The good times last for investors . Our first guest today says 2018 will be more challenging jim paulson is chief investment strategist live with us today from minneapolis welcome back. Thanks for having me, scott. I thought things were about to get really good whats the problem well, they could be i i just think theres some challenges that are starting to show up. I dont see a bear market next year but i think well take a pause and could have a correction here. You know, the biggest thing that bothers me is positive economic surprises to me have been a big part of the rally in the last couple of years. The problem today is the economy may do just as well next year, but will no longer surprise anyone because everyone is caught up. Everyone knows theres a synchronized Global Recovery going on the u. S. Is doing well, so even if it continues to do that, it wont have the same positive impact in the market in addition to that, you know, the feds tightening and the cumulative impact of that might start to catch up. Bond yields are backed up a little bit i think they will do more of that next year youve got the dollar backed up. Thats a negative force on growth in the markets. The one that isnt focused on, on the last six months, the m2 money supply now has grown slower than nominal gdp activity a rarity for this econorecovery youve got, ithink youre making a long list youre making a long list. And finally i just say sentiment. I would say sentiment is getting i think it would be poetic or maybe symmetry that we climbed a wall of worry and just when everything looks great, thats when the market starts to struggle. Gotcha. What if i said, well, make were in the early innings of this synchronized Global Recovery what if we get tax resnowstorm what if the fed even in tightening policy is going to do it in such a slow pace, jim, that its really not going to matter much and the economy is Getting Better earnings are going to get even better than what they are now. I think all that could happen, scott, and i im not opposed to the idea. I think maybe the recovery lasts longer yet im just thinking we have a pause and a correction and a gut check and then maybe the bull market continues well just have to see what happens between now and then one of the one of the problems we really have is that while theres a Recession Risk thats low, weve returned to full employment, and so growth at some point is no longer going to be as god as it used to be. Before growth was good because all it did was take up slack resources and reemployment it didnt create any Interest Rate or inflation pressures. Thats not any longer going to be the case. Growth now has both negative and positive consequences. I got you. But what happens what happens if if tax policy or even hopes of it initiate Companies Instead of investing in Human Capital and start investing in capital, start putting capital to work in more meaningful ways that help growth in and of itself i think thats a possibility. I think that were seeing signs of initial Capital Spending cycle here in the last year to 18 months. I think that that could continue may boost productivity which could dampen down overheat fears, but to me, scott, the tax cut at this point in the recovery is extremely odd. To bring a massive fiscal stimulus when were already at almost 4 unemployment and were already seeing overheat pressures, i think a tax cut could do more to stimulate overheat conditions than help the supply side, and if it does that, it could prematurely end the recovery quicker than would otherwise end. Hey, jim, its joe. So obviously after the performance were having in 2017 the s p is nearly 15 and tack that on with 2016 which is a great performing year as well. Yeah, a natural pause in the market thats kind of normal. The question really is what do you do with that does it really make sense when you believe its going to accelerate at some point and youre thinking right now that the return environment is so low, where else do you go to seek any form of yield yeah. Im im with you. Im not pulling out of this market certainly dont want to go to bonds. I think they could be a greater risk than the stock market here. I would get a little more defensive tilt though, and i would continue to move away from the United States which i think has less of the issues that we face that could cause a pause. I think there could be a bigger correction here than abroad, and i think one of the things that happens again next year is the dollar resumes its break lower, and i think that will help overseas markets i would i would tend try to tilt more towards inflation equities or those that benefit more from overheat, and id be really mindful of purging my portfolio as much as i could from bond surrogates, health care, consumer staples, utilities, telecommunications. I think they have severe Downside Risk if the bond yields starts to go up, so im not really saying exit the bull as much as i am saying at this point expect that there could be a correction and get a little more defensively in position and more position for overheat. You say if youre riding the bull, the speed of the shake is going to get a little bit more severe, so you may be put two hands on rather than have one hand on and waving the other one around you know what im talking about. Yeah, i do. And i think we might get a better entry point again to come back more aggressively sometime next year, and you might come back to some of the same things that you lighten up on right now, and when you come back i think youll come back with people that are a little shaken and willing to give some of the aggressive stuff away. I was trying to channel gene wilder in star crazy there or not. But you got it. Real quick as far as stepyear coming back off the october 26th high which was 2. 46, back down to 2. 31. Right. I would love your comments on that, on the rates coming back off that initial basically the area where Jeff Gundlach had told us and others said if we break above 2. 6 then its cady bar the door and it could accelerate faster. We did not do that and we pulled back pretty substantially. When you talk about overseas and a weaker dollar, youre talking about u. S. Companies exporting overseas rather than the companies that are selling more expensive product in dollar terms back to us, right . Well, im just talking about overseas market in general i think that they dont face those markets dont face the overheat pressures as much as we do here. They are behind us in this recovery cycle they are behind news tightening in a lot of ways, and i would be away from the United States market, not entirely, but tilted in that direction. Yeah. As it regards the bond, i certainly havent been right on this i dont understand the tenyear yield is pulling back when i see Wage Inflation pushing in the upper 20s towards 3 and when i see inflation back up to 2. 2 and crude oil, brent now going to two and a halfyear highs i dont get it, obviously. I think were going to break through that 2. 660 area and probably heads towards 3 next year is what i really think, and i do think that overheat fears are going to intensify and well be worried about the fed quick fing its tightening approach, and thats the kind of environment i think well be facing next year. Jim boy, premature on yields for quite a while. Youre not the only one jim, we appreciate the time. Well talk to you again soon. Thanks for having me. Lets kick this around. Josh, what do you make of what he said . Made some good points. Not calling for the end of the bull market. Listen, hes a really bright guy and ive always read his stuff. I dont think he said anything that you couldnt have said in november of any year over the last like there, could be a correction there could be a pause. I know. When are we not in that sflirnt. Are things in danger of ore heating here more so than they are elsewhere even though other markets have outpaced the cygnus. Were now aroifld at the daenger of overheating where it was like were in disinflation bordering on deflation and were in danger of being in this liquidity trap that well never get out of it and the fed cant stimulate, et cetera now thats the other way, its fine what i think he said thats most notable, scott, and what i think everyone watching the show should Pay Attention to is this concept that theres more room overseas last time u. S. Stocks got to this valuation, they were set up for a decade of flat returns with a couple of big crashes in the middle, and it certainly reasonable to suspect that, you know, prospective returns are going to be lower here now take a look overseas asian stocks just hit a tenyear high, and the nikkei just hit a 25year high the nikkei hit a level it hasnt seen since pearl jams first album, 1992. I dont think people are paying enough attention to the massive breakouts in overseas stocks i think were obsessing over what the next 10 in the s p is, and there are markets that could go up 30 , 40 , 50 over the next couple of years that were underexposed to. So is 2018 the year in the overseas market . It was this year. I know they have outperformed the point is it could go on for a decade from 2000 to 2009 the s p gave you nothing and actually an inflation adjusted terms you did worse. Meanwhile, you made huge money overseas european small caps, emerging markets, going on down even nontraditional Asset Classes like mlps and reits, anything but largecap Growth Stocks so if we go into that environment now, nobody should be surprised that weve seen this before. Right in the wheelhouse, you agree with this . Right in the wheelhouse, completely agree with josh and agree with a lot what have jim has had to say and what that is endemic of is the tugofwar that exists between what i would call invested skepticism and fundamentals, this fundamental sweet spot that weve been in. By definition at this point in the cycle youre going to have a downshift in returns what does that mean for investors . You have to be selective and have to start to look for maybe whats lagged, what hasnt worked, where theres going to be a pivot for us that means nonu. S. And for us that means value within the u. S. The quote, unquote lower return environment that people have been sounding the alarm on for the last however many years, we can all think of some of the names. People have come on the network and said its going to be a low return environment, a low return environment. Well, maybe the those are bond managers thats their job to say that lets not get it twisted if you run a bond fund, your job is to say lower return for equities, like part of what you sign up form i wouldnt get too confused about that stuff. Yeah, but there is some investing is all about the delta. Where theres a change at the margin and the change maybe for you for me thats all about the alpha. Thats very good. Its about recognizing the change, and what jim talked about early in the show was that expectations are for higher returns, but its also about relative returns where are you going to put your money, stocks versus bonds and i think it still favors risk assets we still favor Global Equities it, and if you look at Global Equities, not just u. S. Equities Global Equities. They are trading in line from a pe perspective with a longterm average, actual little slightly boston globe, and theres pockets of the u. S. Markets that are trading at discounts to the market and in other places Like Technology that have traded at significant premiums and traded at moderate premiums so theres places to invest i think the message is that selectivity matters if youre going to generate positive returns perfectively. Making absolute calls is the problem, and if youre looking its really about rotation think for a second the emerging markets, the msci. Its still at least 10 below its november 2007 high so to joshs point theres plenty room to run. Jim paulson says cyclicals may lose their moemgo in 2018. Maybe you should rotate out. Youre talking about rotation rotate out a bit on technology and teams in favor of energy and financials thats a diversification strategy so, yeah, that makes sense. I agree with that. That diversefies you, but going back to what john is talking about for a second, the ten yifrmt everybody is talking about the tenyear tenyear is down the yield itself is double. 2. 30. Down 5 wheres oat twoyear in the yield on the twoyear is actually up 35 for the year it came into the year at 1. 15, now 1. 62. Thats had investment skepticism that im talking about. The tenyear is reflective of some kind of fear in the institutional marketplace. I dont care who you talk to in the institutional community. They are saying fundamentals are great, however, were long in the tooth hand long in the psychled and, you know, valuations are a little stretched and something is going to happen. If you set up your portfolio already with a bias towards the u. S. And youre in areas Like Technology and youre in cyclical areas like financials, technology is it a set it and forget strategy now do you even need to think about switching it and if so, why . You know what goes on and this is not uteak to re tail or its everyone. Everyone invests in the rear view mirror, especial think time of years first of all, people have to be seen as having been prescient this year so youll see whats worked be added to or at least held on to and youll see what have been dogs hand let go at the end of the year. Some people call it window dressing youll definitely see some element of that, and then everyone likes to extrapolate the recent history as though its going to go on forever and trends can persist even look at private equity right now. People have lost their minds institutions are allocating as the way they will make their 8 bogey is by overweighting the private equity because thats going no give them 10 a year, and its been unbelievable returns there, but it doesnt mean that they will get that in the future. Josh is so right on this. And when we talk to our private equity clients they used to buy at eight times and now they are looking hat 11 times. Manned now theres the standard. And it keeps creeping higher and yet money continues to come into the space so the question i always like to ask is have we been knocked into a different atmosphere, a different paradigm for which that is susaccessible. The answer is yes as long as Everything Else in operation stays in place perfectively so youve got to watch the changes. Lets take this from 30,000 feet macro level down, to you know, more towards the the ground if you will and talk about specific sectors and look at what oil has done, for example, this week its up 5 over the past week. Jim paulson not the only one saying maybe you should take a look maybe this trend will be your friend for a while the xle and xlp both above their 200day moving averages. Place to be further into 2018 . I think what the benefit of oil recovering is it bleeds into other Asset Classes so you dont have to worry about high yield. I dont think theres a direct play on oil because its the Oil Futures Market that is rallying right now. Theres Energy Equities being lifted up along the way but xle doesnt have the yeartodate performance that crude oil futures or brent does. When you talk about mlps they continue to struggle and are still at the bottom and still havent seen the recovery. The recovery is more about other classes like high yield and like the emerging markets and the benefit of lifting oil provides them. But i think youre definitely going to see some support has Energy Prices recover because of the global durability of this recovery youre going to see the Energy Sector do bell, and while there might be a lag in the mlp sector, right, fundamentals have been really, really healthy and theres going to be a lag because thats due to the lack of sponsorship in that space. How could energy do bad in what has become everybodys favorite phrase, a synchronized recovery and part of that is the performance youre seeing right now and energy is what you want to see in confidence in the other places that were talking about. Spending is come in, global spending has come in in the Inventory Space and inventories interest declined so the fundamental backdrop is Getting Better. Wti hats done incredibly. And mlps are down. Im cautiously saying lets not make it an absolute call to oil and well gain exposure to Energy Equities. Im saying have Energy Equities but it also benefits multiple asset caps. Like take a look at mallinckrodt man this, stock is getting hammered whats going senator. Been a tough really tough day of earnings. The shares down a third of the total fall most of it on their product which is used for infant ill spasms and multiple sclerosis and other things the drug brought in 30 will million while the street was expecting 326 more over their explanation for the risk said though demand remains stolid, the Company Believes it is experiencing an issue that is affecting the brand and prescription industry where prescriptions are going unfilled the company is working to address the issue but does expect sales of the drug tock lower in the Fourth Quarter as well this has been a couldnt version drug, more than 35,000 for a file mill liter vial on the flip side generic prices are under pressure and under fire. Generic drug prices round pressure in the United States and we did see that impact the quarter. However, people were generally expecting this so the big miss was on athar. Whether its generic or name brand. The short sellers on m ha llinckrodt have absolutely nailed this story. This is now one. Worst stocks, got to be, of the year, is it not . I would have to check on it now. Certainly well given a 35 decline today. It was 68. Thats 20. Andrew lefts point is this is what happened when you lever up a Pharma Company and raise prices on drugs that was never sustainable. Valiant is an example of that. The music stops. We saw what happened there hand now this stock mallincrodt they had margin shrinkage on the markets and rather than charging more and getting more cash in their margins are getting crushed, down to 72. 4 or Something Like that. Pretty ugly over that at m ha llinckrodt and with the stock down 68 year to date hitting the exits is hard. Whats going on with valeant today . We talked about it with unusual activity and luckily enough valeant, the exact opposition. A rotation from m ha llinckrodt. Beat on top line, beat on bottom line and the calls we talked about last week, they were the this week expiration 1350 calls went from 22 sent to a buck call it five times your money on that trade and the stock certainly looks a lot better the ceo says the turnaround is under way. Got some positive press this week, too, and you still have a lot of shorts, unrepentant shorts they think its a doughnut. A comment on valeant . I did speak with joe poppa and one of the big things with the company is their debt and they have cleared the debt overhang until 2020 with no major obligations and getting out of sprout which they bought for 1 billion was the beginning of the end when they bought that a lot of people raised their eyebrows, first time they did lose value after an acquisition. They did get out of that that i had. Thanks. Much more ahead. One analyst big call on under armour saying the other shoe has dropped has the bottom really dropped or can they get back up again and after a run of seven monthly gains the s p keeps rising according to our data partner at kensho, the average return have 8. 3 and the index gaining ground 90 of the meti the Halftime Report with scott wapner and the traders is back in two minute. At fidelity, trades are now just 4. 95. We cut the price of trades to give investors even more value. And at 4. 95, you can trade with a clear advantage. Fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. And at 4. 95, you can trade with a clear advantage. Ronoh really . Gs going on at schwab. Thank you clients . Well jd power did just rank them highest in Investor Satisfaction with full Service Brokerage firms. Again. And online equity trades are only 4. 95. I mean you cant have low cost and be full service. Its impossible. Its like having your cake and eating it too. Ask your broker if they offer awardwinning full service and low costs. How am i going to explain this . If you dont like their answer, ask again at schwab. Schwab, a modern approach to wealth management. Were back on halftime. Under armour down nearly 60 this year alone but one analyst says further downside may be limited. Sam poser of susquehanna upgraded that stock and joins us from the New York Stock Exchange its our call of the day sam, welcome back. Thank you thanks for having me. You called a bottom in under armour well, i mean, our price target is still below where the stock is now we think theres, you know, some serious issues going on. However, you know, we think most of it is reflected in how the stock has acted of late and for the entire year now. Lets say youre calling close to a bottom. Youre looking for 11 bucks, right, the stock is 11, just shy of 12 bucks. The bottom line you is think most of the worst, if you will, is over. Well, i would say most of the worst of what we know right now is over. The question really is how much how many changes are they going to make at under armour to really fix everything, and what were still looking for them is to pull back on their moderate distribution so that they can recover and protect the brand or protect this house, as they like to say the way they need to, because what weve seen in the past when they started mens noncleated footwear and womens apparel, is when they made mistakes they went back to square one and started all over again. They did a very good job of planning their international business, but with this distribution into the moderate channel which is basically causing a mutiny from the better distribution, they arent showing the inclination yet to pull away from that which they still need to do to make it work however, i believe that theres lot of investors out there that want to see it work so if anything arguably less bad happens the stock probably goes up but theres certainly downside ring. I might say we rode a this upgrade note was basically was saying, look, its reflected it could get a little bit worse and probably bounced off that have. Hey, sam, its josh brown so if i read your note correctly, maybe the best thing for them to do would be to massively disappoint on revenue and just say were done with coles and all the with kohls and all the cheaper outlets and return it to a luxury brand and make it cool again and pull it out of Discount Stores and you have to trust us that thats going to set up the next three to five years of growth once the product is back to what it used to be. Is that what youre basically saying that they should do or they might do . Yeah, thats exact think. I dont know if they are going to do it but thats certainly what they should do because they didnt have a broad enough product assortment to handle segmenting the line into the moderate channel so you had a lot of duplicative inventory. Does kevin plank have enough support on the street to do something that bold and just say, look, guys, we are totally going back to where we were, and were going to lose a lot of revenue but it will be better for us in the long term . You think the street would allow that without just completely crushing the stock well, i think it could temporarily crush the stock, but i think that he would get support because i think in the long term its good for longterm health of the brand. Sam, lastly, does under armour ever get back to where it was . The company had greater aspirations than even where it was . It had much bigger numbers, nikelike numbers in its sight. Well, you have to remember its been driven through a pearl formance base while nike has a lifestyle and performance base, and, you know, really, you know, kevin is much more appears to be much more focused on performance than on lifestyle, and, you know, people always expect the product to perform, but how it looks and how you make it influential has to be organic, and you cant force it, and i dont know if thats a language that under armour fully understands as of yet. To really take it to the next step they have to both clean up that distribution and be able to develop that cool factor the cool factor that they had in the past developed out of out of performance, and now they have that perform sans sort of a given now and now it has to expand from there which is difficult with in moderate distribution i think it all comes down to the distribution issue. Gotcha. Sam, thanks for being here, appreciate it. Sam poser from susquehanna. Lets bring in Pete Najarian from minneapolis to help us trade this scott pete, what do you think . You see the note and hear the analysis and if not at the bottom is under armour getting close . Probably getting close, but the most telling thing is the fact that you look at the price target going from 15 down to 11. If you look back in time, scott, and you look at the analysts in general, nobody has gotten this right. Almost everybody had a buy when it was 40 with price targets above in the 50s and meanwhile it gets cut in half and suddenly at 21 everyone gets into the hold or sell category and here we are down in this nomansland of 12. The problem has been brand erosion, and they were and josh brown was talking about the fact that you see under armour everywhere in the discount chain. I mean, thats a problem as well, and i think that theres a lot to be changed that attack to go towards shoes thats been a failure and something that they have to suck up and figure out a better way or shoes that people are willing to pay up for when they are competing against nike and add das because thats where the competition really lies. Adidas has come in and taken market share in the u. S. , but if you look at the nike numbers, the reason i bought that stock a while ago, 9 higher on sales over in china. The em was up 5 so nike is growing in the international markets. Now, when you look at Something Like under armour the problem has been as it has slowed its okay when youve got growth, people are willing to look past that pe, but i saw that pe flash up in front of me that had a forward pe i thought it said 60, scott. Thats an incredible number so theres a lot of room still to pull back, and i would still love to see kevin plank come out and do something weve seen time and time again show us the money. Show us your commitment and show us a jamie dimon moment and show us a steve wynn moment and like what weve seen from some of the target executives as well where theres an aggressive buy of the insiders that tells us something. We have not seen that in under armour ever. We havent seen anybody really come up and stop and say, you know what, this is the bottom, and then they have been right not to do that, but until i see that, im not so sure weve hit the bottom. Okay. How much about here on the desk. The stock is down 60 or about. A terrible sector, a terrible sector its apparel is terrible. All of the studies show that younger generations are just buying less clothes. They just dont care as much, ha and that affects everybody and youre seeing amazon very quietly launch two of its own Sports Apparel brands on the site in its stores guess what that is going to head up against, under armour stuff, nike stuff, cheaper and ubiquitous im not saying it will take a huge chunk of market share but one more headwind that none of these companies can afford right now. So 12 is not staff what is the upside, i dont know its hard to get excited. The upside it comes in future earnings calls when you see some visibility that there is a turn, that kevin keeps talking about thats thats where so i agree with you there will will be at some point very easy comps but it doesnt make this a great category for investors. Coming up, john and pete is finding some unusual activity in big names today. Well see what the options are telling them about the stocks and the next move. First, take a look at the dow. Another record early stocks faded a bit down 44 right now. The Halftime Report returns right after this theres so many opinions out there, its hard to make sense of it all. Well, victor, do you have something for him . Check this out. Td ameritrade aggregates thousands of earnings estimates into a single data point. That way you can keep your eyes on the big picture. Huh. Feel better . Much better. Yeah, me too. Wow, you really did a number on this thing. Sorry about that. Thats alright. I got a box of em. Thousands of opinions. One estimate. The earnings tool from td ameritrade. Of emerging markets obsolete . Another record early driving specific sectors of out performance. Where a rising middle class powers a booming auto industry. A leap into the digital era draws youthful populations to mobile banking and ecommerce. Trade and travel surge between emerging markets. Everyday our 1,100 investment professionals another record early the Global Investment management businesses of prudential. Throughout my career, ive been fortunate enough to travel to many interesting places. Ive always wanted to create those experiences for others. With my advisors help along the way, its finally my turn to be the host. When you have the right financial advisor, life can be brilliant. Ameriprise your bbut as you get older,ing. It naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. Thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. The secret is an ingredient originally discovered. In jellyfish. In clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve shortterm memory. Prevagen. The name to remember. Hello, everyone. Im sue herera with your cnbc news update at this hour. President trump calling north korea a worldwide threat that requires worldwide action it came during a News Conference with the president of south korea in seoul north koreas sixth test of a Nuclear Device and its missile launches are a threat not only to the people of south korea but to the people all across our globe. We will together confront north koreas actions and prevent the north korean dictator from threatening millions of innocent lives. Defense secretary jim mattis wrapping up the first leg of his European Visit in finland. He attended a Multilateral Forum of 12 Northern Group countries that included denmark, finland, germany, poland and the United Kingdom they are all discussing security options. First Lady Melania Trump meeting his south korean counterpart in seoul mrs. Trump also took part in an event hosted by the u. S. Embassy promoting girls participation in sports. Youre up to date. Thats the news update this hour now over to phil lebeau in chicago with a story youll see first here on cnbc a big move for alphabets waymo, right, phil . Significant news when it comes to waymo, the Company Working on selfdriving cars the last eight years heres the latest news its now going to take that technology and bring it to the public in the form of a ride share service. These will be selfdriving waymo minivans no safety drivers. Nobody in the front seat for those who call in the waymo advance, it will start initially in the phoenix area and heres the ceo talking about whether or not the public is ready for this. A large percentage of the public is absolutely ready and would love to have access to this technology as soon as possible you can think first and perhaps most easily about those who have some sort of disability and cant drive. For them this would truly be a gift theres others in our Early Rider Program who told us, yeah, were ready. We have a lot of trust in these vehicles right now what is the test driver doing up front . So far waymo this is the next step already has a lot of partners including fiat and working with autonation and avis and lyft, working on Ridesharing Technology heres the ceo talking about waymos partner in the future. Weve got a lot of partners because we know it will take a lot of partners to bring this technology to the world and we like to think of us as waymo as not disrupters but enablers in technology in the mobility share. Shares of google, one things to keep in mind, guys. Waymo will start in phoenix but over time krafcik says youll see the selfdriving minivans throughout the u. S it will be interesting to see what people think about using these when it comes to ridesharing, not having anybody in the front seat. Guys, back for you. We will see phil, thank you very much for bring happening story to us. Just ahead on the Halftime Report, five more stock stories in the blitz including red robin, avis, weight watchers, disney and the travel space. A lot of stocks on the move. First though michelle with a look at whats coming up on power lunch in 20 minutes. Coming up on power, traders are looking for a way to boost volatility by launching futures trading in f. A. N. G. Stocks yes, theres now going to be a f. A. N. G. Futures contract, just like theres a contract for oil and copper is this the sign of a talk vanguard joins us. One guest says how he feels about it Online Travel stocks slammed on the back of earnings. The founder of priceline will join us with a look at whats changing in the industry plus, a mega media merger. How would a merged disney and fox compete in the age of netflix . Dont move power starts at the stop of the hour dont move, halftime is back after the break. What we do every night is like something out of a strange dream. Except that the next morning it all makes sense. To power global ecommerce Fedex Networks are massive, farreaching and, yes. A little magical. Fedex. Com slash dream were back time for the blitz red robin getting hammered today. Missed estimates and cut guidance pete, this one goes two. Its down 30 . Yeah, and spending down is scott, but i think you defined it not only did they miss on the earnings, but when you have weaker guidance on top of Everything Else, thats a terrible sign. Obviously they are getting beat by some of these other fast foods, and i dont mean the quick serves im talking about fast foods i think they are starting to eat the lunch of red robin thats the problem for that stock. I would not stop in there to try to buy it on this tip. Okay. Trip adviser and priceline on pace for their worst days in a year they gave cautious guide afternoons and expedia is down perhaps in sympathy. Doc in. Expedia is very mild. I think shareholders of either trip advisor or priceline would love to see a 2 decline like expedia has. These other stocks are down 12 for trip advisor and 20 for priceline. Its just an ugly day. Turnover is just basically people running for the exits right now, judge. Avis, a rough day there, too. Joey, down 17 almost. They missed estimates and they cut guidance, too. And you would think logically that thehour capes, the three hurricanes that we had would actually help. The ceo talking here about actually it hurt their business. Thats why they cut the guidance here car is down significantly and hertz is down even worse, two names that you have to take a dramatic wait and see approach going the other way, weight watchers, soaring today. Fouryear high for that stock. Josh brown why are you laughing, pete . Pete, why are you laughing . Im not only a shareholder. Listen, so so this is ill let you finish. So this is one of the biggest winners of the year, up 300 year to date and up 600 since the two years that oprah win fry got involved one of the things that goes on in wall street oprah owns 10 . When had a celebrity gets involved, and a company we roll our eyes, oh, this is the top. In the case of oprah, its different because shes not just a celebrity, shes a celebrity that can actually move the product, hand thats exactly whats happening, plus a rock star ceo the other thing you have going on here is 22 Short Interest which is never a great idea to bet against oprah and have that much of the flow short, so thats how you wind up with one of the biggest winners out there. Dont you have like a million followers . I mean, they could leverage your presence on social media. Im after oprah. Fair enough. The news first broken here on cnbc yesterday, disney approaching 21st century fox to buy its entertainment assets and both stocks on themove higher yet again. Pete on disney, favored this scoop yesterday. What do you think of in . I think it could be a pretty interesting deal everybody is looking for contempt and looking for the direct to consumer, and there obviously great programs were talking about in terms of the asset, fx, National Geographic and some of those, also sky. The International Side of it is a big portion as well. I think this could be something interesting. What i do like is that we i was a little bit critical of eager, but he has been kicking the tires around hes looked at twitter and looked at all kind of different deals. I like what were hearing about that i still think they missed the boat on netflix years ago but thats years ago now they have got to move hon. Direct to consumers is where they are moving and this seems like this would make a lot of sense to make a deal like this. One more. Up more we missed. How do we not do blue apron . We nailed it on this desk. A strong avoid this is the worst ipo of the year its got to be throw that out. Ive never seen anything like this where the Company Comes public and then within a week they are completely changing the way they do fulfillment, and now they are blaming the cost of shipping out of a new Fulfillment Center this should not have come public looks like an exit from vcs that wanted someone else to take this out of their hands this is just gross and i feel bad. Well come back and do unusual activity jon and pete watching the Options Market as always and today they see activity in two internet giants. Well find out who they are next on half. Were drowning in information. Where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters . The stakes are so high, your finances, your future. How do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. Morgan stanley. Something we all think about as we head into retirement. Its why Brighthouse Financial is committed to help protect what youve earned and ensure it lasts. Introducing shield annuities, a line of products that allow you to take advantage of growth opportunities. While maintaining a level of protection in down markets. So you can head into retirement with confidence. Talk with your advisor about shield annuities from Brighthouse Financial established by metlife. We are back looking for activity in the Options Market alba stock. 25,000 were bought yesterday around 45 cents. They came back to buy another 10,000 altaba. Stocks moving up a little bit higher these options are exploding. The volume is incredible i bought these yesterday i will be holding this probably three to four weeks at the most. They obviously expire in december thats some huge call buying i have a quick update as well. Last week, we talked about jd and some of the unusual options there. It hit multiple days in a row last week. Today, those have doubled for us taking that off, thats gone they went from the 50 cent level to the dollar. Wanted to give you a quick update pete, well see you tomorrow. Thanks, brother see ya what do you got, doc . I have an earnings palooza, judge. Take a look at this one. Snap, 15. 24 right now. They scramble in and buy options that dont expire until friday this one has earnings tonight. With snap, this is something or nothing. Binary bet they started buying them at 50 cents. They bought, as you can see, 16,000 of these calls, bang. Very quickly this morning from 50 cents all the way up to 80 cents. I bought them. That will be a something or nothing trade pretty fast. Im in those just for the night, judge. Quick one. Take a look at glw this one, you have a little more time corning, stocks just over 32 a share. They scrambled in and bought the at the money 32 calls. Take a look. December, 32 calls, again, about 7,000, almost 8,000 of these very quickly this one, i have a little more time ill be in them about two weeks. I hope you recognized the poetry in buying disappearing options in snap. They go away i hope you recognize how clever you are. Thank you, sir. Come on back this way the dollar hitting its hheigst level in two weeks were going to go to the futures level next for those trades. Traders theyre always looking for advantages. The smart ones look to fidelity to find them. We give you research and datavisualization tools to help identify potential opportunities. So, you can do it this way. Or get everything you need to help capture investment ideas and make smarter trading decisions with fidelity for just 4. 95 per online u. S. Equity trade. Fidelity. Open an account today. Now what . Well, after your first reaction, consider your choices. Go it alone, against the irs and its massive resources. Hire a law firm, where youre not a priority. Call your cpa, who can be required to testify against you. Or, call the tax law firm of moskowitz, llp. I went from being a cpa to a tax attorney because our clients needed more. Call us, and let us put our 30 years of tax experience to work for you. I am a First Responder tor and iemergencies 24 hours a day, everyday of the year. My children and my family are on my mind when im working all the time. My neighbors are here, my friends and family live here, so its important for me to respond as quickly as possible and get the power back on. Its an amazing feeling turning those lights back on. Be informed about outages in your area. Sign up for outage alerts at pge. Com outagealerts. Together, were building a better california. Welcome back i am Courtney Reagan the dollar Index Trading before its high level since late july scott, what is giving the greenback a boost today . I think it is largely geopolitical in the fact that Interest Rates are not helping that it also now looks like investors are a little bit more optimistic about what we might get as far as a tax plan. If you are an international investor, you are probably buying the dollar in preparation for investing here the dollar eclipsing 95 today. When we are talking about levels, which ones are you watching it was a little disheartening for me that it couldnt stay above 95 that long i think it is getting ready to break out of this consolidation thats been going on for almost two weeks. I was hoping that would be today. Im looking for a settlement above 9505 if we get that today, tomorrow, or the next day, thats a sign that the race is on and significantly higher dollars coming from that part of itis an overoptimistic view of europe over the last couple of weeks and this currency is coming back down to reality. Its a level to watch joining us today is paul hickey, cofounder of the b ecespoke Investment Group and Dennis Gartman the halftime guys have the final trade right after the break. This is my headquarters. This is where i trade and manage my portfolio. Since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. Okay. Im plugged into equities trade confirmed and i have Global Access 24 7. Meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. Visit learnfuturestoday. Com to see what adding futures can do for you. Win an uncertain world . K predictable income pgim sees alpha in real assets. Like agriculture to feed the world. And energy to fuel its growth. Real estate such as ecommerce warehouses. And private debt to finance transportation and infrastructure. Building blocks of strategies to pursue consistent returns over time from over 120 billion dollars in real assets. Partner with pgim. The Global Investment management businesses of prudential. 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Give us your final trade ezu, ishares, euro zone, down 1 plenty of momentum going into the end of the year. Doc etp, earnings after the bell. Do not buy the red robin gourmet. It has gone lower. Sticking with the earnings tonight. See you all tomorrow. Power lunch begins now here is whats on the menu facebook, amazon, netflix, alphabet, the big tech has been red hot for a long time. So, is something from the New York Stock Exchange signaling a top. If deal talks restart, how would disney fox compete in the age of n netflix . Will it be in the area of big tech move over uber and lyft. Could the driverless car be the future of driving. Im in the drivers seat