Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240622

Expected to hold steady at 5. 3 marking a seven year low. Again the report will be released at 8 30 a. M. Eastern time and its one that the fed is watching very closely. The last jobs report before they try to decide if theyre going to raise rates in september. Welcome back. Thank you. We talked a lot about those rates. Weve seen lockhart say theyre going to do it. We had powell on who said still data dependent but a lot of people swinging toward september. Yeah, you called this awhile ago. Well, Wishful Thinking that they quarter point, you know . You can do it. You can do it. Its not going to nothing is going to happen. You can do a quarter point. Im going to talk about the markets now because were going to focus on the jobs report and i decided that im kind of glad that were cnbc and Business News. Im still thinking about what i saw last night, what i witnessed and i want to talk about it but im glad we can talk about real other stuff, you know what i mean . It was fiery. It was rowdy. It was it was great for democracy on one hand and for the whole process but then again it was the knife fight, food fight that democrats wanted. On the one hand i was saying wow theres real talent up there and on the other hand i was saying this is like the star wars scene in the restaurant. What is it the cafe. The bar. Yeah, all the freaks come in. So i was alternating between wow theres some real talent and what am i watching here. Yeah, that. That music. But im glad. Lets talk about the dow which are numbers and things that wrote need someones twitter opinion to talk about just facts here because everyone in this age has an opinion and you know what they say, when everyone has an opinion, no one has an opinion or no one matters. Its been a rough ride for the dow which is currently in a six session losing streak and the index is at its lowest level in six months. Lets check out the futures at this hour. 16 points is not bad. Its been tough. You didnt miss anything on the upside becky. You didnt miss apple. Theyre talking about the Media Company lost 35 billion combined. Apple lost like 100 billion from its highs. But it stabilize a little bit in recent sessions. Well see whether this is, you know, another launching point where it goes higher or whether it does, you know, apple go down to a 104 level. There sappel as you can see it. Yesterday got as low as 114. Heres the european markets except for greece. All red this morning and asia i saw that now i look at shanghai, its up about 2 . Two and a quarter percent. We havent, you know, when its down big we talk about china. When its not we have other things we talk about. We go back to the fed. I dont know what causes the market to finally decide it. Thats pretty interesting. I dont know what it says. I dont know whether its the demand side or the supply side. If its the supply side i can explain it. If its a demand side it makes you nervous. The bigger issue is that it may be the supply side and it may be the supply side change forever. Right. In terms of being much more efficient and much more able to get things out of the ground and a constant headwind. Presales are plunging. Not because theyre ugly either. I saw a Station Wagon that didnt look quite as bad but tesla and people dont buy teslas to save money on gas. They buy them because they like them but even tesla we saw what happened yesterday. Tesla had a problem the ten year doesnt know whether to go up and down. If i knew what the fed was going to do i couldnt tell you whether it goes up or down based on that. If they start tightening. You think it goes down. Possibly. Do you . Because that means the economy could slow and europe is still way below us. The most watching the debate and this is how ill tie it, is backdrop is that we had six years of zero Interest Rates and we obstetrical still have a fed that isnt sure the economy is above stall speed. How is this so anemic that we dont know if we can stand a quarter point increase . It was a big part of the debate. It was part of what was talking about on stage last night but its part of the cnbc debate. And the high bar was set by ive never seen him i dont usually agree with a lot of stuff he says put he gave major kudos to the moderators at fox news. He said it was words he never thought he would rise. Its the grilling that you want. If you have questions about these candidates we want to know where they stand on things. The only thing disappointing is i dont think theres a single Mainstream Media entity that will give the same grilling to Hillary Clinton and bernie sanders. Well see. Fox isnt allowed to do them so fox wont be there and theres nobody on the other side. I think the stage was set last night and if you dont get that kind of an inquiz situation, i think voters will be left wondering. Maybe it will be george grilling hilary. In case you missed it last night what we have been talking about all morning already. The gop kicking off one of many debates. Ten candidates kicking off the main stage of the event. John harwood joins us now from cleveland with the highlights and there were plenty of them john. There were plenty becky and youre right the fox news moderators did a good job of running a lively debate. They challenged the candidates. As a matter of fact from the very getgo of this debate, donald trump got challenged as to whether he would even stay in the Republican Party and guess what, donald trump said no, he wouldnt promise that. I think we got that clip teed up. Lets play it. Raise your hand now. Raise your hand now if you wont make that pledge tonight. Mr. Trump . So, you saw the cat calls from the audience when donald trump said that. Ive never seen that, somebody standing up before an audience of his own party and saying hey i may leave if i dont win this race. Thats donald trump and he was donald trump all night. You had some candidates, rand paul right after that moment went after him aggressive and said thats what is wrong. This is a guy hedging his bets. He tries to buy politicians. Trump shrugged him off. Jeb bush took a more polite tone and said his rhetoric was devicive and he said jeb bush is a gentleman. But we dont have time to mess around with tone we have to go and on the challenges with the economy donald trump was saying we dont need all of these politicians surrounding me on this stage. We need somebody with my characteristics. Play that bite about donald trump and the debt. By the way, this country right now owes 19 trillion and they need somebody like me to straighten out that mess. So that is the core of Donald Trumps message. You have somebody like me. He was the push off point in the afternoon debate as well when Carly Fiorina who won that by a long shot over the six other candidates on the race used her moment to go right after trump and the phone call that he got from bill clinton that was in the news yesterday. Well, i dont know, i didnt get a phone call from bill clinton before i jumped in the race. Did any of you get a phone call from bill clinton . I didnt. And that was Carly Fiorina standing out again with donald trump as the pivot point. He was all night. You had other candidates, scott walker, marco rubio that used their time to focus on their own introduction to the large primetime audience with other candidates on stage with them. John kasich used his time very effectively. The ohio state governor. He was vigorous and made a strong impression. I dont know how far he will go in this race but he was off to a good start last night guys. I didnt expect jeb bush to you know they say trump was trump. Jeb bush was just jeb bush. When he says you might have to lose the primary to win that might be problematic because a lot of the tough was very right wing. You were not impressed with jeb . I was impressed you were . I dont expect him to say jump up and down and look at me and i thought he was substantive and christie was the other guy that i liked. Im seeing that supposedly ted cruz won or all of these things and i didnt see it. Even kasich. I thought carly was amazing. She did a Chris Matthews interview where finally at the end he goes i did not. Check that out because at the end he said wow i see why you did so well. Shes a very good communiq communicator. Very good. Im trying to figure out the political calculus of Chuck Schumer announcing that on debate night. First i thought maybe he wanted it to get lost in all the coverage of the debate. Maybe he wanted it picked up. But then on the other hand here is a night where every single republican is just hammering that iran deal and then the leading democrat in the senate comes out against it. That looked almost like a slap in the face to the administration. Why did he decide yesterday to do it . Why did he pick that day . Well, first of all, just on the point, i was tweeting during the debate last night and the tweet that got the most reaction of anything that i sent out was hey by the way Chuck Schumer Just Announced hes coming out against the iran deal and democrats were not happy with that at all. According to Schumers Office he informed the white house he was going to oppose the deal and it leaked to the Huffington Post and you would have to assume that it was the white house that leaked it. But look i think this is something that is about the politics of Chuck Schumer and new york. Not about him as a democratic leader and weve seen enough on the fence Democratic Senators come out for this that i think it looked more and more likely that that small core of democrats that can protect the president from a veto override is going to be there for him and Chuck Schumer is going to take a lot of grief on this from democrats. I dont think its likely to stop the president s deal. Thats something in and of itself, john because maybe the public is stupid again and doesnt know what its talking about. 21 against. You saw the republicans. Another incredibly devicive issue and all the points that were made about, you know yeah, there will be a big vote in congress against the deal but not big enough to override president obama. It doesnt seem like a way to i dont know. Maybe hes really, really sure that this is the best thing for the country but when everything is so devicive and you have 21 against it. He may be wrong. Joe, he may be wrong, the president , but he definitely believes this is in the best interest of the country. If you see the way he defends this deal, he is relishing this iran argument because he thinks hes right. He thinks the critics are wrong and hes going for it with a year and a half left in his presidency and we will find out subsequently you dont think schumer has any you think all the other democrats will say thats because hes from new york and hes got to do this . No, no. Not all the other ones. Just not enough to sink it. Chuck schumer in this case, you shouldnt look at him as the democratic leader for purposes of this vote. Everyone on capitol hill views this as Chuck Schumer taking care of his own politics in new york. If the population is 21 opposed to this and now the senators are going to be home listening to their constituents and getting a feel about what they think about things will that change their minds over the summer recess too . Possible but a lot of people have come out already. But remember when you say 21 against the deal, thats not what our polls showed. Our poll which was out this week showed a more even split where you had equivalent you had about a third, a third, a third for it, against it, dont know enough about it. So it depends how you ask the question and at least in the nbc wall street journal poll it was not 21 against. John, thank you. You bet. Lets get more reaction. Trying to understand this. Joe watkins served as an official in the george h. W. Bush white house. Sarah fagan served as a political director in the george w. Bush white house. You guys might not argue that much about it. She is also a cnbc contributor. Maybe ill just frame it this way. It was the Republican Debate. So lets just assume that we want to get a republican view on this to try to diffuse the criticism. Why dont we have her on . But then she wouldnt come on because i might ask her about the difference between democrats and socialism. Just for what its worth, youre a republican, you work for 141 i guess. Do you have allegiance to 41 . No. I try to look at this as objectively as possible. I do like jeb bush. I think he did a good job. He showed that he was jeb bush. Hes not h. W. , or w. His own person. Very very different from his brother and his father. I thought he did very well last night. I thought that Chris Christie did well last night. Maybe were looking longterm too i guess joe. Now doing well and moving the chains are two different things. I think that jeb was stronger. Rubio may have moved the chains a little bit as well with his performance last night. He didnt necessarily answer the questions but he did a good job of defining himself for the audience watching. Donald trump may have lost as many as ten points. He is unfiltered and he wasnt as unfiltered last night as i thought he might be. Well, you have to be really they asked him the question about the general. What would you have done about the iranian general. He talked about the Iran Nuclear Deal and his opposition to it. A good trump answer would have been Something Like just what business is it of yours what i would do. I would take care of the guy. Why should i broadcast what im going to do to the world to this guy. But id take care of him. It would have answered the question directly. It would have answered it directly. He didnt do that last night. He wasnt himself last night as he has been in the past. Tlog say anythi willing to say anything without worrying about the consequences. He was a little bit more filtered than he normally is. Sarah, just quickly and not because youre a woman but because i thought Carly Fiorina was amazing and afterwards as well but i hear everyone saying that i dont know she cant be the top of the ticket. Maybe she could be maybe she can run for Vice President or Something Like that. Do you see it that way . Well i dont think that she is going to be the nominee. Not because she doesnt have ability but because it takes about 1. 3 billion to wage a race and theres no evidence yet that she can mount that type of an effort. Look, she has acquitted herself very well in this campaign and i think if she continues to have the performance that we have seen out of carly, she will be talked about as a vp candidate. She probably wont be the vp but i suspect that she will be the chairman of whoever the nominee of our party is. She will be the chairman of that campaign because she is proving to be the best communicator and certainly the best female communicator we have on the main stage as a party. Hats off to her. People see what they want to see and im looking at these crazy polls that are taken afterwards and i see cruz. Cruz wins and i didnt people see what they want to see depending on where they sit in the political spectrum. I think thats right. Well see just how effective folks were if those poll numbers move. We see dramatic shifts which i dont expect. Maybe except for donald trump. We see dramatic shifts then youll say well i guess so and so did outperform in the debate but i didnt see anybody knock the ball out of the park. This was like in a heavyweight fight the way to win is knockout the champ. You have to really knock the champ out. It almost seems like people are afraid to take trump on. Carly fiorina being an exception with this. They didnt seem like they wanted to really get in his way. The reason is because hes sitting on 25 of the vote right now depending on the poll you lack at. And there was a point at a break where senator cruz very sort of awkwardly hugged him. People were fawning on dawning. You saw governor kasich praised him or at least acknowledged the spirit he has captured within the Republican Party. So candidates are a little afraid of him and all republicans are surprised at some of the things he has said, particularly about senator john mccain and he has still continued to lead these polls. I dont expect thats going to last. Ultimately he will do two or three more debates and wont have substance like last night and that will catch up with him but for now he puts on an incredible show. People still like the rand paul supporters still love rand. I thought he had a tough time last night. He seemed deranged. The apple doesnt fall far from the tree. I remember his father talking about the fed or something. Did you see the commercial his father ran leading up to the debate. For him . No, just talking about the markets. About what he has talked about in the past just as a segentle reminder for his followers to get out the vote for his son. If i had to sum this debate up last night, you really think on broad scale, governors did very well, senators didnt do quite as well. Rubio got some good lines in but the other two, cruz and senator paul, they had kind of a tough night in my view. But the governors did very well though. I agree. Okay. That once again was the discl m disclaimer the republican side of thing. Ill play that side. Coming up. Im going to take that side. In fact, when we come back, we do have Something Else to talk about. Jobs in america in a fragile place when it comes to the markets. Will the employment report calm investor fears or raise more speculation on the future of Interest Rates. Right now as we head to a break check out this day in history. Every Auto Insurance policy has a number. But not every Insurance Company understands the life behind it. Those who have served our nation. Have earned the very best service in return. Usaa. We know what it means to serve. Get an Auto Insurance quote and see why 92 of our members plan to stay for life. Welcome back everybody it is jobs day. Economists are expecting 223,000 jobs were added to the economy in july with the jobless rate expected to remain unchanged at 5. 3 . Joining us to look at the impact on the markets is michelle gerard. Chief economist at rbs. Also john wilson, welcome to both of you. Michelle, tell me, is this really as important as we think . Is the fed watching this number . You know, he made the comment earlier in the week, six years and were waiting on one number or two to raise rates, i thought that was an excellent point. In the markets absolutely. They feel that the fed at least needs some cover, if you will, by continued strong data to justify taking the action. The fed set this up themselves by continue dwrully stressing its data dependent as opposed to saying were here. We have been growing 2. 5 for six years. We dont need emergency rates anymore. Would it take a number below 150. A number below 200. Maybe theres slow down. I think thats a great point. Anything over 200 meets that criteria of showing further improvement. What would make them nervous . As you said something 150 or lower would be large enough to suggest or worry them that something more meaningful has happened. As i said, of course it would almost be so weak it would look weird and there must be a fluke. Well have to wait and see how the next one goes. It would take a lot quite honestly at this point to justify not moving if you will because of really how far we have come. What do you think the labor market looks like right now. We know that 5. 3 is the official Unemployment Rate but theres people that take a look at the Participation Rate and say that things are out of whack and theres a lot of americans that dont feel that were headed in the right direction. How do you justify 5. 3 on unemployment with what you think is really happening . Well, if you look at all the data, you really cant. I dont think theres anyone out there that thinks 5. 3 is really the Unemployment Rate but thats what were dealing with. Michelle wright what she says about the jobs report. The other thing that would probably put it and Unemployment Rate would pick up from 5. 3 to 5. 4. That probably doesnt happen. Thats one of the worries out there just rolling the markets a little bit and its been awhile since we had a descent break of any kind and we had a knee jerk weakness for the last several years. Last october was the first correction weve had. Maybe were due for another one. Its hard to get too bearish or cautious in the context of the longterm bull market which i think were in. Why do you think were in a longterm bull market and it continues from here. If you look at history, the old mark twain adage that history doesnt always repeat itself but it often rhymes, one is theres only been five times in history, count it 2008 where the trailing ten year return got as low as it did. If you go back and look at what happened subsequent to that you always had ten years of above average gains following that and the range was around 12. 9 to 15. 7 compounded. So if you look at that and you kind of plot it out, were in about the 5th inning right now. We have gotten back into the range. They can cure it by pulling back a little bit or going sideways and right now we have been going sideways for the first time were beginning to see deteriorations in things like the decline line. Some nonconformations here and there but theyre not really stretched right now. The overbought, oversold indicators have been moderately neutral to slightly down. We need to really put in a good solid bottom if were going to get a descent correction here. You like to see it rising. Even get a little higher perhaps. Such a great indicator. Michelle, there are a lot of people grappling and looking around and trying to figure out whats happening. Theres nervousness in the market. What numbers are you looking at to try to figure out whats really happening. Again we sort of have to step back and it was talked about for a lot of people it doesnt feel like things are so strong and booming. But truthfully the economy is on solid footing and i think you see that when you look at the Consumer Spending. June was disappointing. The truth is were almost growing 3 in terms of Consumer Spending in the second quarter. Most of us are looking for that or better in the second half of the year. Thats an above trend performance. The economy even growing 2. 5 is growing above its potential and it gets back to the point that against that backdrop its probably time to start moving rates up to a level thats more normal. Thats more justified. Its time. Its time. Michelle, thank you. And john thank you. Thank you. Coming up, the real lead story of the day, the return of the lizard man spotted. Its not a movie opening. Its something much more terrifying but it means real business for one small town. Thats next. We dont have an actual picture but i can describe what this thing looks like. 7 feet tall. Lizard man . Yeah, the lizard man. Yeah the lizard man. Anyway as we head to break be afraid. Be very afraid. Heres a look at yesterdays s p 500 winners and losers. More and more, data is visual. In fact, the number of mris has increased by ten percent a year. And a radiologist might view a thousand images to find one tiny abnormality in shape, contrast or movement. Because its so challenging, a Research Project is teaching ibm watson to see. In the future, it could help clinicians spot key patterns quickly and precisely. Ibm watson is working to make healthcare smarter every day. When youre not confident your companys data is secure, the possibility of a breach can quickly become the only thing you think about. Thats where at t can help. At at t we monitor our Network Traffic so we can see things others cant. Mitigating risks across your business. Leaving you free to focus on what matters most. No students ever been the king of the campus on day one. But youre armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2in1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so youre walking the halls with varsity level swagger. Thats what we call that new gear feeling. You left this on the bus. Get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. Office depot officemax. Gear up for school. Gear up for great. You cant camp in maine when you were up there. No, we slept in a house. You slept in a house. There will come a time with your kids, kyle and maybe the girls, youre going to need ghost stories. Were already those. You are . Not with kyle. Just with the girls. You cant tell the one about the dog hanging in the shower yeah. That one works but might be a little scary for a 4yearold or 5yearold but lizard man. I did not know this but since 1988 theres been sightings in South Carolina of something called the lizard man. Look at that. 7 feet tall. That is obviously not a costume because that just looks so real with that tail. Anyway, hadnt been spotted in awhile. It was spotted again just recently. Something came out of the woods and ran across the bridge. Thats better than sasquach. Yeah. Its tall and has scales and alligator with short nose and long legs. A lot of people have seen it but they went to the university of South Carolina that studied animal and plant populations and he says until he actually sees it hes unable to disprove it and confirm it. In the human mind, i dont care how much education you got theres always this wonderful feeling that there are great mysteries out there. We cant know everything. We cant know everything. There are more things in heaven and earth rebecca than we have drempt of. I completely agree with that. I hope flst a lizard man. Theres not. Looked like the creature from the lagoon. Black lagoon. I want to talk about something that senator bill nelson has been talking about. Senate Committee Report is out and they are urging the airlines to be a little more transparent about the fees theyre charging people. He said the traveling public is being nickelled and dimed to death. No kidding. We know that already. Anyone thats flown in the last five years knows exactly whats going on with this. I dont know if we need the senate to tell us this or a report to go out with it but in case you didnt realize how much you were being nickelled and dimed today they say between 2007 and 2014 the amount of revenue that airlines generate from fees. Baggage fees and cancellation fees and getting rid or trying to move a time on your flight has gone from 2. 4 billion to 38. 1 billion. Baggage fees alone went from 346 million to 3. 5 billion. We know that. Its part of the reasons theyre making money. Anybody thats flown knows this. Probably not a news flash. Still a deal. Thats why the tickets are still reasonable. You drove. You were doing some driving with the kids. We did a ten hour car trip. Not easy is it . We got up at 4 30. Who was driving . Your husband . Matt. It is tense. The trucks and bumps and you never know, one wrong move and, you know do you know how many license plates we got. Of different states. 43. 43. Alaska, hawaii, idaho. Oregon. We got oregon. Montana. Montana was on the list we didnt get. Utah we didnt get. We got utah the last day. I take that back. East or west dakota. North or south we did not. Dy i had get that wrong. One of the kids asked about south virginia. South virginia. Anyway, up next, media melt down. Media stocks taking a beating this week. Disney, fox, time warner, viacom and others in the downdraft. Will we start to see Companies Looking for a lifeline . That is next when squawk box comes right back. Can a business have a mind . A subconscious. A knack for predicting the future. Reflexes faster than the speed of thought. Can a business have a spirit . Can a business have a soul . Can a business be. Alive . Welcome back to squawk box everyone. Take a look at the u. S. Equity futures. We have been watching things as we head into this jobs report we get in under two hours at this point. Things are relatively flat. Traders probably waiting to see what happens with the jobs report because that will give them clues as to what the fed may do next in september. The dow is down by 5. 5. S p futures down fractionally and the nasdaq down by about four points. Viacom the latest major Media Company to be getting crushed by as much as 20 yesterday after reporting lackluster earnings. Now down over 40 this year. Is viacom in danger of losing to the digital disruptor . A new study showing that 20 of younger viewers watch netflix. Joining us now to talk about it is brian steinberg. He is Senior Television editor at variety. And its been severe this week. Has it been overdone . Maybe it is perhaps but i think its a bad quarter and bad decade. Its with good reason though. Suddenly if youre looking at a complete change in how people consume television that is going to leave some of the big standard guys, the giants right now maybe fumbling to try to find their way. Thats right. Its a big question about durable lines of revenue. Cable distributors have always been rock solid and now youre saying that its not solid anymore. It hasnt changed that much and over the next five years we dont see it being more than in the past five years. Kind of a move are they lying or clueless . People think espn and walking dead, two of the most stable programming ventures are under duress. From espn it was instead of it was a 1 loss. But iger spent a lot of time on the call defending espn and people took that as a sign of weakness. Because he had to defend it from the questions. Yeah. I look at what happened to print and i try to see the analogy. We use netflix now. Maybe not everyone can afford it but i dont see the Actual Experience at home shifting. They came out saying buy time warner. If that was a justified blood bath. Were they worth the higher valuations we saw earlier . Is this something that could turn on a dime. I was amazed to see this effect the entire industry. Its true. I do think, look, scale will do better. Disney, comcast and fox all have multiple portfolios and they can sell them to netflix and amazon and overseas better. Sometimes theyre smaller. When you have at t and directv merging, you have people that have smaller and i think getting smaller. Those are bigger questions. I wish we could see the future obviously because disney was the biggest the highest performing dow component before that happened. Got shanghai, disney, its got star wars coming and youre not a stock analyst but a lot of times really quick large corrections serve to move the stock from the weak hands to the stronger hands and its the slow, steady sickening decline over a year or two years. Its not the quick breaks that people use to buy. I wish we could say it. I wish we could say what the future is. I dont know at this point. The question does come back to is content still king . Looking at cbs which seems to do well despite being a Smaller Company in todays sector is doing well and has plans to articulate being digital as well. One to watch, i think shows that get this viral sensation that do well once and overseas have a future. Its maximizing the windows of content that will probably be who survives. What about viacom though . The question becomes do they have the content that people still want to watch. Its heavily dependent on younger kids. Nickelodeon, mtv, comedy central, these were all the first adopters. Theyre more prone to taking a couple of services and having fun with it. Viacom is trying new add deals and to maximize content but theyre still a television company. How much of it is even jon stewart leaving comedy central. Its a whole thing over there. John oliver and jon stewart. That network built a great lineup over the last couple of years. Theyre trying to rebuild a whole grid certainly. Thank you for coming in. Watch out, falling prices in the oil market. Are we about to see oil plunging below 40 . And gasoline below 2 at the pump . More on the oil shock. Bring it on next on squawk box. But youre armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2in1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so youre walking the halls with varsity level swagger. Thats what we call that new gear feeling. You left this on the bus. Get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. 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Crude oil sliding to the lowest level since march, and down over 50 over the last year on continued investor concerns over u. S. Stockpiles of gas and oil. Here now with more on where oil prices could be headed, or what might influence that is kevin book, Clear View Energy partners managing director. What is this latest rout . Is it demand or supply . Its really a supply issue. I think what happened is the market looked down after the iran deal. I think there was a lot of speculative long interest that believed that because rig counts were following, there was going to be an imminent resolution of the overhang in the market. But then the reminder that even more oil could be coming back. Gosh, that was the reason to sort of do a gut check. And since then, weve seen a lot of connection back towards where i think a lot of people thought the market should have been a while ago. So, speaking of the iran deal, weve got 24 days, i guess. We can turn things on and off in less time than that now, cant we . People think you retire a drilling rig and its, like, two years before it can come back up. But theres a different some of these things you just dont have to tap immediately, but you can turn it right back on. We got back to 60 or 65 and they turned it right back on, didnt they . Yeah, that kind of flexibility is here to stay. Part of whats going on is in the nearterm, theres this huge bag log of drilled wells that havent yet been completed through fracturing. Part of the reason is the price isnt right right now. Part of the reason is the price of services used to be too high. Thats the first oil to come back to market after the price signal calls for it. After that, though, yeah, you can turn things around fast. Pad drilling has really shortened the timeframe for new wells to come on from existing resources. That can be 30 days. So people that say 70 by the end of this year, and then 75 next year, that probably isnt going to happen, is it . Next year still looks a bit rocky, especially with the Iranian Oil Coming back to market. But there is a longterm story playing out. If you think about what u. S. Oil is doing right now, its replacing the Spare Capacity that the saudis used to turn on and off when they were balancing the market. Now that were balancing the market, were just a balancer. Were not necessarily the incredibility. What is the incredibility . The oil thats not being invested in in the brazilian offshore, and the big fields and big projects that are being scuttled at low prices. When you look out into the long haul, you have to ask, is demand going to come back . And demand is coming back. Its coming back here on the american roads first, but everywhere else, it will eventually wake up, rub the dust out of its eyes and get behind the wheel. So, if china either recovers or falls off a cliff, either one of those things matter on the demand side . Will that add to whats going on to supply, or could it be its own mover . China is the whole story right now. No, for demand. All right, so it still matters. Very much still matters. But the point is that right now whats happened is the supply reality has come home to roost. Its always supply and demand. But it would really help to know, you know, when were trying to figure out the Global Economy. It would help to know whether, you know, this is a demand or supply situation with oil because we make, you know, forecasts about Global Growth based on it. If its a demand thing, weve got problems with Global Growth. Structurally, demand is weak because so much of oil demand is gdp linked and its mostly in the nonoacd economies. But that can come back and heres hoping it will. Okay, kevin. Thank you. You watch the debate . Sure did. Who did you like . I liked the end of the debate. Thats not nice. There wasnt enough action for you . I thought ben carson was terrific. He had some moments, didnt he . He sure did. I thought it was funny, he thought greenspan was the treasury secretary. Then again, hes the neurosurgeon. He looks at the brain. I wish i didnt know as much as i know about alan greenspan. Thanks, kevin. Thanks for having me. We know a little too much, right . Maybe. When we come back this morning, the countdown to the jobs report. Prediction on what the numbers will mean for the feds next decision. Well be right back. It took Serena Williams years to master the two handed backhand. But only one shot to master the chase mobile app. Technology designed for you. So you can easily master the way you bank. The counterdown to the jobs report is on. Economist john writing and jason frenner are here with predictions. Spoiler alert. Donald trump refusing to rule out a run as an independent candidate if he doesnt get the gop nomination. Well break down the winners and losers from the Republican Debate. And its been a bloody week for media stocks. Losses in the last four sessions erasing 44 billion in market cap. We will talk to an analyst about the biggest losers. And the new Media Companies that are set to take off. The second hour of squawk box begins right now. Welcome back to squawk box. Im joe along with becky quick. Andrew ross sorkin is off today. 215,000 on foreign payrolls. Thats weak. Wow. They have to do work to come up with that . If you had to guess, wouldnt you say eh. All these economists. Do they do any math at all, or do they say, you know, 215. Do they do what you do, you mean . Yeah, 215. Isnt 215, given what weve had, thats just like a guesstimate. That could be 150 or 350. They have no idea. Well, its not economists fault. Its the variability of the data. Even the best models have an average era of plus or minus. But we also have to remember the benefit comes in at 170. We shouldnt cry its weak, its weak. Its just you know, its just a low end of the draw. Are you allowed to say kiss your sister . You just did. Thats a kiss your sister guess. Thats weak. Im not taking any chances here. Its august. Got to come up with a number. Glad im not your sister. Because youre insulting at the same time. No. You know what im saying. And im not going to go any further than that because im going on vacation and i dont want anything to happen. The Unemployment Rate expected to remain steady at 5. 3 in this twitter world. You know what im saying . Im with you. U. S. Equity futures at this hour down 12 at this point on the dow. This is negative from where they were earlier. The last time we looked at them, it was down. 8. When i was coming in, it was up just a little bit. Overseas in asia, the shanghai did rise more than 2 . Fireworks last night at the gop president ial debate. John harwood is in cleveland and has the highlights. Donald trump was at the center of the stage even when he wasnt on it. Former Business Executive Carly Fiorina grabbed attention by going right after him. I dont know. I didnt get a phone call from bill clinton before i jumped in the race. Did any of you get a phone call from bill clinton . When the main event started, a fox news moderator challenged trump to pledge loyalty to the gop. Mr. Trump he refused, drawing a quick but harmless attack from rand paul. Paul tried again when trump praised Single Payer Health care. The Republican Partys been fighting against a single payer system for a decade. So i think youre on the wrong side of this if youre still arguing for a single payer system. I dont think you heard me. Youre having a hard time tonight. Jeb bush was more careful and polite, but didnt damage the real estate tycoon much either. The one thing you did say about me, however, was my tone. And i also understand that. But when you have people that are cutting christians heads off, we dont have time for tone. Trumps own message was simple. Instead of a traditional politician, the country needs him. This country right now owes 19 trillion, and they need somebody like me to straighten out that mess. Others like scott walker and marco rubio focused on their own messages before the large primetime audience. It may have paid off most for home state Ohio Governor john kasich, who was energetic and up beat after just recently entering the race. What that caution from most of the candidates indicated was that they dont think its the time for them to try to take donald trump downright now. Theyre hoping instead the calendar does it when people begin going to the polls in early 2016. The hope of these candidates is that they will look at donald trump and say that is not somebody i can see in the oval office. Reporting from cleveland, im john harwood. Thats john harwood. Well have more reaction to the debate coming up at the bottom of the hour but weve been talking about it all morning. It was fireworks. Something to watch. Were not going to know how it really plays until we see the next polls. Probably, its 45 45, and then the 10 in the middle. Whoever wins the majority of the 10 gets elected. So donald trump right now is at 25 , who at this point can just as a republican can just write off that 22 . You cant. Thats probably why you saw so much deference. People were almost afraid to take him on. Hes known for lashing out. When he doesnt agree with you, did that to megyn kelly last night, didnt like her questions and took her to task for it. She was ready. She was ready to do it. She did it with glee. My point was that theres no Mainstream Media outlet that will do this to the democrats. I mean, you wont get a fox type of fox, really, from my opinion, they really wanted to make it seem clear that they were going to be fair. That they were going to be tough on the candidates. We needed to hear what these guys had to say. Someone said jeb came in as cold oatmeal and didnt warm up. But you know what . You microwave cold oatmeal and its still healthy, its still nutritious, its still a good meal. He doesnt need to immediately warm up his oatmeal. I think part of it was he had to survive last night and not make a misstep. And you cant enter the fray in the food fight necessarily. M basically saying he needs to look like the adult in the room. He cant get into a screaming match with somebody calling each other stupid. And he did that. And christie okay, so he said he was in new jersey at the time. People where i lived, lost a lot of people in 9 11. Its a bedroom community. And rolling your eyes when you say that was weird. Rand paul. Did you see . The smirk. That was weird. Although rand paul was talking about the hug after sandy. Later. Yeah. Thats the one thing people do bring up. Well talk more about it later this morning and we have a lot to get to with the jobs report. Want to tell you quickly about some of the other top stories. One of the most powerful democrats in the senate breaking ranks with the president over the Iran Nuclear Deal. Senator Chuck Schumer said he would oppose the agreement. Nbc news is reporting that a sophisticated cyber attack against an unclassified pentagon email system was conducted by russian hackers. That attack occurred around july 25th and it affected some 4,000 military and civilian personnel who worked for the joint chiefs of staff. Officials say it isnt clear if the attack was sanctioned by the russian government. And google and samsung responding to more frequent Cyber Attacks on mobile devices. The companies will release security updates for android phones each month. Previously uncoordinated releases of security patches left millions of people without with vulnerability to some of those attacks. Joining us now is jason trenner. How many people do you know that have an anagram for a last name . Palendrome . We all have anagrams. But you blew it because you used to work at isi. But it is cool. I dont think it scores heavy with the chicks. Palandrome, not really something to lead with. Exnay on the chick word. Is that politically incorrect . Are both you guys at 215 for the jobs number . Were saying it has to be above 200 to keep the fed in the game for september. Im at 200. I actually dont think it has to be that strong to keep the fed in play. Forget about palindromes. Theyre telling us that the progress from here doesnt need to be as fast. And the Unemployment Rate is down at 5. 3 . So we think 150,000 over the next two months keeps the fed in play. They shouldnt tie it to the jobs report. They should go anyway and start restoring some value to overnight money and start lifting Interest Rates off zero. Its almost seven years since Interest Rates went to zero. Got to do your gut strong numbers that youve just seen on the most important reports. Its very hard to justify zero. I would say theyre clearly pockets of misallocations of capital as a result of the fact that you have such easy money. Its also, i would argue without good fiscal or regulatory or trade policy, youre just throwing good money after bad. Youre creating other problems. Unforeseen circumstances. I think its high time. My own opinion. If there was a time when they thought that the animal spirits in the stock market were being conjured by their zerp, were at 174 now. And were not getting any benefit at all in the stock market from this anymore. And i honestly think the stock market is waiting for these clowns to finally make the move. Were pointing to the fed and the stock market. Capital spending isnt getting any boost. We thought it would eventually. What were seeing is Companies Buying other companies. Other Companies Investing in their own growth. And thats what the fed wants to see. So to me its not an Interest Rate program. Did you see him the other day . He denied that when i said companies arent doing what they would normally do. Theyve got zero Interest Rate so they do all this other stuff instead of investing in plant equipment and employees. They seek to take over by nominally moving the headquarters overseas. Theres a lot we could do to stimulate the economy that isnt the distortion of zero Interest Rates. You have too much uncertainty again with the other types of policies. So if youre running a business i run a Small Business, john runs a Small Business. I cant even imagine a large business. If you dont know what the rules are going to be, two years, one year, one year ahead of time, why would you make Capital Spending decisions . You use the cash for things that are immediately created. Not saying its good, but its a very rational approach if youre running a company. Capital spending by the time it works out, you could be spending more time with your family. Its very rational for people to do things that are more shortterm. So the notion of policies that would take us to 4 gdp, which jeb bush says hes doing and gets hammered by the left, which is perfectly willing to accept 2 because of globalization, and if were going to have a euro entitlement state, weve got to be happy with two. Would pro growth get us back to three, three and a half consistently . I think we have to figure out how to get productivity up. And we have had in the jobs numbers, talking about 215,000. That kind of job growth number on a consistent basis typically was associated with 3. 5 to 4 job growth. Maybe partly its mismeasurement in all the new Media Companies that youre going to be talking about later where their contributions to output add to prices, dont get properly captured because the gdp doesnt capture it. Or maybe theres something more problematic, more systemic in the nature of low productivity, and that comes back to Capital Spending in part, in my opinion. But to get it to if you got demand up to 4 and didnt fix the supply side, the u. S. Economy would run into trouble. I think 4 is imminently doable for the United States. The United States has benefits that other parts of the world dont have. Were relatively open to immigration. So we have higher birthrates. We have natural resources, which were not using. Maybe the only country dumb enough in the history of history not to use its own natural resources. I dont think 4 is i just dont believe in the new normal. I really think that certain Government Policies could greatly aid in not just accepting 2 . No one wants to be a wildeyed optimist, but whats wrong with aiming for that . So you hit 3. 5. Better than 2. Of course. But again, these are theyre always tradeoffs, political tradeoffs that you have to make. Whether youre talking about Energy Policy or other considerations that have come into play. But i think the u. S. Is blessed again with certain advantages that lets say japan or europe, its just not going to happen. No matter what they do. And its compounded, i would argue, by bad policies. Here we just have not so great policies. All right. Thank you. Did i say rdq . I didnt even introduce you as that. Do we need to mention your company and your title . No. You sure . You stand on your own. Johns wellknown. Youre wellknown. Did i say straight gas . You get the straight gas. You cheaped out on paying someone for a name, didnt you . I know, clearly, we came up with it ourselves. We didnt hire a branding consultant on that one. Run it by me next time. Gentlemen, thank you both. When we come back, some big movers, dom chu takes a look at the most clickworthy stocks. Plus, a bloody week for media stocks. We will break down the biggest losers and ask an analyst which new Media Companies stand to gain from cutting the cord. Squawk box will be right back. College students drop out. But how can you spot whos at risk . The one who lives far from campus . The one who works the night shift . The one with new responsibilities . One thing cant tell you, but the right combination can. Universities are using ibm analytics to understand pressures in and out of the classroom some expect to cut dropout rates by twentyfive percent. Ibm analytics is working to make education smarter every day. Welcome back, everybody. We have seen some big movers in the last few weeks of earnings reports. Our dom chu is here, he breaks it down with the buzz stocks getting the most clicks on cnbc. Com. Good morning, and happy friday, becky. This whole idea that viewers have a real affinity for certain numbers of stocks out here really place out in what im going to show you here. What we took a look at are the stocks that get the most clicks. The ones that get the most searches on our website. And if you take a look at these, these are the top ten. Single stock tickers that get the most interest from our viewers and our readers on cnbc. Com. Number one, far and away and no surprise here is apple and its been that way for quite some time now. But take a look at the performance. One monthwise. This was as of a couple of days ago, the performance. Fitbit was up, but now its more like 4 or 5 . Bank of america, the secondmost searched stock over the past month, those shares up by about 5 . Also old names that we focus on quite a bit. General electric one of the top ten most searched ones. Disney, no huge surprise there given their earnings. And the billions of dollars of market cap that have been lost from some of americas biggest media and content companies. And twitter shares down 22 as well. We want to put some of these in broader context. If you take a look at this yeartodate chart, you can see netflix shares up today up 160 to 127 a share. A huge momentum upside player right now. Well see if that continues. On the downside, perhaps no surprise here. You can see those shares a volatile one. Earnings related, some of the momentum carries through. Twitter and netflix, two of the top ten most clicked on stocks, some of the ones that have had the biggest moves among large cap names. Interesting that these are the stocks that viewers spend the most time researching, clicking, looking, and quoting when it comes to our website, becky. Back over to you. Dom, thank you so much. Coming up, carl icahn disclosing a new investment. Why the billionaire is finding value in the Energy Sector, next. Time now for todays aflac trivia question. What important of the current u. S. Population is made of up millennials . The answer when cnbc squawk box continues. Ah aflac . Aflac i thought you said this guy was the best . Oh, hes a horrible stylist. Gah . But hes the best at paying claims fast really. Mmhmm. Paid mine in just one day. One day . Yea. Aaaflaaaac in just one day, we approve and pay. One day pay, only from aflac. Everyone loves the picture i posted of you. At t reminds you it can wait. No students ever been the king of the campus on day one. But youre armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2in1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so youre walking the halls with varsity level swagger. Thats what we call that new gear feeling. You left this on the bus. Get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. Office depot officemax. Gear up for school. Gear up for great. Now the answer to todays aflac trivia question. What portion of the current u. S. Population is made up of millennials . The answer, 1 3. Oh, my god. Did you hear that . What . The percentage of u. S. Population is millennials. A third i love millennials. Love them. Welcome back. A german newspaper reporting that the countrys finance ministry favors a bridge loan to give greece more time to negotiate a comprehensive bailout. It could be a Sticking Point in negotiations. The greek Prime Minister and french president has said they expect to agree on a full bailout by late august. A bridge loan would be necessary for greece to make a 3. 5 billion euro payment. This one actually counts. Its not to the imf. Its one that would constitute a default, i think. And north korea announcing it will establish its own time zone next week. Pulling back its current standard time by 30 minutes. The establishment of pyongyang time is seen as a move to distance north korea from a legacy of the japanese colonial period, which ended 70 years ago. Creating their own galaxy. Halfhour. Difference in halfhours. Okay. Also some Business News for you this morning. Billionaire carl icahn unveiling his latest investment, disclosing that he holds an 8. 2 stake in cheniere energy. He has some thoughts about what they could be doing to change things. One of them was pretty interesting. Weve always known the price of the commodity very rapidly determines the shares. I think hes tying it back to that. If you get paid high when the stock is high, you should be getting paid low when the commodity and the stock is low. Right. And, you know, if theres a wind fall profits tax, we should be somehow helping these poor oil and Gas Companies now. From a guy who owns 8. 2 , though. He can make that call when you own that much of it. He does. His competition, i would trade mine for. I think. I would agree with that. Just barely. But again, when youre an owner, you get to call the shots on that stuff. If you missed the delivering alpha conference, weve got some good news for you. Complete coverage of the investing conference is now Available Online at deliveringalpha. Com. Heres jamie dimon at the conference, sharing his Investment Advice from everything on oreos to beer. I think go where risk is on your side. Find areas where theres a lot going on. The supply demand is in your favor. We really think that the owner of budweiser clearly is interested in continuing to grow. They actually have enormous value to consolidation. All these industries are good, stable businesses, so theyre i think theyre safe to own. You dont have to worry about somebody waking up one day and deciding no ones ever going to eat oreo cookies again. Coming up, donald trump was the only candidate at last nights debate who refused to take the no spoiler pledge. We will talk to winners and losers of last nights faceoff with former congressman herald ford and katie packer gauge. Hello. I am here to offer sophisticated investing strategies. My technology can help you choose the right portfolio. Monitor it. And automatically rebalance it. All without charging advisory fees, account service fees or commissions. That may be hard to compute. But im a computer. So trust me. It computes. Say hello at intelligent. Schwab. Com welcome back to squawk box. Among the stocks that were watching, Capital One Financial in exclusive talks to acquire general electrics. U. S. Health care finance unit. And a deal could top 10 billion t dollars 68. And visual Computing Company invidia jumping in late trading. Profits came in below expectations. And lions gate, the studio behind the hunger games is reporting profits of 26 cents a share, well above expectations. But revenue of 409 million missed estimates of 428 million. I skip things that just dont make any sense sometimes. I mean, maybe it was, maybe it wasnt. I just dont know for sure whether they earned 28 cents and the estimate was for seven cents. And the stocks down. I dont know. Maybe it seems like i need to look at it myself before i will put my brand on the line for whether thats factual or not. Same with this guy coming up. And now they all know how the sausage gets made. Yeah, exactly. Good morning. If i call you mr. Mayor, do you take offense to that . Mayor de blasio certainly would as well. Okay, sorry. Lets talk about why herald is here this morning. The republican candidates facing off in primetime in the first of several debates. Senator marco rubio held his own and had this to say about Small Business and jobs in america. The first thing we need to do is even out the tax code for Small Businesses so that we lower their tax rate to 25 just as we need to lower it for all businesses. We need to have a regulatory budget in america that limits the amount of regulations on our economy. We need to repeal and replace obamacare. And we need to improve Higher Education so that people can have access to the skills they need for 21st century jobs. Joining us right now is herald ford, former u. S. Congressman and managing director at morgan stanley. Also katie packer gauge, she is former Deputy Campaign manager of romneys 2012 campaign. And political consultant. I want to get to you in a moment, herald, but i want to start with katie first. Katie, i want to know what you thought, as a republican, which of these did you think did the best and who would you choose at this point to be your candidate . Well, im not sure im ready to make that choice. But it was a big night. All of the focus was on donald trump, and to some degree jeb bush. I thought some rising stars in our party had really good nights and did good things for themselves. I thought Carly Fiorina, even though she was in the happy hour debate earlier, had a really big night and did a lot of good for herself. I thought marco rubio had a really strong night last night. Scott walker. John kasich, whos new to the race, had some big moments and certainly had a hometown crowd with him. So i think it was nice to see some attention on folks that havent been getting all of the media attention, and i think what it says is weve got a lot of diversity in our party. Certainly a lot more than the democrats are presenting to the American Public in 2016, and i think it was an exciting night to be a republican. Of course, it also says that you have a lot of choices and a lot of different people who are going to split the vote at this point, making it much more difficult for anyone to go up against a democratic contender at this point. Looking at this objectively, who did you think did the best . I dont disagree a lot with katie at this. I think if youre a republican, you want to frame this debate the way marco rubio did, the future versus the past. Im a Hillary Clinton supporter. If you look at it objectively, thats the way elections are won. Bill clinton taught all democrats that you dont stop thinking about tomorrow and rubio did best there. I think kasich was second. Having certained with jo eservef the stories, he talked about ohio. A lot of it is true. I think some of it people will quarrel with. But i think he had a super night. As a moderate voter, those two did the best. If youre a conservative voter, a republican voter, i think cruz and huckabee probably did themselves some justice in trying to appeal to a lot of the trump supporters. I didnt think scott walker performed as well as he needed to. He didnt have a bad night, but he needed to perform a little better. Joe likes the golf analogies. Jeb bush shot par last night. Hes fine. Hes substantive. Stumbled around just a little bit with some of the answers but by and large, he was fine. I think the loser probably was mr. Trump, only because i think some of the questions that came at him were probably a little tougher and the velocity certainly was a little higher than it was for some of the other candidates. But i think if youre sitting back on the democratic side and youre Hillary Clinton, and even the other candidates, and im for hillary, but if you sit become and you watch, i dont think the republicans made that much of i thought more people would have grabbed on to marcos future versus the past. If they do more of that, they find themselves in a better position and i think katies points probably have more resonance then. Katie, to what herald just said in terms of donald trump taking it on the chin, he was given more pointed questions. He was probably a little more under fire last night. What do you think happens to his supporters . Because were just going to kind of fumble around on this and try to figure this out until we see the next polls. I think if you have a record of taking positions that are not in line with republican positions and you refuse to say that youre not going to run against the republican nominee if its not you, then those seem like really tough questions. Those would not have been tough questions for anybody else on that stage. But the reality is, hes sort of the definition of a rhino. Hes just decided to be a republican after cozying up to the Democratic Party for a lot of years. And its tough to shy away from that when youre on a big stage. I do think hes at best, you know, he sort of holds on to the support he has. But ive been saying for some time that 20 to 25 is a ceiling for him. I dont see him expanding that support much beyond that and i do not think you know, yesterday on television, i bet my life our nominee was not going to be donald trump and i still stand by that today. I would even give Chris Christie and rand paul i thought they had an interesting exchange. Overall, there was no clear, dominant winner. I just think rubio and kasich are able to walk away from this. I think the two of them are able to walk away knowing that they gained some support and theyre going to gain a second look. Theres no doubt fiorina was the star. Youve said youre a hillary supporter again and again. Why should we think youre not holding up the candidates that you hope would be the easiest mark for her . And knowing you as i know you because you know him. Now youre a bankster at morgan stanley. Hes a straight talker. Really . Okay. I want to be very clear about where i stand. But i try to look at all this subjectively. You havent mentioned jim gol mo jim gilmore. You have to mention the things i mention to you in the green room. The future versus past argument in any president ial race is always the most formidable argument. Im not saying my candidate is the past. But any candidate thats able to talk about the future and embody it the best with those candidates is the candidate that has the best chance to win. How does Hillary Clinton fight that . You admitted shes not going to be your message has to be about the future and how you position america and families and workers and the economy to compete and win in a 21st Century Global economy. So she is in i think a great position to do those things. But marco was the first senator rubio was the first person in this race thus far to talk about that. With trump, if you remember his comments last night, he said america is in controversial shape, essentially. We are in were facing dire threats. Were facing terrible consequences. So i think that language resonates at times. However, we elect happy warriors. We elect those who are optimistic. There were so many times that Ronald Reagans name was invoked last night. I cant think of a more sunshine political warrior who projected more sunshine and embraced the optimism of america you think barack obama was an optimistic uniting positive president . Sure. When he ran, he was. In 2008, when he was running. I think its very hard to doubt or mess with that, but thats the way he campaigned. He talked about america being a better place. It hasnt gone quite according to plan. There would be those that would disagree with you on some of those points. I happen to agree with some elements of what youre saying. But as a candidate, youre not going to win the presidency of the United States preaching pessimism and doom. And senator rubio didnt do that last night. Marco certainly presents a strong contrast with Hillary Clinton, and i think to congressman fords point, this is about the future. Thats going to be a really hard thing for somebody that spent the last several decades in washington with drivers and airplanes ferrying her around to talk about connecting with the American People and presenting a plan for the future. I do think marco was somebody that stood out on that front last night. Again, i just want to reiterate. Carly fiorina had a strong night. Both of those, you know, as i was tweeting last night, are not your daddys Republican Party. They are a very different kind of brand for our party. I think having that kind of contrast begin to emerge as the face of the Republican Party is good for our party and presents a great contrast with Hillary Clinton, whos very much part of the past. So were going to take her on. Ive got to make this quick. When big, complicated serious matters are presented to the country, thats where Hillary Clinton shines. I think some of the mishaps last night by the republicans will revolve around big Foreign Policy questions. Theres no one more experience. Although her experience hasnt been really great for our country. But joe, if were faced one of the criticisms of president obama around Foreign Policy is that he lacked some of the experience needed. Theres no question as commander in chief, the foremost responsibility. Well have a lot of time i will send you Chris Matthews interview with Carly Fiorina after the debate. I dont know if you saw it last night. I did not. I heard it was an interesting exchange. Very solid. Carly did not take it on the chin at all. She gave it back. She said every single decision made as secretary of state was wrong. The country will have a chance to settle that and decide that. Well, i hope so. Weve got to get some of this other stuff out of the way. I happen to disagree with that. If people want to talk about their own decisions, where they were in life, the Public Sector or the private sector, a lot of time to do that. With benghazi, he was saying, how can you call her a liar and then debate her when everything she says is a lie . She says, i didnt say everything she says is a lie. I was very specific about what was a lie. Youre talking about what ms. Fiorina said with Chris Matthews. A point by point sort of summary of what happened with benghazi. They knew full well that that was not a tape. That that was not the movie. And i ask you as an american, as a friend, as a smart guy. Do you honestly believe Hillary Clinton and her team at the state department intentionally put people in peril . No, but they didnt admit that they knew it was a terrorist attack on the anniversary of the 2001 terrorist attack. It was in their political interest to look like things there in libya were that they didnt need more security, because they hadnt managed the situation well. And to obfuskate the situation. Saying were going to get retribution and they should not have used it as a political well, they did take that. Not taking responsible for it at the end of the day is something that i think made her she took full responsibility. I dont think thats how its viewed when you look at the footage in the hearing. I dont think its viewed that way. I think its viewed that she sort of said hey, what difference does it make now . People say she should just own it. If thats the case, in fairness to your point, should congress not own underfunding the state departments efforts to provide security and provide the kind of personnel at these embassies . If they dont have the funding they need, you should raise the alarm before there are dead americans that are giving their lives for it. In fairness, she did. I think thats something shell have to hold responsible for. In fairness, she did. It will be interesting to hear how the country falls down on this. I look forward to this debate. I look forward to you guys picking a nominee. When you do, perhaps we can have a longer conversation. That would be great. Katie, thank you for joining us. Harold, thank you for being here. Absolutely. Coming up, fallout from when were on the gulf, well talk more about this. And the new Media Players who can better. Benefit. 40 of the streetlights in detroit, at one point, did not work. You had some blocks and you had major thoroughfares and corridors that were just totally pitch black. Those things had to change. We wanted to restore our lighting system in the city. You can have the greatest dreams in the world, but unless you can finance those dreams, it doesnt happen. At the time that the bankruptcy filing was done, the Public Lighting Authority had a hard time of finding a bank. Citi did not run away from the table like some other bankers did. Citi had the strength to help us go to the credit markets and raise the money. Its a brighter day in detroit. People can see better when theyre out doing their tasks, young people are moving back in town, the kids are feeling safer while they walk to school. And folks are making investments and the community is moving forward. 40 of the lights were out, but theyre not out for long. Theyre coming back. Dentist appointment when my teeth are ready . Can it tell the doctor how long you have to wear this thing . Can it tell the Flight Attendant to please not wake me this time . The answer is yes, it can. So, the question your customers are really asking is, can your business deliver . The traditional tv industry is in the cross hairs of a media malaise amid an industry, stocks sell off and rising concerns about how cord cutters could damage the latest Media Companies. Equivalent to macys and under armour combined, but have stocks been brought down unfairly . Joining us now, anthony declemente, a senior analyst. Some people look at cbs, its so different from viacom. Viacom is so different than disney. Disney shanghai, you talk star wars coming up. All the other things that make up that company. Theyve all had huge runs. And thats part of the reason the air can come out so quickly, isnt it . Yeah, some have had bigger runs than others. Theres three things that you consider when you think about whether to buy these media stocks on the selloff. They have to have three characteristics, in my opinion. One is they have to have scale. Two is they have to offer live sports. And three is theyve got to have the ability to go direct to consumer. So the way hbo, cbs, perhaps at some point espn can go direct. If youre 03 on those, you become a bit in the uninvestable category. If youre 33 on those, lets talk about valuation and the multiple and has your stock reached a value multiple. First, whos in the 03 camp . We for a long time have been cautious on more of the pure cable tv providers, because thats where advertising has come down the most. Viacom down 9 . And thats the most risk to the bundle breaking apart. Discovery, scripps, viacom. These are typically very highly exposed. The bigger, more diversified ones not the case. If you took media as an industry, weve done analysis that would suggest that even if the group lost five million subscribers, and remember, disney didnt talk about that. Disneys change was very minute. If you lost 5 million, the average earnings hit would be about 6 . Now, for the guys i just mentioned, it would be more than that, because theyre more exposed to cable tv. For some of these stocks that are down, in the group down close to 10 , you mentioned some of the numbers, those could be overreactions. When you watch how the nubs slowly over five, six, seven, eight years, a quarter point, half point at a time. I dont think these are newspapers. Thats what im saying. Theyre not. But these quick market corrections arent usually the beginning of the long decline. Youre comparing them to newspapers, though. No, im comparing them to old media versus new media. A fast break in the shot clock versus a slow decline. What does netflix have out of those three . Net flex is the most powerful distributor of media. Theyre going to be part of the oligopoly. Theyve got distribution and theyre working their way up the chain on content. So they are 33. You said live sports. They dont have sports, but theyre sort of the best of distribution. Netflix is not in the category of massive content provider. Theyre getting there. Thats easier said than done, too. The networks that are supposedly so good at it. But what netflix has is distribution. Theyre a bigger distributor. Their multiple is bigger than the biggest cable distributor. For this industry to work in five or ten years, you need to have a symbiotic relationship between content and distribution. Its only going to work. So who are the new distributors . And we know who they are. Apple, amazon, google, netflix, facebook possibly. And those guys are taking the place of the old line, the facilities based distributors. And one of the outcomes could be refinement of direct to consumer strategies. Could be industry consolidation. I think the industry executives are starting to rethink their strategy. So netflix is 53 billion now. A year and a half ago, probably i dont know, 20 billion or so. So its kind of weird that people didnt realize it was worth more than 20 billion. Now at 53 billion, what do you really think this companys potential is . Is it 200 billion eventually . You know, i dont see why it cant be 100 billion company. A 100 billion company. To disrupt everybody else, whats the total market cap of all those other Media Companies . Whos going to get it . Its not a zero sum game. But 100 billion is not going to take all the market share away from everybody else. Yeah, i dont necessarily look at it as a zero sum game. I would think as much as you love netflix, youd think its more than 100 billion. Weve been with netflix for a why. I think on valuation, it becomes more difficult above 60 or 70 billion market cap to make the case. Really . But the Consumer Behavior is there. I mean, the viewership on netflix is up like straight up into 55 . Cable tv viewership is down. I know. I go on netflix once in a while. 90 of the time im still going either to a news channel or sports channel or ill check out what hbo you know, the bundle, and just having all the option of going all out. Its going to be hard for me to change with a 75inch tv and a comfortable couch. I mean, i got netflix. My daughters different. Shes on netflix the entire time. I say, well, what if you need 33 . A third of the population. Theyre going to come around. Theyre not always going to be millennials. They cant be. Theyre crazy about everything else, too. What time warner did in terms of scaling things down and becoming leaner, is that the wrong move . Need to be bigger and bigger to be able to compete in this world . I think that maybe a mischaracterization in that time warner is doubling down on their content investment at turner, so theyre also investing in hbo. I think its the right investment. Hbo now is their direct to consumer solution. And theyre investing in that. I think that is the right decision. I think its investing in networks that arent going to be included in the bundle. So you mentioned time warner. They have a great thing in the sense that their economics are concentrated to the four networks. And what are they . Tnt, tbs, cartoon network, cnn, adult swim. So thats like 85 , 90 of their economics. They dont have 15 or 20 networks, whereas fragmented viewership across many networks. All right. Thank you. Thanks. When we come back this morning, big movers ahead of the opening bill. Weve got your list of stocks to watch next. But utilities can now predict where the power will go out, within a few city blocks. Working with ibm, theyre combining micro weather forecasts with detailed data from local sensors. To predict where outages are likely to occur. On en theyre needed. Ibm analytics from the internet of things is making energy smarter every day. Can a a subconscious. Mind . A knack for predicting the future. Reflexes faster than the speed of thought. Can a business have a spirit . Can a business have a soul . Can a business be. Alive . No students ever been the king of the campus on day one. But youre armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2in1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so youre walking the halls with varsity level swagger. Thats what we call that new gear feeling. You left this on the bus. Get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. Office depot officemax. Gear up for school. Gear up for great. Welcome back, everybody. Lets take a look at shares of hershey this morning. The chocolate maker reported a profit of 78 cents a share, three cents better than the street was expecting. Revenue did miss expectations, it came in at 1. 57 billion. The company blaming weaker sales in china. You can see that that stock is up by about 20 cents. When we return this morning, were a little more than a half an hour away from the july jobs report. Congress expecting an increase of 215,000 nonfarm payrolls. We will be right back with our panel of experts. Stick around. Everyone loves the picture i posted of you. At t reminds you it can wait. I built my business with passion. But i keep it growing by making every dollar count. Thats why i have the spark cash card from capital one. I earn unlimited 2 cash back on everything i buy for my studio. And that unlimited 2 cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business. Thats huge for my bottom line. Whats in your wallet . Jobs take center stage. Special coverage of the july jobs report just minutes away. Can the numbers help stop the dows sixday slide . Will it set the stage for a rate hike in september . Our special jobs panel is here and ready to talk numbers, the issues facing the economy, and most importantly, what it means for your money. Plus, cleveland rocked. The first Republican Debate is in the books. Which candidates stood out, and which could fall by the wayside . Former chief of staff under president obama bill daly will join us with his reaction straight ahead. It is jobs friday. The final hour of squawk box begins right now. Yes, yes. I know you think youre looking at a digital clock. But in fact, you are looking at the Labor Department in washington, d. C. The Labor Department in washington, d. C. If you dont know what time it is, you do now. Thats where the numbers are a halfhour or something. Exactly at 8 30, were going to get those numbers. Welcome back to squawk box. Maybe you didnt see earlier, but becky quick is here. Andrew is off. But the guy in north korea decided he doesnt like the time zone because everybody else has it. I think he said to get away from japanese imperialism, but it sounds like hes doing it to create his own time zone. I think he ought to go 12 hours. Just go crazy. With 30 minutes, its like a half measure. Were less than 90 minutes away from the opening bell. The futures right now down 15 points, waiting, waiting, and watching and digesting the what did we call it, a food fight, a knife fight, or just a wonderful exercise in democracy that we all went through. Did you stay up and watch it . I did watch some of it. But the main thing is i watched it with my son. And rolled the starspangled banner. My son was like we just came back from going out. And he said, dad, the debates on. Lets go watch. We watched it with the girls. And god bless america, hes watching. Thats all i care about. Thats good. Check out the markets in europe this hour. Which were all red earlier. Now weve got the ftse surging,. 01 like temperatures last year. Anyway, becky, what other stories are there . Well, joe, let me tell you. There are a couple of things well be watching. Its all about jobs the next halfhour or so. The u. S. Economy is expected to have added 215,000 jobs in july. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 5. 3 . Of course, thats close to a sevenyear low. Average hourly wages are expected to gain some steam. Of course, wages have been stagnant so far this year. But they are looking for an uptick of 0. 2 for the month of july. Also, billionaire investor carl icahn is at it again. Icahn disclosing he holds an 8. 2 stake in cheniere energy. He says the shares were undervalued. And Berkshire Hathaway reports after the close today. Warren buffett and company expect positive impacts from the insuran insurance, finance, and Energy Sectors. Higher expenses from Railroad Operations could put a lid on results. A few stocks on the move this morning. The chip maker posted a surprise rise in revenue on strong demand. Monster beverage, though, reported disappointing results for the second quarter. It was the strong dollar and some issues with distribution, the Energy Drinks makers as the companies transition to its partnership with cocacola is occurring. Coke owns a percentage of monster. They fell 2 in after hours trading. The latest release of the jobs data is now about 26 minutes away. 26 minutes. Im not even going to try because it keeps changing. Lets talk markets. The state of the economy. And what the fed may do in september. Mark zandi is in studio. Looking good. How are you . Finelooking man. Thank you so much. Youre welcome. Barbara reinhard. A lot of people think she looks like austan goolsbee, but much better looking than austan goolsbee. Mbarbara reinhard, managing director at credit suisse. Kevin hassett is economic director at the American Enterprise austans here . Right after i just said that . Thanks a lot, joe. I apologize. I knew you were here. Austan goolsbee, former council of economic advisers. And chairman and economics professor at the Chicago School of business and Strategic Partner at our friend wolfys firm. Welcome, one and all. You want to go around the horn again . Is that what you want me to do . I was joking earlier, mark. About what . Yesterday and today. 2 215 . Thats the big surprise number . All the economists mailed it in. They need a number. 215. Theres actually truth to that. I know they didnt do any work on this. Heres the thing whats yours come up with . 233. See, they didnt do the work. I did not, mark. You know i have a model. I dont want to be 215. My error rate without regard to sign is plus or minus 50,000 over the last five years. And rounding, though its exactly 50. Your adp was weak . It was weak. So where are you on this . 215. [ laughter ] where are you going on vacation . Hes already there. Job growth has been remarkably stable. Some months a little lower. Some a little higher. You have that shift down. You were 260 last year. Now youre running a little bit over two right now. The interesting question is to think about how much you really need to soak up slack in the economy. And it may be as low as 100. So that question, right . Becomes what is sufficient for the fed to hike, if you get there. And i think if the fed were honest and not political, the number could be as low as 150. Whats your number, 215 . No. 214. 5 . Our number is 205. Were looking for 205, because we do believe there is as the Unemployment Rate starts to fall, you know, youre going to see the numbers coming in lower and lower. Theres less slack in the labor market. But i think the point that steve made was very important, that the fed changed their language. The word some was put into their statement. They need to see some improvement and that indeed does lower the bar. So were at 205, which is right near the threemonth moving average, which is about 208. And we think its likely that the fed does indeed go in september. You need 100 k per month. So if youre at 200k, youre double the pace. I just made that number up. Thats why theres so much pressure on the fed. Austan, youre not here. What do you mean im not here . Youre not on set, so im going to kevin first. If you cant make the effort its also fair because austans model is my choice minus 10,000, isnt it, austan . I just have to correct for kevins bias. But other than that, pretty accurate. But again, i didnt just make it up. I ran the model. And my model said 183 and i rounded it to 180. I think weve got to pause. Its not just the economists that are pausing. But the thing that i see, i think, is that people, especially capital formation, is holding off, waiting to see what the fed does. Theres just kind of superstition that when the fed move goes, the whole world might fall apart. So i think we have to get across that threshold. Consumption is fine, but for the other parts of growth to pick up. I think the fed gets it. I could see this number being weak and that that might actually accelerate the chance that the fed moves in september because they recognize they need to get moving, get people past this superstitious moment, where if we go over the threshold, the world might end. I think mark and i still expect a strong second half. Weve been talking about it all year. But right now, it looks like theres a pause. So where are you . Im low. I was at 202. If i knew kevin was going to be lower than me, i i would have lowered my number. But the thing is, were waiting for the world to fall apart. The worlds already falling apart. I mean, look at china, look at europe. Were running out of people to hire in the United States and the growth rate. We whiffed on the gdp. We whipped on inflation. We may very well whiff on jobs. So why is the fed itching to get back to normal . I just think theres not much loss to wait another two months to figure out whether the conditions are going to get worse. Why blow your credibility in the form of were going to announce a rate increase and might have to pull a sweden and reverse it in a few months. But also, whats the difference between now and two months from now . Youll still have problems in china and europe. And come up with something to say well, why didnt we wait another two months . Well, they should wait until conditions warrant. Thats exactly what ive been saying. We have been getting together in this very panel. And the forecast that were going to have massive job growth and massive gdp growth starting in six months have been proven wrong again and again and again. Thats not right, austan. 200k is massive job growth. Thats double the pace you need to absorb the working age population. I would say thats modest growth. Its growth. Its improvement. But its modest. Theres an important point that goes along with this. Because its kind of back and forth on ism numbers, on average Hourly Earnings, thats the reason that the u. S. Equity market has really struggled this year. There hasnt been a decisive break to the upside nor the downside, which is why its been such an unsatisfying year. Why did the market double the previous . We didnt have it either. Youre not getting any benefits from zero, so you might as well go up. The other issue you had earnings growth. And you also had quantitative easing. So now you stop qe in the u. S. You had a struggling equity market this year, although there have been some things to do in terms of style bias. Right. Its been dollar and oil, the only thing not growing. But thats also why youve had very low volatility. This is the first year that youve not had a move in the vix. Even with greece and china, the vix only went up from a trough to a peak. The market can climb a wall of worry if it has something to hang on to and it can be Economic Growth, it can be earnings. Really over the last several years, its been both. Theres room for them to move down. If you have the positive Economic Growth but flattish earnings, theres a way to invest. I want to go back to a point austin was making. You were saying you dont think theres been enough job growth. Im looking up stuff on the internet. Democrats pointing out that there have been 12. 8 million private sector jobs created in the last 64 months. They are saying this is a huge point of pride. This is something that shows that jobs are here and that theyve done a good job. Are you saying that they havent . Austan . Yeah, youre the man. I think as ive said many times, weve made substantial progress. The economy has grown at a modest pace. Not blockbuster. Not weve turned the corner and everythings back to normal. But not bad. If you watch the Republican Debate last night, you would have thought we were in the second great depression. It hasnt been either of those things. Weve had slow, steady progress. Not any faster than that. How far below employment levels are we still, kevin . 12. 8 . Yeah, for employment to population. They increase the tax on capital. But yet the private economy has grown 3 per annum. Youre reaping your rewards for this crappy policy, austan. Like the old bugs bunny cartoon where the guy brings the dog in that can walk and talk. Going in the ditch. Now im driving it out. We always end up two and a half. Private sector gdp talk to him. Strip out government. 3 per annum is about as you know, thats great. Thats a call. A lot of quick action government since the stimulus. Yeah, you need the stimulus because you had 10 unemployment and the economy was falling apart. What place is this recovery . Lets look at all the recoveries. What place is this recovery . Deadlast. I dont know what it is. But its not deadlast. And the bigger question, it doesnt call for youre three million above the 2000 employment level. Three million jobs over. We are going to continue this conversation, but when we come back, corporations are looking to beef up their Cyber Defense systems. The problem is finding cyber specialists. Our Mary Thompson takes a look at where the jobs are right after this. Plus, the jobs report just a few minutes away. Well have more from our Panel Including predictions. Well talk about other stuff, too. Squawk box will be right back. And why stop what youre doing to find a bathroom . With cialis for daily use, you dont have to plan around either. Its the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be Ready Anytime the moment is right. Plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. Tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. Do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. Do not drink alcohol in excess. Side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. To avoid longterm injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. If you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. Why pause the moment . Ask your doctor about cialis for daily use. For a free 30tablet trial go to cialis. Com Cyber Attacks pretty much a daily occurrence for most corporations, with hackers seeks ways to access their valuable data, companies are beefing up their Cyber Defenses. That is generating big demand for budding and established Cyber Warriors. Mary thompson has more from herndon, virginia, in our latest installment of where the jobs are. Mary, good morning. Reporter good morning to you, becky. First of all, lets ask the question, how great is demand for Cyber Warriors . Well, michael brown, who is the ceo of semantec estimates that by 2019 there will be six million Cyber Security jobs around the globe. The problem is there are only going to be four and a half Million People with the skills to fill them. So filling that gap is going to take years, that according to the ceo of the job Analytics Firm Burning Glass technology. Thats because a cyber specialist needs both technical chops and expertise in the industry that they work for such as health care or defense. 84 of Cyber Security jobs require a college degree. 70 of them acquire mull approximately years of experience. In a field that really didnt exist multiple years ago. So as a result, were seeing a real gap in the amount of talent that there is to fill these jobs. Now, another hurdle cyber specialists need to clear, certain certifications, some of which can be achieved only with three to five years experience. Positions for cyber jobs are up 90 in the last five years, fueled by demand from Financial Health care and retail firms. Postings for these jobs growing at three times the rate for other i. T. Positions, and as you might imagine, that means that these people can command a premium when it comes to salary. On average, they make 84,000 a year, thats 9 more than your typical i. T. Position. Now, speak to anyone at semantech and theyll tell you how competitive it is to recruit the proper people for these jobs. So coming up on squawk on the street, well tell you about a program that they have developed to create a pipeline of workers that can fill these Cyber Security jobs. Back to you. Okay, mary. Like that shot. Coming up, final predictions from our panel, and the number of the month, will it set the stage for the fed to raise rates in september . The numbers and reaction are just ahead. Stay tuned. No students ever been the king of the campus on day one. But youre armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2in1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so youre walking the halls with varsity level swagger. Thats what we call that new gear feeling. You left this on the bus. Get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. Office depot officemax. Gear up for school. Gear up for great. What if there were only one kind of dog . Then it would be easy to know everything about that one breed. But in fact, there are over three hundred breeds of dogs. Because no one can be an expert in every one. An app powered by ibm watson will help vets tap Specialized Knowledge in the cloud for every breed. And whatever else walks, flies or slithers through the door. Ibm watson is working to make medicine smarter every day. Theres a difference when you trade with fidelity. One you wont find anywhere else. Onesecond trade execution. Guaranteed. Did you see it . In one second, he made a trade, we looked for the best price, and the trade went through. Do the other guys guarantee that . Didnt think so. Open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. Welcome back. The last few minutes before the jobs number hits. Our panel is barbara reinhard, kevin hassett, mark zandi, austan goolsbee, Rick Santelli is standing by, steve is here, and rick, you havent weighed in yet on what you think the market is anticipating and what it does, lets say the number comes in at under 200,000. What happens to the market then . I think theres a chance it could come out under 200,000. Energy jobs were kind of ignored and nobody really helped them. But they motivated much of the job creation. The Energy Sector has true you know, true free market principles, supply, demand. Its doing what markets are supposed to. I think it affects employment, but thats okay. Rather have that than puppeteers. I do think in general that Interest Rates are going to be pressured down, because the Global Economy has issues. The chinese dont spend that kind of money for no reason at all. I think the fed has to raise rates. If for no other reason than coming down the pipe is going to be many reasons potentially to need to bring more accommodation, and what are they going to do for an encore performance at zero . Bring negative rates to the United States of america . No way. What happens today . Whats the knee jerk reaction in the markets if the number is, lets say, 250,000 . If the number is low, the equity guys are going to get the po pompoms out and start cheering. Does that mean if the number is strong you think the mark sells off into that . Yes, and i dont think fed fund futures can tell you percentages at this point, but if they are lower on the day, an hour after the numbers out, that will be your interpretation. What will be associated with stronger data and the investors will be a little nervous about the fed. It doesnt mean their nervousness is wellfounded, but were all just pavlivian dogs and their notion is to make the market dance, dance, dance. Definitely cant raise any time soon. Pav were still cleaning up the mess. Which administration was that, austan . Lincoln. It was lincoln. Lincoln . Was lincoln a republican . No, that was a mistake, i think. I think the democrats have adopted him. Are you gone, austan . No, im not gone. Im just listening. Which mess are we still cleaning up, causing us to be below plan with this recovery . Whose mess was that . 1913, start there. I didnt blame any president. You filled that in. It was a bubble popping. Weve got to shift what the economy is doing. Thats the mess thats got to be cleaned up. But definitely not time to go above zero, even though were 5. 4 unemployment and mark zandi says weve been growing at 3 . If you whiff on gdp and inflation and jobs, why are you raising rates . Thats my question. You got my number wrong. Im 205 not 250. It would be more interesting if you were at 250. Rick, i was trying to get you to yell at austan. I guess that only works with leasing. No, no, no. Come on, be nice to him. All right, everybody. Hold on. These predictions are in at this point. Now it is time to see which panel member may actually hit the number. July jobs report is on the other side of this break. Once again, take a look at the futures before we get the number. Market down by about 20 points for the dow. Down by about 2. 5 points for the s p. Becom squawk box will be right back. No students ever been the king of the campus on day one. But youre armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2in1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so youre walking the halls with varsity level swagger. Thats what we call that new gear feeling. You left this on the bus. Get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. Office depot officemax. Gear up for school. Gear up for great. Welcome back, everybody. We are just a few seconds away from the july jobs report. The number that were looking for is 215,000. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 5. 3 . Take a look at whats been happening with the futures as we go into this. All morning long, weve been sitting just around the flat lining because traders are obviously waiting to see what happens with this number. It is important. Hampton pearson is standing by at the Labor Department with those numbers now. Hampton . 215,000, july nonfarm payrolls, increased by 215,000 jobs. The Unemployment Rate is 5. 3 , average Hourly Earnings increased 0. 2 . Right in line with consensus, private sector adding 205,000 jobs. May and june revisions, an additional 14,000 jobs over the twomonth period than what had been previously reported. Job gains, retail, plus 36,000. Health care up 28,000. Professional and Technical Services 27,000. Food services and drinking places, 29,000. Another interesting feature here, manufacturing increased by 15,000 in the month of july. Thats the biggest onemonth gain in that sector since the first of the year. Losses basically mining and logging down 4,000. Temporary help losing just under 9,000 jobs. The labor force Participation Rate remains unchanged at 62. 6 . The total real Unemployment Rate 10. 4 . It is the lowest month since june of 2008. Longterm unemployed, 2. 2 million. 26. 9 of the total unemployed. Back to you. Well, that proves it. That pruf proves that these gu didnt do any work. Theyve never gotten it right. I thought you were going to say the bls is on vacation, joe. Thats so funny. Exactly 215. So the fed has to raise rates. They do . September, theyve got to raise rates. If youre over 200k, average workweek increased. That was one good thing. I mean, double the rate you need for the working age population. I mean, nows the time. The word some improvement. And he didnt have the number one when he was on. Or lockhart didnt know this number, did he . They get a piece of it perhaps on tuesday. Maybe the manufacturing sector, whether or not a governor like powell knows it is unclear to me, but it does go over to the fed. I dont think so. When i was there, it was the night before. They get a piece of the manufacturing report, is my understanding. You get it the night before, right . It will come in in the afternoon sometimes, but you really crunch through the full numbers. And the ch calls the fed and tells him what the number is. Guys, check out the euro in the back. You have the euro down to below 109 right now. And the twoyear now, you have the euro there. Theres the euro right now. It was 109 going in. And the twoyear is a nicelooking el capitan chart from yosemite to 71 to 73. That is baking in, i think, at least a 25 basis point hike. Its been a little bit behind. It was 71 just before the number. And it doesnt seem like a lot. Its not my job to throw to rick, but maybe we should throw to rick to get a feel for whats going on down there. Rick . Fed fund futures have sold off. The short rate side selling off, and all those are giving you a glimpse that in investors minds, maybe theyre actually going to raise rates. Now, whether they do or not, i cant tell you. I dont think anybody truly knows. But the market is assuming that that number, as expected, shot out the double doors is enough to keep the myth at least for now going, that they can raise. And the dollar i know steve pointed to the euro accurately. But the dollar index for sure is only motivated right now by the notion that if youre a currency, you kind of like to put your elbows around higher rates. Whats happening with the dollar and the pound . Theres a bit of a race going on or a question out there. Who goes first . Carney or yellen . Is it ladies first, or does carney do the gentlemanly thing and go first on his own . Down here, they really do think carney is first. My own personal opinion is that this is going to be like you know, theyre going to be looking at each others desk trying to hide what theyre doing. I personally think its going to pingpong back and forth, not on whos more aggressive, but whos going to be using words versus actions. I do think the u. S. Personally, if they go and when they go, i think they will go first. You still think theyre not going . You said the myth. I will stick to my bet of 100 to the charity or choice that we made in 2014. I dont think theyre going. It would be a bet that literally i would just enjoy losing much more than winning. Because i really do think that at some point, it will be nice to look at the markets and the price on these boards and think that it came out of interaction of a group versus somebodys brain in d. C. Or other spots around the world. Do you think they actually raise it at this point . Yeah, i think youve seen almost all the fed governors explain they want to raise rates. They were just itching to find some cover to raise rates. I just hope that they dont either raise them too rapidly or convince the market that theyre going to raise them too rapidly. So i think they probably do raise the rates, but they either background or even say at the press conference they have no intention to raise them again any time at the next meeting, maybe it will be every other meeting. If were running at 200,000 per month and you extrapolate out six to 12 months from now, and theres no reason to believe growth rates are going to slow. So by this time next year, youre at full employment. And the train is still running at a pretty rapid pace. So the odds are now rising pretty quickly that you get into next year, into 2017. Were going to be beyond full employment. I just dont see how we avoid that. The economic train doesnt just go magically from 200k down to 100. Here are the numbers. Those are good numbers for retail, especially outside of the christmas season. And yet all i hear is the story about the weakness of the consumer. Are you telling me the retail employers have it wrong, or is the consumer doing better because theyre hiring people to serve them . If you look at real retail sales, real retail sales are going above trend. I think this myth that the consumer has been dead is not the case. Took maybe a pause or a rest at the beginning of the year, which is somewhat of a surprise. Maybe spending in different places than traditionally. Car sales have been very strong. Restaurant, dining out. Which was a big bit of growth in jobs and also the stronger dollar. So these are things that have hurt. Once going on is the money spending at the gas station, they are going out and spending. Austin says to be careful. Why austin . The reason i think you want to be careful is we had a soso growth number for the gdp in 2014. But we had a blockbuster jobs year. And thats because we had negative productivity. Now, if negative productivity continues, then yes, we will continue to have very strong jobs numbers, even though were not growing that fast. Jobs will slow down. I didnt hear any of this then. Oh come on, rick, yes, you did. Productivity wasnt negative. You were telling everybody the economy was great this is awesome let barbara weigh in here. Theres one other piece that everyones missing. The rest of the world is doing better, not china. But europe is certainly doing better than it was this time last year and that is a fundamental change at the margin. Theres nothing but tail winds. Youre creating a boat load of jobs. Wage growth is if anything is accelerating. Debt about as low as theyve ever been. Consumers have locked in. What happens if productivity kicks back up to something normal . That would be terrific. What kind of Debbie Downer juice is in the water in chicago . It will redo the number. Thats the answer. Redo the number productivity is too low obviously this conversation is running out of steam. Wed like to thank our panel, thank you everybody for coming in today. That number, 215,000, just as expected by economists. 5. 3 for unemployment. Up next, how should you be trading this jobs number . Jim paulsen will be joining us after the break to talk jobs, the economy, and the market losing streak that weve seen recently. Check out the futures in reaction to the jobs number. Market down, doing what rick said he thought it might do. Sell off if the numbers were a good number in line with expectations on concerns that the fed will now go ahead and raise Interest Rates next time around. Dow futures down by about 45 points. The nasdaq down by 16. Squawk box will be right back. Can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready . Can it tell the doctor how long you have to wear this thing . Can it tell the Flight Attendant to please not wake me this time . The answer is yes, it can. So, the question your customers are really asking is, can your business deliver . You have been right that the market would be flat all year. You look at these numbers, and pretty decent numbers. What do you think happens next . Well, i think it certainly puts september in play. Keeps it in play. The real issue for the market is not so much when the fed starts raising rates finally. I think the bigger issue is once they start that process, how fast they have to do it. Even janet yellen has said that. What this really comes down to are factors that surround the pace which the fed is going to have to raise rates. If the market starts to think the fed is behind the curve or if we start to get evidence of some cost pushing pressures as we near full employment, then the start of this process will be more damaging for the stock market. If it is indeed methodical or wellcontrolled, its probably not going to be that big a deal. I lean a little towards the former. Some of the things that i guess im watching here over the next as we start this process, ill be watching the imbedded Inflation Expectations and tips. Id be looking out for the reaction of the bond market itself, what the tenyear and the twoyear are doing. Are they moving faster than the fed wants to move . Id be looking at the dollar. If that rather than goes up as everyone expects, if it starts to come off, that would be concerning. I think commodity prices, which have been beat down so mightily, if they get a bounce in here right at the same time the fed is starting this process, that could be concerning. Theres a lot of ifs. Those are the things that youve been talking about for a while. You arrived at a flat market and youve been right about the economy being stronger than everyone thought. But youve been wrong on commodities. And i dont think on wage push type inflation and wages rising. And were still waiting. And now youre saying the same stuff. That once these commodities do start surging, once the dollar does start weakening, but theres a problem. But its way late for what you were thinking. I agree, joe. I mean, i have. Its been much later than i thought. Right on the market, though, which is all that mattered. Right. I mean, i think the market has been vulnerable, still is. And thats kind of the issue here. Youve got a highly valued market. Youve got a calm sentiment. A need to reset rates whenever that comes. Youve also got an earnings cycle thats very mature already, and already starting to slow down. I think that its that vulnerability then that makes the possibility of reaching full employment and having some issues somewhat concerning as an investor. Youre absolutely right. I thought this would happen much sooner. It hasnt. But i tell you what, if that Unemployment Rate keeps marching towards 5 , its not like the issue is going to go away. And thats the point mark zandi was just making, too. Yeah. You know, i do notice, too, becky, you talk about investment. As this starts to look more like september, you are starting to see more of the cyclical stocks pick up again. In the last few weeks, youve seen the material stocks, even the Energy Stocks do better. The industrial stocks have had a really nice pop. Some of the growth leadership i noticed. The biotechs have started to come off a little bit. I think that signaled a tenure change. Didnt you elect Jesse Ventura . We did. And ive got to admit, joe, that this trump phenomena seems a lot like the jesse phenomena in minnesota. Youve got these two family patriarchs on the left and the right, the bush and the clinton that are stereotypical politicians, and then youve got this guy thats anything but. Thats kind of what happened here in minnesota. No one thought that jesse would ever get elected and he ended up winning. Bowas and all. And then you had around, too. Greg davis was like some wellestablished guy, and the next thing you know, the terminator was so who knows, right . We had the same thing here in minnesota for governorship. Two wellestablished political and then we had Jesse Ventura. I think its happening on the Republican Party as well. Yeah, you hope so. Knowing you. Thanks, paulsen. See you later. Thanks. When we return, bill daly has worked on both wall street and at the white house. Everybodys been in wall street and politics these days. Chief of staff to president obama. Joins us after the break with reaction to last nights debate. I built my business with passion. But i keep it growing by making every dollar count. Thats why i have the spark cash card from capital one. I earn unlimited 2 cash back on everything i buy for my studio. And that unlimited 2 cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business. Thats huge for my bottom line. Whats in your wallet . Everyone loves the picture i posted of you. At t reminds you it can wait. Here is a simple math problem. Two trains leave st. Louis for albuquerque at the same time. Same cargo, same size, same power. Which one arrives first . Hint its not the one on the left. The speedy guy on the right is part of an intelligent system that creates the optimal trip profile for all trains on the line. And the one on the left . Uh, looks like itll be counting cows for awhile. So maybe the same things arent quite the same. Ge software. Get connected. Get insights. Get optimized. By the time Police Arrive on a crime scene, they could have little to go on. A vague description. A single piece of evidence. A partial plate number. With an app from ibm, officers can now access over a billion police documents to find hidden connections, and identify potential suspects. Ibm analytics helps one hundred thousand officers work smarter every day. Welcome back, everybody. For more reaction to last nights debate, we are joined by bill daily. Hes the former chief of staff under president clinton. Welcome. Thank you. Well talk about the jobs report. It came in where we were expecting. Where do you think this means in terms of where we stand in the economy and what the fed is going to do next . Is it going to be something they end up raising rates next month . I think they will. I think theres plenty of evidence for them to do that. I think the whole question becomes soon how high and whether it will set a pattern. Will they continue to do that on a quickened pace as your former guest talked about. I think it would be hard for them not to take action at this point and i know the fed is nonpolitical and they dont make decisions but remember, were getting into a heated Political Year next year. So any action they do, like it or not, theyre going to fall into this political madness that goes on as we get into serious primary fights and into a general election. If i was there, id say put your toe in the water and begin to do this so all of a sudden youre not doing it later in the year closer to the elections and become more political or perceived political. That could be a big problem for the fed. That almost sounds like theyd be doing something political to make it not look political. They cant win but in 92 there was criticism for not lowering rates buduring the bus Hillary Clint clinton thing. There was a cut in rates even before 9 11. If you look at the raw data, i think theres no question they should be raising begins and beginning to do this and do it rather soon. Lets talk about the fun debate. The debate last night. What did you think . I thought it was an entertaining two hours. Maybe im a junkie around the stuff. I thought fox did a hard for me to say, a really good job. I thought their three reporters kept it moves. The type of questions they asked directed at some. They didnt let anyone really filibuster. I thought it moved well. I thought the expected they expected everyone to play their roles. Rubio, he probably made the most points. Had a story to tell in each of his answers. I think bush played the role of the senior tortoise in this race. You say president ial too. Youre such a good guy. Thats why you didnt fit in with chief of staff. You had to get out of there fast. I thought i fit in well. Thats why youre not welcome back. Youre not supposed to say bush. I think there are a lot of people on that stage who may lose to hillary, and on the stage before. The same ones i think. But youre supposed to do the opposite. Because youre a strategist. My problem maybe is that im a little too honest sometimes. Werent you from chicago . Were you in politics there . Yeah. And i think were pretty direct as opposed to a lot of people in washington. At least in chicago if someones going to do it, they do it in the stomach and not in the back like they do in washington. What do you think in terms of trump . He took on some tough questions last night. How did he fair . If i was one of the other candidates, id want to debate a week. I dont think he stands up over any time. I dont. That stick is fun and entertaining. Its like when the gong show was popular but at some point he really has to say you build a wall, take the wall. For 20 2 2,000 miles, how are you going too pay for it . Immigration the pundits have been writing fing about ita long time. The gong show lasts two years. But at some point people will say who can be the next president of the United States. And when people go to vote for president , they do believe thats a serious decision. In a primary or in a general election. How about just wiretapped terrorists, not regular people, and whenever you do want to do that, get a warrant first. How is that going to work . There were ridiculous things said on all quarters last night. When youve got ten different personalities, if everyone is trying to get a slice of the paul, i think im a different republican. Great, but you may be different from most of america. What about christie . I dont think he made points with paul but i dont think he differentiated himself. I thought rubio did. I thought he was powerful in his answers. Calm, cool. I thought he was pretty impressive for the first go round. Bill, love having you here. Have a good one. You too. That does it for us. Have a great weekend, everybody. Its time for squawk on the street. Good friday morning. Im Carl Quintanilla with david faber, and simon hobbs. Jim is off today. The jobs number electrical perfectly in line. A solid 215,000 unemployment at 5. 3 . Does it mean were on track for a september rate hike . Well get to that and more. A tenyear around 2. 22. Oil continues to lag under 45 a