Caroline when it comes to markets, longterm optimism is winning out over shortterm fear. The seven day average in new covid cases, the u. S. Is claiming in every state. California governor kevin newsom says he is pulling the emergency brake. The dow at a record high, closing just shy of 30,000. S p 500 index at a record high. Rotation caps, we have into value and cyclical sectors. Right here, right now, companies are facing the covid reality. Luckily, the race is on free vaccine. Joe last monday it was pfizer. This monday, moderna expected. In itsefficacy preliminary analysis. They are also touting the ease of the logistics. Refrigerated temperature for 30 days. Vaccine has to be very cold. Shares rising more than 9 today. The good news is that light at the end of the tunnel continues to pile up. It means we have certain stocks on a complete tear. Carnival cruise. The reopening trade is back on. Airlines, boeing outperforming. Pfizer on the downside. Trade,yathome something that has done so well i made lockdown environment. The question is at what point we see technology be a growth story again, not just a haven . Us, cross asset reporter sarah ponczek. These Growth Stocks enjoyed really two tailwinds. Tech, people of that. Peopleo this haven, that may be benefiting from the virus or were unheard by them. Some of these look kind of ugly. Zoom, netflix of appellate on down a bit from netflix, balaton down a bit from their highs. Sarah you are not thinking of the bank stocks like apple, facebook, microsoft, when you are thinking purely about zoom about peloton. Companies that have really taken off in the wake of covid19. That is where you see the most subtraction over the last week or so. You also have to take into account the fact that some of these stocks are still up phenomenally well this year. Even when you get a bit of a pullback, you still see tremendous growth. Goodwin thisn recently, and the way that she sees this rotation taking place, she says that they do believe in it but they believe it is more a tactical move to favor values, small caps, the reopening trade. She said, longterm, it is not as if we are going to see a huge secular shift where we see these Tech Companies generate huge amounts of cash flow. So where we might see a catchup and more, better, stronger performance in areas of the market that have lagged behind. Energy up after what was already a 16 last week. Catchup have so much room to do. That does not necessarily mean you will see the big tech trade. Company, poscoer , one of the big box retailers. It is declaring a special dividend, 10 per share. They are paying up to about 4. 4 billion. Rewarding shareholders at this time because they have the cash to be able to do so. Some breaking news with investors being rewarded not only in terms of shareprice rewards but also in terms of dividends. Rotation trade, yes, we talk about it showing significantly in equities. But today it was not that prevalent in the cyclical market. Sarah last week, when we got that pfizer news, we saw benchmark treasury move. We saw that being tested throughout the week. Today, you look at the bond market, benchmark yields hardly even budged. That does make you question the efficacy and resiliency of the staying power. Not seeing the risk on tone in the bond market. Might move to 1. 2 , 1. 3 . Still, not so much belief that we will see too much room for higher yields, especially because you still have the fed very much in play. Also being floated here, the idea that we do see rising covid19 cases. We are likely to face more economic restrictions going forward. How far past this can you look, especially when you know that this is unbelievable news on the vaccine front, but we still dont have a date when we know that the economy can fully normalize. Rotation, dock to people believe in it . Friday was good, today was obviously good for it. I think as you pointed out, the last few months have not been that bad for the value overgrowth trade. Do people think this could have more legs . Taylor a lot of investors we speak with truly believe that this could be the time that we see that shift because we have finally gotten a change, and that is the positive vaccine news. The pace of the rotation has really been in play since september when we saw that large nasdaq selloff. Quiet,we have seen this quiet rotation. Now that we got the vaccine news, we got this spark that triggered shortterm rotation. He went to hedge for good news on the chance that we would get this positive news and you would see a sharp rotation as we saw last week and today, frankly. Caroline more coverage of course on the vaccine. On bloomberg technology, an interview with the moderna cofounder. That is at 5 00 p. M. New york time. Coming up, we break down the market with asset strategist. This is bloomberg. Caroline today, we are focused on how longterm optimism is winning out over shortterm fear. Investors pinning their hopes on a positive vaccine move today. When you look at particularly arestors, the everyday joes beating the pros, eh . Joe it is not surprising. The pros sit here, covid concerns, gridlock, and stuff. Retail investors, lets by retail stocks, vaccine stocks. They have done extremely well. They are all outperforming the s p. Pretty extraordinary year overall. Caroline what a line. What a chart. Joe it is easy. Insight,s with more alpha partners macro strategist. Thank you for joining us. It has been easy, you just go along and ignore all the surging virus numbers, political instability, gridlock, all kinds of things. Is it just never going to matter because we will get a vaccine and life will return to normal oneday . You see is the big risk . I think there are a couple of dichotomies at play. One is the path versus destination. I think that dovetails into another one, i call it the vix versus the vax. The fact that we got a huge vol crush after the election at the same time as getting the vaccine, a very potent cocktail to make the destination matter more than the path right now. The systematic flows from space makeshe vol it very difficult for us to focus on anything but the destination. I think it kind of remains there. We have the vix expiration coming up this week. There might be like a 12 week window to see, can we get anything deeper than these shallow little dips . Still, i dont think that the market will worry too much about the past until we are closer to january. Joe two events that people were anxious about. One known time event of the election. The other, would we get good news on the vaccine. That was just two sources of anxiety that disappeared. Price insensitive flows, which is why often times you see europe kind of getting ahead of these flows. To dojust nothing really about what we feel in the market or what we feel about macro drivers. In the absence of different news, these dynamics will continue to materialize. This is why the nikkei has been one of our favorite players for a while. A leverage to global trade, a multi year breakout on the back of this. I am not sure we are at a point yet where things are truly stretched and ready to slingshot back. Caroline i am curious as to your viewpoint on how much International Focus will happen. We had a call from citigroup saying that it will fall next year because of the vaccine coming out. Is it time look for International Opportunities . Naufal we have been pretty involved in the International Part of the market since about september and we remained relatively constructive there. Another dichotomy that i think is pertinent here is, what is the difference between a vaccine reflation versus a kind of fiscal reflation. I think the point is, lets. Hink about it covidility to exit the regime, headwinds because of the virus risk, it brings us back to this regime. I am not sure the vaccine itself is super inflationary. I think one of the biggest shifts during covid, for years and years, the only game in town to collect yields and growth on an accelerating basis was the United States in a large economy. Now, that is china. The pboc has kind of gone out of the way to maintain a rates premium for the rest of the world. Is bearishrket, it dollar. On thein bearish dollar rest of the world. Caroline airbnb is going to be one that potentially investors can get into. It has filed for its ipo. It is seeking to list on the nasdaq. We have seen revenue numbers coming out, 4. 8 billion, up versus 2019 numbers. Their bankers to include goldman sachs, morgan stanley. Joe we are back with our guest. I want to dive more into this question of what a vaccine reflation looks like. Airbnb filing for its ipo. We have seen tech and these Growth Stocks really come off the boil over the last couple of months. Of vaccinehe sort reflation, does this mean that at some point we go back to precrisis trend growth, at which point the low growth tech rally resumes again as people pile in pile in for their secular characteristics. Naufal a 50 50 split with harris being the tiebreak, even in that say ariel in that scenario you have centrist store conservative democrats have any kind of swing vote. Platform heeconomic released today was constructive in terms of what we can do on the fiscal front. Limitation, it can be difficult. 2016, everyone kind of had their hopes on a huge, durable, cyclical rotation. I think this will persist just like it did on the backs of the election in 2016. But unless it is reflected in a regime shift, then most likely in the long end of the bond market, it will probably have to back to the status quo. Is if wed change that saw the cat is already out of the bag in terms of fiscal policy. Even what we saw today in terms of what senator romney was discussing in terms of childcare assistance, those types of things becoming more normalized but that is a very different environment for example in terms of coming out of the obama inauguration. These will be more relevant year as opposed to right now. Naufal thanks to sanaullah. Thanks for coming on. This is bloomberg. Caroline airbnb filing for its ipo. We get some details about sort of its Financial Health as it stands. It looks as though it is weathering the storm relatively well. Was 2. 5 billion. Yes, it is down by one third. Of course, people are now holidaying in the United States. The odd cooking lesson with people in thailand, for example. Adapted. Joe this is a big one that we have been waiting for. Six months ago, we thought this was hitting them at the right time. They may turn out to be a potential winner. Reporter natalie wong, just talking about airbnb and their business coming back to life in a strong way. Also a day for people betting on cities. Ets having a boom on the back of this vaccine news. With the potential vaccine coming earlier next year, have people been too quick to say everything is going to be different . Is there a possibility that living and real estate conditions precrisis may come back . It is certainly welcome news for the real estate communities in big cities such as San Francisco or new york city for example. This is something that a lot of investors and landlords have been saying for months, that this is a shortterm crisis and by next year, things will be normal again and all of the chatter around the future of work changing offices forever and demand for retail forever is overblown. This is certainly big sliver of positive news for many of these big firms. We have seen stocks rebound today. All new york city exposed stocks have rebounded today. We have also seen a surge in a lot of the mall stocks. Caroline you referenced sl green. They are putting their money even more where their mouth is. Billion getting a 1. 25 loan for a manhattan skyscraper. 2023. L not be ready until but, when you speak to people about the way that cities are evolving are they thinking that 2020 is a blip and this work from home vibe will not be sticky . A lot of people think that. Theirndlords, a lot of tenants and companies that have long leases. Have been extremely bullish on retail. Of course, they have to be, given what they own in the city. They had a grand opening of one vanderbilt, a really tall skyscraper, in september. Now they have secured a 125 loan to kickoff another skyscraper in the Flatiron District in manhattan. Theink this would be one of first commercial construction starts in the city since march. Joe when it comes to commercial retail in some of the worst hit businesses, how much ambiguity is there still about what it looks like on the other side and how much does that contribute to lack of price discovery . Natalie there is a lot of ambiguity. No one really knows, even the landlords, no one really knows how long this pandemic will last for. The longer it goes on, the longer many businesses and real estate owners will be in the longterm. Right now, we are seeing that a lot of these arrangements landlordstailers and have been sort of kicked down. People are sort of waiting before they have to foreclose on properties, before they have to kick their tenants out or reduce the price of rent in the longterm, to see of things will maybe rebound four. But the reality is that no one really does how long this will last. Caroline wonderful to speak with you. That is all for whatd you miss . Emily abigail