The gloom crew. They have been wrong, wrong, wrong. We will reassess. We start strong with james bevan in a moment. Francine we have a lot of Economic Data that could support the rally or not a little bit later. Consumptionat price and other things we need to watch out for. Lets get to first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. Joe biden ritika joe biden wants to change the slogan from America First to americas back. Restore u. S. Ties with International Organizations that President Trump spurned over the last four years. President trump heads to pennsylvania in his campaign to overturn Election Results there. He will meet with state republican lawmakers examining accusations of voting impropriety. Pennsylvania has already certified that joe biden won the election. Trump supporters complained that observers were not allowed to be close to virga two workers counting votes. U. S. Health officials are working on guidance to shorten the 14 day quarantine period if they are exposed to the coronavirus. Officials are starting to see more evidence that suggest people could spend less time in quarantine as long as they test negative for the virus. Shortening quarantine times could mean more people can fly. In hong kong, carrie lam has vowed to keep strengthening times ties with china. She defended beijings technique grip over the city and introduce new steps to strengthen links with the mainland. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im ritikauntries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much. A momentous day yesterday, no question about that. You see it with the dow come with other indices, particularly the banks coming on so strongly. Lets go right now to a gentleman with a data check. Francine is that you, tom . Or a woman with a data check . Trump the dow jones hit 30,000, which is the highest in history. That is despite everything that has taken place. Im thrilled with what has happened on the vaccine front. That has been absolutely incredible. Nothing like that has ever happened medically, and i think people are acknowledging that. It is having a big effect. Just brokenrket has 30,000, never been broken, that number. That is a sacred number. Nobody ever thought they would see it. That is the ninth time since the beginning of 2020, and it is the 48th time that we have broken the trumpring administration. I just want to congratulate all the people within the administration that worked so hard. Most important like, i want to congratulate the people of our country because there are no people like you. Thank you very much, everybody. Tom a short visit by the president yesterday, and throughout his administration he has linked himself to the equity market. Lets link ourselves to the data check. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. Really interesting out there. Green and red on the screen, and nasdaq 100 elevates the rest, fractionally negative. Worth watching the vix today. It has been an event mix. A huge amount of Economic Data coming out today. On dxy. Eaker, 92. 12 we had a 91 handle earlier. I want to point out brent crude when are we going to get a 50, 50 print on global oil . Francine global stocks are pausing some of their rally. You are right, we have a lot of Economic Data, jobless claims, personal income, do before move themarket close before market close and traders head off for thanksgiving. Tomorrow they are down in touch. Cyclicals such as mining and energy firms are falling, offsetting defense including commodity shares. Utility shares. Bitcoin has been significant. 19,226. We will talk a little bit about what that means for the rest of the asset classes. Talk about dow, james bevan, ccla Investment Management chief investment officer. Tom is right. Everyone who didnt believe the stock market is wrong for the moment, but in the short term, there are so many questions left unanswered bad loans, unemployed, exactly what will happen to the economy. Can the rally be sustained . James i think there will be a pause, but certainly equities want a forecast to prod me with in due course, i would say the s p 500 gets 3800 points by the middle of next year, and 4000 or 4100 points by the end of next year. That is based on what i am projecting for corporate earnings per the outlook is increasing, and the expectation means there will be a modest compression of the price that investors have had to pay to participate in future profit growth. Therpinning all of this is rotation that bond yields will stay low, that mr. Biden will spend some more money. What if thecine what if we see worst of inflation in 2021 . James there are two thoughts to stimulus we should think about, and the first is if we get fiscal stimulus. Have not spent all the money in the cares act by team trump on march 27. Not all of that is gone. A lot of that money has ended up on household Balance Sheets were Savings Rates has risen. They have only actually require the consumer to open their viaets, spend more in 2021 positive tailwind, corporate earnings shares. There is the issue of what happens with the Federal Reserve. I suggest the Federal Reserve is becauseo remain easy inflation does remain low. But i absolutely accept that it will increase in due course. But for now the fed is exhibiting all the signs that it can still carry about bond yields. James, it is most i interesting. There is talk about the natural rate of interest. How do Equity Investors adapt to businesses moving forward, like hotrmicks take out of the sauce industry yesterday, bluechip stocks, the great bull market, within the timeline of low Interest Rates . We are all having a terrible job resetting, arent we . James well, i think an awful lot of people have determined correct valuations, equities, priceearnings, and if you were to look at it now against history, equities are undeniably expensive. However, i would suggest that low inflation and low Interest Rates, we should be looking at the equity risk premium. Im calculating this on the basis of the return that echo rees will deliver by tossing up the future earnings and thenunting the price, and the equity risk premium is the discount rates less the riskfree rate. Premium in the state is over seven percentage points. I think based on current lead indicators and credit spreads, a fair equity risk premium is just over five risk premium points, maiming meaning there is the potential risk of premium to bonds. Tom i have a joke in my script, james bevan, about getting out the dow 40,000. That long extrapolation is christmas of 2033 2023. Are you extrapolating out this bull market . James im looking at two key variables. What will Companies Make in terms of corporate earnings . Secondly, what price will investors be prepared to show those future profits . On the earnings growth, i would say that the opportunity to positively surprise in 2021 is absolutely there because the year on year comparisons are going to be so easy, and companies are clearly relatively well positioned. I think there will be a squeeze in a number of sectors. We talk about the oil price. When i look at what has happened to the supply side of the energy continuum, i am not at all surprised we saw brent crude someng to 60 next year at point. The second issue is what price should be paid to be in the market . Joining the dots, i think we will end up around 20 times next years earnings, and that is where i get to 4000 or 4100 points, the s p 500 to the end of next year. When do corporations start paying more tax to pay for debt . James it is very interesting, isnt it . Team biden talks about the need for higher taxes, and i would be very surprised if he hikes taxes in 2021 just as companies are getting back on their feet. I think that next year is a year of continued relatively easy taxes, continued fiscal expansion. The fed has very low requirements to Fund Government debt because of course government has gotten ahead of itself in terms of its funding schedule. So i do think that mr. Biden can spend more money without raising taxes in 2021, and indeed without capping the bond market substantially. Francine james, thank you so much. We will get back to james bevan. Up next we speak with marcel levi. He will have a couple of things to say about the markets. He is the ucla chief executive. He will focus on covid19 and maybe the difference that six months have made in vaccines and treatments. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Im Francine Lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. We have to get a virus update, and tom and i are delay to speak to the chief executive of hospital that has to live this every day. Restrictions over christmas that is part of Prime MinisterBoris Johnsons bit to balance economic and safety concerns. The u. K. Fourweek lockdown is set to be replaced on december 2 with a regional threetier system of restrictions. Joining us now for some a person on the ground who deals with it day in and day out, is. Arcel levi thank you for joining us on bloomberg. So we understand a little bit better about the situation that you live every day, what can you tell us about hospitals in london at the moment . Have they reached capacity . Are you better at treating covid19 . Is it less deadly than it was in april and march . Marcel those are very relevant questions. It is fair to say that hospitals are very full but not only with covid19 patients, they are full because we are running a complete elective program, seeing lots of patience, doing our Surgical Program for speed because we have long waiting lists and we want to get on top of those. So that is creating a lot of pressure in hospitals because we numbers ecreasing increasing numbers of covid19 patients, both in the ward and in icus. But i have to say at the moment in london it is manageable. The numbers increase every day, so we do have admissions every day, but we also discharge a lot of patients back home, covid19, from the icu or from the general wards. That is different from the first week. We have to be better in managing covid19 so the length stays shorter the length of stay is shorter. We can still provide sufficient capacity for everything in london. Francine is that because of better treatments, better drugs that have been approved, or is it because staff has better equipment to deal with . Marcel i think it is a combination of things. There is no golden bullet for covid19 treatment so far, but it is a combination of a lot of things. We give steroids to patients. We now know how to prevent them from other complications. I think like every medical situation, we have had a learning curve with better diagnostics, understanding what is going on with patients and how we should respond to that. So it is a combination of things that actually has quite an impressive effect. Not only in london. That is what you see worldwide. If you look at the clinical trials, interestingly we have many trials that do not show any immediate any intervention, but if you look i think wheat is fair to say we are getting a little bit better in treating covid19. Tom thank you so much for joining us. Congratulations on being chief scientific officer of the devil inside believe in the next year. I would like to speak to you about your focus on thrombosis. We have been looking at the tissue damage that is seen within this horrific virus. Do you believe there is a permanence, with those who were sick or sort of sick or very sick is there a permanence to their lung capacity and their upper body ability into the future . The case. Seems to be although there is a strange discrepancy that those nations those patients who are most severely ill recover fairly well icur there is in prolonged or hospital stay. These longterm consequences of mostly these longterm consequences we see mostly in younger patients, with relatively mild conditions, but then they have this very debilitating noncovid syndrome that can make them tom within the noncovid syndrome, what is the levi timeline into 2021 . We get all excited about the vaccines and the silver. What is your personal timeline to wear our viewers and listeners will be comfortable in society . Marcel i think we are learning really fast, so of course all of the attention has been devoted in the past few months on vaccines and vaccination. I think we will get there. Noncovid is relatively new, so we are rapidly learning the underlying reason, and it is probably a combination of things. At the same time, we are learning how to treat these patients, so i have seen very nice results. Programs that are very different to what we usually do, specifically for covid with good outcomes. It takes a long time. It is really a very bad situation for those affected, but the prognosis is fairly ok, fortunately. Levi, what can you tell us about what the government is putting in place . Will we be able to see our loved ones for christmas or for five days . Do you worry about a significant case resurgence in the early weeks of january . Marcel that is what people predict, but we have to admit that also these predictions and model making is very often not correct, retrospectively. So we will see. A loosening ofth the restrictions at the end of december, we need to be really careful and try to be as responsible as possible, and i think you can also have a wonderful christmas and a wonderful time with your family if you abide by the rules, keep distance, keep your company as small as possible, do not sit together very closely with each other in a small room without deletion for hours. For without ventilation hours and hours. So even with the restrictions developed during that period of time, there is a lot you can do to protect yourself and your family members. Because what good would it be if you have a fantastic christmas time with your family, and then your next meeting is a hospital visit or even worse, a funeral . Marcel levi, thank you so much. Sobering words from the London Hospital chief executive. We will have more from covid19. Coming up next hour, lauren sauer. That is at 6 30 am in new york, 11 30 a. M. In london. This is bloomberg. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. Dell and hp both reported Quarterly Sales that will beat estimates. The companies are being boosted by customer upgrades of personal computers for work and school during the pandemic. Dell and hp have taken steps to cut operating expenses during the pandemic, producing betterthanexpected profits. Shares of hsbc are surging today. There is growing optimism that europes largest bank may resume paying dividends on tuesday. Coma sachs is advising investors to buy hsbc shares. That is the latest Bloomberg Business flash. Tom thanks so much. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. The dow 30,000, and i want to give you one image, differences year to date. Staggering out almost 12 months from now, was still a big nasdaq, up 34 or so. The dow well into the green. The banks have come along, but the blended banking index, the key index in america, is 16 yeartodate. I have never seen the oddities right now on a year to date calendar in november. Francine . We also have a lot of u. S. Economic data, jobless claims, consumer confidence, personal income. And i want to show you bitcoin, the when i have been focusing on to give us an idea of what comes next. Coming up next, we speak with liam fox, former u. K. Trade secretary. This is bloomberg. Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Mr. Wyden it is a team that will keep our country and our people safe and secure. It reflects the fact that america is back ready to leave the world, not retreat from it. Once again sit at the head of the table. Ready to confront our adversaries and not reject our allies. Ready to stand up for our values. As the president elect said we cannot solve the worlds problems alone. We need to be working with our countries. We need their cooperation, their partnership, and also confidence. Because america at its best still has the greater ability in any country on earth to bring others together to meet the challenges of our time. And that is where the men and women of the state department, Foreign Service officers, that is where they come in. Think,atever you whatever your politics, lets be direct, it is a great adjustment. The differential between pompeo and lincoln is stunning. Right now to bring us fox, theve is liam former United Kingdom trade secretary. Im going to digress here to one key question. It is rare that we have on someone who is experienced in the general practitioner trenches. That would be you. You are the real deal from the Royal College of general practitioners. What is your advice to our listeners to get through this pandemic . Calm, try to minimize contact where you can and wait until we have a Vaccine Program in place. The basic truth is if you dont have a cure and a vaccine, it will continue to spread through any population that does not have immunity. It will continue to spread. The good news is there is going to be a vaccine available in the new year so at least weve got something to look forward to positively in Public Health in 2021 even if not an instant solution. Tom folks, there is your free doctors appointment of the day. Forward toe can move these huge changes we see. How should the United Kingdom adapt and adjust to the Biden Administration . Liam we dont really know what the picture will be. It looks as though biden is picking a Mainstream Team for the u. S. With experience. There is the situation where there is a split congress which will be a change. In terms of where the u. K. Sits, we will be looking for to an administration that is committed to multilateral institutions. We reform those multilateral institutions in having a constructive u. K. U. S. Input that would be helpful to the world bank and beyond. Does bidens election mean Boris Johnson can no longer leave the Single Market without a deal . Liam i think we will get the deal. I have always believed we would get the deal in my belief in that is stronger. Imperative for economic reasons, but i think that in the Global Situation at to moment, there is a need be stimulated and i think a trade agreement would be one way to provide that. I think there is an obligation on both parties that go beyond their own self interest. Is joe biden correct to draw a link between the internal market bill and good friday . Liam i dont think so, not as directly as it has been said. Hopefully there is no need for us to have the European Market bill anyway. It does look from the signals we are getting as the progress is being made, my experience says that when we get to a blackout where no one is saying anything, that is the time an indication for a slip from the irish Prime Minister. The only place where there was difference was state aid and fishing and those are issues that can be bridged. Tom mr. Fox, i want to talk about the core concept and we do this with american exceptionalism that there can be british exceptionalism. What is british exceptionalism in 2021 . Liam i have never really agreed with some peoples concepts. My view is that american exceptionalism exists to the extent that the constitution of the United States and the commitment to enterprise and a free market has given people to do exceptional things. It is really about the system. In the United Kingdom it is the same challenge we face, how do we government off of the back of the people, how do we get a free market Free Enterprise system operating in a way that we can use our natural innovation. I also think that we need more commitment to multilateral institutions. We have had a lot to talk about regional trade agreements and bilateral trade agreements. Looking at multilateral trade agreements, we have not really had what apart from facilitation agreements since 1995. This time we pushed on that and if we cannot get that to move forward, we to look for agreements of the willing who are market economies willing to take forward with trade liberalization because they are in lies the opportunity. We are just hearing from the chancellor of the United Kingdom talking about the ob are forecast making for a sobering reading. He is briefing the cabinet right now. This is the head of the spending review. U. K. Stics show the contract and scale of debt increase according to the chancellor. Let me go back to the deal that you are expecting between the u. K. And the eu. Is there a danger that Boris Johnson give too much into the dus to get to deal at any cost and are there any circumstances in which you and your colleagues will not back a deal . Liam if you are excuse me, there are rather too many ifs in that question. To get a trade agreement, there has to be some compromises. Anrade agreement is not ultimatum, it is a tradeoff. That is what you expect and we will look at it favorably. It is unlikely to see Boris Johnson giving away too much to the European Union. That both i imagine. Ides will negotiate very hard , we are ine can tell the landing zone for an agreement. It is not only to the benefit of both parties, but i think it provides welcome confidence at a time when it is in short supply in the global economy. What are your redlines . Clearly one of the reasons we are leaving the European Union is we dont want to have a European Court determining what happens in the United Kingdom. Where ouro be an area sovereignty is protected. For most other things, we have seen agreement in broad areas that we will not see a tariff free trading zone, we want to see lower costs across the trading network, we dont want to see the introduction of new paperwork, new transactional costs in the economy. I do think there is goodwill and emergency hasid said we do not need to have anymore variables out there. We need to deal with the global emergency and minimize those other issues that are out there. Andink the European Union u. K. Will find a degree of commonality in how they see the Global Trading position, things that they want in terms of globalization of services, they need to get some of those big agreements over the line. And then to look at things like an environmental agreement given way that given that we can start to align policies with trade policy and then you have the big challenge of the effects of covid on the developing world. With diminished demand from the g20 and the impact on commodity prices, tougher employment circumstances, and i think we have to be weary of whether we are 21 or two of those developing countries whether we are 21 or two of those developing countries. Ritika joe biden made it clear he wants Call National relationship layins. Relations. His goal of restoring u. S. Ties with International Organizations that President Trump earned. Encouragediden is after just one day after transition talks on the coronavirus with trump administration. He spoke with nbc news. Mr. Biden we are already working out a meeting with the covid team in the white house and how to not only distribute but get from a vaccine being distributed to getting vaccinated. We are not so far behind the curve as we thought we might be in the past. Ritika biden and his team now have access to funds, Administration Officials and classified information. American students are attending school virtually. 44 of students are going to virtual only school. That is an increase of more than 5 from one week ago. More than 30 states saw School Closings in the past three weeks. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am ritika gupta this is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much. Futures flapped off of the big bang of yesterday, dow closing 40,046. How is it linked to the economy and the european economy particularly. A global chief economist with much more to talk about with dr. Nielsen. Futures at 2 . Dow futures at 43. Stay with us. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg surveillance. Lets talk about the economy with Unicredit Group chief economist. Thank you so much for coming on. I know you look at the economy but sometimes you talk about the markets. If you look at the fundamentals that we are seeing in the economy, some of the scarring that could happen despite a vaccine being available pretty soon, does it make sense for the markets to rally as they have . No, i think the market is optimistic. Price is completely out of whack, the latest rally for me is overly optimistic. Maybe we are going to a place where we need to learn to evenprice is which are further away from earnings. It is a good turning season for sure. What do you worry about in the economy that people are not seeing . Are you optimistic that the pickup once we have a vaccine will be quicker than expected . Erik i worry on the economic whether we understand or predict correctly what the private sector, particularly households will do with the huge savings they have. In america and europe, we have Household Savings normal. Once a vaccine greater than normal. Once a vaccine comes and we have spending properly, or will there be a lot of precautionary saving for a long time and how will the policymakers react to this. This is a big thing also, what do people spend on. We had a completely unprecedented spending we have ever seen before in the downturn. Suggestwould be the consumption of 2021 . Erik we will continue to see what we have seen which is a big shift to global. People buying furniture, refrigerators and stuff for the house because they will not spend the money on traveling in restaurants. Once the vaccine is rolled out to the general public, hopefully by summer or sometime into next year, then i suspect we can see a big shift. We have bought our furniture and now we really need to go see each other again at a restaurant. A big shift back to social consumption. Tom social consumption, is that enough of a gdp to lift us not so much out of recession, but to shift us away from this inflationary trends . Tough. His is what you are seeing now and what you will see in the process of 2021 will be very big relative price changes. The inflation concern is going to be completely modeled by big relative price changes for a led. Le of years mudde too bigut gap will be to drive inflation back to the target for a long time. Does janet yellen as treasury secretary mean for the rest of the world . Wonderful news in my opinion. Things, i think her philosophy and her thinking is more along the way we think about fiscal policy and obviously she is super competent, an internationalist, a globalist and believes in multilateralism. Taking in america , a formal central banker as finance minister. In europe we have finance ministers taking over Monetary Policy. In a postpandemic world, we will get a better understanding and cooperation between fiscal policy and Monetary Policy. Does it mean that will limit the chances of a policy mistake and does it policy or do youo big now have reservations about a resurgence of inflation into 2021 . No, it is impossible to navigate without making mistakes along the way. I think the key issue and i am quoting, it is about getting all the information, having the guts to make the policies and the humility to adjust along the way. I think i got that right. That is key. Getting janet yellen in the treasury in america should give you the competence and i believe the guts to inform yourself along the way. The risk for me is that policymakers will do too little. I cannot see any serious risk of doing too much. That. Ope, we risk doing , thank you sosen much. We are thrilled he can be with us. I want to review the markets after the extraordinary day yesterday. You heard the president speaking about dow 30,000. Right now nasdaq back to 12,000 level. Up 34 . Underx, we are actually 22 my really interesting to see what the vix does here, how it resets around certainty and uncertainty. Yields have not done much in the last couple of days. A weaker dollar. This is bloomberg. , next. Emanuel we need support for the economy, monetary and fiscal policy and Monetary Policy has already done enough. I strongly believe Central Banks need to be independent and need to do everything they can. Do see the sentiment and the push is now going very much in the direction of the regulation, reducing buffers, reducing authorities and i am worried about where this is going appropriately designed tax reform could have a favorable effect on productivity. It obviously depends on the details of what you do. We need Public Policy oriented toward making a big difference on climate change, a very carbonnt way to price aduld be to go to the mine he where energy creates carbon emission, enters the economy. The tariffs may make goods more competitive, the appreciation of the currency will offset that. I regarded that as not the proper foc. Let me be clear, i do think the United States has real issues in terms of its trade relations with china. Economist janet yellen and you heard the economic talk. How will that shift on the coming weeks . Remember when we had somebody this unique in this senior of a position. Francine i think it is the first time that someone goes from being the president of the fed to actually being treasury secretary. This is unprecedented time so it will be interesting to see how she calibrates this. That bloomberg story that Steve Mnuchin is planning to set aside 455 billion that would make it much harder for janet yellen and she will need authorization from congress to use it. It will be interesting to see how she navigates that. Tom the first battle in washington presumed after the inauguration of january 20. In our next hour, william lee of the milken institute. A perfect time to catch up with him on the changing of administration. Bill lee on the pacific rim. Please stay with us. This is bloomberg. Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of woing demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. 30,000. S morning, dow how that extrapolates out the christmas 2023. Jp morgan this november elevates 26 . Oil this morning less than dollar, weaker. In california, 12 percent of infected will be hospitalized. Battalion deaths are back to late march levels. Italian deaths are back to corn andh levels very cobb resting comfortably after a president ial pardon. Decembern the presumed president ial pardons. Bloombergng, surveillance. Tom keene in new york and Francine Lacqua in london. This is a tradition, president truman coming out of world war ii they did