Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20240622

Crude down 21 in july. That makes this the worst month since 2008. As you can see exxon shares down 4. 5 . Chevron down 5 today. Coming up. Labor posted the smallest increase on record in the Second Quarter. They started keeping the data in 1982. We will hear from somebody who predicts a september rate hike is off the table. We found somebody who said it may not be. Our segment which is taking a toll on the consumer. We will hear from Royal Caribbean ceo whose companys stock is hitting an alltime high after beating expectations today. A lot to get toompt lets get to the crude oil, this miserable month. The damaging effects of the oil collapse on earnings. Good afternoon. Let me talk about the settle for crude oil. 4712 to give you perspective. The Second Lowest weekly close that we have seen this year a very bear signal to traders and down 21 on the month. Its worst month since october of 2008 in the heart of the financial crisis. Lets talk about the earnings because traders did not like what they heard from exxon and chevron. Exxon mobil seeing the worst quarterly profit in 13 years seeing charges at chevron triggered by the plunge in oil prices. Exxon noted higher Profit Margins but not high enough. Exxon making the move to conserve cash. A lot of investors are taking this as a sign. Cost cuts continue on both ends both exxon and chevron taking capx down year over Year Spending less on projects. What does this mean for oil prices . Traders think the companies are letting us know they are forecasting that they dont think the second half of the year is good for the pricing environment. What we are looking at next 43. 46 the year to date low this year and thats the resistance level that traders are watching. If we breach that for some reason and go through that point we could see the lows that we saw in 2009. So very significant action for oil. How much do people think this is going to spur consolidation across the space and how much more pressure could that put on layoffs . It is interesting because there had been rumors that there will be more consolidation but all eyes on the potential merger and a lot of people are becoming weary thinking that that may not go through. Some of these consolidation theories are difficult when you try to put them into practice. We may see things stay the way they are. If it gets materially worse there may be a need to consolidate. Where there is a will there is a way. I cant wait to hear the answer to this. What does this mean for gasoline prices . You are going to love this bill. Aaa is telling us that we are seeing average prices decline the fastest this month that we have seen since january. What does that mean . Another 15 cents could come off that average price in the month of august. We could see 2 gasoline at some stations or most stations across the country by the end of the year. That is very good news for consumers. Yes, it is. Have a good weekend. Thank you. See you later. Lets talk about whether it could lead to more consolidation. Joining us is former trader who now heads up the daily investment. Good to see you again. Welcome back. Thank you for having me. Clearly the reports from exxon mobil and chevron point to the distress in the industry. Could this lead to consolidation . Will there be companies coming together . I think so but its going to take some time. If you look at the Earnings Results today where they were weak was on the production side. If we are selling cheaper oil we have to sell more of it to meet our revenue targets. A lot of these that is where the opportunity is. Some of these very large Something Like eog have gotten down 30 . At some point some of the big integrateds are going to say maybe we can scoop these. Just reflecting on the commodity space it seems like it happened when prices are rising and rising quickly and they are excited about the prospect of combining to take advantage of those economics. Is it as common to see it on the way down . No. And its a lot like the ones that hedge to the top. Unfortunately, it doesnt, but for a company like chevron or a company like exxon they have so much cash they are not able to grow their production organically. The prices arent high enough. They are going to have to add other transactions or do a big mega merger and at some point some of the larger ones are going to be attractive. Just quickly here as well it almost seems like there is a collective action problem across the industry whereby no single persons interest to pull back on oil production. What happens . If im a u. S. Producer and i want prices to stabilize through supply constraints is there a way to achieve that . Especially when they added five new rigs to the count this week . Sdpl the short answer is no. There needs to be leadership. We did see production start to decline a little bit this week in the weekly data. Like you said its not like somebody is going to be the sack rificial lamb and say i will cut production. We need opec to take the leadership role. I dont think that happens until december earliest. Good to see you again. Thank you for joining us today. Thank you. Joining us now in our Closing Bell Exchange to talk about todays action Peter Anderson and rick santelli. Huge ramifications for the path of normalization by the fed and under scores some big issues at the fed. Yesterday we talked about how we are going to all be so much smarter when the fed actually moves because we can look for ourselves. Was this a response to true data being data dependent . Was it transparent . I say that as important as it is and rates move down seven basis points on a five year note yield when that headline hit at 8 30. And they havent budged. They stayed there all day and now they are drifting even lower in yields. Here is the point. Its about insurance. We are long long long in the tooth on this business cycle, way longer than the average 54 months. A lot has to do with things. In the end they need to consider global slow down possibilities at some point even more than we have in the next 12 to 18 months. If they dont take out an insurance policy by getting rates up a bit so they have room to address future issues especially with 2016 as an Election Year that is reason enough. So we are going to have a lot of information. As i look at markets the traders are not nearly as aggressive on the notion of a september tightening in 2015 in the market response like fed fund futures even though it is hard to get true market signals. Does this breathe new life into some of the yields of the s p . I think what you are going to have is you are going to have the september conversation i think i was always one who thought it was a november or december. I still think that is going to be the case. I think they have to do something. In the meantime i think you are going to see this rush back into kind of the high quality dividend plays, brings that safety play again. People are going to be once more concerned about where the equity market is going to go. Is it going to come under pressure . And that is where they are going to find it. We talked earlier about the decline in oil and the problems in the oil patch right now. Everybody agrees that it makes these stocks that much cheaper. You are not ready to buy yet, are you . I am not. I have been out of energy for almost a year now and im glad i have been. I continue to be. I think anybody thats sitting on Energy Stocks right now is literally standing on a trap door. This is not over yet. In terms of consolidation normally i like to see consolidation out of strength not out of weakness. Getting financing for consolidation when you think of getting bank loans bankers like to see an upward trend, not a downward trend. I dont think there is going to be consolidation. Maybe there may be forced consoldition but i think we have a ways to go here. I would suggest staying on the sidelines unless you are a short player. How would you know it is over then . What has to happen for you to start buying . Well, one of the things i look at i think i mentioned this earlier is im a big fan of the high yield market the junk bond market. I have an index of 100 stocks that also have high yield issuance out there. And every month i look to see where the cunary in the coal mine is which are the high yield prices. I think those are the ones to react first to strengthening conditions. And all year they have been out of 100 almost all of them frankly, 96 to 98 of them have been flickering. Nobody yet on a high yield market is jumping in. That is what i would look for first. The names that are very sensitive to leverage because they jump in with the highest returns. So far nothing has been coming out of that yet. I see the other two nodding. I think they agree with you. Have a great weekend. Thanks. This market has had about a triple digit swing. Right now down 60 points on the dow. A lot of that in the energy space. Take a look at the s p down about four points and nasdaq trying to stay positive. Only up one point. We are just getting started. New data showing wages rising at the slowest pace on record. That is sparking new debate about when the fed rate hike will occur. Could it be december . Will it be delayed because of this . Royal caribbean hitting a 52week high. Look at that up 8. 5 today. The ceo is speaking with us about how he plans to keep profits on course. Female announcer youre on the right track to save big during sleep trains triple choice sale. For a limited time you can choose up to 48 months interestfree financing on a huge selection of tempurpedic models. Or choose to save hundreds on Simmons Beautyrest mattress sets. You can even choose 300 in free gifts with sleep trains most popular Stearns Foster mattresses. The triple choice sale on now at sleep train. Sleep train your ticket to a better nights sleep the ten sectors half are positive half negative today and our friends in the utilities patch with that steep decline in treasury yields pushed utility stocks higher today. This is to figure out what is on traders minds today. Meantime wage growth hitting a new low in data this morning. The employment cost index showing wages only 0. 2 in the Second Quarter. For more on what this means the timing of a potential rate hike lets bring in finance editor jeff cox who is celebrating what we call checkered shirt day here. Thats the chief u. S. Economist at s p ratings. You are of the mind that this delays rate hike further. I go back to something that was said. This was any other time in history we might be talking about whether the fed is easing rather than tightening. You combine them with gdp numbers. These wage numbers show there is no Wage Inflation in the pipeline. I think they go to at least december if not until 2016 depending on what we see friday from nonfarm payrolls report. Beth you agree with that . No, actually. Thats why you are here. Obviously, nobody knows what the fed is going to do except the fed. They have a few more months in plans of determining the decision. We have two more months of job numbers. With the eci numbers the wage reading was disappointing but keep in mind that comes after four quarters of very strong numbers of 6 or higher. There are other wage factors. If you look at the tracker that is showing wage gains climbing higher since 2014 strong readings in june. The rate is now at Still Holding at around sixyear high. I dont think the gamp is over yet. I would point out this number would have been lower were it not for the gains. The private sector was flat. I really think they are looking for little wiggle room here. We are all saying the fed is going in september. If you look at the cme fed tracker they are saying 0 chance in september and very small chance in october and then december is the day when they finally push the button. I think the traders know something that the economists dont. I understand. We dont know what the fed is going to do. It depends on a lot more numbers coming out. We saw in 2013 that the fed wasnt going to do anything. In 2013 they were thinking it would happen. The fed surprised everybody. This fed has shown they would rather be late and tolerate a little more inflation than try to step on so i think they eron the side of going later. One interesting theme that we do know from gdp data and that is that potential growth is weak. Even if they raise rates is it for the wrong reasons . In other words, this economy is growing quicker than speed limit but speed limit is so weak. Thats a long term trend and that is certainly an issue going forward. If you look what is happening keep in mind the First Quarter was revised up. Second quarter you saw nice readings on Consumer Spending and everybody is wondering what is going to happen with exports. Exports did see a rebound. Will it last . We think the dollar is starting to stabilize and the eurozone is starting to get a little normal. We think that will improve. Do you think one quarter point rate rise which they seem to be anxious to get it out of the way. Would that hurt anything . I would hope not. We dont have much of an economy. When the last chapter is written the fed missed an opportunity years ago to start doing this on a gradual basis, waited too long and now are in the box that we like to talk about and it is interesting to see how they get out of the box. Perennial feedback loop. Thank you. Thanks for stopping by. Heading to the close we have 40 minutes left in the trading session with the dow down 51 points. S p down 3. Nasdaq holding on to a small gain. Here is one big green spot on the map today. All aboard Royal Caribbean ceo speaking with us about the companys earnings and a lot more as the stock hits a 52week high. And later our Retail Investor round table. Main Street Investors tell us what they are hot on these days and if apple is still the stock a lot of them are watching, well find out when we come back. Youre driving along, having a perfectly nice day, when out of nowhere a pickup truck slams into your brand new car. One second it wasnt there and the next second. Boom youve had your first accident. Now you have to make your first claim. So you talk to your Insurance Company and. Boom youre blindsided for a second time. They wont give you enough money to replace your brand new car. Dont those people know youre already shaken up . Liberty mutuals new car replacement will pay for the entire value of your car plus depreciation. Call and for drivers with accident forgiveness, Liberty Mutual wont raise your rates due to your first accident. Switch to Liberty Mutual insurance and you could save up to 423 dollars. Call Liberty Mutual for a free quote today at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. Shares of cocacola a day after posting better than expected earnings. Also two bottlers of cocacola products in europe can lower costs according to media reports and benefit cocacola. Simon hobs telling us how Royal Caribbean is making waves. Stock hitting an alltime high earlier after posting better than expected earnings. The Company Making big strides with two new ships out in china. Simon joins us along with a very special guest in an exclusive interview it is ceo richard feign. One of the Founding Fathers of current cruising industry. If you look at the figures it is an 11 cent per share beat. Caribbean is looking strong. Is that the main driver . We are doing pretty well in a lot of places. Caribbean is very strong but asian particularly china is going terrifically, as well. Often times it is about the pricing. I notice the discount policy has been a success for you and now are looking at extending that. Can you talk about the proposition on what difference that has made. Its a big frustration to a lot of customers and travel agents that cruise lines drop prices at the last minute and the loyal customers who booked early find they are paying more than someone who waited to the end. That is not in anyf our interest. We adopted a policy that we wouldnt do any additional discounting in the last 10 20 or 30 days. That seems to be working very well for us. It forces us and the customer to make the decisions earlier and so its fairer across the board and its worked so well that we actually decided to extend it and now we have gone no additional discounting in the last days. And we think thats working well for us. It will establish more integrity in our pricing structure and make our customers happy. I noticed in your Conference Call interesting you mentioned how you are extending your Summer Season in some parts of asia and australia because of the warmer summers. Are you benefitting from Global Warming in your industry . Bill i dont think anybody is benefitting from Global Warming but we are certainly not. This is really a question of carefully selecting itineraries, deployment so we can take into account the fact that the summer in australia is our winter and we can go into a cycle that way. So by deploying to australia, by doing more in Southern China we can actually extend our seasons and that hopefully reduces the season ality. U. S. Congress is getting pretty serious about Corporate Tax reform. Are you hearing proposals that would attract your business to expand and invest in this country . I think nothing that we are hearing anybody talking about would really effect our business today. We are important. We pay taxes around the world. We pay many things. We are a big corporate citizen. We are particularly proud ofrt Economic Impact we have to the destinations that we serve. I am looking forward to that continuing. Before we let you go i want to mark the fact that the stock price has done so well over the past years. Its up 136 . It is more than double. You have created value in that move. For many years you have served customers and worked on what ships should look like and designed them. What have you learned about pleasing shareholders . What do you think if anything is constituting that rise in the share price . What is different . I think we have been very transparent about what we have been trying to do. We have been transparent with longer term goals. We have been transparent about what we are trying to do with our pricing structure and price integrity program. We have been executing against a very clear plan ships are successful and execution is paying off and being rewarded because of it. You are being rewarded for it. Thank you for your time. The ceo of Royal Caribbean. You were supposed to thank me and him. I did that wrong. Mr. Fain how do you say the name of your company . I dont care as long as you buy a cruise. Thats a challenge. Take the wife. Thank you so much. Staying late for us. Time for cnbc news update. Not guilty pleas on charges from Church Shooter dylann roof. His lawyer said he wouldnt enter guilty plea until after decided whether they seek death penalty. Hillary clinton speaking this morning. She took a swipe at jeb bushs right to Rise Campaign saying his policy positions will hurt the progress of africanamericans. Bush took to the stage about an hour later and said that the governments antipoverty programs are failing and touted his education and tax reform policies as governor of florida as evidence that his policies lose prosperity. The nfl and Players Union asked the court for decision on tom bradys deflate gate case. That was brady at practice yesterday. The union is looking for the judge to overturn the leagues fourgame suspension for the patriots quarterback. That is the cnbc news update this hour. We will see whether or not they rule before september. I thought the whole thing was supposed to be settled in mediation. I was looking for more planes flying over with banners. There probably will be more of those i think. I think so too. 30 minutes left in the trading session just hitting lows for the day but its not a whole lot. The dow down about 70 points. The s p down six. Look at that. Up next the top trader tells us what he is watching in the final and most important half hour of the trading day and the month. We are finally getting into august. Meg terrell has a special report on new ebola vaccine that is 100 effective. Wait until you hear which companies are behind it, as well. You focus on making great burgers, or building the best houses in town. Or becoming the next highlyunlikely dotcom superstar. And us, well be right there with you helping with the questions you need answered to get your brand new business started. Were legalzoom and weve already partnered with over a million new Business Owners to do just that. Check us out today to see how you can become one of them. Legalzoom. Legal help is here. So youre a Small Business expert from at t . Yeah, give me a problem and ive got the solution. Well, we have 30 years of customer records. Our cloud can keep them safe and accessible anywhere. My drivers dont have time to fill out forms. Tablets. Keep them all digital. Were looking to double our deliveries. Our fleet apps will find the fastest route. Oh, and your boysenberyy apple scones smell about done. Ahh, youre good. I like to bake. With at t get up to 400 dollars in total savings on tools to manage your business. Major averages off the lows of the session. Havent seen a lot of selling in the equities. The dow down about 60 points at the moment. You can see the s p down almost five points and the nasdaq down just two. Western union higher after raising its earnings forecast and posting better than expected profits. The Worlds Largest Money Transfer company said online sales jumped by 19 in the latest quarter. Thank you very much. Heading into the last half hour of the trading session for the day and for the month what should we be watching for. You want to watch the weakness in the dow. Its got to be substantial although they have been trading. We need to trade down maybe 70 points or so. Now you look for the second down month. On a technical level that is what you want to be cognizant of. Its a late trade volume day. I feel like a lot are not selling out of the market right now. We are above the 50day moving average. 2,100 is the level to watch there. Remember we have been talking about greece for how long now . Unless i am wrong i believe the markets are reopening on monday. People have been using greek etf to trade it as a proxy. That has been down. Lets see if maybe that is a callus for a little pressure. You think the reopening of greeces markets can bring them back. Its been china we have been worried about. Is it going to be that set of concerns that dominates . I think today is all fed. Today is all fed. Its all dollar. Its all gold and treasuries. If the fed has no real catalyst if wage growth is anemic where is it coming from . Where is the catalyst . All eyes are on the dollar trade because fed is grasping at straws. Thank you so much. Thank you. As we wind down yet another month on wall street this is the time we like to check in on how main street views the market. We call it our Retail Investor round table. Joining it folks just like you. Wayne smalls is an engineer. We have demonhicks. And we have michael, you are the ceo of the lion fund which is a student fund. You put in your own money and see what you can make of it. Thats the gist of it. We are doing pretty good. We 2011 a beat. 2014 was probably in line. 2015 we are a little down. We are up. Did you bet big on energy . We got out of halliburton. We had a stay before oil collapse. We are very happy with that. I would imagine. What is it that led you to have such a tough year . What do you see as prospects for the second half . For us it is volatility in smaller cap names that we own. For us right now we hold a couple of stocks of rolls royce that we feel are just unjustifybly cheap and should move higher. Rolls royce is up 6 today. Its 800 probably worth 1,200 to 1,300. Wayne, you are all about apple, still. Yes. I still have a position that i have held for over a year. Its a leverage position right . Thats correct. Its up about 40 right now. It was up a little higher when the stock was above 133, but i think i want to keep that position and pair it back in september and look into moving into other apple supply chain or google supply chain firms. Why september . Well the new launch of next version of the iphone is always an exciting period to be a shareholder. I think that we will see some upside as we go into that release. For the suppliers. I am looking through some of your holdings. Looks like you might want to dabble in names like alibaba. I think alibaba is a good pick because of what they are doing against amazon with them going after amazon. I also like the fact that sun trust is moving out into Silicon Valley and starting to fund ipos. Why not apple itself . Apple is a little too pricey for my liking. I have a mantra investing on a budget. I like to check price per share. Can i see. Any of the three of you worried about big Market Correction here . Raise your hand. Anybody . Not now. Not right now. Is this the kind of thing where you take it stock by stock and when you find value you invest and dont worry about the headline risk in the overall market itself . We have a view that markets are between fair and overvalued. Its a tough market but at the same time theres a lot of pessimism in the market and i am not aware of previous market tops with as much pessimism. When it comes to investing in what you know do you use a lot of social media apps . Do you find those names attractive . We have looked at a couple. Facebook we like the story. We have a view that maybe earnings might be better over the next few years, maybe a little more attractive today. Overall not really no. Mr. Apple, do you own an apple watch . I think im going to look at the next version of it but i will certainly have it probably in the next two or three months. Do you think its going to be a big one like tim cook . You have to keep a long term perspective. You will have one yourself in about a year. One of us already has one. She does. Im not it. Well see. Yes, we will. When do you think the fed is going to raise rates . I hate asking that question because who knows . Do you care when the fed is going to raise rates . I do because i think the market panics when the rates are raised. I think that they are looking this september to raise rates. And i think that is whats keeping people more bearish on the market right now. The stocks that i prefer to invest more bullish style so with the feds increasing rates i think that would be a good time for modest investors like myself to get in when everything starts to go down and we can get in at more of the ground level instead of the higher level. I learn a new term and i will use that investing on a budget. Thank you. Nice to see you. Have a good senior season at columb. Thanks for being with us today. Heading to the close we have 20 minutes left in the trading session. We have the s p down four points. And thinking there might not be a swell in volume on the close. It could push us one way or the other. We will get a sense on the state of lending. The ceo of synchrony is celebrating one Year Anniversary as publically trading company. They are credit card issuer. And still ahead a vaccine that has been called a game changer in the fight against ebola. It may be on the way to africa. We will tell you all about it and who will be paying for it. You are watching cnbc. T. This summer, challenge your preconceptions and experience a cadillac for yourself. The 2015 cadillac srx. Lease this from around 339 per month, or purchase with 0 apr financing. Here at the Td Ameritrade trader group, they work all the time. Sup jj . Working hard . Working 24 7 on mobile trader, rated 1 trading app in the app store. It lets you trade stocks options, futures. Even advanced orders. And it offers more charts than a lot of the other competitors do in desktop. You work so late. I guess you dont see your family very much . I see them all the time. Did you finish your derivative pricing model, honey . For all the confidence you need. Td ameritrade. You got this. [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare . Thats a good thing, but it doesnt cover everything. Only about 80 of your part b medical expenses. The rest is up to you. So consider an aarp Medicare Supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare Insurance Company. Like all standardized Medicare Supplement insurance plans they could save you in outofpocket medical costs. Call today to request a free decision guide. With these types of plans, youll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. Plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. Join the millions who have already enrolled in the only Medicare Supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp. And provided by unitedhealthcare Insurance Company, which has over 30 years of experience behind it. With all the good years ahead, look for the experience and commitment to go the distance with you. Call now to request your free decision guide. O0 can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready . Can it tell the doctor how long you have to wear this thing . Can it tell the Flight Attendant to please not wake me this time . The answer is yes, it can. So, the question your customers are really asking is can your business deliver . These markets are under pressure as we look to close out the day and the month. Take a look at haines brand down 9 on disappointing sales. The company reducing the revenue estimate citing lower orders from a major retailer. And now we talk about Synchrony Financial which has been public one year now. Largest provider of private label credit cards went public last year after a split with ge capital. This morning they rang the opening bell. In the one year up 50 . Joining us to talk about it president and ceo margaret king. Thank you for joining us today. What do you attribute the good start Price Performance . I think it is our results. We have had consistent quarters seeing cards take off with consumers. You talked a lot about the consumer today. With our cards they get great discounts and promotions. Why is the credit card business still so lucrative . I think consumers use credit and not cash. Its easy to use a credit card. I think its the promotions and discounts. I was reading that you have a savings and Loan Division that you use the deposit money for the loaning in the credit card business. You are borrower very low rates and lending at a high rate. You dont want the fed to raise rates because it will squeeze your margins . It wont because we actually work our Balance Sheets so that we dont take a lot of Interest Rate risk. We do charge merchants more on the promotions. So we make some of the money back. You have Pricing Power . Are people using credit for the right reasons or wrong reasons . I think consumers are very cautious and be thoughtful. I dont think they are going crazy and still paying off debt which i think is a good thing. Thank you for joining us. Thank you. Ceo Synchrony Financial joining us. Right now we are just off the lows of the session as we head towards the close. A hectic week with earnings. We have had commodity markets. We will get their take on all of this coming up next on closing bell. E to take a pill . And why stop what youre doing to find a bathroom . Cialis for daily use, is the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be Ready Anytime the moment is right. Plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. Tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. Do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. Do not drink alcohol in excess. Side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. To avoid longterm injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. If you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision or any symptoms of an allergic reaction stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. Ask your doctor about cialis for daily use. Insurance coverage has expanded nationally and you may now be covered. Contact your health plan for the latest information. We are closing out month of july with minor minus signs with dow down about 60 points here. Joining us monica from seven capital with us and so is independent Investment Consultant david dars. Oil had its worst month in forever. Gold is down. The dollar is still strong. You like dollar denominated assets. We are long term. These short term gyrations dont change our strategy. I am concerned with what we see with oil because i think it is a Big Reflection with what is happening with the economy. These manufacturing jobs in the last five years have been the strongest within the recovery and as we move those you are going back to seeing low wage Retail Restaurant jobs. For the economy its really a concern. Let me point out you are hearing a lot of applause. Members of the new York City Fire department always very very popular and honored understandably in new york city. They will be ringing the closing bell today. They are making their way up to the gallery to begin that process. There they go and heading upstairs shortly to ring that closing bell. That is what that is all about and that is certainly understandable. What do you like in this market . Kelly, the narrowing leadership of the market i find it of concern that not only is volatility low and will remain low most of the year but the Industry Groups you saw in the journal this week a that the top six stocks represent the gain from the s p 500 and half of the gain for the nasdaq. That is usually the sign of the market running out of steam. That having been said i cannot believe the shift to bearishness 21 bulls, 41 bears in the latest American Association of individual investors poll which is usually a contrary indicator. People are beginning to give up the ghost a little bit. That is worn out by the poor confidence numbers this week. You have the oil down dollar up which has not been the market did not like that earlier this year. Watch you have to see profits. 67 of European Companies have beaten expectations. Long term average is 45 . So european stocks are doing well with that weaker euro and with the weaker oil price which they are a net importer of. So you want to go with european stocks. The industrials and the materials with the s p up 2 for the year industrials are down 4 and materials are down 6 because of the china and emerging markets exposure. Stay away from that for now. August and september are terrible months. The 11th and 12 months not a bad time to take a rest. I was just going to say expectations for Second Quarter earnings for abysmal to begin with. What are your expectations for the rest of the year . At least we are starting to see consumers spend again. We saw a bump in Second Quarter Consumer Spending and the expectation is they are going for long term purchases and buying cars. That could be a bright spot. Again, the weakness in wages concerns me. It tells me that this economy doesnt feel as strong as the jobs numbers we look at every month. That headline is misleading. So well see what happens with earnings but earnings arent translating to a lot of strength for the average person. What is your favorite part of this market . Where do you see the most opportunity . I think there is a lot of opportunity to just ride out what you see. I think it is too volatile to place all the chips on one bet. But i think in general its hard to say. It seems like everyone really only cares about this Economic Data as it matters to rate hikes. That is going to be the biggest predictor of what happens in the second half. That is the big guessing game. Thank you. Have a great weekend and farewell to Jim Rothenberg who passed away suddenly this week. Thanks for mentioning. We will come back with the closing count down for this final trading day in july. After the bell you are investing in the video streaming business. The fcc is having new action that can help others. We will tell you what it is. You are watching cnbc first in Business World wide. 80 of the poor in africa are rural farmers. 96 of them are doing rainfed agriculture. Theyre all competing with each other; theyre all making very low margins making enough to survive but not enough to get out of poverty. So kickstart designs low cost irrigation pumps enabling them to grow high value crops throughout the year so you can make a lot of money. Its all very well to have a whole lot of small innovations but unless we can scale it up enough to where we are talking about millions of farmers, were not going to solve their biggest challenge. This is precisely where the kind of finance that citi is giving us is enabling us to scale up on a much more rapid pace. When we talk to the farmers and ask them whats the most important thing. First of all they say we can feed our families. Secondly, we can send our children to school. Its really that first step that allows them to get out of poverty and most importantly have money left over to plan for the future they want. Isnt it beautiful when things just come together . Build a beautiful website with squarespace. Hi my name is tom. Im raph. My name is anne. Im one of the real live attorneys you can talk to through legalzoom. Dont let unanswered legal questions hold you up, because were here were here and weve got your back. Legalzoom. Legal help is here. So youre a Small Business expert from at t . Yeah, give me a problem and ive got the solution. Well, we have 30 years of customer records. Our cloud can keep them safe and accessible anywhere. My drivers dont have time to fill out forms. Tablets. Keep them all digital. Were looking to double our deliveries. Our fleet apps will find the fastest route. Oh, and your boysenberyy apple scones smell about done. Ahh, youre good. I like to bake. With at t get up to 400 dollars in total savings on tools to manage your business. About three minutes left in the trading session as we close the books on the month of july. Lets see how the equity market did. This is a month long chart of the dow, s p and nasdaq. Best performer was the nasdaq composite for the month up almost 3 . The s p up almost 2 . The dow, the big lagger gaining just a third of a percent in the month of july. Now, the two commodities that we track with the strength of the dollar that got hit very hard this month oil and gold wti crude down 21 in the month of july alone its worst decline since 2008 and gold down 6. 5 . Bob pisani that puts it at a 5. 5 year low. Worst month since june 2013. It is easy to have the nasdaq 100 up when amazon is up. Google is up. Facebook is up 10 . Those three stocks throw in apple up a little bit, those four stocks are 30 of the nasdaq 100. All had a great month. Its great that they did. Remember those are the ones that moved it. This is what happens when you get marblth cap and a few stocks that had massive weightings. What worries me just a little on the other side when we talk about july the market leaders in july social media, Cyber Security all drooping towards the close and some of the names are on the down side. Those smaller names are big ones we talk about that sort of add a lot of beta in the market. Those stocks were starting to droop a little bit. I didnt mention the treasuries but a flattening especially today a dramatic move on the long and lower in terms of yield. The dollar down and the stock market briefly rose. You wonder if it means a delay in the rate hike and what the equity market wants. Is the market fearing a rate increase or will it embrace it . Today the market clearly believed a september rate hike was very unlikely. I have been in the camp one and done enseptember for a while. It looks to me like they want to raise it and they want to do it in a way where they can advertise it. It looks like the evidence is against them at this point. I think the market reflected that today. I think they were quite surprised at these numbers. Let me tell you where we are at. 70 through earnings season. Down 1 on earnings. Down 3 on revenues. I think we are flat for earnings but i dont think that is much of a victory. Now two quarters we are flat on earnings. See you later. By the way, mentioned new york Fire Department ringing closing bell celebrating their 150th anniversary today with that ringing. We honor them greatly. Coming up now lets watch ahead to what is going to happen when the Greek Stock Market opens on monday. The second hour of closing bell with kelly evans and company. Have a great weekend. Thank you. Welcome to closing bell. We are closing out the day and the week of month of july. The dow and s p and nasdaq on the close going out in the ready. Dow down 51 points a lot on the weakness in oil. We had exxon, chevron disappointing in earnings. S p gave up about four points and nasdaq a little less than a poipt point. Joining our panel we have Senior Vice President of investments, our very own sarah. Welcome to all of you. David, i will start with you. There wasnt necessarily a big move in markets one way or the other today. Is this all going to be about oil and china and whats happening there as we enter august . We are entering a period where it will slow down dramatically. I really do believe that we are in the market of the have and have not society. We saw it in technology and in oil and health care and bio tech. You have the winners and you have the rest of the camp. I think there is just a gravitation of money into clear winners. That is going to stay. One thing is for sure. I see the market basically flat lining here in the face of us coming out. There is a lot of money on the sideline. We could be setting up for big second half of the year move. Let me assure viewers that crude oil did not settle at 7. 12 a barrel today. I think we are missing a number on that banner. I like to argue with people and i agree with everything that he said. We are at that timeframe where the market usually sells off a little bit. August through late september timeframe is usually pretty rough. We dont have positive catalyst to look forward to. If you look at the market it has been terrible. The dow is down on the year. We have seen lower lows. We have seen lower highs. So the market is not acting very well. That being said i dont think the fed is going to raise rates this year. You saw the employment cost index numbers. They are not very good. Inflation is not very rampant. I think rates remain low and certain stocks in certain sectors will do very well between now and the end of the year. Coming off of the fed moves . You saw the dollar weakening sharply. After finishing what was a strong month overall for the month of july. And the treasury yield dropped below 220 and hit a 3 week low on the idea that the fed rate hike gets pushed out longer lower for longer on that pretty surprising sort of record low rate on the employment cost. That will be why, next friday we get a jobs report and will be scrutinizing the average Hourly Earnings to make sure that wasnt just a fluke. For those bears and those folks who were saying the fed is not going to move this weir this certainly today was their day. Earlier in the year we were seeing really interesting things. The dollar was going up. Bonds were going up and stocks were going up. That is because money was flowing into the united states. Today this is a more interesting dynamic because Interest Rates were lower. Dollar was lower and stocks were lower. I think there is not a lot of confidence. The sentiment is so bad that i dont think we will see that much of a sell off. This market is more unpopular than trump in mexico. The epicenter of oil prices collapsing here. Stocks are wrapping up a hot month for the broader market. Bob pisani is in the middle of the action and joins us with the details. We had real winners but unfortunately the laggers going into july continue and we have a few more towards the end of the month. Lets take a look at the main winners and the main losers here. The main winners are utilities did really well came back. Consumer staples names came back. They continue to be anything related to materials and energy that are affected by the slow down in some of the big emerging market countries. That was your losers there. There was a big winner in the nasdaq because of four stocks. You have amazon moving up 20 . Google moving up 20 and apple up nicely. Those stocks are almost 30 of the nasdaq 100. It is a good indication that small concentration of very big market cap names can move indexes around. Emerging markets were the big problem. China shanghai down 14 . Some of the etfs were down much more than that. When you get these monsteres down talking about declines and slower economies dragging the commodity market down it hurts everything. If you look at commodities and we talked about this going into the close. Oil down 21 the worst month since october 2008. Copper is down 10 . Was down 11 earlier in the year. Gold down 6 . Thats the worst since june of 2013. All of this weighed on the Global Markets in general. I will tell you what concerns me a little bit more. Going into july we had notable market leaders including social media and Cyber Security stocks all of that leadership drooped and fell down going into the second half of july. Thats a little bit disconcerting. Cyber security may not be big in terms of market cap but we cover them a lot and talk about a lot of the names. Social media the same way. Maybe not huge market caps maybe not necessarily an amazon but its important. When they start drooping other than Something Like a facebook or Something Like that thats a source of concern. So if you ask me the one thing that worries me a little more its a broader increase in the number of leadership stocks that are falling by the way side. The leadership got narrow going into the last week of july. Well see how august does. Everybody keeps talking about august being a down month. August was up last year. A lot of these go by the way side. I wouldnt necessarily write august off. Have a good weekend. Bob pisani you, too. Art cashin saying we did 300 shares in volume on the close. Seeing a pick up but seeing a negative end to the session with the dow down 55. That wraps up the month for us. Can the good times keep rolling for this weeks hottest stocks . We hone in with dominic chu. Our friends took a look at top performers. Lets start off with best performer in the dow. Expect Quarterly Results earlier in the week. Analysts are bullish on the shares. They think more shareholder volume might be unlocked. Pfizer wants to keep an eye on the event that they come to fruition. One of the leaders in the s p 500 the Company Behind home and Building Product companies and brands like delta faucets, shares hit an eight year high and reported stronger earnings earlier this week. Traders will be trafficking in stocks like masco. Also force declines in the overall housing market. Those shares will be a focus. The best perf bio tech stock hit a record high in todays trading after a posted better than expected earnings. Todays 3 gain you can see means just around 4 shy of the average analyst target price from wall street analysts polled. It is getting very close to where analysts think it should be. We will see if the momentum continues or if we get a pit of a pause. Pro subscribers can get more by logging on to cnbc. Com pro. Great stuff. Thanks a lot. Appreciate it. Going back to a remark you made a little while ago you said you think we could be setting up for a melt into the end of the year. What would be the catalyst for stocks moving higher . I think the real catalyst is when the fed does lift off. They may be pushed out to the end of the year. I think that allows investors a little more confidence. I think there is a tremendous amount of money in the sidelines. Every investor i talked to that is the feedback i am getting. People are waiting to set themselves up and jump in. Again, i think there is a lot of stocks that are still very fairly valued. I dont think the market in general is overvalued. We talked about that. I think there is a lot of stocks individually that are overvalued and a tremendous amount of stocks under valued. Do believe we are setting up for a tide of money to come moot the market and does happen when we get certainty about the fact that the feds will act. Everybody wants to know when to sell and nobody wants to know what to buy. In 1999 and 2007 everybody told you what they were buying. They werent asking questions. You look at the American Association of individual Investor Sentiment it is terrible. You look at the hedge funds and the cash positions there is a lot of cash on the sidelines. One other area that could cause this meltup is performance chasing. A lot of managers are down on the year. If you start to see a series of higher highs and higher lows and a little more confidence that comes in rates remain low you could see that push towards the end of the year. Remember that preElection Years are historically the best in the cycle. We havent had that yet. That would mean we would have to concentration the activity but people were saying maybe the strong dollar would be a head wind like the Second Quarter. The discussion we are having now suggests maybe that is not the case. As we were talking about what we learned during the month of july we neglected to mention commodities which were brutally hit. And copper at a sixyear low. It wasnt just oil. Gold had a terrible month. A big question mark is still china and whether authorities can manage whatever is happening in the market and in the economy which we know is slowing. And the other big question is what kind of Monetary Policy we get from around the world and emerging markets. What happened during the month of july is tumultuous time. People moving money from the economies whether china slowing story. Not to mention euro had a bad month because of greece. This helps our market in the long run. Lower commodities doesnt hurt our economy. Lower oil prices helps our economy. It is a sign of weaker demand it could be. And if lower input causes are good but if it means no demand that is an issue. I think the u. S. Is the prettiest horse in the glue factory. We are better off in europe and in china. More confidence about the u. S. Money comes back here. The dollar could stay strong without fed action in the longer run. I want to get out of the glue factory. Thanks a lot. Appreciate it. Be sure to catch more coming up here at 5 00. They are going to be talking about oil. Could oil stocks be going the way of the banks in 2007. Break down where oil is headed next. The fcc handed companies a huge victory when it decided to regulate internet providers like a public utility. Now some of those streaming Companies May be facing new regulations and could have a huge impact on their business. Thats next. And experimental ebola vaccine found to be 100 effective. Is ebola on the verge of elimination . That is coming up on closing bell. More and more, data is visual. In fact, the number of mris has increased by ten percent a year. And a radiologist might view a thousand images to find one tiny abnormality in shape, contrast or movement. Because its so challenging a Research Project is teaching ibm watson to see. In the future, it could help clinicians spot key patterns quickly and precisely. Ibm watson is working to make healthcare smarter every day. We spend a lot of time online around here. But with all this speed from xfinity, its all good. Hey, why dont we do some homework for a change . Gary, you too. Dad. Work stuff. Yes [laughs] lovin the new design konichiwa hirosan. Five minutes. All this speed is very empowering. Check out the new hardware. With the fastest, most reliable inhome wifi, xfinity is perfect for people who need to get a lot done at home. My name is jamir dixon and im a locate and Mark Fieldman for pg e. Most people in the community recognize the blue trucks as pg e. My truck is something new. Its an 811 truck. When you call 811, i come out to your house and i mark out our gas lines and our electric lines to make sure that you dont hit them when youre digging. 811 is a free service. Im passionate about it because every time i go on the street i think about my own kids. Theyre the reason that i want to protect our community and our environment, and if me driving a that truck means that somebody gets to go home safer, then ill drive it every day of the week. Together, were building a better california. The fcc pushing streaming tv regulations that have Companies Like amazon and microsoft pretty worried. This wouldnt apply to streaming as we know it today. Things like netflix this is if more of them decide to do what sonny has tried to do and apple is rumored to try to do which is put out the equivalent of a Cable Service but over the internet where you can plug in and get Something Like linear programming stream. A republican on the fcc talked about this in a speech saying what the fcc is going to consider doing as early as october is invoking some 1992 cable act regulations. One of the things that would do is force the networks to offer their programming to the streaming provider. Says not necessarily, not so fast. The streamers would have to get copy rights for the content before they could show it. That is not as easy as it sounds and it could back fire because there are other regulations that come along with this. They would be forced to do things like perhaps offer Public Access programming, educational programming, emergency broadcasting. You can go down the list that cable providers have to do. He says once the camel gets the nose under the tent who knows what kind of regulations could pop out and that is why big ones are saying not so fast. We are experimenting with this and we dont want regulations just yet. We will have to see what happens in the fall. It is interesting how tech Companies Like other people will be regulated but not themselves. Thanks a lot. Is the fcc unleashing fear and loathing in the valley of streams. Vice president and analyst at mckwaury securities and a trader with keen on the market. Com. I will admit a lot of this stuff makes my head hurt. What is happening now . Is this happening because of the ruling or did this change some of the ruling . What is really at stake here . What is really at stake isnt necessarily negative impact on their bottom line because of this specific rule. Like john said it effects a very small subset of streaming services. The push towards more regulation could cause their cost to increase in the future. We are seeing this happen in jurisdictions around the world. A push towards regulation on streaming services. The city of chicago is making significant efforts to tax streaming services on a municipal level which is a big concern for Companies Like netflix. Is it that big a deal . Might it be a Public Service if they included things like your kid has a snow day . It could be a negative if it lowers flexibility on which they are able to Package Services in a way consumers are demanding. If it means bigger bundles it is probably negative. If it doesnt lower flexibility in which they can perhaps do services it is probably pretty positive. What do you make of this . This isnt being worried about what your kid is going to watch. This is really about government getting involved. Can anybody tell me an industry more heavily regulated that ended up good for the consumer . It never is. If they dont want to do business with all of these streamers they are going to lose business. They are going to lose business for their content providers. The traditional players. So ultimately let the market decide and the more distribution these content providers have like amc networks or the networks they are better off and consumers get more options and means cheaper prices. Regulation never means better deals for consumers. My question to amy is isnt this what area was about . I think some of the issues really are around the broadcast channels of abc, nbc, cbs. Here i think if it means having the bundled become bigger that could hurt them from gaining subscribers. My other question and maybe i will address this to you is amazon is fighting hard on this. They dont do linear tv. Is amazon fighting it because they are worried about what happens next . Is the government going to start regulating Binge Viewing . What happens after we have this big push towards regulation of these types of businesses . This is the first time they have come under the regulation. If a small piece of amazons business Like Streaming Service can come under regulation could similar things be passed Like Services like aws which would be a much bigger concern. The ideal outcome is that to level the player field for everybody you appeal taxes and regulation for everybody but clearly not going to happen and some regulation is in place for a reason when it comes to educational access and supporting local news markets. Does that mean the eventual outcome is level Playing Field applies . Where you are going with this is absolutely right. They are going to say we want to control what your children can see therefore it does need to be regulated. Then they will use that as a spring board for regulation that we dont want and that gives more power to invade rules to unnamed regulators and all of a sudden we are paying a lot more. No surprise this originates in chicago, the king land of taxation and overregulation. And corruption. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. Huge news from the war on ebola an experimental vaccine has shown to be 100 effective. Meg terrell looking at whether this is the game changer. Less than a week away from the first republican primary debate. Donald trump promising to play nice. Will he be able to tone down tax on rivals. That is the question on everyones minds later on closing bell. This summer, challenge your preconceptions and experience a cadillac for yourself. Take advantage of our summer offers. Lease select cts models in stock the longest for around 399 per month. [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare . Thats a good thing, but it doesnt cover everything. Only about 80 of your part b medical expenses. The rest is up to you. So consider an aarp Medicare Supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare Insurance Company. Like all standardized Medicare Supplement insurance plans they could save you in outofpocket medical costs. With these types of plans, youll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. Plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. Join the millions who have already enrolled in the only Medicare Supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp. And provided by unitedhealthcare Insurance Company, which has over 30 years of experience behind it. With all the good years ahead, look for the experience and commitment to go the distance with you. Call now to request your free decision guide. O0 the deadly ebola virus may have met its match. The details of what appear to be a promising vaccine to wipe it out. It would prevent it if we see other outbreaks crop up. We know that they have been testing vaccines in west africa. This is a merck vaccine. It was shown to be 100 effective in preventing cases of ebola. It is something they use to eradicate smallpox in the 1970s. Identifying contacts of people diagnosed with ebola and their contacts and vaccinating them. They identified those folks half the people they gave the vaccine to immediately. The other half they waited three weeks and compared who got ebola after ten days because they wanted to make sure they didnt get people who received the virus before they got vaccinated. They found 16 people in the group that had delayed vaccination came down with ebola. Zero people came down with ebola. That is why they are saying it is 100 effective right now. 4,000 patients were included in this analysis. It is large by that measure, still needs to be borne out in more studies. The problem is this is simmering down in west africa. There arent as many patients getting ebola but it makes it hard to do bigger studies. They decided who got the short straw. I think i would want to be in the earlier test and not later test. Every time you participate some people are making big sacrifices. It is wonderful that they were able to do this for the world. Is there a day in which we are all getting ebola vaccines . Probably not. Ebola doesnt pose a threat to the rest of the world. This is potentially used in high risk areas. How quickly can it get fda approval . The who is talking weeks or months and whether we need more data before authorities weigh in. Once it gets licensed there is the possibility of stock piling. So those are all questions that need to be answered. If this is effective how extraordinary would this be to be able to come up with a vaccine this quickly . People are saying it is unprecedented among governmentscompanies. It took a while after we saw ebola to ramp it up. This is not the one that uses tobacco plant. Thats a treatment for ebola which would be important, as well because people are saying this would crop up again. We dont have a way to treat people who have ebola. Viruses mutate. Has there been discussion on whether this is a risk here . Thats a great question. Before this most recent outbreak they were working on a vaccine for different strains of ebola. Right now the expedited strain that is prevalent here but hope to continue work on a trivalent strain to protect. How expensive . Its unclear. I wrote a story about this about why companies do this when it looks like a not for profit endeavor. We dont exactly know how much it will cost but likely merck will work out the Vaccines Alliance and local governments. Stock went up today a little bit. And new language spiked and initially evened out. All i know is if you show up they ask if you travel to west africa in the last three weeks. Take more to quell those concerns. Promising news on the ebola front. Time for cnbc news update. Here is what is happening at this hour. The coast guard says it plans to suspend at sunset the search for two 14 year old boys from south florida. It has been one week since they disappeared while on a fishing trip off the States Atlantic ocean coast. The search extended as far north as south carolina. U. S. Marine corps general declaring ten Lockheed Martin jets are ready for combat. Its a key milestone for the 391 billion f35 program after years of cost overruns and schedule delays. The husband of a Technology Executive killed when an amtrak train derailed in philadelphia sued the railroad for wrongful death. Rachel jacobs was one of eight people killed. And american pharaoh will run in sundays invitational. Its going to be televised live on nbc. High hopes for him. That is your cnbc news update. I hope we can do it. I hope so too. It would be fun to watch. Thanks very much. Labor costs increase by the lowest amount record. Is slowing wage growth taking a toll on Consumer Spending . The ceo joins us in a moment. And this probably isnt what you picture when you think of summer camp. Coming up an inside look at one camp getting kids the tools to create the next instagram or twitter. Shouldnt they get outside . You are watching cnbc. First in Business World wide. Can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready . Can it tell the doctor how long you have to wear this thing . Can it tell the Flight Attendant to please not wake me this time . The answer is yes, it can. So, the question your customers are really asking is can your business deliver . Here is a look at how we finished the day and the month. The s p was down four and the nasdaq had been in the positive the last hour but with higher volume it did turn slightly negative to 5128. Rubber made hitting fresh 52 week highs. With household brands that you recognize, rubbermaid sharpy the company has a unique take on todays consumer. Joining us now in an exclusive is michael polk the ceo of rubbermaid. How are you . Great. Thank you. We would love to know how is the u. S. Consumer . We reported a very strong set of core sales growth this morning. That is our global number about 70 of revenues in the u. S. Underlying business in the u. S. Is quite healthy. I would say that most of the momentum in our business is driven by the ideas bringing to market as opposed to some positive trend in consumer behavior. I think we are in that slow steady recovery that many have talked about in terms of overall consumer attitudes. We talk about innovation and obvious Like Technology spaces. I am going to read some products that i understand are among your new ones to market. Rotating car seats, pens one handed bar clamp deck accessory. How much of your budget are you spending . We made an investment a few years back probably about two years ago in strengthening capabilities with respect to Innovation Development in marketing. And we put a fair amount of money into that capability. Our innovation funneled value has nearly doubled since 2013 as a result of the investment in the new capabilities. And we have tested over the last five quarters 750 new product concepts that are increasingly moving from concept to product. So we are beginning to see the impact of that investment hitting the market and that investment capabilities when coupled with a significant step up in advertising and promotion investment is yielding the gross benefits we reported. A lot of people were looking at the writing unit and skepticism. The fear that millennials arent going to use pens. What are you have learned about the future of pens and sharpies . We are a big believer in the writing category. We are largest writing Instrument Company in the world with brands like paper mate prisma color, mr. Sketch. We have parker. We have a drafting instrument business. We have the best writing portfolio in the world. We are the leader globally so we believe in the writing category. The category is growing units and dollars in the developed world. The real story in the category will be the movement of people out of poverty into the middle class in the emerging markets and they are with that Economic Development and social Development Comes access to education systems. Reality of writing business is it is right in the middle of that mega trend. We expect the writing growth to be quite vibrant for some time to come. Even in the digital world. We were talking earlier about how this stock market has had winners and losers. One of the things that winners have had in common is real businesses. They are not buying back stock to generate earnings. They are not doing Financial Engineering buyouts. Your Company Seems to have products. You have done a good job developing products. My question is are you somewhat recession proof with your product mix . We have a saying in the company that ideas trump the macros. Marketers need to do their job in feeding our commercial operations with great ideas that bring value added propositions to consumers. And when you do that you are able to grow and able to grow profitably because those value propositions can command more premium prices. Even in tough macrotimes. We are concerned about pricing in the goodies hair band segment. If you can introduce competition. We are relaunching the brand so you see a whole new look. I will make sure you get the products. I want metallingc. New innovation means higher pricing. Thank you so much. Ceo of newel rubbermaid. The donald is dominating the polls. Meet the presss chuck todd joins us on what it means. And then earnings earnings. Next week is another big one. We will bring you key factors to watch. You are watching cnbc, first in Business World wide. Random . No its all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3 12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. This happens every third tuesday. We have Pattern Recognition Technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. Theres no way to predict that. For all the confidence you need. Td ameritrade. You got this. Welcome back. Puerto rico could be the latest territory to default on its debt. If you think you wont be effected you could be wrong. Kate kelly is here with the details. A handful of puerto ricos borrowers have debt payments due on saturday. One of them called Public Finance corporation appears likely to not pay what it owes. It would be the first concrete evidence of the problem mainly that the island is overburdened by 72 billion in collective debt that it cannot pay. Shortly after the comments puerto ricos borrowers did pay off 2 billion in Debt Payment Service owed at the time raising questions about whether the words were political posturing. Then the corporation didnt receive necessary funds transfer rendering it unable to make good on Interest Payments tomorrow. Puerto rican paper trading off on developments and readying themselves to declare default as early as saturday although couple of days grace period involved. News that the Government Development bank which is the parent entity of the Public Finance agency will pay its own 169 million that it owes. Thats a little bit of Silver Lining to an otherwise murky picture. Puerto Rico Holdings are concentrated in portfolios. What should investors do about this . I think the bond market particularly the high yield market is a potential time bomb out there. We have seen a lot of high yield debt in the coal space and then energy space and now puerto rican bonds. A lot of people own the bonds. I think there is going to be defaults particularly in the energy space. Unless they let them declare chapter 9. He is in support of that there has been legislation introduced introduced. Sort of an arbitrary date. I dont have a strong position but everyone i have talked to in general the consensus seems to be this is not impossible but probably a long shot but that is just reflecting my reporting. I dont think that will save these folks this weekend from entering into default if that is the direction we are headed. We are less than a week away from republican debate. And donald trump is still leading the pack in the polls. What will this mean for the first debate of the 2016 election cycle. Chuck todd joins us now with his take. Especially given the number of candidates, this is going to be the donald show isnt it . It is hard to imagine how it is not the donald show. Number one, the way fox is going to arrange the stage they are going to do it so that the people polling the highest will be center stage. So look at it visually you have donald trump in the center. To his immediate right or left will be Julia Boorstin and scott walker on the other side. Three front runners front and center. The visual display will make him front and center let alone it feels as if he has defined the campaign over the last six weeks and its hard to imagine how this debate isnt about either trump himself or the way candidates handle trump. I have a question for you. He touched off a nerve with this issue about illegal immigration whether you agree with him or not there are crimes being committed by Illegal Immigrants but probably not anywhere near the degree he suggested. That being said he shot up in the polls and stayed higher in the polls. What is the other republicans response to this and are we hearing more about this from both sides of the aisle . I had a republican pollster tell me if we in the media had given any candidate 12 days of saturation coverage and it was only on that candidate railing about immigration that he would guarantee you would see the same numbers, that there is a segment of the republican electorate that is animated on the issue and has been animated for ten years now. I had pat buchanan on last week. He reminded me he was railing about this in 1992 and that got him a bunch of 20 to start off with. He built upon that. This is an issue that very much animates a part of the republican base. It is going nowhere. I think it is not going away. So the question is i think the other candidate they are speaking on the issue of trepidation. Julia boorstin jeb bush is thinking what are the words going to sound like when repeated when im trying to carry states of florida, colorado and nevada. Not just the republican candidates but the Republican Party itself how serious is that independent threat at this point by donald trump and how much is it actually a threat for the republicans . Its a real the Republican Party worries about it. Leaders in the party worry about it because if he did get on the ballot and he could even if he is getting 5 he could flip an arizona to the democrats, a texas may become more competitive, georgia some states have been sort of not as solidly red as they used to where it wouldnt take much. I spent a lot of time with some of trumps folks recently. I think he knows he cant win the presidency running independent so he seems to be pretty serious about going the republican route or nowhere else. We have to go. If you had to pick a dark horse who emerges victorious who would it be . I guess it would be im always intrigued what rand paul might have to say. I think you look at rand paul and ted cruz. They have lost some of their populous luster to trump. Thanks for joining us. Appreciate it. We know you are talking a lot about the debates this weekend. We are less than a week away from the first gop debate. Chuck and his panel of experts discuss the wide open field. You wont want to miss it. Forget the bug juice. Teens are turning in their typical summer camp experience for a head start in entrepreneurship. We get a behind the scenes look when we come right back. Welcome back. Summer camp means arts and crafts and swimming in a lake to most kids. But now some middle and High School Students are choosing to get a jump on business instead. Kate rogers has that story for us now. Hi, kate. Hi kelly. Thats right. Well, not many kids would want to spend their last few weeks of Summer Vacation holed up in a classroom. But if you want to become the next generation Mark Zuckerberg its probably worth your while. And thats the case with expo startup which is a twoweek intenseive program for kids who have big ideas to learn how to market themselves, network, pitch to investors and more. Now, this years class of eighth, ninth, and tenthgraders come from all over the world as far as hong kong and dubai. Were letting them be kids but theyre also cooperating and collaborating together. Theyre meeting speakers from industry. Theyre going to places like google and forrester labs. Theyre learning about innovation. Theyre learning to write business plans. Theyre learning to pitch their ideas. Now, they actually did pitch those ideas earlier today at math challenge which is a local accelerator program. Where im come toug live from. They got feedback from judges after working on their Business Ideas for about two weeks. And we should note that the explo brand has quite a few famous faces attached to. Kevin sistrum from instagram attended several of their events as a kid. Cnbc disruptor 50 list this year. Jonah peretti from buzzfeed was a former counselor as a kid. And 12 of their lum nye land on various forbes 30 under 30 lists this year alone. Who knows . Maybe one of these kids will be following in their footsteps soon. This sounds like the new harvard. Is it exclusive . Is it expensive to get in . Its certainly expensive. They pay over 4,000 for the twoweek program, and the kids actually have to apply. Its selective. They write essays to get in. And like elliott said during the sound bite theyre really kids who are thinking out of the box. So theyre a select special group of kids. Do you guys do summer cam s p. I went to summer camp my whole life and i was glad to not have to do any science projects or essays and just be a kid and socialize normally. But then again, i didnt found a tech company. I was in baseball and basketball. But i think its a great idea. We have so much financial illiteracy in this country and if you can get kids at least thinking about that earlier theyre going to be they can go to college. Well, yeah, but these kids are obviously very interested in this. And look at the Networking Opportunities they have with all the visiting guests there. Look if they strike it rich early, then they can go live on a Desert Island maybe get that summer camp experience. Kate, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. Kate did you go to summer camp . I did. I went to dance camp my whole life. I was a tap dancer. So i used to teach at camp. Thats awesome. You learn things about people. Thanks a lot, kate. Good to see you. Have a good weekend. Kate rogers. Earnings season marches on next week. Taps on we should say. We get reports from aig, disney tesla, and fitbits first report since going public. Well bring you a preview of those next. Were back in two. Youre watching cnbc, first in Business Worldwide. The 2015 cadillac srx. Lease this from around 339 per month, or purchase with 0 apr financing. Im only in my 60s. Ive got a nice long life ahead. Big plans. So when i found out medicare doesnt pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. Then i got a Medicare Supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if youre eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80 of your part b medical expenses. The rest is up to you. Call now and find out about an aarp Medicare Supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare Insurance Company. Like all standardized Medicare Supplement insurance plans it helps pick up some of what medicare doesnt pay. And could save you in outofpocket medical costs. To me, relationships matter. Ive been with my doctor for 12 years. Now i know ill be able to stick with him. [ male announcer ] with these types of plans, youll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. Plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. So dont wait. Call now and request this free decision guide to help you better understand medicare. And which aarp Medicare Supplement plan might be best for you. Theres a wide range to choose from. We love to travel and theres so much more to see. So we found a plan that can travel with us. Anywhere in the country. [ male announcer ] join the millions of people who have already enrolled in the only Medicare Supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp an Organization Serving the needs of people 50 and over for generations. Remember, all Medicare Supplement insurance plans help cover what medicare doesnt pay. And could save you in outofcket medical costs. Call now to request your free decision guide. And learn more about the kinds of plans that will be here for you now and down the road. I have a lifetime of experience. So i know how important that is. Health cares been a great sector all year. Youre going to want to watch that sector as well. Sara. Im always watching the consumer one as well. Wednesday keurig Green Mountains going to be interesting because thats a stock thats been pummeled so far this year. It went from sort of first to last in terms of the runup in the s p. Last year it was number one. This year it lost almost half of its value. Well see what that company has to say and has to report. Had lower guidance already once. And then weve got a jobs day on friday which is i know the earnings are certainly going to be important but thats going to be very interesting especially the wage growth component. When you look at the fed everybodys now mixed on whether theres going to be a september hike. Probably not. But what if we get a blowout jobs number and the last two unemployment readings have really been pretty good. We could see a good number there on friday. At the same time to tie it all together, consumer confidence. There was a report that dropped ten points last month, had people going wait a minute, is the consumer in as good shape as we thought . Maybe it was some of the negative headlines about greece and china but it usually doesnt take down such a broad index those kind of specific financial concerns. Thats something that could tie this all together perhaps to the down side. Right. So well keep an eye on it. Within the gdp report its worth noting Consumer Spending in the Second Quarter was a little better, came in around 3 . That was good. But the signals have certainly been mixed. A company like Procter Gamble which is the biggest Consumer Company is struggling right now, whether its its own problems. Youve also got a macro situation that isnt so friendly when it comes to the consumer. Even there its more of a rifle approach than a shotgun approach. Youre seeing certain areas not do so well and then Home Improvement type stores that are doing extremely well. So its very scattered and bifurcated. Yeah. Good word. If you want to talk about trends in this market ubers valuation today dow jones reporting hit 51 billion in its latest funding round. It also just successfully fended off regulatory efforts here in new york city. Jim, at this point that valuation raises a couple of questions. One or points i suppose. One is, a, its just a huge success. B, why does uber still need to keep raising all this money privately . Why doesnt it go public . And c, how much pressure is there now for it to go public and maybe actualize some of the promises made to these investors . Theyre still trying to expand but theyre talking about going into india. Theyre talking about expanding globally. The second reason they need to raise money is because theyre losing money. Theyre still not profitable yet. Im always interested in these companies that have increased, increased, increased valuations. Theyre not profitable. Amazon did that for years and years and years. And the stocks been just fine. So maybe it works. But i think thats why they need to raise money. And its to the whole unicorn idea. Do you realize this puts uber at the same size as general moat snrz its now bigger than netflix. Its bigger than 82 of s p 500 companies. Incredible. And a story that has a lot of traders down here watching very closely. Thanks so much guys. Good luck. Closing bell this hour. Fast money coming up in moments. Whats on tap . Weve got the trade tracking like banks in 2007. Yeah i saw a little foreboding about this earlier. No further delay. Got to get to this one. Straight over to you guys. Have a great weekend, kelly. Thanks so much. Live from the nasdaq marketsite overlooking new york citys times square im melissa lee. Our traders on the decemberric tim seymour, david seaburg, brian kelly and guy adami. Tonight on fast were firing up the grill with two food stocks seeing smoking hot moves. New high from mcdonalds and doubledigit percent gain from shake shack. Which is the better fast casual buy . Plus big oil big problems the one chart that says oil stocks could be going the way of the banks in 2007. It is a scary chart. So get ready. But first through the storm that was brewing in the market today it wasnt stocks. Oil seeing its worth month since the financial crisis. Gold seeing its worst month in more than two years. Bonds meantime rallying sharply. With all this