Well get them involved in a few moments, but we do begin with the aforementioned jeffrey gunned lach, founder and show of Doubleline Capital thanks for having us. Welcome, judge. Glad to have you here at doubleline. A big day, obviously fed day. New high yet again for the dow surprises today. The fed is going to hike, right . Of course, the fed is going to hike. The real message of 2017 i think is that this is the year that the fed won. You know, 14 short mondays ago the bond Market Pricing said, fed, you wont be able to raise three times in 2017. Actually before the election it was about a onehalf hike is what the bond market was pricing in then the market started to exit late and in late february a couple of fed governor talked about a march hike and the bond market for the first time in years changed on a dime based on fed rhetoric and ever since february the bond market said yes, we believe in three hikes or maybe 2. 75 hikes and clear lit fed is going to hike and whats doubling interesting is march of 2018, three months from now, the bond market gives you about a twothirds chance that theres a hike coming then, too. So the fed has really been right this year. First time in a long time, and one thing thats very interesting about 2017 i think one thing that investors missed badly for the year was one of the most prominent calls, the more consensus calls was that the dollar would have to go up this year, that the dollar would go up because the fed was going to hike, and one thing i like to point out to our clients and our investors is shortterm fed moves are not what drives the dollar it correlates much more to what the bond market thinks visavis the fed say 18 months forward so if you actually rook at the bond Market Pricing for 2019 now, theres a pretty big discrepancy between the bond market and the fed, so thats going to be really interesting in driving the dollar, and this time i think the bond market is going to be right. I want to dive a whole bunch deeper on the fed in a little bit, but if i asked you are you more surprised that rates remained as low as they did throughout this entire year or that stocks remained as powerful as they did throughout this entire year, what would you say . A little bit of both. I thought that the we were together in march of this year, and the tenyear treasury was at 2. 60 at the time and i said its going below 2. 25 and not below 2. I was dead right and made it all the way to 2. 02, also made me a dishonest person and did hold the line i really thought wed take another look above 2. 60 this year, and that didnt happen it looks like thats not going to happen because time is running out. So i thought with that view, i didnt think wed go above 3 so i was largely right on the range here this year, but i did think that push up above 2. 60 might have stalled the stock market but since that move never happened the stock market stayed remarkably strofnlg i mean, this is the most amazing year for investors maybe that i can even remember in my career which is pretty long now. If you threw a darke dart at the world equity market, youre unlucky if you hit the s p 500 and unlucky if you hit the dow. Because its underperformed many of these other markets around the world one of our strongest convictions for the year was foreign markets, emerging markets exchina that was the place to be. It was that pair its trade that you had go long. It worked spectacularly well until recently its worked well since the conference. At least one side of it. But the paratrade its a paratrade with leverage, and its worked. Had good returns. Sure. But its all about the dollar, and i think the dollar remains a very important variable as we move forward into 2018. Its been the calmer year. On record from the very high day close to the low day close subsequently, the drawdown we call it, its under 3 that is really incredible. It happened similarly in 1995. So theres a lot of comparisons actually between now and 1995. Some people want to remain bullish for years to come point out thereto was a raging bull market from 1959 into early 2000. Why have we been so calm . Well, i think its because of central bank pegging of rates and kwooquantitative easing goin full fwhor europe and japan. One of the charts that i love to reference is the nearly linear rise in Central Bank Balance sheet holdings ever since 2011 where the fed stopped quantitative easing back three years ago, and japan and the ecb just took over the slack, and its just a linear rise. And if you divide Global Market cap of the global stock market by Balance Sheet holdings of central banks, the big three its a constant. Kind of like the law of physics almost if you divide the market cap of the global stock market by the Balance Sheet holdings, you get a constant so thats been driving things, and now the fed is doing kwaub tati doing quantitative tightening we called it kwooes when they were buying the bonds. Lets at all it quantitative tightening. The real activity would be forward about a year and mr. Draghi said astonishingly that they will continue 30 billion euros of month of quantitative easing and threw it in to put a cherry on top of the cake on still luce and negative rates well past the end of quantitative easing, which means sounds to me youll have negative rates as long has mr. Draghi is around which is another two years. Are you then saying that the runway of this good feeling, if you will, in equity market is another year i want you to listen to seems a little too long to me to say another year, but, you know, the tax plan has been a lot of whats going on, i think. And ive heard had a headline moments ago that they are talking about a deal being near between the two houses, but the tax plan is a big deal one way i conclude that is if you look at junk bonds take the jnk etf unbelievably its at the same price today as it was in january. It hasnt gone up at all with the stock market rallying like crazy. If you look at bank loans theres a bank loan bkln, thats actually down on the year, and down not like a basis point but a couple percent and near the low. Year why is that . Its because there are no defaults going on right now in the corporate economy. Bank loans, junk bonds, the default rate is quite low, so relief for some companies doesnt really help junk bonds they are already assumed to not fall so it goes into helping the potential earnings of stocks, but i think that whats going to be a developing narrative for 2018, for junk bonds and potentially stocks, is right now the tax plan is viewed as universally positive its kind of human nature. They look for bright side, we all do, an they say, look, this tax plan is great, Corporate Tax rates will come down but it doesnt look like they will come down much in aggregate it will be very different depending on different sectors hand what about junk bonds when you think about it junk bonds are already not defaulting theres probably going to be some unintended consequences of all the timingering around of the tax code and i think will probably harm some companies, some sectors i saw on cnbc there was a fellow running a pretty highly Leveraged Energy company and he was kind of pleading for the tax plan not to go through because of some of the nondeductibility of certain interest and the like hes saying were going to go bankrupt were going to go bankrupt if this comes through so one of the unintended consequences of the tax plan is it may lead to a new narrative about defaults in the junk bond market and may lead to a new narrative about maybe some of the wherewithal for stocks is being taken away think about people like me, think about people in new york who are very high taxpayers on a state basis, who all of a sudden are getting a big tax increase. Because the state and local. Capped deductibility at a very low level those are the people that own savings, people in a own stocks. Those are the people that probably have a buying Program Going on in stocks if im correct and im going to receive a sevenpoint bump in my tax rate which is actually about a 15 tax increase, i have a feeling that im probably going to be less able and willing to buy risky assets or buy all the other things that are bubbling up these days, and maybe that side of the narrative will start showing up i always look for that sort of a thing. When the internet came back years ago and the dotcoms came, it was one of the biggest booms of all time. Turned into a bubble and everyone saw the positives of the internet only several years later in the credit crisis that people started to realize theres anythingtives attached to these things. We have an update on the very latest on the tax plan with our ylan mui in washington, d. C. Ylan senator orrin hatch, chairman of the fins committee, just told reporters, quote, weve reached an agreement on the final version of the tax bill. He said he didnt want to release details until he spoke to President Trump he and other members of the Conference Committee that have been negotiating this tax deal are meeting with President Trump for lunch this afternoon in just about half an hour or so, but senator hatch did say that hes confident that he has the votes in order to get this passed. Back over to you okay. Ylan in d. C. With the very latest, ylan mui youve heard ylan as you said. You said this is a, quote, strange environment to be doing this tax plan to begin with. Right the narrative that i agree with, and its accuracy is that the Global Economy is doing better than its done in a long time and the u. S. Economy is doing better than its done in years for years we entered the new year with, oh, well get 10 to 12 Earnings Growth in the s p and, oh, were going to get 3 gdp and year after year those forecasts were downgraded. This year they didnt really have to be downgraded. We got the earnings, and while were not probably going to get 3 real for the year, weve had it for two quarters in a row and gdp now at the atlanta fed has been bouncing around and its around 3 for the third quarter. When is the last time we had Something Like 3 growth for three quarters in a row. Its a long time why would you be stimulating the economy, and when you look at things like Goldman Sachs and other investment banks, they do things like financial conditions indseerksz and this is a very unusual situation because the fed has been tightening by first stopping quantitative easing three years ago and starting to raise rates two years ago, so were kind of three years into forms of tightening, and usually by this time you have much tighter financial conditions, but these indices actually show some of the loosest financial conditions in this cycle, and the reason is that a lot of these financial indices use volatility as a major input. The vix for the stock market and the move index for the bond market, and boast them are at extremely low levels, so thats helping these conditions so its weird to have loose financial conditions for Goldman Sachs. 4. 2 nominal gdp. The last quarter was 5 been the 5 nominal gdp if you annual use it its kind of a strange thing to be throwing stimulus from fiscal policy on top of the mix. Some very smart investors are also wondering what the implications are going to be of youre doing a tax cut while at the same time youre on a tightening path while at the same time youre unwinding the Balance Sheet. Sure, its kind of juggling three balls, right does one ball drop to the floor . I mean what, happens with all that have . Do you have any insight on how you think that all plays how the . Well, i think the tax cut, which we call it tax cut its not a tax cut for me. Its a tax cut for some people cosmetically at least for a while. See what the plan looks like later on i think if there is a next tax cut it has to be bond unfriendly we already have growing bond supply weve had negative net bond supply in sovereign bonds across the world and the fed is letting bonds roll off and a tax cut would increase the deficit further, and to the extent that a tax cut might be stimulative to the economy thats bond unfriendly because bonds dont like Economic Growth and its more bonds expanding the deficit so even more supply stow seems to me Interest Rates should continue to rise as we move into 2018. I spoke with Lee Cooperman last year who mentioned the tax plans and some of the ideas were talking about now and some of the unintended consequences and some of the risks and hear what he had to say, and we can react on the other side. The tax package makes longterm sense. Short term i think its dangerous. We have a reasonably rapidly growing growing and Balance Sheet normalization by the fed i dont know that we need an additional fiscal stimulus injected into the economy. By dangerous what do you mean what could the fallout be . See a rapid level of inflation and Interest Rates that the market is not prepared for. Lee says normalization. Thats funny thats how the word we use for quantitative tightening i dont know about rapid rise in inflation or Interest Rates. I think Interest Rates, his forically the pat certain quite convincing that they bottom in a very gradualistic fashion but Interest Rates bottomed six, seven years ago on the twoyear treasury and a couple years ago and the five years on tenyear treasuries so they are in an inflation moved. Some of the indices are showing had a little bit of life youve got the ppi that was released yesterday and that came out at 3. 1 the trend there is very strong off the linear trend caused now by oil and oil is unchanged year over year but ppi is an uptrend and one thing we look at is the underlying inflation gauge that comes from the new york fed, and that was dead sideways since 2011 into about 2016 i mean, there was no life at all, and all of a sudden its gone up by a percentage point from 2 from the sideways days to 2. 96, lets call it 3 today, and its trending higher so these things are interesting. Also, sweden just printed a surprisingly high inflation number, and they are down at zero Interest Rates. Youve got the england, uk, just printed a threehandle inflation rate, and they have very low rates, so, yeah, putting some stimulus on top of the economy certainly seems like its not going to dampen the inflationary forces, and so its possible that we start to see an inflation narrative develop in 2018 the one thing thats still missing is average Hourly Earnings which did show some life going from 2s up to 3 and its really surprising given aust of the anecdotal evidence when you look at surveys and the answer to whats your problem, mr. Ceo, is wage and good workers. Inflation is still to come though missing in action we need to see the whites in the ties because its been predicted wrongly for such a long period of time. It sounds like you do expect bonds to crack, so to speak, before bonds do. I think its bonds cracking that could be a catalyst for stocks i also the think a buy the rumor and sell the news on the tax package should be a shortterm peak. Which is what weve been wondering about that as well. Its been a nonstop upward movement, and i do believe the narrative will develop that there are negative parts, unintended consequences, negative parts to this tax package and Interest Rates are clearly rights on the short end and the curve is flattening like craze they year. I find it ent taping that every time the curve flattens theres a narrative that says interest doesnt matter its the chinese these causing and that was wrong because the chinese were buying the short end if anything, the chinese buying would have steepened the curve this narrative is look how cheap we are compared to europe and japan. Foreigners naturally will be attracted to our 10 and 30year bonds. Isnt that part of why the curve is flattening because of whats happening in europe and japan . I think thats a false narrative. If youre a japanese investor or European Investor youre not doing well if you just own u. S. Bonds. Sure, youre picking um 200 basis points or 235 basis points relative to germany and germany and japan but they have currency risk if youre a japanese investor unhedged whats happened is the dollar has drochd 7 , 8 . You need to hem the currency out. If you look at hedged tenyear yield in the United States and compare them to japanese or german yield and 30year hedge, youre actually much worse off in the United States than you are in either germany or japan so there is no incentive for german investors or japanese investors to buy u. S. Bonds. Its a naive argument to say, look, youre picking up a couple hundred basis points have you to hedge the currency so i think the flattening of the yield curve is the real deal the bond market likes the fed saying were taking rates to 3 by the end of 2019. Are you worried about that becoming invertd got to watch it not worried yet. The 2. 10 spread is what i look at its getting close 50 basis points. Once you get inside of 50 basis point really have to start watching, but none of the indicators that weve followed at doubleline, and we follow a lot of them, none of them flat out say worry about recession, none of them leading indicators are downtown right year over year in and in a very strong uptrend. Pmi services need to relax and ceo confidence the same thing and then the granddaddy of them all, junk bond spreads junk bond spreads have begun to widen by an almost inperceptible amount and prior to the last two recessions junk bond spreads widened massively before the end of the recession was declared. When i say initially im talking 200 basis points and we need to start to see that happening. Up of the things to think about, its not that the bond market is omniscient, its kind of a causal day people that are leveraging investors have borrowing costs and that ends up happening is the wherewithal for buyers to own junk bonds and leverage them up disappears and that causes a lack of buying which causes the spreads to widen out which causes the companies to have Financial Stress which causes defaults to go up which sort of causes the recession it is interesting, and i pointed out earlier, that junk bonds are actually unchanged in price over the last 11 months and bank loans are down but its not a warning signal yet i call it the big rock sometimes. Out in the country people give directions theres no road signs so they say when you get to the big rock turn left. And you go okay, big rock. Yeah, yeah, you cant miss it. The big rocks. Youre driving along and see a rock thats eight feet high. You go a little further and see a is afoot rock thats pretty big so you turn. Miles later you havent arrived at your destination and theres a rock thats the size of 50 houses thats the big rocket. You know it when you see it. Junk bond spreads night to weeden a whole lost more than they are now well take a quick break. You think this crack and up think that will be a catalyst for stocks to run higher what im trying is the tenyear will he had up to 3 boston i do believe that there is substantial support for the tenyear at 3 i think that even foreign entities like perhaps the Chinese Central Bank might even want to stop the rate rise at 3 as a way of manipulating the Global Economy a little bit and i do think pushing up for 3 will put a drag on the stock market i think that is a catalyst for some relative value oigs and allocation changes. Well take a quick break and come back live from los angeles and Doubleline Capital and Jeffrey Gundlach on the Halftime Report. Next up, the traders join the conversation as we ask Jeffrey Gundlach about investing overseas and how hes positioning his positions for to 18 plus, his take on the bitcoin boom. Before the break, tower date ars partners at kensho showed the Top Performing stocks a week after a rate hike since 2015 are nrg, amaren and alient and the worst, b of a, renegts financial and Morgan Stanley the Halftime Report with scott wapner and the traders is back in two minutes for your heart. Your joints. Or your digestion. So why wouldnt you take something for the most important part of you. Your brain. With an ingredient originally found in jellyfish, prevagen is now the number one selling brain Health Supplement in drug stores nationwide. Prevagen. The name to remember. Welcome back were here with Jeffrey Gundlach if i said i need your best idea for 2018, what would it be i think investors should add commodities to their portfolios. Theres really a remarkable relationship between a market cap or the total return of the s p 500 and the total return Something Like the Goldman Sachs commodities index. The cyclicality is massive mavis cycles, starting into the 70s, commodities were extremely cheap around 1970 and rallied and went from a value equal to market cap in the s p to eight times the s p, and then it revertd all the way back down so commodities underperformed by 8x and then you went into another commodities cycle, the one into 1998 and they outperformed and went back down to equal and then they are all the way back down to that level that the last two times in 1970s and the bottom in the 90s. They are about the same call if you look at that chart the valuer value is executorically how he wanted it to be a buy very global xwlik activity increasing and a, we continue to have stimulative absurd policies gdp is higher in germany than the u. S. Sours 4. 2 and shares it 4. 3. We had a great number last month of 45. 5 and germany is 5. 6 their inflation rate is about the same as ours cpi game at 2. 2. Theirs is at 1. 8, not much different. Their Manufacturing Industry is very similar and their pmi is at record highs and very similar. Retail sales are a little stronger you go on and on and on and why do they have negative Interest Rate and all of the stimulus. So the ecb is not behind the curve. Its remarkable that they continue this still lurks and i think thats been a huge catly i talked about it at the uth set of the hour. The global central banking has a lot to do with it so its sorted of absurd t. Leads me to believe that commodities are interesting. There was a moment in 2017, and the etf had more shares outstanding than the s p etf that kind of a mania going on and thats completely disappeared. So i think that its an interesting time to be adding commodities n. 2011 when i went into offices of large asset allocators, they want to talk about sill vermont no one wants to talk about silver anymore and now everybody wants to talk about bitcoin, and im sure well goat that. Oh, we will oftentimes after a huge move Investment Committees come to some rationalization as to why they should buy after the big move, and they usually use the trojan horse of diversification, you know, yes, were buying silver at a high 50 and hour and that disappears once you go in commodities are not underperforming the s p for the past year. They are doing quite well. Theres cheap. Out of favor not 50 silver and cheap commodities to add to portfolio, and i think this is the time to do it. As i said, i have joe and josh, jon and peter back at our headquarters joe, why dont you go first with jeffrey. Sure. Thank, scott jeffry, i lost take on silver and gold i would agree with you and most investors right now, they dont each want to hear that conversation, but going back a little bit it sounds like the fixes. Investors is in for a tightening and what kind of impact do you see on the mortgagebacked Security Market as well as the muney bond market . I theres a lot of securities in that market thats a tenyear maturity and you have trits involved in that asset, and most products have tightiened in their spreads including mortgagebacked securities, including commodities and includes junk bonds for sure so theres really no place to hide when it comes to Interest Rate risk or credit risk muneys look overvalued maybe they have gotten overvalue the because people are thinking that people like me will get a tax increase so maybe munis will be helpful to them one of these days munis may be capped in terms of their deductibility, too, now that weve added a capping idea to the tax system where you have its only one step away and that that is the a really good position one thing that they have think about the tent the, from, that it just seems to me there were bonds floated at 3 and 3. 25 yield so that is tough for me its been a tough period frankly for bond investor. When you look at performance of an index of bonds its only done about 2 , 2. 5 per year for the past like six years, five years, four years this year, you know, youre doing its a little bit better doing 3 on a bond index and Bond Investors should really be much more conservative relative to credit risk and Interest Rate risk as we enter 2018. Interesting josh, you brought us a trade at the very end of fridays program and i wanted you to run it by jeffrey and it regarded the tips that you said you had recently gotten into. So weve been long tips, and one of the things that the Investment Committee is talking about is exactly what jeffrey is talking about. This might be the first year in a long time where being concerned about inflation doesnt make you look ridiculous by year end 2018 and actually to jeffreys point, commodities are up two years in a row for the First Time Since prior to the financial crisis, so we havent had backtoback years, and you are going to see a lot of interest in commodities so i agree what he had to say, but i guess my question to, that jeffrey, tips are pretty straightforward. You can do a ladder, an etf and the commodities questions is very hard and even for fas like myself, the products are terrible the 3 and 30 on managed futures make them had a nonstarter for did i fushries and the publicly traded etms, those have a different problem. If you buy the ubs issued approximate. Thats what how would you get around that. Thanks for the pitch, the double Strategic Fund is the teens that problem. Go long. And all the things you are talking about. But the tips idea is interesting because i was negative on tips for ten years. I was negative on tips and negative on financial stocks for ten years, from 2006 to july 6th of 2016 when we turned positive on tips because we thought the Inflation Expectations that were priced into tips versus nominals, when the tenyear treasury was down at 1. 32 intraday just absurd. They were talking about the incredible low inflation rate existing for the next ten years so we bought tips for the first time and weve traded in and out of them. They should have done better from the selloff of the ten your tip isnt when you raise rates, something about Inflation Expectations so tips are a good vehicle to use t. And in particular it seems to me that shorter term tips where you dont have any kind of Interest Rate effect, although tips have less Interest Rate risk anyway relative to the inflation tiein they seem pretty cheap it the seems to me that its a good time to be owning the securities as part of a bond portfolio. Lets jump right back to washington, d. C. For a moment with more breaking news with our ylan mui on the tax developments. Reporter scott, we just heard from two republican senators who have been on the fence on the tax bill in the past and whose support is critical, senator ron johnson of wisconsin and senator are collins of maine hes reserving judgment until he saw the final details. Wanted to see a bigger deduction for passthroughs and was happy to see the corporate rate inch up to 21 in the current version of the bill. Susan collins wont make a decision until she sees the final text, but she said that the issues that she cares deeply about are being addressed in the negotiations, so they are withholding judgment for now, still possibly a yes as always try to get this done and locked down before the week is out. Back over to you. I have a feeling well be back with you shortly. Ylan mui on capitol hill meantime, lets go to the white house where im on javers is standing by what are you hearing at 1600 pennsylvania avenue . Reporter a white house official said they believe here that they do have a deal on taxes. The details are pretty much im told what we reported they would be yesterday the president now is meeting with some of the conferees, the republicans on both the house and senate are having a lunch here hat the white house to go over some of the details, but it would seem that they have gotten this agreement just before that lunch actually started now, the white house has just called reporters in to go tape thatth the top of that lunch it was going to be a private behindthescenes lunch and toys possible within the next couple of minutes we could hear something from the United States and reporters want to did hymn about the tax rates and the alabama of senate race last night and other issues swirling around this white house so be prepared to hear from the president any moment now. We will well go live to the white house for that when we have t. Eamon javers on the north law professor. If you, jeffrey, think that this could be a sell on the news event, is that yet another reason why you continue to favor parts of the emerging markets over the United States as we enter 2018 not really. I think if if theres a setback in u. S. Stocks, you probably have setbacks in global stocks as well its really much longer term oriented eamerica is exchina underperformed from 2011, into 202016 there had been the emerging market caps versus the Global Market cap and the gdp share of owe merging markets versus global gdp for quite a few years they tracked each other exactly, and starting in 2011 they began a massive divergence because, one, commodities started to follow and they are in market or jebted and not the doll you had that and the they were the metric thats basically half of the uth performance of the owe merging markets over the Second Quarter the ratio remains only a little more than half that about, half other in the United States and when you talk about emerging market investing beyond, that have you to start with the dollar if the dollar is going to be rallying you dont want to be in emerging markets versus u. S. Stocks as a u. S. Investor, but clearly the dollar has not opinion rallying its been falling all year its rallied since august which can be expected given the magnitude of the selloff, but i believe that the dollar is going to fall again after this correction runs its course it was down about 91 or so it should make it up to about 96 on the dixie at 94 or so yesterday, so its were not talking about much of a real, but i think after that the dollar will take and youve got Economic Growth on the side of emerging market and youre got the doll their that will be in favor of it. Im main dinning youve zeroed in on india. I have liked it for years and ton love it. Ind is up 35 year to date and basic dynamic there is if you take the template of china over the past 35 years, you can over that when i first five years ago, crony capitalism, paytoplay eel system and i say there ice so much and they have to get wetting to up um their economy because the labor force will grow by 200 Million People over the next generation or so thats what happened to china. They had 300 Million People that joined the labor force over the past 30 years or so and you need have jobs for those people or youll have riots and political instability so i believe india has the most powerful demographic story and the most room for improvement and similar to our s, you might panic what you what to to is stay in for your child eats education. Changing gears, what do you make of bitcoin. Its big rock phase. Jung boards, one my frayed its dad it crypto kitties. Its kick tour of a cat and i think they are now trying to him it for their 400,000 hand the fact that were talking about it 24 7 puts us back to where silver was in 2011 and remember apple in 2012. I famously said short apple and go long natural gas and a israel did actually drop 40 and one. Reasons is i was watching cnbc and i was traveling and one fellow came on, before presplit, so the stock was at 600, 700, and one guy game on and said my target is 1,000, and im like that doesnt like theres much an hour later someone kim and hate i know of the an moist north. And he gets no a nutty thing and yesterday on cnbc somebody was putting out million number 20 years from now, i think he said, but still a million. Youre getting to the point where youre trying to get notoriety forgot how high a prediction you can make, and the fact that were talking about if so constantly remains mow, about to do my just markets webcast, the biggest one of the year and coming up on january 9th people what i do is buck with only particular, and free of a Compliance Regime that surrounds it any time we talk about our funds. I was watching cnbc to make sure that i was right up to the minute, because it is something happens you want to be on top of it. Yeah. Youre in the right place. And whats going on is the show for like two hours was oil, wti, tick by tick. Actually on the screen tick by tick and it was about how can it go . It was at 26 a bill and somebody came out and said its fog 25, as if thats some kind of a forecast. It went from 95 to 26 and someone is trying to make a name for themselves as if thats a 25 or if thats a income and Standard Charter bank is i said im massively willish on aim and how its going to fall further. That seempts where bitcoin is right now. Can it go higher sure i turned negative on the negative in september 30th of 1999 if you shorted the nasdaq, you ultimately made a killing. However, in the Fourth Quarter of 1999 i think went up 80 , so you absolutely got varied if you short. If you short bitcoin today, i think youll make money. Can it go higher of course, its in a massive momentum sort of a deal, but crypto kitties, to me thats the big work something is wrong mere. You dont own any not tore me. Im very i have no idea in these trading markets. My mother is 86 years old and sent me an email with a link from her cousins daughter about buying bitcoin and why you should get in now on the ground floor and she said what do you i and i said, ma, usually this type of activity doesnt come up at the bottom. Usually comes up closer to the top. Jon najarian, something for jeffrey on bitcoin absolutely. Jeffrey, great to have you on the show and to that bitcoin question i remember reading that your mom had texted you that, and i remembered at the time because pete and i had just meet with pete brigger, obvious life fortress and just about the same time that you were talking about that in an article about your mother texting you that, i remember it was under had 4,000. Roughly 38 hub or Something Like that. I think its 45 money, youre close. And know it is a. Right. If not in bitcoin are there any other crypto currencies that you would focus on because perhaps you think bitcoin is too far too fast anybody else that you would look at i know guys in your office are talking about it every day. Yeah. Youve got that right. Weve got one of our guys that bought it a couple years ago, you know, and hes feeling, it right . Yeah. If i was going to buy a crypto would i buy bitcoin thats the up i would buy. Okay. Certainly i wouldnt buy crypto kitties for sure, but i would stick with bitcoin its the one that is, you know, has the has the real Trading Volume and the like and theres a lot of, you know, weird pink sheet stuff going on around, you know, some of these the icos. The third tier crypto and companies around that. I wouldnt touch those with a barge pole thats just me im very conservative. Im not interested im a buy low guy. Thats basically what i do when something has gone up a lot im not a momentum player and i dont like buying things on momentum bitcoin is a massive momentum play it just doesnt suit me at all some are daying its a i dont think its legit i dont think they ultimatelyler of the purpose first of all, i think the 20yearolds that know all the sthufld, the masters of the universe tell me im dead wrong. Im a little os if i and i believe what can be donnell can can be undone and beyond that i dont think they will knee you of the government control and thats i think its the other way around it will particularly be able to promote is everything could be followed and i do believe some of the Key Technology thats behind these crypto currencies was developed by the nsa if thats true, objection lit government has some knowledge of whats going on behind the scenes, so i just on a philosophic basis i dont real believe in them and i also think governments will fight toothandnail if they cant control them in any way. They will fight toothandnail to suppress them because theres complete inconsistency between a crypto currency world and a world of nation states. Interesting ylan mui has another update for us back in d. C. Regarding taxes. Ylan, what have you picked up now . Reporter im hearing from two sources that the corporate alternative minimum tax will not be included in the final version of the bill. It had been repealed in the house version of the bill, but the Senate Version of the bill had kept it, and companies were wore theyd by keeping the corporate amt you were essentially undercutting the benefits of a lower rate but now hearing from two sources that the corporate amt is out back over to you anything youre hearing on first in first out which you know, ylan, weve been covering almost every day on this program . Reporter yes i know its extremely important to us, and did i ask diane black, chairwoman of the Budget Committee and one of the tax negotiators about this issue this morning she said its still part of the discussion but did not hint which way they were leaning. Yeah. Well see if there are any developments on that ylan, thanks so much. The first in first out thing, you know, larry kudlow called it the dumbest thing hes ever heard. Theres a lot of things about this tax plan that are being discussed that are troubling to me the kind of micro management of it is troubling to me. This first in first out thing, they are trying nickel and dime, find ways to squeeze yet more money out of investors and out of people like me, and i i dont mind paying taxes. I actually feel its a civic duty to pay taxes and what gets my goat and stan duck miller was on with kelly about the carried interest and how many times did President Trump are the talk about the unfairness of the carried deduction did, it a lot, one of the talking points on his stum stan used the word offensive i couldnt agree more. It is just unbelievable to me that that survives the context of trying to have tax reform beyond that, you have this idea of the passthrough rate they specifically call out Investment Management businesses as being a Service Company that cannot do the passthrough it is the surgical nature of this youre a Hedge Fund Billionaire and you are a winner for some reason, they are doing the exact same activity, trading securities, investing other peoples money and being treated completely differently it sound like maintaining the swa swamp. The deductability of state taxes. I voted for him over hillary. I didnt support him i predicted he would win way back before the primaries started. Im not a trump hater. I like some of the things he does and not others. His grasp of the truth is imprecise. Even the way he speaks his policies is imprecise. It is like the truth is a range. He approximates what he is going to do. It is a very odd way of operating. He promises things that dont get delivered a lot, because it is approximating what he says he is going to do jacque deangelis, we will jump back to headquarters for you for futures. The copper rally, 1 we are watching that closely copper has been on a terror, trading about 305. Do you see more up side in 2018 . I think a lot will depend on what is going on in the emerging market world chinese demand was fan it tastid then it is sluggish and we are Getting Better numbers from november we know india has been fans tick over t fantastic over the last year lets watch this 305 level maybe we get back to 320 we have been in a longer term bull trend it continues in its own direction to the up side jim, you are at 320 are you watching that level . I like that level on december 5th, it touched 294. It rejected it pretty quickly. If it gets over 310, i think 330. Thanks, guys. For more futures, head to the website. The halftimeept bk teth quick break this is where i trade andrs. Manage my portfolio. Since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. Okay. Im plugged into equities trade confirmed and i have Global Access 24 7. Meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. Visit learnfuturestoday. Com to see what adding futures can do for you. Why did you take Credit Card Debt on . Second kid. Private school. Medical bills. Moving costs. Solid ground. A personal loan from sofi is a smart way to consolidate Credit Card Debt. Certain borrowers cut their credit card Interest Rates 42 and increased Credit Scores 17 points on average. Borrow up to 100,000 with low rates and no hidden fees. Find your rate in just two minutes, and take on your debt at sofi. Com. Were back at double line live in los angeles. Any moment, we are expected to hear from President Trump on these developments around the gop tax plan we will go live to the white house. As we are waiting for the president , and speaking of him, appointing jay powell, is he going to be a good fed chair you threw out neal kashkaris name was that real . It was to make a point to not have a hawkish person in there powell is a slight upgrade i dont dislike janet yellen her legacy is going to be strong she got us off zero and raised rates a number of times, five. She started normalizing quantitative tightening. I have to interrupt you thank you very much. We appreciate it i will also be speaking at 3 00 today, a little more about whats happening with this incredible journey and what we are doing with regard to bringing down taxes, the largest tax cut ever i appreciate you being here today. I wanted to thank the incredible members of the house and senate that have been working so hard we are very, very close to a historic legislative victory, the likes of which rarely has this country seen. I think i can say, kevin, and orren, that we are getting very close. I know a lot of the folks we would like to have here, we said, if you have your choice, stay back and get it done. They are all working and negotiating some final points. We are very, very close. This bill is vital to the American People for many reasons. First of all, it is going to have a tax cut the likes of which we havent seen for not only business but for the working families of our country. It is really a tax cut based on jobs and also very good for companies, which also means jobs the typical family of four earning 75,000 will see an income tax cut of 2000. Thats 2000 in their pocket additional to spend on whatever they want to spend or they could save the money also. You do have a lot of families, in the old days, they saved money. They will be saving it in many cases. Second, the bill is going to cut taxes for american businesses, big ones and small ones, so they can grow higher and compete all around the world right now, they are paying 35 thats the highest in the industrialized world, in many cases, by far. Well be bringing that down to a number that will be extremely impressive to a lot of people. I dont think ill give them the surprise yet, kevin. Maybe ill hold the surprise i think the businesses will be very happy and we will be able to compete all over the world. Sird, third, we are simplifying our broken system. It is so complicated, nobody can figure it out. Tax returns that are very, very big and large and they have to go out and Hire Companies to do them we are fixing the system finally, the plan is going to bring trillions of dollars back into the United States, money thats offshore. You have been hearing me say 5 2. 5 trillion for years. It is probably going to be more than that, 4 trillion it is so much money, we dont know how much it is. Look at the great companies, apple and so many others they have billions of dollars overseas that they want to bring back now, they are going to be able to bring it back well be spending that money theyll be spending that money right here, jobs and lots of other good things. While the media has focused on the difference between the house and senate bills, i can only tell you that we have very, very talented representatives right here i think i can say, or rren thatw are very close well get it done i want to thank senator orrin hatch and kevin brady. You have been really amazing i shouldnt say that until we sign weve been there too many times. Lets get the vote first, right . I want to thank my whole team, gary and steve and everybody, the whole team has been really Something Special and diane, thank you very much for everything so we are very close to getting it done. We are very close to voting. Our economy, as you know, has surged from where it was when i took it over we were having an economy going in the wrong direction they can say all they want about the last administration or even administrations. This country was going in the