Song name the band four days, with the 20 rate cut in june and nearly a 19 in july, as Jerome Powell pushes for him to cut rates and disappointing data from china and the tenyear lows and is this the perfect recipe for a rate cut what does that mean for the market guy, welcome back. Thanks, mel its great to be back. You survived the Dominican Republic of all of the crazy places to go, with that said, obscuring the Dominican Republic in my opinion is the fact that President Trump saying they should cut rates and to me its madness at the highest level i still think the market is pricing in way too dovish the fed and it can only disappoint next week. The fix it 15 in this environment makes zero sense to me dan listen, i think we can look beyond june. Were not going to get a cut next week so it comes down to july and at that point well know what the outcome if there is a meeting between president xi and President Trump at the end of the meeting and then well start to get more earnings and that could dictate whether or not we have that hike towards the end of july. So to me were going to talk about semis a little bit and i expect other preannouncements before q2 ends and if theres only a kick the can announcement on trade i think thats the sort of thing that investors would start to price a higher likelihood of a cut and thats where it is slightly to the down side no matter what happens, the market is higher theres only a 20 chance that we do get a cut the fed sounds hawkish. Theyll tiptoe their way into a cut. Let me clarify this. Thats the chatter. If its as dovish as the market wants it to sound which equals hawkish the consensus that theyre going to remove the word patience out of the language and if they dont remove that that would be the equivalent of being hawkish. I think no matter what, the market moves higher from here. Its goldilocks. Its disappointing from the Market Perception relative to what expectations were and the bond market at 208 being look, the tenyear to me screams no growth and the growth scare is much worse than an inflation scare even though it will reflect Inflation Expectations and whats going on here is i think people are pricing in a hefty part of Global Central Bank easing and the reality is what the final easing is going to be is not going to give you anything back, and the dollar is 55 basesis points and thats not good for risk assets and the dollar yen is actually moving at the same time in that direction and look at Commodity Prices and look at anything thats reflation oriented and its telling you its not a great time to be in anything cyclical. Gold is at 4month highs. Weve been talking about it for a while and the gold and commodity is what we havent seen in quite some time. In my world its about to break out of the upside and its been under the auspices of the dollar being strong so if this dollar does weaken in a meaningful way which it should, and gold is telling you, in my opinion that the equity market is way ahead of itself. The equity market is above all its moving averages. So i look at it and i agree theres a lot of things that are negative and headwinds for the overall market, but the market is telling us something. It wants to move higher. Its shaking a lot of this stuff off. How is that telling us. And 2 above alltime highs and its shaken off growth concerns for quite some time all it cares about is the fed and whether the fed is hawkish or dovish. The last two times the s p was approaching 2900 and it was january 2018 and the fall of last year and you could make the same argument. Im not telling you its wrong that was the more constructive narrative about the s p making higher highs, so if were right back at that same spot the risks are increasing for that growths scare. I think weve shaken off a lot of those concerns from the last time this happened until now if the market does make new highs, the story has to be, and were all missing something and the market starts to slow griendz in t grind in the summer environment, i think were missing new highs. By the way, when someone says i dont know not agree with you, basically means i dont agree with you at all. If we think about the fed and steves actually right fighting the fed has been thank you. Steve is once again correct here fighting the fed has been a losing proposition for ten years. To the extent that weve seen this before where people have questioned the Global Economy and weve seen the stock market continue to chug along so to the extent that i dont believe you can see the s p go careening down to 2650 is the one level that everybody is targeting if we actually have a real, and its a 5 correction my point is simply, i think positioning expectations and sentiment right now are the biggest issue. The economy is not the issue its all about what positioning is and people are position said on both sides. So we have a treacherous calendar in the next few weeks how do you position yourself i do disagree with steve about being constructive on equities here. We have rates where we are and theyre not going to turn back to being hawkish which is where they were in december of 2018, so thats not happening, but i think the Interest Rate market has moved ahead of that a little bit, and i think there is the potential and you use the term goldie locks and im not sure it makes a whole heck of a lot of sense and if you look at the tenyear yield below 2 and we had a dollar that was strengthening and commodities going lower and the same things were in place, and i just think its not a fed policy mistake and it is a protracted trade war that could deflate the Global Economy which is fragile right now. If i say goldilocks, if we have a weaker economy and then the fed is more likely to cut rates. If trade talks go south, the fed is more likely to cut rates and if we have a stronger economy but can the fed save everything the market told us last week that the only thing that they care about or two weeks ago, the only thing they care about is where the fed is positioned. They dont care about trade. The market rallied and the positioning got so short off that recent low that i think the market was caught offsides to the bear side. We created another asset bubble and whatever you want to say and the fed has targeted asset prices, so its not going to happen tomorrow and if you think about what happens with growth and we talk about the bbb threat about where the biggest tranche of death exists and for a lot of companies if we go into protracted growth, i do think well see credit issues thats not just significant, but very significant. Weve seen moments where the credit markets in the last six months especially with periods of liquidity drying up have been devastating, frankly, to the downside look, the reason yet fed is not going to cut is because it is not cratering right now and the overall dynamic in terms of consumption trend and if you look at the isn services its not so bad and if you look at the surveys on a regional level theyve been telling you that the companies and hiring is cautious based upon trade dynamics and its not telling you that the business is falling apart and on. If the fed doesnt cut the markets will probably sell off of course, they will. Okay. And if theres a trade war then the markets will sell off. So where is the risk to the down side didnt the market sell off already . Look at where mel put you, steve . If i agree with her i lose. The markets have played that act before weve had a trade war and broadcom didnt play that card do you think the market judging from broadcoms fullyear Sales Forecast the market has not incorporated that into the thinking. In the semis, everyone was thinking about the back half of the year that was going to be better than the first half what happened is they supplied up a lot and then the back half if that doesnt come through my argument was that that would be the most Obvious Group to respond in advance to 300 billion. Were just digesting some of this right now. The sims started selling off last june and they led the market pullback and they were the first to sell off. Let me tell you a couple of things that i see. Look at microsoft which is a couple of percent from the alltime highs and 10 in a Straight Line over the last week and a half or whatever, that is a defensive name in my opinion and we talked about them last night in the show, and walmart, costco, target and they were all defensive names and ultimately a trade war will hit them and this is the most important thing to me about the broadcom moment and were seeing the headwinds of the trade war and were not seeing it in the finished goods level and why theyre trailing so well and we get downbeat earnings guides because of the uncertainty about the supply chains and the disruption from the trade war and thats what weighs on the stock market i think with each passing day were less close to getting a trade deal and ill say it again and were 16 months into this u. S. China thing i dont think were any closer now than we were six or seven months ago and despite what President Trump says, i know when theres a deal to be made i dont think thats true. I think the china ease held all of the cards and im probably one of the only people that think that if you want to be some play, bigcap pharma is trading okay and gold miners are trading up to the upside and the fact that Procter Gambles trading where it is to me, thats actually really scary Procter Gamble trading at 24 times forward earnings makes no sense to me. The chart master says theres more pain ahead for the beaten down group plus chew on this, another hot ipo shares of chewy surging and the next hot ipo could be just around the corner and Mark Zuckerberg is about to go full crypto when facebook is expected to unveil its cryptocurrency platform and well bring you the latest details were live in times square in new york city. Much more fast money right after this plants capture co2. What if other kinds of plants captured it too . If these industrial plants had technology that captured carbon like trees we could help lower emissions. Carbon capture is Important Technology and experts agree. Thats why were working on ways to improve it. So plants. Can be a little more. Like plants. Welcome back to fast money , look at the cool crowd that turned out outside of the New York Stock Exchange for chewys ipo and thats not all, shares of the pet food company surging nearly 60 today during a ferocious first day of trading lets get to leslie picker down at the nyse with more on this. Hey, les thats right, melissa chewy shares soaring today, up nearly 60 in their debut. Its their largest initial Public Offering ever chewy and Parents Company petsmart sharing a combined 1 billion to investors and the deal was massively upsized and priced above a boosted range and selling more than expected and it received the bulk of the proceeds and the retailer acquired chewy two years ago and its worth quadruple the amount. So what brought investors in the door today well, americans are spending more on their pets and they are spending more money online chewy says its customers each spent 334 on average in 2018. Chewy says its sail sales grew with increased spending without add being more customers it grew 68 and consumers are pivoting when buying in stores and online 14 of pet Industry Sales in 2017 up from 4 in 2015 and it was projected to grow 25 in three years, but as those trends hold, her and more consumers are noticing supermarkets, warehouses and Ecommerce Companies and amazon have been peking a big push into the pet world and if they choose to lower prices that could put an even further dent into chewys negative margin, melissa. Leslie picker at the New York Stock Exchange tim seymour, do you like chewy i dont like chewy. I do think people are willing to do and pay almost anything for their pets and good for fido and its about where is the mode of the business and its exactly that, Big Box Stores are becoming very competitive and youre seeing private label stuff so no, im not chasing flewy. Good for fido, good for dodger my boy dodger we spent a lot of time over the last few months talking about some of the smaller float ones that have done well, zoom, revolve is zipping right now to me it will be interesting when we get slack and the direct listing and we have one big part with spotify which was up last year and it was up 9 and we dont talk about it a heck of a lot and theres been a lot of debate about direct listing versus the ipos and to me i think that the slack thing up, supposedly 17 billion from last year when they last raised at 7 or 8 billion and that could be telling for broad tech chewy loses money. We decided to pick the ones that we want to reward that lose money. It lost 268 million why at this stock at this point in its growth period, why would they lose money still and to tims point, this is not a retailer i would go into there if it was a stand alone brick and mortar. Really . Yeah. Theyre losing money. If there was brick and mortar at least you can make the case and you dont want to go on amazon and buy it and you want to get an expertise about your pet and this is online, why dont i go to walmart or amazon . Apparently the Customer Service is amazing on chewy. They will send you, for instance, a portrait of flip to hang up or they send condolence letters when they learn youve lost your pet. Thats pretty normal, right its amazing. Somewhat normal family. Thats what i think. We have three dogs. Im telling you right now, if i say lets go out and buy me something the kids will look at me like ive got nine heads. When i say to buy the dog something they race to the car the argument they made was two years ago when petsmart bought them for 3. 5 million and i think the world is in a better place for chew py. Why did they lose 330 the year before . It almost doesnt make sense it gets to the argument that we have on this desk. Is it for shareholders theyre spending money on growth you like amazon, dont you yes, but amazon can turn it on and off whenever amazon wants to in cannabis land the Companies Offering cbd pet food and products and it has pet products these things are being lifted off the shelves like crazy. Theres a moat around that. I think so. More there because there truly is a regulatory dynamic. All right for more on the chewy ipo head over to cnbc. Com im melissa lee, youre watching fast money on cnbc, first in money worldwide. The stocks about to trip up. Hell tell you how to profit if shares stop short. Plus did anyone read that article about bitcoin i sent you yes, sheldon, and now facebook is about to go full crypto, and it has investors diving back into the stock weve got those details. Theres much more fast money after this for your heart. Your joints. Or your digestion. So why wouldnt you take something for the most important part of you. Your brain. With an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in Clinical Trials to improve shortterm memory. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Is where people first gathered to form the stock exchangeee, which brought people together to invest in all the things that move us forward. Every day, invesco combines ideas with technology, data with inspiration, investors with solutions. Because the possibilities of life and investing are greater when we come together. Welcome back to fast money. Crypto plans are getting support and more than a Dozen Companies including visa, mastercard, paypal and uber are backing libra which is set to launch next year. The new digital coin will be connected to governmentissued currencies to create a more stable system which has plagued other cryptocurrencies so lets get the two cents on the block chain. I write a great note from rbc capital and hes talking about two reasons why its going in this direction and its payments and commerce and those two things with the stable coin attached to their user base and its focused on asia and they have about a billion active users and what they have here in north america and its not about the actual hardware and its about the operability of the apps that they have and theyre doing payments and commerce on we chat and this is a focus over there. So to me, i think this is a huge, huge potential thing we know theyre not in china, but this creates a scenario, but they can be in china that dont really rely on social networks isnt it amazing that with all of what facebook has and this is a testament to where people are taking their eye off the ball and now you throw in bitcoin on top of this gain and its up 38 already and advertisers are just jumping back to facebook and with that stat in asia, 4 to 1, i think thats a tremendous tailwind for facebook and its almost making people forget about the problems theyve recently had i think if youre in an environment where regulatory headwinds and crypto is not your answer the irony here is that crypto could be a form of security and offering facebook users something that wont be the rest of the platform and its an ability to this one is a stable coin, too. That adds security its the antithesis, but think about it, they have 2. 5 billion monthly active users and theyll give fuel to the operations so to me its very different than bitcoin and the bitcoin network. I have an excellent memory. Oh, like an elephant. Like an elephant. For the first time in a while it sat up well, and the december 24th low and the recent high and the 50 retracement of the move was 160 and we traded down to 161 and we had a full conversation and for the first time in a while it sets up to the long side and at least for the first time in my world, for a long time, i think you can trade facebook with the reasonable stop to the downside looking to take the alltime high whenever that was, back in august of last year. Not bad for an old guy. Why do you think that the dynamics that weve seen with the regulators is something that is going to be supportive to the technical call youre right on that point. Nothing has changed and listen, until recently its traded poorly and that move, that day on the volume we saw was enough. Steve made one point and the advertisers are coming back and they actually never left and theyre telling you that the advertisers never left and all of these concerns about privacy and it doesnt mean that usage has been down and there are studies and thats in the core of the facebook platform. Why are you snickering . Im having a good time. I miss everybody i cant be happy when im mad, people say im mad, and i am happy. Tim it might be defensive in the environment and unitedhealthcare certainly went through a difficult period six months ago and has been working its way out of and earnings 20plus percent and unh is the stock now. Grasso . Ge, ive been long on this for a while and every time i start to feel optimistic about it, steve puts out a negative call on the stock and im starting to feel optimistic about it again, buy it here. Dan so its the start of something and if you track the semiconductors and well show you how to do it on options actions. We get the best pages in all of cnbc. And we have this great kid. Evan cue, geno last day here and he was from brooklyn, goodlooking man brings the chair over. Newmont mining, mel thanks for everything, evan dont go anywhere, options akd is up next so, every day, we put our latest technology and unrivaled network to work. The United StatesPostal Service makes more ecommerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the country. Hi there were live on the nasdaq marketsite carter, ko and dan are getting ready for the big show heres whats coming up. Disney shares have been on a magical rally oand one of the traders says its run is far from over hell tell you how to play it. Plus that sums up what happened to semis today and carter and dan say its about to get much worse for the group. They will break it down. And later, at athleisure stocks are on fire this year, and mike ko