With its trial. There were two trial participants. One had efficacy of 90 . The other was lower than that, in the 60s. You average that, and it its about 70 . We will see how the market is moving on that. We want to welcome now to our bloomberg tv and radio on a sense Radio Audience astrazenecas executive vice president. It is really good to see you. When itways welcome, comes to good news over solid vaccines. The question it seems people want insert is talk about that 90 efficacy. That seems to have been a smaller group. Give me some insight into it. How many confirmed cases were there in that group . Try tot of all, let me summarize the headline data. Overall, we have seen efficacy about two efficacy of up to 90 and about half of those in the Clinical Trial. We have seen roughly 3000 volunteers in that cohort of the Clinical Trial, and it was highly significant that we saw less infections, and in fact, across all of the cohorts, you other the cohorts, whether you had the full dose, there was no reason for hospitalization or severe illness, including death. Overall, in our view, he very compelling dataset, now in the hands of the regulator in order tell us what they think about the data. Guy why the difference between the halffull and the full vaccine regimes . The one question, and to be honest, we are also surprised to see the data over the weekend coming in. Our own scientists are looking into it and what caused it. There are theories that priming the immune system with a relatively low dose and then if you get the full boost one month later, that will be more effective but this is clearly one of the elements that scientists and clinical developers still need to sort out. Alix do you not know . Is that what my take away is . Some of the criticism is that you are just highlighting the good data, but we dont actually know what that 90 efficacy rate was part of. There were fewer people in that study. We want to know more about them, and you dont seem to have it. What is going on there . Ruud i think the most important piece is irrespective of the dosing, if you get vaccinated, it is clear that the vaccine is effectiveness of 100 , irrespective of the dosing. That is important to remember. We have to say it is still speculation about what can cause the high efficacy in this low dose and high dose regimen. Dontexciting, but we know what is driving it exactly, and be assured that our scientists and clinical developers will do everything to give an answer on that sooner rather than later. Guy you talked about the fda there. Lets talk about what is happening in the United States. Current regime being tested in the United States is not the more effective one. Switch theng to trial in the u. S. To the halffull . Does that mean starting a whole new trial, or can you do that midway through the trial you are currently running . Ruud that is an excellent question. First of all, in the course of this week, we will discuss the data with regulatory agencies across the world, and the u. K. , in europe, but also with the fda in the United States. Based on that feedback, we will adjust our Clinical Trial if the fda is agreeing with our approach. We still need to remember that the trial in the United States is still running. It is a very large trial. We try to get or than 30,000 participants in that trial. As we speak, we have now roughly 11,000 participants in the trial. So if we need to include an extra arm in that trial, we still have more than enough time to do that. Alix one of the analysts had really critical things to say about the trial. One of them is it is never going to get approved in the u. S. They said in a note that you tried to embellish results by highlighting reported 90 efficacy in a reverence for flea subjectrelatively small , that only discredits the program. Like i mentioned, goes on to say it will never get approval in the u. S. What is your response . Ruud i think those comments are quite harsh. We need to realize that the study has been executed by top scientists from oxford, as well as astrazeneca. We will publish later in the week the full dataset, so they are working aroundtheclock in order to give full disability about full visibility about the different cohorts, and it is unfair to speculate about how regulators will react. Certainly the fda in the United States, we are running a very special trial with more than 30,000 participants, so lets be a bit more patient and see how the fda will react before making such arch statements such harsh statements. Guy when will you be applying for emergency use authorization in the United States . What kind of timeline are we on . Ruud especially for the United States, it is slightly more complex. First of all, we need to disclose all of our data to the fda. We will do that in the course of this week. The main question is whether the fda wants to have the u. S. Study included in the overall package. If that is the case, it will still take a bit of time because we are only at 10,000, 11,000 participants in the phase three trial, and we need to include more than 30,000. If they are willing to include the Oxford Astrazeneca study in the u. K. And brazil, a course we will do that. Then it is in the hands of the regulators to decide how fast they will move for potential emergency use approval. Alix why is the vaccine from you guys easier to store relative to the mrna, which would make it super viable for particularly emerging Market Countries . Ruud that is an excellent question as well. The platforms are completely different. Platform is the oxford platform, a wellknown platform. The big advantage is you can store it in the refrigerator, and there is no need to store it in an ultracold manner. That has huge implications, of course, especially for developing markets, as a bubbly everyone knows. We are making this vaccine available at no profit, and we are extremely keen to do this in an equitable way. So we have large supply chains in india, in other parts of the far east, in order to make the vaccine available to as many people around the world as possible. Guy you talk about the manufacturing in india. My understanding is the vaccine is already being manufactured. How far along is the process in india or elsewhere around the world . How many doses do you think you might have available by year end . Ruud we are talking about tens of millions at year end. We hope to have hundreds of millions in the First Six Months of 2021. So we are ramping up extremely fast. We have a specific supply chain in the United States, in the u. K. , in mainland europe, india, russia, japan, latin america, and brazil. So it is a massive effort. We are working with multiple partners around the world in order to make that happen. As you can imagine, it is extremely exciting and inspiring to work on a potential solution of the covid19 infection. Guy thanks for your time today. Greatly appreciate it. Astrazeneca executive biopharmaceuticals unit vice president. To write down everything we just heard, lets bring in drew seniorng, bloomberg editor. Using we got questions do you think we got answers to questions that the market is asking . There seems to be a lack of clarity on why we are getting a difference between the two regimes that are being tested. Fundamentally, what you very larges two trials [indiscernible] where in the case of pfizer, you had a 40,000 plus person trial, and mentor knighthead 30,000 plus and modernity had 30,000 plus, and astrazenecas best comparison is from a relatively small group of patients that they are still following, fewer than 3000 people. So the reality is youve got two groups that have gone very far data,ast in convincing and astrazeneca showing something that looks more like a midstate trial result a midstage trial result you might see when youre still trying to figure out how your drug or your vaccine works, and who it works in. This looks promising, but they have more work to do, and that takes time is the fundament of reaction you are seeing in the market right now. Alix what would happen if a drug like from astrazeneca didnt get approval in the u. S. , or got approval much later than in, say, europe . If you are european and you have that vaccine, can you come into the u. S. . What happens if we have a disparate world were different vaccines are approved differently . How does the world continue to interact . Remember that there are advantages to the astrazeneca storage in particular, and that is not to be discounted when youre talking about deploying a vaccine to billions of people around the globe who live in very different circumstances with Different Health care systems. Theres always the expedition that there are going to be multiple purges here. Those type of logistical hurdles are really important. The other thing to keep in mind here that people sometimes forget is that the vaccine is not just about individual protection. It is great if you have a vaccine. It is also about lots of other people, ones who havent been vaccinated. [indiscernible] immunity you have alix drew, i am going to have to cut you off. We are having some difficulty of your audio. Sorry about that, drew. That is drew armstrong walking through the vaccine landscape. Joining us now for a broader reaction on a macro level is jan hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist. You guys are quite bullish about growth next year, definitely out of consensus. The markets, in terms of the vaccine news, the positive reaction is waning. What do you expect on the economic level . Havei think right now, we a lot of Different Things going on. Quite a lot of bad news in terms of just the infections, especially in the u. S. In europe we are seeing some improvement in the last couple of weeks, but in the u. S. , the numbers are still getting worse. I thing there is a bit more uncertainty also around the fiscal outlook. Forhaved our expectations what we are likely to see under divided government, from a 1 a 700n number two billion number. Still a sizable amount, but quite a bit less than what you would expect in a democrat sweep scenario. Neartermrms of the boost to growth, it is going to be smaller. I think that does mean softer numbers in the shortterm. We did shave our q4 and q1 numbers. We now have quite slow growth over those two quarters, but as you get into 2021, especially as we get into the spring, with the vaccine news continuing to be very positive, and also with the likelihood that we are going to have a temperature headwind as we get into the spring, i think infections are going to come down because we are learning a lot about the temperature sensitivity of covid infections. Q2, q3 are very strong. 9. 5 , also those to 7 in q3. Q3,till think that by q2, we will be back at the prepandemic level, and we will see good growth thereafter, no longer as rapid, but we continue to have a lot of conviction in the idea that this is more vshaped, or vaccine shaped, then i think a lot of other forecasters have in their numbers. Guy can i just talk a little bit about that post vaccine phase . We get a bounceback, and then you are saying we return to relatively strong growth, more normal growth. With a slight discount. How big a discount do you think it will be as a result of the huge amount of debt that now exists on government Balance Sheets and corporate Balance Sheets . Do you think that will be a drag , and housing for can will it be . And how significant will it be . Jan we think q2 and q3 are going to be the strongest 2020,rs, other than q3 of and after that we will still see strong growth for 2022. Our forecast is for about 4 annual average, just about as rapid as in the bounceback phase. I think what you are asking is what are the longterm scarring effects on the level of output from may be temporary labor in the hugeuptions spike in unemployment, may be bankruptcies, may be a debt overhang. Our view is generally those things are not going to have a large impact, but it is certainly possible that the level output three to five years out is going to be a little below what you what is expected prepandemic. So far, we havent really seen a lot of clear evidence of these kinds of scarring effects. Bankruptcies have been generally lower than a lot of people thought. The decline in the Unemployment Rate has been pretty rapid. A lot of people are temporarily unemployed. The news has been pretty good so far. Alix thats fair, but the trajectory or the direction is a little bit dicier. You talk about permanent unemployed. It feels like theres an increase in that, rising numbers of the longterm unemployed. Is your base case that once the vaccine is there, that these people have been hired back . What do you do with those people . Jan over time, that would be our base case. It is obviously not going to be immediate. By the end of 2021, we still have an Unemployment Rate of so prepandemic we were at 3. 5 . It will take it while before you get back down to those kinds of , there are ae yes sizable number of people whose jobs have disappeared, but the vast majority of the sharp spike in unemployment that we saw in march and april was temporary layoffs, but theres still a group of people where it is going to take longer for them to get jobs. I do think that policymakers can do a lot to minimize these kinds of longerterm effects. With strong growth, there is still a good case, a very strong case in my view for accommodative policies on the fiscal side, but also on the monetary side. We think even with these growth numbers, the fed is going to continue to be very accommodative. We are expecting an increase in the average majority of the qe anyhases, and we dont have hikes in our forecast until the earliest 2025. So we think that policy is going to be an important factor in all of this. Guy given that, do you think that, given the debt loads relative to gdp we are seeing around the world, that debt is sustainable if we are to see Interest Rates rising . Do you think there is any risk we see Interest Rates rising . At what level would become problematic . Jan i think over time, you should expect Interest Rates to rise, especially at the longer and as you get closer to the end of the zero rate area. So if the fed and the ecb and other Central Banks maybe start moving rates higher in early 2025, markets are going to anticipate that, so i think you increasesild in some into your forecast, and also your sentiment of fiscal sustainability. If you have some increases in rates on a cyclical basis, but you still believe as i do that a significant part of the decline in rates relative to the 1980s and 1990s is more structural in nature, then you can also have a higher debt load then what was feasible 30 years ago. So i think in terms of the overall Debt Service Burden that governments are going to be the highern with burden gdp ratios, the is still probably going to be lower than the peak rates we saw in past decades. If there is a big increase in rates, it becomes more problematic. But it would have to be pretty aggressive in terms of what you build in to construct a scenario that i would be really worried about. Alix which makes the fiscal impulse also quite important. Your base case is 1 trillion in stimulus. I wanted to get your understanding, is it better for the economy to get a smaller deal faster, or hold out until january, february, early march and try for a bigger deal once the senate has been decided . Jan we actually took down the ife case from 1 trillion there is divided government, so this assumes that democrats do not win both of these runoff races in georgia. If they do, we would be talking about much larger numbers, but in a divided government scenario , we are at 700 billion. We would expect that to come after january 20. If you could have a down payment in the shorterterm, a smaller number, a few hundred billion, and then with the option of coming back and adding to that, i think that probably would be better in terms of supporting income and supporting state and local governments, depending on what the components would be. I think the decision that has to includes an additional deal after january 20, after the inauguration. That is more of a tactical political question. I dont necessarily have a superstrong view on it. But i think at the moment, the economy does need some additional support, getting that out more quick additional support, so getting that were quickly would be positive. Guy would you expect a flatter curve after this weeks fed minutes . I. E. , is the fed going to be buying more duration . Jan i think in general, our expectation that the curve steepens, for the reasons i just outlined, basically because the longer end in a good Growth Scenario moves to anticipate the eventual highs much earlier than the short end of the curve, tactically that is obviously not always going to be in a Straight Line if there is significant expectation of longer majority purchases, and that should help the longer end. I think there is a reasonable case for that at the december meeting. Strategictical and from the movement here. Guy ok. Alix what are we doing . We are wrapping, right . Guy we can probably say thanks to jan. We are basically arguing over who gets to say thank you for your time today, which we greatly appreciate. Hatzius,s jan Goldman Sachs chief economist. On the agenda, the simmering transatlantic trade battle over the french tax on technology giants. I spoke to Bruno Le Maire on that very issue. As we always explained to the we need tostration, have an oecd agreement by the first months of 2021 because we remain convinced that the best situation in the best way of dealing with this key question of digital taxation is to get much more agreement within the. Ramework of the oecd so we will not spare our efforts convince the new biden adminstration to join our consensus. Little conversation a earlier on with french finance minister Bruno Le Maire. We will have a little more on that interview later. It was fascinating. He is certainly focusing on trying to resolve that issue. France is taking a different attitude, a harsher attitude, some would say. An impressionet that biden would make a material difference at the end of the day . Defund a mental issue is still there the fund a issue is still there the fundamental issue is still there. Guy i think it is in national issue. Both sides really supporting the idea that these are u. S. Tech companies, and as a result, need to be protected. Amazon has decided it is not going to take part in black friday in france this year. Other major Online Companies have been doing the same thing as well. More smaller companies, so theres already a change in behavior as a result of what is happening in europe. Alix meanwhile here, black friday online started last week for pretty much all stores. We may not be in the store, but we are still doing it. Coming up, we are going to stick with europe. The virus lockdowns in europe pushing economies to another contraction. We will speak to enter balls pimco globalls, fixed income cio. We are right around the highs of the session after the bloomberg eller index hit a low bloomberg dollar index hit a low. This is bloomberg. Are you frustrated with your weight and health . 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This is bloomberg markets. French finance minister Bruno Le Maire says he is working on new aid for bars, hotels, and restaurants, and hopes to unveil plans this week. The president is going to speak tomorrow. Earlier, he and i caught up to talk about Debt Reduction plans. Able altogether to overcome this crisis, and i am very confident that there will not be any problem of debt sustainability within the euro zone. We have the protection of the and the decisions taken by Christine Lagarde and the board of the ecb. Second, we have adopted a coordinated approach, the first time in our history that we have decided to launch altogether of 750l recovery plans, billion euros. That is the first time in that we haveory been able to coordinate on european recovery plan. For the first time, we have decided to raise common debts agether, which means there is commonality between spain, france, germany, italy that will protect us from the bad elements of the crisis. Because of those, i do not see any problem of debt the nextility over decade within the euro zone. Guy you said we do not have a debt sustainability problem because of the ecb and the paneuropean fund. If the ecb wasnt there, are you suggesting that debt would not be sustainable . I am just explaining that the fact is that alone, things are far more difficult, and if the numbers of the euro zone would be without the support of the common currency and without the support of the ecb, i think that the situation would be worse for many countries. That is why it is helpful for all of us. Conversation with Bruno Le Maire a little earlier on. That ecb support can be critical as the euro area slips into another contraction due to new virus restrictions. ,oining us now, andrew balls pimco Global Fixed Income cio. Can we talk a little bit about the Market Perception of europe at the moment, whether or not it is being a little too relaxed . A have a Recovery Fund and seven year budget that is currently stalled because hungary and poland basically are vetoing it. You do wonder about the sustainability of debt if the ecb wasnt standing there, and you do wonder why the market is so comfortable with italy, for instance, as a credit risk right now. Do you think the market is kind of taking it a little bit . Andrew you clearly always have a problem in europe, with the eurozone having one central bank , a whole host of fiscal positively, both the ecb and the fiscal authorities have reacted quite well, compared with the experience of the past decade. It has been a big positive. So yes, im sure theres problems with the Recovery Fund. Im sure they will stay up late. That seems to be what happens , even anpeans agreement, but it seems likely they will get this done. If you look at europe in aggregate, the debt level is not as high compared with the u. S. , compared with the u. K. , so i think it is always the political coordination issues. I would expect that europe should be pretty stable unless it tips into a different sort of equilibrium, which is possible if the crossborder issues or the ecb support is called into question. Alix what would change that dynamic . At what point does the debt burden just become too much . We talk about how we are going to normalize and get back to where we were in 2019, but the big difference is these massive debt levels and no austerity insight. Andrew i dont think it is the debt itself. Look at japan. Japan has a debt level which is way higher than the european average. So then it is about these crossborder coordination issues. Italy, i always think to myself, is italy borrowing in its own currency or borrowing in a foreign currency . Obviously countries which borrow in their own currency have much greater stability compared with, say, emerging markets that borrow in foreign currency. I think with italy, it is really ,ot clear, but the ecb support the crossborder fund i think are positive, and theres risk premium embedded. Look at the level of italian spreads. Look at Corporate Credit spreads, for example. Theres risk premium there. Debt isitalys public relatively attractive, very liquid instrument as well. But the problem is in europe, you can never say that you cant imagine scenarios in which this is called into question. For example, the ecb changing its behavior, german finance ministers Start Talking up the need for default in the euro zone. These things have happened before, so that is why the risk premium is there. Guy or italian politics taking a different turn, which it certainly has done. Andrew yes, absolutely. In many ways, i am assuming if the italians stay on course, that could certainly throw things off, but even with good action in italy, it can be thrown off i events elsewhere. If you look at the euros in financial crisis, there is a reasonable case italy was a victim, not the perpetrator. Guy we saw some fairly bleak in the euro today zone, particularly the french numbers, which on the Services Side looked really white grim. Can i extrapolate full pmi data and decide to do significantly more in december . People like you, and i wonder if you are, go out and buy more because thee btps balance moves more in favor if the central bank is going to do more. I think the ecb action in december is priced in. Never say never again. There could be a big reaction to that announcement, but the market is pricing in an , that is forqe sure. I think the interesting thing in the pmi is yes, it is weak, and it looks like we are clearly having a doubledip recession, but if you look at the scale of the fall and the pmi compared with the spring, it is far less. 50 or 40 in down to the spring, partly with the strength in many factoring, partly services not doing as badly maybe. So a doubledip recession, we have been expecting that given the lockdown, but it shouldnt be as big an impact as the spring. Alix what is the impact going bdpbund spread, for example . I wonder if we are just a few weeks or a month behind where europe actually is. Andrew if you look at the data all year, the u. S. Compared with the euros in average, the u. S. Has looked much better. Germany looks good within the euro zone and relative to it, but the u. S. Has done better this year. We see a much deeper recession in the euro zone. The lockdowns have been much more extensive. Looking forward, you have the peaking of numbers it looks like in europe, the improvement in a number of cases with this second round of stringent lockdowns. The number is still going higher in the u. S. , so a slightly different path. Forecasts look at our , we see a much deeper recession overall for europe this year, and pretty similar probably a recovery next year, so the u. S. Is getting back to its previous becauseite a bit faster lots of people have different views on the right path to take, but in the u. S. , there has been less of a hit in terms of Economic Activity given the path that has been followed. Guy what are you expecting for the fed minutes this week . There seems to be some debate about whether or not there is going to be a switch to buy more duration. Is that something you would anticipate . Do you think it would be a good idea . Andrew i think that is quite possible. Have actually been focusing at the shorter end of the curve more, so i think that is quite possible. So we will see there. I think in terms of the market impact, that is something which wouldnt be too much of a surprise. Isterms of curfews, our view that it makes sense to be in the intermediate part of the curve, the five to 10 year part of the curve, given the prospects of economic recovery, given good news on vaccines and given the pledges from the Federal Reserve that they will be much slower in overtime tightening policy, compared with the last time around. Hopefullybination of the continued good news on the vaccine front, the potential for a pretty good recovery next year, and a central bank committed to anchoring the front end of the curve, i think that is the kind of environment where you could see somewhat higher yields in the long end of the curve, regardless of a shift in the feds buying. Not a massive shift, given the growth outlook, the Economic Outlook is still cloudy, but i think the curve steepening definitely makes it. Alix what happens to credit spreads in that scenario . Andrew the credit spreads are pretty tight. Cash credit spreads are pretty much back to the precovid types , so from our point of view, generic credit is not super interesting here. You need to be active, look for the names where you do see potential for spread compression , or you just see the superior return potential. I think financials are generally pretty attractive, and depending on the strategy you are running, some of the highyield names that have been most affected by this covid crisis have the potential for ongoing recovery in the better environment, the good news from the vaccine. Andt of the leisure transport related credit has already tightened, of course, but i think theres still pretty good opportunities there. Of the credits that you are watching at the moment do you think run the risk of insolvency . The fed, other Central Banks have made the availability of credit a key plank in their policy formulations. You do wonder whether some of these companies in normal circumstances, in a normal downturn, would have been able to avail themselves of this money. Do you now see a risk that some of these credits will fall foul of bankruptcy . Andrew yes, i think that is quite likely. Of greathis period support, really significant , supportn europe across the board. I think as you proceed through next year, there will be more differentiation between winners and losers, and there will be losers, so i think in the highquality portfolios i deal with, i think financials remain quite attractive. Senior debts, subordinated debts reallyefault risk is not a significant factor. I think in more opportunistic strategies, you can find good opportunities with the riskier highyield Debt Companies which have been hampered and will continue to be hampered. You need to work very carefully picking the winners, clearly. Alix andrew, it was wonderful to catch up with you. Good to chat. Coming up, we are going to speak with someone who has been investing in companies conducting vaccine trials, kkrs health care cohead. We will also break down how the industry has changed and where the Investment Opportunities are. Guy as we had to break, weeding to take you to the house of commons. Boris johnson is addressing putterman terriens addressing parliamentarians from isolation at 10 downing street, indicating that with covid plans to get us safely to the spring, we are waiting to see when the national down will end. It will end on december 2. What comes after it . Boris johnson to speak. This is bloomberg. Sensiblethout precautions, we would risk the virus escalating into the winter or a new year. Year. Ritika this is bloomberg markets. Coming up on bloomberg schulman, today, dan paypal ceo. This is bloomberg. We are also surprised to see the data over the weekend coming in. You can imagine that the scientists are now looking into it, what can cause it. There are theories that year that you are priming the immune system with a relatively low dose, and with another, that will be more effective. This is clearly one of the elements the scientists and clinical developers still need to sort out. Ofx that was ruud dobber astrazeneca speaking to us earlier this hour. , a kkr backedarch company, is responsible for signing patients upper vaccine trials signing patients up for vaccine trials. Kkr has recently been investing in argenta and a new platform deviceng portfolio companies. Isting us is joining us tvat, kkrs cohead of health care portfolios. Ali it is great to speak to you again. On the trials, we are excited about where the space is going. I think this is a good time to reflect on the past and the present, also to have hope for the future, and i think this is a reminder of the resilience of health care. You look at a company like headwinds. We have been involved in a lot of these trials, including the one getting news today and the ones of the last several days. There will be trials for some time as they find the optimal vaccine for large numbers of people across the world. We do think that the promises of the develops that a been announced so far are quite positive, and we are pretty excited about where that is going. Guy can i ask about the granularity of what you just said . These are going to be tweaked. There are going to be reformulations. Is it your sense that we will need to have ongoing trials as a result of that . Because there doesnt seem to be a difference between a messenger rna trial, whether it is simply going to change and we be vaccine a little bit, or the astra vaccine, which may need more significant ongoing trials. Can you give us more granularity in what you are expecting . Ali i think the science is fastmoving here. You have to appreciate that this will be one of the fastest vaccines developed, and you have to be careful in the vaccine world to make sure what you are people whowith helps day one. On we have to get vaccines and hands based on these early results, including astrazeneca, pfizer, and others. Would you think these trials will go on for some time and the Scientific Community will attempt to really optimize going forward, and based on what we understand right now, covid is not going to go away anytime soon. The hope will be that over time, we will have additional trials to finetune the details of these different approaches, and make sure we have a vaccine that is as close to perfect as possible. The flu vaccine, for example, is not perfect. But the view that we can get better and better i think is something that we absolutely share. Alix where is the best opportunity . Two that stand out to me is telemedicine, and the other is the persistent conversation about socialized health care, particularly here in the u. S. Are there any opportunities you see coming out of it based on those . Experiencethink this of health care changing israel. It is a dynamic space, a 4 trillion market in the u. S. Alone, but we think theres a tremendous amount of resiliency here. I think the way we look at the landscape is we are mindful of what is going to happen. Secular demand growth remains largely unchanged. We look to the need for Innovative Products and Services Within health care. There will be some differences in how people interact with the health care system, whether it is through different sites of care, different means of collaborating with their providers. We do think things like telemedicine will matter. We have also been spending time in spaces like supply chain, which people have obviously been focused on, may be in as much detail as they should have been prior to covid. We see the vulnerabilities we have all been exposed to in our supply chain. An investment we made recently in a Company Called argenta is a good example of the supply chain focus. We have also been spending time on that theme from a human health standpoint. Guy how big a shift do you think we are going to see more broadly in the Health Care Sector in terms of valuations . Costig a shift has covid covid caused . Ali i think covid has were minded folks at large that Health Care Matters Area Health Care is going to be very important. The biofarma industry, for example, will save humanity. That sounds like a very grandiose statement, but theres a lot of truth in that. Just seeing valuations in certain subsectors increase, we think the resilience in growth, the consistent secular growth we have seen over long periods of time will continue. That doesnt mean theres not opportunities to invest, though. As we look at it, the beauty of health care in this 4 trillion market in the u. S. Alone, there are multiple areas to invest. Growth gets paid for, innovation gets rewarded, and you continue to believe there is a gap in innovation for funding. That doesnt mean that everything is cheaply valued today. But we do see between secular growth in the space and the opportunities for new advancements in innovation, we are actually quite constructive on where we see the market going and the opportunities for us to continue to invest. Alix really fascinating. Thank you very much, ali s atvat. I just want to point out that no, guy, you are updating us. No, i am going. Guy i can update you. You can talk about your favorite subject. Alix i will talk about my thing, and then you will talk about your thing. This is what everyone in the commodity market right now is talking about. You are seeing a rally in crude, by about 2 for brent. But it is the curve that is really interesting because you are seeing the curve rerate a little bit. You are seeing the contango structure, when prices today are a lot cheaper than later, that is being reduced quite quickly. In fact, theres only been two other times in history it has been reduced this quickly, and that is making a lot of oil in storage uneconomic to store. Does that come back on the market . Are we looking at some kind of flood of oil coming, no matter what china and india went up by . Guy now my thing, which is christmas. [laughter] thats what Boris Johnson is talking about. Boris johnson is speaking virtually to the house of commons at the moment, talking about what is going to happen with the stayathome orders that currently exist. Those are going to end on december 2. Christmas is not going to be very normal this year. Basically, were going to return to a tiered system. We are going to find out which regions are in those tiers this week. En of saxo bank is going to join us next. This is bloomberg. Guy live from london, im guy johnson, with alix steel in new york. We are continue down to the european close on bloomberg markets. Within the last hour, astrazeneca has told us that critics need to be patient, at least until the end of the week. Lets talk about what is happening at 10 downing street and the European Commission could potentially be having a facetoface meeting between Boris Johnson and ursula von der leyen. The pound moving off the back of that news. Despite surging deaths in the euro zone, the french finance minister telling bloomberg that he is not worried about sustainability. Lets talk about what is happening with markets right now. These are the details that we have. The stoxx 600 is up by 0. 2 . Energy doing well, mining stocks doing well
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