In the trade war the Halftime Report with scott wapner begins right now. Our Investment Committee at the desk today and back with us today is marc lasry, Avenue Capital groups chairman and ceo nice to have him back. Lets begin with the latest on the markets. Clearly waiting on the fed that News Conference just a couple of hours away the s p 500 just about 1 away from a new record high jim, is the market going to get what it wants today . It better get what it wants today, which is something dubbish from the fed i think were all chuckling. Jon is over there. If they turned to a hawkish tilt, you will see a drop in this market that will being dovish enough i think after december when chairman powell made two mistakes, i think hes not going to make a third mistake. The idea that hes caught in the political crosshairs and i think that is empty. Because i think at the end of the day, he wants to keep the expansion on track and he knows the stock market and the financial of the markets overall is vital to that and hell do the right thing. Marc lasry, what do you think the fed will do and what do you think the fed should do . I think theyre going to keep rates. Theyre not going to raise rates at all i think it will stay i think it will be, as jim said, very dovish. They need to be that the economy is not what it was last year. Everybody is nervous about that and nobody wants this economy going into a recession so, youve got to make sure that doesnt happen and everybody is looking at chairman powell today and i think he will do the right thing. Is the right thing cutting rates . I dont think you need to cut rates, i think you need to say, look, were looking at it. Were if need be, we will do that you see what the ecb has done and i think he is going to follow exactly what they ended up doing good point that marc makes, signaled they will do whatever it takes whether its more stimulus, doesnt want to move too far or get that spread too wide of where the fed is first of all, europe missed the cycle. Well have to wait to the next cycle to get European Growth i think chairman poweunderstand that words matter. Most good lessons are learned that way as he is getting more comfortable, he understands words matter i dont think he will raise rates today but quantitative and they could drop us some bread crumbs and ultimately he said very clearly he will be accommodati accommodative if things get weaker the probably is it is 100 right now for july cut of 25 basis points obviously, some are pushing even for 50 i think he will do just as mark said he will follow the ecb lead i mean draghi in one of his final statements has come out and said, ill be so accommodative, you guys wont believe it im going to be accommodative here, judge. I think that is all jay powell has to do. The fed is willing and ready to move and let july fall where july falls he doesnt have to move today, he just has to not indicate that they are more likely to raise rates than cut rates do you think the fed should cut rates . I think they shouldnt. What you are doing is distance mediating the government and historically we had a handoff of monetary stimulus to fiscal stimulus and now we dont have that any more the fiscal stimulus we had from the fax cuts and from rolling back regulations have been muted by the trade wars. So, if you do that, youre basically saying and i dont think theyre going to look at it this way, basically saying that Politics Congress doesnt matter any more. Weve seen nothing happening during obamas administration. The fed had to do it all the fed cant continue to do it are you in all cash now no, i actually added i only ask you that because you know what the likelihood may be if they dont cut rates because the market has all but built that in in the very least, price cut in in the next year or so im not sure, frankly, i think the structure of the market is so proverat this point think that matters any more. We see the ten year trading at 2 handle. Thats nothing i would tell you were facing a recession, clearly were not i think too much is being made out of being 100 sure in july i dont think the fed cuts in july, frankly. But, a lot of it will depend upon what happens with the trade talks. So, trump, you know, like a little kid had to come out and say, hey, i had a great meeting with xi coming up. Thats unlikely to be resolved but if they move it forward and optimism coming out of it. You dont think they cut in july i dont think they cut in july i think they have to. He did learn the lesson the hard way twice in the last quarter of last year. Look, youre not going to get a resolution youre going to get some talks at the end of the month at the g20 that doesnt give enough of a resolution you still have the trade tensions out there and thats not talking about brexit or about what we might do with auto tariffs and too much out there for him being powell going against the grain of what the market expects. Is the notion then that you cut rates and stocks automatically rise misplaced Capital Economics say markets are pricing in almost four 25 basis points over the next 12 months at the same time, annual Earnings Growth is expected to pick up near 13 history suggests such a combination is unlikely. Credit suisse says we published on Interest Rates and stock prices, higher rates highal valuations, lower rates, lower valuations suggest that stocks are not going to go up, necessarily, if they cut rates so, good strategy and smart and that is such a sim plapli s move six months to a year to impact the economy. You cant say we cut rates and all of a sudden the market went down we had historically low rates since 2008 so, i think you have to throw that out the window. Theres so many coefishants there. The mathematics say youre using discounted cash flow models and a lot of people do to price stocks the Interest Rate goes down and cash flows go up and multiple goes up. I read the note, hes missing the time delay here. Is he saying immediately when a rate cut happens you dont get the stock price . This is what youre saying the point the economy is weakening and embarking on this rate cut cycle, that tells you something in and of itself why would you expect higher stock prices if theyre signaling the economy is weakening . I think all you really want right now is you want the market to be confident. You can use words. It is far better to end up speaking and saying, hey, were going to be dovish and do all that then doing the rate cut you only have so many rate cuts. So, there is a limit to how much you can keep lowering. So, you need to be able to keep the market confident that youre doing the right thing. And if i was powell, i would keep pushing that decision off now if the market assumes it will happen in july, youll wait until july it is far better not to do the rate cuts but to say you will. And then the market will end up moving as long as the market feels no rate increase, youre fine youre absolutely right. It takes time for this to have an effect on the economy all anybody wants, by the way, is no recession. Right. Youre not trying to go back to 3 gdp growth. Youd love that. But what everybody is worried about is the recession not to have a recession means lets keep rates where they are and lower them a little bit and lets keep this thing going at 1 or 2 marc has a good point, you dont want to go into a situation where you had last fall where it appeared that powells, you know, eye was off the ball of what was maybe happening in the global economy. And he had to change it as bryn said through his language. You dont want an appearance that the fed is so myopic in where they think we are and they miss the big picture. It is a dmroglobal market. The fed understands that i think here, judge, if i put my money with Credit Suisse, it would be with paul tutor jones. Unless he says when youre at the start of a cycle, just buy stocks exactly Credit Suisse a cut cycle Credit Suisse is saying almost the exact opposite of that back testing it that is what they think and to stephens point, that is the timing. How long because of the medicine working its way into the system, if indeed thats what youre doing. Then how long does it take to work your way into the system . Three months, six months like steve said if it is, then i dont know who would follow this ludicrous Credit Suisse statement here because it doesnt make any sense. I coo think real quickly, i think that if you look back in time and you go back to the 30s. In 1938, 38 basis points weve seen zero rates before it took almost three decades to get the 90day back up to 1 the only thing new is the history you dont know and thats where weve seen this playbook before and i think were set up for strucktualturay lower rates. In the 1930s, 40s and 50s, lower rates. I dont agree with Credit Suisse more of a fact pattern that is going to happen in the future. Do you agree with Deutsche Bank that says Mission Impossible when describing the fed. The market is pricing in a one in five price cut for today and a 100 possibility in july it is relatively easy for the fed to disappoint risky assets hiyperbole is good in the headline with Mission Impossible based on where the market is pricing it market says done deal. Yes so, to that point. Lets assume that the fed does what all of us expects is going to happen. Lets assume they do that. Take patience exactly, the one thing they have to do everybody is expecting it. Assume they do that. I dont think the market rallies after 2 00 today i think the market is flat to down because we have been up 7 off the middle of the lows we turned around when jay powell basically said to the market, ive got your back thats in the market i would not be surprised if you trail off this afternoon after the announcement, but is that Mission Impossible no, look, what we have to remember about fed future probabilities is that they change on a dime so, okay, you get one rate cut in july, i wouldnt price anything in after that i would wait and see what the Economic Data is and the fed futures going out to december have no meaning to me whatsoever what happens if they cut rates today as a surprise . Scares everybody i dont think it scares i dont think it scares. You think the market i think it would scare people they see something that other people dont see theres no reason to cut rates today. It seems they would have this data that the rest of us havent been privy to. So, i think the possibility of that is so long. If they cut rates today, trump comes out and says jay powell is the best chair of the fed ive ever seen in my life. That will be the first thing that happens and he listened to me. The second thing that will happen, the market will trade up because the market is not thinking like youre thinking. Youre being too rational. The market will trade up the reason why i dont think the fed will cut in july is because were in front of an election. So, now, its all about the verbiage and all about the messaging that trump does and what he believes hes got to get a deal. Far enough out from the election to cover it but he launched his Campaign Last night he has a faster timetable than either what is reasonable or what should be right. So, hes going to push towards a deal so, i think what will come out of g20 is positive messaging and thats going to change, start to change Investor Confidence not that we need a change. 1 off the highs and change ceo confidence possibly and messaging there going into earnings thats why i think the fed does not come in july letser go into your wheel house. Rates are low everywhere in some places, theyre getting a lot lower. Where is the opportunity then in this current environment for somebody like you . Its more overseas right now. Huge opportunity in europe simply because of what was discussed, brexit. More possible distress else where other than here . Yes because here what is clear is youre not going into a recession. What youll have here is sort of default rate will stay where it is you may have more stress opportunities, but in europe because of the uncertainly on brexit, a lot more to do because people are very nervous. In asia, a lot to do why . Because china is slowing down. So, wherever like going from 6 to 4 growth, thats great if youre in the u. S if youre out in asia, that means everything slowed down by 25 . What is happening here weve gone from sort of 3 to 1. 5 and were all nervous about that more opportunities there i would say if here were going into a recession and if you remember at the beginning of the year, thats what everybody thought. And all of a sudden now, everybody is like how much longer is this expansion going the narrative has changed. So, i think for us here in the u. S. , the opportunities were seeing are much more stress as opposed to distress. Does chinas ability to stimulate its economy seemingly end the prospects of a trade deal make some of those bets more risky given the unknown variables in play there . The problem in asia, china can do whatever it wants the biggest thing theyve done is theyve cut back on sort of their banks lending money outside of china what youre finding, that is happening around the world that banks are tightening. So that theres more opportunities for firms like ours because were lending money. Were doing the direct lending and were stepping in and were charging at high rates in asia were charging 15 to 20 . So, think about it you have a zero rate environment or 2 environment and were able to charge anywhere between 7 to 10 times that amount you view that as extremely low, if not, i know its dangerous to say, no risk. But ive heard you describe it as almost that every time were lending in asia, were doing it with two times the collateral value im not saying things cant go wrong. They always can. But for whatever reason that lack of capital is giving us a huge opportunity that we can lend quite a bit of money. Marc, yesterday i was talking about scott with china and im not saying they have run out of money, im not saying that at all. I am saying of the easiest capital theyve got, they already deployed and thats why its creating the opportunity for you. Some of this other powder might be wet powder because the folks over there dont want it at the terms that its available and thats why yours looks so attractive is that what youre finding . Were lending money for one to two years right, for us, we have the collateral value and people today, what is actually interesting in asia, people overvalue their equity they would rather pay 15 , 20 here, we actually, were like, no, at 15 , here is equity yeah. Thats the big difference its a real big change of mentality and thats whats happening. Thats why you can charnel more out in asia today. I believe it was a couple years ago or so and my timing could be off six months here or tl there. I think you called on this show energy debt a once in a Generation Opportunity or a once in a lifetime opportunity or something to that respect and youre back buying in the u. S. Energy debt. Yeah, so, it was once in a generation that generation waws about a yer and a half a short one it was great and you didnt think youd see the prices again and then things took off and now theyve gone lower theyve come in. So, youve got that opportunity, again. And id say to you today, the market doesnt like energy right, so youre finding valuations are so low and were finding huge opportunities but, i mean, i think were right. I think, i think ultimately valuations were buying them today they should work out but the market is saying, look, today i wouldnt be buying energy what will it take for the market to like energy . High oil prices, thats his bet. Thats where im at thats what the market does. Thats manifestation but you have issues with iran. We could be at war any time. Youve got blowing up of tankers. You have every day the headlines are that opec is going to tighten, again so, normally you would see everything there and the economy is not terrible. I know if the economy goes great guns, of course. But absent that which nobody sees and europe hasnt, you mentioned hasnt grown europe has never grown aside from germany i mean, they just dont grow 1 . 1 . I agree with you. What will it take i think what happened is when were looking at all these companies, were investing based on oil being at sort of 40. Right. And, yet, the market is saying, i dont care even though where oil is trading. Were saying, look, were buying at such a big discount and the market is saying, i dont care about that thats the problem and i dont know when that is going to change what is interesting i live in houston, work in dallas and we consistently see these Companies Made it through, you know, the energy lets say the belly of the Energy Bear Market theyre so well run. These companies are fantastic. Theyre generating a lot of Cash Technology with fracking has allowed them to really cut the cost of their capital. So, i think these companies are which is a doubleedge sword because it brings a lot more capacity the mentality and the Energy Business is very much of the gun slinger type mentality and they have really battened down the hatches and running highquality companies and businesses that are generating a lot of cash flow ultimately, you say when will that change . You never know when sentiment changes, but it will these companies that survive, just fantastic you can continue to get a great dividend and just kind of wait for the Capital Appreciation to occur. You can play this, as well, from the debt and ecwithquity se your Stock Ownership seems to me to be larger than it normally is, especially in energy it is but thats because we bought the debt and converted it to equity. Not that we went out and bought the equity we bought the debt and converted it and now you have given those companies anywhere between two and five years marc, i see clients coming to me with large equity firms getting into big offerings being pushed by the wire houses. Are you seeing a lot of money out there chasing too few deals . Is that something youre concerned about . Here in the u. S. In particular what youre seeing is the shadow banking thats exactly what i mean. And right now there is a huge focus because people are getting out of equities, in my opinion and say i want to do lending and 8 to 10 in the u. S i dont know where equities are going and if i can get senior secured and charge 8 to 10 , im going to do that by the iwa, thats great, as long as the economy doesnt go down what i think people always miss is that youre making a levered bet on the economy as long as the credit is good, which is where my concern comes in usually when this much money is out there, you fund bad Business Models im glad we went there. I want to take a quick break and come back and talk to you about what some say is a looming credit crisis. The leverage loan space and others, as well. Well get marc lasrys take on that when we come back more with marc lasry see how hes playing several big names, next. Plus, seema just found in the market unusual activity is ahead. Our partners on how the dollar behaves in a rate hike cycle. For more go to cnbc. Com kensho Halftime Report is back in two minutes. Your daily dashboard from fidelity. A visual snapshot of your investments. Key portfolio events. All in one place. Because when its decision time. You need decision tech. Only from fidelity. I felt completely helpless. Trashed online, my entire career and business were in jeopardy. I called reputation defender. They were able to restore my good name. If youre under attack, i recommend calling reputation defender. And consider joining their groundbreaking campaign to give every american the right to remove old, inaccurate search results by going to righttobeforgotten. Org. If you have search results that are wrong or unfair, call reputation defender at 18778668555. Hello, folks, im jon najarian, if you would like to send us a question, wed love to answer them. Send them to cnbc. Com halftime well answer as many as we can at the end of the show thank you. Welcome back, everybo. Im sue herera the u. S. Navy says the mines used to attack a japaneseowned tanker last week resemble similar by iran. Pieces of debris that irans revolutionary guard left behind. The attack occurring on the vessel was courageous and it does bear a striking resemblance to that of which is being publicly displayed in the Iranian Military parades distinguishing features. Iranian president rouhani says pulling out of Nuclear Commitments was a minimum pressure that tehran could adopt. Rouhani said iran will not negotiate with the u. S. Under pressure. A new survey from aaa says driving high is less dangerous than driving drunk more than 13 of americans viewed driving within an hour of using marijuana as only slightly dangerous or not dangerous at all. Youre up to date. That is the news update this hour scott, back to you sue herera. Lets get back to this topic i want to talk to you about. Brian moynihan says u. S. Economy is on solid footing except for one potential trouble spot, leverage loans quote, it will be ugly for those economies if the economy slows down and they cant carry the debt and then restructure it and the usual carnage goes on. Do you think hes right . I think if you think about banks, banks like b of a and citibank are lending and five times over collateral. You have to make sure if youre lending 100 Million Companies making quite a bit more than that on all this new debt that is coming out on the bdc that jon talked about best case, 1. 5 or 2 times. Youre taking a lot more credit risk and thats what hes worried about. Because its loans that b of a would not make so, right b of a will make those loans. Thats the only reason bdcs are and theyre charging a lot more. So, we had christopher wailen on who said the following. I want to listen to that and react to that. High yield spreads are going up and in the nonbank sector and unicorns like tesla that are assumed to have access and the mortgage space, theyre not making money what do you think i mean, the point is the straw that breaks the camels back in this area is one big potential bankruptcy, not necessarily whalen saying that tesla is the one that does it but you kind of get the point. I do. I dont know if that is correct. I think it will make things more difficult. But, youve knve got to have me than just one. You have to have a number of these. At the end of the day, that is what is going to shut this down. Right now you have more people who are in equities that are leaving equities and buying debt so, if you take a look at everything that is going on. Gso just raised a ton of money and everybody is raising quite a bit of money in this space and because theres huge demand for direct lending in the United States and youre charging anywhere between sort of 8 to 12 . But, its different like in asia what were doing where were charging 15 to 20, its a oneyear loan. Here none of these are oneyear loans. Five to sevenyear loans and youre making a levered bet on the economy. Thats where i think you can have issues. Thats really it i mean, if they were making oneyear loans, i would say that is not an issue. Making a five to sevenyear loan, you better be right on the credit where do you think the economy is going to be, lets say election time in the fall of 20. Are you, this sounds like youre somewhat concerned, not necessarily in the immediate term, but the not too distant term, too. A lot of it is what the fed is doing right. If the economy is flat to up 1 , thats actually fine for credit. What were buying at sort of 70 cents, 80 cents is good. Youre not going to have a recession. And the question is, are we going to recession today or five years from now i think a year from now the economy is going to be fine and still growing at 1 . Nothing great happening. Its a little bit of what steve said were becoming europe. And, you know, were going to be growing at 1 or 2 . Thats not real growth thats not good for equities also not bad enough, so to speak, for this credit crisis to take place or is it . Well, maybe it is another variable involved from my perspective you want some inflation if youre one of these borrowers you want to inflate your way out of this. We dont know where inflation is going to be a year from now. Youll have insight into this. Lets say we get a credit crisis, scott. Is this bad for the banks . The whole banking shadow system and that is the right word the private equity firms feel the heat is that as bad as say ten years ago when the was the Banks Holding all these loans . I dont think it is i dont think so either i think its great for the banks. The banks coming in to relend and theyre going to say, look, you lent a billion dollars and now were going to give you 300, 400. Youll have losses in all these different groups so, really, the people are going to lose it and Pension Plans and investors who invested in these on the public stocks to your point, there is so much complacency there because what is also lost on is when a lot of these bdcs are lending money, they are lending money that helps these companies where their first years payments or two years payments are in the bag. You cant really tell what the credit quality is except on a lagging factor you will destroy, in my view, the individual investor that is sort of like not ultraHigh Net Worth, but ultra High Net Worth and the traditional private equities firms dont have the direct lending and i think theyre dangerous and we have no idea what the impact would be nor how big the shadow Banking Industry what works for equities. None is good for equities because in order to meet their daytoday living they have to take money out of the equity market because its going away. Not to mention the first whiff you dont want to see credit crisis on the front page of any newspaper because you know what the obvious impact is going to be. Marc just made an excellent point. You dont want to see credit crisis or credit crunch. If the banks are hobbled and you just made a great point. If that happens, you wont have a credit crunch, there will still be lending the life blow to the economy will still be there and wont be bad and will be a crisis i would love to get your opinion, marc. You have 2 trillion in drythe s thats money committed, but not called thats a tremendous, we think a tremendous backdrop to the economy in general because if you get this credit hiccup, a lot of the private, there is a lot of private debt money sitting there in dry powder to come in and buy these assets and i think they will i think what will end up happening is private equity firm a has an issue private equity firm b goes, hey, so sorry i hope you dont mind, were going to crush your soul and were going to come in and buy this at this price or theyll buy that debt at a discount. At a huge discount and come in and get control. Youre going to keep seeing that, i think youre right people are going to lose huge amounts of money and somebody else will make quite a bit of money. Let me go through a few moves that you made recently and things you still are in that we talked about in the past i mentioned tesla in terms of what whalen is saying. You still own the bonds, right i think today theyre high 80s, low 90s how do you view the current state of tesla, financial state . Its got 40 billion of equity value and its got 7 billion of bonds. And, so, right now the market is 47 billion enterprise value youre getting paid, you know, for us, weve done very well you get about a 7 current which is pretty good i think youre oversecured today. But if all of a sudden that equity value drops to around sort of 20 billion or 15 billion, then its a little bit, the points that are made are people going to start getting out of that and i think for us, that point we probably get out of those bonds is because i dont want to take that risk. Right now im more than adequately covered i dont think you have issues. But were lending, were also doing puts with vendor claims. So, vendors are coming to us and saying give me a put on tesla. We buy those claims at literally what is happening theyre paying us one point a month and we could stop it at any month so, youre making low teens types of returns on something where its got 30 billion to 40 billion of equity value. Kind of hard to get hurt doesnt mean it doesnt happen, but plenty of time to get out. Doc, you have a thought on that strategy . I love it the same way Warren Buffett made his money. Selling but he does it in Insurance Companies through geico and so forth thats how warren got rich he didnt get rich on shirts for Berkshire Hathaway as long as, i wouldnt do the put and give somebody a twoyear thats the difference. If you can do every month, every month we could determine do we still want to take this risk so, if all of a sudden teslas eqqu equity value drops to 10 billion, were out the market is telling you there is more risk so, thats what we are or would it go to 2 a month instead of 1 . Well keep charging more. Youre out of ge bonds. Yes thats correct is that same sort of strategy is the market screaming more risk so you got out or the situation in ge feeling better the bonds moved up so we ended up getting out what ends up happening is we would love to buy things at 70, 75 cents on dollar and when it gets up to 90, 95. There isnt as much room, obviously, for Capital Appreciation so, for us, well get out of these and the market will come back down or go to par, right. Were not trying i dont think were good enough to figure out something going from 95 to par. Close enough in your mind in my mind, 75 to par once it gets above 90, we start looking at selling it is a statement in and of itself that maybe the waters have calmed a bit. It calmed quite a bit revlon is a new, revlon bonds. So, the main reason is we started buying those bonds in the mid70s and the bonds, the unsecured bonds. So, just the unsecured bonds are due in a year and a half and, yet, the secured bonds, so, what is above you, is due in four years so, we sort of have the hammer in that. Or the bond holders do so, youre able to buy those bonds. Right now the market cap of revlon is 1. 5 billion we sort of view that hes not going to let this company go into bankruptcy and refinance those bonds in a year and a half or he would lose control of the company. And also theyve got 350 million of a revolver and theres 500 million in bonds. So, were pretty comfortable well get paid out what are the coupon on those . 6 , 7 . The current ends up being around 8. So, youre just getting paid quite a bit. The difference is youre getting paid to wait thats really what i like. So, lets do this marc has given us some great ideas and insights into the credit side of the world and the distressed debt side lets go stock side to satisfy that, scratch that itch, as well weiss, i want to talk about some of your moves. Added to boeing stock and bought calls. As you recall, last week i was actually short calls hedging the position and, actually, not even as a hedge. Trying to take premium out premium was huge i decided to play it the other way. When news start to seep out about things a little bit and he hadnt announced an extended meeting with xi, i made a bet that there would be something happening. And boeing is ground zero on the trade conflict thats number one. Number two, started to pick up, you know, i was in london last week beginning of last week and started to read about how the european regulators are getting more positive on improving it. All that adds up to a stock that is still on depressed levels my largest position, actually. And its worked out very well. I think the calls are up more than 100 in two days. So, you bought the smh, the Semi Conductor etf quick market exposure purely a trade for market exposure how does that mesh with your view that you dont think the fed is going to cut now or july and that the smh is going to do well in an environment where the overall market may very well not. Well, dont assume ill be in the smh come july, right so, thats a near term play and theyre up a few percent since i bought them in just a couple of days ill probably be out before they go to g20. Purely trade im not married to it. My core position i went back about a week or week and a half ago and that was, you get lucky every once in a while. I didnt sell it near the top and sold it and made a good profit and bought it lower and its doing good. I know you have been busy making some moves, well get to those. Option bulls beating up retail stock is about to turn around jon has that and unusual activities lets give you a sector check. 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In jellyfish. In clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve shortterm memory. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Welcome back nordstrom down nearly 30 this year traders are betting on a big rebound, so says jon najarian. Who knows, maybe its the guy sitting next to me on the desk that is in here buying, talk about distressed marc lasry. This one is distressed down 30 year to date. They came in today and theyre aggressively buying calls. But, again, this isnt a marc lasry play these calls have two days to live theyre buying june calls for the most part. All of last week they traded 7,000 calls. Today they traded 7,000 at about the first 15 minutes and, as we came on air. I believe they traded 26,000 calls in jw nordstrom. Most are june and they started buying out there in july, as well when it is that short term, scott, thats what i love. Seeing a big chunk like this of those 3250s which are just out of the money, they were buying the 33, as well im in those and im also in those julys for next week. Take another look at another quickly. Lennar, len. They were buying 5150 calls in july so, i like this activity as you can see, the stock right now about 1 under that strike price. I bought these probably about two to threeweek trade, scott some folks were cutting some of these guys, some of the builders and down 3 to 4 . To see this one down only 1 , tells you or 2 rather, tells you something. Come on back over thank you thats jon najarian just to his retail point the stress retail, you not for us. I mean the things were looking at is sort of Neiman Marcus and ends up being jcpenney the problem is i dont think on nordstrom i can buy the bonds that cheap for us, were not going to play in the equity, were going to play in the debt and need the debt to get hit. The countdown to the fed, it rolls on coming up 2 00 eastern time. News conference 2 00 eastern time from chairman jay powell. Halftime report is back little more than two mns. Driverless cars. All ground personnel. Or trips to mars. 4. 95. Delivery drones or the latest phones. 4. 95. No matter what you trade, at fidelity its just 4. 95 per online u. S. Equity trade. 11 months ago facebook was at 217. Were still 15 off that level but as Pippa Stevens report, technicians say watch this number if it hits it, the stock will shoot straight up. Go to tradingnation. Cnbc. Com now. Hi, everybody. Im kelly evans and heres what is coming up on the exchange today. We continue the countdown to the fed decision and this as the president takes another swing. Huawei founder and ceo would he pick up the phone if President Trump called him the answer to that and more ahead. Its only been a day since facebook announced its Digital Currency and congress is already llcaing for a delay. The Halftime Report is back the Halftime Report is back after thiswith cancer. Diagnosed osamah successfully treating it still remains one of the most enormous challenng us tod. We realized that, if we developed the technology that could take 2dimensional patient imaging and convert it into 3dimensional holographic renderings, we could enable surgeons to dissect around the cancer so we can precisely remove it. When we first started, we felt like this might just not be possible because Computing Power just wasnt there, but verizon 5g ultra wideband will give us the ability to do this. We wont rest until we see this technology being able to change lives. Is where people first gathered to form the stock exchangeee, which brought people together to invest in all the things that move us forward. Every day, invesco combines ideas with technology, data with inspiration, investors with solutions. Because the possibilities of life and investing are greater when we come together. [ slow dance music plays ] sfx record scratch music plays throughout [ watch me walk by Spencer Ludwig ] yo dj, can i put in a request . Dont have no sass about this im on my way im on my way cant take no class about this im on my way im on my like this this is a moment you plan for. To start your investment plan, find an advisor at massmutual. Com sfx [ mnemonic ] welcome back to the Halftime Report this is futures now. The tenyear yield cautioning climbing higher as investors eagerly anticipate todays fed decision on whether or not to trade rates. Lets start with you where is a tenyear yield headed next if the fed does not cut rates . Well, it looks like yields are moving a little bit higher regardless if they cut or dont cut. But the down trend is still lower. So what youre seeing is basically pressure coming out of the ecb, europe, those Interest Rates, the german boom being negative people flowing into the highestyielding possibility and thats the United States here. So i think what you have to watch right now is the 2year, 10year spread because if the fed is hawkish, that yield curve could go inverted which could signal a recession lets say 12 years down the road. And theyre going to be forced to be dovish thats what you want to watch is that two tenyear and see how that moves after the meeting were at 0. 9 at the tenyear how significant is the level we are currently trading at i think its very significant. We last hit close to 2 in september of 2017, and a longterm chart it definitely seems like 2 means something. I think this move is fizzling out. I think that what brian talked about, about negative yields pushing money here, i thought that was a great story at 3 10year yields but less of a story now. I think these yields will bounce off these levels and go towards 230. Thank you for more on the fed and all the latest trades head over to our futures now. E Halftime Report is back with this is my headquarters. This is where i trade and manage my portfolio. Since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets final trades after this. Th im plugged into equities trade confirmed and i have Global Access 24 7. Meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. Visit learnfuturestoday. Com to what adding futures can do for you. Dear tech, lets talk. We have a pretty good relationship. Youve done a lot of good for the world. But i feel like you have the potential to do so much more. Can we build ai without bias . How do we bake security into everything we do . We need tech that helps people understand each other. That understands my business. Weve got some work to do. And we need your help. We need your support. Lets expect more from technology. Lets put smart to work. Welcome back. Final few moments with marc lasry. Lets talk politics for a second sure. You held a fundraiser for Kamala Harris last night yes shes for the green new deal, medicare for all, the rent relief act is she a socialist no. Look, i think a lot of these things are aspirational, right and i think for you know, for me if i look at the green new deal, theres a lot of things in it that are beneficial and that youd like to do its a little bit when sort of kennedy said lets go to the moon, right . It looked that was a goal, its aspirational, it ended up doing a number of things that were very positive i think at the end of the day, if you sort of look at what democrats are trying to do, whether its biden or its harris or a few of the others, i think it is extremely you sort of look at it and it is all aspirational i think what ends up happening is the press or republicans say, look, if you put into effect next year, its going to cause real issues. I actually agree with it, its going to be over the next 10, 20 years. But you understand why some would look at those sorts of policies on a platform and suggest thats a socialist platform thats what the far left side of the partys its a goal of what you would like to do, and you will end up being able to do some of that, not all of it. Okay. Youve donated to gillibrand, buttigieg, klobuchar, booker, no biden . Not yet, i will i will end up giving to him also is kamala your horse or are you still open right now i think shes probably the best candidate. I like her look, i think you need to have somebody who has some new ideas. I think ultimately at the end of the day she should be the nominee, and well underup seeing nba, got this question from one of our viewers who asks sepp sal is his name will our Milwaukee Bucks window be as large as once in a Generation Energy debt window . I mean, thats harsh. [ laughter ] how much upside this is a Milwaukee Bucks fan. There are a lot of them out there. There are a lot of them weve become americas team, so im happy about that but i think we have a lot of potential. I think if were able to resign everybody, weve got a pretty big window and a lot of it is going to be sort of how the team plays next year look, i thought we shouldve been there at the nba finals i think hopefully next year we get there. I got less than 30 seconds. Big spenders in free agency when it begins in a few days . For us . Yeah. I think were going to do what we need to do we are going to focus on our folks. Thats who were going to be spending the money on. Boy, youve got these sports answers down all right, thats avenues marc lasry. Who has the final check . Boeing. Cvs caterpillar all right the exchange begins now. Thank you, scott hi, everybody. Heres whats ahead. The final countdown, the feds decision on Interest Rates is just an hour away. Will they bow to pressure by markets and the president to cut rates . Or do they think the economy is Strong Enough to stand on its own. Well find out and should i stay or should i go u. S. Companies have a decision to make. Well have the latest moves from apple and harleydavidson. Plus, another retailer warning about prices alphabet shareholders are speaking out, and apparently, dom, adam sandler still brings in a ton of viewers