Haidi welcome today break australia. I am having these stroudwatts in sydney. Annabelle im Annabelle Droulers in hong kong. Shery i am shery ahn. More than 1100 people were killed as fighting between israel and hamas enters a third day. The u. S. Is moving an Aircraft Carrier strike closer to the region. The middle east goes to war with the yen and go higher. Soil traders watching calls for governments to support the palestinian people. Iran is a key or producer and backer of the hamas group. This is how wti and brent are coming on in the Asian Session after a shark attack by hamas on israel. Iran is now seen as a wildcard when it comes to conflict potentially spreading to the rest of the middle east. This is the pricing after oil posted its biggest weekly drop since march. There is no immediate threat to supply at this point. However, we are watching very closely the vital shipping route that tehran previously threatened to close and of course Higher Oil Prices could mean global Government Bond yields rallying further. Look out bond futures. Cash treasuries are closed monday for the u. S. Holiday but bond futures are trading is normal. Flip the board and you can see where we are at after the 10 year yield and 30 year yield come down a little after touching the 2007 highs. We had data showing hot nonforeign payrolls or ports on the friday session in new york. The s p 500 gained ground snapping its four week losing streak. We got a lastminute deal with the automakers union helping boost demand. The dollar is continuing to study at the 12 70 level after the boost we saw initially following the deadly attacks on israel. Lets get more details on data. At least 700 people have been killed there since hamas launched its unprecedented incursion saturday with at least 307 palestinians dead. Washington affirmed ironclad support for israel as it sends an Aircraft Carrier strike group in the Eastern Mediterranean. Lets get the latest from bloombergs ian fisher. We continue to watch violence and fighting. Where are we at . How deadly has it been . Ian it is the worst attack in israel since the formation of the nation in 1948. Theres really no comparison. Even the yom kippur war that essentially happened on this 50th anniversary of it. That was a completely different thing. It had far fewer casualties inside of israel. Right now we are looking at 700 dead, as you said inside israel. Some of them are american. We dont know how many. 370 palestinians have been killed mostly in fighting and some in retaliatory attacks. Following the conflict over the years, you notice that when israel and gaza get into one of these conflicts, generally, a lot of Palestinian Civilians die. Israel has not quite launched this level of attacks it often does in situations like this. I think they are quite shocked about planning their next steps. I would expect a number of palestinian deaths to grow quickly and by a lot. Haidi this has been an intelligence failure for the ages. How did israel and u. S. Security and intelligence officials missed this . Ian good question. Nobody has been able to answer that. I think the answer is not going to be good. For israels current political leadership. It is hard to find the words for the level of failure of this. Think about it. There was probably 1000 or at least the high 100s, what davids verily what the Israeli Military said last night of palestinian attackers. Can five people keep a secret . Not usually. Can 1000 people keep a secret . Never. How they missed this is mystifying. Haidi the latest on the ongoing fighting. With us is david miller senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace previously a state department negotiator on middle east issues. Great to have you with us. Ian was just telling us how incredible it is this sort of attack was missed by the intelligence community. What do you make of it . David i was in jerusalem when egypt and syria attacked israel in october 1973. I had an eerie reminiscent sensation about the rapacity of intelligence organizations to have a lot of information but failure to imagine the capacities and motives and acceptances of their adversaries. We will not know the full tiktok on the intel of the story here for months of that. But, its clear the israelis underestimated their adversary. Its they simply did not come for him the notion, even though the idea of hamas operatives tunneling, hezbollah operatives in the north tunneling, have been a major concern of israel before, they simply could not imagine hamas could conduct such an operation or under current circumstances would. What we do not know is whether or not analysts indicated the threat and nobody took it seriously. It was an intelligence failure and an operational failure. The fact that three days into this conflict, the Israeli Defense forces are still not successful in securing the areas proximate to the fence line, that is long, and breached on many different levels. In many different places. I am not questioning the heroism and commitment of the israeli forces. But, intelligence failure and operational failure. Why werent there sufficient forces on permanent bases along the fence line . Or, in gaza, the where they could be deployed immediately. Shery should we start imagining the possibility this could spiral into a wider regional conflict . David people talk about that. I have done a fair number of interviews since yesterday. When you talk about regional conflict lets be specific. You arent talking about an intrastate conflict between israel and any of the countries. With the exception of lebanon and its not the lebanese estate it is hezbollah. When we talk regional conflict we really mean iran. I still think the prospects for an actual confrontation, and i mean israeli and iranian strikes against one another, not proxy, but for directly on one anothers territory. I believe the prospects of that are probably not great. This conflict, however, is not over. It could easily spread to the west bank coming to jerusalem. If the it israelis do mount, as i suspect they will and major ground incursion, land, sea, and air in an effort to eradicate hamas leadership, destroy its military infrastructure and fundamentally change the balance of power, preventing hamas from covering 2 Million People in gaza, that will involve enormous numbers of casualties. That could prompt, then, and trigger, a wider escalation. But even under those circumstances i do not think its real wants this. The iranians clearly do not want a direct confrontation with israel or the u. S. Annabelle if the political calculus has fundamentally changed, where does that leave the two state solution . Aaron where does that leave what . Haidi the two state solution. Aaron pop aaron the two state solution even before this was largely a thought experiment. In order to have a serious negotiation and pursue something you and i would describe as an equitable and durable solution we need four things. You need it leaders that are masters of their political houses not prisoners of their ideologies. You need a sense of ownership. Israelis and palestinians care more about solving this problem than any external actor. You need an effective mediator prepared to go the distance and finally an agreed and that both sides can agree to. Im sorry to say, we worked on this problem the better part of 25 years. Since leaving government in 2003 i preached the same annoyingly negative message. Without at least the first two, leadership and ownership, the chances of the resolution of the conflict are slim to none. And not to trivialize it. Slim has already left home. Haidi we touched on what is called an enormous failure of intelligence and there are questions faced by the u. S. And israeli officials on how this was allowed to happen. I wonder how the fractious nature of domestic policy in israel may have led to this point as well, certainly, not help the situation. Aaron you will hear a lot from mr. Netanyahu i am sure in the coming days. It was the divisions within is really society. The decision on the part of thousands of israeli with service wrigley important for intelligence operations under force operations. It was their unwillingness or commitment not to do reserve duty that sent signals to israels adversaries and led to this. I do not think that is credible, frankly. I think by and large even without a judicial overhaul, and domestic divisions, you still would have to problem this problem. It flowed from in part complacency. In part more of a focus on the west bank. And the northern border of lebanon. And an ability to imagine that hamas inability to imagine that hamas would breach the fence line. And, coordinated undercover off rocket strikes, high trajectory weapons launched, almost 3000 in three days. It was a failure to imagine and the terrible consequence. The brutality, the savagery. The stories we will hear, once the israelis secure the south, they will be ghastly. I need cruelty, and in their barbarity with respect to what hamas has done. Their intention was to kill indiscriminately, to terrorize. And, to demonstrate to the world that they, not the Palestinian Authority, could defend the rights of the palestinian people. This was a mass care were attacked. Despite the fact you could attach labels, military coordination, it was a massive terror attack. I am aimed at sowing terror. It will not break the spirit of the government or the people. But, its a painful, tragic reminder of the cruelty this region can offer. Shery does this mean the Israeli Campaign could go on a long time, especially when you alluded to that major incursion that could happen . Not to mention as heidi alluded to the fractious divide in politics, a common foe could work well for domestic politicians as well. Aaron i think in a way it though the longterm consequence for the Prime Minister is unclear. Her premiership, leaving it. The israeli options are not great. They could negotiate with hamas for the return of we dont even know how many israeli casualties. Well over 100. If they do that hamas will have a highpriced, in terms of the release of palestinian prisoners. Thats one option. They could try military rescue. Thats very dangerous. Then you continue with airstrikes. That will destroy infrastructure badly needed for 2 million and habitants of the gaza strip. They could blockade the strip. A total embargo. Nothing goes in and nothing goes out. That would cause severe humanitarian consequences. Or as you pointed out, they could launch qualitatively and quantitatively a campaign that we have not yet seen. It could last days. I doubt they would reoccupy the gaza strip. But you have to ask yourself and i am sure the planners are asking themselves this now. What about the day after . What happens even if they are successful in decapitating a masa leadership . Destroying its military infrastructure. Without a statement of force to improve the lives of those on the gaza strip and to control a monopoly on the forces of violence of these disparate group, you are talking about a wash, rinse, and repeat circle that will recur. Its a tough situation they face. And it is an even tougher one given what we see in terms of those killed and injured in recent days. Haidi we talk about israel being galvanized into response with this new shock of vulnerability. Does this push closer to that potential lies for ron here . Aaron i think its too early. A lot of analysts are speculating you could hang a closed for the season sign on the prospects of israeli semi normalization. I think that objective has taken a big hit. Because, success dependent is dependent on the Biden Administration pushing the government for meaningful, consequential concession from the israelis on the palestinian issue. Right now, if the Biden Administration had any leverage they were prepared to use with israel the leverage is gone. With 700 dead and still counting, and at real possibility of a massive military operation against gaza, the odds the administration could force, would force the Israeli Government at this time, or that the Israeli Government would even entertain the concession relating even to the Palestinian Authority or any palestinians. It strains credibility, friendly, to the breaking point. I worry greatly about the price of the u. S. Will have to pay for israeli saudi normalization. Its way too high given return on investment. Thats what i worry about more than anything else. Right now i think the issue is the israeli palestinian. That is the focus. The Biden Administration would like to do things that would preempt this strain. I think their mindset is to your. They are prepared to give the israelis, understandably, the time and space and even support as secretary of defense lloyd austin said, to basically do what they will do in response to this massive act of terror. I think our leverage year here is minimal. One thing. If the israelis do launch a campaign in gaza, if they are successful, if to any degree they choose to extricate rather than to reoccupy that it is conceivable, and, i am thinking about in a galaxy far, far away, but it is conceivable if the International Community led by the United States, eu, and bangor could come up with a plan , a real plan, to deal with the economic and social rule cruel realities of what life is like in gaza, you might consider they could, to a large degree, reduce the influence of the radical palestinian groups. But that would take coordination and resources and real will. In order to do it. Probably there would need to be a transition. May become organized by the United Nations to somehow create a pathway from a hamas leadership to something else. It is sketchy, i concede. But we need to think positively in some regard of what to do. Haidi aaron david miller, we appreciate your time. He is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Lets get you to annabelle. Annabelle a look at some initial reaction through some of these weekend events here. Big moves in oil already. The story in currencies, still firmness in the japanese yen. Thats a safe haven play. Also Dollar Strength is coming through. You can see the euro, pound, weakening. The aussie dollar down. 5 . In equities we saw a selloff coming through middle eastern markets, as can be expected. Israeli stocks really bearing the brunt of the losses. The biggest loss for the israeli benchmark here, a big drop of more than 30 years, already a stock market under pressure given the stability and Security Issues ongoing in israel. In terms of Market Reaction in asia lets change now because we have a number of clodr markets given the wild weather we are facing in this the. It is something that could take a lot of liquidity out of the market closures. Kiwi stocks already online to the downside. Other factors are at play including a blowout jobs number from friday. Shery more to come on daybreak australia. We continue to follow the latest of elements on the israel hamas war. This is bloomberg. Shery oil gaining ground in the Asian Session after a shock attack by hamas on israel injecting uncertainty into geopolitics under the middle east. Su keenan is following the energy Market Reaction it is not like there is really other meaningful threat to supply. The concern seems to be about the conflict widening. Su all eyes are on iran, a huge producer of oil and a supporter of hamas. Anytime there is a conflict in this area of the world there is concern about the strait of hormuz, a key shipping area that has brought up situations as recently as july where iran threatened shippers in the area or threatened to close the area. There is a possibility of the u. S. Cracking down again on a renewed flow of iranian oil exports. That is the situation where you could really see oil process prices higher. The concern would be with opecplus recently constraining supply just which just 10 days ago had a brand within striking distance of 100, before last week when we saw the biggest weekly decline since march. There is concern about other issues, macro issues that have caused oil to really retreat. Its the constriction of supply that would really send oil flying again. Right now there are no indications of that. We saw in asian trading a 3 gain from west texas intermediate. Its been on a tear before the recent pullback. Same with brent crude. It had been on a terrific rally before pulling back on these other macro issues. We heard from our earlier guest, just 50 years ago it was eerily similar in terms of the timing. There was an Arab Oil Embargo when saudi arabia and other producers choked off flow of oil. This is very different. At that time oil prices tripled. There is no repeat expected. Conflicts are very different as we just heard a lucid day did. The timing is a bit eerie. The saudis are not expected to turn off oil taps in solidarity with palestinians. Energy ministers from opecplus said we do not engage in politics. Haidi what are we hearing from analysts . Su you heard whether this be an escalation by sea, land1, air, that will be wait and see. Volatility will clearly be added back to the mix but we dont expect a huge jump in oil prices as we saw a little bit of jump, a little bid from gold. Thats also not expected to have a huge runoff. A bit of the jump you are seeing in asian trading might be traders that had short positions betting oil go slower from here and they had to buy back into the market to get out of those positions with the volatility this kind of crisis brings. Its not smart to take such a position at this point many traders will tell you. We heard from the Saudi Arabian energy ministers, the kuwaitis, and the uae. They stressed support for u. S. Opec policy and say they will cooperate. There is no reason to pull oil from the market to create a greater squeeze. That should add some confidence to the market, but, a new level of volatility has been added at this point haidi volatility is up across the board at this point. Su keenan has the latest on the impact to the energy space. Trading in australia and new zealand we saw a drum jump in treasury futures. We are seeing a correlation when it comes to ozzie and new zealand funds with treasury futures high and u. S. Equity futures taking a slide in the early part of asia. Australian bonds part of a nice footwork. Man, youre lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. Now you can stream all your games like its nothing. Yes [ cheers ] yeah woho running up and down that field looks tough. Its a pitch. Get way more into what youre into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. Shery live pictures of the skyline in gaza as conflict continues between israel and hamas. Israel officially declared war against hamas for its surprise attack. More than 1000 people have already been killed. The palestinians are holding tends of israeli hostages and they say they wont be freed until all Islamic Jihad prisoners in israel are freed. More than 700 people were killed in israel since hamas attacked. The operation by hamas included taking scores of israeli hostages. It was an unprecedented incursion. Military assistance from the u. S. Could be on its way to the Eastern Mediterranean has israel fights back after the attack by gaza militants. Vonnie quinn joins us with more. What support are we talking about . Vonnie the u. S. Is sending a group of warships to the Eastern Mediterranean. Defense secretary lloyd austin spoke with President Biden and after the discussion directed the u. S. Gerald r. Ford Carrier Strike to the region. Intimate be the only beginning of what is to come. It includes aircraft, guided missile cruisers and guided missile destroyers. The pentagon will send additional aircraft, two fighter squadrons all already are already in the region to enhance deterrence. The u. S. Will be rapidly providing the u. S. Israeli military with additional equipment and supplies including munitions. They will begin moving today at arriving in the coming days. A Swift Response from the u. S. Paid the u. S. House is preparing a bipartisan resolution that it stands with israel and condemns hamas costs brutal war. And reaction from the International Community. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself still at work condemning what he called a terror attack. He says israels right to defend itself cannot be doubted. The Un Security Council already met in a closed door session and the u. N. Secretary general Antonio Guterres condemned the attack calling for all diplomatic efforts to avoid writer conflagration. According to the u. S. Ambassador to the Security Council not all members there and dimmed the hamas attacks. Haidi what have we heard from beijing . Vonnie you can imagine some of the countries in the Security Council that may not have explicitly condemned the attacks , in terms of the reaction, it has been widespread condemnation, but not universal. You mentioned beijing. Its important to parse language out of some of the exponents of the world. Beijing and china said it is deeply concerned about the intensification of violence. It reiterated support for an independent palestinian state and it said the hamas attack showed a longterm stagnation of the Peace Process that is unsustainable. There is a fine line for some of these countries including in the middle east and africa as well. For example, morocco, which is moving towards diplomatic ties according to the socalled abraham accords. It condemned the attacks on civilians wherever they are. Also walking a fine line. Saudi arabia, which we know has also been working to normalize relations, also made an attempt to condemn the actions, but also, we know israel does intend to try at least to continue the normalization efforts as much as is possible in the coming weeks and months. Haidi lets look at fx reaction so far into the early part of the trading session this monday morning in asia. A lot of the haven demand was expressed through the lights of dollar yen treasury futures and australia and new zealand bonds following the same trajectory. The u. S. Dollar is advancing against most g10 peers as the trading is underway after deadly attacks in israel. Treasuries are closed monday for u. S. Holidays but we see heavy trading when it comes to the futures session there. The aussie dollar one of the currencies to slip in asian trading in the wake of the attack. 63, 62, of about. 4 per about. 4 lower that it was quoted in the early part of the session grade aussie dollar spot closing up by about. 3 . It was a second weekly decline of almost 1 the previous week. Extending losses today. Also trading lower against the japanese yen as well. The bloomberg dollar index, an upside of about. 2 . We are seeing the euro dial dollar sliding a little bit as well. An 11 week slide friday after closing the week dressed in positive territory. Also seeing a bit of weakness when it comes to trading in the pound as well. The bloomberg dollar index last week was about. 2 lower than it was for a third day in new york, though still higher for the Third Straight week. Lets get Market Analysis freight cheryl smith is an economist and Portfolio Manager at Trillium Asset management. We are watching the broader political and locations of this. Give us your reaction to what we have seen over the weekend . Cheryl it is clearly shocking. It adds another layer of uncertainty to conflict around the mediterranean. We cannot forget ukraine and russia have been at war for over a year. This brings in the risks that there might be involvement by iran. There might be involvement by other countries as well. The concern markets will have is the conflagration will spread. A declaration of war is very serious. We will see additional casualties in every direction. That cant be anything anybody wishes for. Haidi as you say, it adds an extra layer of uncertainty in a world where we are already dealing with what the endgame looks like for central banks. Already on the energy front we are looking at reflation when it comes to oil prices. Does it change your level of caution going into the rest of the year . We have seen that expressed in not only haven demand but a job in vix levels too. Cheryl it does increase the level of caution. We were already in a foggy time trying to understand what the Economic Data is telling us. In the United States it looked like we have a very resilient labor force when you look at one set of measures, maybe less so in another. It makes it much more difficult to interpret the signals we are getting. The war we had in the middle east in 2001 led to a pronounced decline in Economic Activity worldwide. I am hoping this will not be of the same dimension as that. But it adds to uncertainty and makes people more cautious. That makes it easy to tip us into the recession we have been waiting for all this time. We have seen substantial moves in Interest Rates already at increases in oil. This might fool Interest Rates down a little but Interest Rates will be going up due to the uncertainty of where it is located in the middle east. Shery potentially treasury yields higher at a time when we are also getting more and more brazilian data from the jobs market in the u. S. The nonforeign payables friday, hot, hot, hot area more than double what economists expected. We are expecting a recession but perhaps not anytime soon. What would that mean for the markets . Cheryl nonforeign payrolls were very hot absolutely. House establishment data was only 86,000 jobs added, below the replacement level. We have very conflicting data. As we looked at the time frame to the 2000 20072 thousand nine recession there was a big discrepancy between household and the nonforeign payrolls. And there was a lot of revision downward later when we looked at it. I think we may see revision downward here. If we take the nonforeign payrolls on its face it is a much more resilient market that would push recession further into the future. The increase in oil prices, as you say cannot be helpful for the recession fight. Shery can you have recession without massive unemployment and job losses . Cheryl their milder and deeper recessions. We have been running at a 3. 8 unemployment rate. Ovi to 5 or 6 would feel very difficult. It is not as high as for example what we saw in the 1980s or in the depths of the covid recession. However, it is still something that would be a substantial change for workers and it could lead to a lot of change in consumer behavior. We are already seeing effects in the United States on consumer behavior. We are seeing slower spending, lower income consumers being squeezed. We have a lot of other additional stressors, for example, student loan payments starting to come due. We are seeing a selling in the Housing Market as a result of the increase in Interest Rates we have already seen. There is a lot of people are trying to juggle trying to figure out what their Spending Plans should be and how it should work and this adds additional shock. It is hard to find anything positive or good about this in any way. Shery pandemic savings getting depleted as well. Cheryl smith good to have you with us economist and Portfolio Manager at Trillium Asset management. Coming up, President Biden signals a possible meeting with xi jinping at a San Francisco summit next month. We discuss the implications with Eurasia Group next. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg. s possible. With james hardieâ„¢. What are the prospects for a meeting between you and president jinping of china in San Francisco next month . President biden there is no meeting set up but there is a possibility. Shery u. S. President joe biden on a possible meeting with xi jinping as we watch u. S. Senators visit china. Despite increased engagement between the two sides our next guest says the trust is entrenched and not likely to abate debate is entrenched and not likely to abate anytime soon. That a pop anna ashton good to have you with us. Will we see derisking from both sides instead of friendly cooperation for more of these visits . Anna in terms of what we will see in the wake of this continued effort, this diplomatic detente by the Biden Administration and now a visit from Senior Leaders on the hill, the reality is there is an entrenched distressed distrust where both sides view each other if as a strategic competitors if not adversaries. There is limited room for cooperation. This is not returned to a friendly relationship like the first half of the 21st century. At the same time its a form that is besides are talking as much as they are they have maintained a regular tempo for their meetings. It signals both sides decided to invest in managing the relationship more handson and in a more collaborative way. Shery how positive is the fact we have the first congressional visit to china since 2019 at a time when we see more china hawks in washington . Anna it is positive for a couple reasons and significant for a couple reasons. First, the Biden Administration has been pursuing this diplomatic detente under a lot of pressure from the hill, especially republicans on the hill, not to do so. The fact this is a bipartisan delegation, albeit, one led by senator schumer, means this is a signal to the white house there are Senior Leaders on the hill that are supportive of engagement as a means of managing the relationship. That takes a little pressure off the white house as they head to the fall and get closer to the aipac summit in november. Second, it signals to beijing that there are members of congress that want a pragmatic working relationship on some level. Certainly, beijing knows a lot of the pressure, the most intense pressure, the most hawkish rhetoric in washington is coming from the hill. It is a positive sign in that way as well. Haidi in terms of the tenor of discussions on any level of engagement does that change . Does the u. S. Have more leverage given we know the domestic challenges playing out for xi jinping and his leadership . Anna you are right that the domestic challenges xi jinping is facing, the economic slowdown, the difficulties try to figure out how to stimulate Economic Growth that is more robust are making are putting china in a position where it may be more amenable to trying to manage the diplomatic relationship with the United States more peacefully and more stably. At the same time, i do not know that there is all that much leverage for the United States. The reality is both countries are quite dependent on each other and both have leverage they can wield against each other, but not without consequences for themselves. That i think is one of the realities that now washington has shown it has come to terms with. Haidi does going into an Election Year change any of this . Is there a sense that regardless of who is in the white house after the next election by and large we have seen broadbased support for policies towards china . Anna interesting question. If you were to get a second Biden Administration be fairly predictable the kind of china policy to expect. A continued approach to china. China as a strategic competitor and also a continued effort to find ways to maintain dialogue to ensure there are adequate channels for crisis communication and conflict prevention at the least. If we are to get a republican administration, right now the expectation is the republican would be donald trump. Thats a lot harder to predict. On one hand we could see a return to the office with the same attitude towards china that wasnt reflected towards the end of the trump administration. Hawkish across the board. On the other hand, it could be a return to a focus on balancing the trade relationship. We know lighthizer would likely be back in a Second Trump Administration but we arent sure what other china advisors would be back. That can be a very different scenario. More protectionist, more isolationist u. S. More focused on trade, less focused on these array of other issues. We do not know yet from the signals donald trump has not given exactly what kind of china approach he envisions. Haidi always great to chat with you anna ashton for the Eurasia Group. Tune into Bloomberg Radio to get indepth analysis from our daybreak team. We are broadcasting live in our studio in hong kong. Listen in via the app, radio plus or bloombergradio. Com. There is much more ahead. This is bloomberg. Annmarie live pictures of the skyline in gaza as we continue to see fighting after israel officially declared war against hamas for its surprise attack. Fighting continues for a third day. The u. N. Said tens of thousands of people have been displaced in gaza as Israeli Defense forces continue to target hamas positions on the strip. We are hearing from secretary and blinken in the u. S. He had a call with the Saudi Foreign minister and they discussed the hamas attacks on israel. We are watching closely what the regional implications will be. We are watching a potential wildcard that could be iran. A Major Oil Producer and key backer of the hamas group. This also at a time when we have seen threeway discussions between washington and riyadh and israel. We will bring you the latest. As of now, fighting between israel and hamas entering its third day. Look at how futures are trading. This is the first reaction to the shark attack of hamas on israel. We are seeing downside after the s p 500, on friday it gained ground and managed to snap a four week losing streak. We had positive news from the Auto Workers Union helping boost sentiment after a landmark concession from general motors. We continue to watch oil prices as well, seeing some gains after posting their biggest weekly drop since march. Take a look at wti and brent crude at the moment. We are seeing pricing around 86, 80 eight dollars per barrel. We are seeing a huge drop for the week last week since march. At the same time we watch geopolitical tensions in the middle east. We try to gauge the longterm reaction. For now, there does not seem to be an immediate threat to supply. Haidi australian Prime MinisterAnthony Albanese is optimistic the nation will vote yes saturday in a referendum on the indigenous voice to parliament. Australia government reporter been prescott ben wescott joins us now. He has been busy in the polling booths. Is there a sign of a turnaround and it comes to pull numbers . Ben the latest number from bowling shows a slight turnaround in a bump in support for the campaign. Its very small. The number is still 56 against the proposal versus the 44 voting yes. Just a week out from the voting day, october 14, it will be a big ask to turn the number around. A another pool showed an even bigger vote against the proposal. Haidi how is Prime Minister albanese handling the prospect of a defeat . Ben he said he would respect the result and he set over the weekend that if it is a no result he will not be legislating a voice to parliament instead of writing it into the constitution. He says he respects the response by the australian people and their proposal would be effectively dead for now. But he is worried about how the proposal will be viewed internationally if its voted down. He said on multiple occasions about a country that has come to terms with history. Haidi a big weekend in new zealand is well. Do we expect a change of government after they vote their saturday . Ben that is how it is looking at this point. Currently we expect to change of government in new zealand if the polls are to be believed. With a possible three Party Coalition within the National Party. A Prime Minister. Buxton and hit begins, the current Prime Minister, are pretty much even when it comes to their preferred Prime Minister polls. When it comes to the actual party vote, the National Party is what ahead of the labour party and that keeps falling at this stage. Haidi bloombergs ben wescott there with two key votes in australia and new zealand this week. Checking asia markets. Looks like a quite a lot of volatility and uncertainty going into the start of trading there. We are expecting headwinds. We continue to monitor the situation of the conflict in the middle east as well as china reopening after a weeklong old and a holiday as well. There are a lot of factors. We are seeing a move to havens now. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg. That first time you take a step back. I made that. With your very own online store. I sold that. And you can manage it all in one place. I built this. And it was easy, with a partner that puts you first. Godaddy