Agents about talking to the russian ambassador. The Trump Administration is considering a move that could boost travel. Several agencies are urging the injuryouse to lift an ban on nonu. S. Citizens that was put in place to slow the spread of coronavirus. The band has caused big losses for airlines and the transatlantic markets. In germany, a partial lockdown has been extended for three weeks to just before christmas. Chancellor merkel is trying to gain control of the latest coronavirus resurgent. There are tighter limits on private gatherings, but german schools in most businesses will remain open. Franceng the u. K. Is accusing the u. K. Of dragging its feet over brexit. The French Foreign minister says the outcome on a new trade deal is highly uncertain. Negotiations are to resume in london. The u. K. Is set to leave the European Union at the end of the year. Whether there is a trade agreement or not. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im 120 countries, leighann gerrans. This is bloomberg. Francine . Francine thank you so much. Of course, everyone who is watching near and far, especially our american friends, happy thanksgiving. We know it is an important holiday for you come at this year it is different for you. Little equities are heading for a fresh record high. The dollar study, bitcoin with as 8. 7 . If you look at treasury futures, they are edging higher. The cash market is closed with traders off in the u. S. For thanksgiving. There was a daily show data yesterday, the first backtoback rise in weekly jobless claims since july. A widening trade deficit, and you can see the rally taking a breath in europe this morning, pretty much flat, then gold at 814. Joining us to talk about the markets and his thanksgiving bank ofs geoff yu, the new york mellon senior strategist. Im not going to ask you about thanksgiving. Is there too much optimism about a return a longerterm recovery and not enough focus on what we will live through in the next couple of months . Ff you reminded me of my days in minnesota with a lot of turkey there. Taking stock of what is going to happen between now and when the vaccine comes on a widely available basis, where the u. S. Data that you mention from yesterday, and with the announcement of a greater stimulus. For a country that has not been closed mouth about the pandemic, these are worried times. That end of the tunnel. Is there anything mispriced in the markets . Are we going to see a lot more volatility . I wouldnt say volatility per se. When we say mispricing, the one at isthat we are looking whether there is a chance of having some inflationary impulse come through, but without the growth. So it is starting to sound like a stagflation scenario. These drivers for inflation are not necessarily going to be generating bigger investment pickup, there is a supply Chain Disruption, the entire inflation markets have been chained as changed as well. Be a trendtion will that will continue for many years to come. So that is something that Central Banks may need to be concerned about. Where you get price gains up ahead but without the corresponding income gains, and that is not a very good mix. It is something we are watching up ahead. And i dont think the yield curves are pricing for that yet. Francine what happens to inflation in that kind of scenario . Inflation could start a surprise on the upside. For places like europe, for example, and japan, the starting point is quite low. Market expectations are low anyway. It doesnt take much. , that u. S. And the u. K. May not surprise market function. But again, it is not about inflation per se, it is can we have inflation and Income Growth at the same time. Only one where we have stronger inflation, headline prices, and jobs are still problematic, the Income Growth is not following through, then i think the markets will not like that. Stagflation never good for risk appetite. Seecine if we do inflation, where do we see it first . Start to see it in terms of price push. We have seen supply Chain Disruption that is very good. The example will be what happens when really we need a global vaccine distribution. The supply chains that have been affected greatly in the last few months or so, we actually may find the cost of distributing this may rise, and that can that be traveling can that be channeled through . Not because the price of the underlying increase, but the for transportation costs are going to go up. So for services, at home right now, as we pay for software, are they going to have to go up because of the investment involved . On the other hand, there are areas where you dont have to pay as much. When wasa in the u. K. , the last time you actually bought a train ticket . I have not bought that many over the last six months. So things do balance them out, but i would be looking at areas where we could see significant supply Chain Disruption. Followed on by general services. This is transport worldwide, or is it also something to do with the u. S. . Geoff it is interesting you mentioned the stimulus in the u. S. Is, no, because for the u. S. , because it is more of a closed economy, trade is lower, so the stimulus dollars the question is, in what form is the stimulus going to come through . Will there be money directly into the pockets of households, which is expected to be a good thing, or is it a mix of corporate or otherwise . Corporates are going to want to invest that in a way that helps the salaries of underlying workers. If it doesnt and all it does is raise costs through a demand push, that might not be conducive to the economy either. Bidens see what the Administration Comes up with when these discussions come in play. If we talk about what happens in 2009, when that stimulus came through, and a lot of it was helping with wages, which checks to households. Something needs to match that if we are going to make the stimulus work. Francine when you look at some of the concerns that we have had in china, especially because of default and some of the things out there, what do you do with renminbi . Are we too optimistic . I feel like the grim reaper. I say are we too optimistic about this . Is there a danger that we are underestimating some of the faultlines in china . From a corporate defaulting point of view, one important thing to note is that this is generally considered healthy by chinas regulators. The notion that risk has been time, withor a long specific guarantees. Every time there is supposed to be a default, a white knight comes in or there is an principle ishere protected. So the regulators, i hope there can be an introduction of risk to investors. As long as it can be done on a managed basis. I would see this as a positive and the chinese market. Because most of the investors are onshore, no direct link up to the renminbi, having said that, will they start to reach valuations that makes it somewhat uncomfortable for people back in china . Absolutely. We are watching that leg which closely. Indonesia, that language closely. Strongert with a currency or something with that, so while i do like the renminbi, stronger from these levels, i would be very cautious and just know what Inflation Numbers are saying and also to be very the language. I dont think they want to repeat 2015. To get out of it was actually very volatile, not just for china but for the markets in general. Francine geoff yu stays there with us. We will have more on the american economy, the chinese economy, and some of the concerns in europe with that little thing called brexit coming up. President ialabout pardons and transitions. This is bloomberg. Mr. Biden starting on day one of my presidency, we will take steps that will change the course of this disease, more testing, getting people away from one another, more protective gear for businesses in our schools to do the same, reducing the number of cases. Clear guidance will get more businesses and more schools open. We all have a role to play in beating this crisis. Pres. Trump every american can be united in thanksgiving to god for the incredible gifts he has bestowed upon us, the blessings, Family Community come and this exceptional, beautiful, and great country, greater than ever before. Joe biden, giving contrasting messages on the eve of thanksgiving. We will get back to geoffrey yu of bny mellon. E are in a transition period politics in the u. S. Is a bit more stable than maybe what the market was expecting, although frankly at times you wonder exactly where they are going. What does it mean for the market . We have janet yellen as checkers secretary as treasury secretary. Does the amount matter less for the stimulus than where she is going to put it . Geoff firstly, i think markets are waiting for the georgia runoff, to see where the senate is going to align for making a final determination. The on that, i think the general view is there will be strong limitations on what janet yellen in joe biden can do up ahead the senate. There are areas of consensus where they can be reached. I think where the biggest there could be support for individual states, even in discussion with a current under treasury secretary has been a dividing line. Between republicans and democrats. Can they meet halfway . We shall see. Hopefully there can be agreement that something needs to happen very quickly. We dont want to wait until we go from a week to two weeks of high claims to 10 weeks worth of claims. Because then it will be a bit too late. You always want to frontload and be proactive on stimulus being up ahead rather than reacting to what is happening. Because of businesses are planning ahead, they cannot wait. They are not in their speed for me right now is more important. Enough of at make difference, that is going to be problematic, too. Francine we are also getting breaking news, a headline from vladimir putin, the russian president , saying he will congratulate the president when the vote is final. Im not exactly sure what he is expecting or when, but it is certainly very telling about the relationship that russia could have with president elect joe biden. When you look at the market and the hopes that a button presidency can bring, multilateralism and globalization, are we underestimating what he needs to do at home . Are taxes going to go up . How much reform will he be able to do . Geoff you mentioned taxes going up it is interesting you mentioned taxes going up because we were waiting to hear from chancellor sunaks yesterday. Will there be a reckoning on the fiscal situation in the u. S. And globally anyway . I think that is going to be a conversation between next year as part of the fiscal process. You mentioned globalization. Markets really need a reality check of how biden will be committed to globalization, especially in an economic context. He has been clear on nato. With Climate Change, the paris agreement, he has been clear on that as well. Lets take trade. The appellate body doesnt have enough judges. Actually under the obama administration, so biden was part of that Administration Come which essentially started a whole back trade of multilateralism. It went nowhere, so i think when it comes to trade, i go back to my earlier point about deglobalization. That is going to be a trend. I dont see anything changing when it comes to a change in approach. China is areas already saying we are not counting on trade to pick up. So i think the rest of the world, they have to say that with an e. U. U. S. Trade deal, i dont think that is going to be high on the agenda either. Francine what does it mean for brexit . We have managed to get through 20 minutes of the show and i didnt even ask you about brexit . Geoff that is a new record, isnt it . What is interesting with the change in language that i detected from the european side, for example, can there be a brexit deal done in stages . There was actually talk about the provisional agreement when it comes to brexit. Actually managing a soft landing, if i may use that phrase . Are they trying to manage a soft landing or a hard brexit as well . Brexit may not look or veryas different from a skinny deal which actually allows sectoral agreements to be put in place over a certain period of time . I think there are many ways to go about this. I still think to be clear there will be a deal. Still conversations are going to be difficult, but as always, the e. U. And the u. K. Francine what does it mean for u. K. Assets . Geoff for u. K. Assets, i think investors have really started to move away from brexit and from the underlying situation in the u. K. Sterling weaker up ahead. Even if we get a brexit deal out, that is an opportunity to move away from sterling positions because growth is not going to catch up. The key thing here is, it has not been as consistent as what we have seen in france and germany. In france there has been consistent support throughout, whereas in the u. K. You have hit off and back on again, still timelimited. On the fiscal side, even after yesterday, there will be some scarring, some damage. More crucially, the bank of england is overestimating how strong the u. K. Economy will become how resilient the economy will be. Result, through qe, i dont think there will be negative rates in the near future. Qe and a weaker sterling, both of that will be part of the meeting. Next year if we are right on european reflation, and in the u. S. As well, i think that is when the u. K. Will start to underperform. Thank you so much, bank of new york mellon. Coming up, well talk more about centralbank expectations and we will also talk about dollar dynamics. That is at 6 00 a. M. In new york, 11 00 a. M. In london, and this is bloomberg. Leighann this is bloomberg surveillance. Here is the Bloomberg Business flash. Learned that companies have been holding talks and could announce a deal as soon as next week. Up new sent shares of 34 . It would be the biggest deal ever for salesforce. Cryptocurrency boom turned into a mini fast. Crypto coin and other Digital Currencies have longed by doubledigit percentages, likely to soak speculation about the durability of the rally, even with the retreat that bitcoin has doubled this year. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Francine . Francine thank you so much, leann. We are looking at live pictures of buenos aires, where yesterday maradonas body will lie in state after he died yesterday at the age of 60. We will have of course plenty more on that. This is bloomberg. Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Lets talk about brexit. France accusing the u. K. Of dragging its feet. The French Foreign minister calling on the u. K. To abandon tactical posturing. Ed, thank editor, you. How much of this is barbed wires being traded . Ist do we know about what going on underneath . Ed there is a great deal of posturing. He was talking for a domestic audience when he made the remarks. In terms of talks, we are in a limbo at the moment. Last week, one of the eu negotiators tested positive for covid. Things, delayed suspending face to face negotiations for the time being. We expect those to resume shortly. From has been a threat michel barnier. We will see whether they come to london, over the next few days, if they get a deal. If they do, one would expect next week. One deadline that does not move is december 31, when britain leaves the eu Single Market at the end of the transition period. The deadline that is squishy is that of the original agreement. The deal in october, mid november, late november, the first week of december; still any deal done would have to be ratified by the u. K. Parliament and the european parliament, a process that takes time. It can be compressed. You can see the parliament moving to a boat on this vote on this as late as december 28. The other risk is a problem and ratifying it. In ratifying. Are British Companies prepared for no deal . Long dragged on so we talked Financial Services what do you do with manufacturing . Are we ready for . Surveys,u look at the it is clear businesses are not ready. Here grappling with covid prep fors run up in last time we were at a brexit down those have been run over the course of a year. Over the big concerns border processes and whether companies will have the paperwork ready. It whether there is a deal or not. Delays. There wit will be been given aot equivalent decision. That has been putting assets out of london, into the eu already. That industry is better prepared than manufacturing or companies actually shipping goods around the eu. Prepared they are less because the government has prepared them less . The government is still hoping for a deal . Are we just looking at Smoke Signals . Ed businesses do not know what they are preparing for. No deal brexit . Deal brexit . Trade deal . Paperwork,f processes . That is part of the problem. Businessesart is with people on furlough and lockdown; they have not had people physically in the office to see this through. You have problems. You have a problem with the government telling business to prepare. , there the beginning backs inenormous tail dover and at the euro tunnel terminal and you could see government in the last few weeks clearly telling businesses to prepare. It is their responsibility to prepare. Businesses are unhappy with this. They essentially have been told it is on you to prepare for a situation in which you have no control and the government can still not tell you what the outcome will be. We spoke to you last week. Couple days after Dominic Cummings left downing street. Now we have joe biden in the white house come january 21. What does that mean . Implications for the Northern Ireland protocol. One of the big political brexit,s, first phase withdraw agreement, how do you avoid a hard border in ireland . Agreed to put the border in the irish sea. It has been clear with the internal markets bill, britain wants to rewrite the agreement in part. This could impinge on the good friday agreement. Deal withants a trade the u. S. After brexit. That had been moving forward under donald trump. Links a trade deal to britain respecting the good friday agreement, there is a question with the internal market bill how far do they push it . If he gets a deal, that could fall away. If he doesnt, how far does he push and jeopardize the u. S. Trade deal . Francine thank you so much, ed evans. The Trump Administration plans to keep up pressure on iran during its final days in power. The u. S. Section five companies in russia and china for alleged dealings with iran. More sanctions on iran are expected in the coming weeks related to weapons of mass destruction and human rights. China will not meet the target for buying American Goods under the phase one trade deal. Chinese imports of u. S. Products load last month after hitting a high in september. As of the end of october, they had 24 of the target. A divided u. S. Supreme court has blocked andrew cuomo from reimposing limits on worship services. He wants to hold down crowds at synagogues and catholic churches in new york city. Justices voted 54 against the limits. John roberts joined the liberal wing in the dissent. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake from bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Francine you are looking at the principal room. Coming up on Bloomberg Markets 11 00 a. M. And , 4 00 p. M. In london. ,bloomberg surveillance Francine Lacqua in london. Expires. Us aid Peter Navarro talked to bloomberg. We have profound structural adjustments primarily heading the major metropolitan areas. Buildings, office the transportation sector, all these things will change in ways which will probably not snap back to what they used to be. My own view, consistent with the president s philosophy is that in order to offset the lost Service Sector jobs, we have to make it up in manufacturing jobs, which means bringing more manufacturing here. Bad news, part of the data, our trade deficit went up. It is going up because we are buying more than we are selling. Part of that is because we are recovering faster than much of the rest of the world. Over time, we have to create jobs here and our best shot is by creating manufacturing jobs in the trump image, particularly for bluecollar americans. Wednesdays data indicates the rebound is more tenuous amid fresh lockdowns, more coronavirus and the deadlock in congress over new stimulus. Markets anticipate stimulus. I dont want to go to the talking points on why there has not been a deal but for both of us, how do you break through this . You are staring down a december 11 deadline to keep government open. You have coronavirus cases, the data, respectfully, disagrees with you. It is impacting the cities and the heartland. How do you provide assistance, not in terms of longterm restructuring but right here and now . Peter these are the questions. Think conversation you and i and taylor are having is the way to break the impasse. We are having i think an intelligent conversation of what i describe as the Second Derivative problem. The first derivative, it looks like things are still Getting Better. The second is they are Getting Better at a slower rate, which means eventually that flips. Chasm,see ahead is the all these programs expire, we struggle with structural justice. I take your point the heartland is hurting as well. I would say it is the major metropolitan areas that disproportionately are suffering pain in these Service Sectors. Point is lets have this conversation. When i am sending out the message to you in the American People today, we can see what is coming. If we can see what is coming and it is bad, we need to be able to avoid it. The way to avoid it is to hit those three points of the compass and a face forward deal. Gdp Small Business loans, stimulus check, more relief for unemployed workers. If we do not do that, there will be a lot of pain in america look. These lockdowns are regressive. Hurt people they the least able to afford it the income, Service Sector workers who have been kicked to the curb by the virus from china. The election is over. Looks a country, have to at the chessboard and figure this out. Francine Peter Navarro speaking to kevin and taylor. House head ofm the american program, thank you for joining. I know it is a big day for americans on thanksgiving. What is more incredible in your spat between the fed and the treasury secretary that could actually mean that the new secretary would have a hard time in accessing funds, or is it Something Else . Leslie it is exactly this. A formal transition is taking place to president elect biden. A broaderoser to economic package and stimulus to help the recovery is getting worse. The virus is getting much worse. The stories are shocking. Not only the number of americans who have tragically died but the numbers of those infected. States have had to send patients to other states. The virus has hit the midwest and many states. The mixed messaging has been a problem throughout. Now we have president elect biden really trying to take control and deliver a clear message, not traveling on thanksgiving, masks, but facing a difficult situation. Fiscal stimulus looks further down the road. From the secretary not looking promising for the broader economic recovery. China and the bilateral trade deficit; seems like the focus is not in the right place. If you look at the Trump Administration or the people around the president at the moment, how much more difficult will they make the transition . Will they make it for the Biden Administration . Leslie this is the concern, clearly on the economic front, there are critical deadlines and we are seeing those. On any number of dimensions, we have watched what happened at the pentagon. There is concern of military security. We might see a more rapid drawdown of troops from afghanistan, which could lead to unintended consequences that put the next administration in a difficult place. It is a competent set of individuals coming into position with deep experience, knowledge, relationships internationally and across washington. They are prepared as they can be. The Incoming Administration is every day waiting for the other shoe to drop, not quite sure what they will be faced with. Beyond americas borders. Clearly, the number one priority is what is going to happen at home on the health and economic front. When you look at some of the questions, what do you think joe biden needs to do . 70 Million People voted for donald trump. Concernthis is a clear for all americans. We have seen millions of americans who voted for president trump. First of all, we have to be clear not to make assumptions about why people voted the way they did. Not everyone did so for the same reasons. Clearly, they made a significant choice in casting that. The Incoming Administration is clear. If you take an area, like for example, trade in the global economy, what the incoming secretary of state has said clearly is America Needs to be including a much broader range of stakeholders every step of the way, that the outcomes will not be announced, the bridge building will not start once negotiations are concluded. They will really start at the beginning. This administration is aware domestic policy, Foreign Policy has to be developed in order to shore up domestic policy. Investments need to be made at home in infrastructure, education, health. Those are targeted at people who will have voted for donald trump and they are seen as absolutely vital for america to be competitive with china, in particular. Working with europe will be key. All of that will be with a clear i to the distributional challenges defining american politics. How important is it joe biden tries to make a difference within the first three months . Will that set the pace . What will he have to focus on . Coronavirus and Climate Change . Critical, thetely first 100 days for any administration, the honeymoon period where the goodwill of the electorate, congress, as much as can be the case, tends to be on the side of the administration. This is a slightly different transition. It has been delayed. It is taking place in the context of the pandemic economic crisis. That puts more pressure on the administration to immediately review americas position in the world. We are already seeing that with the phone calls the president elect has made to europe, asia, jordan, beyond. Day one, we expect america will go back to paris. There will be reinvestment in the who and any number of multilateral agreements. You have to shore up the base. Antony blinken will reach out to beyond and u. K. And showing america is back. Not with naivete that america is unchanged and the global context is unchanged. It has clearly changed dramatically. I dont think anyone envisions america being able, willing or interested in pretending like it has not. For some people things will be a throwback. Jake sullivan, Incoming National security advisor, calling out potential for Grave Human Rights Violations in ethiopia. Tony blinken talking about egypt. Democracy and values; we will see a signaling that multilateral and International Matters matter because it matters at home and across the world. This is the message the administration will try and put forward in the first 100 days while trying to tackle the challenges. Francine thank you so much. More on u. S. Politics and banking. We will bring you an interview. This is bloomberg. Thousands of mourners for Diego Maradona lying in state in buenos aires. A very moving picture. He meant so much to so many people. Three days of National Mourning have begun after he died yesterday at the age of 60. His body lying in state. The number of people that remember him, have stories about him. He influenced Monetary Policy at the bank of england. This is bloomberg. Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Francine tightening curves. Chancellor Angela Merkel extends germanys partial lockdown for at least three weeks as the country struggles to contain the to regain control from the pandemic. Brexit breakdown. France accuses the u. K. Of dragging its feet on a trade deal with the e. U. And, drop the debt. An Italian Government official tells bloomberg the ecb should consider canceling bonds bought during the crisis. Well, good morning, everyone. This is bloomberg surveillance. London. Cine lacqua in tom keene is off today because of thanksgiving in america. I have heard that he is cooking the feast. Lets get to the bloomberg first reduced with leighann gerrans. Leighann hi, francine. It is the apparent close to a long and bitterly fought criminal case involving president trumps first National Security advisor. The president pardon michael flynn, who pleaded guilty to lying to fbi agent about