Earlier today before turning negative were just off the lows of the day. Rates are in focus the tenyear is pushing past two six. Pete, whats happening we erase a 280point gain the other day. Then we go up more than 300. Then today we find ourselves falling as we speak. A little slipping welcome to the new world of the market welcome to the new world, and you talk about 1,500 points, thats why were seeing the volatility rise the way were seeing it. This is significant. These moves are huge they have volume behind them i was talking about the volumes the other day in the options world. 24 million, 37 million contracts over the last three sessions so volatility is here, scott i wouldnt be surprised if we start to see a new range for volatility everybody has been expecting it. But we get these kind of moves, and we still have plenty of different political reasons for the stock market to move, along with where i know, steve, in a note earlier today, was talking about what hes seen in the tenyear were just at the start of earnings season. The vix is barely moving today, its not as if the vix is ripping when stocks are sliding. No, but it was ripping when stocks were climbing one of the reasons for it, scott, weve had this binary bet on whether or not we hit the wall on friday, steve, with the Government Shutdown. Yesterday, judge, as we were talking about it on the show, we said, hey, looks like from the reports were getting out of d. C. , that theyre saying, thumbs up, not going to be a problem, well get through the shutdown, extend through february, then do it all over again. Today there is a picmix. Politico was reporting a short time ago that mcconnell was said to be preparing for a shutdown then it seemed as though stocks started to slip a little bit there. Is this the way its going to be, is this a new world of volatility that were so not used to, it just is a little unsettling scott, i feel the return of an old friend that i missed for so long called volatility. I think this is great, because this confirms the market to me this tells me its real, and its actually sustainable. Ive been waiting for this for a while. If you had shorted vxx in the first trading days, you made 10 . Now the trend is in the other direction. If you look at it over the month, volatility is coming back, and it should, and im happy. This confirms we have a real market going we might not have it for much longer, kev. If we get through tomorrow, judge, and there is that kicking the can out to february, then watch how fast this goes right back to 10 as far as the vix 260 on the tenyear certainly got a lot of attention today, maybe that has a lot to do with why stocks are in the red. To me, thats the concerning factory, it should be the concerning factory for everybody. Rates have typically ended rallies when theyve risen quickly. Those who are concerned are saying, look, 261, major technical level, 299, never get to there, major technical level. Major Technical Levels are made to be broken if dragi cuts back further and raises, there will be less of a reason to come into u. S. Treasuries i think thats still the risk. And the market always leads the fed. You feel like theres significant rate risk to the rally right now . Not right now i think youve got to go at a couple of quarters real rates are still ridiculously low and extremely accommodative. Creditors are sloshing around out there. Youre repaying a lot of debt on the corporate side, repatriating thats creating a need for corporate debt which will be priced lower so i think were okay now. Im just suggesting youve got to watch it, because it will accelerate in my view faster the reason we have Steve Liesman at the desk because im a nice guy and good looking theres all kind of reasons can i just say, the makeup room ran out of makeup when they got to these four guys a lot of skin to cover. The fed has commented before about asset prices, asset bubbles in some cases. Im wondering how they view whats taking place in the market and also as theyre watching the tenyear eclipse to 60 for the first time in a while. Every fed official i talk to, i ask about market levels. So far they do not seem to have a level of concern the question i asked janet yellen in the last press conference, where she said its not red and it may not even be flashing yellow when it comes to market valuations. How is that possible when they consistently, some of them at least do, talk about asset prices being elevated, and the question is whether theyre too elevated in the feds mind some do, and they see it as reason to continue with these gradual rate increases the fed looks at the regulated Banking System the one that could fall apart and grow up and create a systemic problem and bring the economy down they do not see the leverage in the system or they see the current valuations as something that threatens that system and were looking for a black swan event when it comes to finances when it comes to the fed and the markets, so far the fed has been the friend of the markets. When i look at whats priced in right now, first hike priced in for march this year, second hike now priced for june, and,000 we have a greater than 50 probability that there will be a third rate hike in december. Which the market has fine with and then i think about what is the potential worst Case Scenario theres a 15 probability of a fourth hike. But if you tell me that the fed is going to do another quarter, and that all of a sudden, current stock market valuations are not justified, then i think youre wrong about that. I think that this market is not going to be spooked. Theres a psychological aspect steve talked about that, a quick rate rise. When i look at the fundamentals of the economy and this about a 3 tenyear and declining corporate yields which means the cost of interest to companies is going to be going down, i do not see the economy being spooked by higher rates right here. Under what circumstance would the fed potentially i know this sounds crazy, but go 50 basis points i dont think they go 50 at a meeting. I think they could add one its possible that one of the meetings, not the first one out of the box for powell, but maybe a second, would be 50. If you get a spikeup in inflation, if its sustained for a while, and if you see, by the way, the fed chasing the market here, if the market believes in higher rates steve, if the question goes for 100 basis points, 25 a possible 225 would be your endpoint for this year, yes. And the tenyear stays at 256. Does it stay below three then youve got that specter of that yield curve issue right youre going to have the reversal and traditionally, equities dont like that. The market is free to express its belief in the efficacy of Federal Reserve actions. You know, so i very well predicted the three rate hikes in 2017, i nailed the twoyear what i didnt nail was 60 basis points of spread tightening on the tenyear whats your call on the ten i would think at a normal rate, if the fed goes up to two, it would be a 3 because i like this hundred basis points of spread between the two and the ten, which is a normal world to me i agree let me ask it this way. Does anybody view whats happening in the bond market or in d. C. And thinking to themselves, maybe i need to rethink how bullish ive been feeling over the last weeks, what the tax plan will mean, where the economy will go, why im all of a sudden sitting back and saying, maybe i need to take a little off the table because its starting to feel skittish i think thats the action in todays market as the bond market went through 260, look, the tenyear yield has increased by 10 bips in the last month youve got to be whistling past the graveyard. Nobody is buying credits yet, you have to buy midcaps, you are get a better yield i agree that he just a forecast or a look at things to come if you get that rapidity in raising, youll see more pressure im just taking money off the table now to keep my portfolio balance in check i got a number, 65 35 is the way i balance my portfolio, stocks go up and i pare it back down. Im just doing it naturally. Into cash i did a little bit of tips and a little bit of fixed income great but whats driving it, whats more powerful than you and others im not moving the market i dont know. Thats an ego thats an ego, huh but in all seriousness, its the alcos that drive it. If yields are going higher, equities are coming lower. And then it resets, when it sees that its going higher on credits. Youre still getting two six on the triple b portfolio and you can get 3 dividend yield out of midcap stocks i dont disagree. But thats not whats driving the markets. Whats driving the market is treasuries are we just venting worries here i dont know that the fed is really something that keeps these guys up at night its not. The trend has certainly been maybe in fact we are its a legitimate question to be asking if investors are getting too optimistic about the rally our mike santoli has been looking at that and join us from the new york stock exchange. Michael . Hey, scott. Any way that you would typically measure investor sentiment, its been flashing a warning sign for a couple of weeks now. If you talk about the low put call levels, all the survey work is basically up at multidecade highs in terms of bullishness. You talk about exposures of investors on the retail and institutional side, very low cash levels, very, very high in healthy equity exposures that was the case coming into this year. All that tells me is thats the makings of a random air pocket or a flattening of the market or maybe this isnt your best entry point at this particular point it explains to me the action weve seen in the last couple of days this is a higher velocity rally that weve seen in the last couple of weeks. Thats why you get up to 85 by 10 00 a. M. , lose it all, up 320 the next day and by the way, on no news, you cant really tie any of that to headlines, because i think right now the market is kind of captivated with itself, with its own momentum, with the raw power of the mali. That of the rally a little bit different than last year when you had clockwork rotation yes, i think sentiment is very stretched. But guess what, its stretched because all the news is good its not as if everyone is very bullish and by the way theres lots of danger signs people are ignoring i think it just kind of confirms the situation were in its really a question of how long can things stay good. Im looking at the credit market response to potentially higher rates, not just the yields themselves going up. And the vix, if it closes above 13 when the market itself hasnt fallen very much, maybe thats telling you tell sparrows are starting to scatter and you should look for storm clouds the bottom line, and i think art kachin said it yesterday afternoon, nothings changes you had this big fallaway from a 200plus rally and you had this come back, if the market is really concerned about a Government Shutdown, down. 4 , that doesnt say much to me. Nothing has changed in the big picture. I agree generally the market has traded down on average. 6 during a Government Shutdown, thats nothing to worry about. Youve had that move intraday, so many days look, i think in terms of the fed, your question is, does anybody really care about the fed. I dont really care about the fed. You dont worry about it. I dont worry about it. I care about it. I care about them, but overall, the market, the fed is so transparent now and talks so much totally agree it false on deaf ears theyve done a good job they have and an unheralded job, in becoming a nonissue. They lay out for the market which is what you want for the fed to be that way, dont you want them to be transparent . To a certain extent i dont want to know how the sausage is made, because then it falls on deaf ears, because then theres no import to what they say. It comes back to what weve been asking almost daily, whether were too optimistic, or if were not optimistic enough i think its more of the latter. Can i throw a question out . You have apple announcing, walmart, all these other Companies Paying their employees more its still not figured had. Do you feel like the tax cut is priced into this market no. Ive still not seen the movement by those companies that seem like theyre going to benefit most from the tax cut, on just a mathematical basis its a very difficult thing to model how the tax cut will flow to the whole stock market. But you can look at a company, you can say theyre a domestic company, theyve not had these foreign overseas earnings. They have 35 taxes, going down to 21. Theres a mathematical equation you can make i havent seen the vaullues beig put on that group. Ive seen models from analysts theyre Still Holding corporations at 35 tax rates, they havent even changed their models youve seen modest revisions but not enough of it it will be a gift that keeps on giving. The next question is the economy. Weve done 3 . I dont think thats the run rate of the economy. I think its more like 2. 5 but hold on. Hold on. Debbie downer no, thats wrong. Hold on weve done 2 perso the last sel years. Weve got a run rate of the economy estimated to be 1. 8. Youre telling me im doing an extra half a point on 18 trillion thats right, debbie. If it is, im fine with that. But im telling you, 2 1 2 is a very good number its a victory for the market. Its a victory for policy. Its a victory for whats happening. Scott, there is in part your answer in part your answer is, everybody is scoffing that were not at a 3 economy forever. Silly every year weve been talking about the annual First Quarter slowdown, we have a soft patch that would be the big surprise that upends everyones expectation that all we have to worry about is overheating i think people are potentially still underestimating. They dont have a good earnings number, they dont have a good handle on the multiple 5 in 11 days when you compound at 5 at 11 days, youre building in lots of good stuff if that continues to be your trajectory if youre expecting what we got to be the run rate of the market, youre probably going to be disappointed. Maybe people arent positioned for that mike, every ceo weve heard from, from jamie dimon through the banks that weve heard from so far, has said that they are extending the impact of the tax cuts for what it will mean for their businesses so to all of our points, its not priced in, or at least its not priced in correctly. Second of all, you just spoke of that 5. 7 move that weve seen over four days, judge. And michael, you said is the stock market sniffing out something with the vix no, the market is responding to that 5. 7 again, highs to lows, guys, as we surged 13 days for us to basically get through 26,000 i mean, when youre looking at that kind of thing, its justified. If we didnt see it, you would be shocked so were not shocked and now, to your point, were not seeing much today, because all we have is a 24hour wait for the window on shutdown if i told you that earnings were going to be at the high end of expectations, if not potentially even exceeding them, and that the yield on the tenyear was going to stay somewhere in the current range, maybe it goes up 10 to 20 basis points, you would probably all tell me the market is going to be higher. If thats true, well get another 20 in equities this calendar year. A lot of people are starting to come to the realization that that may be true 50 are starting to say, wait a second, we can get another 12 to 18 on equities if in fact it has been priced in, that all these Midcap Companies with domestic revenue have to be adjusted from 35, 36, down to 21 thats 15 more Free Cash Flow thats what im betting on i think we may see that. Frankly, i think in 12 months well have a run rate with the atlanta fed just moved up, four days ago they had it at 3. 3. They just moved today to 3. 4, judge. Four days ago. All thats happened are the reports that were talking about. In other words, people are still racheting up, including the fed, where they think were going i didnt even throw in the buyback question, which is like a dirty word around here its a big part of the potential impact of this tax cut, which is, apple yesterday writes its very vague press release that says its going to be paying this tax money and its going to be doing 20,000 in jobs and a whole bunch of investment we dont know how much is tied to it. Heres the thing what we dont know is how much of this money ends up in buybacks and dividends take a guess. Is it a third of everything that comes back i think its twothirds everybody at this table is competing with the cfos for buyback. For political reasons, theyre not announcing it now, theyre talking about jobs and investment there is a wave 3 trillion you have to be careful with the language its all coming home they are required not all of it theyre required to pay and santoli knows more about this than i do. Theyre required to pay the tax on it. Therefore it is all available, if they paid the tax on it, to buybacks theyll pay workers what workers are worth to them. There will be no bonuses and no wage increases that are not profitable for companies to give tim cook in an interview last night had all the opportunity in the world to say, we would be doing all of this no matter the tax plan or whatever, and he didnt he gave credit to the tax plan he said in large part its because of the tax plan and a large part we would be doing its like saying, twothirds its for this and twothirds its for that. My point is he didnt have to say anything scott scott. Yeah. Why wouldnt he say that . The tax plan is the catalyst for companies saying, look, we have this much cash that we have no excuse for not using, lets allocate it across these different fronts, employees, buybacks, dividends, m a, whatever its going to be. But apple allowed 50 billion to float to the bottom line they could have let 49 billion to float to the bottom line. It also has 100 billion of debts against the 230 in cash overseas this is a company that could have done anything but its using the tax plan as a catalyst to say were going to do something for all our constituencies its a net positive for everybody but its not a causal thing. Mike, thanks, steve, thanks as well. Senior economics reporter Steve Liesman. Were focused on shutdown possibilities at d. C our Kayla Tausche is there for the latest reporter scott, republicans will work throughout the day to short up support for the short term funding bill ahead of the first vote at 7 00 tonight the governmebill would keep govt funded for six months. Delays of certain obama care taxes would, they hope, win over the support of obamacare supporters the pentagon was voicing the same message the white house has reiterated its support for this bill and is not giving any cover to those who would vote against it. Back to you. Kayla, thank you very much. Next, Value Investing superstar bill nigren is with us wait until you see what else he is buying. Plus the call of the day. Whats behind Goldman Sachs upgrading a big name and putting the stock in the conviction buy list plus two traders are making some big moves on ibm ahead of this afternoons Earnings Report what should you do before the break, our data partners at kensho on how ibm fares after a Quarterly ReportHalftime Report is back in two minutes. For your heart. Your joints. Or your digestion. So why wouldnt you take something for the most important part of you. Your brain. With an ingredient originally found in jellyfish, prevagen is now the number one selling brain Health Supplement in drug stores nationwide. Prevagen. The name to remember. Back with the Halftime Report. The ge crush continues, shares down today, below 17 bucks for the First Time Since 2011. However, one Value Investor is sticking with it the Portfolio Manager of oakmark funds, live with us from chicago. Bill, welcome. Thank you we last saw you in the midst of ge turmoil. You told us you were staying with this story, that you still thought the stock represented good value a lot has happened since then. Now there are talks about breaking up the company as early as this thing. Where are you today on ge . It was clearly a swing and a mission last time i was on here. Ge was the worst performing stock in our portfolio we own over 50 names and it was the absolute worst performer in the Fourth Quarter. At some time we would sell a stock in that situation. But in this case, tremendous change in people theres a new chairman, a new ceo, a new cfo, new head of the Power Division the problems were largely contained in the Power Division. The dollar of earnings that ge is expected to earn this year are coming from health care and aviation those businesses have been just fine theyre Industry Leaders most of their earnings in those businesses come from services and replacement parts. We think they deserve better than average multiples the stocks at about a market multiple theyve got assets that are for sale that they should be able to get good multiples of ebitda on, because ge isnt necessarily the most logical owner of those assets so we like the new people, and its very hard to take a fresh look at something thats been this disappointing we think with the fresh look, ge deserves to be in the portfolio today. Is that a way of saying as well that youve been buying more stock on these dips weve been buying and selling. At observing maaoakmark, when w company that has performed this closely, weve been rotating through adding shares, subtracting shares, so we can take our tax loss while we maintain our position. Can i ask it this way, then is your position in ge today larger than it was before a lot of this turmoil and stock slides started to happen . More shares, smaller percent of the portfolio understood. The charge that ge took was larger than expected to a lot of people the analyst at jpmorgan, weve been referencing him so often because hes been on the right side of this trade when he looks at the impact of that, he suggests the fair value for this stock is maybe around 16 bucks others do sum of the parts and say 15 why are they wrong if youre doing a sum of the parts analysis, and we think thats an appropriate way to look at it, one of the most important issues is what multiple you put on the businesses and we think that the ge jet, the aviation business, the jet engines they make, we think that is one of the absolute best businesses long Term Contracts strong reliability. Its not based on the number of planes that get sold we put a higher multiple on that business than others do. Same thing with Ge Health Care i think its really interesting that Ge Health Care presented at jpmorgans conference last week. First time theyve ever done that, as a separate company. Its a Good Business its not the old radiology business that people tend to associate with ge. Its a good, growing business, a good part of it is biotech we think it would get a higher multiple than the averaGe Health Care business would. Then youve got a power business that should have recovery potential, along with these other assets that dont fit look at those into those businesses at higher multiples. Youve added a couple of stocks that i think are interesting. Ill get to those in a minute. What jumps out to me is youre out of microsoft why is that . If youre a long term Value Investor, youre doing a lot of things that are unpopular at the time you do them weve been in microsoft a long time, we brought it back at the time a new ceo was named at the company, when there was a fear that the cloud was going to get rid of their office business, which is such a good recurring stream of cash flow. Microsofts stock has done incredibly well. And it got to a price that we just thought other things offered better long term opportunities. And you look at some things we were able to repurpose that microsoft proceeds into, things Like American Airlines at less than ten times earnings, a company thats bought back a third of its stock until the past five years, great ceo cvs, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the tax law change in terms of along with the airlines right thats why i was thinking, when youre talking about airlines, certainly a big benefit. Right and you guys were talking earlier about how slow some of the analysts have been to forecast new earnings levels we completely agree with you, and we think you see it almost each day, as companies arereporting earnings and giving guidance for 2018, that analysts were waiting for that event to change their earnings numbers. We think cvs is selling at barely a double digit p e and is in the midst of an interesting conversion from a business that was a Convenience Store attached to a pharmacy to a Health Care Delivery store where youll see health care clinics, over the Counter HealthCare Products as well as a pharmacy much less of a concern in that kind of Business Model that amazon is a threat to them and then the other name we added thats unusual for a Value Investor, price line right, price line if you look at price line and subbracktract off the price theh on their Balance Sheet and their investment in ctrip, youre paying less than a market multiple on a consensus for next years earnings. With booking. Com, theyre one of the leaders in Online Travel its an industry we think has a very strong tailwind and we see no reason that that business ought to sell at a discount to the market p e i got you bill, always a pleasure. Thanks for being here, see you again soon thank you bill nygren joining us from chicago as always. Back to ge you wouldnt touch it . I own ge. Bill has a great track record he does i have two questions about ge. This time last year, the company was guiding to about a buck 97 2, okay then i dont know how this happened, but all of a sudden, within a matter of six months, it was a dollar gone, evaporated nobody pushed any buttons about that when did they know that . Because im asking that as a shareholder, okay . How is it that they dont have a class action suit on that dollar that evaporated . Bill made a point that theres been a lot of change in management i dont think so the new guy came out of the business he was part of that board. I havent seen a lot of change on the board im putting up my hand saying, not so fast, kiddies, where did the dollar go . I want to know where the dollar went youre asking me to pay 17 times with basically the same crew running the show they whacked the head guy, deservedly so, i get that. But im back at what happened to the dollar tell me what happened to the dollar now i have to pay 17 times for basically a health care engine business with a whole lot of crust in it that i have to chip away to get it thats too expensive i think the stock is worth 13 bucks, thats what i think i think it will visit there. But im still back with, tell me about the dollar when did you know and i didnt know i would like to know that answer why dont we ask one of those guys sometime . Uncle kevin wants to know about the dollar well make sure we ask mr. Flannery next time hes on i would like to speak to him. When will you start the class action suit . Im not that kind of guy, im a nice guy but if someone else does the heavy lifting, ill join it as a shareholder. Have you ever watched shark tank reruns touche. But i have a right to ask for my dollar the stock is more of a short. I agree they should have bought new blood in flannery was complicit in the decline of this company. Let me say, cramer, to his credit, has been waving the flag for shareholders with those kind of questions well, im one of them, and im not finished i want my dollar i want to know what happened to it if you take a look at the health care business, i just reviewed the Third Quarter 2017, Fourth Quarter will be out the 24th, health care grew organically 4 thats not a high growth company. Aeronautics, engines, have the same growth. Is it a no touch . I think its no touch its irresponsible for this company to pay dividends theyve got unfunded obligations. Its upside down in its financials Everybody Knows theyre selling assets im not so sure they can get more when youre a fire sale seller, how do you get more for your assets . Im not secondguessing nygren, brilliant guy. But i like microsoft a hundred times, a hundred out of a hundred times, ill take microsoft and jettison which i mild a bad buy on, i bought ge at 20. 50, luckily got out with most of my backside intact at 18 bucks a share. Its a horrible slide in that company. By the way, priceline, one of the things that i really like about it is people dont focus on that theyre a lender when theyre buying these rooms, kevin, you know, theyre going to a starwood or a marriott or wherever theyre going and lending them money to get these rooms. They are a lender, scott and i think thats not priced into the model thats one of the reasons i really like what is the priceline pick . Phenomenal. With the competition theyve got, its not Just Health Care you bring up aeronautics aviation, i think theres more competition than nygren is thinking there is. Thats why your 13 number makes sense to me. I think this name goes lower microsoft, why give up on that name based upon the growth that they have . And theyre gaining on competition. Theyre gaining on aws, right, and the cloud. If the stocks goes down to 13 bucks, im going to ask all of you guys, and everybody is going to be wondering, theyre themselves investors out there, okay, now is it a buy . I know if it goes down to 13, i know you guys will tell me not to do it is it a buy because theyve done something if a stock drops, has it dropped for the right reason right now the stock could go to 13 for the right reasons is it worth buying has the management doesnt what they needed to do to change the opinion for the rest of us because if its just about going from 17 to 13, no, it wouldnt be a buy good stuff. Lets get the headlines with sue herera hello, scott, hello, everyone at this hour, a Huge Police Presence in central pennsylvania after a suspect opened fire on Law Enforcement officials. A u. S. Marshals task force was serving a warrant when the shooting occurred, killing one officer and injuring two others. There was a search warrant rather, an arrest warrant that was being served and there were shots that were fired. And were conducting an investigation on the use of that force. There is no current danger to the public the person who used that others in is not at large amazon has whittled down to 20 the list of cities in contention to host its second north american headquarters. 238 locations initially made bids, hoping to attract billions of dollars in investment and up to 50,000 high paying jobs some of the finalists include boston, atlanta, newark, new jersey, new york city, and austin, texas. And burger king is looking to start a beef with mcdonalds, launching its own quarter pound burger it comes as mcdonalds is working to swap out frozen beef patties for fresh ones burger king says it uses frozen patties. Well keep you posted. Scotty now im hungry. Sorry about that. Sue herera joining us there big options moves, the trades jon and peter are making today based on what they see in the options market, next plus two very different positions on big blue. Halftime report continues in two minutes. Weve been preparing for this day. Over the years, paul and i have met regularly with our ameriprise advisor. We plan for everything from retirement to college savings. Giving us the ability to add on for an important member of our family. Welcome home mom. With the right financial advisor, life can be brilliant. Of emerging markets obsolete . At pgim, we see alpa in the trends, driving specific sectors of out performance. Where a rising middle class powers a booming auto industry. A leap into the digital era draws youthful populations to mobile banking and ecommerce. Trade and travel surge between emerging markets. Everyday our 1,100 investment professionals around the world search out opportunities for alpha. Partner with pgim, the Global Investment management businesses of prudential. Jon and pete have made their way to the telestrator unusual activity time. Lets start off with snap they came scrambling in here in snap and bought calls. Obviously you can see these couple of bottoms that its put in right around this 11 mark. Is it finally time that it gets a breakout theyve got earnings coming up, about two weeks. Thats how long im going to hold these calls theyre buying the 15 calls. With the stock at basically 14 bucks, theyre buying the 15s here in snap i jumped in on those ill probably hold these in the neighborhood of two weeks because thats when earnings are. It sounds like a dice rock, doc. But its a cheap shot cheap shot really cheap shot. These options i believe were under 60 cents, pete, that they were paying for these. So i can have the upside of snap for 60 cents and who knows, do they some partnership, anything else they might possible announce as earnings that could be a good thing for the stock. Im willing to roll the dice take a look at on semiconductor. 24. 80, it got an upgrade today they took the target all the way up to 29 thats a gutsy call ahead of earnings, like i say, two weeks out they were buying the 25 calls out in april so the thing to focus on there is, its not just a short term pop. Somebody wants to be in for the longer term because these options are out there four months the spring, thats a long time yep ill probably get rid of half of the trade after the earnings announcement, hold onto the rest and start selling calls. Pete . Jon was talking about something out there a little ways in the future i think were starting with apple. Yes, we are. We were talking about all the different reasons, repatriation, everybody else july 20. 10 calls bought today, 5,000 of those, between 2. 70 and 2. 97 is what they were paying, pretty big buying in apple i actually added this, i bought these calls, i already own the stock. I owned the stock forever, it seems like ill continue to hold it these options, im going to be in these all the way through july i think this thing is actually going to continue to move to the upside i got one more for you i dont remember either of you ever going that long, a Holding Period of six months where these options are dated. Every once in a while well get something out three, four, five, six months i would prefer closer because youre paying for that time premium, scott but they went to july, i went to july so ill hold onto these quite a while and give this time to move to the upside, maybe even get through that areas lowes is the other one. Just a little over a week ago, that stock was trading under 95 at the time. Took a huge run up today the stock trading right around this level. Theyre rolling out of some of which their big profitable calls. Back then they were buying 29,000 of the calls. Now all of a sudden today theyre buying 5,000 of the march calls as well to the upside you can see these march 105s, very aggressive call buying there. Im in the stock, not in these calls. I like whats happening in lowes. Timekeeper will smack me upside the head. Whats your take the question is has the model changed enough stocks had a nice move. I know, but, you know like a big upgrade. This is not like microsoft switching its ceo and changing the whole Business Model, which they did very successfully this is more of the same, maybe. Pete, somebody took this, yesterday, i think it was, from sell to buy, underweight to overweight pretty aggressively with a 192 target so im long the stock, ive been long a little while now. I sell calls almost every month. What i love about expiration cycles is the premium gets really, really big because the volatility starts to move up lets use 165 as a price range youre going to sell the upside call that gives you room up to 173. It also protects you to the downside thats what ive gone on right now. If the stock is anywhere between these numbers, im going to make some money come on back over this way. Well step away for a moment when we come back, Goldman Sachs, their big call on a railer first, a look at whats coming up on power. Should investors be worried about a potential Government Shutdown will the buying keep coming during the shutdown if we get one . What apples repatriation really means for that company and maybe the entire u. S. Economy. Amazon creating a frenzy, announcing its 20 finalists for the city that may host its second headquarters. Who really has the upper hand . Well try to bakre it down more Halftime Report. Back after this. Not exactly a fortune. Well, a 103 yeah, 103. Well, let me ask you guys. How long did it take you two to save that . A long time. Then its a fortune. Well, im sure you talk to people all the time who think 100k is just pocket change. Right now were just talking to you. I told you we had a fortune. Yes, you did. Getting closer to your investment goals starts with a conversation. Schedule a complimentary goal Planning Session today. Todays Senior Living communities have never been better, with amazing amenities like movie theaters, exercise rooms and swimming pools, public cafes, bars and bistros even pet care services. And theres never been an easier way to get great advice. A place for mom is a free service that pairs you with a local advisor to help you sort through your options and find a perfect place. A place for mom. You know your family we know Senior Living. Together well make the right choice. nadia white the moment a fish is pulled out from the water, its a race against time. And keeping it in the right conditions is the best way to get that fish to your plate safely. dane chauvel sometimes the product arrives, and the cold chain has been interrupted, and we need to be able to identify where in the cold chain that occurred. tom villa we took our world class network, and we developed devices to track environmental conditions. This device allows people to understand whats happening with the location, but also if its too hot, if its too cold, if its been dropped. Its completely unique. dennis woloshuck if you have a sensor that can keep track of your product, it keeps everybody kind of honest that way. Who knew a tiny sensor could help keep the food chain safe . Welcome back to the Halftime Report. Bitcoin is showing a selloff does that have something to do with the action that were seeing today certainly, jackie there was a lot of action around that as traders tried to let that settle out. Its to be expected that we will get a lot of volatility. Couple that with the seasonal trade. Middecember to midjanuary, it has had significant selloffs during that time period. Now that were through that seasonality of the trade, well see if that pushes higher. Well see if we can recover. Do you think we can get to 12 or 13,000 again . You know, 13,000, i think, is a little oit of tut of the quesn as long as theres still the threat of regulation and or possible shutdown as some of these exchanges in asia, i wouldnt sell any of these rallies. Today on the live show, were joined by Peter Boockvar plus, john kilduff he breaks down crudes recent n. L at the top of the hour l at the top of the hour futures cnbc. Comlio. Since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. Okay. Im plugged into equities trade confirmed and i have Global Access 24 7. Meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. Visit learnfuturestoday. Com to see what adding futures can do for you. 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Only at your authorized mercedesbenz dealer. Dad promised he would teach me how to surf on our trip. When you book a flight then add a hotel you can save. 3 waves later, i think it was the other way around. Everything you need to go. Expedia. All right. Were back walmart, the conviction by goldman. Yes and a focus list the day before. For all the reasons that they like walmart right now, i would convert it over. I know you know where im going. To target. Its for the same reasons that they love walmart right now that i think you could also say this supplies to target. Agree trades at a much lower risk i was at target yesterday at the headquarters meeting with the team it blew me away. There you go. I thought they were old school they are not they have really smart, young people doing a transition. That company is going to do Amazing Things online. Brian oleary lets do final trades in the 20 seconds that we have left. Western digital is a trading stock. 79 to 85 meek mi microsoft, unusual call activity. That was peter brady. Youre right i do not own ge i sold it in december. That does it for us thanks for watching. Power starts now. Im melissa lee. Shutdown countdown only two days to go until a market shutdown. Right now the votes dont add up in this recordbreaking rally, General Electric is tanking but boeing is flying high is ge a victim of short termism . Well break that down. And a 350 billion question. What it means are to the