For boj officials given you have the week yen that could be adding to the inflation story but still they are not likely to hike at this point. Weekends supports the exporters and today weak yen supports the exporters. And we saw sharp losses in the tech sector. Lets look at korea at the start here because we see it moving a little higher, trade data dropping, first 20 days of april numbers for trade and exports rising 11 for the year, positive for korea and a barometer for global trade as it could play into the story korean won has been against the backdrop very much of king dollars so just recapping the trade numbers for the first 20 days of april, exports up for the year and imports gaining as well and we have as i said again the first 20 days of april so a reversal from a contraction the month prior. Paul australia has just opened for trade and it is a stagnant open but we see modest again modest gains. A theme we saw towards the end of last week even though losses on asx gold stocks did well in Energy Stocks did well and brent crude coming off some of the highs at the moment up two thirds of 1 in the early going and the aussie Dollar Holding Steady about . 64 and yields in australia the yield creeping up a little and slip early going but we have opened for trade in u. S. Debt as well as japan so lets see how we are tracking their with bonds headed for the first worst month of the year and a tick up in yields at the moment the twoyear knocking on the door of 5 so will be interesting to see if it crosses that threshold. We will have fun watching the markets absorb this. Annabelle and another thing is the big reports we have coming out from big tech earnings arriving this weekend time for investors looking for an ai powered rebound or perhaps not we will see what comes out but our next guest is asia equities Portfolio Manager and we have seen such optimism that ai would lead to big productivity gains and boost bottom lines of companies but you are cautious it seems. We have been in this rally for over half a year now and asian semi conductors supply chain has been participating in this and the way i look at it as a sector with risks of overestimating the near term importance of the Infrastructure Investment in ai and i am cautious in the sense that [indiscernible] will have to be rebased and some stocks have rallied more than they deserve and earnings will probably not be able to support that so overall i think Stock Selection remains important, which companies can deliver earnings and have the pricing pallor Pricing Power in the rally and some stocks will not be able to keep going. Annabelle what timeline do you expect to see gains from ai . It seems inevitable they will change our lives in big ways. Are you saying the timeline is being pushed out . For investors this is obviously an important schematic that will lead to strong productivity growth down the road but timing is the question and it is risky to underway but at this moment we are not seeing killer apps come through. There is not revenue impact significant enough to support sustained Infrastructure Investment in nice some in the semi conductors supply chain so investors cannot be too underweight given the strong momentum on the other hand from earnings the perspective we need to be careful and select. Paul a rough week for i. T. Stocks last week in japan and korea and the nikkei is down 9 from the peak in march but a chart shows the csi 300 was up last week and now is beating the nikkei. Is this the start of a trend where we see profit taking in japan and investment in big chinese names . Absolutely. I think there has been a volatile shift in the market and in asia we have seen markets move dramatically and china has driven the market and stabilize somewhat but i expect volatility to continue with reset of expectations in the market. In terms of the japanese market we hold a very positive view but the yen has been a strong focus for investors so the way we look at it we need to be focused with selection in japan and we still like Japanese Properties so we see the domestic japanese property as a promising area to invest in. Paul do you like some of the other names that have that that have been on the nose, fossil fuel is doing well perhaps at the expense of sustainable investments. Its a great question and i am often asked by investors how to look at sustainability in asia in this light and my answer is we are still in the very early stages of Sustainability Development within asia and i think from the top to the bottom its highs so Sustainable Development remains an area where it is overlooked by investors and with oil prices doing well it seems simpler to invest in oil and the energies but in asia Sustainability Development is ongoing and i would like to argue there is a tremendous Investment Opportunity here for investors to achieve excess returns by investing new Energy Infrastructure in asia and the electricity grid across the region and [indiscernible] annabelle one thing that might take a little while to bear fruit is koreas value up program and we see investors leaving that market because theyve been a bit disappointed with what they have seen but how long do you think until we see any concrete returns in comparison to what we have had in japan . We definitely have seen that episode before. In japan it took a lot of time for consensus to be built and corporates to step up, management to step up and really take a look at the shareholder return programs and commit to optimizing their Balance Sheets so in korea we expect something similar to happen but obviously the market recognizes similar patterns and they have rallied up quickly and again indiscriminately a lot of stocks went up all at once and in our experience is one of the first Institutional Investors that signed up in korea we see tremendous differences in divergence among management of companies so the companies that will change will enjoy a better evaluation over time over time compared to managements and companies that are slow to move so again this remains to be a very interesting thing for investors to invest in asia as we train at such a large valuation discount compared to peers and this be another western about stocks selection but we remain optimistic about value up program in korea. Annabelle thank you for your time, vicky and we are bang on 10 minutes into the session and tracking text docs these are names that are linked to nvidia and that story friday was a significant drop we saw for the u. S. Based chipmaker by or company but we are seeing companies linked to nvidia as well a little weaker in the session the biggest decline we have seen and supra superlow supermicro slumping shop sharply on wall street and another one [indiscernible] is coming online a big drop so far and biggest decline actually we have seen going back to march but we have gone under pressure given that the fouryear profit has missed estimates and coming in at 3. 4 billion dollars which is 15 lower than forecast as recently as for mary so really the story of sales falling short of expectations. As recently as february so really the story of sales falling short of x dictations. Expectations. Paul coming up, a u. S. Bill forcing the Parent Company of tiktok to sell up. We discuss implications, next. This is bloomberg. Paul a bill forcing bytedance to divest ownership stake is on a fast track to becoming law in the u. S. It was included in a crucial aid package for ukraine and israel passed by the house of the weekend. The author of the bill called tiktok a spy balloon on the phones of americans are the bill will not delete the app from phones. How will it work . Its not and you have to remember that tiktok is used by tens of millions of americans and has become a staple of life in the country. People get their news from it, recipes, its not just about keeping in touch with friends, you are potentially looking at removing a major source of news so i think a lot of people are concerned about what a change in tiktok would do but also how tiktok uses data and might be using what people post. There has been a lot of debate in the government for a long time and it seems to be coming to a head. Annabelle tiktok is making some personnel changes in the u. S. In preparation to fend off the possible law. Is there anywhere tiktok in the u. S. Mist stepped were could have done differently to convince lawmakers . The general counsel of bytedance and tiktok in the u. S. Bloomberg reports he will be removed from the role in the wake of this but tiktok and bytedance say it is not the case and that they will pursue legal action so it will be interesting to see what they do and how it plays out, especially leading up to the november elections where the u. S. China relationship will be a focus in a matter who wins so what this means for tiktok and the relationship. Paul what will it mean for bytedance and their bottom line . China recently has been restrained on the u. S. And held back so it will be interesting to see if this pushes china to Say Something or if they will just deal with it as it comes. Annabelle that was karen lee and sticking with china president xi jinping has ordered the biggest reopen a station of their military since 2015. It will affect cyber warfare. For more, lets bring in john lu who joins us in hong kong. How much is this about preparing china for modern warfare . That is a big part of it. If you look at what they have done, they have elevated the importance of aeronautics and cyber, both areas where there is intense competition with the u. S. I think that is probably the driving force. There is another factor as we have seen a big turnover in the defense arena and the defense minister was removed and the head of the Strategic Support force being removed, that person is not been seen a while so there are some political things underneath this as well. We have Antony Blinken headed to china. Paul the latest in a long procession of u. S. Officials to head over to china. Will this be a diplomatic tightrope . On one hand he is making the trip because of the meeting between president xi and biden in San Francisco and they will continue what has come out of the meeting. On the other hand there are lots of problems, the biggest is russia, ukraine, and Chinese Support of russia with secretary blinken talking about how much objection there is to china supply and russia with things that can be used for missiles and also for cars and electronics. Its a big issue we expect secretary blinken to bring up when he is in beijing. Annabelle it comes down to the competition and returning to the idea of Chinese Military do we have clarity as you mentioned the personnel chainings and people who have not been seen in public for a while did we have parity on who really is leading the key positions in Chinese Military at this point in time and also there is been in the past a question of china being prepared in terms of weapons but strategically not ready either in terms of combat. Xi jinping has made it clear that his objective is to get the Chinese Military to the point where they could fight a war and win. Whether that is the case right now is questionable, especially with so many high ranking officials being removed and moved around. That effort will not change because even though we may not have great certainty of who was in charge of the military, we know that he xi jinping is very well in charge and it is clear what he wants to do. Paul jeanluc, thank you. U. S. House of representatives has passed a 95 billion of shade ukraine, israel, taiwan and it ends the sixmonth political deadlock ands the senate is expected to pass it later this week. Now we have a chance to stabilize the situation and protect the initiative. Paul for more lets bring in michael heath. It took long day it took a long time to get there. It was like pulling teeth. Winston churchill once said the u. S. Always does the right thing after it has explored every other option and this is really a case of that. This is hugely important for ukraine. Russia was taking advantage of their ammunition so this will be a morel biscuit and probably this will be a morale boost and probably stabilize the situation, as president zelenskyy said. In november if you get a trump administration, trump is so positive towards putin, there is every chance this could be pulled and then europe will have to step up. It is doubtful they can. So ukraine has an enormous amount running this election and russia has the wind behind them. The longer the war goes on, the better russia gets and it is starting to improve so ukraine desperately needed this. Annabelle part of the funding goes towards israel. Benjamin netanyahu says that could be partly spent on operations in gaza. It does not seem that is what the white house would want even though they called for further assistance. The israel side i think it was essential the package link them together to get everyone on board to pass. It was so important to pass. The u. S. Was not going to leave israel without the ammunition it needs. But rafah will be back on the agenda. Everyone who been closely focused on ron on iran. The strike was just a case of look how we can riccio but with how we can reach you but they are now playing it down. Putting aside raw, putting aside raw file rafah, you have hezbollah on their border, so the position of israel has deteriorated some in terms of iran showing their hand and it will depend, if israel goes ahead with rafah, iran will fall into the background but the u. S. Was always going to support israel so if they go and attack rafah straightaway, it looks like iran everyone knows they had to have this. Annabelle we will have more coming up on daybreak asia. This is there is no such thing as free trade in steel. The market in steel globally is significantly distorted by what we are calling the nonmarket lessees and practices coming out of china. Paul that is u. S. Trade representative speaking to bloomberg. Lets look at how some commodities are tracking. Iron ore softening a little. A bellwether for what is going on in china and important to australia. Declining by 1. 2 percent. A softening of the oil price. Brent crude 86. 79. As we discussed tension in the middle east deescalating a little bit. Israel and iran seem to be dialing back the tension. Gold price backed off a bit as well. 2398. Gold up 10 this month. Big banks including ubs and Morgan Stanley are cutting back on jobs in asia. We will look at their outlook,. This is bloomberg. We are hearing that it is all big tech. Big tech has great Balance Sheets with a lot of debt a lot of cash and very little debt. Tech is a big part of the quality story. We expect this quarter for Many Companies to lead on earnings growth. You cannot have tech be the only thing that does well if you start seeing economic we this in other places economic weakness in other places. We will see whether lofty valuations are supported by fundamentals. Paul bloomberg tv guests on u. S. Tech earnings. It will be a big week with many of the magnificent seven reporting and we have the results of our mliv pulse survey. 409 respondents. This earnings season give the s p 500 a boost . A lot of optimism. 63 say they think so. Some other questions that stood out, what is the biggest headwinds to 2024 earnings globally . The two year yield is knocking on the door. Companies not delivering on ai is another concern. Oil is a distant third. One more question, what would be most likely to make an make you add exposure to dividend stocks . An underwhelming earnings season, according to 42 . There are a number of other questions but those are the ones that stood out to us. Annabelle Something Else that stands out add that given the number we have been seeing is job cuts or something closely tracked by our audience but this graphic here taking a look at some of the ones and now and likely down to sourcing and the likes of deutsches, hsbc, ubs, bank of america have reduced headcount in the last few months. Hong kong Mainland China will be certainly bearing the brunt and our next guest says there could be further reductions to calm and is the managing director at Robert Walters and where do you think the are in the redundancy cycle at this time . It is hard to call it. Many clients say we are at the bottom in terms of where the cuts are. This has been happening for almost two years. The hiring from the getting of 2021 to the middle of 2022 and at that point it was clear the revenue did not support the amount of hiring they had done so you have to consider the base perspective and where they are now and we get the sense that will probably be more trimming in the next quarter but as we go into the second half of the year there will be some improvement that will not necessarily results in hiring anywhere near the levels of 2021. Annabelle we talk about precovid levels. Going back to before 2019 hiring trends or is this going to be creating a new normal . The Reference Point we are using is 2021 and 2022 where there was significant hiring, kind of a post covid bump in terms of recruiting. 2017 is not necessarily relevant to the world we are in now. Paul what impact does this have on salary expectations . I suppose people have become more amenable to making the move. There are fewer positions and when the supply demand factors favor employers, what you get is a market more open to making moves and if you look at the percentages people are moving, two or three years ago it was 30 and now it is closer to 15 and certainly parts of Investment Bank getting banking are people looking for where the opportunities are. Paul to what degree does hiring depend on the state of the chinese economy and do you see signs of encouragement . Again, in hong kong for Investment Banking it is hugely dependent on chinese economy and companies coming to market to raise equity debt issuance or engage in activity. The sense we get is things will look to improve in the next few quarters. With banks given how they have on this cycle of hiring and almost immediately having to reduce workforce they will wait for more than one quarter before they ramp up hiring again. Annabelle are there specific sectors or roles most at risk . Anything in the ipo sector given how the market has performed in hong kong, Equity Capital markets tend to be more at risk because there is less activity coming through. Financial services is a broader spectrum of firms and activity and functions and i think we hone on front office Investment Banking jobs when job cuts come because they are some of the highest earners in the industry. Annabelle we talk a lot about the competition between hong kong and singapore. Where are we in that . A few years ago everyone was running to singapore and other is a question about if they are coming back and do you see different salary expectations between the two cities . Salaries across hong kong and singapore are similar. Up until about three years ago hong kong was more of a premium, a more expensive place to live and the pipeline in hong kong was heavier and more attractive than singapore so as a result bankers in hong kong demanded a premium but now it is flat. I think there is appetite from individuals to come back but the job market does not support it so bankers and professionals will go over the opportunities are and right now in hong kong there are not as many opportunities and it is preventing that migration that we would see in a healthier market. Annabelle is there a preference for other places like tokyo or dubai for people who are chasing a lower tax rate . I would say the middle east and dubai is a more realistic option for bankers out of jobs in hong kong. Tokyo has more of a language requirement and is a distinct market where a specific track record is required. Dubai is a more realistic option. Paul john malawi, thank you so much for joining us. Lets look at how we are tracking on markets at the open we were wondering if investors with that on the sidelines today. They have decided this looks like a dip worth buying. Asx up 1. 25 in australia. Equities rebounding everywhere. Nikkei better by 6 10 of 1 . Kospi better by three quarters of 1 . A broadbased rally as well. Energy in australia. In the red in japan, i. T. Stocks had a rough day but elsewhere pretty much every other sector is in the green. Lets look at tesla suppliers, all doing well and that is notwithstanding the expectation that we will have an interesting Earnings Announcement from tesla this week as their stock has slid more than 40 this year as a result of slumping sales and the announcement from elon musk that maybe we will not do a lowcost vehicle after all and focus will shift to robotaxis. A people upheaval at tesla at the moment but early going in the asiapacific. I am a first managing Deputy Director says the potential for Oil Price Stock will be problematic for the global economy. They discussed the outlook for u. S. Interest rates at the imf spring meetings. This is a risk we worry about. If there is a serious escalation, a much wider escalation than so far, we could have a severe shock we are not there yet. Oil prices went up some but then came back down. We have excess capacity in saudi arabia. Nonopec countries putting more oil on the market. There are other saw supplies sources to buffer shocks but if there is a largescale escalation in the middle east, it is a problem. Going up 100 a barrel would be problematic. Even going from here to 100 a barrel would be problematics or countries who are still trying to bring inflation back down to target. The imf has talked about concern of sovereign date debt. A sluggish growth picture because of the overhang, is that the fear . Something like that that could potentially happen . The u. S. Is running very large deficit for a country where demand is very strong and there is still the last mile of bringing inflation down. We cannot have a deficit of 7 gdp, it needs to be lower. It has to stay low for a while. But the bigger problem is the spillover for the rest of the world because when there is so much should debt issued by the u. S. It can crowd out the borrowing from other countries. The cost of borrowing goes up and the debt servicing costs go up. I would not say the u. S. Has a debt sustainability problem now but when they are borrowing that heavily it causes rates to be that much higher and has implications for the rest the world and corporations and households. How much how much higher . We expect rates to come down. Right now we are getting inflation back to target and we expect it will come down. It will take a little longer. But it the question is if it will come down to what we saw. It does not seem to be the case. Paul australian treasurers says next months budget will cut the Growth Outlooks for most Major Economies including china. They say middle east tensions are compounding concern about lingering and nation and weakening growth and the headwinds were central to the discussion last week in washington at the imf and world bank ministers. Plenty more to come on daybreak asia. This is bloomberg. Paul elon musk has decided to postpone his trip to india. Tesla spent the weekend cutting prices for cars and head of earnings expected to confirm the first revenue decline in watcher years and he has state their future on the robotaxi and for more on this big take lets bring in our guest. What is going on . What is going on at tesla is a great question. Its been a crazy week even by elon musk standards. Tesla will cut 10 of their global workforce, 40,000 jobs. They came out in a late night memo last sunday. Then this week there was the recall of the cyber truck, all the ones they sold so far had to be recalled to ask a fault. Tesla is trying to put the pay package for elon back to shareholders for a vote for approval and then the news about the price cuts commit discounts to selfdriving package in america and then the lastminute decision to cancel the trip to india scheduled for this week all is ahead of what is shaping up to be a crucial Earnings Call tuesday. The numbers are looking pretty bad. Weve seen a drop in the First Quarter deliveries. Investors will be looking for clarity from elon musk about what is happening at tesla and what the strategy is going forward. Annabelle and is it something that is likely to deliver . Can he give a level of transparency . Who knows . He is material at best mere great he is mercurial at best. Investors need to broaden their sales bait. Sales base. Midweek that was stitched for what he called the balls to the wall effort for the robotaxi. Thats a sharp turn in strategy to make without a lot of warning. So there will be a lot of interest in the Earnings Call. Not so much on the earnings but more on what he is going to say about the outlook for tesla and where it is putting its resources and how much progress it has made on the robotaxi. Paul we were talking a minute ago about if he will be on the call because sometimes he is in. It will be hard to imagine he would skip this one. Which elon musk will be on the call . It would have been a prestigious trip for elon musk to show up in india during this election week. He was supposed to be there today. He backed out yesterday. He has to be on the call. If he isnt, people will just ask more questions about what is going on. Annabelle that was peter virgo with what is going to be a key Earnings Announcements we will watch for this month but coming up a possible delay in rate cuts as the peso gets weaker. We will have our interview next. This is bloomberg. High taxes can erode returns quickly, so you need a taxoptimized portfolio. At creative planning, our Money Managers and specialists Work Together to make sure your portfolio and wealth are managed in a taxefficient manner. Its what you keep that really matters. Why not give your wealth a second look . Book your free meeting today at creativeplanning. Com. Creative planning a richer way to wealth. Annabelle looking at currencies this morning, the readthrough we got from the screen now is that the dollar is steady against major counterparts, the aussie dollar may be a standout but also tied to Commodity Prices and tensions around middle east but what has been the key dynamic we have seen in currency markets this year is the surprising Dollar Strength because a lot of investors came into the year thinking the dollar would get weaker because the fed would cut rates but instead it is the flipside where there is a resurge in inflation and strong u. S. Economy and there is no need for justification for jay powell to reduce the benchmark so that is playing into the dynamic on the japanese yen Holding Close to 155 but certainly as well the big impact on emergency emerging currencies and the finance secretary of the philippines is talking about of rate cut if the peso gets weaker and he told us the delay should not affect the governments growth goal. For the last 20 years we have had a relatively Stable Currency , more or less around 55 cents 2004, 55 peso to the u. S. Dollar. Are you worried about it weakening to the 59 arena . 57 was the line in the stand and i think it is pushed to for and i feel like it is pushed to 59 now. It is a possibility. If the peso gets weaker passed 59 potentially you will have to hold off on Interest Rate reduction . That is right. That is a big statement. Potentially. Starting where we started with janet yellen meeting with her counterparts from south korea japan do you think because the u. S. Need south korea and japan and the philippines as partners against china you almost have a little leeway if you wanted to intervene . Not so much and so far as i guessed china but really it is more about economic operation between the philippines, u. S. , and japan and korea. Not so much about propping up the currency but even if we hold off on reducing Interest Rates we expect the philippine economy to stay below 67 this year. What is the Growth Outlook for the philippines if we continuously see a stronger dollar and potentially the fed hold rates into next year, which is what one fed governor said yesterday . Our revenue increases with higher foreignexchange u. S. Dollar, we have [indiscernible] a strong bpo indices. Paul that is the finance secretary of the philippiness beginning with bloomberg exclusively. Here are some stocks to watch. Ai related stocks. Nvidia tumbled by the most in four years friday and that led to a broad selloff in u. S. Tech shares. Asian ev makers will be in focus after tesla dropped prices of their bestselling model. Lets look at how we are tracking for futures. Before that, breaking news about honda. Annabelle honda is nearing a deal with canada to produce electric vehicles. Looking to build ev vehicles and components in ontario. This deal could be announced in days. It involves a commitment by honda for new facilities, according to sources. They have not yet announced publicly. Honda around 1. 5 to the upside but that is it for daybreak asia and markets coverage continues as we look to the start of trade in Mainland China and hong kong. Her uncles unhappy. Im sensing an underlying issue. Its tmobile. It started when we tried to get him under a new plan. But they they unexpectedly unraveled their price lock guarantee. Which has made him, a bit. Unruly. You called yourself the uncarrier. You sing about price lock on those commercials. the price lock, the price lock. so, if you could change the price, change the name its not a lock, i know a lock. So how can we undo the damage . We could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. Their connection is unreal. And we could all unexperience this whole session. Okay, thats uncalled for. 30 minutes away from the opening bell. Happy monday morning. Youre watching the china shop. I am david ingles. Corporate earnings and ego data as a seek insight into direction of centralbank policy. Elon musk is off