Wapner starts right now. Welcome, good to have you with us on this tuesday. Our Investment Committee here at the table. The ceo of arias Asset Management stocks are in the red, again a day before fed chair Jerome Powell delivers testimony before Congress Amid expectations that the central bank will cut Interest Rates later this month. So much, pete, it seems is riding on that what felt like, i dont know, almost like a foregone conclusion but then you have the jobs report and now there seems to be some question as to whether powell and Company Really have your back or not then you have larry kudlow talking about hes probably safe i mean, i dont know how much you buy. Or is that a negative that he gives excellent coaching in the sporting world everything is great everything is great now youre out of here i tell you what, that wouldnt be shocking to me. I dont know if that is shocking to anybody on the desk it wouldnt be shocking to me. I think that is the focus right now. Trump has gotten out there and talking about trade and he is talking he wants to reenergize the talks and right now were focused and we shifted back over and now its on powell and its on the fed how much will they give us tomorrow i would say quite a bit i think what occurs tomorrow we talked about this back in june and all of a sudden here we are in july and this becomes a subject matter in terms are they willing to go against what the president will like or willing to cut if they cut, will it be, you know, 0. 25 or. 5. Dont fight the fed, dont fight the tape s p may be overbought. You could get consolidation as a result of that, but theyre bullish. They add exposure on any weakness you get because the feds are going to cut this month and feds will cut again towards year end dont fight it is that right . Might be optimistic some of it makes sense might be i think that 25 basis points is probably likely tomorrow i cant imagine why they would raise, i cant believe they would lower 50 basis points and the truth is, you know, the economy, honestly, doesnt deserve a 50basis point cut and who will borrow that much more if we do cut rates so, i think that the market will be extremely disappointed if there is no cut. 5 to 10 . He needs to tomorrow make it clear, josh, doesnt he. What the Market Expectations are dont feel out of whack. Thats at a minimum. He needs to leave the hill with the market onboard about where we are and where we think were going to go in a couple weeks. Right. Yesterday, yesterday news surfaced that a Company Called wework is going to hit the debt market just prior to an ipo, which is interesting and theyre looking to raise anywhere from 3 billion to 4 billion i know where youre going to go with this no problem accessing capital rates are low and borrow money hand over fist no problem i say that. Ive heard this before. Just, i want you to understand i want you to understand, i want you to understand its not really i think it a matter of that. I want you to understand this moment in time this is a company that owns no real estate and they lease real estate from other people last year they lost a billion dollars more than they were able to do in revenue it is unbelievable they will not only do one of the biggest ipos in history, but before then, raise somewhere between 3 billion and 10 billion in the market. Maybe it is investment liquidity. You have junk bonds in europe. In europe now raising money at a negative Interest Rate this is the new safe haven european junk. So, listen, listen what are we doing here are we trying generally trying to do something for the economy because i can make the argument that extraordinary stimulus over the course of ten years not only will not help them get to some imaginary inflationary target. You are giving Companies Money who then turn around and provide Free Services and products to consumer actually, lower rates will be worst for the inflation part of it going to say that. Close to that i was feeling it that was good. It was good. The conversation is beyond a lot of people would agree with josh that maybe you dont need to cut rates. The market moved is that what he said . The markets move beyond that, though the market feels like it wants it, it needs it. Cant survive without it work to raise 20 billion why then, if josh is right, does the market step feel like it needs it . Why . Economy is good president himself says it. The economy is good but theres no inflation, really i think actually more important tomorrow is going to be very important. I think its very consistent in terms of what powell says. But thursday, friday, you get cpi and ppi. Those are very important numbers. Next week retail sales and i dont think youll see big surprises, but those numbers are very important there is no inflation. They can ease. I dont think that we need to ease 50. Never thought we did they can because the global central bankers are all very, very accommodative for the one outliar. So, we can and i dont think it would be very disruptive. If we dont, it will be disrepresedisrup disrupti disruptive lets bring Steve Liesman in right now. Lets get that over with right now. Is powell closer i am dealing with the disinflationary effects of cheap money through the tech channel thats a novel idea it was supposed to be, we were supposed to prizewinning idea. We have the opposite of that. Not seen a single piece of research on that i heard about the idea that you Keep Companies alive that should be dead and therefore would drag down prices as they otherwise would. Heres all that matters is powell closer to the josh brown view where theres no need for an emergency cut, you dont need to cut. Things are fine. Theyre watching it. Or is he closer to the kudlow view which is you have no inflation, so they should take back the december hike, cut now preem preati preatively that is all that matters to the market hes closer to kudlow or brown who says, no need. He does not give a disdainful slap of the back of the hand to josh brown he gives a courteous nod i have this problem and i think hes more incline to cut i think hes going to do it he has mentioned the problem of the downside of money i think the thing to think about tomorrow is what can powell give you . And i dont think he can make a clear Statement Like were going to cut rates he needs to reserve the decisionmaking for the committee. He needs to take what stephanie just talked about in line which is the current data into account. Well, he doesnt have, which is interesting to me. Im still trying, hawks on his right so to speak. There are no more republican monitorest out there that used to complain about the idea, those people are gone. And theres no hawks on the committee. The risk is not so much he gives but what has taken away. You have to be prepared that he cannot go on this idea of cutting rates. He has to reserve judgment for the committee and reserve flexibility for the data you just said it sounds to me like his mind is made up he agrees more with kudlow that they need to cut rates now i have been listening to nearly every word said by the Committee Even while i was on vacation in cape cod i was reading all the stuff out there. Nobody is pushing back against where the market is priced they need to do that if they dont want to see a big disruption talking about what happens if the fed what is, but what is so, youre getting to what is most relevant in this conversation they cut, they dont raise the ecb is going to enact, well, heres what matters. Globally Central Banks have never been as accommodative as they are right now go out and buy Corporate Bonds once again lets say josh is right and the Federal Reserve doesnt give you a 25basis point cut youll get a temporary selloff the Federal Reserve gives you a 25 basis point cut and youll see asset prices rally. That is what matters most. What also matters is this avalanche of notes that were seeing from the investment banks that say sell equities i disagree i see the opposite look at netflix today. You are talking as though that is widespread going under way to the lowest level in five years like they did yesterday on global equities, but not everybody is doing that in fact, they are on an island almost by themselves but we are defensively positioned overweight stocks yesterday was jpmorgan and citi who said buy where i lean more towards ubs is when i see stocks like a netflix, which we have dismissed that i have been one of the people have said temporarily forget about the faangs and amazon trading at 1976 2050 is the alltime high. Amazon on a high today approaching 2050 and netflix 419 alltime high. Some of the names we have forgotten about, they are beginning to participate, once again. This is not an environment that indicates this thing will free fall and well go into a selloff. When is the meeting, in a couple weeks yeah. What if we get our act together, again. The bulls. New alltime high. I dont think the alltime high or not makes that much of a difference to the fed. I think that extreme market moves like being down a lot matters. Its asymmetric approach. The fed cut rates in 1995 and the stock market made an alltime high that day the day they did it. Also 07. Let me finish my thought. The reason they cut rates in 1995 was not because the economy was in bad shape they were undoing some of what they had done in 1994. If thats the justification for this they think they went too far in december and this is a give back its forgivable. Not like people are going to say, the fed has lost control. Im not like 100 anti, but its way more about optics and trying to please the stock market than it is about we need to get money into the economy give me a Single Company that has said so far in any of their Earnings Reports that we would be borrowing money and building new plant if Interest Rates were lower. Two different conversations one is whether the rate cut will boost the economy. There is good evidence to suggest it wont in any great manner and the other conversation whether it will boost the stock market or has already. Im on the other side of joe on this. I think you get a flash from the cut, but the Earnings Report of course you may get a brief rally, but if the earnings dont come along. Get through the fed and then were going to hear real time what is going on and what theyre planning on doing. You have been telling me for months, well get an earnings pickup in the second half. That is why youre buying stocks first quarter, by the way, was way better than expected Second Quarter is going to beat. I dont see negative earnings like some people do. I dont think it is going to be great. 1, 2 and then you see a pickup for sure and then if you get any kind of resolution on trade, well all the better and all the more to earnings Going Forward that is really important earnings we get realtime earnings and realtime commentary from companies starting, well, this week but next week. Steph, you listen to all these Conference Calls have you ever heard in the last year a ceo or a cfo mention anything to do with a lack of the ability to finance any projects or raise any kind of money . Absolutely not. But the point is, the cap x cycle is decelerated because you had more unknowns about trades exactly thats exactly right the uncertainty Going Forward. And that is not going to change. It may change we dont know. A rate cut doesnt change the ceos opinion that there is too much uncertainty to embark on. All about trade and all about china and all the feelings we have been talking about forever and we continue to see this thing get pushed out, pushed out and like i said today right at the top. They are trying to regenerate those talks that they were starting again and again and again. Who knows how long this is goin to play out. The ceos are not going to have vision because this rate cut has nothing to do with that. Liesman has suggested that powell is more on the side of the market view than on the other side right . Has it the fed speaker, powell himself has done nothing to walk the market back from the expectation. And some walk you forward and even when powell has now said i think a couple times, the ounce of prevention being worth a pound of cure. Dont you think this market is going to show us how important earnings are relative to rate cuts we have known for the last six months that earnings will not be very good this year. The market has been up 20 so far. So, here we are. Up 20 there is going to be a rate cut probably the earnings can be a little bit better than expected but thats maybe up 1. 5 versus down 1 point multiple expansion. And continue to have that, right . I think that is the reason why you had multiple expansion and particularly get through fed and then eventually get through trade. I think the multiple can go up higher i was just going to say, i think the answer to what everybody is saying josh and stephanie, the market is trading like a freebie out there that were getting our quarter point cut. Not really going to have a big downturn were not really going to have a big downturn in the economy. We dont really need the cut but were getting it anyway. Thats the market trade. Nobody is it sitting here with sweaty palms about the economy or shaky knees about the market requirements so why are we debating and why you have the different notes on the street. One dont buy stocks because they need people calling up and either buying or selling or preferably both in the same day because thats how they get paid fed cycle, rate cuts, buy stocks period end of story is it that simple . I dont know the market is right about it is it a cycle do we think it is going to be an easing cycle . Is it one and done . Something far more ominous were not seeing how about that, liesman i like that idea. I keep thinking of a zoo and throwing red meat into the cage right there. Thats what it is. I feel like its a tweet. Ill not have that its a piece of meat, but its not like a whole feeding cycle here and i dont think im out youre out how . Back in 1995. Were you an only child and you got anything you wanted all the time back to the 1959 analogy. That was not the start of an easing cycle that was the single cut we did not get fed support until the market and by that i mean the Global Market really needed it into the teeth of 1998 three years before the fed would get really easy and that was in response to longterm capital blowing up and currency stock. The 95 cut was a single cut and the pressure release valve here. I agree with joe, if it were about to embark on, hey, were going back to 1. 5 there is something seriously wrong. Can the market break out of where it is now before we get to the day of the meeting its breaking out right now breaking out already. The Regional Banks. Its a miracle its interesting to see what has been rallying the last few days and look at some of the staples. Pepsi down on the news staples and utilities and reits. Defensive tone to the market and fed and okay earnings season against low expectation particularly in the cyclical sectors, financials, tech, industrial, energy those might be able to rally and take us higher battled all the way back. I have two Regional Bank stocks technically on one of my screens. Actually looking good. First time i could think of that in a while suntrust sti and citizens financial, which i know nothing about. Its cfg chart is like showing something and these stocks have been out for the count for a long time. So maybe this is what that segment of the market needed were you making the case, joe, to get back into the feds which you have been telling people to avoid . Start the show with what some of the biggest names in that group have been doing. I have been in other places in technology and now seeing the early signs netflix performance with amazon performance and i think youre seeing signs that there is money flowing back into those names, once again. I think if you look technically, netflix and amazon look like they are breaking out. Amazon is at the highest level from october and, joe, youre so right to bring up netflix. This stock spent nine months consolidati consolidating. Its now 382 no resistance and been consolidating for almost the longest period of time netflix stock has done nothing for a long time. The greatest opportunity. I owned this stock and all i have done is sold calls. Its been unbelievably tight in this range and finally starting to break to the upside, scott. Those are the names im looking for and one i talked about for a long, long time. I havent bought it yet. Boeing the reason is boeing, believe it or not, you apply volatilities in boeing were great and then they started to shrink back up well see another opportunity if we see this selling kind of continue for boeing. A couple days where it was off a little bit cant get any order for the max. Youre right about that but there will be a point where it will be much more comfortable. I used the 295 where it dropped before everyone was looking at 230. If it gets near that 300 number, again. Free money undermines, fuels free tech. Doesnt it undermine old tech, though not to the same extent. What is going on right now with the banks, we say why is goldman selling and why is citi and bank of america because the book Means Nothing any more the companies they now compete with now like well front and a million start ups coming out of the woodwork to provide quasi Free Services to banking customers and investors and borrowers and next will be insurance. Health care disruption is on the way. Health insurance so, when you think about what free money does and not free money for a year, but for a decade, it funds Business Models that would otherwise be untenable and those Business Models are here to take the margin from the value stocks on wall street. Not just in tech, but every vertical you could think of. And that is disinflationary and you see it in our industry why do you think Deutsche Bank is laying off 18,000 and businesses trading people as part of their Restructuring Plan because the margins have been sucked out of that business. Publicly traded companies that have computerized the entire process and those companies were venture backed by an abundance of capital so, now were saying, i know what this economy needs. More chieap money. No, the opposite the only way the value stocks that are publicly traded in this country make a comeback if there are margins, again there will not be margins as long as youre throwing free money at every start up that comes along and says, hey, that is a Great Service now a Business Model will be an ipo. That is what is going on essentialbankers around the world are throwing out free money. Thats not going to change in fact, the boj actually reversed this year theres no way so we should do it, too oh, to be competitive, sure in what way are we not competitive . Currency. I dont see it. 100 trillion value of this economy. On the year on the dxy. Go back to like 2014 thats when they had the big pop up there it is pretty much thats a year look at that no, everybody look at the chart together look at the chart together what has happened to the dollar over the past four years nothing. In what Economic Center are we not competing favfavorably. That one bump when the fed reversed course. Since then it is basically go ahead and listen to pepsis conference call. They had great numbers and even far better if it werent impacted by the strong dollar. Listen to what the companies are saying i am looking at the chart look at what the companies are saying the companies are in it realtime im telling you. Hey, Peter Navarro says companies are lying. So, what i wanted to make he did say that, basically. To joshs point about deflationary economics the company has also given all of these Digital Companies whether its amazon or square, you know, you pick your company. Twitter. If you never have to pay taxes and you can borrow for almost no money, you can keep lowering prices if its about market share and growing revenue. Every company has the right to do that amazon didnt invent that. No, im not saying that 30 years ago. They could all have chosen and walmart actually is doing this now and, by the way, walmart stock does not stop going up they figured it out. They said were going to invest so much money. Our original Shareholder Base is going to be shocked and horrified and then start paying off in Revenue Growth and thats exactly what is taking place the deal they needed to buy jet unthinkable prior to five years and now everyone gets the name of the game is monthly active users and subscriber revenue and theyre all going to start doing it the market pays for it, too not according to the Corporate Tax base incredibly successful simplifies the story that says dont buy the fed, buy stocks. I bring up currencies and we have what is a very obvious, logical conversation surrounding what is the Economic Impact on currencies, right . That is not the way you have to look at it you have to look at the currency impact and say to yourself, are we now going to introduce into the conversation over the next six months an administration that is going to talk about the currency relative to the rest of the world and the things that it can do to lower our currency relative to the rest of the world . Because thats whats important. The absolute wrong conversation to have is it going to be present its coming joes right. The point is that u. S. Economy is an incredibly dynamic economy. Its dynamism is the root strengthening. Dont disagree. There are companies out there and parts of the country that will benefit from a strong dollar and parts of it that will benefit from a weak dollar dont disagree. I dont believe there is any one total strong dollar or weak dollar that is good or bad for this country what happens is the currency fluctuates and companies adjust. You dont want to get out of whack. You dont want to be crazy about it but within the certain range or tolerance, its very hard to say for this country same thing about oil, by the way. When theyre high, low prices are good for this country. High or low dollar you can be any one company and from a strong dollar and give you Company Benefits from a weak dollar theres a logical on currency but you have to respect and understand that where the u. S. Dollar is right now is going to be a flash point for t thank you, professor. Since were talking currencies just pause for one second. Since were talking currencies since were talking currencies, he said. Lets go to seema moody because a flash on the mexican peso for. Dollar after carlos aruzo abruptly resigning from his position in the Resignation Letter some Public Policy decisions were made without sufficient foundation its worth pointing out that he was known for being a hawk, especially when it came to debt financing. But i guess this abrupt resignation, you can see, assets are responding the currency is down against the dollar and the mexican etf is lower by around 2. 5 so, clearly, a developing story that the market is watching. Scott, back to you seema, thanks so much we broke away because i wanted to get that breaking news in there. Back to our conversation the administration and the president is going to continue to talk about the dollar you have to, the dollar matters and what stocks youre going to buy and multinationals, et cetera, does it not . Anything you can do about it a lot of money that u. S. Investors have in International Stocks is currency hedged. Especially in etfs and thats been a more recent development. International stocks are a currency debt to a very large extent they tend to outperform while the dollar is underperforming. I do think there are offsets and i think steve made a really great point which is that for every reason why the dollar would help parts of the s p 500 or the fortune 500, there are other components that would be hurt however, one caveat is that the parts that benefit from a low dollar have shrunk in importance to the s p both in terms of market capitalization and earnings power a weaker dollar right materials and energy if youre like, i want the dollar to go down because that will be good for them. Right because capital could flow back to those companies if you have a weaker dollar. That market cap could increase potentially listen to this. Lets bring it back i know we got into the faang trade and we didnt touch on apple but i wanted to because petes analyst making some commentary whose picture i left back on my desk i didnt. Its in my back pocket okay, pete. Okay early sign of Services Growth reacceleration that sounds pretty good talk about the last couple quarters and what she is focusing on right now is the app store. If you go through this whole big long deal, it really comes down to the app store and the growth theyre seeing there, scott. We talk about services all the time i also continue to say wearables never get talked about and services make the most sense right now because of what a big portion of what they are theyre getting to be a bigger and bigger chunk of what were talking about when we talk about apple. Still expensive and when you look at what shes looking for it 221 in terms of earning and different ways they have growth all across the spectrum. I dont know if you could say that about right now you can go through just about every category check, check, check. Correct me if i am wrong, wasnt she the same person who months ago raised concerns about Services Momentum and growth yep im right about that. And she was right to be concerned, but now she said what shes saying now is, seeing a reacceleration of that Going Forward. Even though a lot of other folks dont agree with that call price target 231. High is 233. Right we think it can get back to that level well, i think i think its very underowned. You think its underowned i do. We highlighted the sentiment yesterday with five cells created in 2019 and i havent seen that since 97. Sentiment is very bearish and, again, i go back. Doesnt mean people sold it well, i think to stephanies point on the mutual fund side which is significant ownership, youre seeing the holdings which are somewhere around 70 into the lower 60s. So, there is room for people to get back in and create the environment like carl icahn used to talk about. I was literally thinking of that a de facto short like youre short. China discount of the stock sure. He priced it. The negative news. Yes so, its depressed for that reason absolutely. Its been that way for a while not just about tariffs. They have not been successful. Youre telling me if it werent for china right now in the dropoff 20 higher. Yes even with the look at what we talked about. Your math actually puts it at 240. That was really good already said that china was better no, thats not the issue. The issue is, are they going to be punitive. Is china going to be punitive on apple and could apple eventually they need apple better is inest theterestint. Even within the app store. Hang on a second. I love where this is going just dont talk china needs apples Manufacturing Business that can be true. It is true. Which is also to say the market is wrongly negatively discounting it no, because apple has problems that go beyond the tariffs. Apple had presisting problems trying to sell through china mobile the chinese competitors are not laying down. When apple came into the market they didnt say, thats a wrap in fact, it was the opposite more aggressive on pricing and better on product. And apple being a big hit in china beyond just the wealthy people in shanghai is not, its too expensive and not the same backing from the carriers that they enjoy in other geographies. Apples problems were before the tariff stuff and the tariff stuff, yeah, its an issue speaking of tariffs i do want to get to another faang name which i promise we will right after this. Since were talking about tariffs and china. Lets go to phil lebeau who has breaking news on china china trade talks are part of the overall story along with the problem with the max phil and were talking about something completely different from that, scott breaking news out of the white house. Right now the president is meeting with quu tmeet meeting qatar and one of the photoops and an upcoming order between qatar and boeing creating a lot of jobs and military equipment including planes and theyre buying commercial planes, as you know very large numbers of commercial planes from boeing and we very much appreciate it were going to be signing a document today, a very large transaction. Youre going to be invited to the signing. Its a transaction that will be purchasing a lot of boeing jets and a lot of money spent in our country and that means a lot of jobs so, we just appreciate everything we have a great military operation right now in qatar and theyve built one of the great military bases i would say anywhere in the world. And its just been expanded with runways and everything else. Its been really a great honor to work with my friend thank you very much for being here all right as is often the case with the president , a lot of things are mixed together, scott. You heard him mention commercial airplanes and also mention military jets. Well find out specifically later on today if it is a large commercial order, it could be significant for boeing, especially if it includes some orders for 737 maxes that would be significant. But given where qatar is in the world and its important to the United States. I wouldnt be surprised if this is largely a military order but there may also be some commercial airplane ordered in that order, as well. All right well wait to see the details, as you said. Sometimes we need to do. Phil, thanks i mentioned there is a faang stock that i wanted to talk about. One firm with a note today that says it is too cheap to keep ignoring the name, the trade is next. As visa and mastercard hit new highs today, one analyst is making a big call in the space on another name. Call of the day is next. Pete najarian just found unusual action in the market hell have it for us. What happens after tech jumps 15 in the first half of a year the numbers how the run continues up 88 of the time in the next six months by a whopping 21 whopping 21 for more, go to yep, td amerit. The Halftime Report is back in two minutes. Yes, absolutely. Do you just say yes to everything . Hm. Well i say no to kale. Mm. Yeah, they say if you blanch it its better, but that seems like a lot of work. No hidden fees. No platform fees. No trade minimums. And yes, its all at one low price. Td ameritrade. Tell him were flexible. Dont worry. My dutch is ok. Just ok . in dutch tell him we need this merger. in dutch its happening. just ok is not ok. Especially when it comes to your network. At t is americas best Wireless Network according to americas biggest test. Now with 5g evolution. The first step to 5g. More for your thing. Thats our thing. Welcome back, everyone im sue herera heres your cnbc news update at this hour. Billionaire investment and tom steyer announcing he is republicaning frunning for the democratic he joins a crowded field of more than 20 candidates speaking to british lawmakers at the house of commons, british naturalist Sir David Attenborough says failing to deal with Climate Change would result in huge issues with immigration. We will face huge problems with immigration large parts of africa will become even less inhabitable and there is going to be major upsets between now and boundaries germanys largest mosque was evacuated today after a bomb threat sent via email the Central Mosque was cordoned off after 50 people were taken to safety. Germany has the second largest Muslim Population after france you are up to date that is the news update this hour sue, thank you very much. I told you one faang stock on the move today because a big call about it. B barclays is saying facebook is too cheap to ignore it not up just specifically for the barclays call. People like myself who have not been in it acknowledging, okay, this is a place we should have been. 218 was the alltime high for facebook im sure by the end of this segment, it would have made a high for this year im clearly wrong the direction for this is higher a huge, teachable moment for facebook from the not too distant past like earlier this year where the headline volility was so high, it seemed like every day you had a new reason to hate the stock and a new reason to think theyre dead in the water and that the business is going to fundamentally change and when youre an investor and you see those headlines, the temptation is to take them intuitively and say, oh, facebook is in trouble i better sell. The market is so much smarter than any individual person who stumbles upon a headline the, market has figured out these things in advance. The market digested that risk and spat it out. That is what is going on with facebook people understand there is not r regulation for any current u. S. Environment and that european fears were overblown from the start. If you had your sweater on, i would have called you mr. Rogers i like that. But, i understand that. Its funny but its important i think its important for investors to understand that what they think is information for them on the market the company is going to grow revenues 20 to 25 . It trades at 20 times earnings margin upside as they reduce up. If it is going to grow low 40 which is what this analyst is saying, there is operating leverage and upside to earnings from here. I find it interesting they jumped to now. 198 and now is the time. I dont disagree with you. But is there more . Is that what youre saying you always say with apple stocks too cheap i said this about facebook, too. Facebook was too cheap a lot of questioning. Still very inexpensive and they have all kind of different, no doubt about it. But the idea that suddenly there is a bullishness now at 198 when there wasnt it should be. Still could go higher you have to be quantitative, though didnt you read buy high and sell higher. We have a problem the company has spent 18 months throwing money at security so, now theyve done that and presumably and theyve talked about this they got the ability to focus, again, on instagram and whats app and some of the services and products that they can possibly monetize and speaking about adding to incremental margins. This is where it can happen. Its a somewhat, its got a small premium to the s p its a stock that can definitely grow, grow its multiple grow earnings for some extent one of the only games in town i think twitter is making a move here snap had a phenomenal run and the whole segment is getting another look because there is this sense that when you throw a lot of money at security and you have these summits with the white house, et cetera, what it actually does is makes it harder for new social networks to come along and start from scratch all this concern about privacy and regulation, et cetera. It ends up helping these companies in much the same way the way the financial crisis regulations afterward helped the big banks get even bigger. And they are making the Service Better and i went on to cyberbul cyberbully jon najarian and said, do you want to post it he brings up a great point. Why at 198 were not sitting here and reminding, were not sitting here and reacting favorably and im not pontificating and say, okay, you need to go on facebook right now because of the momentum the critics will say were reacting to the momentum no, im observing and explaining the environment and the reason why facebook is breaking up. Petes right the opportunity was when based on fundamentals it was cheap Warren Buffett im explaining to you right now is, lets acknowledge the elephant in the room youve got driving the tape on a daily basis and they are coming in and they are buying facebook right now because of price thats it. Just an explanation. Great thank you. Thanks for that. Okay. Lets do call of the day now square upgraded and stocks up more than 6 josh brown i like this i dont know why i dont own it yet. I should probably have bought it nobody owns square . Im not in it what is up with that . Paypal, everybody, paypal i would trade this. Yeah, jons been in it i would trade this i dont know that its an investment if you already own, as i do, mastercard and you have exposure i feel like i have a lot of payment exposure to twitter. But this is a good stock that got beat up. Not the most aggressive upgrade youve ever seen either. When you look through this note, not like its banging the table saying you have to own this. They talk about risk reward and where the stock was and where they thought it would be for a while. This particular analyst was talking about deceleration and exactly what theyve seen and now they feel like maybe a possibility for acceleration Going Forward. If you own the stock, what aspect of it are you most bullish on the amount or square cash . Square cash venmo if you would make a its going to challenge me. Which one would you prefer to spend on i feel like venmo is a verb. I feel like its going to keep its spot ahead of square cash. I dont know if i want to own the second name. Square is on the small Merchant Acquisition side. On the payment side, its not where theyve done much of anything and they have competition. Apple pay its tough paypal is on both sides and doing a good job sells at a much lower mru e er. Thats why we prefer it. Biig has its second picks and square is on its list. Ill read off some other names im not sure who owns what, but well go through it. Dr horton. Anybody in there, a builder. Im in lennar uber. I own uber. Snap. You mentioned snap earlier yeah, well, snap is on fire snap is the comeback story of the summer right now another one i dont own i saw it break out at 14. 5 and i didnt buy it. Dominos another one joe sold out of too soon. Take your shots keep coming. What about that sold out of it too soon made some money in chipotle. Okay. That was a great segment. Well move on. Is liesman still around the tenyear hovering around 10 . Seema moody and the features now team has more. Our traders today brian, starting with you what are the markets looking for specifically from Jerome Powell tomorrow well, when you look out to the end of the year, fed rate traders are looking for at least one cut, potentially two cuts. So, 85 chance of at least one we want to hear dovish out of fed tomorrow lets see how the economy plays out and data dependency and then traders get a little skiddish and you may swing that 85 chance dropping. That might spook the equity markets a little bit if we dont get a rate cut coming here and now were in jeopardy of a twoyear and lets hear that dovish remark and see if traders predicted the right way one or two rate cuts by the end of the year. Scott, if the market does not get what it wants, where are the ten year headed next if it doesnt get what it wants, well have the tenyear spike higher 1. 1 on the yield to the down side is important. If we do hear what we want and that is that he will cut before the end of the year. But i think, actually, the market, as brian pointed out, is leaning so heavily to more dovishness that if we dont get its going to be ugly for the equity market. Well see a big spike in yields. Also, we have to remember, 78 billion in treasury issuance this week. Thats also going to weigh on the market a little bit. For more, check out our live show well be joined by gabriela santos, who said the fed is running out of options to push the market harder, and amy harder lays out the four biggest risks facing the oil market. Now, over to bill griffin with whats coming up on the exchange thank you very much coming up, larry kudlow stands by fed chair Jerome Powell, at least for now. He also talked jobs and trade. Well have more of kellys interview with the president s top economic adviser also, a federal judge has blocked the president s proposal that would force Drug Companies to list prices in television ads. A win for drug makers or just round one in a long battle plus, instagram wantsia to really, really, really think about your post before you share it well explain coming up inrapi fire see you at the top of the hour meantime, halftime is back in two minutes. This is my headquarters. This is where i trade and manage my portfolio. Since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. Okay. Im plugged into equities trade confirmed and i have Global Access 24 7. Meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. Visit learnfuturestoday. Com to see what adding futures can do for you. Were back Pete Najarian is tracking options activity were going to start with dropbox. We had this in the past. It moves immediately for us, so we were already out of it. Im back in it again today, were seeing them buying the august 2nd expiring calls. 60 to 70 cents is what they were paying for those ill be in this for call it a month, a little less than a month. This name has been in the past when we have seen unusual activity target is my next one. No. Wait, man i dont make the unusual i just deliver it to you, bro. Keep it coming. Im long take a look at that joe finally got onboard. Thank goodness the buy of shift was actually bigger than jet was for walmart in my opinion. We can debate that some time, but what theyre doing now is going all the way out. We talk about the short term paper. This is january paper buying the 92. 5 strike calls. This is all air and a lot of premium. Youre buying a lot of time to go out there i like what i was seeing so i did buy calls and im already long the stock i like what im seeing it got me more bullish to buy calls today. Lastly, neo. This is a 3. 50 stock. Everybody has talked about it. Not that long it came out, ipod. Theyre buying the 3. 50 strike calls in july aggressively 16,000 were bought for about 20 to 25 cents. Risk reward, i love it if i can get in there for 20, 25 cents, this stock makes move, it easily doubles or triples. Is that your lock of the week no lock of the week no lock of the week we could do a lock of the week at some time. Think about it. God, youre good. I think its the shirt today its throwing me off, but still. A little distracting. Lets do some q a now. Bill in jacksonville, florida, what will alibaba do over the next three months . Bill, were hoping it goes up because we own it. The chinese middle class is the size of the entire United States its growing much faster, and that middle class will buy what baba sells and theyre Getting Better about serving them and figuring out what their customers want so own it. All right nick in San Francisco has a question for stephanie steph. You ready for it im ready you think Deutsche Bank will help bank of america in terms of gaining market share, yeah. Im assuming thats what they mean that kind of makes sense. Its from nick in San Francisco. Did i say that nick, you did say nick. Okay. Well, i think you can assume that almost all of the banks are going to take any kind of share, and the leaders in the u. S. Clearly have a better shot at gaining even more. So bank of america, sure i think jpmorgan, but i also think Something Like a goldman and Morgan Stanley will take market share i dont think thats the reason you want to own these stocks theyre cheap, capital return, the quarters are going to be fine, so thats why i own them banks report next week. Joey, for you, from steve in barrington, illinois, what is your favorite fintech stock right now . My favorite fintech stock is not yet public that would be soify. When it becomes public, thats a name you want to own for names that are public, lets talk about the ones we normally dont discuss. You could say visa, mastercard, paypal, American Express lets talk actionable, joey world pay and Fidelity National fis. Theyre going to close the transaction on july 30ling 45 billion. I want to own that on the payment side of fintech. On the processing side, theres a Company Called genpact their ticker symbol, g congratulations for them for having it. 7 billion company, actionable, scott. We never talk about it all right thank you for that, joe. I didnt do it in my stephen a. Voice or mr. Rogers you didnt have to. Dude, so unnecessary. Comedic timing needs work final trades pete, youre up first. All right, so when i look around and i was looking at all this different unusual, when i see them hit more than one day in a row, boom, boom, boom, we continue to see it, summit the material space, talk about housing all the time keep an eye on this name carrie. American tower, amt. Theyre in a big space that is growing. They have a big motor on them because these are expensive towers to build. We go to 5g, theres more demands on the Systems People use more surfaces, use moreidaty, and American Tower is the leader in that field josh brown. Twitter just snapped a downtrend thats been in force since may. Stock failed the last time it treed to get in the post earnings plunge, around 40. If it gets in that gap this time, there wont be anything to stop it. The stocks should run into the election its finally gotten its act together the stocks should be a big beneficiary of what everyone agrees is an enormous spending cycle on the internet. Whats the all time high on this thing 70 something, but five years ago. A long time. 52week high is justant about 47. Stock is up huge this year, by the way 40 is where it fails alt the end of april 40 is notable because when it botched its earnings last fall, thats where the gap started it could not get back into the gap. If it can get back into gap in the new run, its bullish for the stock, and again, i point back to snap theres another name where the expectations got too pessimistic. Its not like the company is on fire business wise, but every hated it twitter is not quite in that sitquation, but theres a lot of potential. Thank you for that. Stephanie, what do you have for me l3 harris technologies. These Companies Just closed their deal, and i think youre going to see a lot of margin upside, better Free Cash Flow generation a buyback larger than expected i think this works joey . Kkr off the Piper Sandler deal all right dow is right now down about 90 points that does it for us. The exchange starts now. Thank you, scott heres whats ahead on the exchange everybody, president trumps top economic adviser is standing by the fed chair, at least for now. And he says that there is room to take back that december rate increase well talk with larry kudlow about all that coming up also, Sir Richard Branson making a big and soon to be public bet on sending lots of folks into outer space can putting john q. Public into orbit be a money maker plus, theres a wall street dog fight over chewy, and then instagram wantin