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Five years since the signing of the historic Belfast Agreement, political commentators in Northern Ireland are increasingly pessimistic that further progress can be made. The key points of the Agreement have proven difficult – if not impossible – to renegotiate, and as we go to press, talks on devolved power in the North are effectively deadlocked.
Even after President George W. Bush’s April visit to Belfast, diplomatic attempts to re-charge the talks have failed. The timing is significant because elections to the Northern Assembly are already overdue. With the Orange marching season imminent always a time to revive sectarian tensions – pro-Agreement parties and government sources in Dublin and London are fearful that stalemate will produce a dangerous political vacuum this summer.