Does seem to be pretty good between now and the end of the year. Well, i mean, look, just from a Bigger Picture, we talk about trend a lot and i think you have to respect the primary trend, and so from that standpoint lets review what went on last week, a holidayshortened week but so what. A new record alltime high in the nasdaq and the dow, and then you had the canary in the coal mine that was supposed to be down and a new 50week high in the lts so you can look at all these things and say im going to go the other way of things. Youll be on the wrong side of history of over 100 years of market data that we have Bigger Picture the trend is still higher doesnt mean that you cant have a deterioration in the internals and get a correction of course, you could, but im just pointing out thats not whats happening now get a day like today, the market hits new alltime highs at the open and people pull back and whats the reason . Is it north korea . Welcome to sell on that news if you want, but big picture this market is still under accumulation until proven otherwise. Kevin griffin of citadel was on the halftime with the with leseley picker and says where he sees the stock market at here and now. Were clearly at valuations at more stretched than typical and at a very constructive level for prices extremely low inflation and Interest Rates and those create strong underpaces for increased valuations. The point josh is making as well. Thats the setup not only seasonally, as people point to, but fundamentally the stock market is still in a pretty good position. And thats been the story of the market right there where else are you going to put money is in the interpretation of what they said. Youve got low inflation and low rates so put it into equities, and i do think that continues. What well have coming up though is some volatility from the tax plan, right . Youll see it go both ways as the senate going to vote on it maybe they approve it, and maybe they dont and if you do you have to have the two parts of congress get together, and i think that will croat volatility. Is that the only wild card in between now and the end of the year, the determination factor as to whether stocks have a classic year end santa claus rally and then some . Thats the only predictable wild card. North korea does something stupider than another test thats a wild card and predictable wild card is when you get volatility which means thats good volatility because you can buy you can buy when the market trades down, thats how you make money you absolutely need volatility to generate return in terms of secretariors, look, were coming in front of what probably is a hike in december, december fed meeting and that will help drive financials higher through the end of the year i dont expect the testimony to be anything different than what weve seen but thats an opportunity. Financials are right in the middle of the pack year to date where deck has led up the and financials up 12. 5 year to date, and whats whats really to make the case though that over the next five weeks were finally going to get this pick up because Interest Rates financials . Specifically for financials i dont know if youll have enough concrete evidence over the next five weeks to justify that and we can say, okay, its going to be the moment they appreciate. Language along with the expected rate hike. Had that all week. Havent had language accompanied by a hike. Keep in mind for the bert part of a year the hikes have come with tenyear yields continuing to fall and the 2 to 10 spread going below 50 basis points financials have actually performed relatively well in that environment i would just say to what josh and steve are pointing out, sometimes the best trade is no trade and you might be entering that period for the time of the year where really whats your incentive sell without some visibility on what that tax plan is going to be i thought, kevin ollie, late last week you were taking chips off the table in some of your positions and maybe get hag little more cautious and expecting there could be some sort of a wreck. Are you at odds with josh brown and ken griffin . No, im not i see the same issue its all about competition where else do you put capital to work i dont see any value in fixed income i dont see value in high yield or in government bonds so im also biased to equities but would i add this you know, you talk about issues that could hurt the market in the short and midterm no one is focused on an inverted yield curve yet. 60 to 70 basis points between the two and the tenyear that gets a little concerning. Its wide open everybody can see it get the fed hike in december and everybody worries about an inverted yield curve which is never a good idea for markets. Can you try to come up with ideas why that does happen that does worry me i look at it this way. If im deploying more money, im more led towards small midcappish now because im a buyer into the tax reform of some kind. I think they will benefit more than the s p i ask everybody this question. I talk every day about this to people offering me ideas every morning. Are we going to get 20 of the s p index next year . I dont think so, so at some point youve got to pick sectors or stocks or gearing physical. Theres better value in europe right now. Asia beat europe this year you know, were expensive. Were not cheap. Were not inexpensive where the rates, are but im deploying more money domestically in small and mid and staying on my european theme for next year and, yes, i took some off the table on fangs. What about the notion that ken griffin says were in the seventh inning of this this bull market . Right, so you still have some time to go, and then if you look at the sure. Sure, stocks may not be cheap, but by a number of different metrix they are not exactly ridiculously expensive nor is there a level of euphoria you would normally see in the absolute latest stages of a cycle. I love wall of worry. I do like that, but i had my research guys do a little work this morning, and i said go back and look at the s p index versus the aristocrats dividend index and give me the last 20 years n. 2016 the dividend stocks outperformed the s p 2017, they got slaughtered its a flipflop back and forth. If you really think youre going to get 70 return out of the s p next year, which would be historically more a norm after a run weve had in 16, where do you want that to come from all Capital Appreciation you want to derisk your portfolio bit looking back at what history teaches you and go more towards conservative stocks that will give you some Capital Appreciation but maybe get 3 of cash returned in the form of capital returns and dividends. Thats where uncle kevin is going. Im going into a more conservative mode because i think im going to get a repeat of 2016 and take a little off the table on the high pe flyers now and put them into more conservative names in the s p. Hey, kevin, its joe. So by derisking, the obvious place would look would have to be in technology and clearly thats got the strongest fundamentals, is that what youre suggesting should be done i Like Technology with a lot of cash on the Balance Sheet which kind of gets me to an Apple Microsoft kind of mood which is where i am right now. Pulling out of some of the real high flyers that returned us too much this year, the nvidias of the year and all that that was great. I feel warm and fuzz beit, but when i think about downside now, i ask myself wheres the market going to take so li s if theres a correction less levered and cash rich and dividendpaying stocks and theres dyno text returning that way. Capital hasnt been a bad thing for apple or microsoft those are the winners in my portfolio that im overweight and i pulled a lot off the table on the high fliers its kind of interesting that this is something you see flipflopping back every 24 months. Tech is up 24 year to date its not as if everybody thinks this goes up unabated, right Morgan Stanley has a note wondering whether its time for a pause, especially in the chip names. The problem is the fundamentals are so strong in technology right now now geffen brings up a point, highly levered tech right now is actually getting punished on the debt side, but those companies are few and mar fine. Right. Most tech companies, the Chip Companies arent as badly leveled and theres time to take money off the table and i agree. Some of the cashrich companies. Oracle has a ton of cash on its Balance Sheet hand will benefit whether you get tax reform or not and they will increase their dividend and its a pe thats market multipast its not at 30, 40 times. The senate could vote on the republican tax plan as early as this week. Our eamon javers at the white house with the latest on how the vote count is shaping up eamon . Yeah, scott thats right with the president back from thanksgiving break last night hes here hat the white house, and now its a flat sprint from here until christmas when they think that they can have tax reform passed by the end of the year, so take a look at whats on the december agenda and youll see how packed this agenda s. Today it starts in half han hour had the president will be having lunch with the Vice President and several members of the Senate Finance committee tomorrow the president is the going to the Senate Policy lunch. Hes also going to meet with the bipartisan congressional leadership so hell have one event with republicans and one event with bipartisan leaders and then came an eye on december the 8th, the day where we expect we could have a debate about the Government Shutdown because government funding expires that day, so that will add to the mix, some very blizzard policy, including daca, the immigration measure which democrat suggest they might throw into that debate so that could swirl everything in a way thats very up predictable heres where we go from here we expect there will be a vote in the senate and if that happens the senate will pass the tax bill and then it goes to the house and senate and back to a conference they have to reconcile these two versions of the bill that are out there, the house bill and the senate bit as i say they hope to have all of this done by christmas. What are the big stumbling blocks theres big moving parts here, scott, including the individual mandate on obamacare thats something that could be a real difficult negotiation it is in the senate bill but not in the house bill. Theres some moderate republican senators that could be a Sticking Point for them though i talked to a senior white house officials who said he doesnt believe theres any firm no vote at all in the senate right now also youve got the difficulty of reconciling the individual tax brackets remember, there are a Different Number of brackets four bracket in the house bill and seven in the senate bill and they have to figure that out the oneyear delate 20 Corporate Tax rate and the elimination of s. A. L. T both bills treat the state and local taxes differently and whether or not you can deduct them so all of that has to be ironed out in that conference committee, and then they got to have the votes for final passage which they expect to be able to do before christmas, scott a lot on the plate here. I talked to that Senior Administration official here at the white house today who said that even if the vote in the senate slips until next week, they still are optimistic they can have it done by christmas but its getting very, very tight. Lots to get done. Eamon javers, north lawn of the white house for us among the sectors likely to get and expected to get a benefit from a change in the corporate rate is technology, especially a stock like apple bernsteins Tony Sacconaghi says that company could get an 18 jump in earnings tony joins us by phone welcome back. Good morning, scott boy, that apple number, let just start there. That really pops out at you. Is that a surprise 18. 3 boost in reported earnings yeah. Its pretty significant. I mean, apple has a relatively high reported tax rate today of about 25 , and under proposed tax legislation they are going to pay 20 on u. S. Earnings and probably will pay something closer to 10 on foreign earnings, so on the blended basis, apple may have a tax rate that is in the very low teens on a goforward basis and you run through and thats a dramatic increase in report earnings, and i would underscore its reported earnings from a cash flow perspective theres probably going to be little impact but certainly from a reported eps perspective it could be very significant. Yeah. At the same time though you say expected tax reform would have im reading from your note would have a smaller impact on the tech sector versus the rest market. Why so oh, if you look at the tax rail for tech today as a sector. Its tax rate is 19. 5 . The rest market is at 24. 6 . So if you end up having a lower tax rate, something thats 20 or on a global basis going to be less than 20, tech is simply not going to benefit as much because its starting from an existing lower tax rate. Im looking at some of the companies that you think could benefit beyond a its certainly the headline grabber and quite a number to go along with it, but toys krisko and microsoft, oracle, even adp you put in this basket of winners, so to speak. Absolutely. There are a couple of different kinds of companies that will benefit from the proposed tax reform the first one is companies that currently pay a high proportion of the revenues in the u. S. And as a result have very high existing tax rates and thats Companies Like visa, adp, texas instruments. Additionally there are companies that have very large offshore cash balances, and they are going to be able to repatriate those cash balls so were looking at apple with 252 billion in offshore cash and microsoft with 128 billion offshore or oracle with 450 billion offshore and cisco with 67 billion offshore, 20 plus of their market caps in cash that can come back, and obviously it can be used to either repurchase shares, be dividended out or used for investment or acquisitions. Yeah, at the same time with the haves theres the havenots and ibm falls into your list along with hpe and hpq of companies that would be socalled losers out of all of this correct so, you know, the companies that are going to benefit less are companies that have existing low tax rates and have little to no trapped offshore cash an Companies Like ibm have a tax rate today thats in the 12 to is a range so their tax rate may not go down. It may actually gun, and they dont really have any trapped offshore cash and the same is true with hpq and hbe, so in this tax reform, you know, certainly on a relative basis and perhaps even on an absolute base they may be they may be losers. Interesting tony, thanks for jumping on the phone. Well talk to you again soon. Thoughts on these stocks that you open or in this group . Quite a few of those, microsoft, krisko and oracle one of the other things i think could be a Silver Lining in this if the tax does get passed corporations with lower tax rates will spend money on tax. Look at microsoft, look at krisk cisco. Joe, visa a name that can work . And a group over at bernstein. Would i go back to what sarat has said and what companies spend with the lower tax rate and the software size is one particular industry that stands out. Has to be a winner in the Global Environment that were in right now thats focused on growing the company. How about this apple number, 18. 3 bump to reported eps thats fantastic, and let me tell you the other good news on apple is they are apparently cured to a large extent production issues because the availability of the phone has increased dramaticically i was at an apple store on friday they got two shipments of the x so man is not strong or they have increased production. My bet is they have increased production. Is that an apple watch i see you wearing . Yes, it is, and i wore it for your benefit i just got it, got it for working out, great, the cellular connectivity great innovation. Does it work . Oh, it is. Do you know how it works. I know how most of it works. You literally bought an apple watch this weekend i did, i did i. Are you with him . You guys hang out after school saw from the notes and i almost fell out of my chair. I did its a great device. The guy who criticizes this finally buys the stock the guy who criticizes that finally buys the watch, and whats next . And im long calls, the february is a 2180s which im long its a great stock. Hes a threedimensional person has a web of contradictions and, you know, thats thats normal. People should be allowed to change their mind. He knows hes been wrong with this argument all the time. Im not wrong with the argument in real life he knows. Hes never wrong. As a matter of fact, an Apple Employee came up to me in the store and said i agree with you on innovation points. Nonsense. Absolutely. Whats his name he also said im his favorite person on the show. Now its definitely bs. So that buttresses his credibility significantly. Kevin oleary, how about this number and the bump that apple can get or another Technology Company from the tax reform plan i want to go i want to go back to that to that analyst looking at, you know, apple in conjunction with a lot of other companies and saying that tech doesnt benefit. Theres another aspect to this every s p company, largecap company with 47 of their revenues abroad has been contorting themselves for years to get their tax rate below 20 . So my argument is why not just go to the russell 2000 and find the large cap out of those which is around 4 billion average theres 300 companies in the russell 2000, and buy that basket because 100 of their revenue is tasksed at a very high rate north of 30 , so if you are a believer in tax reform you wont get it out of the s p. Youll get it in allamerican made revenue and domestically. Thats where it is its sitting in the large cappish and midcappish, about 400 of them, in the russell 2000, and i like that play better i think its going to outperform the s p next year. Theres actual evidence statistically to that, a high tax rate s p company so far has underperformed a low tax rate s p company 8 versus 20 , okay . Shouldnt the street be smart enough to recognize the Corporate Tax rate change and reward those highrate tax names . So i think you need to focus on what the companies are going to do. Thats evidence that the street knew pretty much all along from march on that this wasnt happening this year, i would say. So we have this argument, oh, is tax reform priced n. Definitely not, because if it were, then you would have seen a much smaller disparity in the performance in the high tax rate. You also have to look at the companies that have low tax rate and a lot of them are making money. Right. And they are not Productive Companies so thats going to prejudice those statistics. All right good stuff. Were just Getting Started on the Halftime Report. For the last year, its been hip to be square the stock up 256 in 12 months now one analyst says enough is enough. 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Get ready, because were helping leading companies see it and see it throughwith digital. Welcome back take a look at shares of skwlar toda of square today getting hammered today what a year its been. The scott got downgraded and its a sell with a 30 price target the stock is trading at 43. What do you make of it, joe . I think it has nothing to do with bitcoin lets see evidence that the stock is topping out the Revenue Growth is very strong, above 45 and on a valuation basis it could look rich there are concerns at the company but overall the integration and adoption on the large merchant side i think is something thats acwill sell rating the stock are you getting your first shakeout youre getting some of the late longs into the marketplace that are getting out, but if youre in the stock over the course of the year, i dont think you get shaken out by today. Josh, of the valuation quote already reflects emphatic and unimpeded growth while failing to factor in credit and macrorelated risks. You know, scott, i like these kinds of downgrades in a name that i dont yet own because i feel they create opportunity at the end of the day investors only care about valuation and balances temporarily when you have a company thats growing at the rate that joe just cited ultimately the dips are bought very, very quickly i might take an opportunity to get in you have to believe two things are true the first it is this is now selling at 28 times 2020 ebitda so the only reason you would buy at that valuation is, a, you dont care about that valuation at all and youre just a momentum player or, b, you think the street is not thinking enough about how big the growth could be so maybe the truth is somewhere in between. Clearly they are thinking about how big the growth can be if the stock is up 220 year to date. Correct i want to get into the bitcoin aspect do i think to some extent the last thrust we saw in this name to the upside did have a little bit to do with people wanting to look for a play on crypto currency in full disclosure, square reached out to me. I may be a trial user of bitcoin cash to transact in bitcoin. Im not sure yet, but this is going to be something that will continue to go up as long as bitcoin remains in the public eye. Square is a stock thats going to be associated with that, and i dont think it has nothing to do with it, but its obviously not the real story right now the real story is gross payment volume. Keep us posted on that end as well up next, Pete Najarian sees unusual activity and its in a healthcare sector. The Halftime Report is back in two minutes. I think its terrific. Your kids go to college and you start trading. Yeah, 5 years already. 5 years, hmm. You ever call your broker for help . Once, when volatility spiked. And . By the time they got me an answer, it was too late. Td ameritrades elite service team can handle your toughest questions right away with volatility, its all about your risk distribution. Good to know. Thanks, mike. We got your back kate. Does he do that all the time . Oh yeah, sometimes he pops out of the couch. Help from real traders. Only with td ameritrade. You myour joints. Thing for your heart. Or your digestion. So why wouldnt you take something for the most important part of you. Your brain. With an ingredient originally found in jellyfish, prevagen is now the number one selling brain Health Supplement in drug stores nationwide. Prevagen. The name to remember. Upeace of mind. S we had a power outage for five days total. We lost a lot of food. We actually filed a claim with usaa to replace that spoiled food. And we really appreciated that. Were the webber family and we are usaa members for life. All right. Its almost 12 30. Thats your market picture Dow Jones Industrial average up 32 points. Did have new records before the s p and nasdaq fell into negative territory and thats where we stand right now lets get to Steve Liesman with breaking news. Dallas fed president dallas kaplan making strong comments about market valuations and is increasingly cognizant of financial imbalances which can threaten the sustainability of the expansion. More on what that means for policy for him in a second one, the stock market capitalization is now the highest relative to gdp since 1999 and 2000 and commercial real estate and other markets are, quote, notably extended and also notes its extraordinarily unusual to go one year without a 3 correction and margin debt is now at record less ive looked back and not seen him having said these sorts of things in the past now, all that have said, he sports raising rates in a gradual patient matter doesnt seem to change his immediate outlook on policy, and thats because he supports what he calls strong macro prow dengs Regulatory Bank policies, and ill explain what that means that means using regulation and supervision to keep the banks from being overly extended and overly leveraged hand vulnerable to a crisis. On another angle he says the size of the employment overshoot is growing which means the economy is believe an unemployment level that would create inflation and the cyclical Inflation Forces are building and he said the fed, quote, may get behind the curve and wants to avoid a situation where the fed plays catchup. Scott, its hard for me to figure out the reason why hes saying these things right now. Obviously the market has been through another fairly extensive leg up havent heard from him since then in this regard, but more importantly hes thinking about what it means for policy for a guy who has the vote this year and not next year. He does join the boston fed president in thinking more about Monetary Policy through the prism of market valuation. Scott . Hes not the chair obviously. No. But is this his irrational exuberance moment . Well, its a moment where hes saying things may be a little irrational and a little exuberant but saying right now that not really changing his outlook on policy so thats really where i would like to know where this comes down if he goes on to still say gradual and patient policy increases and that all hes doing is justifying what the market already knows for december and not really changing the outlook next yore with three rate hikes the question for me, okay, the december hike is pretty much in the bag. Is it time to think that members of the federal Market Committee in addition, by the way, with the new chair likely coming in by the way, he has had a nomination hearing tomorrow that will be interesting to see what he thinks about this is this a time to think about more rate hikes in 2018 perhaps motivated by concerns over market valuations and financial imbalances though it all comes down to the word gradual. And what that means gradual is 3 or 4 or maybe something more especially, scott, if we start to see inflation start to tick up and kaplan is right about that a footnote on this which is last week yellen said shes more uncertain about inflation returning back to the 2 target, and thats a big thing that well be listening for tomorrow in the powell nomination hearing. You always i dont know, youre somewhat weary when somebody associated with the fed starts to talk about asset prices and other alleged bubbles on the same day that ken griffin of citadel is saying were in the seventh inning and the stocks are expensive its not like this overly youvic moments that were in. The most interesting thing about this thing doing this report today was what your traders say around the desk when they hear fed guys talk about the markets. Before they do, i bet they are a little hot under the collar there, but before they do, i will point out kaplan is a former Goldman Sachs man, much more of a market guy than he is an economist Monetary Policy guy. Sure. Joe terranova has something. At the beginning of the show scott and i were talking about the gold curve. Right. I wonder, does the fed, okay, do they Pay Attention to it . Do they acknowledge or are they questioned about it and tell us what their interpretation of it is in general the fed does not take a Growth Outlook forecast from the yield curve they more look at it from an inflation standpoint, what the market thinks about inflation. You know, i didnt hear your conversation, but my take on it has been that ultimately the market is maybe hes giving a thumbs down to plans for more rate hikes next year than the ned is apparently forecasting. Im looking at a note that was passed around on our markets desk, and the headline is Morgan Stanley sees flat yield curve by q3 and Recession Risk in 2019 so everybody is sort of trying to figure out where we are in the cycle, both marketwise and and economicwise. Yeah. I mean, im not going to make any predictions about a flat yield curve today or next year predicting recession in 2019 you know, that to me seems a little bit on the speculative side what i am interested in is whether the fed ends up making a mistake here hand whether or not it ends up going too far relative to both underlying inflation and the needs of the economy. We do know that bank lending has been a little bit on the weak side and the question is whether thats a regulatory matter or a Monetary Policy matter interesting to me. Thanks so much. Pleasure, scott. Maybe thats one of the risks we havent really discussed at all. I think its only about half. As a policy error by the fed which steve brings up towards end of our conversation. Thats always a risk. Maybe more so now than it has been in a decade at least. But its a question of how fast they move, not if they move and the side of it so if they do it in a measure way. The people that i speak to think that three hikes are in the pag for next week. Didnt goldman have a fourhike map or Something Like that last week if not the week before in terms of the flat yield curve thats coming from so much more supply coming from the short end of the curve, the very short end, so thats pushing all that supply, pushing the rates higher its not always predictive of a recession. Only in about half the time has there been a recession from a flattening yield curve now, every recession has had a flat inverted yield curve but you cant look at it the other way around. He basically says i see a potential bubble over there and see a potential bubble over there and over there. Its good. But we still you know whats good about that ill tell you whats good about that is the fact that theres no bubble where all the leverage is. Thats actually a good thing. I think i think i think some of the more caricature type bubbles where its so obvious are very far removed from the big ones that really matter, so people talk about crypto and tulips its not systemic. No Major Financial Institution will collapse because of anything going on. Five 80 collapses in the last five years and the economy hasnt noticed its 150 billion. Who cares. I think the Bigger Picture here its good to have a fed member with Market Experience prior to the financial crisis a story where they had one bloomberg terminal in the entire building in d. C. We know its not the case now. I like that they are being vigilant and looking at asset prize, and ill tell you something, hes exactly right. Theres a doublesided coin. The first thing you is say weve never had a bear market start just because of time in other words, this dego on for a very long period of time theres no stop watch and that being said the other side of the coin is the longer it goes on the more the imbalances build up and if we get these scenarios where people start to actas though theres no risk you are going to have a situation where were set up for much worse than had a correction i like that they are paying attention and speaking to the market about this. Doesnt sound like had a market topical. Just sounds like fed officials being real politic and im totally okay with this. Lets switch gears and bring in Peter Najarian up in minneapolis for a look at whats moving in the Options Market some unusual activity that you found for us today, pete yeah, and ill be real quick for you, scott humana is the one were looking and the stock goes back and bounced off the 200 day recently and sits around the 100 day. I know josh looks at these things and i do think that the charts come into play other has well this is a company with incredible growth and we just heard in some of the guidance they gave us a great look ahead in terms of where they see that growth going in 2018 january 250 calls, very aggressively bought. 3,200 of these and paid over 5. 5. 60 thats a couple Million Dollar trade here right now just in the options. I liked what we saw. The stock was trading about 2422 and 243 in that range so what i did was i actually bought the stock. I actually believe in the past when weve seen option activity here in humana the stock has reacted very, very soon after that because of that i like the stock position right now and it gives me room up towards that 250 level until january, and then ill have to reevaluate the position. I got you pete, well see you back here on desk on wednesday. Look forward to it. Look forward to it, man hope you had a good thanksgiving with your family as well sue herera has the headlines for us. Hello, everyone heres whats happening at this hour american actress Meghan Markel showing off her Engagement Ring after her engagement to prince harry was announced. The ring belongs two diamonds that belonged to princess diana. The two will marry in the spring of 2018. The south Korean Defense minister saying theres been a violation of the armistice agreement for north korea to shoot someone who was trying to defect the comment come in the wake of a shooting incident there earlier this month. Clouds of thick smoke billowing from the top of indonesias tall envolcano as it continues to spew volcanic ash and lava the country raised its warning level to the highest level and told nearby residents to evacuate balis airport was also closed. And anthony senerc hy a has died he served as early inspiration for the ice bucket challenge and has raised 220 million for a. L. S. Research. He was 46 years old. Thats the news update this year Michelle Carusocabrera is here with whats coming up on power lunch. Thanks, sue power lunch at the top of the hour back to business for Congress Tags returns from the holiday break with a long todo list including taxes. What to expect and whats at stake and what are the odds that anything gets done plus, the bitcoin boom what is behind this massive rally that weve seen over the last couple of days . How you can play the krimto currency craze. And Consumer Reports scoured the top retail sites and looked for the best cyber monday deals. Well share those with you ahead. All th wathen power lunch continues in 19 minutes. Dont move though because the Halftime Report is back right after this whats Critical Thinking like . A basketball costs 14. Whats team spirit worth . cheers whats it worth to talk to your mom . Whats the value of a walk in the woods . The value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. 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According to our data partners at kensho, if youre considering buying stock before the end of the year, wait until the second half of december. The dow, s p andnasdaq and russell do better in the second half of the month than they do in the first half of the month for more go to cnbc. Com kensho. Back on the Halftime Report. Citadel founder and ceo ken griffin, one of the most successful and influential investors you have our time spoke exclusively with our leslie pick and with more on what mr. Griffin told her about the rally, weve already cited numerous times in the show his comments about being in the seventh inning, but there were many good bullet points from your conversation. What else did he say scott, thats right he spoke about how valuations were are a bit more stretched than normal but said that good oldfashioned stock picking helped drive the firm owes outperformance so far this year. Griffin said that the market while certainly heated still has room to run. I think were in the seventh inning of this market rally. As i said earlier. Valuations are stretched were not were not at were not in the sort of classic mania that you get at the very end of a bull market someone like the mania that we see in bitcoin today. Griffin said that low rates low inflation and growth and revenue create a supportive backdrop for stock prices and said theres far more euphoria in the crypto currency world. Bitcoin right now has many of the elements of the tulip bulb mania we saw many years ago back in holland and i worry people buying bitcoins dont really understand what they are participating in other than the headline stories of it keeps going higher and i want to make sure i dont miss this opportunity to make some money show is it a fraud no, but these bubbles tend to end in tears, and i worry about how this bubble might end. Griffin said that oftentimes people confuse bitcoin with block chain and he believes the latter will have more profound applications for society scott . Not to put on the spot, leslie, so forgive me if i am, he mentioned disney when he was on the floor of the Stock Exchange now i know eager rang the opening bell down there this morning with mickey mouse. I do not see disney listed in citadels 13f. Do we know if he owns that name or if he just threw it out as a representative of the stocks that are traded on the floor of the exchange we dont know if he actually owns it at this point in time. He was looking around at all the differenttickers here on the exchange wall, speaking during the interview and, of course, that was featured very prominently on the floor of the Stock Exchange, but we dont know if thats specifically something wes currently trading in and out of or his strategy around disney in particular. Piqued my attention and i was wondering if we knew that. Thanks, les. Thank you, scott. The way that citadel works, not your typical hedge fund or asset manager. They run very tight exposures, maybe 10 net long versus mutual funds, for example, 100 long, and its constant turnover so what you would see in a filing or a 13f, thats just there because that happens to be the end of the quarter. Sure. September 30th. So they could be out of that october 1st so you cant really youll never really know their holdings unless youre looking at them specifically in the firm. Coming up the trades on Western Digitals, lowes, l brands and began electric next well do that in the blitz the chase mobile app changed the game for us. We had this plan to go to the hottest place on earth, harness the energy from the sun to develop popcorn. We thought we had the right equipment, we quickly realized we needed more. We were able to send a Wire Transfer to a local vendor and get more Solar Cookers delivered, right here in death valley. Manage business expenses from virtually anywhere. The chase mobile app available with business checking. Chase for business. Make more of whats yours. Right in the heart of the was in his financial crisis, and saw his portfolio drop by double digits. It really scared him out of the markets. His advisor ran the numbers and showed that he wouldnt be able to retire until he was 68. The client realized, i need to get back into the markets i need to get back on track with my plan. The Financial Advisor was able to work with this client. Hes now on track to retire when hes 65. Having someone coach you through it is really the value of a Financial Advisor. All right. Time now for the blitz Western Digital is the first name on the list wes, we mentioned this downgrade earlier by more stgan stanley. He said its still strong but youve got to sell these three to six months ahead of when the beat and the cycle is. Im back to where i was coming into today so recovering some loss i have nothing against the down grades i think it has good upsides. Joe, lows if youre running the mean reversion strategy, youre obviously going to look at lows versus home depot, youll see the p. E. At high 24, low 17. Performance significantly better at home depot quarter to date performance. However, the catchup trade has to have fundamental stories to it and youre not witnessing that at lowes l brands are up 40 in three months. And down 24 for the year so we like the stock its got almost a 5 dividend yield. What youre looking for is next quarter when they get much better and the stock has moved. Norfolk southern has downgraded to sell. The analysts are very clear that this is not a call on railroads or transports. This is a Norfolk Southern they dropped the ball on operations again. Yes specifically, they saythere ar certain issues croppingi up that have led to an erosion this stock has outperformed the transports as a whole and that has to do with coming off of the neck of the coal industry. Im not a fan of the name. Kevin oleary, general electric, your call on the bottom you say 14 is the bottom ive pitched it as the 2018 value idea its an extremely expensive stock at 18 times next years cash earnings and thats a company that is going into the turnaround story i see this stock trading down to 14 which is where i paid for it 14 times the bottom is not in yet its still a big dog and it hasnt finished barking yet. I said your call on the bottom and 14 is the bottom and you said no youre not then you said if it goes to 14 youre buying it help me out. The stock stopped going down. I say the range is 13, 14. Im not a buyer until its in there. But 13, 14, youd be a buyer . Yeah, i would be. But its not a value stock yet. Thanks. See you back here. Ou thank y kevin oleary joining us from toronto. Final trades on the next side of the commercial i think we should do that meeting tomorrow. Well wait. What did you think about her . Its definitely a new idea, but theres no business track record. Well, have you seen her work . No. Is it good . Good . At cognizant, were helping todays leading banks make better lending decisions with new sources of data so, multiply that by her followers, speaking engagements, work experience. Credit history. That more accurately assess a business chances of success. This is a good investment. Shes a good investment. Get ready, because were helping leading companies see it and see it throughwith digital. This is a strategyis, fid recommend. Huh. This actually makes sense. Now on the next page youll see a breakdown of costs. What . Its just. We were going to ask about it but we werent sure when. So thanks. Yeah, thats great. Being clear and upfront. Multiplied by 14,000 Financial Advisors, its a big deal. And its how edward jones makes sense of investing. Now what . Well, after your first reaction, consider your choices. Go it alone, against the irs and its massive resources. Hire a law firm, where youre not a priority. Call your cpa, who can be required to testify against you. Or, call the tax law firm of moskowitz, llp. I went from being a cpa to a tax attorney because our clients needed more. Call us, and let us put our 30 years of tax experience to work for you. The laggards are Western Digital, Micron Technology and applied materials. For more, go to cnbc. Com iq100 who could possibly be against that . Well, the National Debt is 20 trillion. As we keep adding to it, guess who pays the bill . Him. And her. And her. Congress, we should grow the economy. Not the debt. Win an uncertain world . K predictable income pgim sees alpha in real assets. Like agriculture to feed the world. And energy to fuel its growth. Real estate such as ecommerce warehouses. And private debt to finance transportation and infrastructure. Building blocks of strategies to pursue consistent returns over time from over 120 billion dollars in real assets. Partner with pgim. The Global Investment management businesses of prudential. Your bbut as you get older,ing. It naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. Thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. The secret is an ingredient originally discovered. In jellyfish. In clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve shortterm memory. Prevagen. The name to remember. Got a quick programming note for you. Mike nchl ovogratz will be on fast money and bitcoin quickly hit 10,000 well see what he has to say tonight. Look forward to that he was saying drinks on me is probably what he will say. Josh brown . I bought some box last week and added to twitter the type of stocks that run in the santa claus rally. Steve weiss Western Digital and micron. The analysts say micron is still in tact. Okay. Im going to bring up honeywell. New high once again. Thanks, honey. Thanks to all of you for watching that does it for us. Power lunch begins right now. Im Michelle Carusocabrera a critical week for congress the senate aiming to vote on a republican tax plan but there are a lot of things to happen before that. Retail stocks are rallying its the Biggest Online shopping day in history and the top consumer watchdog, two bosses show up to work, now you have one and now you have two, one of the