Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240711

This is widely expected. This is the vaccine that was found to be 94. 5 effective in the primary analysis. There is discussion about possibly having some sort of meeting later in the month with the fda to make the approval. We heard from officials over the weekend that they are going to try to approve it in fast order. If you take a look at markets, not the response you would think, at least not much. Jonathan it has been the diminishing marginal rate of the additional vaccine news in this market that has diminished over the last several weeks. Equity futures down 0. 4 percent. Expectations are already so well anchored by the vaccine news weve had over the last several weeks. We are down 0. 4 on the s p 500. In the bond market, yields up by a basis point or two to 0. 85 on the 10 year. The news isnt this morning. It is the cumulative impact of the last several weeks and now it is shaped the forward outlook under a much better way compared to what we face right now in the here and now into year end. Lisa i do think it is significant in this announcement that the Public Meeting with the u. S. Fda is being scheduled for december 17. I think this is interesting because perhaps we will get a better sense of the rollout, how quickly we could get vaccinated, how quickly we can stop Wearing Masks and move on with life. But i agree with you, this is baked in at this point. The question for a lot of people looking at markets after the wondernth, you have to what will give this another leg higher. How much good news is baked in . How much does reality have to catch up . Jonathan the rustle up a 20 , absolutely amazing. This vaccine has passed several trials over the last several months. Looking at the equity market more broadly, it is monday morning, which means we have to catch up with sam fazeli of bloomberg intelligence. Do you like what you hear, how quickly we can get to that destination this market is already pricing in . Sam good morning, jonathan. The update moderna put out is not just about the fact that they are filing, but also that theyve got a full analysis of 196 covert cases. The efficacy has come out at 94. 5 which is pretty close to what we already saw at the interim analysis. This to me sounds great. They havent told us what is going on with the elderly. They told us of the older people in the number of cases. What i can tell you is they are seeing no severe cases at all, so 100 efficacy against severe cases. That must mean that none of the older folk who are usually the ones who developed severe cases who developed severe cases have severe cases. Lisa youre seeing no reaction whatsoever in markets. Do we have a sense of what needs to happen for another leg of positive news . Do you think we could bring forward the schedule of vaccinations to possibly january or february, or are we still looking at april or may before is a Critical Mass of people inoculated . The problem sam will be coming to do that, you will need to companies to find ways of manufacturing more doses faster. That is possible, but i am pretty sure they are doing the absolute best they can to manufacture the maximum number of doses possible. Then you have the logistics of, youve got the doses. Youve got to convince people to come through the door to get vaccinated. I think what would probably start moving the needle next would be perhaps another Company Coming up with a positive result. That could be novavax from the u. K. Trials, which has just completed recruitment. That should come in the next few weeks, months. As we get news of the rollout actually happening, this many people have been vaccinated, etc. Jonathan sam, great to catch up on another monday morning with some better news. For our audience worldwide, if you are just tuning in, but tuning in, moderna requesting clearance for its vaccine as soon as today. Lets pick up the conversation with Michael Shaoul, market portfoliot management manager. Is there anything that could derail the optimism around a better outlook . Michael i dont think so, at least i hope not. Having said that, i will say that markets are quite stretched at the end of november, particularly the cyclical trade. It has had a hell of a move. Ive seen plenty of decembers which have had a cky couple of weeks in them. The economy is really firing on all cylinders at this point in time. I think a vaccine would helpful, but i dont think it is necessary. Ve had such aha for thesenth equities. Upgrade eurozone to overweight, with a potential bounce in relative earnings on the cards. That is just a flavor of what weve heard so much over the last several weeks around the international story. Is it something you buy into, too . Analysis doesnk often follow performance. Theres so much market cap tra pped in the stocks that had been working that any kind of reallocation away from that towards almost anything else is going to have an explosive impact. We would favor japan over the euro zone. I like what is in the nikkei. I liked that part of the world in general. I think that you had four or five years of tremendous outperformance by u. S. Tech against global equities, and i think youve unlocked a little bit of a rebound. The tricky thing Going Forward is if this is a true turning point, you look back in five years and say that really was something, that normally implies a problem in the stock that has been working. Certainly that was the case at the end of the late 1990s, certainly the case with em. Finished outperforming in 2011, so i think the tricky thing is if this021 outperformance continues, does that involve u. S. Tech or the popular portions of the u. S. Equity market going down . Lisa theres also a question of whether the pandemic still matters. Does it . Michael it depends. It matters tremendously for urban service economies. It doesnt matter a great deal, and may even be having a strange beneficial effect come for the durable goods economy. Think a slightly different question would be if we do have a successful vaccine and we arrive in the summer of 2021 in a better place medically and socially, does that come at the expense of the durable goods economy . Ignited a just selfperpetuating cycle in that part of the Global Economy . Lisa at what point do you take a message from the bond market that really hasnt participated in the rally . The idea that treasury yields have remained so suppressed despite the optimism we have seen everywhere else. Take a i think i would partial message from that. I do think that guidance has something to play, and i think that fixed income is something of a relative value play. Think that if the cyclical forces do continue, you will have higher u. S. Treasury yields. The u. S. Tenyear will find its or 1. 7 5 next year, which would hardly be a shocking level historically. Jonathan weaker dollar started to come through. The dollar in the sand for so many of you is 1. 20. We know that is the line in the sand for ecb because whenever we got to eurodollar at 1. 20, philip lane came out and backed it back down again. , thealls are lining up consensus view for 2021 is weaker dollar. Is that the side of the trade you are on, too . Michael weaker against the cyclically sensitive currencies. I think em currencies can gain a lot against it. Jonathan Michael Shaoul of market field asset management, ceo and portfolio manager, thank you. We know what happened last time eurodollar got near 1. 20. Do we see a repeat of that and start to get near that level again . Lisa you have to wonder at what point people care about the data. I know i am going to be debbie downer, but we are not out of the woods when it comes to the virus. Is the point sluggishness going to weigh on the euro, especially if you see Something Different in the u. S. . Jonathan you cant argue with the data. Claims last week, not great. The week before, not great. No one thinks it is going to get better anytime soon. The question youve got to ask, what would derail expectations for 2021 when we have had such encouraging vaccine news over the last month. And quite clearly, as weve experienced, two claims data prints isnt getting it done. Lisa and when people talk about scarring, especially some of the Bigger Companies taking this time to retrench, that is going to have longer lasting implications. I will say, michael dart a came out vehemently against the bears , saying they are going to use the sagging data to edify this narrative, but really the recovery is intact, and will continue to be, based on the savings rate, the stimulus, and the strength we have seen. Jonathan did it feel personal when you got that email . Lisa 1000 , yes. [laughter] jonathan have you heard from mr. Keene at all . Lisa i have not. He is in a turkey,. Jonathan neither have i in a turkey coma. Jonathan neither have i. Hes making cooking videos. Ive had the tom keene breakfast before, and i can tell you if you go out for breakfast, you better hope that mrs. Keene is cooking and not mr. Keene. Tom keene is back on wednesday. It might be tomorrow. Who knows . He just turns up whenever he wants to. On the s p 500, we are softer by 0. 3 . Heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. Ritika the first word news, im ritika gupta. It is the second biggest takeover this year. S p global has agreed to buy ihs market for 39 billion in stock. Current stockholders will earn a. 6 earne than 0 of thee more than 0. 6 stock. Modern is on track to have one of the first vaccines approved in the u. S. A group of up plus ministers couldnt reach an agreement of opec ministers could not on output cuts before a full meeting of the cartel. The uae and kazakhstan opposed a proposal to maintain the current cuts. Online shoppers in the u. S. Are expected to spend a record breaking 12. 7 billion. On cyber monday it is the busiest ecommerce day of the year. Retailers such as amazon, walmart, and best buy have been preparing for months. This will be the ultimate test for their new delivery capacity. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. There is light at the end of the tunnel because we will really be seeing vaccines soon. We likely, almost certainly, are going to be vaccinating a portion of individuals in the First Priority before the end of december. Jonathan that is the good news from tony fauci, the National Institute of Infectious Diseases director. From new york city this morning, and the city, bloomberg surveillance and the city of london, bloomberg surveillance. In the fx market, give bloomberg surveillance bloomberg surveillance in the fx market, we get closer to in the bond market, yields up by two basis points to 0. 8586 . Where were yields when we started the month . Pretty much exactly where they are right now. Lisa which is frankly, to me, the story of the month. I know this is, again, debbie downer. Jonathan its what people expect. Its what they miss. [laughter] happy to have you back. Carryon. Lisa i am just wondering why are bonds not confirming the optimism we are seeing in stocks. Are they not confirming the reflationary trade, or is this confidence that they are going to accelerate their bond purchases . I dont know that the story is consistent. Jonathan ive spoken to a lot of people who think it is the latter, but we will find out. s kevinus now from d. C. Cirilli, bloombergs chief washington correspondent. Just how quickly can we get these things approved down in washington . Kevin it is going to be fast and furious. The speed of this is just as interesting as whether or not democrats are going to be supportive of this. I am going to be paying careful attention to what is elect joe bidens Transition Team has to say this week about the vaccination front. We should note that the communication between the outgoing and Incoming Administration finally beginning in earnest, and of course, there have been transition briefings on operation warp speed, on the issues of the vaccination front as well, despite the politics that have surrounded the issue all around. Lisa there also is today the first intelligence briefing for joe biden and Kamala Harris. How important is that . Kevin massively important. Some extent, it is really what the conversation surrounding these intelligence and National Security briefings. I can recall when senator lindsey graham, republican from south carolina, weeks ago called on President Trump to make sure those transitions were Going Forward. You look at the development in the last 72 hours with iran, you look at the questions that have been coming up with whether or not north korea is going to be looking to test missiles as they frequently do anytime there is a changing of administrations, and this is crucial to National Security. Jonathan what i think we have touched on is really important. I want to get your view on where the administration is taking things. Theres still a couple of months left in this administration. They have objectives in the middle east. What are the objectives, and do you expect them to look at achieving them in the several weeks they have left . Kevin first and foremost, the american objective is to make sure that iran does not maintain does not obtain a nuclear weapon. That unites democrats as well as republicans. Secondly, the mechanism in which to achieve that is very different from both political parties. The Trump Administration had withdrawn from the iran Nuclear Disarmament deal, arguing it was a disaster for the region, as well as a disaster for americas ally in israel. ,he Incoming Administration with these intelligence briefings, is really going to have to assess the new geopolitics of the region. Tony blinkens middle east is going to be much different than the middle east of former secretary of state Hillary Clinton and the obama administration. That is where things like renegotiating the iran Nuclear Disarmament deal get more different. The president , for his part, just to go back to the first part of your question, he has been tweeting still about iran. He celebrated the killing of the Nuclear Scientist, the fifth Nuclear Scientist to be killed in iran dating back to 2010. Jonathan just a word on tony blinken, if you can. When we got the announcement of who would be going where in this cabinet, a lot of people said it was down the middle. Confirmation would be very straight forward. Things changed over the weekend. Kevin i think the 2024 race is up and running for the republican primary, similarly to how progressives and democrats like Vice President elect Kamala Harris and senator Elizabeth Warren at the time came out and opposed every single nomination that then president elect trump had been naming there is it had been naming during his transition process. Upon my reporting, antony incredibly wellrespected respected in senior circles in washington, d. C. I do not perceive that he will confirmed, to get based on the conversation im having. Based on the conversations i am having. Lisa is the legal conversation for President Trump happening at this point . Kevin it is still a conversation in certain conservative circles, but i dont hear about it when i talk to staff. Lisa lets put it another way. Is the legal team now Rudy Giuliani . Kevin yes. [laughter] i will keep it very simple, yes. Lisa President Trumps acknowledgment that he is unlikely to get this to the Supreme Court is basically the death of this legal team. Kevin exactly. I dont mean to laugh off the question because it is incredibly important, but even when this is going on, in the days after the election i was talking to staffers, as well as Campaign Staffers on the republican side who were really scratching their head. Some of them didnt know the strategy was. I do want to notice that republicans, especially 2020 four circle republicans, are trying to ash especially 2024 especially 2024 circle republicans, are trying to plan this out, how states should be called and election security. Democrats are saying you had an opportunity to look at this when there is a five when there was a bipartisan vehicle led by Amy Klobuchar to bolster election security. I remember talking about election security, as well as mailin ballots, but this is something that was discussed months ago, and in fact, other republicans are wondering why the republicans and the president didnt embrace mailin ballots in some of these battleground states last spring when this issue was first raised. Jonathan just to end things here, this is the key distinction. This is not about security. This is about counting them, and how you come the boats. Youve got to get everyone to agree on how to count the ballots. Kevin in may ways, the patchwork of regulation around the country is by design from a security perspective. It is a lot harder and more difficult to penetrate and infiltrate an election system when there is a patchwork around the country then it is to just take out one universal system. On the one hand, the conversation is a bit more nuanced because of that. Toathan kevin, always good catch up. Kevin cirilli, bloomberg chief washington correspondent. Plenty of news coming through this morning. We got the news around a vaccine this monday morning. Expected to request clearance for its covid next scene its Covid Vaccine in the u. S. And europe as soon as today. We heard from the u. S. Surgeon general, saying he would promise rapid review of these kinds of applications, so how quickly will we hear back . Lisa and how quickly will we actually get the vaccine this trip did . When do you expect to get the vaccine distributed . When do you expect to get the vaccine . Jonathan me personally . I expect that people in my group could be the middle of next year. Lisa that is my sense as well. Jonathan good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance. Its moving day. And while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. It only takes about a minute. Wait, a minute . But what have you been doing for the last two hours . Delegating . Oh, good one. Move your Xfinity Services without breaking a sweat. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Xfinity makes moving easy. Go online to transfer your services in about a minute. Get started today. Jonathan from london and new york, this is bloomberg surveillance, live on bloomberg tv and radio. A bit defensive after a massive month. On the session, futures 0. 2 on this b5 hundred. On the s p 500. The nasdaq up about 0. 3 . The russell down about 0. 5 . On the month, the russell up to 20 . What a month of gains for the small caps in america. Switch of the board. As we get the vaccine news to come through and really anchor expectations for 2021, a lot of people talk about the value trade, the sickle clade the cyclical trade come of international versus u. S. Trade. Up almost 15 . 0, that is the best monthly gain almost on record. Keep an eye on that as we go into the close today. 15 , thekkei in japan, best month since 1994. Jp morgan adding to the list this morning, saying this is where they expect the gains to be in 2021. Overweight europe on the stoxx 600, and going neutral on the United States for 2021 on the better outlook, this idea that we get the cyclical rebound. You see it in the commodity market. They expect more of the same in International Equities as well. Lisa weve gotten this head fake many times for. The question is how much this can actually stick Going Forward, given the fact that we are still in the pandemic. That is the issue, right . We are not out of the woods. Jonathan this is about better or worse, and most people assumed that as the months go on, the outlook looks better, not worse. That all comes down to the price of the story. The price of the story is getting more expensive over the last several weeks. The story that we will hear again and again is the valuation gap between europe and the United States is still attractive, and there are still legs here for 2021. That is the consensus view, and we have seen the consensus view wrong before. As kit juckes of socgen pointed out, it is important to remove her that sometimes the consensus view is right, and when using about the last time we had global synchronized growth was going into 2017. I feel like for many people, it is also that moment again in the fx market, which is why we have seen people lining up to get behind that dollar weakness story. Lisa i am smiley right now because i am thinking about tom keene and how he is probably contemplating his allcash right now, as with get out the price of the story and where we go from here. The price of the story in the oil market right now is a little conflicted after an amazing month of gains for the crude industry. We have the opec meeting for today and tomorrow to agree on possible production cuts. The question is increasing production. Julian lee joining us now. There does not seem to be an agreement. What is the Sticking Point . Julian the Sticking Point really is whether they extend the deep cuts they have made so of 2021,the first part or whether they start to ease those cuts as was originally planned in the deal they struck back in april. Week asooked last though it was going to be a straightforward decision between do they extend the cuts or do they let them ease as they are supposed to, and if they extend them, would that be for one quarter . Would it be for two . Would it be somewhere in between, or may be the first month or two . Things got a little complicated over the weekend, when the saudis and the russians called an unexpected meeting of the ministers from what is called the joint ministerial monitoring committee, a subgroup that sort of oversees the deal, and they came away from that with no real agreement on how they should proceed, and some countries seeming to dig their heels in over whether others have complied fully or not with what they said they would do so far. The whole thing is starting to look a little bit more complicated, and that is part of the reason that prices have come off little bit. Jonathan it always comes down to the saudis at the end of the day, and russia as well. What do they want ultimately, and will they get it . Guest ultimately i think what they want is to delay the easing of the cuts. The saudis had been suggesting that they delay it for a quarter , from the start of january to the start of april. I am not sure they are going to get that in full. Theres lots of talk about finding a consensus, and people having to shift their position a bit. Ideas are beginning to emerge on may be a shorter extension of the current cuts, or may be more gradual relaxation of them rather than adding back the total of nearly 2 Million Barrels a day, rather than adding that in one go, perhaps adding it in stages. Sent from someal countries real dissent from some countries, the United Arab Emirates in particular, who were chastised for overproducing in the summer. They have made up on that overproduction by deeper cuts, but other countries havent. They are arguing that they shouldnt extend the cuts until everybody has made up for their past cheating. Jonathan always great to get your view on things. Julian lee, thank you. We have seen the best and worst of policymaking worldwide this year. Andep reflecting on spring what saudi arabia and russia got up to, and that has got to go down as one of the worst policy decisions of this year. Out of everything we have seen, that is up there. Lisa just a reminder for people who dont remember, that is when futures went negative on oil prices. So youve got to think they are not going to do a repeat of that. There is a question i keep thinking about. How has the decline of u. S. Shale production affected the dynamic . Does opec actually emerge from this ironically with more power, despite the fact that they made that catastrophic error in spring . 47. 62. brent crude, joining us now is bnp paribas head of commodity strategy. Always good to get you on the show. Again . Sorry, come jonathan your read on opec right now. What is it . Guest listening to julians comments, there are a number of issues ahead of this meeting, but we at be a bear. Believe they would but we at bnp paribas deliver they will we at bnp paribas believe they will deliver three months of cuts, and it gives flex ability to reassess options in q2. As usual, there will be debate, but given what we heard from opec and saudi in particular, i think it is time for opec to be proactive and adjust to market circumstances. Jonathan given how powerful the forces are ahead of 2021, how important is this agreement as far as your outlook for next year is concerned . Ofry opec is facing a bit a dichotomy when it comes to oil demand, and particular in china, increasing demand in korea. In the west, u. S. , europe, demand is stuttering. I think what opec needs to do is get over the q1 hurdle in terms of demand weakness in western oecd economies, and that takes us over to q2 which we start having wider distribution of a Covid Vaccine, and onwards i think they could progressively begin to increase production again. So it is getting over that q1 hurdle that is going to be important for the market, and after that reassess at the next ministerial meeting in 20 when he won. Lisa i remember in 2021. Lisa i remember when we were talking about u. S. Shale production, and that was the swing factor when it comes to oil prices, and that opec was losing power. Has that dynamic changed completely based on the decline in shale we have seen this year . Harry i dont think it has changed completely. It has certainly just postponed. In that sense, it is going to take some time before the u. S. Shale patch decides to spend more money in new rigs and get the production backup. We are going to need oil prices, especially in wti, to end up somewhere around 55 per barrel. If you were to believe the Dallas Fed Survey when it comes to Win Companies would significantly increase drilling, after that it means the rebound in u. S. Crude production coming from shale at the earliest is 2021. Impact shale is not an on opec for the remainder of this year and 22 anyone. This year in 2021. Until 2022. Ned lisa i want to build on this idea that we have to get to 55 a barrel. What has to happen for us to get up 10 a barrel, up more than where we are today given the fact that we dont expect International Travel to take off in the very near term, and given the fact that we do see such an uneven recovery . Harry i guess the first thing to remember is that we are talking about oil futures, and oil futures move faster and ahead of the fundamentals and ahead of the fundamentals in the real economy. So when we get that vaccine approval and when we start getting widespread distribution sometime in q2, we are going to see readjustment of expectations around the timing of economic recovery, so the market will look past the weakness in q1 to the recovery in the second half of the year, and prices will reset accordingly. Second, of course, opec has two continuous efforts. Its efforts has to continue its efforts. Its efforts are paying off, and it has to continue delivering those cuts to avoid those inventory builds and pursue a rebalancing of the market and draining those excess inventories we built up at the beginning of this year. Jonathan always great to catch up. Rry, thank you. Opec Decision Just around the corner. Crude on the month absolutely flying. Energy equities up by 34 on the s p 500. Energy stocks with a bid. Crude up by about 26 . In credit, ccc spreads have tightened 200 basis points through november. I imagine energy is a key part of that story. Lisa i have to wonder what this is baking in. In terms of International Travel, you know more than anyone, the International Corridor hasnt really been opened. They are trying to make inroads there, but we are not the cearley going to see Business Travel come back in any but we are not clearly going to see Business Travel come back in any meaningful way anytime soon. Jonathan if you are in an industry that was struggling before covid, i imagine you will be struggling after covid, too. This is just a relative game of things Getting Better relative to two months ago. They look better into next year off the back of this vaccine news. Alongside Lisa Abramowicz this morning, im jonathan ferro. Tom keene on sabbatical. [laughter] lisa nice. Jonathan i get to say that. Thats my come back. , 1 . S down six this is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. Two of wall streets biggest data providers are joining together. S p global has agreed to buy ihs market for about 39 billion in stock, the secondbiggest deal of the year. Proposed tie up is part of the race for scale. The industrys largest players are trying to capitalize on surging demand for data and analytics. Bloomberg lp, the parent of bloomberg news, competes with ihs markets and s p global in providing Financial Analytics and information. Berg has learned that joe biden will name longtime democratic bloomberg has learned that joe biden will name a long time official for budget chief. Going shopping for quant firepower. The alternative asset is set to buy Technology Driven credit investing firm dci. The dci purchase will allow blackstone to wade deeper into the world of Investment Grade bonds. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. , in the runup to christmas andumer spending increases, coming into next year, i think the prospect of the vaccine brings us into what promises to be a pretty strong the 21, at 21,t from strong to pick at least from an advertising one,ective strong 2020 at least from an advertising perspective. Jonathan Monetary Policy decision are going out of their way say we wont get in the way for the next year or two, and i think fiscal policy makers arguably need to thing about doing the same. You cannot hang out the prospect of tax rises to come in 2021, 2022, 2023. Dont even talk about it. Keep the consumer confident without having to think about saving money because theyre worried about taxes going up. For me, that is something on the policy side that needs addressing. It has been a failure here in the u. K. From chancellor sunak. Lisa i do wonder from a markets perspective, lets say they throw money at the problem. Lets say. You see incredible growth. Lets say in consumers asked lets say you see in cripple growth lets say you see incredible growth. Lets say consumers have money. What effect does that have if you start to see inflation creep higher . Jonathan Lisa Abramowicz not happy when yields go down. Lisa abramowicz not happy if yields go up. [laughter] are you going to be in 32021 be an through 2021 . Lisa tom didnt come in because he had to sit this one out. Jonathan im sure it had more to do with a bottle and a lot less to do with inflation. Joining us now, bank of americas senior retail analyst. Are we shopping less, or just shopping somewhere else . I think where people are shopping has certainly changed. Theres been this shift to online, and i thing some of that has been intentional on the part of the retailers. What we have seen this Holiday Season is an early start to promotional activity, which began as early as november 1 for a lot of retailers. Promotet has been to these online channels, partly for health and safety reasons to avoid overcrowding in the stores, but also because the retailers have been seeing demand moving that direction, so they are not trying to fight against it. What we have seen a lot of this Holiday Season in particular, which was relatively new, was the move towards promoting Curbside Pickup and buy online, pick up instore, which is beneficial to the consumer because they get the product sooner than they would if they option,the ship to home and they avoid having to spend the cost of shipping that product to the consumer, so it is a winwin situation. But in general, we have seen a shift in spending also. This is longerterm, which has been towards home categories, away from things like travel and restaurants and entertainment, so those dollars have been shifted into the home, so we think this Holiday Season is really going to be about these home categories. Jonathan that takes us to home depot, which has had a fantastic year through 2020. For many people, the vaccine is kryptonite. I wonder what it means for the chopping trends for the shopping trends that have been reinforced. What are your thoughts on that . Liz for Home Improvement retailers like home depot, lowes, there has been a big benefit from people staying at home and investing in their homes, making those upgrades, doing the projects they put off for a while. But as we look beyond this year and into 2020 one, even post vaccine, one of the big factors we think is going to be a driver for next year is the fact that people have moved from urban markets into suburban markets. Housing metrics are on fire. What that means is there is this whole new slew of homeowners that become consumers and become Home Improvement customers for life, essentially. For the next few years, that will continue to be of benefit. Even though these retailers are up against this difficult comparison in 2021, there are longerterm tailwinds at play here, which are really those housing metrics that continue to trend positively. Lisa i do have to wonder, a lot of people have been home a lot. They cant go on vacation. They are spending their money on the place where they stay. When they can go on vacation, when they can leave their homes, they will. Ever when i talk to, especially if they have small kids come up to get out. How does that challenge the thesis you just presented . Liz i think there will be eventually a return, or may be pentup demand for getting out of the house. At some point people will go back to travel. I think it will take time because comfort wont be immediate once there is a vaccine. It will take several months or quarters until people really feel comfortable traveling as they normally would. So for at least the next probably the majority of 2021, there is still going to be this continued time spent in the home and focus on the home, but after that, there is probably going to be some period of payback, or certainly deceleration. The speed of that will be contended upon the speed at which vaccines are distributed. Risk that growth will decelerate. I dont get as possible to continue with this 15 to 30 yearoveryear growth phase, but i also dont think that is what is priced into the stocks. These are trading at pretty modest multiples relative to their historical rates, so they are not trading at companies that will continue to put up 20 to 30 growth yearoveryear. Jonathan before we let you go, we talk a lot about companies, retailers pushing people to go to ecommerce. Can you walk me through whether bed, bath beyond have sorted things out for when things finally reopen properly to get a better experience . It is overwhelming and there. Theres too much stuff. Are they doing something about it . Liz i agree. The new ceo was the chief merchant at target, so the experience he brings to that role is certainly what the company needed. Theink you are right, floortoceiling stuff, pillows you cant even reach up on the highest possible shelf, it is overwhelming. I think they are changing the merchandising in a pretty big way, and that is going to be a really big part of the turnaround story there. Jonathan liz, great to catch up. Good to see you. Liz suzuki of bank of america securities, thank you. Lisa, the last thing i need is more choice. [laughter] pillows to the sky. Just give me one so i can go in and walk out of there with it. Lisa you might be in the minority, at least in the United States. There arent that made people who dont. As a parent, it is a fantastic activity to bring your child. Jonathan how much is a kid spending in there . Are you taking kids on a field day to bed, bath beyond . Lisa it is an experience. You want a decisive experience, but the idea of choice, of exploration. Jonathan go in with an injective. Execute with an objective. Exit cute exit cute. Get in, get out. From london and new york this morning, good morning. Heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. The nightmare scenario for markets would be if the unlimit rate were to begin to go higher the Unemployment Rate were to begin to go higher. Even before the pandemic, we had a lot of frailty. Measured. T it to be we are still in a deep recession. It is time to get in big end spend big in order to restructure the economy. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and Lisa Abramowicz. From new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning. Good morning to you all. This is bloomberg surveillance ,