Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240622

Release of the Federal Reserve minutes. The dow is on track for its lowest close. Lets get more on the trading action. Bob is here on the floor as always. Ne energy stock s dragging us down we were weak right at the outset. You see around 10 30 we just dropped. Thats when the inventories came out. Barrels, import surge. Thats very bearish for prices. The bottom line is right. Exxon and chevron weighing on it. You have a lot of countries worried. You can buy russian as well. We saw dow stocks moving down but there was some Collateral Damage here. I pointed out the sxe which is the Semiconductor Sales in china. Theres Collateral Damage here. Look at the declines. Yes, you see walmart down. I put it in there because thats a 52week low. Finally i just want to note talk about a tough day for a new oil etf. Theres a new one that came out. Its a basket of all the new refining oil stocks. That just came out. Thats a basket of refiners like marathon and valero and well update that in the next few days as we get more details on it. But a tough day to start. Yeah. Absolutely. The apple is down as well. Lets go over to the nasdaq. Bertha coombs is there. Hi, bertha. We look at an etf scorecard. Theyre led south. The russell 2000 by a lot of small caps. Chips have also turned weaker. They were moderately positive earlier. A substantial beat there. An upgrade at suntrust. Adi benefiting from have its chips in apple watches. We have a number of new lows. Micr micron, kla 10. No huge news. Evercore, isi, google, guys, on its tenth anniversary, back to you. Bertha, thanks very much. Lets bring in Steve Liesman whos doing what else, looking at fed minutes in less than an hour. Less than. We have dweueled dead heads mak comments. Ooh. Its said the u. S. Inflation outlook provides no justification for policy tightening. The fomc should ease, not tighten, Monetary Policy. Part of whats going on is the debate. Do you watch the jobs and Growth Numbers that have been doing well . Folks, this is core numbers. Food and energy, its pretty consistent. The bottom line here, green, thats Commodity Prices and the middle one is the actual core, cpi. Unchanged. What do you watch for . First of all, how much minutes is there in china and whether inflation divides the committee. Thank you, steve, very much. Target, were watching target today as many of you are. Shares up about 4 earlier on the back of a very strong earnings beat in a tough retail environmental. The retail jiernlt also raising its outlook for the year, has the company turned the corner. Courtney reagan joins the chief financial officer. Take it away. Thank you very muff. Im joined by john mulligan, chief financial officer, however, incoming chief operating officer. I guess the first question is does your shift make you heir apparent . You were interim ceo for a while. I think, courtney, the first order of business is what ive gotten in front of me. Were excited about bringing the stores together, property team, supply chain and celebrating an operational improvement. Cutting boundaries across those so we can deliver on demand shopping for our guest. Im not wired about brian leaving any time soon. Hes doing a great job. Were glad hes here. Youre working without a chief merchant right now. So whats the status of targets search for that position . You know, weve undertaken an external and internal search. Theres a lot of interest for the jobs, sourcing them soon. In the interim the Merchandising Team along with brian are continuing to do a great job of delivering great products, graduate value. Well see it again in the Third Quarter and programs like plaid. We continue to move forward and look forward to the next quarter. Ecommerce growing at 30 which sounds good. Your goal for the year is 40 . Whats the plan to make up the different to get you to that goal . Yeah, we were really pleased with the growth. Its a little bit more than double. Particularly in electronics online, we were using that to bring the guests back to the stores. Weve cycled past that. Well continue to grow that business. We have conversion, things that will help conversion like we call it available to promise where well commit to a guest that if you order by a certain time well get it to you in two or three days so they know for sure youre going to get that product. They commit to the worst side that. Will be a big one of conversion. Well continue to integrate our Online Business with the stores and all of that will continue to dereich robust growth for our channel. I wanted to ask you about the pharmacy business and what youre doing there and how those changes are going to play into your broader strategy and make money for you. Yeah. Thats a great question. You know, we obviously announced earlier this summer a deal with cvs to sell our famcy business. We think its a win win for both. Theyll continue to provide that to our guests. In addition, theyll continue to drive traffic to our stores and we think thats incredibly important. So this is an opportunity for us to provide a Better Service to our guests and bring more of them in our stores so they can be invited to what we offer and its a lous us to focus on the signature category. The spring, home, babies, things we know we can do. Will they be branded cvs within the store or cvs at target or branded target . Theyll be branded vcs pharmacies and operate like cvs pharmacies and deliver that same great experience like everywhere else. Thank you, john mulligan, for joining us here. We really appreciate it. Well continue to follow your progress. Well see if he gets a mulligan as ceo. Had to. Sara, back over to you. One under pressure, the box. Down 23 in the past month and now box is making a new push to drive growth. Jon fortt joins us now. Jon . Thanks, sara. Ive got the ceo and cofounder of box with us. Youve about got some news. Youre opening up a 13,000squarefoot office here in new york. Its outside of your Head Quarters at nasdaq, build up. Commercial real estate in new york is expensive, aaron. Yes. Coming from San Francisco is not so true. Tell me how being here is going to help accelerate growth. Yeah. So box serves over 47,000 businesses around the world and through a range of industries and what weve seen is continued success in larger and larger franchises, particularly in industries. So given the son senn trags of businesses throughout the northeast we wanted to have a presence that we could go and make sure our solutions were being successfully implemented. Were excited to be here. Youre said to be cash positive next year. Yes. It was extreme strategy. Now youre telling us that more than 10 of your customers are paying customers some of what is it . Is it a sales force . Yes. So were certainly focused on our markets. With were building on our sales force and markets. We work with ibm and microsoft that help create more in our distribution. But really what youll start to see is continuing move up market to work with larger and larger customers like General Electric and eli lilly and in the government, the department of justice. As we continue to serve them, youll continue to see a pretty significant Revenue Growth rate and more improved efficiency. They told me, boy, drop box should have come out sooner with their strategy. Box is doing something right here. Whats your barrier to entry going see. Of course, microsoft and google have their own ambitions. So one of the benefits of fwhg this space for 10 1 2 years is we built out a very broad platform. All of the ways that you need to scale Information Management and storage in your company and thats very different than what a lot of other players in the market are focused on. Its way more about consumer about business and fike access and sharing. Were building a platform that helps hospitals be able to exchange medical information. It helps Financial Services share provider content. It helps Life Sciences firms. So its a very different type of technology and thus command as different type of value from customers that we serve. Aaron levie. Thank you. Back to you. A big triple dow. Lets take you over here to look at the lag ards today. No surprise with oil drifting below 21 a barrel. The losers, chevron, exxonmobil. Theyre sneaking into the bottom. Intel, walmart. The countdown to the feds. Minutes is on. Its just minutes away. It may be a market mover. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Dents ever g of the campus on day one. But youre armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2in1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so youre walking the halls with varsity level swagger. Thats what we call that new gear feeling. You left this on the bus. Get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. Office depot officemax. Gear up for school. Gear up for great. Everyone is looking for ways while to cut expenses. S unique, and thats where pg es Online Business Energy Checkup tool can really help. You can use it to track your Actual Energy use. Find rebates that make equipment upgrades more affordable. Even develop a Customized Energy plan for your company. Think of it as a way to take more control over your operating costs. And yet another Energy Saving opportunity from pg e. Find new ways to save energy and money with pg es Business Energy checkup. Welcome back to power lunch. As a result, energy is standing out as the worst performing sector in the s p 500 tracking for its worst day since january. This move puts 85 of stoxxs in the s p 500 energy index in bear market territory down by 20 or more. Again, by 20 or more. Leading the declines today are marathon oil, chesapeake. Theyre all down. Big down day, sara, of course, for oil. Back over to you. Really ugg. Thanks, dom. They say 48 of people who have tried apple music have stopped using it. This is based on a survey. Apple refuting the results saying that 79 of the people who signed up are continuing to use the music service. Weight watchers higher on an upgrade from Morgan Stanley to equal weight from underweight and cocacola taking a minority steak. This is cocacolas latest to diversify. Juice has been a growth area for beverages. Juice. Weve got big headlines to discuss. And who better to discuss them than one of my favorite guests bill george. Hes released a new book called discover your new north. You do vignettes or studies of people from swartz to Arianna Huffington and leaders. If theres a thread here, it is that you strongly believe that the best leaders are authentic, true to themselves, know their direction. What does it mean to be an authentic leader and can you learn it to your just have to be it . Thank you for asking. Im more excited about the discovery between north and any book ive ever written. Authenticity, since i wrote my first book 12 years ago has really become the Gold Standard for leaders. Its not just about iq and being smart. You have to connect the head and the smart and the heart being emotional. How do you talk about donald trump do. You want to have any millennials working for you . Youre not going to work for a phony. You anticipated my next question. Donald trump. Inauthentic. Phony. Why. Angry. Never speaks the truth. Saufts what he says and not the real guy. Can you but authentic and be a jerk . There are difficult people. Steve jobs no doubt was difficult. Steve jobs 2 knew how to bring about high iqs and he changed a lot. Lets talk about a leader whose style has been under the microchip scope this week and thats jeff bezos. Amazon and bezos dispute which indicates that the Corporate Culture is extremely demanding. So what i say. Demanding is one thing. Harsh is another. What do you think . Authentic leader or not . I think jeffs very authentic. Hes proved it, stayed with it. Yeah, its a tough culture. He sets very high standards. A lot of people feel that article didnt accurately reflect amazon. The crush today, are you creating sustainable culture and can you sustain innovation to ensure people stay with you. A lot of people will work for you for two or three years but can you keep them for 20 or 30 years because this is a great place to work. A lot of people at apple have stayed a long time and its a very difficult culture. Youre on the board at goldman sachs. Very demanding. Very demanding. A lot of demanding competitive places and often the cream does rise to the top. Lets talk about other things in the news. General electric as has other companies doing away with annual performance reviews. I believe medtronic did that. What do you think about that and how does that fit into the picture of discovering. I believe in doing it real time. What did you learn from this experience. I think the best feedback is 360 that comes from your subordinates and peers. Youre hearing from one person and its a judgment. At Harvard Business school, where you teach, i get the most. Thats where you learn the most. Yes. You learn from the critique. You dont learn by all the great things. You learn by what youre doing wrong and you improve. Thats how you become authentic. One is the idea that higher arctic cal leadership ak practiced by jack welch is probably out now, right . Exactly. Look at what jack has done. As i said to you earlier, not a lot of business guys are good writers. Youre a good writer. Ive enjoyed your book discover the real north. Sara. Weve got to bring him back and ask about hillary clinton. Ask him. Well bring him back. Lots of time with bill george. I know hes a contributor. Watch the markets here. Stocks taking a deep drop. Triple digits. Less than 40 minutes from now, how traders are taking positions ahead of this big market mover next. At ally bank no branches equals great rates. Its a fact. Kind of like mute buttons equal danger. That sound good . Not being on this phone call sounds good. Its not muted. Was that you jason . It was geoffrey it was jason. It couldve been brenda. Ive got a nice long life ahead. Big plans. So when i found out medicare doesnt pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. Then i got a Medicare Supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if youre eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80 of your part b medical expenses. The rest is up to you. 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There are two things going on. It was a onetwo punch. China set us off badly. Then the viewers can go and look at a minute by minutechart. Then at 10 30 yeah. We rallied back. Were battling some resistance around the 200day moving average which is 2078 to 2081. Third time we even hit it in the last few weeks. Th theyre waiting to see. It doesnt pay to double down. I think they may be a little hesitant. Importantly volume picking up during the selling. It certainly did. Were well on the verge of going to 18,000. Well see you later. Lets take a look at how gold prices are closing as we see gold higher today. Yep, higher by about 10. 50. Interestingly the dollar has weakened into the fed minutes after strengthening for the last few weeks. Silver, copper, palladium, platinum, all stronger today. You saw Rick Santelli. Lets get over to chicago the latest with the fed minutes. Rick. Sara, you know, the treasury market listened to even that art cashin said but that was all synthesized. Lets look. You can see. We see one group of traders here. High frequency momentum, guys. They all jumped on board but look what happened. They went the other way. You see the well after the number the yield started coming down. Now look at the s p futures chart. Thats probably why. Put them both together and they correlate nicely. You can see it looks like a lot of distance covered. Were consolidating. Back to you, tyler. Investors clearing up. What theyre thinking when it comes to liftoff time. How should you play it . Well tell you how stocks usually trade following the release of the fed minutes. The countdown to the fed minutes is on. 32. 31 to go. Were back in two on cnbc, first in business worldwide. Hello, everyone. Im sue herera with your cnbc news update. There was a threat back in april prompting the evacuation. He was arrested in lubbock, texas. Another sinkhole has opened up in the same location where man was swallowed up two years ago in his sleep. It was surrounded by a metal fencing on a vacant lot. This time no one was injured. There was a recall list issued louisiana last year for headlights that can assistant. It includes the 2000 a and scientists at Johns Hopkins are claiming a major breakthrough in als research and theyre crediting last years ice bucket challenges for their success. Those challenges raised public aware ps and more than 220 million to help fight lou geh g gehrigs disease. Its a good place to end the news update. Youre up to date. Lets go to ty. Back to you. Thats really, really terrific news. Isnt that great . I think theyre going to do a second round of the ice bucket challenge as well. You and i should do it. Youre on. We deal it. Im going on vacation, so well do it afterward. Absolutely, ty. See you then. The latest fed minute is going to be released in about 28 michbltss. D dom chu has been crunching the data. Lets look at the stocks, dollars, and kmoldties. If you bought the day before, that means yesterday and gone back, average gain five days later about half a percent. Its positive. Since yellen took over the fed in terrell part of 2014. Now moving on to the dollar, the dollar index you can see up by nearly again half a percent. Its up 92 of the time. This is just during the yellen chairman fed chair and the gold story, dollar, gold, they kind of relate to each other. Positive 25 of the time. Just one out of every four instances. Negative most of the time. Again, sara, interesting trades here at least in recent history during the yellen fed era. Back over to you, sara. Well see what happens later this afternoon, dom. Thanks. The dow is down 100 points almost a full percent as we await the fed minutes. The s p down right now less than a full percent. Still down 18. Nasdaq taking a hit heading for its worst month of the year. Joining us to discuss all of this, chief investment strategist at russell investment. Lets start with you on energy. I know its not your favorite sector but with 85 of Energy Companies and bear market territory can you at least be looking for bargains or is there more pain there . I think in the near term there might be a little more pain when you consider the new production thats going to be coming out of iran in the coming months and you look at the stores numbers that came out. But there are bargains to be had. Typically energy stock dividends have been historically resilient. You want to look at the price to book ratios and right now the relative price to book of the Energy Sector relative to the Broader Market is the lowest its been in many decades. There are deals to be had. The energy move. The question of the day can the Federal Reserve raise it with sell offmarkets in china and potentially Global Growth slowing . Well, we think they can. If you look at just the isolated yoous which is not something you want to do all the time but if you look at the components, its running very strong. You see wage structures. Theyre running out of the ability to build future disinflative margins on the market it could bounce back pretty quickly. Job growth is the key in their minds and they think it will move forward. So given your view, what does that mean for the stockmarket and what sectors do you want to be in given youre expecting a move here, erik. Well, even with the mookt we expect the u. S. Economy to continue to grow at kind of a 2. 5 to 3 rate. That would be good for stocks. I expect stocks to close higher at the end of the year. Consumers are employed and theyre buying houses or building homes and you need to finance those. Youre buying homes, you need to finance those. We also Like Health Care as kind of a hedge. Burns, you like banks as well. I cant tell you the number lately that like financials into higher Interest Rates and better use of economy. But interestingly you like the telecom. We havent heard that too much, why . Its been badly out of favor in the last several years. The year before that it was the worst performing sector. Were looking at the telecom sector. Theyve gotten in check because of that ujds performance. You still see some of the best dividend deals in the market and one of the biggest positives is Capital Spending as a proportion of revenues is going down across the sector which means more room for names like atat and verizon. Thank you for the tips. Be sure to go to powerlunnch. Cnbc. Com to see why erik says the fed will raise rates in september. That seems to be the prevailing feel down here. Every day thousands of flights take off every day. They have passengers in a choke hold. The faa estimates the cost of congestion and delays is 22 billion a year now and if things dont improve, it will escalate to 63 billion by 2024. Phil lebeau joins us from the Denver International airport with the answers. Phil. Reporter tyler, thank you very much. One reason were here in denver is because this expert has already instituted a lot of nextgen technologies. Youre probably saying to yourself, what is next jep and why do i care. You do care about it if you travel. Its a series of technologies. Theyre gpsbased. In four or five decades most of the routing of airplanes has been radarbased. Nextgen makes it gps based. Its not only in the air but at airports. It will hope friday improve congestion which lee to delays. The worst delays in the country, newark markets, laguardia, jfk. Critics say nextgen is going to be too clotly and it will be effective. The problem is were paying for it now. It just allows them to buy the wrong things faster. Reporter lets bring in michael huerta. He essentially runs the faa. He joins us exclusively from washington, d. C. You heard the criticism from michael boyd. What do you say to those who look at the nextgen system and say, you know what . Its too costly and not going to make a difference. I disagree. Weve completed the work for the most part and now were delivering benefits. Were very focused in the near term on performancebased navigation, which your setup piece showed there in denver, and the effect of that is it reduces track miles flown. Were doing a lot of work on multiple run way operations. Were doing a lot of work. But is its fish ency . Pardon me. They say i feel like the system is moving smoother now. What theyre going to see is less time on the ground. Theyre going to be quicker off the gate. Quick never the air for a smoother flight and an ontime arrival. Last week there was the glitch in washington, d. C. Which caused numerous headaches. Are you confident that we will not have that happen again as you roll out this technology across the country . Yeah. We have actually determined the root cause of last saturdays incident. What it was was a Software Patch to control things at the air Traffic Control center. Weve been working with our contractor lockheed martin. Were identifying the problem. Working on a patch. It wont happen again. Michael, one last question. A lot of people look at the delays in the cy. Theyll say the problem is they continue to pack the Airlines Even though youve hat to step in and say knock it off. Are we going to be able to avoid that in the future . Clearly errants represent a particular challenge were looking for but we have technology that enables us to move more efficiently on the ground. They look at the impact of their operation and were woking with airports to develop it to make sure traffic does not cross departing runways. Were very focused on how do we get the maximum efficiency from the infrastructure we have in place and we need to work collaboratively across the whole industry, all of us working together to make it happen. Michael huerta joining us exclusively from washington, d. C. Tyler, thats the latest on it for power lunch. Let me send it back to you. I know youve about got breaking news. Thank you very much. Rates and refies, two of the things driving the Housing Market. The latest fed minutes come out at the top of the hour. Will we get clues about whether a rate hike will happen in september . Take a look at the sectors right now. As sara mentioned a few minutes ago, all of them are in the red. Energy, the worth of a said lot. Up 3 . Youre watching cnbc, business worldwide. The one with new responsibilities . One thing cant tell you, but the right combination can. Universities are using ibm analytics to understand pressures in and out of the classroom some expect to cut dropout rates by twentyfive percent. Ibm analytics is working to make education smarter every day. No students ever been the king of the campus on day one. But youre armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2in1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so youre walking the halls with varsity level swagger. Thats what we call that new gear feeling. You left this on the bus. Get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. Office depot officemax. Gear up for school. Gear up for great. Welcome back to power lunch. Most said at the july meeting they had not been achieved in july but they said the conditions were approaching. Theres a little bit of back and forth. Tla said a prompt start to normalization was seen conveying confidence in the economy. A lot of talks about china with a spillover raising some concerns the Chinese Market decline was seen having little impact but some say a material slowdown in the chinese economy posed a risk to the u. S. Outlook. Also a little bit to talk about where the rusks seemed somewhat. It strengthened the dollar. A lot of talk about impact os testify rate ostown dollar and the fed stats revised down. Some participants said downward risk imposed a risk to inflation and the dollar being the sources of that. Most, however, saw the energy and the dollar effects as temporary. Theres a manufacturing slowdown also seen as temporary. And they set out proposals for winding it down. They say you could do it, characterize it qualitatively why you would set it down or give a date and time when you would raise them. There was more support for characterizing it. Finally some said an end to reinversement would be all at once. Tyler, my take on this overall, theyre scheduled but they keep saying again and again they have to cooperate. My first question is for ste steve, and that is this. Is it any more likely than it was an hour or go or not . I think it was more likely. Theyer were like saying were not ready now but we think were going to be ready soon. As you read the minutes its a qualitative assessment on my part with a bunch of holdouts in the room who say dont do it, dont do it. Dont do it. Theres one section where it feels like theyre making a race. Thats my qualitative assessment. With one eye, folks, we watch the Early Release of the fed minutes. We look at the market. Sarah and bob it looks like the market picked up a little bit in the past few minutet. Stooks were off the l. About 15, 16 as news came out. There you see thats about two points but, look, i dont think the conditions for rate rise nearing. Most have been in the one and done camp for it. We know two things. The majority want to raise rates and theyred about losing it. The easiest way, raise it once and then say theyre going to watch the market for some length of time. I think the Economic Conditions theyre watching china. They say any material growth could hurt the u. S. Remember, thats not the immediate part of their mandate. Maybe, steve, you can address this. I think theres too much emphasis on the china data including the retail Sales Numbers we saw recently. I neemt going to say whether theres too much one way or the other. They do talk about china. They say its something that first of all the stockmarket itself doesnt pose a risk. Theirre mindful of whats happening out there. I think for saras interest in currencies, theres a lot of talk in there about the issue of whether or not raising rates is going to have a negative effect or positive effect and have a negative effect on inflation. Thats something theyre very, very mindful of. Because theyre feeling it. Theyve knock thad onto is that going to hurt our manufacturing sector. Because were feeling the effects of a strong dollar. We mentioned stocks. Lets look at oil. Oil was lagging. Broke below 2 a barrel. Lets look at the chart. Heading toward breaking 40 potentially. 4078 is your price for crude oil. They dropped at 10. 30. Imported picked up. Theres the dollar index. Down half a percent. On the news of it they broke an embargo. You can see it on the euro if you pull it up. The euro pops on the move. Interesting take there because thats a devish reaction. So the market seems to be betting a little bit against e the. Lets get more on the bond market reaction. Rick santelli on the cme group tracking the trade. Rick . Its erupted. If you look at the dollar inconnection mark, i marked the market. Is anybody talking about the notion . These News Agencies have to get in line. We see a lot of this. Were down 20. Were down half a cent. Lets look at the fiveyear. It was around 154 when i was on not that long ago and its now trading down to 150 but as you look at 10s and 30s, a little volatility, but it was at 215. Its at 214. You could make a case against the long end of the market. Its now at 283. So lets summarize. Youre in a blindfolded room. You have no idea how a news agency. The last thing i could think of is theyre factors more of a tight new england right now. Thank you very much. Were connell to market action. They were released early. So weve the news out there for you. The bottom line is most fed officials in ju saw conditions for a rate rise no problems. It was already down triple digits. Its down 120. Oil is the big mover. Well talk about the reactions and what it all means here on power lunch. U. Okay. Our thinkorswim Trading Platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. Okay, cool. Hang on a second. You can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. Impressive. Whats up, tim . For all the confidence you need. Td ameritrade. You got this. Lots of dwra ma this afternoon. Lets give you a market check. The dow is down 127. Earlier today it was down as much as almost 230. S p 500 down 0. 7 . 14. The nasdaq down 30. The biggest reaction where the dollar was weaker all day was pulling back. Bottom line, the Federal Reserve has a meeting. Its going to be debating whether its going happen in september. Well have much more on power lunch straight ahead. Its a fact. Kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping. Well, folks, we expected to hand it over to Brian Sullivan straight up at 2 00 p. M. But a different News Organization broke the embargo. The minutes came out early, the markets reacting, oil tanking, exxon and chevron down heavy pulling the dow down with it. That will do it for the first hour of power. Brian take it away for hour two. Exciting moment. Wow. Oil is down. Maybe about to break 41 bucks. Idiot did a few minutes ago. Steve liesman, i guess you have more time. What is its saying . More time to be confused. They did say conditions were, high, quote, approaching. Some objected the inflation data was not progressing toward target. Some were saying it would be met shortly. There was an argument or prompt start to normalization seen conveying confidence in the economy and a lot of debate about china. Some said it raised concerns for the u. S. Economy. Others said it had little impact on chinese growth but there was pretty good agreement. There was tear economic slowdown. My favorite barometer was the twoyear note where the yield fell quite substantially from the 70 range down to 66. I think it was four basis points. Thats a big move for a shortterm note like that. People were thinking the tightening was coming up sooner. Looking at that twoyear yield is that 65 right now . That ice an interesting number. It would keep things on check by november and certainly december. They were saying the odds of a september rate hike are less than they were when they came out. They track this kind of stuff thank you to our data team. 36 are the odds that we get a september rate hike. 85 chance in december, but, guys, that is down from 100 before the minutes were released. So we definitely respect your view. One thing i will say is there was a lot of talk about the impact of the dollar to the extent that the fed was not ready to hike. Were going to find out. Were going to go to bob pisani in just a minute. We have seen since these july meetings happen, weve seen a deflationary spiral in commodity, at least in the short term. Every commodity down. Bob, theres a lot to talk about here, but you know what were going to talk about to lead the 2 00 show, energy. I tweeted out a picture. Every energy stock on my screen is down. Some by double digit percentages. Its ugly in energy right now. Chevron dragging the dow down. Were seeing new lows. Exxon not quite there. Marathon. Theyre all at new lows. The headline we saw of the 140 coming out. It did cause the s p to rise a little bit. It was interesting to see there was a dovish reaction to it. Again, debatable about why you can read a dovish comment into that. But if you look at the kbe, which is the bank index and steve mentioned the yields in the middle of the fed treasury, did move around a little bit. We saw banks move down. Often when you see yields move down, thats a negative for banks. We saw it move down as represented by the kbe. But hes right about the Energy Stocks. Xle is the one you want to watch. Thats the main etf for energy. Volumes have been very strong today. There have been five or six times this year where weve seen big climax accesses. They have failed. By my count this is the time this year that they have failed. Theres been notable volume today. You cannot say, oh, its day in august and theres no volume. Actually were getting very good volume. Volumes here are well above the normal level so, brian, this is not just a sleepy day in august that were seeing. Were definitely seeing some action. Im looking at the screens and if the guys of our team in the best of the business. One does wonder to your point about this capitulation. Conical phillips is down 4 . Youve got s corporation. We pointed out two weeks ago, bob, that the big nine western Oil Companies, six in america, three in western europe have lost 400 billion in market cap in four months. Thats now going to be a bigger nan number. You wonder and i apologize for the term, puking on the Oil Companies to a point where the sem errs are gone. Thats exactly what a capitulation day is. I dont know about marathon but theyre 50 abong normal and other niangs. Thats what a capitulation day is. I dont care what the price is. Get me out kind of thing. My point is we have seen this half a dozen times so far this year. Thats why im not coming out and saying this is what it is. I can say its a capitulation day but its not necessarily a bottom. Im pretty sure this is a shortterm bottom. If you put up the xle. I dont know if you put up a moment here to date. One in january, there was one in february, a couple in july and august where we saw very heavy vacuum days when it bottomed and then started coming back in the next few days, but ever single time theres the xle for the week but every single time attempting to buy on these. You cant see the volume days but there are six days where its been heavy, heavy bottoms. Yeah. Its not my job but i will say this, bob. Youre spot on about the volumes. A number of big names down. Linn energy down. Wpx down 9. 6 . Bob pisani, ire sure were going talk more about it. The dollar is twaulgly being impacted in maybe a different way. Sara eisen with more. That was where the biggest move was, that was dollar weakness. Not exactly what you would expect to see if you were preparing for minutes. Thats whats been drivinging the dollar up to multiyear drives. This is dollar against a basket of other currencies. It did move lower on that Early Release of the fed minutes. Theres the flip side of the chart. What does that signal . Something in there was telling them there was not an Interest Rate hike coming. Perhaps it was all the concerned about appreciation weighing on growth and the Chinese Markets or the fact their inflation target simply has not been met. Lots of hiation in there. Either way the currency market is giving a strong signal now that theyre not expecting an imminent rate hike and that seems like whats happens, in the rest of the markets. Its not a sharp crazy move, a 1 , 2 , 3 move which weve been accustomed to in currencies, but it is a pull back that, of course, the fed is watching very carefully as they said and every everyo everyone else as well. Meantime were keeping an eye on the market. We do see money flowing into utilities with the slu heading session highs. Lets kick it over to Rick Santelli whos in chicago with all the action. Rick. Melissa, i need Running Shoes today. Ill tell you what. One of the big topics these days is its not what they wanted to do but that theyre not communicating it properly. Case in point, fed fund futures. Lets start there. If it goes up. November are up 2 1 2 on the day. December is up 3. It isnt a messages problem. The words couldnt be made any clearer. Went about 110. 60 to 110. 90 on the euro. Now if you look at twos, fives, steve lee i is right. Awe you have to do is look at the unbelievable amount of steepening going on in the curve. Not from it going up but short rates going down. There is a certain market here. Thats a hard call in my opinion. Back to you. Let us bring in rich from pimco. Hes been sitting here patiently. Thank you very much. Steve liesman is still here as well. The large market is turning dovishly. Is that how you read it . You know, the thing with the fed minutes. Today really shows us that data dependence is not a Monetary Policy. My sense is that this is a committee that wants to hike. I havent seen every word in the minutes but certainly the fact that it tells me that the odds in september have gone up. Certainly they didnt take it off the table. Youd have to infer maybe the markets were looking for something in neon. Yes, were going to hike. We didnt get that. With this fed are we ever going to get anything in neon, richard . Maybe not. But i think its important. Its an interesting statement you made. Flush that out. The problem is you always get data. What you need to know is how will the fed take that data and translate into policy. What theyve said is were looking at a lot of data and were looking to hike. You correctly mentioned, brierngs this is one of the worlds leading monetary experts who writes the papers that are read by the guys in office right now and all around the world. Thank you, steven. I just want it made known. That intro was so long. But its important what richard things. To these kind of crazy things where indeed fed may be trying to send a signal where theyre going to hike in september and its on the table and the market goes the other way, thats a problem. As i have sort of half facetiously said on this program. If were going to be completely datadependent, get a robot and plug in the algorithm. Thats the prochblt if humans didnt matter. Make a program and when certain data points are hit, automatically rates move up or down. Im obviously being facetious, but you get the point. You can take data dependence to an extreme and i think perhaps the yellen fed is getting to that point. Thats the art that youre talking about. Ultimately were dealing with human beings. Were dealing with human beings that are not only trained economists in different ways, right. But there are also human beings with mortgages whoo hopefully go to the store, look at prices. Is there any read probably knowing some of these where they may be gathered what theyre thinking . I think we and others they cast a wide net but i think getting back to steves point, inflection points are always tricky. When you into the first hike or cut, thats when the premium is on is on messaging. Of course,ty datas very important. Data dependence is not enough. I need to in ter erupt you for a second. The dow was up for a minute. Maybe theyre coming to your side. Snono. I think thats the reaction. Theyre coming to the view that the fed rats that was not true. There was only a 45 chance. Its going to be september or after. Not any sooner. This is the same situation as an hour ago. No, its not. Its different, melissa. I dont know if these going to move off the 70 low. That was sort of a question to someone in some way. I guess i disagree with melissa in that i see a pretty substantial change in the outlook. I think what richard said was interesting that maybe they went into this with some sense of imminence either early in september or it was a done deal in september, i dont know. But what i would be interested in is, yes, it is douvish. Maybe its the concerns about the dollar or the oil. Back off of a hike . Yeah. It seems to me and i wanted to get your opinion, steve or rich. That it was an impact with energy. This sometime it seemed raich theyre a little more concerned. My read of the minutes is that they see these things as temporary. That could be a possibility. You remember at the time of the fed meeting it was about the equitiy selloff. Many took it as a soon that pramz their economy is weaker. Part of the challenge is looking at them today knowing what we know and given what the fed knew at the time. Theres a lot that has changed in a couple of weeks. Were going to walk you through this crazy market data myths lets take a look at that. Thank you very much for being fast. The nadial and u. S. Dollar trade as well. They vn been obliterated from the strong perspective. A lot of the commodities matter. Kind of a crazy commodity day. Someone hit the power button early. Dont you hit the button. Well be right back. [ piercing sound ] daddy lets play sorry kids. Feeling dead on your feet . Ive been on my feet all day. Dr. Scholls massaging gel insoles have a unique gel wave design for outrageous comfort that helps you feel more energized. Dr. Scholls. Feel the energy im a senior Field Technician for pg e here in san jose. Pg e is using new technology to improve our system, replacing pipelines throughout the city of san jose, to provide safe and reliable services. Raising a family here in the city of san jose has been a wonderful experience. My oldest son now works for pg e. When i do get a chance, an opportunity to work with him, its always a pleasure. I love my job and i care about the work i do. I know how hard our crews work for our customers. I want them to know that they do have a safe and reliable system. Together, were building a better california. Welcome back to power lunch, following the release of fomc minutes, were seeing a slight reversal on the day. We took a look at the peak positive territory. Take a look at the sectors all turning green so far on the day. Interesting, of course, melissa, that on this particular move higher its the Interest Rate sensitive ones helping to lead the way higher. Of course, Interest Rates broadly low owner the day. Back over to you. Thank you, dom. J. P. Kelly. Guys, good to see you. Lindsey, i want to start off with you. We were having a bit of a debate before and with everybody in the world of whether this changes the Interest Rates. Whats your take . Fed officials acknowledging that although the economy has taken steps in the right direction the Current Conditions do not yet justify a rate increase. This reinforces the status quo is not good enough, that the fed will remain on the sideline waiting for further improvement. You couple that and it reinforces our long held forecast that the fed will wait beyond that september meeting, beyond that december meeting and really make a liftoff of a 2016 event. Wow. Weve maintain thad call for quite some time and i think these minutes reinforce that notion. David, do you agree with lindsey on the 2016 take . And im curious if those impacts are temporary as the fed says right now. First of all i dont agree with 2016 personally i think they will go. Its not a strong economy. You know, just because you miss out in the summer doesnt mean you have to miss out. Theyve got to raise rate as bit so theyve got ammunition when they get hit by the next recession. Since the minutes since that meeting, weve had good job numbers, very good retail numbers and good housing numbers and i think, you know, wed like to see more wage gains but i think the fed is going to move in september but i certainly think they will move before 2016. Theyll either move in september or december because they want to communicate very clearly what theyre doing. I think they really need to get going. Thats what i mean my big problem is so what from a u. S. Economic perspective. Low Commodity Prices are generally a positive for the u. S. Economy. So, you know, when i think about labor mar connect dynamics which is probably the most important thing for the Federal Reserve. If the labor market is still tightening, that to me is a key criteria. Which it is, lindsey. You know, we always focus on inflation with the fed. You mentioned wages earlier. The data came out. Up 2. 2 . Nothing to write home about but not terrible. 5. 2 open jobs. Its 2. 6 . Dont you feel like the fed is waiting for some kind of perfection that we will never see. Weve also seen 58 consecutive months of positive job creation. Weve seen 11 million jobs created since the end of the recession, but thats still not adequate to an soush the lingering move. It doesnt count the millions of americans that are only employed part time. That doesnt include the millions who have dropped out looking for employment. So from the feds perspective, its not just tell the half glass full story. Theyre looking at the component of wage stories and wages remain stagnant as they have since the end of the recession and if the labor market was, narkin fact, absorbing that, it would be 3 or 4 . I think thats a misread. A lot of what is happening is Older Workers are being replaced by younger workers because theyre retiring. Thats pressing on lower inflation rate. I do except the wage growth is low but i dont think theres much slack. I think the Federal Reserve theres not much slack in the labor market and certainly not enough to justify what is still the eastiest Monetary Policy in the century. I think they have acknowledging it but looking at those minutes the fed says right now we cant justify a rate increase because there still hasnt been enough improvement. September is four weeks away and theres not going to be enough time for improvement to raise rates near term. It will be a post thanksgiving gift or early christmas gift. Well have you both back on soon. Thank you, both. Thank you. Right now the dow, s p, and nasdaq have made a come back. Folks, we were down triple digits in a deep way and we came back in a matter of about 30 minutes time after the fed minutes. Oil was below 41 bucks, its 41. 30 right now. Much more market coverage on a crazy fed day. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide for a darn good reason. Were back after this. Technology empowers us to achieve more. It pushes us to go further. Special olympics has almost five million athletes in 170 countries. The microsoft cloud allows us to immediately be able to access information, wherever we are. Information for an athletes medical care, or information to track their personal best. With microsoft cloud, we save millions of man hours, and thats time that we can invest in our athletes and changing the world. If an electric toothbrush was going to clean better than a manual. He said sure. But dont get just any one. Get one inspired by dentists. With a round brush head. Go pro with oralb. Oralbs rounded brush head cups your teeth to break up plaque, and rotates to sweep it away. And oralb delivers a clinically proven superior clean vs. Sonicare diamond clean. My mouth feels super clean. Oralb. Know youre getting a superior clean. Im never going back to a manual brush. Balance transferot to othats my game bank you never heard of, thats my name haa thank you. Uh, next. Watch me make your Interest Rate. Disappear. Theres gotta be a better way to find the right card. Whatever kind youre searching for, creditcards. Com lets you compare hundreds of cards to find the one thats right for you. Just search, compare, and apply at creditcards. Com. A one, a two, a three percent cash back business in slowdown in china has been nearly the perfect storm for the canadian company. Diedre with more. Its rebounding. Oil continues to move lower. The loony is lower and if you take a look at the ewc, this is an ewt. Its hitting 52week lows. Thats just today. Over the last well canadas economy has been in a world of pain. Thats because its very resourcedependent. Because of that were one month away from measuring a possible technical recession even though we arent technically there consumers are already feeling the pinch. Have a listen. This year i would sabow news go down, salaries almost the same the prices of food and everything are going up. I know my daughters working in restaurants are seeing less coming in. I cut back on a lot of luxury items that i thought were necessary. Now i have to rethink everything i purchase and find ways to cut back. If consumers and businesses are already scaling back, analysts say this could strangle growth in canada for years to come. This is a dangerous thing. Of course, the biggest thing is being felt in the oil fields. Alberta is taking a heavy, heavy towel. The canadian benchmark dropped below 30 Canadian Dollars earlier this week. Thats the Biggest Discount to the american, the u. S. Benchmark in about a year and it ooh is the lowest level since 2008. Thats heaping more pain onto the canadian economy. But the pain extends past the oil industry and past the Energy Industry as wilt yochl u see it with the Housing Market and other resources slumping. So Household Debt also at a report high and people here are watching that next print. Its out september 1st to see if were in a recession and folks here are talking about whether there could be another Interest Rate cut. Pack over to you. Thank you very much. Check this out. Its down nearly 20 . Of the 247 or so stocks in that composite, only 37 are higher this year and a staggering 26 of those are down more than 70 just this year. Wow. All right. Big move to down side oil. Lets go down to jackie deangelis. Jackie. Good afternoon to you. We closed at 4 a bare. As you mentioned intraday falling under 41. We havent seen those levels since 2009. Whatsing are interesting here is the products are getting slammed today. This is after we got a build in crude oil inventories. The reason the theyre getting slammed is anticipation of falling off in the united states. You expect that lead to more crude inventory building. If we continue to see it rise were going to continue to have a problem with a supply glut on our hands. Meantime we have a little bit of a weaker dollar right now. Testing new lows today and what weve seen in terms of patterns is when we test them, then we break them. Back to you. Jackie deangelis, thank you. Melissa, for much of the day, all ten were lower and thats changed dramatically. Energy remains by far the worst performing sector of the sector. Its well off its worst level but down by 2 so far so keep an eye on the Energy Stocks still not participating in this rally. More on the markets coming back in two minutes. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Pubut to get from theand yoold way to the new,d. Youll need the right it infrastructure. From a partner who knows how to make your enterprise more agile, borderless and secure. Hp helps business move on all the possibilities of today. And stay ready for everything that is still to come. Hello, everyone. Im sue herera. Here is your cnbc news update this hour. A secret agreement will allow iran to use its own experts to inspect a site allegedly developed to develop nuclear arms. Critics have claimed its built on trust of the iranians, a claim the Obama Administration has denied. Authorities say 27 bodies have been recovered from a site where a passenger plane crashed over the weekend. All 54 were killed when the plane slammed into a mountain in bad weather. Jared fogle left the court after pleading guilty. He will pay 1. 4 million to 14 minor victims each receive 100,000. He will register as a sex offender. His prison sentence will be between 5 1 2 to 12 years. His wife is seek divorce. The couple have two children. They will not rehear the appeal of former illinois governor Rod Blagojevich on his corruption conviction. His only option is an appeal to the u. S. Supreme court. Hes serve 14gyear prison sentence. That is the cnbc news update this hour. Back to you. Time now for street talk. Our daily dive. You need to hear about it. You ready to gorks melissa . Ready. First up, two stocks and one call. Conway, the margins there should improve because the ltl has fewer than the truck load segment which apparently has driv driver shortages. Also its deserves because of best in class. 32 on knight, 34 on conway. Im watching smuckers. Smuckers, we should know, suffered two years of retail sales. Credit suisse thinks its a fallen star, analysts words. The stock is trading well below its normal evaluation so they dont have to do anything heroic to make it work. Intuit, deutsche bank, buying interest up from a hold. Target boosted. The analysts think that intuit can overachieve the 2 million fiscal market in 2017. They also like their early interestet. By the way, intuits earnings come tomorrow. Habit restaurant gets an upgrade. The stock is up 5 right now. The analysts had a mutual raining but the stock has pulled back down about 30 . The risk here is a pullback in the entire groups evaluation. Final the under the radar name, also the last one we do, d d dermira, the ticker derm, coming out. They understood serve. That wraps up street talk for fed wednesday. Lets go trading nation. We dont care about the next one. We care about the last one. We vlaarry and todd. Larry, on a day like today i have no idea what to ask so Say Something as a matter of fact. Its sim pll mathematics. 17 trillion of global gdp and 18 trillion of u. S. Gdp. Credit the fall on emerging markets in asia. Credit the fault protection on large banks in asia. So thes credit risk, chinese slowdown is impacting many markets around the world and that is presented a risk to the u. S. And its presenting a risk to the feds september 8 hike. There you. That was smart talk. Gordon from a chart perspective, chart, do they look like buyers have been coming in . Weve been weak. Ill leave the smart comments to you and larry. Im going to speak logically. You have china markets breaking down. Emerging markets breaking down. The s p continues to nearly rangebound. We have not seen this market in some time. This market showing an incredible amount of resilience. Post fed minutes you had the positive come back so i think the upside is in play ads we head to the end of the year. We havent broken down. Its really kind of suggesting that that logical approach will emerge. Todd and larry, thanks very much. By the way, if you want to simi do two separate ones go there. Not while youre driving throw. 40 target. Not as much upside as i had said so my apologies for that. There you go. Youve got utilities, telecom discretionaries up. Everything else, staples, materials, energy, six maids amilking all down. Kind of a wacky day when the fed minutes were released early. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. And now the latest from tradingnation. Cnbc. Com and a word from our sponsor. If youre sitting on the sideline its difficult to do but its important to not overtrade. In times of high volatility you may want to consider traiting less or reducing the sides of your traz and when things get really crazy, sometimes the best trade to make is no trade at all. If you cant stand the heat, get off the test track. Get the mercedesbenz youve been burning for at the summer event, going on now at your authorized mercedesbenz dealer. But hurry, offers end august 31st. Share your summer moments in your mercedesbenz with us. Lets check in with body pisani. What stands out to me is its still a little higher which means theyre still in the bond proxy stocks and maybe a fed rate hike is farther off. Middle of the yields drop there. Thats generally a little bit better not great for some of the bank names but can be pretty good for some of the other names. Not a dull day in august. I want to point out whats going on in the volumes. We rallied about 14 points when that embargo was broken early on the Federal Reserve on the fomc minutes. The bottom line, very heavy volume. Normally does 105 million shares. Were way past that. Its not a dull day by any means. There are very clear signs were in heavy overbought conditions and i just want to point out here, theres the semiconductor one. A lot more to talk about but ive got go go back to you. We have a breaking news alert right now on the get from Steve Liesman. Steve. Thanks very much. Bloomberg out with a statement acknowledging it was the source of the relief. Theyre scheduled to come out at 2 00. Instead they came out in that half hour between 1 30 and 2 00 bloomberg saying in the process of preparing bargained material, we inadvertently sent a headline. No word on how this happened. They have checks and balances to make sure it doesnt. But it does. Taking credit. Credit or blame, brian. Kritd or blame. I was trying to be polite. Listen, we receive this happen with many News Organizations, but, you know, ultimately theres somebody putting something somewhere or a button is hit or a computer is fired early. Weve seen, have we not, the Federal Reserve release it on its own. Yeah. And one hopes that News Organizations are very, very careful with this material. I know we all. All you can say is its a human process and sometimes it breaks down. Thats why you have a suitcase chained to your wrist. If anybody could have been here, 1 30 when that broke, you never saw more makeup put on and ties put on more awkwau awkward crude oil down another half a percent. Below 41 a barrel at one point and of all the cities, perhaps none have been hit harder than, yeah, you guessed it, houston. That does not scare our next guest. Theyre still betting big. Well tell you how and where. Stick around. All right. Now for something that you were only going to see in this hour. Our power city index. These are 38 city and metro area stocks that we built exclusively for you, america, and the world, and rather than focusing on a specific city today, we thought wed show you some of the best and the worst of our 38 over the past three months. Because it is a tale of two different stock markets. The best performing cities for the stock market over the past three months are, raleigh, north carolina, up an average of 8. 5 . Youve got seattle up 8. 1 , and los angeles doing well. Up 5. 3 over the past 90 days. But now we turn to the worst and the story here, of course, energy. Bier the way, phoenix, down 14. 1 in large part because the weakness of Freeport Mcmoran and others, youve got others down 13. 5 . And energy bringing down houston over 90 days. Houston pci has lost 10. 5 . By the way, dallas didnt make the top three worst, but it was the fourth worst performer down 8. 5 over the past three months, maybe some texassized trouble. Austin, houston, and dallas pcis not doing well. That drop in the houston stock market as of late is not scaring your next guest. He laughs or at least builds in the face of danger. Recently closing on a nearly 6,000squarefoot lot on a very prime piece of property located in the exclusive river oaks region of the houston neighborhood. An expected cost of 1 million. Bringing the man in behind the project. Richard, when i read that story this morning, thank you for coming on, i said, are these guys nuts . Isnt there an oil crisis . Youre not crazy, are you . No, brian, i dont think so. But good afternoon and thank you for having me. I appreciate it. Why now . Given everything thats going on. Are you feeling the oil pain at all . Well, anyone in houston who says theyre not feeling the oil pain is lying. We all do feel it here. But one thing about houston compared to the 1980s crash that we experienced was our economy is vastly diversified from where it was in the 1980s. Back then, energy was 80 of our total economy, now its just over 40 . Its still a large part of our economy. But the city of houston has grown so much, its grown past energy as the soul driver of our local economy. So would you have done this in the 1980s . In the 1980s, i was 5. So, no. If you were your current age then, given the economy, like you talked about it back then . No, i probably would not. Given the economy back then, i was not in texas in the 80s, so i did not live through it. But back then, i would not be for those who dont know, its fair to call it the Beverly Hills of houston, if you will. Big mansions right downtown, kind of a beautiful area. That is very well said. Thank you very much. I just drive through. Ive never been hanging out there. What have you heard from potential buyers, richard . Have they said were in . Do you have people lined up . We like to do it, were worried about whats going on. Well, weve had a little bit of both. We have had buyers approach our other projects, as well, that have come in very excited and then after a while express some he h hesitant we sell a lot of homes to the medical community, as well. So far i would say honestly, reaction has been pretty good to the project. We had an article in the Business Journal yesterday, weve gotten phone calls from potential buyers, banks, as well, that want to work with us. And so far, id say interest has been very high given the local economy. All right. Well, certainly good luck, richard, we appreciate you coming on. Do us a favor, when things start to move, reach out to us, well get you back on and talk about how houston is doing. Thanks so much. Thanks very much. Melissa. Well, the dow is wiping out 200point losses after the fed minutes released. Back to triple digit losses once again on the dow, were down by about. 75 . Even with markets off the session lows, pain in the oil sector, and thats, of course, thanks to the drought in crude oil. One of the executives joins us on fast money at 5 00. There might be an opportunity, brian, in some of these stocks. Opportunity, he said. Melissa, thank you very much. Well, the dow is back down 158 points. Good grief. What the heck is going on . Dan heckman with u. S. Bank Wealth Management and mark joining us now. Dan, first to you, down 200, up briefly, back down 155. What the heck is happening . Well, i think, brian, whats going on is that although the comments out of the fed were dovish, it still creates a level of uncertainty for the market. And it will that gets resolved. We think the market has a tough time moving up. And so, were not surprised by todays volatility. We think it will continue until we get into september, and it is our hope and belief that the fed would be best off going ahead and raising 25 basis points. I guess, mark, what im confused about is that maybe its not september, maybe its december, maybe its january. We know the fed is going to raise rates at some point. So where is the confusion . Well, i think the confusion lies not so much in what the fed is doing, but something on the other side of the world, brian. And to us, is the fact that chinas slowing economy is having blowback ramifications to the emerging market complex, which feeds on chinas growth rate to facilitate growth in their respective countries. And i think what were seeing here is concerns about Global Deflation and currency wars among many emerging Market Countries that could lead to something sinister that is going to come from, basically, the emerging market complex that represents 50 of Global Economic activity. All right. So dan, then, where do we invest in an environment such as the one you laid out, quickly, please. Well, we think you should be investing in highquality bonds, such as municipals, Investment Grade corporates, spreads there have widened out dramatically. Its still kind of a riskoff type trade environment. We agree with the other guests. We think if the fed doesnt raise rates in september, it actually sends a negative signal that, perhaps, they know something about the economy being weaker than okay. What it really is. They spook us by inaction. Weve got to leave it there, the shows over. Thank you very much. Thank you, brian. Melissas out there, thank you. That does it for us. Thanks for watching. I think closing bell starts now. There you go. Welcome to the closing bell. What a day its been in markets, everybody. Kelly evans a the the new york stock exchange. I dont even have a quarter in my pocket. Im bill griffith. We were trying to decide. Joking on twitter, do we lead with the decline in oil or the fed minutes today . Theyve had big impact. Both of them, on the markets today. The dow was down 229 points, then charged back after the fed minutes came back out. And now were lower again, down 165 points at this hour. You did have those leaked fomc