Maintain that particular story into 2021. With a year for growth, or will it. Jobs report paints a picture that more federal stimulus is the key the key component to making this narrative stick and talks over the 900 billion andemic relief bill ground to halt. Any keyuggle to reach agreement. Today we expected to get the details on the plan, but that was postponed for the sum of 24 hours or so. We wait with postponed for 24 hours or so. Comeback willic be dependent on further push from stimulus. Joe, it is interesting today there was a little more risk aversion in the market we went into that ageold trade that is big tech. Joe big tech that is something, even on the socalled risk off days, it just means buying tech stocks that are doing phenomenally well. That is what counts as a down only tech0, when outperforms. Absolutely. The breath is incredible. Look at the number of stocks and the nasdaq composite surging, a Straight Line up. Some of the highest levels we have seen since early 2014. 100e are stocks above their day moving average. Pretty nice when the down these mean you are up in tech. Someou are starting to see folks making further bets on economic recovery. Sachse heard from goldman they are expecting 5 growth. This petition a 5 drop. You are also seeing other folks, out and say this could be the play for 2021. If youre looking for some to rebound, dividend stocks could be it. Taylor for more on the market action, lets welcome in katie how are people thinking about down, the final chapter of the year . Rine you are seeing more momentum build around the inflation hold that has taken hold and continue to two december p are taken a bit of a breather, but when i talk to Money Managers in the market, there is still a lot of optimism over when they look to 2021, where active managers could get an edge, theres a lot of hope you will see more different differentiation within the sectors. Maybe they will look to shine. Of course that is taking a wobble today. It goes back to the stimulus tugofwar the 900 billion package that is in talks right now, that is kind of slowed as congress hashes out the 2021 you arepending bill. Seeing some steam, out of that, but when i talk to Money Managers there does seem to be a lot of optimism. Romaine katie, caroline katie, what is priced in . Is the recent rant up based ramp up based on getting stimulus, or can it be sustained without it . It is interesting. When you think about the russell 2000 and the rotation trade i mentioned, there are two big ingredients the vaccine, a breakthrough if we get a viable vaccine that is distributed broadly. We need a bridge to get us there. A lot of folks are penned on fiscal stimulus and when that comes. It looks like that bridge will be delayed again. You are seeing some of that euphoria, out. When we are about what is priced in, it feels like investors keep trying to price in the reflation trade. S etf is a most 900 billion you do get the sense that investors are really eager to put their money behind this trade. We were talking about the treasury yields and the potential to get above the 1 mark and what that would mean. If there is a bet on the reflation trade, bet on yields going higher, if there is an expectation that maybe the fed would try to contain that, are those opposing areas here, or can they work together. Katie you could get higher yields about the fed responding. Another has been talk about 1 and what it could mean. Financial conditions that not tighten all that much. There was not a lot of strain in the system that could force the fed to act. Bloomberg had a great article maras. The 2021 inflation you could get a jump in section in the services sector. It will be hard to maintain that inflation jump without a tight labor market. If forecasters do generally expect inflation to rise, but in this average targeting regime, unless it stays there with a well, you will probably not see a fed very ego eager to contain that. Romaine a lot of Consumer Spending to underpin that pat you have 18 days to get gifts for caroline and i. Right here on this program, well talk about that stimulus plan still waiting on it. Why the recovery of the economy is very unlikely until a bipartisan deal is made. . We will dig into that. Coming up next. This is bloomberg. Romaine today we are focused on the economic recovery and what it means for investors. A lot of folks are looking to washington, d. C. , to see if there will be another round of stimulus, joe. It is like watching paint dry. Joe i think it is riveting maybe watching that is riveting. We are expecting to get more details, nothing really going, i guess it is moving as fast as paint drying. Still something expected in the range of 908 billion, but talks have slowed with all kinds of issues of liability, state and local aid all the same issues with no deal still causing there to be no deal. Romaine guys, it is way faster than brexit compared to paint drying. It is completely frozen. Meanwhile, Catherine Mueller will have more for us. Talk to us about what is predicated on the big stimulus deal, particularly from the economic part of the equation. Catherine thanks for having me on today. One thing we do is track the economic recovery from the kp w restoration index, which was an index we created to track weekly changes to a number of different data points. We tracked 13 different data locations, workshop on implement, air traffic, rail traffic we have been really bullish on the recovery from this index. It started at 100 in february. Hit a bottom of 50 in april when we were at the depths of the lockdown, and it has been a slow ared down to 79, where we last month. We have been bullish and that has tracked the financial stocks in the markets, but one thing we are keeping a close eye on recently again, to your question, this is why we are focused on the importance of the stimulus our index has fallen for the past five consecutive weeks in a row, and this past k you saw the big decline because the client we have seen since april. 7974. Romaine how are they waited romaine are there things they look at that maybe drive changes in the others . I look at mobility is a big aspect of it and i feel like that feeds into everything. If were not leaving the house, there is not going to be any economic activity. Catherine for sure. It is equally weighted. There are 13 different data points equally weighted. It is interesting. This past week, out of the 13 data points, 10 where negative. The three that were positive were airport traffic, retail sales, take into account black friday, and also jobless claims. Of negativeeeks data points on jobless clams. Jobless claims actually had a positive week. Everything else was negative. If kobe cases were higher or we all stayed home because it was thanksgiving week. But ours and Employee Work declined. I think it is a combination of thanksgiving week. Joe i am curious think in about it from a clients perspective people looking at the data. We have seen so much interest in the last six or so months or now data realtime data, open and mobility data do you think this crisis ends . A permanent shift in how people look at the economy were people will not accept waiting, or the weekly initial claims report or jobs report and want more realtime snap shots of the time of what is going on in the macro situation . I think so. It has been helpful for a spin we are financial analysts and we are financial analysts and were looking at it through the lens of how to recommend financial stocks to our clients. For us, we were waiting for gdp data that we only got monthly. So we are using this as a gauge. We are very excited about the vaccine, hopeful that there is stimulus, but there is also a truth out there so we are trying to balance the excitement around stimulus with the negative trends that we are seeing that might be real. Romaine with regards to the potential uptick we might see that the market is expecting here, is this something you will be synchronized among that of points, or will they be a little uneven. Catherine i think it is uneven. You can see in these two weeks the different data points move especially the past week with thanksgiving you saw that as well. You take that to some of the data points that really rallied throughout april through october, you know, it was Mortgage Applications that were very strong retail sales were very strong. Mobility got better in the summer months. That drew back recently. It does fluctuate week to week. One way we look at it is we break it into four different categories mobility, commercial, and unemployment. That tries to show us within those categories what is performing better in what is lagging, and the two broader categories that have lagged since april have been, as you would expect, unemployment and mobility. Those are the two biggest factors where we are looking to beforeimprovement recovery. Joe thank you. Our thanks to catherine mealor. Coming up to mirza and you may have messed with some of the newulus talking apples mac processor drying your reaction in the market. Intel falling as the Company Expands its move into chips. You will be discussing the next. This is bloomberg. Ine now to something you might have missed joe was talking about it, apple and its new chip. Joe, you did not miss it. Joe no club because i read bloombergs fantastic reporting on apples chip plan and that is indeed the stories, intel shares fell a little bit on the trading desk during todays trading on this news that apple continues to expand its chip ambitions. Getting a lot of impressive reviews. Potential a big game changer. Romaine for more insight, lets bring in stacy ragson. Stacy, this was an announcement a lot of folks had been expecting the promise of what apple seems to have put out with regards to performance how real is it . Stacy i think it is real. I have seen some of the reviews for the current chips, but it has been getting rave reviews. It looks really good. I think to your point, i was a little surprised that the news filled today was seen as a surprise because the m1, the current chip it is just the beginning. Apple said it would be a twoyear process, and they would not be improving there was no way they would not be improving markedly over the next couple of years. Caroline it feels like the pace of them improving it is what caught people off guard. Stacy the other thing you need to remember, apple has been working on this for a decade. It is not just like they just dove into the pool. They have shown significant improvement improvement in every generation of the chips. Is current m1 they delivered sort of a glorified ipad processor. I presume that is the bridge product. I am not surprised the next generation, the second generation, is where they are bringing their firepower. Joe stacy, obviously we think about with chips, intel, and this 86 architecture the history that you have the chip company, your Assembly Computer company, they buy the chip from intel and so forth will this be a fundamental change where there is some advantage to a company being horizontally integrated like this, make it the computer, making the the chip the box, and with its own needs . Is a something reshaping how the industry works . Stacy maybe. We seen it with apple and samsung. This is been a controversy for a while. Apple is the furthest along primarily you mention a number of factors. The chips, the hardware and the software i think it is a semiconductor and the software that together form the platform. Apple has full control over all of those aspects, and it absolutely is doing wonders for them. We will see how plausible it is for other players within the space to do this were actually maybe that connection is not as tight. Else, apple is showing it can be done and showing the potential of what is actually possible here given non86 architecture. Agoine you said a moment about how this has been something that has been a decade in the making. A lot of people look at the decision intel made more than a decade ago to sort of focus on those faster processors, not really focus on the mobile devices, which needed less attention with regard to speed and more attention to power consumption. That caused apple and a lot of players to start their own designs or research into this. This has been, sort of, a slowmoving train for intel. Im wondering why we did not see when itke a move sooner became apparent this is the future of computing . Stacy Santa Tracker you are right there has been a controversy. They did try. You are right there has been a controversy. There was a comment from the famous ceo who passed away, they were given a chance to be in the iphone and they turned it down and they said they were wrong. The cost to produce it was a lot less than they thought they would be in the volumes were 100 times what they thought it would be. Sa, if they thought obviously, if they knew that, they would have done it. Were late, is they and apple had run away with the premium side. All that was really left was the lowand and lowand, in the parts were so deficient intel was paying people to take them. If you want to talk about the peak mobile system, in this quarter, they lost 1. 1 billion on minus 6 billion in revenue. After that, and frankly, they have gotten out of that that is one thing the Management Team has been doing to clean things up. They missed the boat. At that point it was not possible to catch it anymore. Does anyone gain in particular im thinking of the chip designers. Arm is busy, gobbled up by nvidia. Stacy the more apple could gain it would be a positive for anyone. Rm goes, apple has an architectural license, so they use the arm instruction set, but it is the apple custom design built on that set. Apple has a Phenomenal Group of semiconductors. They are some of the best of not the best in the entire industry. Joe really appreciate your perspective on the latest news. Our thanks to stacy ragson,. A bnalyst at a bernstein. Lots more there. Romaine you have another show . Joe im sorry. I apologize. Go check it out. Romaine great podcast. I listened to it all the time. Caroline how could you . Traitor, dabbling with other cohosts. It really is amazing the diversification were getting from apple. It feels like just today, tech is a big winner. The matter what, apple will continue to outperform. Joe is that a call will we roll the tape a year from now and say carolines call from a year from now . Caroline no Investment Advice here. Romaine that is a nice back drop. Robbins a robbins a blue. Caroline i try. The airbnb pulled it out of the bag. Romaine living large. Bloomberg technology is up next. Romaine ted a great evening. This is bloomberg. Wanna lose weight and be healthier . Its time for aerotrainer. A more effective total body fitness solution. announcer aerotrainers ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time. It allows for over 20 exercises. Do the aerotrainer super crunch, push ups, aero squat. It inflates in 30 seconds. Aerotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds. Lose weight, look great, and be healthy. Go to aerotrainer. Com. Thats aero trainer. Com. Emily im emily chang in san francisco, and this is bloomberg technology. Coming up in the next hour, airbnb and doordash boost their prices. The doordash valuation would be double where it raised funding in june. We will look at how investor appetite is shaping up. Flag could salesforce and catalyzed a wave of ns