Administration to court over the blacklisting of huawei and elon musk calling it the most difficult launch ever as the falcon heavy rocket blasted into space earlier this morning. Of course we have the video. Its tuesday, june 25th as Worldwide Exchange begins right now. Good morning, good afternoon, good evening and welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching im Brian Sullivan well, we are about 0. 8 away on the dow from a new intraday high futures indicating it may be tough to get there yesterday the markets were up, just a couple fractions of a point here perhaps were on g20 watch whatever it is, futures are flat right now. Its 224 points on the dow from a record the s p 500, every time it makes a new high, that is a new high money has come into stocks money has also come into bonds the tenyear yield is staying low again. Look at that 2. 01 . Later on in the show we have the chief economist for the National Association of realtors, well talk to him about what that might mean for the Mortgage Market or if youre looking to refinance. Four days until that massive g20 meeting in japan where President Trump and chinas xi jinping are scheduled to meet. Ahead of that were seeing stocks in asia not getting a lift the nikkei down a half percent the hang seng down 1 . If europe f we didnshgeurope, ia better rbi, this would have been your random but interesting stat of the day, every single index in europe is higher this month a solid june for europe. The best performing market in europe is the worst performing economy, thats italy. Great country, bad economy, but a good stock market this month oil, bitcoin and gold. A couple days until that opec meeting which kicks off on monday gold is up again another 1 to 1,433. Multiyear highs every day for gold and bitcoin, its been a juggernaut this month and this year bitcoin up another 2. 5 . Thats 270 bucks to 11,300 by the way, your rbi at the end of the hour is on bitcoin. Its a cool one, i think stay tuned for that. As we noted we are nearing alltime highs for the dow, where do we go longer term joining us is bill stone from avalon advisers. Were in the media were simple folk. We like big, round numbers, new records. It would be nice if we hit it on the dow. Im thinking about six months and a year out from now. Everything across the board has been bought. Are you getting at all nervous well, i guess i would feel a lot better if we werent already at some highs. You know, typically when you start to see certainly a global easing cycle from the Central Banks, that has at least certainly recent history lifted asset prices. Thats positive, but were very close to highs so were not in a position where we sold off or where were in a soldoff position. In that sense i get a little worried that, you know, i always think of the market as expectations were close to highs, so expectations are fairly good despite the things out there is the fed like ahero superhero, or a mid level superhero. If everything in the world, stocks, bonds, bitcoin, gold, housing, if everything is up and everybody says its the fed, are we overstating the real market power that it might have yeah. I think underneath the fact is the economy is i will call it satisfactory so when you have i will go back to it when you have Central Banks easing and essentially right now you have the fed moving towards insurance cuts, not that the actual data has deteriorated that much, i do think thats part of what is driving things whether thats a superpower, probably not really. If things are really falling apart, i think you would see assets falling off because the fact is earnings would really collapse so what are you telling clients longer term . New records are nice theyll capture the nearterm attention. If we look a year from now, do you see markets being able to be higher i do see it certainly the ability to be higher i think for us still a recession is not in the cards. There is an interesting side to this every time the Central Banks have gotten together here during this expansion and started to ease somewhat, you have seen the Global Economy pick up again i think thats what you pointed out earlier. You have seen european stock markets act better its not their economy is doing well at all. You pointed out italy in particular but the fact is we look to be or theyre likely to ease again over there as well so youre seeing asset inflation going on i he think in the longer run it makes sense to stay positive, particularly in stocks relative to bonds bonds are already pricing in you have 2 here in the u. S. On the tenyear talking negative rates in europe so what will you do there . Youre guaranteed to lose money at least collecting the coupon i guess you could make money if it goes more negative, which is something i never thought i would say. You and i both. Is there any group of stocks that looks particularly attractive to you guys i think you still have to stick the safety stocks of the world are very expensive so if you believe this is going to give us reflation, i think you go in the industrials. Consumer discretionary still looks good to us the u. S. Consumer remains in good shape i think it will be interesting we get a take on nike this week. Maybe well get a glimpse there. Some retailers have done well bill stone, appreciate it. See you soon thank you very much. Thank you when we come back, outrageous and idiotic that is what iran is calling President Trumps new set of sanctions. A live report from the region. And a huge American Company is suing america over huawei yeah its true. That big story ahead dont call it a well, call it a comeback, but dont call it a bubble seesisn bull tom lee mak h ca for the future of crypto. Hey im bill slowsky jr. , i live on my own now ive got xfinity, because i like to live life in the fast lane. Unlike my parents. You rambling about xfinity again . Youre so cute when you get excited. Anyways. Ive got their app right here, i can troubleshoot. I can schedule a time for them to call me back, its great you have our number programmed in . Ya i dont even know your phone anymore. Excuse me . what . I dont know your phone number. Aw well. He doesnt know our phone number you have our fax number, obviously. Todays xfinity service. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Ill pass. Welcome back 5 10 here. Iranian president hue srouhani s hiring back at the u. S. Over new sanctions. Hadley gamble is live in bahrain with more. That tough talk between tehran and washington, brian, showing no signs of toning down there. Those comments from irans president striking out at mr. Trumps latest sanctions the latest sanctions targeting the ayatollah and his inner circle lets listen to the president yesterday. The Supreme Leader of iran is one who is ultimately responsible for the hostile conduct of the regime. Hes respected within his country. His office oversees the regimes most brutal instruments including the Islamic Revolutionary guard corps. We will continue to inhe crease pressure on tehran until the regime aban dodons its latest st aspirations. They are trying to target not just irans economy but the Iranian Revolutionary guard and proxies in lebanon, yemen and syria. Its really interesting to note even while this tone and this rhetoric continues unabated, we heard from john bolton, he was in israel earlier today saying listen all we need is a phone call from tehran you know, hadley, youre in bahrain. Is this the Jared Kushner summit if so, how is it going were just hours away from this peace to prosperity workshop the Trump Administration and his soninlaw, this is his brainchild we know the secretary of the treasury, Steven Mnuchin will be on site for this we expect folks like Steve Schwarzman to be on the agenda a lot of businessmen from this region but i have to tell you how far this will move the dial forward is anybodys guess were talking about some 50 billion in investment they want to see playing out in the next ten years, but theres the bigger question over why the israelis and the palestinians, both of whom refuse to attend this conference, the palestinians saying we cant be bought this is a sellout for us the question is can you have economic stability without a political solution many sides on this question. But most people saying theres no way to get that done. Well find out. Hadley gamble, thank you very much still on deck, President Trump preparing for an allimportant facetoface with chinese president xi jinping in japan. We will take you live to beijing next. And incredible video just moments ago in florida where elon musks falcon heavy rocket is carrying some questionable cargo into space but a very successful launch tas d decongp. Deilanvio mi u my mom washes the dishes. Before she puts them in the dishwasher. So what does the dishwasher do . Cascade platinum does the work for you, prewashing and removing stuckon foods, the first time. Wow, thats clean cascade platinum. The first survivor of ais out there. Sease and the Alzheimers Association is going to make it happen. But we wont get there without you. Visit alz. Org to join the fight. On a scale of one to five . One to five . Its more like five million. Theres everything from happy to extremely happy. Theres also angry. Im really angry clive actually, really angry. Thank you. But what if your business could understand what your customers are feeling. And then do something about it. Turn problems into opportunities. Thanks drone. Customers into fanatics change the whole experience. Alright who wants to go again . I do i do i have a really good feeling about this. Just four days until what may be described as the meeting of the year. Trump and chinas president ready to talk in japan as trade tensions remain high eunice yoon is live in beijing with what we can expect at the g20. Thank you very much, brian. The chinese would have something to say about the trade tensions were seeing currently the Foreign Ministry just moments ago said that the current trade tensions are due mainly to unilateralism, protectionism and bullying behavior china is the victim of many of the current trade restrictions so what were seeing now ahead of the g20 is a consistent message from beijing that china feels this whole process has not been fair and is not equal and theyre not really willing to put up with it anymore. Yesterday the officials, some of them involved directly in the negotiates said that for the trade talks theres a couple of principles they would like to see. A mutual respect, equality, Mutual Benefit and meeting halfway. So also privately ive been talking to one source of mine who is close to the chinese negotiating team and their way of thinking. I was surprised because he said there is still some wiggle room between the two between the chinese and u. S. Teams he said what theyre stuck on now, is that they dont like the idea that china wouldnt be able to retaliate if the u. S. Decided to impose tariffs. And also they still were g gobsmacked by the size of the purchases the u. S. Team wanted to have the vice premiere had a phone conversation with his u. S. Counterparts, lighthizer and Steven Mnuchin not a lot of detail as to what they discussed, the one thing the state media was quick to point out, it was at the u. S. s invitation, the u. S. Initiated this it shows how sensitive china is about making sure people know who is going to whom the u. S. Coming to china, they made that very clear. Eunice yoon, thank you very much. U. S. china trade tensions taking their toll on companies now an american giant is suing america over huawei. Frank holland has more on an incredible story around fedex. Good morning good morning. This developed last night after the bell fedex filed a lawsuit against the Commerce Department claiming new export restrictions are nearly impossible to follow. The suit does not name huawei but fedex has been caught up in the broader dispute between the urgs an u. S. And china the company apologized for misrouting packages involving Huawei Huawei and other companies were placed on a banned list in may fedex says this is an impossible burden on shippers to know the origin and content of packages the Commerce Department says they plan to defend its role in national security. Yeah. So this is a fedex story its one that will stretch out in the courts here doesnt look like a negative reaction on fedex. Not this morning. Yesterday the stock took a dip a lot of people think that was due to reported price cuts for its express division fedex said they kept their Pricing Strategy the same. A lot of other shippers have spoken out u. P. S. Says it has not had problems, but fedex has been very vocal about this saying the Commerce Department is trying to deputyize it, and even if they could inspect all the packages, that would be a violation of privacy. The guy who founded fedex, fred smith, hes a marine so pro america. Forget beyond meat mcdonalds figuring out theres money to be made beyond ice. Well explain that ahead. And bitcoin has been red hot. But theres one investment thats been even better this year you can call it the antibitcoin its your morning rbi and its ahead. Youre here to buy a used car, truck, suv. Thats smart. Truecar can help. Its great for finding a new car, but you already knew that. Its also great for finding the perfect used car. Youll see what a fair price is and you can connect with a truecar certified dealer. So no matter what youre looking for, there it is. This is how buying a used car should be. This is truecar. upbeat music thank you for being with us here stock futures are not giving a lot of indication of which way the market wants to go were down 10 points dont make too much of that. Its early if youre keeping track at home, the dow is 0. 4 away from a record high, thats 224 dow points crude oil is flat at 57. 90 ahead of that big and maybe contentious opec meeting which kicks off on monday. Lets check the other big stories outside of the worlds of money and business including a longawaited senate sitdown with some 9 11 heroes good morning to you the battle over Border Security is raging on in capitol hill the Trump Administration is facing fierce new criticism for filthy chronic conditions at some federal detention facilities on monday hundreds of Migrant Children were relocated from a texas Border Patrol center that lawyers called appalling and dangerous. Mitch mcconnell is expected to meet with 9 11 responders this afternoon after blistering criticism from jon stewart who accused the gop leader as using the 9 11 Victim Compensation fund the nba handed out their end of season awards with luka doncic taking home nba rookie of the year award the biggest award, the mvp goes to milwaukees greek freak who was drafted by the bucks in 2013 as a relative unknown, but now hes the third youngest mvp ever impressive just to have that title. Even more impressive when all of us in the country will be able to know his name, say it, let it roll off of our tongues. Yes we will. And maybe probably the coolest uniforms in the league, the Milwaukee Bucks become on the map. Thank you very much. When we come back, trump hitting iran and its ayatollah with new sanctions will they work or potentially lead us to war the bitcoin breakout, tom lee is here for what he sees as the hottest investment in the world this year. The first survivor of alzheimers disease is out there. And the Alzheimers Association is going to make it happen. But we wont get there without you. Visit alz. Org to join the fight. Dear tech, lets talk. We have a pretty good relationship. Youve done a lot of good for the world. But i feel like you have the potential to do so much more. Can we build ai without bias . How do we bake security into everything we do . We need tech that helps people understand each other. That understands my business. Weve got some work to do. And we need your help. We need your support. Lets expect more from technology. Lets put smart to work. Could today be the day that the dow finally sets a new record high . Bitcoin busting out, higher again right now. Dont you dare call it a comeback tom lee is here. Theres one investment even hotter than bitcoin. It may just be the antibitcoin. Heres your mystery chart, its your rbi on this tuesday, june 25th as youre watching Worldwide Exchange on cnbc its the 25th day of the crazy month of june. 5 28 welcome back thanks for being with us on Worldwide Exchange. All right. So will today be the day you may have heard about the record highs the s p is there the dow, 224 points away thats 0. 84 away from the alltime high. Futures not giving us any help theyre down 10, call it flat. Bitcoin, banking coin up again right now. Tom lee will join us in a moment look at that breakout. Up 205 yeartodate and if you wonder why bitcoin has been so hot, because theres a lot ofbuyers, this is bitcoi versus the dollar index. The dollar index is in orange. The dollar has weakened a bit over the last couple of weeks, as bitcoin has broken out. They track together for much of the year i get that lately here, we are seeing kind of a divergence there. Guess what as the dollar index has moved down, you know whats moved up gold com comex gold trading with bitcoin. Often seen as competitors, but theyre tracking together. The gains are bigger, but sort of the relative movement of the two have been about the same lets talk more about this and the big bitcoin breakout joining us now on the cnbc news line from some farflung place in the world is fundstrats tom lee. They were giving you grief, tom, how good does it feel to have been right about bitcoin well, it feels good because, you know, bitcoin has proven its not broken. Its fallen 80 , its been rezil he yent every timresilient evere it traded above 10,000 in history when you see bitcoin reaccelerate its move. Do you think this is a lasting breakout maybe back to new highs . Or as i tried to show on the telestrator, maybe a reflection of what has been a weakening dollar and a world awash in money . The macro you just described, you have a qe, low rates, theres an alternative that is a challenge for bitcoin. Theres a lot of other good things happening the Facebook Libra libra is a mainstream development. 2 billion people that will discover crypto. If you look at transactions for bitcoin, were basically back to the 2017 highs theres a lot of activity on the blockchain interestingly people are not that bullish the sentiment is essentially muted right now. I think, you know, theres a lot of room for bitcoin to advance yeah. Weve seen some of the other at alt currencies move higher, but not to the level of bitcoin. Do you think bitcoin has established themselves theres other coin investments out there, but that bitcoin has finally really broken away from the pack and will be the digital or alt commodity currency of the future yes i would say the prevailing thought of 2017 2018, the idea that people were betting on bitcoin dominance would shrink from 32 where it was in 2017, but since it started 2018, bitcoins dominance has done from 32 to 62 . Its clearly the dominant blockchain libra, the primary use will be speculation on financial assets, like the way the dollar is used to speculate on other assets the biggest thing is bitcoin is being bought i saved the best for last you have an incredible stat, even if youre out there as a cnbc viewer and you dont like bitcoin, you dont trust it, you dont understand it, whatever it is, if you had just put about 2 of your investment portfolio into bitcoin, how much greater would your returns have been in a diversified portfolio . Thats the shocking thing a tiny allocation would have added 400 basis points to your total return thats the difference between an okay year and a great year for everybody, including a fund manager. So the good news is 10,000 is not the level that bitcoin should peak at i think people should think about the alltime highs and moving past those. Wow incredible just 2 after your portfolio into bitcoin would have added another 4 to your total return this year. Incredible stats tom lee, well let you get back to whatever you were doing thanks for joining us on Worldwide Exchange. Thanks, brian new developments out of the middle east. Irans president lashing out calling trumps new sanctions outrageous and idiotic and even perhaps a sign of mental illness. Lets bring in Daniel Tannenbaum from price waterswatershouse co. The current sanctions may not have worked. Will these the current sanctions have not worked these will add further fuel to the fire the sanctions that came out yesterday after the highly taunted announcement of larger sanctions inbound were largely symbolic while the Supreme Leader controls a Large Business empire, he doesnt travel to the u. S. He doesnt generally have assets in the u. S. , so its a symbolic effort that flies in the face of the rhetoric coming out of the Trump Administration that they want to negotiate with iran. This makes it that much harder i would say pushing become a bit, dan, youre the expert, maybe its more than symbolic. I get what youre saying about the functional aspects of it he doesnt have the money here, why does it matter, but it does continue to tick off the administration in iran and potentially move that country in the direction we probably dont want it to which is harder to the religious right. Thats possible a number of folks believe this is just a further move towards potential regime change or attempt at regime change from the u. S. Youre seeing different factions within the u. S. Government with different views on this, from secretary pompeos 12 demands to preconditions to talks, to President Trumps no preconditions to talks we have a wide swing from trying to obliterate the country to having talks with them like President Trump had with north korea. Whats next what are we waiting for . What could iran do i guess say were not enriching uranium and we wont try to sell oil elsewhere in the world, 40 of their government revenue, what else could they do to appease the white house . The white house has an interesting track record of create crisis, solve crisis, pat themselves on the pack for solving that crisis. There is an Attention Span issue. If you look at all of the different sanctions related issues that have played out over the last two years this is similar to how my kids pick up toys in the morning. It starts off fast and trails off rapidly. Venezuela, syria, russia all of these issues are unresolved i think iran may cool off and then we could see talks in the future if you see what comes out of iran today, they say theres no way well have discussions with the u. S. And this closes the door forever kind of mirroring the rhetoric coming out of the u. S. But i mean the whole intention of this or the whole rational for why this began for the viewers to remember is the u. S. Pulled out of the iran deal. We had a relative detente, very moderate tensions between the u. S. And iran. This all began last spring when the u. S. Walked away from a multilateral deal. You think its likely this will maybe accomplish the opposite of what were trying to do, make it more of a hard line nation i think theres a differing view within the administration of what it is were trying to do i think you legitimately do have a few different camps. Some pushing for war some pushing for peace it depends on who is in the year of the president at the moment as these decisions are tweeted out. Daniel tannenbaum, appreciate it thank you very much. All right. Fantastic video straight ahead elon musk calling this the most difficult rocket launch ever for spacex and with a rather unusual cargo on board as well then how chinas pain could become vietnams gain. Stick around i thought it was unfair. When when you hear those words that you get diagnosed with cancer. osamah successfully treating it still remains one of the most enormous challenges facing us today. We realized that, if we developed the technology that could take 2dimensional patient imaging and convert it into 3dimensional holographic renderings, we could enable surgeons to dissect around the cancer so we can precisely remove it. When we first started, we felt like this might just not be possible because Computing Power just wasnt there, but verizon 5g ultra wideband will give us the ability to do this. We wont rest until we see this technology being able to change lives. danny after a long day of hard work. You have to do more work . vo automatically sort your expenses and save over 40 hours a month. danny every day youre nearly fried to a crisp, professionally vo you earned it, were here to make sure you get it. Quickbooks. Backing you. Time for the top trending stories, which include rockets, mcdonalds and the world cup we have some good ones. Starting off with space. Another successful launch for spacex overnight the falcon heavy rocket blasting off from the Kennedy Space center in florida a few hours ago. On board several satellites, an atomic clock and the ashes of more than 150 people i guess that was some kind of a last wish . I would imagine they paid for that privilege to be dispersed into the ether interesting idea. Would you want your ashes spread anywhere do you want to be buried i would rather not think about it the ocean . The ocean just space is cool a much lighter topic now im sad if you were hoping to catch fridays u. S. Womens world cup game in person, brace yourself for sticker shock. Ticket prices for the match against france have gone through the roof one pair of tickets is going for 11,000 if your a bargain hunter, you can find them for 700 each. Theyre in france, its france against maybe the best team in the world. This team is amazing. They are. Beating teams by ten goals sometimes. Outstanding. Mcdonalds big bet on fresh is paying off. Its been a year since mcdonalds switched from frozen to fresh beef in its quarter pounder. In that time sales are up 30 . Mcdonalds says it sold more than 40 million more quarter pounders in the First Quarter of 2019 than the same time period a year ago i said earlier beyond meat . No, beyond ice beyond ice . Its not frozen anymore its fresh lets have one at 8 30 this morning. Which is our lunch time. Frank, thank you very much switching gears now to trade. One country perhaps emerging as a big winner in the trade fight with china youre looking at it live. Thats whhanoi, vietnam vietnam has the manpower to produce goods. Roughly 95 Million People live there. 75 of them are under the age of 30 all day long cnbc is taking an in depth look at vietnams manufacturing boom Carl Quintanilla is on the ground with more carl good morning. As you know, its a big week in the world of global trade. G20 around the corner. The white house continues to insist that American Companies are looking to realign supply chains out of china and into countries like vietnam thats not something most companies are going to address directly so weve come to hanoi to talk to suppliers, government officials, logistics experts and they mostly agree in certain categories this is really happening. In q1 exports out of vietnam into the u. S. Were up 40 . But its part of a longerterm trend thats been going on for a long time as labor costs in china have been going up adam sitkoff is with the American Chamber of commerce hanoi. We saw when 10 tariffs were placed on goods from china, companies scrambled around to see how they could split that, each take a hair cut, suck it up so they dont have to increase end prices on the consumer once you go from 10 to 25 , we find that companies cant do that and they actually have to put their supply shifts into action thats what weve seen happen here in vietnam. The problem now for vietnam will be about infrastructure can they handle all these new orders can they add capacity . Can they find workers . Can they train them in time . All day today well explore that issue. Talk about whether this is vietnams moment, what do they need to capitalize on . How long will it take . What American Brands are really counting on countries like this. Its happening all day well be live in hanoi we look forward to it thats a cool series. Made in vietnam. On deck, a big red flag for your money the next guest says something is happening now thats only happened three times in the past 25 years and all three times it didnt end well for the economy. What is it well explain. And your morning rbi the one investment that has done better than bitcoin and it may just be the antibitcoin theres your chart its your rbi. Were back after this. Maybe a little too well done shares of beyond meat giving back some of its gains it looks set to open lower this morning. Down 3. 5 right now. By the way, a whoppering 7 700 million in market cap has been wiped out. The stock still even with that drop yesterday and the premarket drop today is up a cool five fold since its ipo at 25 per share. Lets get you caught up to speed on the other top stories iran firing back at trump. Its president slamming the new sanctions calling them idiotic and suggesting the president may be suffering from mental illness. Nissan shareholders making a bold move booting out much of the board. They also okayed new compensation and audit committees investors took aim at nissans ceo, some calling for him to step down. And an American Company suing america over china fedex filing a lawsuit against the Commerce Department over export laws. Fedex says the rules make it nearly impossible to follow because of how many packages they handle every single day theres your executive recap now lets move on to another hot topic, thats housing. Bond yields are staying low. The tenyear a hair above 2 right now. While you certainly may not care about bonds, thats your right you probably do care about Mortgage Rates, either to buy or to refinance how much will this big bond boom boost housing if at all . Joining us is lawrence yun how sensitive are home buyers, new buyers to mart damaortgage . Good morning. Very sensitive, but it takes time home buying process is not a snap decision unless someone is on the fence ready to jump in and bite the low rates people have to do some searching. Get the mortgage origination, home inspection. Theres a variety of factors the Mortgage Rate being low in the First Quarter means home sales will likely pick up possibly strongly in the third and Fourth Quarter the problem has not been rates. The problem has been that in many markets theres simply not a lot of houses for sale the ones that are for sale have been sitting for a while because they seem undesirable to buyers. Any indication that lore ralowe rates are enticing people to move and sell their own home youre right in terms of the lack of supply in our estimation we are short about 5 million to 6 million Housing Units based on the job growth and population growth that has occurred in the past decade homes on the market are still moving swiftly less than a month on average the days on the market are swift. But the homes at the mid price and affordable homes, homes that firsttime buyers will be looking for as well as middle class families, just not up there. So we need to assure more supply comes to the market and the builders are implying theres high costs of regulation, high costs of construction workers, material costs some kind of tax incentive to juice the market in terms of supply because there are plenty of buyers, just not enough housing for sale at this hour here on the east coast, lawrence, many of our viewers on Worldwide Exchange are in boston. Theyre in maryland. Theyre in new jersey. Theyre in the high tax states hit by that deduction cap on the state and local tax issue. There is a movement right now among some democrats in congress to try to excise that, to get that out of the tax bill if indeed they are successful in doing that, and that cap is removed, would you see an immediate move up you think in housing activity and prices in those high tax areas absolutely. Because we hear from realtor members that the clients are constantly asking questions about what they can deduct or not. Investors are coming back in and invest get full benefits, they get to deduct interest and property tax but for home owners theyre limited. I visited connecticut, in connecticut the lowend market, midprice market, theyre strong on the upper end where the salt is beginning to bite, its extremely soft youre seeing large Price Reductions the reversal of what people can deduct will get buyers reinvigorated in the hightax stakes lawrence yun, a timely topic appreciate it. Thank you very much. Thank you futures have turned in the green. You might have heard about this record high watch were on when i say in the green, one point, but theyre in the green. Lets bring in chad morganlander from Washington Crossing advisers i wont ask you about a onepoint move in the futures. More importantly, i want to talk about bonds from a different angle. This threemonth tenyear yield curve inversion. Most people think its boring. It may be. It only happened three times in the last 25 years. All three times it didnt work out well for the u. S. Economy. My partners on my team did some research on the curve. What we found was that this indicator is a very good one when it comes to figuring out when there will be a recession but the recession could happen 15 months later. So that is one thing the other thing is that the stock market, its very hard to predict when the stock market will go down we noticed the top of the stock market happens one month to 15 months out so we would at this point just look at this indicator as a Carbon Monoxide detector that doesnt necessarily is it screaming or just starting to beep its starting to beep check the battery. We have to also be aware that its not timely, so we know to get out immediately. Its not a good trading indicator. Overall its telling you that the u. S. Economy and a Global Economy is decelerating. And that stocks when compared to bonds may not be as attractive as investors think i love history, i will say this pushing back on these things this is an environment with a very easy fed. We have this trade war going on. We have all this other stuff happening. Dont have a historical precedent. I wonder if those three times in the past do they matter as much . They may matter it could affect the real economy from Capital Investment to lending when it comes to banks to profitability of Financial Institutions youre correct never have we seen an environment within Interest Rates where you have german bonds on the twoyear selling at a negative 70 basis points our number of the day, one day last week was 12. 5 trillion because thats the total value of debt france, sweden, switzerland, japan, germany, that is yielding negative. Its insane. It is insane. This is an indicator this is telling you the Global Economy will continue to be sluggish and slow Inflation Expectations will continue to be lowered but overall market optimists are looking at the earnings yield in relationship to this low Interest Rate environment. And saying to themselves i can get a better return within the stock market at this point within the cycle, though we are cautious when it comes to the yield curve, were still modestly overweight equity risk in particular within the united states. When i look across the board well do more on this tomorrow morning, not only is everything up, but the weakest economies in europe, italy and greece, their stock markets are the best performing. Bitcoin back above 11,000. The Chinese Market on fire everything is up this is the perfect conversation to be had just because the monetary authorities across the globe could do what theyve been doing doesnt mean they should have been doing what theyre doing. What i mean by that, youre starting to see asset inflation in the most speculative fringes of the market this is something that overall if this continues over the next 18 months could be quite troubling. Do you see the ability for the u. S. Stock market to continue on . We do for the time being. We do expect perhaps a 4 to 6 annualized return over the course of the next three to five years. But you will have more volatility if there is an adjustment within Interest Rates, meaning a reverse where the curve goes higher, then that could be a major headwind right now we still continue to think there could an market melt up over the course of the next six months it has been the most hated bull market in american history, but it keeps going i wonder if some of it has to do with the shrinking pool of assets you need aggregate demand across the globe to go negative, you have not seen that yesterday. Chad, appreciate it see you soon thank you very much. Time for your morning rbi. Today lets play a game called better than bitcoin. Because the digital commodity has been red hot, up 30 200 this year its up again right now. Pretty incredible. Get this, as good as its been, its not the best performer out there. Its close heres whats been better than bitcoin. This month both Restoration Hardware and boot barn are up as much or more than bitcoin. Sofas and snake skin have been hot. Heres whats really random and interesting. Theres one stock, only one in any index that has been better than bitcoin this year its the Small Cap Stock that weve talked about before. Ohiobased d ishdiebold, they me atm machines bitcoin beaten by a Company Whose machines spit out hard cash random but interesting squawk box starts right now. Good morning harsh rhetoric from iran overnight as the u. S. Slapped new sanctions on the Islamic Republic some of the players themselves over there as well fedex taking the Trump Administration to court over the blacklisting of huawei, calling the new restrictions an impossible burden. And well hear from five fed policymakers today with the dow just over 200 points, just about 200 points from a new record. The price of gold and digital gold, bitcoin surging. Its tuesday, june 25, 2019. Squawk box begins right now. Live from new york where business never sleeps, this is squawk box. Good morning, everybody welcome to squawk box here on cnbc we are live from the Nasdaq Market site in times square. Im becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. Lets check out the u. S. Equity futures. You will see right now the dow is implied to open up by 1. 5 points the s p down by 2. 5. The nasdaq off by 15. 5 this comes after a modest day of advances or declines yesterday you saw that the dow was up by 8 points yesterday s p was down by 5. The nasdaq was down by 26. All of this happening as we still await to see what happens at the g20 meeting thats the big one people are watching, those trade talks or potential talks between President Trump and president xi overnight in asia, youll see that at least right now youre talking about