Thank you had Industrial Production numbers as well and investment rose faster than expected. Oil demand is suffering a fresh blow from a resurgent of the pandemic keeping frustration on opec members as they prepared to meet this week. It is 8 00 a. M. Across the emirates. Got quite a rally. Futures. E, u. S. Equity not a lot of Economic Data expected in the coming days. A lot of the focus is going to be on the raging impact of the coronavirus not just in the United States but beyond. Percent higher. Morgan stanley joining Goldman Sachs in pinning a positive outlook for equities. Their base case for it to reach 3900 by the end of 2021. 10yearyearolds yields at a dip it gave it a few goes. Fews going to go be a pesky trading sessions. Bowe bergdahl are down. 25 percent. This new trade deal adds to negative dollar sentiment. 1 as we countby down to the meeting. Gathering sion it is not a policy what is underway in the markets over there. We are seeing an 11 session of gains with the Msci Asia Pacific index looking like it will close at an alltime high, the highest since the index was formed in 1998. Morgan stanley saying risk on address the recovery in 2021. The asset deal as well. Positive gdp data out of japan. At the data dump looks fairly positive out of china as well. Adding to momentum. Nikkei holding at june 1991 highs and csi 300 rising on the back of that data delusion coming through out. Offshore yuan holding at these junes. Australia has not traded today and we got a line from asx saying equity markets will not open for the remainder of the day. It would have been another hour to trade anyway. Here was a glitch at the asx they are saying to resolution path has been putting place to allow trading to commence. The underlying cause has been identified but there will be no trading expected to resume tuesday in sydney. Yousef remarkable development. Thank you very much for some of the details. Lets check on headlines to round out the picture. President trump is still refusing to concede the election but appears to election is the rate is why he was one. The post was flagged by twitter. In wrote playing golf the president tweeted he is conceding nothing and there is a long way to go. U. K. Prime minister Boris Johnson is selfisolating after coming into contact with the lawmaker who tested positive for covid19. Another blow for the government as he attempts to regain control of the National Agenda after a chaotic few days saw the departure of his most powerful aid and communications director. Johnson suffered a severe bout of covid19 in april which put him in intensive care. The u. K. Is scenting brexit talks may be extended as the two sides played selfimposed deadlines. They had back to brussels this week with the johnson government saying it will not be changing its stance despite some reports of progress. The irans foreign minister is reported to have said a deal is difficult but doable well eu sources say this is the week to move or there will be no deal. On the Iranian Oil Minister link toappears to be a u. S. Agents. At the Trump Administration impose measures on him but sources and tehran say the decision may be associated with that move. Twitter has had to respond to bloomberg request for clarification. Link say this tweet is from a suspended account. Spacex successfully launched four astronauts into orbit on the first regular commercial nasa mission to the International Space station. Back in first landing of the landing. Afterew launched 18 years elon musk found spacex. First word headlines. We are off to a positive start to the week after two of president elect joe bidens coronavirus advisors say they oppose lockdowns. Drugmakers including pfizer expecting to obtain more trial data later this week. Updates are awaited as the pandemic continues to accelerate. Cases in the u. S. Have topped 11 million. Joining us now is the head of Market Strategy at the union overseas bank. Welcome back to the program. [indiscernible] yousef is the market trying to get more risk on or is it mispricing this potential blowback from the coronavirus . At [indiscernible] [indiscernible] the renewed and treasuries. Equities across the globe are tracking alltime highs. A lot of cash on the sidelines waiting to come back in. They will grasp at any positive news. We worry about things on the horizon all the time. Disturbing and surreal environment. President trump still goes to golf games well [indiscernible] our numbers are saying that the recovery in the market is starting to slow down. The low hanging fruit, job gains are all over. Uncertainty. T of that is going to hang on Market Sentiment in it weeks ahead as we near december. With growthntment numbers may well slow down a bit of equity recovery. I look at what is happening with treasury yields. A bit of a narrative emerging amongst investors and traders that we could percolate to the 1 line. That did not happen just yet on u. S. 10 year yields. What matters more to this race market . Is it backseat progress or lack thereof or is it the surge in virus cases . I think [indiscernible] is a two steps forward and one step back here back when it comes to treasury yields. Again it is that flow. Helpsve vaccine news stabilize the move higher in yield. Our view remains we will still see 1 off slightly higher. We have the 105 forecast for the First Quarter next year. It is not a negative forecast i want to emphasize. It is still a reasonably constructive risk for cause. Treasury yields has two move to priceghlight in the ongoing physical risk whether it is the u. S. Or globally. Financial markets seem to comfortably ignore [indiscernible]. The focus is on positive vaccine news. Yousef we have an incoming u. S. Still refusing to concede. Arguably he will make the hand over quite tough, difficult, and unpredictable. Through toat trickle Mike Bloomberg dollar traders. We need to stop donald trump from going to his golf games. It is unfortunate. Think with every delay it is not about biden or trump anymore. It is about getting numbers down in u. S. And getting u. S. Growth on a stable path. Concernsincreasing that growth recovery in the Fourth Quarter may falter as. His transition gets delayed trust background we can [indiscernible] and the fact that they are still there pumping liquidity into financial markets. It stabilizes the economy. Debt drives the dollar further down. That will not change. The fed, the pump in the liquidity still continues to drive dollars lower and that is our base case heading into the First Quarter of next year. Sheet let me get andrew into the conversation in terms of comments he has made in a new Research Report to clients. He is one of the key voices at Morgan Stanley and he writes this Global Recovery is sustainable. Supported by policy. Keep the faith. Trust the recovery. To go onelling clients more aggressive into u. S. Equities at this point on that basis . Hope isxpectation and of course that the recovery as a strong rebound. Everyone saw it is sustainable until the first half of next year. The we are constructive but cautious. Simply because you have various [indiscernible] and it is a leap of faith to expect a strong pace of recovery in the Third Quarter to be sustainable. Think about this. Price drops to 50. It brings the recovery back to 100 and we have a huge 100 jump. Theiscernible] and all of economies in the world. It needs to make a huge gap and continue to bridge that gap. Significant to expect growth to rebound at such a strong pace. That is what we saw in the Third Quarter. Yousef hold that thought. We still have quite a few things to look at together. You are staying with us. We have plenty more ahead on this program. This is bloomberg. Yousef new data out this morning shows chinas recovery remains well on track in october with Consumer Spending picking up in both Industrial Production and investment rising faster than expected. Beijing and finally completed the Worlds Largest freetrade deal. Our cep will include 15 countries, 2. 2 billion people and more than 2. 6 trillion in gdp. President trump is planning several new hardline moves against china in the remaining weeks of his term, including sanctions and trade restrictions as well. Ofll with us is the head Market Strategy at union overseas bank. I want to start with this new that emergedbloc as a counterweight to other international agreements. It will take two years for a lot of these countries to ratify it. It is a bit too early to start weighing the market implications. I think in the longer run it is very positive and we need to be reassured that all asian nations continue to work toward trade, globalization, and this is one of them. Think this is important because it grows our trade impact so significantly. Basically a 25 trillion gdp trade. Gdp itself is around 3 trillion. Most of it is china. It feeds back into chinas growth circulation model. It is an ambitious plan to double gdp and the next 15 years well becausee] as chinas big domestic population in terms of demand will help grow trade in the region. The u. S. Is having difficulty participating in this. Unfortunate, but asia can wait. We have to grow our own trade bloc, help each other out and this is a Good Development. Yousef in terms of data we got from the government arguably it is mixed. You had factory output, property investment, they all beat. Retail sales was not something they were writing home about. That also missed. Analysis from the markets live feet. What is your read on this . Had very strong expectations. Identified in the past few months that missing piece to solidify chinas growth recovery. There are symptoms. Jump in online sales, which is remarkable. Salesrlier figures on car , domestic car sales in china are back in the positive. They were previously held down by trade issues. The costly move to that new energy models. And debt hase] gone up. If you look outside the numbers something very interesting this morning in which the chinese authorities start to sound the alarm again on pollution. And askingble] factories to control their admissions. That is not a Good Development for the environmental side but it is wonderful for the economy. Economic activity is back on track. But i willtunate take this as good news for growth growing back in china. We think it is on track for packse gdp to cross a about 5 , 7 three covid growth in the Fourth Quarter. Yousef do you expect the u. S. President donald trump to announce new sanctions, restrictions on chinese officials or companies. Kind of gift to the new administration that might be coming in with joe biden and what would that mean for the is already a bit off a strong rally . That risks a snapback, doesnt it . It is again frustrating. You can trust trump to still pull a full rabbits from within his hat. I think we are mentally prepared for that. Is background noise. If you look at the renminbi, we were talking about [indiscernible] four years 65. Just two years of growth. The pfizer bob and equities bob bump. We are at 658. While we know we will see 665 by the end of november. It is not just geopolitics driving the renminbi. For china ise] very important now. The new premium for chinese fixed income is now a dominant driver in the stronger renminbi trade. Yousef it has been great catching up. Thank you for joining us. We still have a lot to get through on bloomberg daybreak middle east. This is bloomberg. Yousef it is shaping up to be a big week in turkey as traders look ahead to a rates decision by the new Central Bank Governor on thursday. Simone foxman is been following the market action. Where do economist and as we look ahead to the week . What has shifted . Certainly the shakeup of the countrys financial leadership. Are having amists completely different conversation than they were having a few weeks ago and that is why our colleagues believe this is going to be the most closely watched events and emerging markets all week. Central bankw governor as well as the new economy and finance minister going around talking to business leaders, promising a more traditional policy moves that will quell inflation. What economists are really stuck on it right now is exactly the kind of move we are going to see. Nearly all that we have surveyed predicts a hike. At the exact amount is really different when you talk to different economist. Barclays, Goldman Sachs, union credit think we could see a hike as large as 475 basis points. The folks at Morgan Stanley are looking for something much smaller. They believe the market would be ok with that, just 150 basis other and they point to things that might be on the Central Banks mind, domestic inflation drivers, local currency loan growth. Those things they believe have slow down a bit and do not require the same level of hike that the other folks are predicting. Callingably the mayor for a local looked on as coronavirus cases flare up there again. That sideline motive that the central bank is considering as we look ahead to the end of the week. Yousef what other economic narratives are we looking at ofn from the region in terms the events particularly this week . What should investors be penciling in . We have a light week for Economic Data, but one thing i will be paying attention to is some of our inflation data. We got inflation data out last night from israel. 0. 8 , a little more deflation than economists expected. We will be getting new data out likely from qatar as well as from dubai. Among the countries around the world, experiencing the lowest rates of inflation. That is something economists worry could really dampen investment and economic growth. We will start to see these numbers role in. It takes a long time to do that. Bit ofee a little recovery in economic activity, this is a place we will need to watch as a potential concern on that story. Yousef the u. S. Secretary of state mike pompeo is on a tour to europe and the middle east. What exactly can come of that and what are the risks . Everyone is watching this visit so closely. Differenceshe between the president elects likely Foreign Policy to the region as well as the current Trump Administrations, what area i would point out already we are starting to see add lines is in israel. The israelite authority solicited bids for 1002 ordered 57 apartments. This is a strategically important neighborhood in east jerusalem. That would be for israeli buildings. Mike pompeo scheduled to visit a west Bank Settlement this week. That is an unprecedented move by him. This is something folks and obviously saying is happening right before this change in administration. Longstandinga redline. Obviously this is something we will have to pay close attention to as the week moves forward. Yousef thank you for that. We will keep a close eye on that. , in the next couple of hours one of syria trivia stopped implements diplomats, the foreign minister, as died. No reason was given for his passing but what is clear is that a very important force in arab politics has now passed away and that opens the door arguably for a potential policy shift in the wider geopolitical calculus as investors look at this region. Plenty more i had. This is bloomberg. 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Com. Yousef this is bloomberg daybreak middle east. Our top stories this morning. Markets begin the week on a positive footing as two of joe bidens advisors say they oppose a nationwide lockdown in the United States. Global stocks further pushing into record territory with more vaccine trial data to as early as this week. Morgan stanley says risk on address the recovery. Chinaonomic bounceback in strengthened with Consumer Spending picking up. Industrial production and investment figures rose faster than expected. Oil demand is suffering a fresh loaf from a resurgence in the pressure onping opecplus members as they prepare to meet this week. Lets check in on market action. Juliet in the studio. On. Ette certainly risk asian stocks rise for an 11 session at the regional benchmark index on track to close at a record as we see momentum coming through across these markets on the back of the deal and it does reports or indications that the u. S. Economy will not be locked down a biden administration. Buying coming through entech players. At that Index Holding at a record. The kospi is one of the strongest performers along with the nikkei to do five, holding at the junes. Today although Bloomberg Economic said this activity data shows the final mile to 2021 will not be easy. Offshore yuan holding at june 18 eyes and we are seeing the downese yen recounts him after it was hold off on the offset siding. In aussie dollar and australian yields, there was no trading and equity markets today. The asx as the underlying cause of the issue as been identified and they have a resolution path in place for training to resume on tuesday. They have not detailed what the issue wasnt that forced trading to be halted in australia today. Gotef and then you have more analysts out with their 2021 outlook reports. Think back to the 2019 reports that were looking to 2020. A lot of that were arguably far off. What is one take on out next year may play out . Lets hope we are not facing another black swan event. Morgan stanley is saying trust the recovery and ride into 2021. They are looking quite bullish here. They have got a base case for the s p 500 to reach by 2021. Global stocks have recovered prepandemic highs. Lets look more at some of their calls. Morgan stanley saying the 10 year u. S. Treasury yields will be at 1. 45 percent by the end of 2021 at the dollar index will can by thee we end of next year to. And leverage loans over high euro yield bonds. Yousef well see how that really plays out. Thank you very much. Lets turn our attention to study lenders who boosted the main index in riyadh in the last 24 hours amid bets of higher earnings next year. More on this with our equity specialist. That . S behind we had a very strong session for saudi banks yesterday. If we take a look at the index in riyadh, and 0. 7 to the highest levels since february just before we had the major hit by the coronavirus and stock market pretty much everywhere. When we look at individual names that had this outstanding performance, [indiscernible] also saudi british bank, all of them invested as much as 2. 1 yesterday helping the index to climb around 0. 8 . If we look at what analysts were , said there is this potential there could be for saudigs upside banks between 2020 and 2021. That is basically considering a scenario of outlook in improvement in business in general in the second half and also for the first half of next isr, considering the virus under control and we have a vaccine by the second half of the year. Earnings in the Third Quarter were better than a lot of analysts were expecting. You can build in a much better scenario for next year. Yousef and here in the united jumped astes, make much as 3 with some investors say this is the right time to buy. What were you able to draw from some of the commentary . Question that is exactly right. Yesterday thatay the bank had a quite outstanding performance. It rose close to 3. 5 and you were talking about the biggest lender here. The next really important stock in abu dhabi. When you talk to people looking cyclicalame, this is a recovery trade. People are looking for stocks trading at an objective level considering a much better scenario for the end of the year before we knew at the stock is trading at a very attractive evaluation. It is still the biggest lender in the country. It comes on a lot of support from Public Sector related entities. Its credit portfolio is stronger than many other players we have out there. When people start looking for value, Abu Dhabi Bank is one of the first names that comes to their mind here. Yousef another stock that caught my attention was one of the largest listed companies. There is not a lot of traction in terms of interests from analysts and institutions to look at this particular play. It is focused now because of these covid19 vaccine potential distribution. That is correct. We published an interview this morning from our colleague with the ceo of the company saying the agility is ready to start distribute the vaccine and over 120 countries throughout the world, especially in emerging markets. This is an interesting signal to companies are giving to the markets at this moment. This will definitely be a huge topic going forward. People are ready to start receiving this kind of information and learn more about it. I think agility was quite clear in their message that they are ready to help. Other parts of the interview i think it is worth highlighting, the company said there ecommerce sector as been growing in the past few months, especially after lockdowns imposed in kuwait and throughout the region and they also indicated their unit here in the uae is actually considering a potential listing. We should have news regarding that within the next six months hopefully. And that is according to the ceo. Yousef all right, thank you for that. That is our markets and equities reporter. I want to talk about mastercard because the chairman and ceo sees a slowdown in u. S. Consumer spending as the current stimulus package dries up and with talks for a new round remain installed. He spoke exclusively to bloomberg about the risk of spending. Christ [indiscernible] [indiscernible] no one is traveling in the way they are used to. No one is out in public. We havent been managing our company through four stages. The first was containment. The second one was stabilization. Normalization, a big word for better than stabilization but not really normal. [indiscernible] it goes back and shutdownsnding upon and we are going to get back with vaccines the second half of next year. We will be looking at getting back to precovid phase. Consumer spending domestically is in pretty good shape. Wave passing through europe and the u. S. Will probably crimp some of that but travel is certainly challenge. People werele] using cash earlier and are using some form of accounts online. Data andd part is our cybersecurity issues. Everyone is going digital. It is kind of a mixed vibe. Impact plenty to unpack. Lets talk about trouble. You talk about the weakness we are seeing. I talked to a number of ceos at asked them how much are they traveling. They say a lot less. I talked to him ceo this week and he told me his budget for next year is going to be down than 30 . He thinks it will be more than that in terms of what they ultimately come into. When does trouble come back . When does business trouble come back and help different do you think Business Travel will be when it comes back . I think commercial travel will come back before business trouble. If you look at trends out of countries like china and japan we were seeing normalization in likenvironment, it looks commercial travel will come back more quickly than business trouble. Requiresnible] it also testing for travel. Singapore is experimenting with corridors with countries, as is china, japan, and australia is beginning to talk about it. Troublernible] domestic one million passengers a day. Phaset the stabilization there were down to 100,000. Precovid, we were at 3 million. Domestic travel is up. When i talkle] about different. Thise thing we are seeing time around in the u. S. Is you know like governments were cutting checks in the spring. At that does not look like it is going to happen. It may be a different story in europe. I want to get your perspective on the urgency. For is the drop dead date when your customers are like i cannot pay my bill anymore . I do not think about that. Thanks will be issuing. I am not the best one to give you the perspective on an exact date but i can tell you when stimulus checks were flowing into the United States consumer or other consumers overseas you can see Bank Accounts beginning to grow in size and you could see spending at the types of stores that even people were lower on the income scale the stories they were going to was better. Stimulus checks have dried up in the u. S. And elsewhere. Aboutneed to think again how to provide fiscal stimulus. Yousef that was the mastercard chairman and ceo. We still have 20 more ad on a date when we are fairly risk on. We will get to all of that and more. This is bloomberg. Nissan is said to be exploring a possible exit from its investment in mitsubishi, a mood that could reshape the worlds biggest auto alliance. Nissan could sell some or all of his stake in the struggling partner. A key part of the former ceos legacy. Driving theses cracks to such a wide extent . Remember this week marks the two year anniversary. [indiscernible] me. Se what is going on now is the aftermath. Turmoil,ad management doom and gloom with demand. [indiscernible] and now the is taking a fresh look at the partnership. They will look for ways to end its capital [indiscernible]. To orchestrate it four years ago. At over 2 billion. Going to try to resume the conversation in the coming hour because we are having difficulty with the line. We apologize for that. I was Senior Editor in tokyo and a very important story. In the interim other developments we are following around governments because globally they have injected trillions of dollars in stimulus to save the Global Economy from the pandemic. Atomberg new economy looks where the money has gone. Government unveiled over 12 trillion to disrupt the economic fallout due to covid19 and for a full recovery trillions more will need to be spent. In march the u. S. Senate passed a 2. 2 trillion stimulus bill. Nothing specifically for green interest. China as published and Ambitious Energy laden and efficient goals but it has rolled back undulations. Regulations. Measurese world green provide for less than 12 of coronavirus stimulus spending. Targeted at intensive Companies Like transport, industry, and oil and gas. One of the implications for the future. After the 2008 economic crisis, Carbon Dioxide emissions dropped 5. 9 in 2009 before rising the following year when the economy started to bounce back. The most Efficient Solutions for rebuilding the covid ravaged economy are those that reduce emissions. A study published in may cited clement with major benefits, such as clean energy research, disaster preparedness, and zero carbon transportation as a publicsector response. Ls policymakers climate top of mind the Bloomberg New economy form takes place this week bringing together Global Leaders to focus on rebuilding the economy in a postcovid world. The all Virtual Event can be watched online on the terminal and the Bloomberg New economy social channel on twitter and on facebook, something you have to put into your diary. Also up on the program, bloomberg size and scope. We will be looking at todays number, 130 3 billion. Find out why next. This is bloomberg. Yousef a check of the latest headlines. Pnc financial is said to be in bdasto buy see operations in the United States. We are told pnc it may announce a deal this week although no final decision has been made. The u. S. Regional banking space which has been under pressure. Has been seeking acquisitions. Is lookingeveloper for perceived drugs in terms of financing over the past two weeks adding to its challenges as it struggles with a cash crunch. The company has been on a death bench at the last year and this as well but the funding pipeline as dried up according to a data provider. It accounted for 14 of ever grand total financing in the last year. Said to be considering raising almost 5 million to buy an ipo. Itsre told it will list portion in frankfurt valuing the business at 24 billion, that would make it the biggest share sale on European Exchange in the past four years. A deal may change. Time for bloomberg size and scope. Every day we break down one superlative from our coverage and todays number 133 billion. What is behind that figure. Simone foxman. The income ofn is the top percentage of earners in that taxcity, and dollars at risk if rich people decide to head for the suburbs, the country sides amid the coronavirus pandemic. There are constantly new stories about how rich people are wanting to leave new york city because the city taxes its residents heavily. In fact the top 1 account for dollars. Overall tax there is a local tax levied on new york city residents. Obviously this would be a huge concern for the city, one of the Worlds LargestGlobal Financial hubs. If these people didnt leave, however one thing that may hold them back is education. We have seen a growing number of children born to these rich families. Educational opportunities may keep them in new york. More children born to these ultrarich families than any other market segment. It is expensive to have kids in new york as it is in many other cities. Yousef expensive enough to have kids anyway. What other notable real estate moves are we seeing, especially when it comes to the fact that covid causes rich people to look beyond cities . Moves in that you real estate market. Two that i will highlight. The first not caused by coronavirus. Hong kong buyers increasingly looking to the u. K. As a possible ownership destination, 42 of overseas property exhibits in the past six months have featured u. K. Properties according to one broker there. This after the British Government extended residency for up to 3 million hong kong allzens, but they are not looking at london, although that is a top destination. Which buyers are into Country Estates. They are seeing a huge rise in interest for Country Estates worth more than 50 million pounds. The number sold this year as gone up to 15. Last year it was one and bigger before it was just five. Watch new interest in that rarefied sentiment section of the market. Yousef definitely something to look at. Simone foxman. I want to circle back to a developing story out of this part of the world in terms of one of sheer intravenous top diplomats who passed away about 2. 5 hours ago. He is of course one of the key forces in the regional geopolitical equation. He is known for driving a lot of serious policies away from the west and more toward iran and russia. He had taken up the post in 2006, served for 15 years under the administration of the syrian president. To what extent that would lead ,o policy shifts in the region a between syria and the gulf countries. That would have major implications for the geopolitical premiums that may still be priced into quite an extent in the current price of oil but it is more of a demand story though in terms of oil prices. We are a high here at the moment off the back of news that the president elect joe biden is not going to be looking at a National Lockdown at this time. We are 1. 4 higher on wti. In terms of Global Markets it is a firmly risk on session. A lot of momentum to the upside coming through. A lot of key assets are paid for. S p about 1 higher. Morgan stanley, jp, and Goldman Sachs painting a positive outlook for equities. The call for 5500 by the end of 2021. Focus but it is not going to be Economic Data. This week will be all about the raging covid situation. That may lead to more distance away from that key 1 mark. In the bloomberg dollar index comes under pressure as you would expect and the rest of the 1 anddown a quarter of gold as well. Every asset class in many ways gets a lift outside of the u. S. Haven. We will take this up shortly. This is bloomberg. When you switch to xfinity mobile, youre choosing to get connected to the most Reliable Network nationwide, now with 5g included. Discover how to save up to 400 a year with shared data starting at 15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. Come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. You can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. Thats simple, easy, awesome. Visit your local xfinity store today to ask, shop, discover the latest on xfinity mobile. More voluminous hair instantly. All it takes is just one session at hairclub. Introducing xtrands. 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