17 so the one blemish is north america and i understand its a very important market for under armour, and thank weaker than expected because they are not discounting as much because thats what their game plan was all along. Thats what im saying. With you on that. I think it will take some time and thats the reason why the stock is down because of the north america blip. You like the story so much, 12 discount today, do you buy more i was buying at 15 a year ago so its not like its a total bargain to me, but i do think the reaction is overdone and thats been the theme in my mind this quarter across the board. They are overreacting to a whole slew of companies, and im buying on the weakness im just this is a big move and its a very volatile stock. Let the dust settle a little bit. I think so. Good stuff. Off and running, heres what else is coming up on the Halftime Report. Double downgrade. Two firms cutting their ratings on pfizer. The desk debates it in our call of the day plus Mario Gabelli and the rest of the Investment Committee is ready to answer your questions to reach us if to cnbc. Com halftime or tweet out halftimereport using the hashtag ask halftime. Investors are pricing in a rate cut at least 25 basis points tomorrow. According to our data partners at kensho since 1990 theres been other cuts when the s p has been within 2 of the alltime high and a monday after the cuts the stocks tend to sell off. For more go to cnbc. Com kensho the Halftime Report with scott wapner and the traders is back in two minutes dutch is ok. Just ok . in dutch tell him we need this merger. in dutch its happening. just ok is not ok. Especially when it comes to your network. At t is americas best Wireless Network according to americas biggest test. Now with 5g evolution. The first step to 5g. More for your thing. Thats our thing. Xfinity mobile is designed to save you money. Whether you use your phone to get fit. Or to find the perfect gift. Youll use less data with a network that auto connects to millions of wifi hotspots and the best lte everywhere else. Saving you hundreds of dollars a year. The best network. Best devices. Best value. And now get 250 dollars back when you buy an eligible phone. Its simple. Easy. Awesome. Click, call or visit a store today. President trump talking to reporters before departing for jamestown virginia to commemorate 400 years of american democracy the he commented on the current trade talks with china well, i think china is willing to give up a lot, but that doesnt mean im willing to accept it it i think if china had their wish they would lead until after the election and they will pray that trump loses, and then they will make a deal with a stiff, somebody that doesnt know what they are doing a crash involving two buses in hong kong left 77 people injured this morning, the collision occurred near a tunnel exit police are still investigating the cause of the incident and Brazilian Police have decided to dismiss rape charges against soccer star neymar they are investigating whether his accuser filed a false report a brazilian model accused the player of raping her at a paris hotel in may he denied it saying their relations were cons sensual. Thats the cnbc news update at this hour. Scott being barks over to you. Mario gabelli, i turn to you. White in your wheelhouse, the best positioned media stock today is what . Thats a lot of moving parts here what are we talking about . Talking content, talking about delivery for example this, merger between. Tmus and sprint verizon has 150 million customers and are extraordinarily well managed and its necessary for autonomous driving and a whole bunch of other things for speed the telephone has done a different dynamic and they will have 100 million customers combined plus or minus however, Deutsche Telekom owns 80 of tmus and softbank, mayushi son, hell have 320 million shares of tmus and i didnt buy a lot but its a token, and its worth 187. Mark to market with their alibaba and if you take tmus at 82, we think it will earn 25 billion of cap x. I dont know where the think tanks come in. Again, i suffer from tunnel vision on things they are suffering from tunnel vision looking in the u. S. And how a fourth player works globally so what do i like today, sony reported sony is selling at 56 1. 3 billion shares, and the stock has got no debt and they have a financial subsidiary that they should spin off and sell and they are going to figure out what they are going to reengineer. Their playstation 5 is coming out within some in the next six to 12 months they have got 100 million out in the field. Mobility is coming and you see what is going on in esports fortnite i think they should ban it. What about stocks now like disney what about disney . I talked about disney when we bought we owned fox we like the new fox. The new fox is selling at 37 that stock is a bargain. 15 billion of cash flow of ebitda and 2 billion of cap x over the next, so what are they going to do with fox sports and fox betting, fox nation. Disney was created by us it was trading at 110, and iger has had a huge tailwind and the notion of taking on hulu and the next subscription type of service. Like disney plus. Whatever the name is. The stock is going to earn 7. 50 in three years, is a times 7. 50 is 105. 25 times 7. 50, its a plus minus and meanwhile its getting a roar from the lion king. 1 billion. So what. Avengers end game was over 3 million. Meow, is the lion king and the poor avengers end game. Cord cutting, biggest losses in the quarter, moffitt nathanson. They say traditional cordcutting is, quote freaking ugly bloodshed. They say its going to get worse. Winners and losers. My own reaction is not complicated. Give to the consumer what they want at the lowest possible cost to the consumer and the consumer is smarter and they have devices like roku that can create opportunities, so the cable guys sell broadband they are losing some dynamics in the video. Stocks, okay what we like is fairly simple. At some point you need scale and you need to go global, they are right about the u. S. , and the u. S. Is 330 Million Consumers that weve got 7 billion plus in the world so what companies can take their content and distribute it globally and how do you do that im still waiting for sherry to cbs and viacom. Sherry, my friend, my owner, is she going to merge is thats whats going to happen it has to happen. You have to ask her she hasnt called me back. A week until the selfimposed deadline they said by august 8th which is next thursday you dont want to know until it happens. Thats another issue. Sherry, we are the largest owners of the voting stock in both cbs and viacom. We think it should come together for scale. There are some benefits. Whether they are going to say that cbs has a problem with someone blacking them out, you know, then delay it, but they will come to a decision. Look, some of it was supposed to die two and a half years ago and im delighted hes living until at least 100 she has the vote and she has the golden rule. You mentioned the name of a stock, and i dont know do you own roku you mentioned that. About as tiny as we own apple. Its going through its like gabelli Madison Square garden is the largest. Look at that which will be filed in a couple of weeks any money manager says to file it 13f quarterly sorry. Thats a laugher. Im not mr. Roku. Look, i dabbled with it. I just got a bit of the stock. What do you mean youre not mr. Roque u. You made money. I know, i made money. You guys dont next it on the show. I did im trying to im trying to deemphasize it. Thats it in terms of the distribution business, you know, somebody wants a Cash Dividend pay which i dont like, but youve got also some beatup stocks that are really you know, when i gave you res, thats Good Management with cyclical dynamics. Here ive got a company with dumb directors called Cincinnati Bell the stock has dropped from 20 to 30 because they decided to buy a system in hawaii and meanwhile its got 50 million shares and can they triple that now just getting back to where they were. Youve got a lot of interesting Corporate Governance issues that run folding where, you know, the iss and the glass lewises dont know how to vote. Are you acan activist in that our stock has gone from x to y, from 2,500 to 17 n. O. W. So i think i understand that business when someone at vanguard tells me i dont know whats going on in the business and i shouldnt complain about buying into hawaii i do have a serious mental challenge. Where are we. It sounds like youve either got a battle. No battle at all. Battle coming. Im italian i make love. You clearly sound like youre ready to rattle this cage. No, i would not do that you just called the directors dumb. Well, they have got to understand that they did not take smart pills when they allowed a company in cincinnati to buy you dont want to be in california, new york or hawaii, not progressive states in terms of how the Public Service commissions handle the regulation, and so as a result of that to pay up retail to buy something in the worst state and youve got to go from cincinnati to a had a to visit with them, you know, its got problems. Talking other big shareholders in that name . No, im talking to ourselves. Coming up mario on the desk well answer your questions and well do that straight ahead still can reach us tweet us at always use the ask hahalftime we return in two minutes good afternoon, everyone im Tyler Mathisen and heres whats coming up next on the exchange. It could be the most marketmoving, most controversial step by the Federal Reserve in years this as the president once again sounds off on what he thinks the fed should do and why. Plus, consumers are cutting the cord they were just talking about it on halftime there. Faster than ever before. Well take a look at what traditional cablers are doing to keep up, and theres a new ploy being used to tap Financial Aid for college and it may leave you speechless thats all ahead on rapid fire. Ill see you then. Scott, back for you. Good stuff, ty. See you then mario, we take questions from our viewers and we have one from you from egor in chicago do you recommend a stock with a high yield and a lowrisk business i have a name. Egor, sorry for my closedin funds but thats another point i have a company in buffalo, new york, National Fuel and gas, nfg, started 110 years ago as the gas company in buffalo they have the opportunity to take that business and grow it and make significant acquisitions most of the other companies that are in the ldc, local distribution business, mean its more environmentally friendly selling gas. That stock is selling 46, up to 60 most of the other companies in that industry have doubled or tripled. They are also an owner of land in the marcellus i would buy that all right. Appreciate that coming up, gold prices on pace for a Third Straight month ever gains. Are we about to see a major teutkout with the prospect of a ra c well debate that and do that next how do you gauge the greatness of an suv . Is it to carry cargo. Or to carry on a legacy . Its show of strength. Or its sign of intelligence . In crossing harsh terrain. Or breaking new ground . This is the time to get an exceptional offer on the mercedes of your midsummer dreams at the mercedesbenz summer event, going on now. Lease the gla 250 suv for just 329 a month at the mercedesbenz summer event. Mercedesbenz. The best or nothing. Welcome back to the Halftime Report im seema mody gold is on another run ahead of tomorrows big fed decision with the central bank expected to cut rates by 25 pass points. Gold is now at a sixyear high how much could the rate cut push the metal . Its not just about the rate cut. What they say, what we get as far as expeakitations. The most interesting thing is rates are really low in europe thats going to help gold overcome a stronger dollar anthony, what if we get a surprise from the fed . How far could gold prices fall out of range seema, 1414. 70 is the 21 Day Moving Average if the fed does nothing, you could get a surprise if buyers come in for gold for protection. I look at gold as higher in both scenarios almost 1,420. Thank you. Scott and anthony. Check out our futures now show live andrew will explain how to find quality in this market environment and peter will tell us why the fed might disappoint the market tomorrow. That and much more futures now. Halftime is back with your final trades after this. You look for when you trade . I want free access to research. Yep, td ameritrades got that. Free access to every platform. Yeah, that too. I dont want any trade minimums. Yeah, i totally agree, they dont have any of those. I want to know what im paying upfront. Yes, absolutely. Do you just say yes to everything . Hm. Well i say no to kale. Mm. Yeah, they say if you blanch it its better, but that seems like a lot of work. No hidden fees. No platform fees. No trade minimums. And yes, its all at one low price. Td ameritrade. Dprevagen is the number onemild memopharmacistrecommendedng . Memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Im gonna smash him heresright in the face. Kill thirteen guys in three seconds. Im gonna drop kick him. Him, and him. Thats face smash guy. Thats drop kick guy. Such a diva. Read the article on why Nobel Prize WinnerRobert Shiller is calling for a rate hike go to tradingnation. Com cnbc. Com okay were back were talking. Case new holland. Ac agriculture, soybeans. Nav astaur. I think this stock is a buy 31. 100 million shares trading, which is the volkswagen heavy duty market. Buses, class 7 and 8, but parts. Their earnings are coming in from parts, and there will be a slowdown in class eight. Stock is selling at 31. Meanwhile, volkswagen, the trading people are downplaying the deal energizer i love it batteries. One of the batteries they bought was rayovac, concern over the battery market, but they have a hearing aid business that is booming. The stock is 41. 50. Theres like 70 odd million shares its a great management. You have to own it hearing aids are terrific. Theyre going to be over the counter sold and they make the battery, they have 100 million, 200 million in the battery business thats very attractive whats your final trade for us today ill give you my biggest stock because i can only dribble three times, you know, Madison Square garden is eventually going to might get you on the knicks bench. Madison square bakwaquare gan basically, theres 23. 5 million shares they talked about spinning off the Basketball Team and that hopefully will happen. So msg, 285 stock jimmy General Motors reports on thursday they have been labelering last week because ford missed this is not ford, this is an opportunity to buy gm. Josh brown. I mentioned teledock last week as a new position sticking with that one i like the price option. Stephanie zimmer. They have beaten, raised, lost market share for six years which is just about to turn because they have new products and hips and robotics u. P. S. , which is a unique story. It marches toward a high at 135 good stuff. Really good having you delighted to join the group mario grubelly. That does it for us. The exchange starts now. Scott and the team, thank you very much. Welcome, everybody heres whats ahead. A controversial cut with one day left until the fed makes its decision on thetrust rates, well debate whether a cut is warranted with markets at highs and the Economic Data holding at least steady and here comes apple the tech juggernaut set to report profits after the bell, and everybody will be watching services weve got the trade ahead of those numbers. And the cord cutting craze the stunning numbers on how quickly people are ditching traditional cable and the moves that companies are makin