Concede and what this means for trade deals with china as well. Don i read about the trade deal. It is on the back burner for americans because both candidates, both parties are reticent to sign those deals. We can touch on that, but front and center in the nation is the stepbystep, the back, tweet by tweet with the president , but er than that is the pandemic. It was the oddest of weekends. Francine it was a busy weekend, and here in the u. K. With news that Boris Johnson, who contracted the virus in march, even went to icu, now having to selfisolate after coming into contact with someone who tested positive. We will have plenty more on that , and the consequences for brexit. First lets get to bloomberg renews with ritika gupta. President elect joe bidens top coronavirus advisers say a National Lockdown is not on the agenda. One of them, the former surgeon general, who says the approach to fighting it is a dial that we turned up and down, depending on the severity. U. S. Case records of hit records over the past two weeks. Boris johnsons attempt to get his premiership back on track has struggled. He is being forced to selfisolate after meeting a lawmaker who tested positive for the virus. He hopes to regain control of the National Agenda following a turf war on down a street. Big history while wordings is first that while winning his first masters tournament, winning by five shots. It was the largest margin of victory at the masters in 23 years. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im ritikauntries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Tom what we have going on right now is equities higher. Futures up 31, dow futures explode come up to hundred 95, but just right up against 29,705. You wonder as the vix opens if handle. Get a 22 handed a 2200 handle. Is thea dxy, the dxy trading partner index. Asia dxy is the pacific rim, minus japan. Strength onrecent pacific rim currencies. Francine . Francine this is probably also on the deals that they signed with asian economies. European stocks falling, asian shares falling, u. S. Futures higher buoyed by the trade, also signs of an opposition with the american lockdown. The dollar falling, and then the only thing im looking at as well is oil pushing higher, treasuries edging up. President trump has pulled back from a tacit concession to joe biden. On twitter yesterday, the president road the president wrote that he won only in the eyes of the fake news media. Ron klain, president elect beau bidens chief of staff told meet the press that a concession from President Trump is immaterial. Feednald trumps twitter doesnt make joe biden president or not president. The American People did that. But we will see this week is the General Service administration doing that, so that we can meet get Intelligence Briefings for the Vice President elect. Francine joining us is the political thank you so much for joining us. Frankly, it is just bizarre. It is difficult to know who is right. The whole thing is just it is like a bad plot out of the brated movie. How does this end, and what happens this week . All eyes remain on trump will he can see, how he will concede. I up appreciate i appreciate ron klains statement, and it is important to separate out the question of who will be 2021. Ent on january 20, barring some unforeseen event, that would be joe biden. That question of who will be president next year with the question of how is the current president behaving during this very important period . If it were any other important country in the world, we would be concerned about the political system, the health of that political system, and its trajectory. Francine give me a sense of what exactly you think joe biden needs to do now. Is he getting a very is he getting the very important briefings that usually the president elect has during the transition period . Says he is not conceding. There was this moment on twitter where he says that biden won because of the election being fraudulent, but now he has backtracked. Whereby the stance is still pretty much he is taking important steps, he has named his Transition Team across various sectors. Named ron klain to be his chief of staff come he is named his advisory board. He is calling for an advisors and putting that dialogue open, which he did not have that during the campaign. He was very clear about not having a foreign dialogue open during the campaign. He is doing everything he needs to do at this stage to conduct a transition, but the transition is not happening because from the trump side, it is not being received. Biden is not getting the daily Intelligence Briefings, and we are seeing that even trumps up a former advisors like chief of staff, former chief of staff john kelly, former National Security advisor bolton are concerned, saying this is now a National Security issue. There is the potential concerns but alsoelligence, around coronavirus. They are not able to get that information as they do their planning, as they get ready for january 20, 2021. Tom the clock ticks forward, and i understand that this week is different than last week and we are into a holiday season. We have thanksgiving next week in america, then we go into september into december with the third or fourth week, christmas as well. Where is the judiciary . In your study of this, is this executive like it is a exec have legislative issue, or does the judiciary participate . Lindsay trump has thus far been using the court system, has been previous lawsuits, which by and large have been tossed out. The key point here, and when we ink about we remain not bush v gore territory. With bush v gore, that related to a recount where the margin of florida was 530 seven votes. So the Court Decision in that case could have been decisive. It could have been a game changer. Everything we have seen thus far in terms of evidence, which there is very little concrete tom i dont mean to interrupt, but i think this is important. Does the judiciary play a voice or a part in the transition issue . We dont know, do we . Lindsay the process is very much ticking forward. Right now at the state level, the states are certifying these votes, and then there is the opportunity for trump to bring objections, in which case the judicial level that the state level could be brought in, it could take its way to the supreme court, but nothing that we have seen so far suggests a judicial decision would be decisive, would be a game changer in this instance. So in december, we have the electoral on december 14, the electoral voters will vote. We have this idea of the faceless elector. 60 really, biden has electoral has 360 Electoral College votes, and more than 506 million in the popular vote. A situation where the judiciary will intervene and have a decisive decision one way or the other. Thecine how are republicans dealing . How is the rest of the party going to deal with President Trump . Lindsay it is a great question because so far we have seen, there has been some sort of concession given by some republicans, but by much by and large most republicans are staying quiet, and that there are those who are actively rallying in support of President Trump. The election was a missed message was a mixed message because the republicans did very well. But with the question of trump himself, many decided to go for biden. The question is, where does the Republican Party for here . What does it mean for socalled trumpism . If there was not a mandate for trump but there was a mandate perhaps for or certainly a positive swing for the Republican Party . It is going to be very difficult for them to figure out with the next steps are with trump no longer in that allimportant office. Although i for one do not think he is going away. I fully expect him to continue to throw out these ideas around a media empire and to continue to throw out these ideas about running for reelection in 2024. Much,ne thank you so lindsay newman, independent senior political analyst and former Chatham HouseSenior Research fellow of the americas program. We will also look at bonds across the old world with nicola mai. That is coming up shortly, this is bloomberg. Tom bloomberg surveillance, good morning, everybody. Thanksgiving two weeks away. Imagine thanksgiving at Francine Lacquas house . Thats very exciting. Im sure she would kill it. Right now, nicola mai with us from pimco. We are going to broaden out the discussion here on yield and what it does to global yield. That is an asian recovery. China doing better, and clearly identified by stronger pacific rim currencies and adxy out to a record, recent record strength. About recentmean strength to global yield . There is no doubt nicola there is no doubt that china has been outperforming. China is doing better than others. China produces a lot of sanitary goods, ppe equipment, and electronic goods. Performers is good for china. I think globally china is not going to be able to lift the Global Economy out of the current slump. I think europe is in lockdown, which means that there is a doubledip recession. The u. S. Is likely to introduce more restrictive measures statebystate as we get into the winter. Obviously the vaccine improves the outlook from the spring, but i think this is going to be a stop and go winter, and i think yields are going to remain very much anchored in this environment. Tom we are going to begin our new Economy Forum with mr. Gutierrez of oecd. They are looking at a blended global slowdown, but if indicated showing dampened aggregate demand. Pimco has nailed that. Is it worse now than what you have expected . Nicola i would say the covid crisis has accentuated reasons why there has been a shortfall of demand relative to supply. What you see is an increasing caution, an increasing precaution what you are seeing is an increase in unemployment. So i think all of that is probably cementing the view that Interest Rates are going to be anchored at a very low level. So i think we should expect real yield in policy rate space for a very long time ahead. Tom two young lads email in from somewhere in the vicinity of london, and they say tom, you are a dummy. Mr. Gutierrez, oecd, and the two young lads say he is so dumb. Of course, with the united nations. Francine . It happens. Where do you see the most value against bonds right now . If you look at european bonds, the ecp is doing so much. Is there a danger that they prematurely take away some of what they were doing because we will see inflation quicker than expected if we get a vaccine by 2021 . Inflationdont see coming back anytime soon. Over the medium term, it is possible the strong fiscal and monetary report and normalization of the economy leads to some inflationary pressure, but i think the shortfall of demand relative to supply is too big. I think the ecb is going to be very accommodative for far too long. Of asset 600 billion purchases announced in december. In that context, i think the ecb spreads are pretty attractive, even at 120 over bunds or so. There are not that many assets that give you returns for what i see are a limited amount of risk. I think the ecb is engaging and what you could call a loose yield curve control and spread curve control. I see rates as anchored there. Francine what happens to the economy . If we get a vaccine, how quickly can we get back to normal . Nicola we are facing our numbers as we speak. Vaccine is going to make the recovery better and steeper, but i think normalization will take time. First of all, are questions about how quickly the vaccine is going to be implemented, distribute it. What the takeup is going to be across the population. And i think the normalization will be there, but in our minds, we dont see activity going back 2022 or soels until in europe. We are talking about a very long time away. In that environment, it is hard to see inflationary pressures building in any significant way, which is why i think bund yields are going to remain very low, and the ptp spreads are probably going to be a decent asset to investing. Tom we will take italy as an example, then. What does it do, translated out of your world, nicola, over to equities . Equities continue to rise. Futures up, up, up. How does your fixedincome space translate over to equity valuations . Nicola if you look at equity valuations, but even generic credit spreads, they look fairly stretched. When it comes to Interest Rates, are goingates, they to be directly anchored by the central bank actions. When it comes to equities and generic credit spreads come i think there will obviously be an impact on the fundamentals and on the Economic Growth outlook. At the moment, when we look at these spreads or equity valuations, we dont see a lot of value a lot of volume. Interest rates are supporting higher valuations and if you didnt have them, but we think you have to be pretty selective and cautious when it comes to risk, so we focus on sector and names that we believe in. Among these, u. S. Mortgages, banks across the globe, but also in sectors that are severely disrupted, like airline, hospitality, there will be names that we like to invest in in the bond space. Tom nicola mai, thank you so much, with pimco. This yearonomy forum is different. It is virtual, and that has made it ever so more accessible. One of the panels is extraordinary. The chinese Vice President , the u. N. Secretary general, and with them, the king of jordan. The untimely discussion with King Abdullah on the middle east, and middle east at mr. Trump would like to leave. This good morning. Good morning. Is bloomberg. This is bloomberg. Good morning. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. Pnc has agreed to 11. 6 billion deal that will make it the Largest Regional Bank in the u. S. Bbvasder is buying American Banking operations. The u. S. Business is focused on mobile banking, but the value took a hit from the coronavirus pandemic. Italian payments president to buy rivals agreed to mets. I reach extend next across europe. Is retreating from its two decade attempt to crack japans retail market, selling most of its japanese retailer say you to kkr, valuing the company and 1. 6 billion. Buyers will try to shore up say you futures up 31. Thats what you need to know. Dow futures up to 81. We dont have the pricing yet on the vix. Too early in the morning. Fractionallyme in as well. On oil, great stability. 41 rest west texas. 43. 52, brent crude online. Not a very big round of. Rally, six dollars. Francine, what do you see . It isne i am seeing really all about asia because of the trade deal that they signed yesterday, some dollar weakness, but nothing huge again. I think that the markets are trying to look through some of the sentiment. Trying to focus on positive news on trade, and they like the fact that there was opposition to a National American lockdown, the dollar falling a bit. Coming up next, we will talk about a possible recession with the former bank of england governor. This is bloomberg. Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Its to stop theion economic fallout to covid19. For a full recovery, trillions more will need to be spent. Passed tothe senate bring 2 trillion stimulus bill, but nothing for green interests. Ambitiouspublished infrastructure goals, but also has rollback regulations on coal plants. Green measuresd, account for less than 1 of the total coronavirus related stimulus spending. Contrast, 7 is specifically toward oil and gas. What are the implications for the future . Economic crisis, Carbon Dioxide emissions dropped 1. 4 in 2009 before rising 5. 1 the following year when the economy started to bounce back. Formost Efficient Solutions rebuilding the covid ravaged economy are those that also reduce Carbon Emissions. An oxford Economic Policy study published in may of bankers and economists cited policy as the major client of climate preparedness,ter and a zero carbon transportation is the preferred publicsector response. The study asserted that unless policymakers keep Carbon Emissions top of mind, the world risks leaping from the covid frying pan into the climate fire. Tom good morning everyone. The new Economy Forum this week. Now, most important to get one of our panelists on central banking, mervyn king joins us, former of the bank of england. Kingeed to know is mervyn and Lawrence Summers may not agree on economics. But, it is important to note that the former secretary of the treasury says shut up and read mervyn king, in a raving review of lord kings the end of alchemy. At the end of your book, you speak of our prisoners dilemma. Is our prisoners dilemma for 2020 when . Is connected with covid19, but more importantly preventing the next pandemic. Thatslightly worried politicians are encouraging us to think that there is light at the end of the tunnel and we will be back to normal. We dont want to go back to where we were, we need to prepare for the next pandemic. I think that means international cooperation. Particularly in the field of International Air travel, we need to get to a point where we can be confident that if one country experiences the outbreak of a virus, immediately they will seal their borders to prevent it escaping to the rest of the world. Countinge will all end down on their trouble quickly. Bankers now are constrained by this and that, but one constraint going back 14 years is the inability to retire debt, the inability to retire failed businesses. Not only zombie companies, but zombie capitalism. When do we finally clear our markets . Challenge over the next three years is going to be precisely that. To recognize that there are zombie companies, and probably therefore zombie banks. We need to recognize the true value of those assets and recapitalize institutions. That is going to be a big challenge for the next three years. Else, what covid19 has done is force us to face up to that in a way we have failed to do for the last 14 years. Francine good morning, when you look at the hopes on a biden presidency, are we putting too much hope on going back to multilateralism, going back to countries working together to try and find a solution to the next pandemic . I think that is a big question. That the new cold war between the u. S. And china will not be affected much by a change in u. S. Administration. It is a fact of the world that is not going to alter. How we cope with it is a big question. I have no doubt that the relationship between the European Union and the united warmer one be a much with the biden administration, much more cooperation. The question is, what will that cooperation be used for . No doubt there will be no no doubt there will be more noises about climate change. In terms of handling china and many other problems around the world, the big debt problems we face them a it is an open question as to whether this will actually produce something positive or simply end up with more attractive press briefings and statements by politicians that in the end add up to little. Francine we keep talking about the tradeoff between saving lives or saving the economy. , china, Asian Countries not talk about that . They seemed to have handled the virus in a stronger way than us. It is an open question as to whether it makes sense to think in terms of the tradeoff. One of the surprising features of the last few weeks has been that those countries that suffered most in the spring from covid19 seem also to be the countries that are suffering from what is now the second wave. I think the postmortem would look very carefully at the willingness of countries in Southeast Asia very tough , very effective test and Trace Program. Whichas the aspect western companies were less equipped and prepared for when the pandemic broke out. The countries that on paper appear to be the best prepared for a pandemic turnout not to be best prepared because they could effective quickly an test and Trace Program and did not close their borders fast enough. Reached a level in which the test and Trace Program was ineffective. Tom there is a bit of news flow out of the united kingdom. About the ideaou that central bankers are hamstrung at zero bound because of commercial bankers because commercial bankers cannot exist in a negative rate environment. Constraint onr the continent of europe negative workest rates simply dont for commercial banking in society . Negative Interest Rates cant bankingh a successful sector unless the banks can pass off negative rates to their customers. Once that happens, i think you should expect to see a long line of customers seeking to take their cash out of the bank and keep it under the mattress or in a home safe. I do not think that is a politically attractive prospect at all. Think that Monetary Policy is the answer to any to every sign of weakness in the economy . I cant think of any justification that would say whatever the source of the weakness, more expansionary Monetary Policy must be the answer. Somebody coming from outside to look at where the World Economy is today would say look, you have the most expansionary Monetary Policy the world has ever seen come and get growth is still very slow. It was slow before covid19 came along. That would suggest that the problem is not a lack of stimulation for Monetary Policy. We need to look elsewhere. It is other policy issues and thecy tools, in particular, need to reallocate resources from one part of an economy to another. That is not something policy alone can do. King, the end of alchemy. We will continue. Here is ritika gupta. Ritika President Trump has pulled back from the concession. On twitter, the president wrote he won because the election was rigged. Later, the president tweeted, he the fakein the eyes of news media. The Trump Administration is rushing to install environmental regulations that could agenda. Te joe bidens authorities could advance plans to sell drilling rights in the Arctic National wildlife refuge. The Administration May also move to lock in existing limits on air pollution and make it tougher to impose new environmental safeguards. It wont backling down as brexit talks and another crucial week. Officials from both sides said it would be pivotal to reach a trade deal. Through the most senior officials from the Brexit Campaign left Boris Johnsons inner circle. The chief negotiator says he will not be changing his position. It is a milestone trip for spacex. Aboard oneauts are of the capsules on spacexs First Manned Mission to the space station. It is scheduled to arrive tonight. Spacex and boeing have won contracts from an asset of flight crews to the space station. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. Francine thanks so much. Joining us for the rest of the day, plenty of wonderful guests from across the world. We have a great panel on the future of wall street with stephen schwarzman. Chair tive schwartz we will talk about wall street versus main street and how to rebuild a stronger economy. That starts at 8 30 new york. You can watch it live on bloomberg. Com, the terminal, twitter and facebook. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. We are having a conversation with lord mervyn king. You are saying it shouldnt be voluntary you were saying it shouldnt be Monetary Policy that takes the brunt of everything, but we have seen fiscal policy, furloughs come through because of the pandemic. Do you think these were not enough, or do they need to be in tandem, or do politicians look at 2008 and say banks will deal with that . It is going to be a terrible mistake for governments to leave it to banks. I do not like to use the word recession because this is not recession at all, this is a downturn. Resulting from government shutdowns of the economy or individuals too frightened. [no audio] francine we are having a couple of technical difficulties. You. , we briefly lost some of these technologies we are using. I think we can hear you again. Lord king i hope so. I was saying that the main the role of government is to support businesses. Because of the short downs for economy for good health reasons, the market economy has been put into a state of temporary suspension. We cant judge which businesses will have a future and which will not. For that reason, governments need to support businesses at present to keep them afloat until we can relax restrictions. Perhaps with a vaccine, starting to get back to a normal situation. And we can then let the economy decide which businesses will prosper and which will fail. This is not the moment to let businesses fail. The main policy initiative that is needed is Government Support for business. How do you look at debt creation . Do be split to the debt afterwards . Should investors not worry . Lord king in the major industrialized countries, we should not worry too much the Additional Data being created. It is obviously not desirable, but did we ask to be in this situation . There are two reasons why the major countries can get through this without too many concerns about debt. One is that before covid19, interestet deficits payments exceeding Interest Payments were not far from zero. They were in reasonable shape. The second is the government can borrow long at extremely low , typicallytes negative. You put those two things together and even if the ratio of National Debt to national were to jump significantly to well over 100 , unless governments decide to introduce new spending programs, they are really returning to where we were would enable the National Debt ratio slowly but steadily to decline. That is the policy path we want to be on. Panicky all of these panicky stories about massive tax rises, spending cuts, or austerity in order to repay the debt created by covid19 is a mistake. Having said that, i think there are problems for many other countries in the world that were not in the same fortunate position as the major countries. I think businesses have taken on a lot more debt. As i said to tom, the story of the next few years is going to be a story of debt restructuring. I juste more question think is so important. May behen you read ben bernanke through it at you when you shared an office at m. I. T. 1936 we talked about nominal rigidities. Of of the great assumptions this slowdown is that wages will somehow be sticky. Are we in for it . Are we going to be shocked by a lack of real wage growth or even a decline in nominal wages . Lord king i am not a great fan of wage stickiness. Tom we knew that. [laughter] lord king where there is employment maintain by asking people to accept lower wages, that often happens. Therefore, it does not happen quickly, but i think particular sectors of businesses, there is a need to bring about changes in nominal wages. The more concerned about failure to reallocate resources between businesses, industries, companies and countries. In order to get us back to a more prosperous World Economy. Tom mervyn king, thank you so much. Former bank of england governor. I think it is really important there, the idea of these underlying theories we will see in the new economy. ,hat panel today, janet yellen lord king and robin rajan. Indian centralhe bank. This is bloomberg. Oomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. The focus firmly on how leaders around the world are leading and dealing with coronavirus. Belgiums Prime Minister says intensive care units are pushed past their limits. Alexander the crew also told us he believes coronavirus restrictions will be in place for a long time. They spoke at the European Business summit in brussels. Going in a good direction which is the number of confirmed cases we have seen over the last week, the number is going down. Which is a good thing. On the other cycle movie see that in our intensive care units, the pressure is still very high. Cope with thee to fact that we have many people in hospitals. We have always had a High Quality Health Care system, but it is being pushed to the limits. We are here again showing that while there is a strong link between a strong, healthy and resilient economy and the Health Care System that is strong. At a paris conference, you said belgium at a press conference, you said you would need to act as one team. The restrictions you put in place have a huge impact not just on the economy, but people. Can you give us any insight as to whether these restrictions you fear are going to be here for a while, or whether there is a timeline Going Forward now that we have that vaccine news that you welcome like everyone else . It is a marathon. It is longterm at first. In belgium i have always said it is a marathon. We are for a moment closer to the start than we are to the finish. Ofm convinced that some kind restrictions will be applicable for a fairly long time. I have seen the positive news on vaccines, that is great. But, they are not there yet. We are still looking for the outcome of the medical trials. Vaccines and testing will be a part of what i would call a containment strategy. Containmentt strategy to be part of our lives for quite a long time. I want to pick up on your final point, because it does reflect everything we have heard from leaders across europe to get this message across that the vaccine is not a silver bullet. We all need to be flexible and adapt. How do we do that on a daily basis to keep the economy afloat . Do you have a plan for the next six months . A secondight we manage wave is different than the first wave. In the first wave we went for an almost full lockdown. Nonessential businesses. This time it is different. The nonessential retail is closed, but all of the other businesses are open. People have adapted themselves to work from home as much as they can. We have face masks. On,t of life is still going we have just been better at riskyfying what is behavior and trying to minimize the things that we know by now has an impact. Aboutou hear me talk vectors. Trust me, the belgian vector is worser than other major countries. Up, the markets. Futures up 27. Russell cost rich. This is bloomberg. Tom this morning, there is an acknowledgment the pandemic continues. The Prime Minister selfisolates. French and germans want lockdowns. Michigan in part michigan under partial lockdown. Markets acknowledge pacific rim growth prospects. Futures up 29. The president continues his gambit, saying he concedes nothing. Mr. Bolton says the president harms the country. The chairman of the joint chiefs of staff says we do not take an oath to a king, queen, tyrant or dictator. Extraordinary comments. Good morning. In new york,e Francine Lacqua in london. Pushed aside by a video treated by the technologist, the Prime Minister of the united kingdom. What did Prime MinisterBoris Johnson say . Francine