Isolating after coming into contact with lawmakers are tested positive for coronavirus. Good morning and welcome to bloomberg surveillance. This is a picture of the markets. A lot of the focus is on a number of infected. A lot of the focus is on the policymakers can do Going Forward. Onot of the focus will be some of the things we saw for example following asian shares. Buoyed by positive sentiment on trade. In thanar is falling the other thing im looking at is oil pushing higher. Treasuries edging up. The focus is on the sustainability of the economic recovery. Hoping for are also news on more vaccines coming up that could be positive after what we heard from pfizer. Now lets get straight to bloomberg first word news in london. Trump is still refusing to concede the election. The president tweeted the joe biden one because the election was rigged to. A claim flagged by twitter. Commentswalked back to saying i can see nothing. We have a long way to go. The u. K. Prime minister Boris Johnson is isolating after coming into contact with an mp who tested positive for covid19. In april, the covid19 put the Prime Minister in intensive care is the u. K. Struggled through the first wave of the pandemic. Austria is locking down for three weeks as measures failed to slow the pandemic. After a just two weeks partial lockdown was imposed, leaving large parts of the economy open. Hopes theseor restrictions can end on the sixth of december. Sport, Dustin Johnson made history while making his first masters tournament. He shot a record 20 under par to win by five shots. It was the largest margin of victory in the masters in 23 years. Global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im leighann gerrans, this is bloomberg. Thank you so much. Global stocks are climbing towards records as fresh vexing reports are on the horizon. Drugmakers are expected to obtain more trial data. Joining us now is the chief Investment Officer and head of Investment Solutions at Deutsche Bank. As always, thanks for joining us. Vaccine ornews of a the fact the u. S. May not go into lockdown . Me,nt know if you can hear we may have a couple of technical difficulties. It takes a little while longer for our machines to get up and working in satellites. Let me do a quick data check and we will reestablish connection. A lot of the focus is on what we heard from pfizer and their seems to be a bit of momentum on the market we could see more positive trial data. I know we speak to industry participants and they dont want to be compared as rivals, so is there so there is a lot of concern about the sustainability of the economic recovery in the persistent flareup in virus cases. If you look at the numbers in the u. S. , pretty incredible. Lets try and reestablish with christian. I dont know if you can hear me this time. I can. Good morning. Francine wonderful. The job done. What you markets look at from now until the end of the year . Lockdownsone hand, and how long will that take. Is it going to take longer . In the next two or three weeks we get more news about additional vaccines and how they are distributed which i think will be positive news. And then of course there is an aspect to the u. S. Elections and handover of presidency. Then the Senate Elections in georgia on january 5 will be very important as well. I think thats the key points for markets to look at. Does it make you nervous the markets are higher but the number of infected, the number of deaths is rising still quite rapidly . Is there too much hope on the future priced in and not enough of whats happening now . Of course i think it makes you personally nervous infections arising globally. The markets try to look through attitude is the that if there is more lockdowns you would also get more fiscal help, more monetary help. The same will happen on the political side. Its a bit of weighing of the balance. Being wehat the time think the support coming, its tough to imagine central bankers or politicians would on the policy at that time. Francine what gets priced into bonds from that . Is it more furloughs and monetary easing, or is there a concern that we could see inflation quicker than expected if we do have a vaccine . Whats interesting to see when we saw the results of the u. S. Elections, first, by trump auld win and then you see change to the upside. With a pure biden when there could also be an upside because it be a massive fiscal package. Worlds witht of two the senate probably being republican and biden president. From that perspective we saw yields not moving massively higher in their view over the next one years time you will see still a kind of yield curve controlled by the central banks. The short end is very low and on the longer and it will be happening from banks around the world. From that perspective we dont see a mess. Think we have seen consumers coming back hopefully once the vaccine is there, they travel more, they spend more money and there probably will be some additional taxes coming up. I dont think there will be wesive upside for inflation, think inflation is slightly higher next year and then higher for 2022. But not a massive inflation run. You can see expectations already now. Which by the way is quite positive for equities again. What is your take on some of the Technology Stocks . We are using all this great technology, but is it going to be regulated . There was also some concern the biden government would be much quicker on this. I think there will be more regulation. I think it will be slow. I dont expect any quick move on this. I think if you look at what the markets are doing, i think its too early for the socalled reopening trade where you would go into cyclicals. 2021, i think there will be a point in time where you say the valuations are very high in technology and the growth rate weve seen this year not coming back. It cannot always be repeated what weve seen this year. Maybe in the First Quarter of next year we need to switch not only to value, its more cyclical. Thank you so much. Next, President Trump comes close to a concession before walking it back and saying he concedes nothing. We will get the latest on u. S. Politics next. This is bloomberg. Feednald trumps twitter doesnt make joe biden present or not president. The american that. The General Service administration deliver that so we can start to do the kinds of things you and i talked about a few minutes ago. Meet with these vaccine officials. Get the briefings for the Vice President the president elect and the Vice President elect. Wascine that president elect bidens chief of staff speaking. President donald trump is still refusing to concede. The president tweeted biden one because the election was rigged. A claim flagged by twitter. He walked back to comment saying i can see nothing. Axios is reporting President Trump land several new hardline moves against china in the remaining weeks of his term. Joining us for perspective on what we are seeing our Stephanie Baker whos been following the Trump Administration from the beginning. Thanks for joining us. World, itsside pretty incredible whats happening in the u. S. What will happen in the next couple of weeks . Does the president finally concede . Are we expecting more legal challenges to be involved . Like trump will not concede or at least not in a way we have become accustomed to. Heont think that means wont actually leave office or leave the white house. I think you will continue to pursue these legal challenges. So far, every legal challenge hes mounted has lost in court because they dont have evidence. Ive lost count of the number of legal challenges theyve launched. I think its a by my latest count. So i think legally i dont see it going anywhere. I think this is a strategy had a message you will be hammering for the next four years. I think the expectation is he may announce something that is short of a concession, but also at the same time announcing a potential run in 2024 and that he will be pushing this narrative that the election has been stolen from him, stoking support amongst his 70 plus one million supporters as a way to the king maker of the Republican Party over the next few years. I think its a dangerous game. You are seeing increasing anders of republicans, out demand president elect bidens biden be given security briefings. John bolton said so. There are some cracks appearing in the Republican Party in terms of the way this level of support they are providing. But this is a real dangerous game. Will the Republican Party have him in 2024 . If you look at the months ahead from now until december from now and december. How much policy can President Trump actually do especially with china. Things. S done two the most significant move so far is removing secretary of defense esper and installing political loyalists. I think that is what has many people worried about what steps he might take. For instance, accelerated withdrawal from troops of f of troops from afghanistan. Hobbling a biden administration, setting up a situation where they are hemmed in as to what they can do. We have this report over the saying trumpaxios planned several measures on china, cracking down perhaps banning Additional Companies, putting Additional Companies on the banned list for u. S. Companies to do business with. Cracking down on its labor hamming the Incoming Administration as to what they can do on china. Take a similarly tough position on china. Perhaps their methodology and approach to china is different. They both view china with similarly tough terms. Seen whatns to be they will do and what effect they would have on the biden administration. Stephanie, thank you so much. Still with us is christian nolte, Deutsche Bank international. Thank you for sticking around. When you look at some of the dynamics between the u. S. And china. How should the markets price in. You were telling me you like to go gold. Is that a haven or do you use it as another way of looking at the markets . Gold i like because i see inflation slightly moving up. I think thats the key point for gold and also we dont expect a massive strength in the u. S. Dollar. China, the at u. S. Policy from my point of view doesnt change. Might in general would be quite swift. I think that something markets have priced. I havent seen comments that we do expect a massive change. There was no one saying we would be more relaxed. Now youve seen the new formation of this large theres also competition between the u. S. And this new area. Nevertheless, i think the better news probably is that i dont expect biden to put additional tariffs on europe. How theto see negotiations really work. There is also this big asian trade pack announced yesterday. Asian countries and china the big winners for 2020 . Look at what china just came out with its numbers. The recovery is happening there. It looks quite ok how they can deal with the virus. Worldeed the rest of the to also be open to do their trade. So at full speed you need an open global world. What they are building in asia i think is very positive. They massively bring down tariffs within the area. Its interesting to see india has not joined so far. Joining. Still open to it would be the largest trade union globally. Something which is very positive. Itn china joined the wto, took some time but the positivity was there. The more you get on trade, that should be seen as a positive by markets. Thank you so much christian. We will have plenty more on the markets coming up. We also speak to the former bank of england governor around one hour from now. About thek him economy. This is bloomberg. We get the overwhelming majority of people taking the vaccine. On the one hand you have a highly effective vaccine and on the other hand you have a high uptake of vaccine, we could get things back to relative normal into the second and Third Quarter of the year. People to start thinking about doing things that were too dangerous just months ago. That was dr. Anthony fauci speaking yesterday. Lets get to the Bloomberg Business flash. Provider nextment year is buying their rival. Expanding its reach across the continent. It adds to a wave of consolidation in the industry. Did the deal generating Pnc Financial has agreed to purchase bbva u. S. Operations. Nations largest regional bank. It comes a smaller lenders are looking to scale up. The Worlds Biggest Oil company is set to return to the bond market for the First Time Since last april. Audi aramco is looking for 75 billion commitment. Its hired banks including Goldman Sachs for this sale. Thats your Bloomberg Business flash. Thank you so much. Lets get to the markets. Focusing on some positives out there including the World Economy sustaining its engine despite the number of infections rising across the world. Looking at european stocks rising. If you look at some of the other things we should be watching out for. We know Boris Johnson is isolating after he came in contact with a person who subsequently tested positive for the virus. Asian nations also signed the massive trade pack giving momentum filtered through to asia. Are definitely climbing towards a record and we also had joe bidens virus advisors saying a lockdown is not on the agenda. With fresh vaccine reports on the horizon, we will wrap up round up the latest coronavirus reports. We will look at whether people will actually take the vaccine and whether its one dose or multiple doses. This is bloomberg. As the Global Economy shifts from high carbon to green, governments are looking for ways to make a transition which leaves no one behind. This is the monumental challenge with diverse issues. Countries like france, the United States, poland, and saudi arabia have grossed a medic toduct related differently emissions, meaning they face different challenges to richness zero. Countries like poland get 75 of their power from coal. Arabiass of saudi state revenue is generated from the oil industry, and two thirds of all saudi workers are employed in the public sector. 400,000 jobs at risk in germany as the industry moves to electric vehicles. Despite the potential economic and political fallout of the transition, countries agree it needs to happen. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2018 outlined a steep decline needed to reach 2040. Ero in 2055 or even but there is hope and a way to do this fairly. Places like the u. K. Have shown increased growth while decreasing their core consumption. Thene step is driving down step of new technologies, renewables are getting cheaper, costs are expected to decline. There are now just over 10,000 jobs in the offshore wind industry in the u. K. And former industrial and manufacturing hubs, and the industry expects this number to more than triple over the coming decades. Other countries are finding their own successful formulas. India, for example, has some of the cheapest solar electricity are creating and 100,000 jobs in Renewable Energy whilst increasing being competitiveness that while increasing the competitiveness of its economy. A Just Transition is possible. Francine the Bloomberg NewEconomy Forum takes place this week, bringing together mobile leaders to focus on rebuilding the economy in the post covid world. The event can be watched online. You canh online watch online on the terminal. We are inspecting the indian Prime Minister, we are expecting a number of other people. The u. N. Secretary general but also the Prime Minister of singapore. It will be really interesting to get their takes on the pandemic. Lets get to bloomberg first word news with leighann gerrans. Leighann good morning, francine. President trump is reportedly planning a new crackdown on china in his final week in the white house. According to axios, he may announce sanctions or restrictions against Chinese Companies or officials. The move would be to prevent joe biden from changing course on china. The u. K. Is hinting brexit talks could be extended again as key disagreements still remain. David fosters heading back to brussels with more talks. Will not beain changing its position. The december 13 deadline is now fast approaching. And spacex has launched four astronauts into orbit on its first regular nasa mission to the International Space station. To dragon capsule is set arrive at about 4 00 a. M. Tuesday morning london time after blasting off from cape canaveral. It is a milestone in the development of commercial spaceflight. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im 120 countries, leighann gerrans. This is bloomberg. Francine . You so much. Nk coming up, how do you forecast retail demand during the endemic as we head to the biggest weeks for the sector . Many businesses are facing christmas like no other. More on that next. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Lots going on. Lets get to the Bloomberg Business flash with leighann gerrans. Hi, leighann. Leighann italian payment provider nexium is buying buying nexi expanding its reach across the continent, consolidation in the industry. The two firms generating 170 170 millionos euros of synergy to the year. 11. 6 billion. The deal would make it the nations largest regional bank. It comes as smaller lenders are giants to scale up, as j. P. Morgan and bank of america move into new states and sectors. And the Worlds Biggest Oil company is set to return to the bond market for the First Time Since last april. Saudi aramco is looking to find it 75 billion Dividend Commitment after Weak Oil Prices left it without the funds to banksthe payout at including Goldman Sachs for that sale. That is the business. Francine . Francine thank you so much, leighann. How do you forecast details during the pandemic . Many consumers are facing a christmas like no other. Have been site for the web to make sure they bring the right product to the right person at the right time. Mike brackett is the founder and chief executive of sanctuary tricity. Of cen is it easier because you know where people are and you know where people shop mainly online . Great question, francine. If you look at what last years buying trends were if you imagine you are a multinational cpg company and are looking at last years trends to see what this years Shopping Patterns would be, we have seen that all consumer patterns have changed cooking habits have changed, entire new generations have entered the cookie market. Increasingly it is difficult to correctly forecast that on top of supply chain issues and stocks that we have already seen. Francine what do people want to buy, first of all. Will that continue into the new year . Mike absolutely. Through allg that retail sectors the. The majority of what we have seen, during the lockdown that was considered essential. But to your point come another liberal retail is open and the nonessential businesses have been able to open, we are seeing q4 for are seeing the the holidays coming in, where you have the complexity of a compressed buy chain mo which is what we are seeing with our European Partners as well. As well as backtoschool supplies you have a lot of people who are now at home, teaching their children, who were not before and we are seeing lockdowns go back into effect. Again, you compress this with the largest buying season of the year, with another wave of the pandemic, and subsequent lockdowns happening, and it has created an interesting and challenging outlook for retail cpg companies. Francine how do you collect the know, ouragain, you tastes changing because we cook more at home . This is for the grocers. Raw centricity takes in anonymized internet traffic from all over the world, we layer on both human and Artificial Intelligence on top of that, geo locate all of that within about a one kilometer accuracy anywhere in the world, and what we are able to do is we are able to see what Consumer Trends are to your point in real time as well as in the future. The data tools that have been incompetent before that have been incumbent before us, there has been a historical pointofsale data which is very problematic these days. So what we are really seeing trending, to your point, is besides the obvious stockpiling, unfortunately we are seeing paper towel and toilet paper sort of stuff, but we are seeing Different Things that we never would have expected, such as Different Things in the spice category as people cook more. The millennial generation in dense urban areas, who have never cooked before have been forced to out of necessity. As we sawas drastic in the first layer of the pandemic, but we are seeing we are seeing it sustained more so than we thought that we would, but also with the fear of subsequent lockdowns as they have increased. To answer your question, we feel the consumer tastes have changed, and more people are entering this cooking at home sort of market that perhaps were not before, and no retailers and Consumer Goods Companies are trying to adjust during this holiday season. Youre looking at canned goods, you need to make the decisions now as to what people will want in summer of 2021. If we have a vaccine, the people who started cooking at home, will they continue doing so, or will blue go back to restaurants if we can afford them . Mike i think that we are going to see both. Certainly any retailer is seeing more profitability than we have seen in some instances in the history of their company, so i think they are hoping to retain a good portion of that market share, but of course after a vaccine, we expect that people will go back to normal. What is interesting is that even welockdowns have eased up, still see no vaccine, but we are still seeing a lot of that demand on the retail side. If you are a retail or consumer good company, this is the best trial you couldve asked for to get people into your business, and they will do everything they can to retain that. But you will have on the other side of that, restaurants doing everything they can to ease people back in. One of the more interesting logistical things that has happened out of this is Companies Like instacart or even these large institutional multinational retailers have fast milen forced to delivery services, through instacart or through first Party Systems themselves. So the ease of accessibility to shop from a Grocery Store even if you are not able to or wanting to go from home is more accessible than it ever has been, due to the sheer accessibility of these companies needing to reach their customers. That is something that will not go away. That pattern from brickandmortar to online has been rightly amplified. We think that that market share will absolutely retain as well. Just muchare people more healthy . I dont know whether that was a trend that was already there that you could identify, or whether that is really accelerating during the pandemic. Guess it know, i depends. We certainly have seen one could make the argument that cooking at home is holistic the more healthy, but we have also seen yu jie increases in Alcohol Consumption and the subsequent demand for that. But i think that overall this has released this is really started getting people to think about their diet and their health, and we have seen that reflect. Our hope is that coming out of this, that a lot of the positive trends stay. We are seeing trends of that on our platform as well. Thank you so much, Mike Brackett of centricity. Stick around and talk about of course some of the Consumer Trends we have seen. Loreal sees a makeup revival after the pandemic. The chief executive told us that even though ecommerce has gained traction during the crisis, the market will not completely move away from brickandmortar stores. I think that, as you have seen, we were back to growth in the Third Quarter. The market is still negative, so we are doing better than the market, but the market should recover. There is a very strong appetite everywhere in the world for beauty products. As i explained several times, the crisis that we have had this year is not really a demand crisis as it has been in the past. Other crises have been more supply crises because consumers could not buy the product. We are back in europe, back from down, but now getting traction, wini think there will be a there will be a when the virus is gone. That we will be back to the consumption, because the appetite for beauty is there more than ever. Your chief digital officer talked about ecommerce, the demand, and they talked about the fact that it is your biggest market now. All of this clearly fueled by the pandemic. Will it ever be 100 and we see an ease up or phaseout of brickandmortar Retail Stores . Think so. Consumers are switching a lot of consumers are switching every year from brickandmortar to ecommerce. Of course, it was accelerated this year. It was already going very fast before. I will remind you last year, for sales, commerce this year it will go even faster. N the stores were closed it represents now 25 of our sales. So it is going to keep growing, but consumers will always want to have the opportunity to see products in stores, so i am a great believer in what we are describing a few years ago online, offline versus as two options, combinations of options. What are you currently seeing given the fact that europe is dealing with the second wave, france is in lockdown, the u. K. Is in lockdown. How has that affected your business . It doesnt help, of course. Im really sorry for our partners, for the salon partners, department stores. It is really difficult for them. So we help them as much as we can. During the first lockdown we helped our smaller customers, and we accelerated payments to our suppliers, so we will be doing the same. Customer,o help our and of course it doesnt help consumption. But i hope it will not last too long, and consumers i think are more now aware of the other options. They grow in ecommerce, they find solutions. But of course it doesnt help. It should not last too long. That was loreal chief executive jeanpaul agon speaking on the industry revival. If you look at a lot of european stocks, as they follow u. S. Futures, looking at records. The focus is firmly on the positive momentum on trade, talking about what is happening in asia, and a lot of the Asian Countries signing onto this historic trade deal yesterday. There are also signs to opposition debt signs of opposition to a National American lockdown which seems to be supportive of a lot of the stocks, and the dollar is falling. If you look at the other things we are watching, i would look at european cyclical stocks that seem to have pulled ahead. Coming up, belgiums Prime Minister says the countrys intensive care units are pushed to the limit. Our interview with alexander to cool this is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Belgiums Prime Minister says the countrys intensive care units are pushed to the limit. In an interview with maria tadeo, he told us he believes coronavirus restrictions will be in place for a long time. They spoke at the European Business summit in brussels. The numbers are going in a good direction, which is the number of confirmed cases. Have seen over the last week numbers going down, which is a good thing. On the other, we see in our intensive care units, the pressure is still very high. We will be able to the fact that we have many people in hospital, we have a lot of hospital capacity, a very high pass highcapacity Health Care System, but it is being pushed to the limit. We are showing again that while there is a very strong link between a strong and healthy and resilient economy and a Health Care System that is strong. Maria at a press conference you said that we all in belgium but also we all need to act as one team, so i do wonder the restrictions put in place, they have a huge impact not just on the economy, and also on people. Could you give us any insight as to whether what you do feel are going to be here for a while and people need to get used to this, or whether there is a timeline Going Forward now that we have the vaccine news that im sure you welcome like everyone else. Alexander it is a marathon. I have always said it is a marathon. We are for the moment closer to the start of that marathon then we are to the finish. So im convinced that some kind of measure, some kind of restrictions will be applicable for a fairly long time. I have seen the positive news on vaccines. Thats great. But they are not there yet. We are looking for the outcome of the medical trials, so vaccines and self testing will call art of what i will containment strategy, and i expect the containment strategy to be part of our lives for quite a long time. Went to pick up on the final point that you just give because it reflect everything we have heard from leaders across europe, the commission, to get this message across, that the vaccine is not a silver bullet, that we all need to be flexible and adapt. How do we do that on a daily basis to keep the economy afloat . Do you have a plan in terms of what the next six months will look like in terms of the belgian economy . Alexander the way we managed the second wave is different than what we did in the first way. In the first wave we did a full lockdown, closing down all nonessential businesses. This time is different. The nonessential retail is closed, and all the other businesses are open. Asple are working from home much as they can. We now have face masks. A lot of life is still going on, it is just we have been better riskyntifying what is behavior, and trying to minimize the things of which we buy now know that it has an impact. Primene that was belgium minister Alexander De Croo speaking at the European Business summit in brussels. The focus on the markets is on some of the positive news out there, the fact that joe bidens advisors have said they will not look at a lockdown again. Somata questions about whether we will put the economy against the health of people. This is the way it goes, and that is what the markets are looking at. The number of infected keep rising there is hope that a vaccine will be here sooner than expected. We will also look at some of the scarring for the economy around the world. Bloomberg surveillance continues in the next hour. Tom coyne tom keene joins me from new york, and this is bloomberg. Francine balancing risks. While president elect bidens team suggests a National Lockdown isnt on the agenda, virus cases in the u. S. Surpass 11 million, but global stocks continue to gain. Trumps last stand. The president comes close to admitting he lost but walks back at talk of a concession on twitter. Theres reports he plans fresh hardline moves against beijing in the final weeks of his term. And, best laid plans. Brexit talks with the e. U. Enter another crucial week, but the u. K. Prime minister is isolating after coming into contact with a lawmaker who tested positive for coronavirus. Good morning and welcome to bloomberg surveillance. Im Francine Lacqua in london. Tom keene is in new york. Of course, if youre watching from asia, good afternoon to you. This is monday morning and there is a lot going on. We look at the historic trade agreement with a lot of the Asian Countries. That was signed yesterday. It may put extra pressure on the next president of the United States to rejoin tpt, but the focus is on the president , President Trump,