Of trading sessions for the bloomberg dollar index. Right now we are off that a little bit. You can buy 145 yen for the u. S. Dollar right now. That is the sign of its strength. Take a look. Crude has climbed steadily. John, what are you watching . You are right that oil weakness is leading to the weakness in energy stocks. Willingness to move back into tech can be seen in names like nvidia. They are at the top in terms of percentage gains. You are seeing that trend with canadian steel stocks rising. That is no thanks to the cleveland we will hear more later this halfhour on this sector insight excitement. We continued to watch the situation now. There is weakness as we try to put the pieces together on whether powerlines are connected to that story. Amc itself down substantially. It does weigh on the traditional amc stock. We will Pay Attention to those stories. Betting that Interest Rates will remain higher than inflation for a little longer. Liz mccormick joins us in studio. Thank you for joining us. A really exciting day. The bloomberg dollar index went up like a shot. Those yields are rich. Lets get over there. Now it is like the u. S. Economy is hanging in. Maybe the fed will have to stay higher for longer. Nobody believed them. Like you said, maybe look at the dollar yen and some of these currency pairs. You cannot beat it. The idea of higher Interest Rates for longer is one thing, but also the idea that we could see the end of a tightening cycle and interest in the dollar , if the rate level is exceeding the level inflation . Exactly. Were yields. Now, you have 10 and 30 year real yields. I think the fed has done a lot to bring down inflation, but they are not going to give it up. You still have a high real rate. That is the northstar for currency bearers. The dollar got it mojo again this year. I saw a story that the popularity is impressive and the yield are higher. It is almost 20 basis points higher. There is a lot of history. It was bigger than people are saying, go out the curve a little. People are saying, why dont i buy a 20 year . The 20 thank you. Liz mccormick joining us. We will continue to track those trends. We are getting plenty of retail data. Lets get more perspective from the senior economist to talk about that. If we are talking about a higher Interest Rate for longer, the first question a lot of people have is how the consumer will navigate through that. What are you seeing right now. What are you seeing right now . We ask a lot of questions of consumers, my team. Some of what we have seen lately has definitely aligned with what we have seen with the positive news so far, when it comes to the resilient consumer, with their spending. I think there will be some headwinds tied to Interest Rates. The debt burden is going to be a bigger issue heading into the fall. Not only are we already seen that credit card Interest Rate or higher, but the Student Loan Repayment clause is another headwind. There are a bunch of debts coming due that the consumer has not had to fully face yet. We will see more of that, heading into the fall. People here about the trend of trading down or getting more for your money. You will hear from some of the giants in that area like walmart reporting its quarterly results. Are there numbers associated with that trend . Im interested to see what walmart says in their Earnings Report this week. What we have seen in our data is a positive trend in terms of how much they are spending that would look good for the earning reports, particularly with the growth that we have seen in the goods categories. When it comes to trading down, we have seen higher income consumers trading down into walmart, as opposed to target or whole foods. We have seen a decline. Im curious to see whether walmart is seeing that as well. Or maybe it is a sign that consumers have fully adjusted their baseline. Maybe they consider walmart as the baseline. August 15, august 24, nordstrom and dollar fee, we are starting to get toward september. I we going to see a big backtoschool season or higher rates and looming student debt repayments putting a cap on that . From what we have seen so far, there are there is some momentum. I would say a lot of backtoschool shopping has already started. Amazon prime day is a big shopping day. The question with a lot of retailers like target and nordstrom how much of that spending that we have seen how much of that has been ecommerce as opposed to traditional brick and mortars . I do think that through the end of the summer, there does seem to be some resilience. You talked about credit card debt. Delinquencies are rising on that kind of debt, on auto loans. Are you seeing the charts look alarming . The thing that is preventing me from being too alarmed is the resilient labor market. That being said, the labor trend is toward slowing and with inflation, and a bit concerned that some of these categories, some of those prices could start to pick up groceries and gas. But we could see tougher inflation with resistance to getting back down to the 2 target. Looking at the wages versus prices growth is going to say a lot about the direction of how consumers are able to manage their debts and their spending. A senior economist talking about the u. S. Consumer. Coming up u. S. Steel shares are we will give you the latest on that story, next. This is bloomberg. With your hearing, if you start having a little trouble, youre concerned that its going to cost you money. To this day i only paid what i had to pay for the device. When i go back everything is covered. Theres so much youre missing by not having hearing aids. Well find you a hearing aid that fits your lifestyle and budget at one of our over fifteen hundred locations. Call miracle ear at 1800miracle and schedule your free, no obligation hearing evaluation today. How can you sleep on such a firm setting . Gab, mine is almost the same as yours. And schedule your free, almost is just another word for not as good as mine. Save 50 on the sleep Number Limited Edition smart bed. Plus, 36 month financing on select smart beds. Shop now only at sleep number. This is markets with matt miller. She steelmaker rejected an offer from their rival cleveland. Still working with bankers to review options. Ultimately, he thinks a deal can be done, but this speaks to a fairly long transition. Absolutely. I think you are referring to the big river plant being investment into bringing the Steel Production into the modern era. I think this is a fascinating story. You always want to do a little bit of negotiation to get a few dollars more. Is this fully valued . What is the problem with the premium . Sunday said the premium looks pretty interesting. At the heart of trust. You have sources saying, if you put this deal together, suddenly you have one company that has all the reserves. And then there are other thing. There are questions about electrical steel. Basic investors probably do not know about it, but at the core of this deal, it is to watch. Along with a helpful history guide on the early days of this company. You also highlighted we got that commentary from the ceo. The Steelworkers Union itself and how that might play into this going from here. Remind us of that. They can step in and say whether they want the deal to go through. He said, we support the deal. We like what they have done for the union. In the past two years, they had a Union Negotiation where they gave many of the demands that they asked for. I think that is a key part. He said it on bloomberg tv today. He has the support of the union and all the workers there. That is one of the big things that people have been talking about overnight. It seems like that is a good position now. I just want to quickly ask. The old way of making steel is pretty much gone for dynamic, but for these guys, they still do that with the 1920s production version. It traces its roots back. Still very much there outside of pittsburgh. It is not just then. This is how it is done in china and india, especially if you want that high purity of steel. That is the way to go. Joe, we appreciate you breaking it down for us. We will continue to watch the steel story. Mortgage rates continue to climb. We will jot we will dive deeper into that story. This is bloomberg. Fabulous surroundings. But everyones looking at their phones for Financial Insights from merrill. Is he hailing a ride to the concert hall . No. Hes making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony. They want to adopt a child and build a new home. So theyre talking numbers with their merrill adviser. Shes not researching her next role. Shes learning how to handle market ups and downs without the drama. Personalized advice so impressive your money never stops working for you with merrill. A bank of america company. This is bloomberg markets. Watching the Real Estate Market closely with Mortgage Rates rising for a Third Straight week in the u. S. With rates hovering around 7 have kept would be buyers on the fence. We want to dive deeper into the story. I will start with you. It is interesting, appear in canada, we have these fiveyear mortgages, so people are moving more quickly to this reality. Those with mortgages stateside are wondering and waiting it out. What do you see in terms of the impact on real estate . Great question. Firstly, thank you so much for having me on. Maybe it would be helpful to give a little bit of background. We are in opportunistic Real Estate Investor that has recognized a big dislocation for real estate between the public and private markets. We recognize we decided to raise private equity to try to meet the Public Market at big premiums and deliver big premiums to public shareholders after establishing a position and sometimes using tactics to compel them to prioritize. Interest rates have been a huge theme over the last couple of years. Continue on that. One sold to blackstone and one sold to pimco. Several months later and you are watching Columbia Property being one of the investors on mortgage folio portfolios. When you look at that space, do you think there is a lot more given the trajectory rates . That is a good question and a good point. It was our first foray into the space. We recognized a lot of pain in general. Just really highly discounted that stock. We had private investors with an interest in buying the stock at a premium and buying the company and its assets at a premium. We were able to deliver to shareholders that 40 premium or so. Over those, we unlocked 1. 3 billion. How much more of these deals can you see . Are you in dialogue with other companies that are publicly traded that could be experiencing some of the same pains . Anyone with a real estate portfolio today, to the extent they have refinanced over the last decade or so, they are Still Holding those loans and will likely be facing maturity walls and pain resulting from this wild increase in rates. Today we have, and our top 10 targets or so, 15 billion dollars of unrealized equity, coming from a view of Public Market investors. They are going to be in pain for the year two midterm. You can come with a buyer that is capitalized differently with new debt at lower, more conservative levels. They can often give public shareholders that premium. We have seen a real shift into private credit. How much has that played in your favor . I would say it is certainly a component of the new capitalizations coming to bear. There is still a big vacuum on the lending front that will probably expand in the coming orders and years, hoping to be filled by private equity providers. One of the other factors we are watching is the Regional Bank asked rozier. I imagine you are watching that as well. Is there anything in particular that you are watching most closely . Regional banks are incredibly exposed to real estate and it is concerning for a couple of reasons. Almost more than it is concerning because of credit or value deterioration, it is concerning because of rate expansion. There has been a wild explosion in the fed funds rate and borrowing costs, so this mitch matching is kind of implicit on Bank Balance Sheets on shortterm liabilities and longterm asset. It can create a really scary spiraling of problems cascading for banks, not just similar to what happened in the case of Silicon Valley and First Republic think. We have seen the office story being the pronounced and public. Do you think that some of the troubles that you are seeing floods into homes in ways that we do not see . I think it is certainly at risk of the same issues. I would say that it is Topline Revenue growth. Housing prices heavily expanded. People really big down for unsupportable levels to take on shortterm debt. Great to have you on the program. I am matt miller. This is bloomberg. Ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns . Ahhhhhh business license guidance . Ahhhhhh crossborder sales . Ahhhhhh item classification . Ahhhhhh does it connect with acc. . Ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh every business thats why comcast business de is launching theal. Mobile made free event. With our business internet, new and existing customers can get one year of unlimited mobile for free. Its our best internet. Powered by the next generation 10g network and with 99. 9 reliability. Plus one line of free mobile for an entire year. Its the mobile made free eventhappening now. Get started for just 39 a month. Plus, ask how to get one free line of unlimited mobile. Comcast business, powering possibilities. Romaine low volume in the u. S. But fireworks overseas. From studio two at bloomberg headquarters in new york, im romaine bostick. Scarlet and im scarlet fu. The s p 500 is higher, russell 2000 lower. Mega cap tech names leading the way up to the broader market. The term tone was set with asia trading. Persistent concerns about chinas slowing economy. The real a