Moment. It is moving markets, but theres a lot of stuff percolating. The Dollar Strength really has my attention. I would go to the news released in the 5 00 hour of the reports that mr. Netanyahu met with the crown prince of saudi arabia. These really havent been vetted out by the israeli or saudi government yet, but i wonder if that helped a little bit as well. Jonathan i dont know about that, tom. News, dollaraccine weakness, can we touch about that a little bit more . The dollar taking out the lows on dxy. Es, we will see how bbdx do and the others. What i would note is the mexican peso. Comes through, hits 20 this morning. That is just one little snapshot of the complexity of e. M. Pairs doing well. Dm,than from e. M. To everything stronger against the u. S. Dollar. Yields up a couple of basis points. Lisa, good morning to you. Supply coming through the week. Lisa we will be getting 190 billion of debt, fiveyear notes. I dont know if you did this reading over the weekend about the inflation outlook in the near term and how theres a real divergence of views on whether we will overshoot with the fed target of 2 , or under shoot. Morgan stanley seeing a pretty significant overshoot. Looking for that in the bond market today. Also today, michigan and pennsylvania are likely to certify the election results. The election has moved on if you look at markets, and yet there still is this tension. At what point will the republican pressure come to enough of a head to get President Trump to concede, or at least get the transition crew to give information to the biden adminstration . Also today, the white house may issue a list of 80 Nine Companies denied access to u. S. Tech imports. Chinese companies. How much is the trump i adminstration going to try to , and how much will this come look at the efforts to try to get out some sort of track to recover on the other side . Jonathan how much daylight will there be between the two administrations when it comes to china . It is a really good point. We will touch on the perspectives changes in the cabinet coming up in the next four years. We might get details on that in the next 24 hours. I want to touch on the markets quickly. Theres a cyclical tilt again to this market. Europe with a lift, small caps with a lift. We got used to this now. Up 18 on the s p. Eurodollar, this move has been absent. Eurodollar reclaiming a 1. 19 handle. In an index heavily weighted to the single currency, taking out the lows of early september. We head north by two basis points to 0. 8488 . Theres the move in the crude market. I think weve got the postcovid stock highs in the crude market on wti and brent. Cents 45. 49. Without question with e. M. Strength, bbdxy breaks out to new dollar weakness. Jonathan multiyear lows. Weve got to start the conversation this moaning where we started every single monday the previous two weeks. Tom everyday. Jonathan do it with sam fazeli, bloomberg intelligence. Sam gets to join us when we get good news. This morning we heard from astrazeneca. I have to say, this one was harder to read them what we heard from moderna and pfizer. When you get two different, three different efficacy numbers thrown out there, can you walk us through what you are focused on and what we should be focused on . Sam good morning, and yes, it is good news. Not as good as what weve had, but still good news. I would have to say that it always worries me a little bit when data, you start getting these subgroups thrown out in the press release. To me, i am going to read this as a 70 efficacy vaccine until i see the details of the group that had the 90 in the 62 . You cant ignore the 62 . We just have to understand why there was a difference. There isnt enough information there for me to figure that out, so we are going to run with 70 , but that is still not bad. This is what we were looking for when we first got these vaccines. Tom Deutsche Bank moments ago put out a chart of herd immunity, the different nations as they try to get to this important concept, where maybe the virus and the pandemic ebbs away. What does the fazeli herd immunity chart look like . How distant is it . Sam ive tried to draw that chart many times, and every time i do it, i find far too many variables. Tom totally agree. Sam the toughest one is how many people actually go lineup and take the vaccine. I hope that, knowing that we are always far too optimistic, lets say the second half. Jonathan sam, short and sweet. Great to catch up, sir. Hope we can do this monday with even more good news. Want to start the market conversation with amy wu silverman, Rbc Capital Markets equity derivatives strategist. A word that gets thrown around a lot in conversations on wall street is the word complacency. In your world, do you see signs of the cword . [laughter] amy a little bit, yes. We have heard this narrative a lot now, that the market is just going to look through how bad the covid rates are. Vesely would get good news from the vaccines, but that only justifies that camp. For me as a derivatives person, i say what is the secondorder effect that is happening with derivatives . Our people hedging under the hood . Are they nervous . The short answer is no. You dont see it priced into the upcoming dates we have for election confirmation. You dont see it in hedging demand. The Options Market also believes we are going to look through this into next year. Lisa and while on the technical front, there was a note out over the weekend from your colleague of jp morgan predicting that there will be in hundred 60 billion of selling of equities as the number of pensions and big investors rotate into that 60 40 portfolio. Do you think that is a possible tension heading into year end . Amy it is interesting you bring that up. Tension rebalancing is a sort of irregular occurrence. While that is something that is happening, one thing that we are also tracking is what is. Appening in the position data this group of investors, real money, as well as pensions at the start of the pandemic was and wely under invested, have seen this come into this market, and what are they doing . They are actually buying value and selling tech. The other part of this is this is sort of the opposite of what we have seen from the big retail that has driven a lot of the exuberance in tech. I think that there is still a lot of money on the sidelines that will come into value, but at the same time, we havent seen retail setups awaited for tech. I wonder if that could still provide a headwind as well. Tom this is too sophisticated for early monday morning. This is a really smart conversation, and important, folks. Amy, this comes in waves. , a bunch oftion physics talk for it comes in waves. What will you try to observe when tech does a little better, value cyclical eases off . What will you try to look for to see which way it cuts into the future . Last class was years ago. Tom mine was this weekend. Continue. [laughter] amy there you go. There are a couple of things we look for in terms of stats from options. Skew. At is really key is essentially the imbalance that we see between the put aside versus the call side. The reason this matters so much is this was one of the primary drivers we saw that really kept tech going, in particular in august. The Options Market itself was actually driving the market, but also for sentimental reasons. If we see this starting to Company Recovery name, which we havent really yet, that is a very strong line that you are going to get an Even Stronger inflection to this value side. Keenehe only skew in the house is should we wet brine or dry brine the turkey. Moneymaking, big decisions, do they get in the way of a rational reassessment year . Amy those trades which have been in the market have obviously, a lot of them have been rolled off, and others have not come in the money. Theres always a possibility for getting reloaded because that is a very large look money. Avenue no idea, obviously, if that is going to happen specifically for softbank come up with the other strong driver of that is retail, possibly more than softbank, although softbank is the one to gets written up the most. If that happens, you will start to see that skew go negative the way it goes for Something Like tesla. Lisa just to tie this all together, given all of these crosscurrents you are talking about, it seems like there isnt necessarily going to be the big pullback that some people who have come on this show are predicting, due to the fact that we are seeing a surge in virus cases. Do you think that is accurate . That given all of the uncertainty, given the fact that you are not seeing a big short position or anything in the Derivatives Market that would suggest turmoil, it is just going to be buy . Amy this is a question i thing about a lot. I think one thing to say is if there is a very sharp inflection as we have seen between value and tech, the issue is this is all going on under the hood. Your Overall Indexing levels may remain flat, even if you have very strong recovery names going up. I look back to 2016. Something very similar happen when trump became president. You saw a lot of under the Hood Movement with financial, industrial, and tech. The Overall Index basically kind of wafted along. Jonathan amy, great to catch up with you. Amy wu silverman of Rbc Capital Markets, thank you. This morning, more promising news from astrazeneca that gives this market a little bit more of a lift. Up 16 points on the s p 500. We advanced 0. 5 . Tom no question about that. It is a beautiful world, jon. Renminbi, 6. 56, holds on as well. Do you see what i am wearing today . Jonathan what are you wearing . Tom for bloomberg radio, they can tell lisa it is a bowtie. Tom no, i am out in blue, in tatts in tots blue. Tottenham blue. Jonathan were you happy with the result . Tom i thought it was just wonderful. I thought the other team didnt kick the ball from far out enough. They would have done better if they kick the ball farther out. Jonathan you should write a column on a monday. [laughter] i would read that. Tom nbc sports is all over me. Lisa kick the ball harder. Jonathan i am sure the team at nbc sports are kicking in this morning, quaking in their boots. [laughter] tom i am going to be on the zoom thing with vet bill. Jonathan coming up on this , be my, Vincent Reinhart melon chief economist. Coming up shortly, right here on bloomberg surveillance. Ritika that the first word news, im ritika gupta. Another promising develop and in the fight to end the coronavirus pandemic. A vaccine developed by the university of oxford and astrazeneca prevented a majority of people in a trial from getting the disease. It stopped in average of 70 from getting ill. That is below the high bar set by pfizer and moderna. Joe biden plans to name a longtime advisor Anthony Lincoln as secretary Anthony Blinken as secretary of state. He was deputy secretary of state. A former secretary clinton eight is likely to be named National Security advisor. The trump i adminstration will tech imports from 87 chinese companies, a move that could escalate tensions as the biden adminstration prepares to. Take over. Foxconn will finally stop mass plant willa finally start mass production at a plant championed by President Trump. The facility was unveiled too much fanfare in 2018, but has encountered delays several times after local officials cut subsidies. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Unemployment insurance runs out for many people at the end of the year, before joe biden takes office. The either should moratorium runs out at the end of the year, before the Eviction Moratorium runs out at the end of the year, before joe biden takes office. They have to be fixed under the Trump Presidency with the congressional lineup we have right now. Jonathan ron klain there, president elect bidens chief of staff. Good morning. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Heres the monday morning price action for you. In the equity market, a lift. Small caps outperform. Europe doing nicely. The s p up another 17 bones. We added 0. 5 . In the bond market, yields higher by two or three basis points. Lisa running through some of the treasury supply you can expect through the day and the week. Eurodollar briefly reclaiming a 1. 19 handle. We take out the lows of the year on the dollar index. Theou point out, the bbdxy, more broadly weighted dollar index which tilts away from the euro a little more and more towards the likes of offshore chinese currency, the mexican peso as well, that has hit a multiyear low. The dollar big we are looking for is starting to flush through this market the dollar peak we are looking for is starting to flush through this market. Tom no to the turkish lira goes the other way this day, finally some movement of of the big erdogan shift we saw last week. On the calendar forward of this thanksgiving week, we speak with kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. We saw a 37 page ruling by a federal judge in pennsylvania. There is no question the great desire of this president of drama, i am going to the Supreme Court. Does donald going to the spring court . Kevin right now to the Supreme Court . Kevin right now theres litter more than words spoken. Youve got Rudy Giuliani distancing himself and saying that Sidney Powell is not connected to the president s legal team. There doesnt seem, based upon conversations ive had, to be a coherent legal strategy in terms of getting the results overturned. Meanwhile, republicans coming out one by one and urging the president to start transition briefings. Senator pat toomey, lisa murkowski, and the list goes on. Tom i am going to be very direct here. In wisconsin, it seems like a ballot choice of looking at milwaukee, which is very democratic and very black, and looking at madison, which is very badger and very to the left of elizabeth warren. What is the president thinking going after wisconsin this late in the game . Kevin it is unclear. Tom i agree. Kevin you mentioned wisconsin, and you look at pennsylvania, just across the bridge to new jersey, where Chris Christie has called this a national embarrassment. It is just highprofile republicans who are now urging there to be some type of transition briefings pertaining to National Security and the coronavirus to start taking place. Jonathan a lot of people do. This government is already planning the future cabinet, so lets talk about president elect joe bidens future cabinet. What are you hearing at the moment . Forn tony blinken secretary of state. When i spoke with tony blinken several months ago, i asked him about how he would connect u. S. And china relations. What he told me is that he would try to restore u. S. Multilateralism in the sense of getting western allies on board in europe to be able to speak from the same geopolitical playbook in pressuring china to encourage Good Behavior beyond the state department. If you look beyond the names we are hearing for treasury, Lael Brainard is what i have been hearing over the past few weeks. Lisa tony blinken is a centrist. So far, the people tapped i the biden camp seem to lean center. How much pushback is there from the democratic progressive wing . Kevin based upon the conversations ive had for the past couple of weeks, they are less likely to pressure state department choices than they are for labor secretary or for their issei treasury secretary, or commerce. There is going to be a clear opportunity for progressives to try to make sure that they have some impact not just on those agencies that i listed, but also maybe even energy, and i think that is where the fight is going to play out. But if you look at some of the campaign statements, all of them spoke critically of china. Tony blinken has a history of not just aggressive rhetoric, but really trying to hold china accountable, and forming a broader coalition to do so. Lisa theres a lot of focus on Mitch Mcconnell and his role here. He is one of the republicans who has not come out and said President Trump should just concede, begin the transition. He also is one of the main obstacles to president elect biden getting through any kind of infrastructure plan, or that stopgap measure. Hes one of the big architects of a potential fiscal support bill in the near term. What is his game plan . What is his goal right now . Kevin that right there i think is the key point here because in terms of a centrist check on a biden adminstration, it runs through Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell. In the immediate short term, the december 11 deadline to keep the government funded, to provide some continuing resolution, and honestly, i think if you look beyond the headlines of what you saw secretary mnuchin do in trying to pressure the fed to give back some of their money with some of the lending acilities, i think there is broader conversation happening behind the scenes, based upon that sayave talked to they feel leader mccall leader mcconnell is making sure the money goes to the right places that has already been allocated and passed by congress. Tom there is a scene in the wonderful peter pan movie with Dustin Hoffman where he says bad form. It seems like everybody in the washington zeitgeist is looking for this president in his golf court and saying, bad form. . Hos going to advise this guy kevin i would need some pixie dust to try to predict how the next couple of weeks are going to go. Said, based as ive upon my reporting, i think that President Trump is trying to play the long game and figure out what his longterm strategy is in terms of being a kingmaker for the Republican Party in 2022 and 2024. Jonathan kevin, great to catch up, as always. The prospect of janet yellen going from the fed to the treasury, what do we think about that . Tom good question. I put a little bit of thought into it, and i will say this with great force. In my conversation with her a couple of weeks ago at brookings institution, she was razorsharp. If she wasnt, id say so. She was totally on her game. Jonathan oh i dont think that is in question. Undoubtedly qualified for this role. It is the optics of it, from fed to treasury, handinhand Going Forward, working together. Lisa especially given the rift right now between the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve, there is a question, and this is going to be an increasing one, of the politicization of the Federal Reserve if janet yellen is tapped for the treasury secretary. There is no question she is qualified. But very much to your point, how much does this raise even more of the specter of either a democratic or a republican Federal Reserve chair, and what does that do in terms of their power or lack thereof, moving forward unilaterally or independently . Jonathan everyone keeps saying they need to work closer together, so maybe this is it. Chair of theformer fed. Tom i thing it speaks to the lack of qualified people out there from the business community. Is a banker to be treasury . We dont do that anymore. Jonathan they are hardly scraping the barrel going for janet yellen . Secretarys dimon or think . I think there is a difference in what we perceive a treasury secretary to be versus the old days. Jonathan that i would agree with. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Coming up, with dollar weakness permeating through the fx market this morning, alan ruskin of Deutsche Bank will be joining us. They are up there. They are title contenders, tom. [laughter] that will go in toms column next monday morning. You will find that on Bloomberg Opinion after a weekend of Football Games again in the premier. The things that matter, tom on the permit ship. Ship. Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Jonathan from london and new york, this is bloomberg surveillance. Youve seen this twice before, to make you seen this twice before, then lasts ago, monday, vaccine news. Nasdaq futures up by just 0. 4 . The s p marching on, up by another 0. 6 . The story hasnt changed. Last week was just the story of downside surprises on the data. Retail sales disappointing. Jobless claims disappointing to the upside, the wrong kind of upside surprise on jobless claims. In the bond market, kept a lid on things for you. Last week, yields were up by about seven points on the tenure. Tens at 86 basis points. Want to finish on the fx market, the more compelling story for me over the last several weeks. , eurodollar out to 1. 19, up 0. 4 . 1. 34 handle. Hes a the dxy finally taking out the lows of september. The bbdxy, the bloomberg dollar index, with a little bit of weight away from the euro and towards the peso, towards the offshore renminbi. That is important for the ecb. Eurodollar at 1. 19. Might be unhappy with the currency strengths, but the renminbi might be the key. Tom the perfect intimate to speak to right now in our global wall street brief of the day, alan ruskin with Deutsche Bank, with decades of experience of synthesizing together all of these trends. You lead with the idea that forward, a major payer will be dollarrenminbi, looking for stronger yuan, and the idea that replacenger yuan will the japanese yen. How does that happen . I think the chinese economy is substantially larger than japans, and that gap is only going to get wider over time. Real economy influence is certainly increasing. Obviously at the same time, the areorities in china encouraging the reserve status to increase over time. The pull factor in terms of official flows is going to increase as well. Economy andthe real encouragement we are going to see on the authority basis is just going to help the chinese currency in the pull effect in the region. Tom theres a parlor game to win strong euro hurts germany, strong euro hurts finland, or strong in hurts tokyo a strong yen hurts tokyo. At what level does a strong renminbi hurt beijing . Think we forget, memory serves me right, the 10 year average is roughly around 6. 50 on dollarchina. I think we shouldnt get too caught up with whats happened over the last six months or so, given the appreciation. We are actually back in a zone that is very welltraveled, so we shouldnt be at points of extreme sensitivity. To if we saw dollar china go 6. 25 or those sort of levels, i think there would be more concern on the part of chinese authorities. Jonathan important to look at the Currency Pairs elsewhere. Yen. China, chinajapanese what we have seen is that japanese strength against the euro anymore pronounced way. Do you think that makes the ecb less sensitive to what is happening on eurodollar as we approach 1. 19 and maybe go through 1. 20 . Alan everybody, if they look at their own currencies and say yes, we are stronger against the dollar than most other currencies that are also stronger against the dollar, not much has changed between the euro and other crosses, then you get reduced sensitivity from the currency side and people recognize that this is a dollar story. This is not a china yuan story or a eurodollar story. Up until now it has been a mix of a dollar story and a chinese yuan story, very little in the way of being a euro story. It has been stuck in the mud. Jonathan we typically ask a whether we would need a weaker dollar and whether the world needs a weaker dollar. Do you think the world needs a stronger chinese currency . Imbalances have tended to grow over time. The current account surplus in china is substantial in an less as aasis, percentage of chinese gdp, so i think there are potential distortions on that side. I would say let the market do its thing. Will not build in a substantial way. Just sonestly, i was compelled by this argument that there used to be this world order where everyone was trying to depreciate their currency, and all of a sudden there is less impetus on that because theres a question of getting your money into the economy is better. At one point at what point does strength of the currency matter, given the fact that chinese officials have been willing to step in and that internationally, there has been such a big driver of flows into the nation . Alan i think what is interesting if you look at currencies generally end on a mediumterm basis, the evaluations you are seeing are not that extreme. 5 ofllar is within about fair value, give or take, depending on different metrics. That is not extreme by any measure. The same can be said for most of the other currencies as well. I would say the yuan, euro, yes the dollar looks on the rich side, the euro looks a little cheap, the chinese yuan looks a little on the expensive side as well. But in terms of the actual absolutes, these are not huge over shoots or under shoots. I think for that reason, it is actually going to be relatively comfortable for the authorities to deal with at this point in time. It could get a lot messier than this. , in the 1990s, but these are relatively historic stances for the authorities to do with. Lisa the short position on the dollar is increasing, and you can see the complacency in the markets around this consensus call seems to be growing. Do you see the potential for a short squeeze, or for some information to come out about the vaccine being delayed that could potentially lead to a reversal that could upend a lot of these traits . Alan positioning i think is also quite modest in the grand scheme of things. You highlight the vaccine story, which i think is pertinent. It is going to be critical for the next year or two, crucial for markets, and probably the dominant thing on an ongoing basis. Some think it is already priced in, but i thing that is way too early. I think if you saw a reversal in those trades, you could get some sort of short squeeze. That is always possible into yearend, but i would tend to emphasize that the vaccine trade is long the cyclicals in g10, etc. It is still long em. It plays to the long aided trade. I think it is still on a mediumterm basis playing towards the short dollar trade rather than focusing too much on the squeeze potential. Jonathan classic fx lingo there. Ellen ruskin, Deutsche Bank chief International Strategist alan ruskin, Deutsche Bank chief International Strategist. Now, ifat the situation using about policy areas, youve got to think about where they are going to come from. I think the biggest risk right now for a policy error comes from the fiscal side. We are about to see one of the biggest super spreader events of 2020 is the great thanksgiving migration over the coming week. The numbers that come out the other side of that to some degree will dictate what the policies look like going into yearend as we start to roll out this vaccine. If you start to see people locked down again across the united states, governors, mayors, and you dont see those incomes, do you think that is the button that gets pushed that finally gets people to wake up and think, you know what, i am pretty worried about what could happen in the near term . Tom theres a number of threads here that are really important, but just to pull out the zeitgeist over the weekend, this is a biden adminstration not planning for recession, but they are really thinking about if they get a q1 slowdown that rolls into q2, and theres not a gloom there, but just an awareness about things slowing down quickly. That is what i would watch more than anything, that tension between pelosi, biden, and as they look over georgia, perhaps in senator mcconnell of kentucky. Jonathan we are seeing that in the data. Retail sales claims are sent to get worse from here. Atng into q1, mr. Feroli j. P. Morgan is looking for that weakness to kick off 2021. Lisa there seems to be this belief that there will be a temporary decline, and it could be a steeper decline, but once we get the vaccine, everything will be fine. Again, it goes to the scarring question. Especially if you dont get Financial Aid from the federal government to states, you start to see those layoffs, how much does that change peoples appetite to buy . There have been some reports about retail sales Going Forward into the holiday season, about the expectation it could be a lot softer than people expect, and how that could be a catalyst. Jonathan another word i keep hearing, normal. We get back to normal. You have any idea what normal looks like after we have rolled out a vaccine . Does it look like things precovid, or are we bringing the future forward 5, 10 years . On, andhael spence was he made clear a definition of premore more of prenormal just isnt there. We are not going to get back to that normal. It is a raging debate. Jonathan we got to talk about this vaccine as well from astrazeneca oxford. The vaccine found to be highly effective in tackling covid19. More positive news with a huge cyclical tilt in this equity market. Up next on this program, dr. Deborah fuller, university of Washington School of medicine. Heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. Another vaccine has shown promise against the coronavirus. The shot developed by the university of oxford and astrazeneca prevented an average of 70 of participants from falling ill. That is less than the vaccines from pfizer and moderna. However, effectiveness rose to 90 for one of two dosing racing one of two dosing regimes. A formal National Security advisor to joe biden is expect it to be named secretary of state. The announcement about Anthony Blinken is likely tomorrow. He served as deputy secretary of state during the obama administration. Plus, former Hillary Clinton aid Jake Sullivan is likely to be named bidens National Security advisor. Hasident Trumps Campaign disavowed a number of its postelection legal team. Sidney powell has pushed some of the more extreme conspiracy theories around the boat. A statement from the Campaign Says they are not a member of the illegal team, even though President Trump said that she was. Secretary of state mike pompeo says the u. S. Has withdrawn from the open skies agreement because russia isnt compliant. The treaty allows countries to flights over each others territory. Democratic senator bob menendez called the move reckless. Heed the incoming urged the incoming biden adminstration to reverse the decision. All of the destinations require testing. Passengers will have the option test thatmailin meets local requirements. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. We are in a very difficult situation at all levels, so i think, i would hope that the people who are pushing back on the recommendations, the mitigation measures, just look at the numbers. Look at the facts. They are staring us right in the face. We are not talking about shutting down the country and looking down completely. Onathan dr. Fauci there, cbs over the weekend. The numbers are not looking good going into the thanksgiving holiday. From london and new york this morning, good morning. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Radio, bloomberg tv and here is the price action this monday morning. You have seen this monday after monday. More positive vaccine news is what we want to wake up to two kick off a new trading week. 1. 19. Llar reclaiming some euro strength, really about dollar weakness. Eurodollar up and up, by 0. 4 . In the fx market, that is your story. In the equity market, up 23 on the s p 500. We advanced 0. 6 and add a little bit more weight to the cyclical story. The small caps outperform big tech and the nasdaq this morning. In the treasury market we have a lift in treasury yields by about three basis points to 0. 8586 , about 11 basis points off the highs we hit two wednesdays ago on the 10 year maturity. Om all of Team Surveillance say punditry is out and experts are in. After deborah fuller is not just of the Washington University school of microbiology, but is also active in the development of vaccines, and we are honored that dr. Fuller could nest this morning. We have questions about vaccines and all of that. I want to go to my childhood, which was the dreaded booster shot. Is a booster shot now the same as it was in 1960, or is a booster shot now so efficacious and the technology so much better that it is not a big deal . Dr. Fuller a booster shot in vaccines, particularly the covid19 vaccines we are seeing right now, is absolutely essential to increase and bring the immunity to individuals that get the vaccine up to high enough levels to protect against the infection. Booster shots can be a drag in the sense that you might ,xperience increased reactive and other words a bit more soreness in your arm, but that tells you it is working, when you get that feeling almost like you are getting an infection initially. That tells you that your immune system is mounting a really good response to the vaccine, and you will likely be protected against infection. Lisa tom keene is talking about booster shots in light of the astrazeneca news that came out this morning, more confusing than what we got out of pfizer and moderna in terms of efficacy. ,ome statistics saying 70 something 90 , when you have an initial dose followed by a second dose. How significant is the rollout effort when you have to have two shots to make it effective, in terms of tracking, distribution, and how long it takes to get immunity . Dr. Fuller that is a really important question. If people have to receive a second dose, often compliance in coming back for the second dose can go down, especially if they experienced reaction with the first dove. Are of these Companies Looking at immunity after the first dose, the levels are just not high enough to be confident is going to provide the level of efficacy that is needed. On the other hand, after the efficacyse, 90 plus is as good as a vaccine is really going to get, and that is what we are going to need ultimately to shut down this pandemic. Jonathan lets talk about the logistics. How many vaccines, vaccinations do you think we could rollout in america over the next three months . Pfizer,er moderna and as a result of their promising , willnow astrazeneca likely be assigned early use authorization in early december. They should have enough safety data by then to be able to make the application. That of course will only initially be available in a limited number, for high risk groups, for your First Responders and medical personnel. The majority of us really wont see these vaccines until spring, and some of the challenges between then and now will be producing the efficient number of doses, billions of billions. Thestimate 50 to 60 of population will ultimately need to be vaccinated to shut down the pandemic. We really need multiple vaccines, not just one. It is not one Silver Bullet to shut this down. The fact that we are still looking at all of the faxing all of these vaccines at 90 equity is really promising. Tom 802 chart is out on herd immunity a Deutsche Bank chart is out on herd immunity. Do you trust the mass and the forecasting of herd immunity, or are we making it up as we go . Dr. Fuller that math is really elegant stuff, and it is really based on some important measurements. So we can trust the math. What we dont know, some of the things we dont know going into this, are the changes in the infection rates that could occur between now and then. Predictions are based on what we know now, and as we have seen, we have seen a huge surge in cases as the weather cools, and exceeded the number of cases that was initially projected at this time for reasons like, for example, been a bit for example, and mike fatigue for example, pandemic fatigue, that we dont know. Jonathan thank you. Base case, these are the numbers people throw around, their educated guesses. We need to get the population, 70 of the population vaccinated, and the bulk arent going to the vaccinations until when, march, going into q2 . Those of the kind of numbers we are playing with right now. Obviously those can move. They are just the numbers we are playing a with at the moment. Tom i go to the verlyns to irulency of the actual virus. Amateurs underplay that. I will lean on the pros on this vaccine. Jonathan for the professionals in our world, market participants, i think the big question is how much can you deemphasize the shortterm risk. Jonathan golub of Credit Suisse was talking about this with us last week. How much can you do this if this could go on through q1 into q2 before that faxing rollout really starts to make an impact on the kind of restrictions you can have in this economy, or rather the restrictions he wont need . Tom we are stuck out towards the end of the bridge, that cliche we knew in march, april, and may of this year. How far is that bridge out . E have no clue jonathan coming up, david rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at rosenberg. Looking forward to that. This is bloomberg. The nightmare scenario would be if the Unemployment Rate begins to go higher. Equity volatility and uncertainty remains elevated. In the very shortterm term, we are very much due for a rough time. If we take a longterm perspective, we have a pretty supportive market. We are going to have a big year, 6 growth. The fed has been quite clear they expect the federal government to hopefully provide more income support. They really Want Congress to do with job, and that is not happening to do its job, and that is not happening. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz