The market rewinding as the fed rate cut hopes are dampened. Wall street is getting more bearish as Morgan Stanley says to sell stocks now euro banks are in turmoil as Deutsche Bank takes measures to restructure. Did it come too far too fast, and are we about to see a stock rewind guy . Number one karens back, youre everybodys back now gangs all here all here. And the matching outfit matchymatchy cute. Whats wrong, dan i havent seen you in a month and youre already discounting me no, im loving the Syracuse Orange way to represent, people listen, i think stocks have gone too far, too fast, absolutely i thought that, you know, probably 250, 200 dow points ago, maybe 75 s p handles to go. With that said, you know, the Morgan Stanley, thrive beentive. I think theyre going to be right. The thing on the list that concerns me the most believe it or not is Deutsche Bank and european banks in general. I do think the markets banking way too much on the Federal Reserve that is now people think the fed controls the market i think the market controls the fed. But i think were at a level now where if youve enjoyed these gains, you got to be taking money off the table. Yeah. So you just mentioned that Market Expectations about a rate cut. We know that obviously the fed fund futures are pricing in a near certain see of a july cut ands whether its 25 or 50 bips. What does that do to expectations the fact is if the market is going to bully the fed into the sort of move along with the president , then we come into a difficult phase of what happens next in this bull market because it then becomes all the sudden fairly artificial. Theres a lot of economists that we would bring on, and they would say, listen, this is good, the stock market can go up were in the rate hiking phase that we were in over the last few years. So to me i think it puts us in a very bad spot. One last thing about european banks, if you overlie the sx 70, its probably one of the worst looking charts of the euro, stock, bank index, versus the tenyear bund right there. The yield. You look at that over the ten years and you say, theres some real problems there. We know the tenyear bund yield is negative i think we need just take a breath here on Deutsche Bank news is concerning on many Different Levels but the Deutsche Bank news is a restructuring thats about the Global Capital markets business and refrenching into core businesses retrenching into core businesses. Deutsche banks been a mess in capital markets. They have a big derivative book, theyve eviscerated more Balance Sheet equity than any bank of probably all time. Outside of the ones that are flow longer with us. This isnt new news. The announcement is not about the sudden vulnerability about the european banking industry. I think if you look at european banks, i think theyre as well capitalized as they have been in a long time. I dont think were on the verge of a european banking crisis greece is up 44 year to date. Selected a new prime minister. Im not going to tell you that europe is great. To think that tomorrow europes our problem, i think despite the negative yielding bonds, the Biggest Issue is our fed and the Biggest Issue is were going to get more fed over the next two weeks than weve probably digested in a long time when you say more fed, fed info. Or cuts, or i mean fed fed headlines were going to have powell, four days this week effectively weve got a huge fed meeting next week. Weve got minutes from the last one. Weve got a testimony tomorrow weve got all kind of dynamics yes, i think i agree with everybody that, look, the market is basically moved lower on expectations of a fed that based upon fridays bayroll number payroll number does not need to be aggressive here karen yeah, ive been afraid of this market for a while. I think in the last couple of weeks, the from the g20 there was a nice bump there. That hasnt been resolved as far as i know, right to me that is a huge issue still to come, and well start to see earnings im more pessimistic on earnings than i have been in a long time. And so i dont know if it makes much difference if the fed cuts i think 50s off the table given 50s off the table given the job number i dont know that it makes much difference versus zero you think it makes a difference if the get i think it does make a difference day one, but after the initial, i guess it will trade up if they cut 25 basis points, after that im not sure it makes a difference. The market or earnings, youre saying the rate cuts not doing anything for the earnings. Thats the story for me im concerned about the market im concerned about the uncertainty of the tariff situation has created a pullback in spending. And that were going to see that im concerned about that this i mean, this Market Movement today, its nothing its just little bit of noise on what has been a very big run i have to say, kudos to guy who has been all over Deutsche Bank for probably seems like well over a year saying trouble, trouble, trouble its as if they fired him real quickly, though, i think youre sugar coating whats going on part of this restructuring is also putting some bad assets, lots of bad assets into a bad bank the total Balance Sheet thats right. I think weve seen bad bank its worked out in the states when we did it with some of these. They went massively to recapitalize these they took the government bailouts it had to work, okay and the problem that you had with the negative yielding rates werent just having more sovereign debt thats going negative yielding, its not getting smaller. If you look at those just maybe thats too simplistic to overlay the equity of those banks and the tenyear bund yield. But its not good. It s th is this the canaryn the coal mine . Were bearish youre were not trying to keep you invested in the market. Were not putting allocations out. Were basically trying to say these are the things that could go wrong if no ones going to tell you that, youre doing this whole thing wrong. Thats my personal view about it if were going to start im bearish today i feel like its important for people to talk about these things i feel its important not to sugarcoat them because i think what happened today with Deutsche Bank is significant are you optimistic about earnings season . Not really. Okay. Im optimistic about a world where i think the Global Economy but certainly the u. S. Economy when the fed is operating today is not in a place where i think if we have lower rates, a fed that if anything is a tailwind for market, i think in the short to medium term thats more important than earnings. And ive seen this movie so many times over the last ten years. And but back to what dan is saying, look, the 70 basis basis point fall in global bond yields is something that Equity Investors should be very concerned about. I dont think its sustainable and i think lower rates have been a boom for equity markets for many Different Reasons including just how compute the discount rate of owning an equity valuation so im a little concerned at these levels im not concerned about the systemic damage even though it is out there its just to me, its not tomorrow, and its not next week, and its not todays headline see, i hear what tim i didnt mean to say that Deutsche Bank, something changed. Nothing changed except you saw the headline over the weekend into today thats what changed. But, you know im probably in the minority that thinks there almost has to be some Systemic Risk associated with Deutsche Bank and the derivatives book. There has to be counterpart risks. If this was a u. S. Bank, which its not bviously, i think we talk about them every day instead of every five or six days which i think is interesting i mean, im not suggesting its baier stearns or Lehman Brothers but that there arent farreaching aspects, i dont know if there is, but i can categorically say theres definitely, you know, its not is or isnt but its you cant you cant be completely confident that the answer is no theres no Systemic Risk in a nutshell, you four are bearish to varying degrees yes but let me say im always long its always going to be my bias. Structurally cautious, tactically optimistic. And i just one more thing about deutsche and what the guys talking about because hes talking about a real if germany, europes biggest economy, and deutsche, their biggest bank, are under a lot of pressure, it means theres going to be a lot of unit in the European Union unity in the European Union which basically is controlled by the germans so thats very good for bailout and policy and everything that the stock markets love all right our next guest says the rally has been propped up by hopes of a rate cut but investors shouldnt chase stocks ceo and chief Investment Officer at Morgan Creek Capital Management mark, always great to speak with you. Great to be with you. Weve called you the man who called the 20 selloff in the fall and that was right. Here we are back close to record highs. Where do you see the dangers now . Its almost precisely nine months since we had that conversation and i made your jaw drop saying markets could fall 40 we only got half of it now were right back to near levels where we were in october, about in the, flat back to january about flat, flat back to january of 2018, adjusted for inflation. I think were as overvalued as we were then i think the risks are to the downside, what you guys were talking about. I think the one thing that people are making a mistake about is theyre saying that an Interest Rate cut is a good thing because they can use a lower discount rate. But theyre not looking at the reason why the fed would cut rates which is that earnings and growth are going to be a disaster so youre going to be discounting a lower number you get a lower number unless you believe that the next cut is going to be an insurance cut. That its things are not a disaster right now i mean, youre a bear, so you may think that things are disaster, but there are plenty of people who think, you know, fundamentally things are all right. We are see something sonching in the data here softening in data here in the fuunited state, softening in the world, but things arent going off a cliff. If youll find anybody who will say that earnings are going to be great and have a strong recovery even those that were saying were going to have a second half recover y are saying maybe 2020 that youll get anybody to say things are going to get awesome really quickly i think all of the Economic Data has been very disapublic interesting. Gdp has been disappointing the atlanta fed, gdp now is down to 1. 3 for q2 thats way below what people were saying, 3 , 4 , even six months ago i think Earnings Seasons going to be the classic example of you take the bar off the rack, you put the bar on the grounds, you jump over the bar, and then you claim youre the world highjump champion mark, whats the catalyst for this move to the downside . I mean, you can make an argument the catalyst in september and october was powell being as hawkish as any fed chairs been since, you know, you go back 3 or 40 30 or 40 years. Is the next catalyst an earnings season that disappoint and thats why we roll over . Look, i think thats the really, really great point that what were missing now is the catalyst. Theyre their clearly was the catalyst last fall was the hawkishness and powell saying he was going to be his own man. And then doing the powell flipflop. But i think today you were just talking about it, Deutsche Bank could be that canary in the coal mine there are big risks on their derivative book that people arent really talking about. And look, i call it the National Bank of germany for a reason its too big to fail it will be bailed out, and the market may short term like that. But just like in the u. S. Bailout in late 2007, remember when they banned short selling banks and tried to save all the banks . They went down 80 , 90 from there, from there, and i that were already down 50 , 60 this could be the beginning of a really tough period, and give me the upside i mean, somebody give me an upside reason to get excited mark, its karen. Let me throw out one even though im somewhat bearish china trade deal right . That is a case for the upside. Whats your thoughts on whether that happens and if it does, what does that mean for the market two things. One i think the china trade deal has been priced in four times already. I think its buy the room or sell the news. I think the second problem is there will be no china trade deal i was with a guy who runs the china beige book, and at a conference a couple of weeks ago. We were speaking together. He said, look, two months ago there was a deal that china would sign, and trump backed away, and he said there is no deal that the u. S. Can put in front of china that they will sign today because theyre going to make him admit wrongdoing, and theyre not going to do it i think thats going to be a big disappointment when people realize that the hope remember, hope is not an investment strategy. Its a fourletter word. The hope of a trade deal just isnt going to happen. Well, some might disagree on the basis of a political cycle in which trump wants to be reelected well put that aside for now, mark wee you, so weve got we have you, so weve got ask about bitcoin. Does it reclaim highs . Were definitely going to reclaim old highs. Soon . I think what people miss about bitcoin soon or eventually . Well, look, heres the crazy thing over the past year, bitcoin is up 70, 70 percent. Everybody thinks its in this bear market. Over the past 12 months sorry, actually nine months, since we were together on october 7th, its up 70 the best performing major asset class this year. And remember we were also together i think december 13th on halftime, not halftime, but your show in the afternoon we talked about it 3,100, is that the bottom . And look, thats a long way below here and i think were in the next parabolic move that will take us probably into the 30,000 level before we get another little correction. And then, look, theres a great path i did a webinar today talking about the path to 100,000 by 2021 is really quite easy to draw out all right, well leave it there. Thank you. Appreciate it all right. How do we trade this, dan . I think karen makes a good point about the thing that could turn sentiment if there was a comprehensive trade deal that no ones expecting. If everyones priced it not to happen and you have the insurance cut or maybe one or two, then you set the stage for a market thats been recovering around 2,900 for 18 months at the top end. And that becomes support then you get that launch that a lot of people i think larry fink was calling a meltup or Something Like that. That could be the ingredients for this thing taking off from here coming up, wall street turns sour on apple. Now the most bearish in decades, are the best days behind the tech Company Transport sinking but one name is about to take off. Later, tonight is the home run derby. So who better to step up to the plate and give us a home run stock than guy adami [leaf blower] you should be mad at leaf blowers. [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. And you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. But youre not mad, because you have e trade which isnt complicated. Their tools make trading quicker and simpler. So you can take on the markets with confidence. Dont get mad. Get e trade and start trading today. Most of us dont know how much data we use, but we all know were paying too much for it. Enter xfinity mobile. Americas best lte with the most wifi hotspots, combined for the first time. When youre near an xfinity hotspot, youre connected to wifi, saving on data. When youre not, you pay for data by the gig. Use a little, pay a little. Use a lot, just switch to unlimited. Get 400 back when you buy the new lg g8. Call, visit or click today. Welcome back apple dragging down the dow today getting a down grade as the tech giant stands at a crossroads transitioning from hardware to services josh with details from San Francisco. Reporter the team at rosenblatt coming out with a big call on apple. Downgraded the stock to a sell sayingthe Company Faces fundamental deterioration over the next six to 12 months. That new iphone sales will disappoint thats rated the most since 2001 how do bulls respond wedbush takes the other side of this bet says that after conducting its own checks in asia, they are incrementally more positive on iphone demand. Yes, overall smartphone demand is challenging, but they saw a slight uptick in their words out of apple suppliers needham seconds the bullish call, adds apple to the conviction bye list. Says its transitioning buy list says its transitioning from hardware to one based on subscriber and service growth. Apple finishing in the red up more than 25 this year for investors, the question is what demand is like for the bread and butter iphone franchise and how continued u. S. China trade tensions are impacting the company. The investors are going to have a better sense when apple next reports results on july 30th switching gears, there was also talk today on cnbc about steve jobs walter isaac son on squawk box saying that jobs in moments of anger told him that tim cook was not a product person thats tough criticism, though cook has overseen the companys move into brandnew product categories like the watch, airpods, and services. After the exit of design chief johnny ive, two design veterans are going to be reporting to coo Jeff Williams who did lead the development of the watch back to you. All right thank you. Josh lippon in San Francisco lets trade this apple, tim . I just think that, first of all, theres nothing new that came out today with all due respect, as we like to say god bless their heart. Im not coming after the analysts here. The Service Revenues are going to decline for the first time in four to six quarters i maybe thats new although i think a lot of people question dans talk about this, that the Service Numbers was front loaded by replacement screens and things that are not necessarily a regular revenue stream what i would say is this is a company thats outperformed the s p by 17 this year this is a company that tends to swing from overly the Market Dynamics are overly ebuhlients and overly sick lake like cyclical its not going to be good. You have to believe that services is the future of the company. And you have to believe in a services blended multiple that makes the entire multiple of the company closer to 20 which on a 20 times some sorry, around 20 times. Thank you. Karen i mean, along im lukewarm on it. I feel like the bearishness is out there, and i feel like its sort of reflected in the stock i dont think that kudos to coming out, putting yourself out there and saying were going out on a limb. The analyst price targets seemed like it was 150. Without it being a sell without it being a sell but so i dont think its i dont think theres a ton of bullishness priced in here so im staying long. Even though im not wildly bullish on the market. Im staying long yeah, i think what the company often likes to point investors to the fact that their service, their business is growing at like a fortune 50 companys revenues you know what i mean its growing off of a Massive Installed base the problem is, the installed base is not growing, and it may never really grow again. If you have a massive deceleration in the revenue of the services, you get to yourself and say, okay, youre saying best Case Scenario you see 20 times heres the stock thats trading 17. 5 times if they go x growth in their services, this stocks going to be much lower. It just in because we know theyre not going to be growing units any time soon. And then youre going to have to wait for that to happen. The storys intact its still the they own the high end, they own the margin, theyll have a better a better margin blended rate it may be off a smaller installed base Going Forward im not saying anybody here, but people think that apple goes straight up over the last ten years. To a large extent, i guess you could say theres some truth there. Then if you look, if you get granilar, this stock moves the ebbs and flows have been significant especially over the last 18 months weve just gone from 170 beginning of june to 205 thats a pretty significant move so my point is if i think the Broader Markets can roll over, i have to believe that apple will, as well. If you look for a level, the 50 retracement of that june low and recent high comes in around 187 for more on whats next for the tech giant, go to cnbc. Com im melissa lee, youre watching fast money. Here what else is coming up on fast. Heyday transport, sinking back into correction the chart master says theres one name thats taking flight. And yes, thats a hint hell tell us what has him so excited. Plus, its been home run after home run for guy adamis fach pitches in honor fast pitches in honor of the home run derby, hes stepping up to pitch the stock he thinks is about to hit it out of the park more after this. Stand up if you are First Generation College student. crowd cheering stand up if youre a mother. If you are actively deployed, a veteran, or youre in a military family, please stand. The world in which we live equally distributes talent, but it doesnt equally distribute opportunity, and paths are not always the same. Im so proud of you dad. [man] i will tell you this, Southern New Hampshire university can change the whole trajectory of your life. uplifting music . Or trips to mars. 4. 95. Delivery drones or the latest phones. 4. 95. No matter what you trade, at fidelity its just 4. 95 per online u. S. Equity trade. Welcome back to fast money. Transports falling back into correction territory for more, lets get to bob pisani on at the New York Stock Exchange bob . Hello, melissa. Good to see you as always. Trants transports are 10 off the new highs, they hit that in september. The story of transports the last nine months is a story of sectors. First, airlines and railroads, mostly up but not all of them. And lon sticks and shippers logistics and shippers are underperforming. The problem is simple trade and tariffs and to a lesser extent, a global slowdown which of course is partly related to trade and tariffs. Now, the leading shipping and logistics firms have gotten clobbered on this trade uncertainty and have really not recovered to any appreciable extent since the concerns got serious back in october of last year if you look at fedex, you look at j. B. Hunt, u. P. S. , theyre all down 15 to nearly 40 look at that in the case of fedex, since that september High Airlines have been split with southwest and american down, but those are on boeing troubles, a specific issue others like jetblue or delta are mostly flat to slightly to the upside elsewhere, you contrast that with the u. S. Based railroads, that they recovered very quickly after that december drop so norfolk southern, kansas city southern, csx, union pacific, theyre all up more than 20 , the share well off of their lows put it together and since transports hit their september high, they are down about 10 . Thats the white line there, the Dow Jones Industrials up nearly 3 back to you, melissa thank you bob pisani on the New York Stock Exchange guy, i know you fancy yourself a dow enthusiast i was around when they came up with it what does it tell you when the transport index is so divided in performance when it comes on this subsectors im not trying to be glib, i think 50 years ago i told you more i dont think nearly today the the overall market is as reliant on the transports as they once were with that said, i dont think you can have ahealthy rally without both the transports and the russell, and right now you have neither its just thats one more arrow in my bearish quiver if youre measuring bob did a great job of kind of breaking it down if youre measuring the transports purely as rails and and airplanes and things that move stuff around, youre probably missing that fedex is 10 of that index. Some people might throw in boeing though i would make that an industrial. Fedex for reasons that i think are company specific, and this is execution and operations, its had a lot of trouble for the last three quarters. Some of its the economy a lot of its the ability to handle bottlenecks in their own infrastructure airlines, look i think very cheap relative to the asset class. And if you look at the rails, while pricing and actually rail turnover is down year over year, its not a disaster. All right our next guest says there is one name in the transport space thats about to take off thats a hint. Chart master carter worth is at the plasma to break it down. Take it away yeah. Delta is the subject of the day. Good day for airlines in general. But delta is the big one, the important one. It is, of course, by assets and market cap the Biggest Airline in the world in any event, the setup for often a great breakout is the precondition of underperformance we can check off that box. Meaning heres delta in 2016, 17, and 18 down 3 versus the s p 500 up 10 meaning it underperformed. In 17, up 14 a lot but the market was up more it underperformed. Then 2018 down more than the market socalled chronic underperformance, lets move forward. And then what we have now on a more immediate basis is outperformance this is one week, three weeks, five weeks, shoerpt time frame yes, but the point is delta up three versus two up five versus four. Up 14 versus nine. Meaning you have day to daye momentum, week over we cer week momentum and that happen lear leads to that leads to something dynamics there is the period in question. You have the tripling, of course, of the s p versus delta. Well look at delta charts and go from there. So many ways to draw the lines thats fairly clear. You can call that what you want. But it is a reversal formation often known as a head and shoulders. It also, if you wanted, has this could be called a cup and handle either way, anyway, it gets resolved quite often like that another way to draw the lines same chart same time frame. Which is a series of higher lows working into the apex or the top of this ascending wedge. What often happens here is the same principle its a setup for a breakout you can draw the lines that way anyway but it is it is a very good thing. And then finally, what you all were talking about which is dow theory transports in general, we know that all Global Equities peaked, still is, the allcountry index here in january of 2016, especially in the u. S. We have this sequence where the transports are not making new highs. Ultimately, that has to get resolved otherwise just as guy said, small cap, banks, other things, this divergence is a problem carter, why dont you come on over bring a chair over weve got a gummy stake in ready at the stake in ready for you at the end of the desk thats what we can offer. Okay. Either the transports can go up or the dow can come down. Whats your guess . Well in order for that my hunch is ultimately the divergence is do you remember when the s p purportedly broke out in september, october . That was a bull trap what do we know, the financials didnt break out the industrials didnt break out. The materials never broke out. Energy never broke out the New York Stock Exchange composite, there was such classic bifurcation, we have the same circumstance now. Were quote making new highs, but constituents, parts and parcels of the market and aggregates are not making new highs. Thats what happens when things arent quite as good as the headline would suggest the headline says, alltime highs in the s p this is a bull trap again it looks identical to september october. Karen for delta which owns i love everything that came out of your month on that where do you think it can go do you see breaking through 60 whats the next stop 65 is a reasonable price objective. That doesnt have to be where it stops, but i would say lets say it higher 70 the path to 70 passes through 65 so that would be the point at which i would either write calls or take some numbers carter, kind of break a tie theres people talking about lets go back to the s p for a second you had the january, 2018, high. You had last year, then you just had i know which direction youre going to break my question is keep going some people say theres flow such thing as a triple top it doesnt exist in Technical Analysis doesnt exist, and is it something weve been there many times, weve looked at that closely there are times in individual equities, there are times with currencies, commodities, doesnt matter whether its the s p. Anything thats publicly traded that has a close or open, there are plenty of triple, quadruple, you can call it or stuck in a range and rather than bring out it fades and and loses its luster so lets, carter, talk about back to your airlines. Its trading share, trading stocks delta, stuck in a range basically since 2015 right after going from 10 to 50 in the previous three years, is this bullish or not . Very, for delta yeah. If you think about the precondition, what you river to, its the move from 10 to 50. Then the consolidated typically when a stock is consolidating a range like that after a strong advance, think of it as multiple pressure. Its getting cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. Its working into the moment where it finally is too cheap, and its earns which are coming earnings which are coming that often resolve the pattern thanks for coming by. Thank you what happened to that snake well look come on coming up, the hottest club on wall street as the soaring unicorns push tripledigit returns since the public debuts. Well tell you which could offer or enter vip status. Put him in gotsche guy adami is warming up to pitch ape stock that he says could be a summer sizzler and is up 20 this year. Thats the break welcome back time for an instant replay back in february, guy stepped up to the plate and pitched numont. Take a listen. The stocks been in the bear market i think its about to turn if the Broader Market turns lower, i think gold does well. I think gold does well, numont mining will do well in a bad tape its nem since that call, numont newmont gold corps as its known after merging has rallied 13 . What do you do now it will always be new mont mining to me, in one, melissa. Two, golds in a period of time the next weeks, sideways to slightly lower but the gold move isnt over so to answer your question, stay with Newmont Mining nem. All right tonight as you all know, marks a very special occasion for baseball the home run derby where eight of the sports brightest stars will slug it out for 1 million. Sadly, guys not competing tonight. We thought wed give him another shot at hitting it out of the park with a special home run derby pitch. Guy, youre up over to the plasma yeah. A lot of be a lot of taters tonight, tim, right . Lot of taters big plays big flies. People dialling nine its an energy play. Whats the symbol . Its dvn, deven energy. Why you say . Three reasons. One, the most sophisticated hedge book maybe in the industry why is that important . Well, youve seen the fluctuations in the price of oil over the last 18 months. Theyre probably taking advantages of it better than any other company out there. Number two, this is a shale play basically the lowest cost production shale play out there, at least from what i can tell, and all the research that ive done and the last one, improving Balance Sheet. Improving Balance Sheet, not a great Balance Sheet. Still a lot of debt there. However, they have been selling assets, and that Balance Sheet continues to improve so for those three reasons, i like the name. The chart has been awful series of lower lows and lower highs. But if feels as if maybe, and im going to show the chart, maybe we put in a shortterm bottom this will sort of show you what im talking about again. Lower lows, lower highs. Maybe finally weve sort of put it in an impasse here. Maybe were making that turn back up to the 30s valuation is really not the reason to own it but the three reasons i gave and the fact that i think oils going higher is. Does anybody have questions for guy . I do. Okay, tim guy, shale play are you worried about the oversupply that may be starting to come out of the u. S. , but more importantly headline oil prices how sensitive is the company youre 100 right that is a huge concern you have to ask yourself, is it manifested in the way the stock has been trading over the last couple of years. I would say, yes i think a lot of that has been priced in. I might be wrong if we go sideways in oil the Broader Market installs, no reason to believe this wont turn to the downside i happen to think the nine tape oil stabilized this year, i think the stock will go higher anybody have another question for guy . I do. Okay. Deven, would it be in m a, either as buyer, seller, maybe not with the Balance Sheet thats a great question my sense is theyre not going to make any acquisitions. But you know, is it crazy to think that somebody out there looking for a lowcost shale producer in play, i dont think that devons on anybodys radar screen you dont buy it for that reason but that could be the cherry on top. Sort of the tail as we say in the business no more questions time to vote are you buying guys pitch on devon energy, tim . I am a reluctant yes. Reluctant yes [ applause ] and that is because i actually believe that the company is doing that interest cost expense reduction, about 150 million a year. Guess what, i dont think its going to get a lot better for Energy Stocks in the meantime. I share your relucktance. I think to want to buy devon you have to be bullish on oil. If youre not so bullish as i am not so, no yeah oh. This may surprise you, guy. I am not a buyer you said a few words that i think are really important there. You said oversupply of shale and then youre question about m a. From my recent history, what i can kind of get, when Oil Companies have been merging of late, its not out of a position of strength. If we continue to have this massive oversupply of shale you may see temperatures need to merge, and those wont be positive i dont think for the equities and obviously its correlad to crude, crudes looks like its going to 50. If thisit goes to 50 this is go to 20. Two nos, one reluctant yes. Are you at home voting for it . Well reveal the results later we have no meh entry so just do no the market is red hot with a handful of names of ipos of more than doubling public debuts for any of the names at risk of getting kick oedut of the 100 club more ahead welcome back to fast money. The ipo gold rush is the company is making their public debuts have made the splash this year we thought it was time to recognize the top performers by inducting them into the 100 club for stocks that have already doubled since the ipo. Lets head to the lounge, we have beyond meat the winner 500 , zoom video, Online Fashion retailer revolve group as of today crowd strike joining the elite group. Are the stocks a hot trade or too hot to handle. Tim . I think some are too hot. Some are not i like crowd strike here i look at the customer base, its you know, 63 fortune 100 companies. They have recurring revenue streams. Its a company that in the security space right now, i think companies are throwing as much money at the problem as they can for fear of just, you know, corporate fiduciary responsibility so i kind of like the story. And right now they stand alone right there in terms of publicly traded options outside of cisco, which i think is the best name yeah. I would throw zoom honestly, you could have said the exact same about zoom. I think zoom benefits from being in the public markets, more ctos at corporations get to see, oh, they start hearing about companies. They did the whole road show about zoom they did. And theyre profitable still growing sales, 30 plus sort of thing. I think its a nascent market for what theyre going after so to me, im not saying that this is a 24 billion market cap. Im not saying you have to rush to buy it. But its down from 105 down to 90 if the market were to take off, these names are going to go ballistic again. Theyre going to have another leg. Yeah. Theyre ballistic already crowd fund is the rate of loss, theyre becoming more profitable for each dollar thats interesting Something Like beyond meat, i just its hard to theres something obviously the valuations gotten crazy but the dynamic of how little share, few shares there are, it just makes it untouchable. Yeah. Sometimes we wear hats. Can i put my the trader shoot what we typically wear trader hat is what we typically wear. Like the baseball hats on the weekend. The fedora. Would you wear a fedora back in the day i think hat with flaps not the ear flaps what hat are you wearing the traders cap. Got it. You have a stock thats double, and you say to yourself, you know, if i sell half my position here, youre in the rest of it for free. Thats just math like thats an s. A. T. Thing. So my advice would be trade the stock, dont let the stock trade you, melissa you like that . No matter what the stock is theres no stock there that you would say thats my trader cap. You have a double. Get out of half and trade around youre in it for free. Heres a couple more trader caps or fedoras or whatever guy wore in the 50s as dan said i think first of all what a lot of people are afraid to do is let their winners run and be longterm greedy thats something to think about. I realize with high multiple stocks that are new to the game, its tough to really know where that is. The other side of all this is a markets context for all the stocks alltime highs, money is free. Youre going to see these things do well. In a different market environment, get out of the way. Its just the way its going to be all right coming up, the pepsi challenge. The beverage giant doubling the performance of rival coke this year one trader says theres a clear winner in this soda war. Weve got the details. Plus, lets get to a check on a kramer cam. Theres jim talking about constellation, talking to the ceo about his stake in canopy after the drama last week. That full interview is at the top of the hour. We are live at the nasdaq in times square you might take something for your heart. Or joints. But do you take something for your brain. With an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in Clinical Trials to improve shortterm memory. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Welcome back to fast money. Its been a sweet year for pepsi. The sugar water stock as dan calls it up by more than 20 , double digits this year. More than double it as arch rival, cocacola, which hit a fresh alltime high. As pepsi gears up to report earnings before the bell tomorrow, options traders are making bets on whether the stock can stay on top of the pop trade. Dans at the plasma with the options action dan . Yeah. Like you said, you know, pepsis been on fire, up about 20 this year they report their q2 tomorrow before the opening the Options Market is only implying about a 2 move in either direction and that is shy of its 3 average oneday move over the last four quarters one trade caught my eye. The largest in the name, it was a short dated call buyer, a call spread when the stock was 132. 18 july 12th, this friday exprargz, 135, 137 call spread paying 37 cents, breaking even at 135. 37. The trader can make up to 163 if the stock is 137 or higher new highs for pepsi. A breakout lets go to the charts this is interesting. Talking about carter with that kind of long base. This thing was in a very long base since the start of 2018 earlier this year, in april, it broke out to new highs its been holding this uptrend thats been inplace since late december pretty constructive but obviously theres room back to 120 or so on a miss and a guide down but lets go to the tenyear chart of this thing. Since the financial crisis lows. When you look at this, how orderly this uptrend has been the whole time, theres only been a couple of tests of it one of those came in december. And then this thing just rocketed up, broke out to new highs. Off to the races heres the thing, this companys stock is trading expensive i know its got nearly a 3 dividend yield, but its expected to have an eps decline year over year this year with low single digits, sales growth. Its kind of priced to perfection this will be a really interesting early gauge for a lot of these defensive names, how they report and how the stock reacts more. All right so lets play a little would you rather here facts are obvious. Tim, i go to you since youve lefted in the sugar water invested in the sugar water sector i elicited dans wrath and he made the sugarwater phrase about cocacola last week. The valuation is closer to the longterm historical average than pepsi pepsi trades 24 times the next 12 months. Coke is cheaper than that. Coke has underperformed. I would rather own coke here just based upon i think theres more momentum for the brand. Guy see, i would take the opposite side. And thats what makes markets. I mean, pepsi has beaten i think eps 18 of the last 20 quarters or something, revenue, 16 of the last 20 quarters sets up well into earnings valuations are about the same. Lets not split hairs here i think pepsi has a more diverse brand with fritos which i happen to like, by the way. Fritos itself as to some of the other products in the fritolay portfolio. What about frito breath i eat them by myself when im watching the ball game, tim. Maybe youre by yourself for a reason of course fritos the only way to settle this dan, its time to take the pepsi challenge. Weve got two glasses. A glass of pepsi and a glass of coke with ice because you demanded ice so why dont you take a sip refined palate here, this is going to be easy i already know what that garbage is this is cocacola right here, ladies and gentlemen wow bang. Simple. I had one good point, i did not start the sugarwater thing. Steve jobs, the lategreat steve jobs when he recruited john skully from pepsi in the 80s to become the ceo, he said, you want to sell sugar water for rest of your life or do you want to change the world . The universe sorry all right whatever have a coke and a smile, people this ones good. Karen, do you have a preference i agree with everything guy said which is the opposite of what tim said, with the exception of the fritolay thing. I dont really care for the breath when youre eating them the mcdonalds or burger king momentum burger king. Stones or the who this could go on forever and ever for more, check ouour llt fu show friday, 5 30 prn eastern time up next final trades. See thats funny, i thought you traded options. Im not really a wall street guy. Whats the hesitation . Eh, it just feels too complicated, you know . Well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. Jj, will you break it down for this gentleman . Hey, ian. You know, at Td Ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until youre comfortable. I could be up for that. Thats taking options trading from wall st. To main st. Hey guys, wanna play some pool . Eh, im not really a pool guy. Whats the hesitation . Its just complicated. Stepbystep options trading support from Td Ameritrade join us for a walk . Id love to, but my legs and feet are so tired and achy. Walter, you need revitive its the circulation booster it really got me moving. I use my revitive every day to relieve my aching legs and feet. Its so easy. Drug free. And its electrical muscle stimulation really improves the circulation in my legs. Im back walking this guy everywhere. Check it out online. Revitive. Fda cleared. Clinically tested. Only revitive relieves aches and pains, increases oxygen rich blood, and strengthens leg muscles. Weve gotta do this. Dont suffer any longer order revitive medic with a 60 day money back guarantee. With Free Shipping and free returns. Someone got revitive. Order now and well send you our most popular treatment boosting accessories. A 50 value absolutely free go to revitive. Com or call. Get moving today is where people first gathered to form the stock exchangeee, which brought people together to invest in all the things that move us forward. Every day, invesco combines ideas with technology, data with inspiration, investors with solutions. Because the possibilities of life and investing are greater when we come together. Welcome back you know what guy adanny will be listening to as he watches the history tederby. Whitney houston. More than 7 0 they would disagree its amusement. Final trade time. If you look at macys, you could take some glee from a 7 dividend yield for a company that i still think is getting their act slowly right even with secular headwinds, macys. Karen yes, you know, im not usually a trader, but i think boeing was interesting obviously bad news that they is it flyadeal i think changed to the airbus. Stock wasnt down that much. I think its bottomed out. Dan yeah. I think pepsi will be an interesting name tomorrow to see how it reacts to that dollar thats got stronger again, the issues macrowise. Guy if im a met fan when im not im worried about pete alonzo throwing that utah there come on, man. And devon that does it my mission is simple, to make you money im here to level the Playing Field for all investors. There is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now hey, im cramer. Welcome to mad cramerica. Other people want to make friends, i want to make you money. My job is not just to entertain but to educate and make you money. Call or tweet me jimcramer. There is more to this business than watching the Federal Reserve and thats true with a day like today where the dow loses and th