Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Daybreak Europe 20240711

Chances of a compromise look slim. And trump says he will leave the wine house if joe bidens is confirmed by the Electoral College but says he may never concede. Good morning to you. Happy day after thanksgiving, it is black friday. We are seeing different sentiments. We saw Global Equities gain but sentiment is subdued. S p 500 futures flat. America comes back online after thanksgiving. We see money moving into the treasury markets down more than three basis. Money moving into havens like the yen. Up against most major peers. Wti taking a leg lower. 44 in that handle. Outputama going into the production meeting monday. Iraq, uae, they do not want to resume sales. Potentially drama. I want to show you the fantastic chart on the terminal if we can switch up the boards. Global stocks, even though they market, theyin the are on track for the best on record, up 13 . Best month on record since we have been tracking the data since 1990. We are seeing exuberance in the Global Equity market but risks remain. One is germany. Europes biggest economy. In the vaccine front, astrazenecas ceo told bloomberg exclusively its shot is likely headed for an additional global trial. That is an effort to clear up the confusion surrounding the latest results. Joining us to break it down is the chief economist at bny mellon investment management. We continue to see this continuous uptick in virus cases. California surpassing one million come one point 2 million. Germany also north of one million cases. In germany as well, they announced lockdowns before christmas. Some regions going into tough tears. Tiers. What do you make of this . How is it going to affect growth across the continent . It reminds me things are pretty tough at the moment. But the fall quarter, europe may see a small contraction. My estimate i have mentioned down thef you shut economy, it puts a third of gdp at risk. I think it would be about half as dramatic this time. What that is my starting point. European growth will be lower, around 3 this quarter. The markets are processing all of that. Of course, as you say, the fact that coronavirus cases are still picking up strongly is something to beast concerned about. They are looking forward and balancing the bad news against the good news of the vaccine. That news does remain, on balance, good. Annmarie we do have different measures across whether or not you are living in germany, france, or the u. K. Yount to get a sense who do think is doing the best, in terms of gdp . N2 is going to struggle the most . To be honest, i suspect there is not a huge amount of difference between them. If you really push me, i suspect the u. K. And france will see larger downturns than germany, just because germany during the economyckdown, more stronglyck during the Third Quarter. Having said that, the german situation does look significantly worse than it did last time. I think we take some comfort which point to a smaller impact this time around. That is something to keep and i on. Broadly speaking, i think that is annmarie the vaccine front has been hope for. The Astrazeneca Ceos get bloomberg, showing the bumps in the road. What are we looking at in terms of when we will see a vaccine in proper rollout and affecting mobility, getting back to precrisis levels . Bump in the road is the right way of putting this. This was always going to happen, given the speed with which vaccines have been brought to market. Clearly it is going to be a little bit bumpy getting on through to the production vaccine. I think it is unequivocally good nude news. It does not surprise me markets have bounced as much as they have. If you ask me for a best guess, our assumption is vaccines will start to be rolled out before the end of the year. They will sort of hit the road running around the Second Quarter of next year. The result is the u. S. And european economies might go through sort of an air pocket in the fall quarter and possibly part of the First Quarter. Second quarter, i think the second and Third Quarter of next year could be quite dramatic and strong indeed. Big news ise other hungary and poland doubling down when it comes to the stimulus package, which was hailed as a huge win for europe. How does this affect growth . Great, youin is not are absolutely right. The fact that much is hinging on that stimulus package, and politics is getting in the way of that, is in a negative is a negative. I suspect at the end of the day, the package will get through. The funds will get through to some degree. Of course, we have seen a large degree of stimulus within europe and the euro area. Much of which is yet to be felt. Couple that with a huge amount of monetary stimulus from the ecb, there is a lot of tailwind from the stimulus side. Not just in europe but around the world. Can a recalibration really deliver what is needed in the sense if we do not get a stimulus package soon, the ecb may have to do more on that front . Think that is the calibration the market is make at the moment. It is one of the reasons european bonds are in the short run. Cannotent to which you rely on fiscal stimulus means the pressure falls back on the central bank to do more. The ecb stands ready to step in if required. I think we have heard from Christine Lagarde she would much rather see a big fiscal stimulus package then have to step in. Ready toly they stand do so. Fixed income markets are making that calculation. Annmarie we are going to get your take on u. S. Stimulus. I know you have a number in mind. That is coming up with our chief economist at the ny mellon investment management. Lets get a recap of the first word news. Heres laura wright. Minister Boris Johnson is warning of long months ahead in the fight against coronavirus he says agland is set to go back to tiered system of restrictions. London is avoiding the toughest rules which are falling in cities like an chester in birmingham. Chinas latest target in its fat with australia is wide. It is set to impose antidumping duties of more than 100 of exports. It follows a raft of other measures are in imports from coal and copper to bali. China is the biggest buyer of australian wine. Official is open to allowing some banks to pay dividends. Prefersmember says he lenders are prudent, but he understands the measure comes with costs. Global news, 24 hours a day, on quicktake,bloomberg powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. This is bloomberg. Annmarie thank you so much. Coming about the program up in the program, giving it the old college try. President trump says he will relinquish power if the Electoral College backs biden, but still claims the election was a fraud. You are watching bloomberg television. Be a very hardto thing to concede because we know there was massive fraud. So as to whether or not i can get this apparatus moving this because time is not on our side, Everything Else is on our side, facts are on our side. Annmarie the president of the United States speaking to reporters saying it would be hard for him to concede. He added if the Electoral College were to affirm joe upens win, he would give power. Happy thanksgiving, another american abroad. The closest, you think, President Trump may get to an actual concession speech . Thanksgiving to you, too. It may well be. Powerd he will relinquish only if the Electoral College win, but itbidens is expected to do that. I dont think we are going to hear there is no indication we are going to get an actual concession speech from the sitting president. Be the closest people calm. He remained defiant in his talk with reporters before he spoke to the military. He returned to this series of attacks criticizing the election and how it was handled. Republicaneorgias secretary of state an enemy of the people. He is still being defiant, but he did say when he was pressed, he said it would be a hard thing to concede but if the Electoral College confirms joe bidens victory, he said this election is a fraud but that he would go ahead go along with her decision. Front,e in the lawsuit has there been any fresh evidence of Election Fraud as the president claims5 . There really have not. A number of states have certified the election. The objections of donald trump do not seem to be going anywhere. He acknowledged too he is time to out of present evidence of this fraud. Signaling frankly the evidence may never come. Annmarie i want to quickly ask you, if he does not attend president joe bidens inauguration, how big of a deal with that be . It would be historic. We knew some president s who were not necessarily the best of friends to their successors, but everyone has always invited the new president and their spouse to the white house beforehand. There has always been picture taking and that kind of thing. They have always been there at the ceremony itself, looking gracious. Itwould be ceremonially, would be something quite different. People are already factoring this in. This has been a very unusual election, and an unusual presidency. President trump does things in his own way. A lot of people are not even expecting him to be there but it would be historic and sent a different signal about the transition of power and the u. S. Low expectations. Thank you for your time. Enjoy your thanksgiving leftovers this morning. U. S. Markets back up and running after the thanksgiving holiday. It is black friday so the focus has moved to the retail sector. Well labor market data has disappointed, with jobless claims ticking higher, Consumer Spending is trucking along. You can see that arise from the depths of the lows. The chief economist at be away mellon investment is with us. I want a sense of what is going on with the u. S. Consumer. What is your sense of that mixed data . Will we see this trend higher of consumer demand . As you said, it is mixed. Positive echoes for the u. S. Consumer are strong. Unusuales this an recession. Personal incomes have risen. Savingsusehold roundabouts of 20 of personal income. Cash bounties. You have essentially a low level of leverage compared to history. All of that for me adds up to a fair amount of pentup demand for you the u. S. Consumer for the u. S. Consumer. We saw some of that coming through when the restrictions were relaxed. Much depends on what we were talking about earlier, whether or not they allow that to happen. If it does, i expect they will have a fair amount of buying power. Annmarie we see disposable income ballooning in the u. S. Revenge demand we potentially see today. You also look at the trends, how social behavior may impact productivity. What do you think from the pandemic will stick when we finally come out of this covid crisis . Yeah, that is a huge question. Covid will change some things permanently, we are going to have to reassess dramatically. Seenof the trends we have i think during the crisis will persist. The shift toward online may be away from spacebased services, a hit for experiential services, that kind of thing for some time. That said, those may be the long run outcomes of this. Second and Third Quarter and next year, if we get the vaccine and this pentup demand, one of the first things people will want to do is doing some of this stuff they have not been able to do for some time. You might see things like travel pop in the middle of next year. It is a difficult call long run. R thing toharder judge. What we will see is Consumer Preferences rebalancing over the next two or three years, but a volatile outlook for the next year against what if we get a vaccine is a positive background. Annmarie there is a new administration coming in. We are waiting for the Senate Runoff in georgia to find out how much weight the republicans will have in the senate to review have a high number in terms of fiscal aid you expect. In the senate. You have a high number in terms of fiscal aid. To say a lotght depends on the runoff in georgia and the nature of the senate. What a divided government out to work. S , it is a much smaller number than markets were expecting a month or so ago when the big expectation was for a blue wave or Something Like that. In a sense, recession expectations from a high number are down from 2. 53 trillion. It might be less different difficult than some people think. I expect lawmakers and the president worked to get toward that number. It is very uncertain. It is that uncertainty combined with the air pocket, we could see some with the uncertainty combined with the air pocket, we could see some volatility and weak numbers. That is the number the administration will be aiming for. Annmarie what we are seeing with jobless claims, that potential deterioration, could we see more deterioration if we do not get a stimulus package . Yeah, we could. If we dont get a stimulus package, all bets are off. I you combine there is have been relatively positive but there is a downside out there. We do not get the stimulus and the vaccine turns out not to be as effective as we thought. Throughction rates rise the First Quarter and carryon, absolutely, that kind of world which is odds against but could happen, that kind of world you do see jobless claims continue to rise. Unemployment continued to stay high. And then the outlook is different. I think in the balance of news we have had, i think that kind of combined outcome is odds against. Annmarie thank you so much for joining us this morning. The chief economist at bny mellon management. Next, has the great rotation installed . And the move to cyclicals we saw earlier in the week restart . That debate next. This is bloomberg. Morning, 6 24 in the city of london. Cyclicalsation into and values is the rotation into cyclicals and value stalled or could we see further moves . Stallcertainly saw it wednesday before thanksgiving. A little bit of data suggesting the recovery was in doubt. When you look at the russell 1000 index, it is on track for a third monthly gain of outperformance against the russell 1000 growth index. Goldman sachs reckons this will continue. Asy are saying stay prorisk they expect a strong recovery from the covid19 shock. Economists have kept global weight Global Equities and underweight bonds. Fund flows are definitely doing the switch with investors rotating into stocks trading in low valuations and piling into asian equities and also emerging assets. Another says undervalued shares will start to outperform Growth Stocks in the next sixeight months if you see a vaccine. Hes talking about travel, leisure, financials. Previruset back to levels and could even outperform. He is favoring shares in hong kong because they are cheap and they are going to benefit from the rebound you are seeing in china. Annmarie tell us what is going on with ray dalio. Setting up a new Family Office close to your home. Singapore,me, and the bridgewater Hedge Fund Manager setting up a Family Office and the lion city. As we see some outperformance here in asia. Singapore has been trying to attract the superrich through their Global Investor program which fast tracks permanent residence. Family offices mens the personal households of the worlds richest households. Those it asia have outperformed their global peers. Those in asia have outperformed their global peers. Behindthe billionaires heidi lau, the chinese hot pot restaurant, adding to the growth of wealth here in the lion city. Annmarie thank you so much. An update from the lion city. Lets get a check on where we trade this friday morning. It is 6 27 in london. We are seeing divergence when we look at u. S. Equity futures and europe. S p 500 futures flat, but they are in the green. We could see lower volumes today. It is the day after thanksgiving and many take that off. Youre a stock futures dipping into the red. Futures dipping into the red. Still raging, germanys virus and cases inillion new york hit a new high. Astrazeneca says they will undertake a new vaccine trial. This is bloomberg. Mberg. Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Annmarie good morning. I am Annmarie Hordern. Here are your top stories. Stocks mixed as germany coronavirus cases top 1 million and new infections in new york hit a seven month high. Astrazeneca ceo tells bloomberg it will undertake a new vaccine trial. Hungary and poland vowed to veto package. Stimulus chances of a compromise look slim. Willresident trump says he leave the white house if joe thens win is confirmed by Electoral College. Happy friday. Good morning to you. 6 30 and the city of london. 7 30 a. M. In the continent. Some of that momentum starting to stall. We see sentiment a bit softer. Futures across the u. S. Come up 0. 1 percent. Relatively flat. We do have money been into treasuries with the yield coming down and money moving into havens like the yen. Up against most of its major peers. You can see some risk come down, 45 flat. Some drama going into the opec meeting next week as iraq and the uae want to resume more sales. The likes of saudi arabia will want to keep a lid on that production. I want to show you where we are, near the end of november, global stocks main on track for the best month on record, up 12 13 . This goes back to when we have been tracking the data, 1990. In asia, the Chinese Industrial production surged at the past us to face at the fastest pace in nine months. Chinese exceptionalism still continuing. They were the first in and the first out of this pandemic. Risks remain, bumpy road for a potentially bumpy road for vaccines. Astrazeneca ceo says its vaccine likely headed for an additional global trial as the drugmaker tries to clear up uncertainty in its current study. Fazoli. T more from sam what do you make of this initial thought, they are going to have to undertake another global trial. What does that mean in terms of their rollout of the vaccine . Good morning. It all depends on what happens with regard to the regulators in europe and the u. K. From a global perspective, this dontling us they expect the u. S. Will approve the vaccine used in the data they have currently. We have only seen a glimpse of the data they have currently, which is what caused the who half reaction at the beginning of the week. Im not surprised they talked about another trial. There are a lot of patients and ases to be counted. The regulators in the u. S. And europe and the u. K. Will look at that and decide whether they want to approve it for the region here, for europe. If they do, what groups of patients would be approved for . And from a u. S. Perspective, this is going to be a vaccine that will probably not see the light of day in the u. S. Until sometime in q1. Annmarie where can we see this get approval for the began end of the year . Where in the world could we see approval . Before the end of the year, it is going to be entirely dependent how this data shapes up with regards to the regulatory process. Got they have shown us has some questions still in it with regard to the analysis and what is the actual efficacy of the vaccine. What group does it work best in terms of age group, demographic, core mobilitys. That is what i think they need to figure out. I think the regulators will have access to plenty more data we have not seen. It is possible they will get an approval in the u. K. Or the European Union before than of the year, but it depends on how beforeshapes up the end of the year, but depends on how the data shapes up. The others,en moderna and pfizer, what will consumers make of this . Will to be anxiousness to take these inoculations . Nothing has gone wrong here. The vaccine has worked. We have been spoiled for want of a better phrase with the data from pfizer and the Moderna Vaccine trials. Nobody expected those sort of efficacy spirit here we are in a world that looks more normal with the astrazeneca data. What we have to figure out is what is the actual efficacy of the vaccine . They had no severe cases and vaccinated people. We know it works at least 60 efficacy. What we did want to figure out is can you be at 80 or 90 in the younger population . Why cant we use this for the Younger Group and save the higher efficacy vaccines for the older group . Annmarie there has been confusion and terms of the astrazeneca one. My question is, do you think this is a corporate crisis or are they handling it fine . Not a corporate crisis at all. This trial and the brazil trial were run by the oxford vaccine group. It was not run by astrazeneca. I would really try to distance astrazeneca from this. They are involved in the development of the vaccine globally and managing supply chains, and they will be running the u. S. Trial, i dont think we can blame astrazeneca for this career there is no blame here. There is data that came out that was confusing. And that happens. What we are asking for is give it some time. Lets get some clarity on it. Thearie do you think university of oxford needs to be doing more or are they handling it as they should . They put the press release out, they wanted to put the data out they had. Im not sure i would have been openly talking about a group of patients in the trial that has received had received the wrong dose until i understood better what was going on in that group. Astrazeneca frankly, they had to do this. If Oxford University was going to put it out, and they also had access to data the Data Monitoring Committee had given them, they have an obligation to put the data out. They put their best foot forward and it did that. I do not think astrazeneca is to blame. Up being a has ended little more complicated. Annmarie there is a lot of because theastra refrigeration and how quickly this could get out to some countries, low and middle Income Countries relying on it. With this speedbump, what is the timeframe for those countries . If we assume this ends up effective, in a Large Population of Different Countries see below 55 years old, and i do not know the answer but i would need to see the data, it is a very viable product. 80 is a pretty good vaccine. The fda has required 50 , so that was the expectation. I would be very happy to have that kind of efficacy being used. Lets just see the data and understand where is the groups that it works best in. On. And then we can get on with it. Im sure regulators and the u. K. And europe will do that. Anxiouslywe are all awaiting the latest data. Thank you for your time this morning. I am sure he will be on throughout european programming today to discuss this exclusive interview with the astrazeneca ceo. A recap of the other news you need to know, here is laura wright. Laura President Trump says he will really wish power if the Electoral College confirms joe bidens victory but he is signaling he may never formally signal defeat. The president is expecting calling for the Election Results to be overturned. And u. K. Are set to resume brexit trade talks. This is after key officials were forced into quarantine. The eus chief negotiator will update ministers in the state of negotiations. He will likely warn little progress has been made. Are stilld poland planning to veto the eu stimulus package. Showdemanded changes and little sign they will revise objections. Official is open to allowing some banks to resume paying dividends. Prefers they hold off on payouts but understands the approach comes with costs. In its latest target spat with australia is wine. They are set to impose barring imports from coal and copper to barley. China is the biggest buyer of worth 900buying, million over the last year. Take, this is Bloomberg Amazon will send 500 million to employees this holiday season. We are going to go to brussels next for that report. I am Annmarie Hordern and you are watching bloomberg europe. Annmarie good morning. This is daybreak era. Europe. Amazon once again finds itself in the firing line. Agreed to postpone the day until shops reopen in december. It is not only france, the union has called for strikes in several warehouses. Quite a blow. Workers,ort to appease amazon is spending 500 million in employee bonuses. Frontline workers will receive up to 300 if they work for the month of december. Why so much the backlash here in europe . Good morning. I would say there are a number of reasons but the central theme is the pandemic. When you look at covid19, it has accelerated the transition from doing shopping at the store online person to shopping. Amazon has been one of the winners, the biggest winner in europe with that reflected in the market cap. Also in the personal wealth of the founder, jeff bezos. That has struck a nerve with some of the Smaller Companies that believe competition is simply not fair. Are amazon or team upor with amazon, you are not competing in the same ground. It will continue until tomorrow. That was reflected in a chat i had with one of the representatives of the union who said we are not seeing better pay. Amazon is simply not willing to sit at the table. Lets take a look. Every time all the orders will be fulfilled normally at the same time. Information about the postponement of a difficult situation. People a situation where get their orders from warehouses in the check republic. Our strikeus activity has affected the working of the situation in amazon. That was a representative of the union and germany, carrying out a strike coinciding with the black friday, aiming to do big disruptions in those deliveries. In germany, amazon is at the table, negotiating to increase pay in germany. It is not just about the financial conditions. There seems to be something i would argue is almost cultural. The idea the big american tech giant is changing the way we do shopping and europe. You could argue to some extent, perhaps it is a cliche the european who likes to do shopping instore on a saturday, but it has resonated with politicians. Saying wethe mayor want to do it without amazon this christmas. The mayor barcelona taking a similar tone, saying ditch amazon. Annmarie clearly some competition. I want to know, this pressure mounting on amazon, will it change pressure work practices in europe . It could. So far, and to be fair to amazon, they say they comply with all the european regulation. The french side of the company has been in damage control for two weeks. The french director general giving the pushback, saint there are a lot of misconceptions about the amount of money the company makes. Misconceptions about some of the taxes it may pay in europe. They do repeat they comply with all the regulation in europe. Also, there has been no changes in the way it operates in europe for a few years. We have seen revenue jumps. They are making more money than they were before. It feeds into a narrative that Tech Companies in europe benefit from a huge market, but they do not pay for play by the european playbook paris that is something that comes repeatedly out of brussels. European institutions have to tweak how they operate in europe if they want to meet the regulation and the institutions. Annmarie you brought up the fact this is a huge u. S. Tech giant. How does this fit into the wider debate we hear about taxing u. S. Not just amazon, and europe . In europe . It is not just about amazon, it is about all of the tech. It is the push from europeans to get a global tax for global tech. Global companies would be americans, europeans to be fair have not been able to compete or match anything that looks like an amazon or facebook. Seen a lot of progress. The french have been pushing to get a tax level reform. They are hoping perhaps with a new administration there could be some momentum. What is clear is when it comes competition, the european commissioner, they do feel they dominate too much. Perhaps that means there is abuse of the competition. When you rule a market, you do not let new players enter. That is an area where the European Union wants to focus paris not just a tax, but the competition rules wants to focus. Not just a tax, but the competition rules. Csiarie in china, the gaining a little more than 1 . We have extended into the upside. This comes as Industrial Enterprises surge. Those profits on a tear. They are jumping the most in nine years and october. Coming up on the program, more price pressures. Is the the key to cheaper evs . We break down the global lithiumion game next. This is bloomberg. Needs to get cheaper before electric vehicles can become cheaper. Prices have come down 90 over the last decade. We are a ways from hitting a magic number for batteries. 100 per kilowatt hour. That is the point when evs should achieve price parity with cars gas guzzling cars. Lithiumion batteries are used by evs, they are just bigger. The batteries are expensive because of what goes in them, a small selection of energy dense metals. We are not just talking about lithium, but cobalt, nickel, and manganese. Those can account for 45 of the cost for the battery cell. Produced by the likes of panasonic, lg, and a chinese company. They are installed to safely and efficiently manage the discharge of electricity. Lithium ions shuffle back and forth between the iota and cathode. Cobalt has been preferred because it stops cells overheating or catching fire. But is it expensive. Batteries make cheaper is to switch from cobalt to nickel. Not only is it cheaper but it holds more energy. But they require manufacturers to spend money on safety adjustments. Halvet of the pledge to battery costs, elon musk introduced new chemistries. Tesla also has plans to use silken in battery cells. They are concerned there are concerns around nickel being in short supply. Contracts for the metal rose 30 between january and october. This could spur investment for new sources of supply. How long do we have to wait before battery costs come down to a level where evs will have price parity for combustion cars . The forecast is we are only a few years away. And they will fall below that number by 2024. Analysts are expecting newer signs and better manufacturing practices, too. Annmarie breaking down the evs that ares to cheaper in bloomberg green. But going steady after posing some of the biggest declines since the onset of the pandemic. The selloff stoking fresh questions about the boom in cryptocurrencies. Why are cryptocurrencies ess crypto enthusiasts so confident we are not seeing a repeat of what we saw in 2017 . Reminiscent ofe the first bubble back in 2017. The industry has changed over the past three years. The biggest single reason the enthusiasts. 2 is we have seen a much greater institutional interest and investment in the industry. That is something that did not materialize in 2017 and has changed the landscape a little bit. Forcese what other might be affecting the price . For all the industry has grown over the last three years, it is still fairly small, immature, and not liquid. One researcher according to 95 ofearcher, some ofcoin is controlled by 2 accounts. Stillcalled whales affects huge influence. Thatale makes trades, has a huge influence in markets. Bitcoin has a ways to go when it comes to being a large asset class. Intorie definitely tune this debate. This is the question of the day, about bitcoin. And does it for me bloomberg daybreak europe. Anna edwards is next. About an hour away from the start of european equities trading. Lets take a quick look at where we trade. Futures markets, subdued sentiment. S p 500 futures lifting just a tad. This is bloomberg. Anna good morning. Welcome to Bloomberg Markets the european open. Astrazenecas ceo tells bloomberg it will undertake a new global vaccine trial is Boris Johnson warns the u. K. Of long months ahead as he attempts to impose restrictions. Global stocks