Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240711

Minute. Veterans day yesterday in america with the bond market shut down. There is no other backstory in america right now than the pandemic. It has pushed everything aside, including this election. Francine i agree. We will have play more on that. Lets get straight to the bloomberg first word news. Here is rick a group to ritika gupta. Ritika the state of georgia will conduct a hand count a recount by hand. Joe biden leaves by leads by roughly 14,000 votes. The Trump Campaign alleged there were widespread election regulators, but there was no proof. President elect joe biden is naming longtime aide ron klain as white house chief of staff. Klain played a leading role during the economic and Public Health crises of the Obama Administration, leading the the job the job is one of the most powerful in washington. Dharna is set to take moderna is set to take a spotlight take the spotlight on a new coronavirus vaccine. It will allow a preliminary analysis of its effectiveness to begin. Moderna did not predict how long it could take a committee to analyze the data. International Energy Agency has cut forecast for global oil demand. New lockdown measures are being imposed around the world and the agency warns that the vaccine break will not be announced to quickly revive markets. That may delay an increase in Oil Production by three hyphens opec and its allies may delay oilproduction a hike in production by 36 month. This is bloomberg. Tom before the data check, Jonathan Browning reporting with his team on bnp paribas. When you run a hedge fund business, it is called prime brokerage. Deutsche bank jenna sink prime brokerage. Bloomberg has learned that bnp paribas in that transaction with Deutsche Bank is being scrutinized. Thats the language we are using, scrutinized, by french regulators over a fee to a middleman. This involves a former Goldman Sachs banker. I asked mr. You could have asked mr. Gnode about that. That would have made him happy. What does it mean when we scrutinize . Francine it means that, you know, innocent until proven guilty, but certainly looks like an investigation, tom. Right . Tom yeah. Francine if its the french regulators, i guess we have to wait and see. I know our reporters will call to try and figure out if there is anything more. We will know certainly from the regulators and a couple of weeks what that report found. Could be nothing, could be significant. Some of the biggest things start from nothing and become big. Others, we never really hear about, tom. Tom lets scrutinize the data. Its a quiet day in the markets. Red and green on the screen. Nasdaq 100 futures go up, its all fractional material. 24. Vix under the yield was 9. 97 before 0. 97. Day oil ebbs away. 97. Rling, 1. 31 save me. Francine i will save you by showing you burberry. Tom there you go francine the figure, sales were not great, but actually it was betterthanexpected. Sales dropped less than expected. Burberry gaining almost some 3 . It was gaining at one point almost 6 . Clear that the global stocks rally is easing. Investors assessing whether the equity markets are overheated. This on the backdrop of a deteriorating on coronavirus information. Tom cashmere scarf from burberry pricing in at 600. I can see it on francine lacqua. Francine three standard deviations. Lets talk about u. S. Politics. Tom whats it called . Francine joe biden has been named has named longterm aide ron klain as his white house chief of staff. Republican senator from oklahoma says he will intervene if the Trump Administration denies biden access to daily Intelligence Briefings by the end of the week. Joining us now to discuss a transition, to discuss the future of bidens administration, Chatham House e, leslie. S. Programm vinjamuri. When you look at this transition, you have the biden camp basically trying to take charge, going ahead. You still have people in government saying we need recounts, this is not done. How does a common person deal with these two sites . Sides . Leslie at some level, its probably what people expected from President Trump. Its clear quite how decisive the electoral result has been. Recounts for slim margins are not uncommon. We are talking about 20,000 in wisconsin, something shy of that in georgia. Team is biden campaign, doing now is very widely moving forward, trying to communicate. Tom said the number one story right now is the pandemic, the devastation it is wreaking. The biden team is clearly communicating its commitment to moving forward, to giving a steady message on masks, appointing the Coronavirus Task force. Ron klain dealt with ebola for president obama, really understands the significance of this and has worked with biden, has helped him for 30 years. Hes very well known, very well trusted. I think the signals coming out of the biden team are waiting to be given the key so that they go into the executive branch and begin that process of transition. Thank goodness that this is a team of people who know washington, know the executive branch, know the issues very well. If it was a newcomer to washington, the fact that they are being held up by the Trump Administration would be far more worrying than it is. Francine what have we found out about who will surround the president , president elect joe biden . Do we have any insight into who he will have in his administration . Leslie well, he has indicated that hes going to wait until thanksgiving. Presence are coming slowly presents are coming slowly for those of us who want to know. He has released the information on the Transition Team. I think a lot of people are assuming that the secretary of state pick is going to be susan susanenator cowan rice or a senator. I think the names are fairly, they are in circulation. Of course, things could change. One eye is always going to be on the senate and what happens in that january 5 set of runoffs in georgia. Very important point on those runoffs is that it means that effectively mother public and party and also the democrats are in Campaign Mode all the way through january 5. Thats going to affect what happens in congress. It might mean that we do not get any fiscal stimulus until after january 5. After january 20, which of course is not good news, and probably was not good news for the democrats if you look at what has happened in the house. Tom the question of the day goes back to mr. Klain. I have interviewed him a number of times. Ron klain is a brilliant kid out of indiana, worked with al gore, instrumental in getting Ruth Bader Ginsburg through the process to becoming a Supreme Court justice. Great. Is mr. Biden piecing together obama 2 . How do you respond to that . Leslie i think that, you know, if you are a president elect looking at a country where hundreds of thousands of americans have died and thousands are dying every single day and there is no plan for getting the country back into control, when you are facing rising geopolitical challenges from china and others, and any ofber of issues, and 4 years wrecking by President Trump on any number of democratic norms, what you do not want is to start with people who do not really understand washington, who do not have the experience or context. Certainly, a number of people with the deep experience are coming back on board. It looks like a very moderate team. We are not saying progressives rise to the top of the list so far. We will have to wait and see. Know, most also, you of the names that are coming up are experienced, but very much on the front foot with respect to their focus, energy. So, i think its good news. Tom mr. Lankford of oklahoma, deeply devout evangelical, has made very clear, this president elect needs an intelligent briefing intelligence briefing. As mr. Trump starting to lose his absolute core, conservative base . Leslie i think this is the question, this is the judgment that people like Mitch Mcconnell and others in the senate must be must need to make very soon. At what point are they holding back americas progress in the transition, beyond a moment where supporters are going to find this advantageous . As the numbers unfold, as the rest of the world begins to acknowledge and accept the president elect, Vice President biden, as the American Public moves forward, i think at some point, this is going to cost the republicans quite a lot. Its that calculation. What do you do to keep the base mobilized, keep energy in the party leading up to the january 5 elections in georgia . Control of the senate is at stake. That is incredibly important for the domestic agenda. Francine thank you so much. Leslie vinjamuri therefrom Chatham House. Up next, we speak with jane foley of rabobank, head of fx strategy. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Tom and francine from london and new york. Joining us to talk about u. S. And of course to talk about Everything Else is jane foley, rabobank head of fx strategy. I know tom has been very upfront, actually, dominating really some of the turkish lira moves ahead of them, wants to talk turkey. What does the joe biden election, what does a vaccine actually mean for dollar Going Forward . Jane i think particularly with the vaccine, it is good news. It is quite interesting, because we have seen since monday and that pfizer news, a lot of politicians and central bankers looking to push back, saying, look, we are in for a couple of backorders still bad quarters still. What we have seen from the markets since the Global Financial crisis and the advent of huge amounts of quantitative easing and cheap money is the markets ability to be sensitive to bad news. The blanket of cheap money has provided exactly that, a safety blanket. The market tends to look through bad news, perhaps a lot swifter, a lot quicker than what it would have done during the financial crisis. The market has a tendency to ignore the fact that we do have a couple of bad quarters priced in. There has been a bit of position adjustment since the movement, that rotation on monday, tuesday. I think it probably means that the likelihood we are going to see a big surge in the safe haven dollar is now far less likely. Francine what do you do with some of the other havens . What do you do with swiss , for yen . Jane one thing that is really quite interesting and perhaps the market might have mispriced it is the relationship between biden and china. The market can sense that. The relationship between china and the u. S. And his presidency will get worse, perhaps at least not until we get to the next u. S. Election. If there is a play by the electorate, suspicions towards china, maybe then he will become more hawkish. Looking at the conversations that biden had yesterday between the Prime Ministers of japan and the Prime Ministers of australia, they appeared to be trying to make him come out and make a stance about defense in the region. This is particularly worr isome to asian countries, the buildup of military hardware in china, for instance. That might mean we have pressure on the president to actually make a point, make clear his stance about china perhaps sooner than the market is anticipating. Perhaps he could be more hawkish. Tom jane, i want to talk about the movie have seen in pacific rim em. Just looking at dollarseeing dollar, dollartaiwan, they are deviationsstandard of persistent moves to stronger em currencies. Does that sustain or do you assume a regression to the mean . Jane for the time being, i think with the biden upswing and vaccine upswing, it is not a move i would want to stand in the way of right now. Certainly, it does seem there has been a big push back into em. We have begun to see that really last month, a big move back into em last month. People again taking a look at moving back into higher risk assets. That perhaps is in tune with that rotation trade in stock markets on monday as well. Unless we saw a Risk Appetite really taking a dive for the worse, i think thats a move that is perhaps going to be comfortably here for the time being. Now, the vaccine hope gives a big push to that risk on trade. I think that the Market Movers certainly more positive now. 1. 21. Uro goes 1. 17 to do these pacific rim nations, do they get upset about strong currency or do they just take it as it comes . Jane i think they would probably rather have weaker currencies. We are in an environment where inflation is really quite low, very low in many respects. In that environment, i think we can take it as a given that generally speaking, centralbank favor a weaker currency to get inflation back on track. Aside from that, there is this a big push of trying to perhaps relocate some businesses out of china back into the asian region. There will be some competition between. s some of those nations. Im mayt point of view, reckon they favorite. Furry majority of countries, talking about turkey here, but a weaker currency would be to their advantage, as long as it is controlled. Tom jane foley with us from rabobank. Lots to talk about, arguably the litmus paper of the International System on Foreign Exchange. We will continue this conversation at the beginning of the next halfhour. Negative, futures nasdaq futures go positive. Other than that, its remarkably quiet. Flightyually right now stronger, rather. Balance of power with david westin, the former Federal Reserve governor. This is bloomberg. Good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance. I have your Bloomberg Business flash. Bytedance has asked the Trump Administration to extend todays deadline to sell its tiktok business in the u. S. In august, President Trump that becausech be spun off of concern about american user information. The deal is not final. Siemens is forecasting a modest increase for growth in 2021 after a tough year for Industrial Companies due to the pandemic. Europes biggest Engineering Firm warns that some coronavirus related challenges remain. That could cause customer investments to lag behind economic growth. Wells fargo is considering whether to sell another of its businesses. Bloomberg has learned the bank is exploring the sale of a Unit Offering store branded credit cards. Wells fargo also is gauging interest in other businesses, such as asset manager and its student loan portfolio. Thats your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Tom, francine . Francine thank you so much. Lets look at the markets. Markets focusing on the rotation that we saw and treasuries after yesterday. When looking at treasuries, 0. 93 90. Burberry sales were down a lot, but it was better than expected. On the back of that, use burberry bounceback quite nicely, now getting some 3. 2 . The milliondollar question, did nde rally go far, too far a were markets overheated . Thats the main question that markets have been trying to figure out. Tom we saw yesterday may be a return to the kind of dynamics we saw previous but we will have to see day by day, to say the least. The data here red and green on the screen. The vix speaks volumes as we come in from a 41 level as well. On dollar weakness, jane foley with us. We will get back to her in a moment. Euro, 1. 1812. It will be interesting to talk to her about euro dynamics as we just looked at the pacific rim. Maybe we will talk about turkish lira as well. On the diplomacy of the United States with turkey, there is nobody better to speak with than the former ambassador on the changing of the guard in washington. Robert horn matz on our new diplomacy. Please stay with us worldwide. This is bloomberg. Good morning. \ francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Recovered somey of the lockdown after the third quarter. Much weaker than other wealthy nations have, highlighting that holy endemic has taken on britain. Hold the into because had on britain. What you thought the vaccine should get first. What is Boris Johnsons biggest headache right now . Is it the economy . Is it brexit . It seems theres so much talk of in downing street not going to plan with aids leaving an aids joining. I think his biggest headache is very close to home. For some time weve been hearing the Prime Minister once to appoint a chief of staff and it emerged in the british media his choice was lee kane, very longstanding advisor. Had been with him through his rise in downing street and his election majority in december. That was not to the liking of others on his party and lee kane has resigned and that has created a big storm. The government has said, theres nothing to see here. This is just a bit of reshuffling of the chairs within downing street. It is not really what the public wants to hear, what they care about. Whates to the heart of many people of question about this government, and that is who is driving it, what is the vision behind it, and where is the real management expertise . We are going to see the story have some cut through with the public, even if there are so many essentially, bigger issues like the economy, the vaccine, the relationship of the new white house there also vying for attention right now. Francine what does this exit in downing street mean for controversial but closest ally to Boris Johnson . Open question. Cummings has held on through a lot of ups and downs, including huge criticism when he broke lockdown rules before. He is very close to lee cain. The question is races is whether this very core group of hardcore brexiters that formed the vote lead campaign, really propelled johnson to his position of power, whether their influence over the government is waning now. A lot depends they gone how this plays out in the back pages of the tory party. Johnson is often accused of not keep enough to help mps them informed of his policy, help them understand what he wants, bring them along and get their support. I think youre going to have to look at how mps responded this and whether we see a backlash against cummings rising up out of this cain resignation. About thisascinated as an outsider. Theeading a telegraph telegraph, and they do it in more of a political way than your elegance, and they have team care. What is Carrie Simmons doing intruding on this process . She got upset about photos been the primeinstagram . Minister of the United Kingdom is dealing with this . Theres so much going on behind the scenes here, tom. We also have the appointment of a new communications had for. Ohnson in Allegra Stratton she was also apparently not happy with the cain appointment. Ui was lee have various factions within downing street. The important point for those of us who care about brexit in the economy and the vaccine is who has the most influence over Boris Johnson . Who is controlling access to johnson . What is their vision . Right now that is not clear. That is why this spat is a much bigger story. Tom i agree, but what is the response of the Prime Minister . Think we will have to wait and see what the Prime Minister himself says. In says something that he has not spoken up more on this so far. He is going to try to keep the focus on his policies but one indication of how worried they ae was when you had government minister on bbc saying we should be focused on the growth figures, which are pretty dismal right now. I think when the government is telling us to look at dismal economic figures, they are very uncertain about what is going on within downing street now. This is still playing out. We do not have a new chief of staff announced yet. The person that takes over that position will tell us a lot about the direction of this government. Tom as the world turns. Thank you so much. Extraordinary to read some of this, folks, and try to make sense of it from a distance. Lets get back to the Foreign Exchange market. Jane foley with us from rabobank. We did have about up to a 119. Major pair with some huge dynamics on the continent of europe. Lets start with square one. What is the fair value of euro right now . The appropriate level of euro . I think were settling into quite close to it. In the months ahead, we will see perhaps less volatility than this year. But maybe Something Like a 116, 120 range. I know you cited one to 17, 121 but i think that is a little lower. We have the important ecb meeting coming up. For the euro bulls, that might be difficult. The market is long euro already. I think that position could be a little under pressure at of the ecb meeting. Everyone is expecting more policy stimulus. In large part of the Dust Settling for the eurodollar will be trying to work out what is the direction of the dollar under biden, under the vaccine iss, but also i think there a lot to be digested in the eurozone. If we look back into this spring , one of the reasons the euro fundamentals were perceived as being really improved is the step for the european politicians took with the recovery find. As we move into this quarter, yes, a step forward and agreed for their budget, but there is still a lot of detail to be fleshed out with recovery find. Meanwhile, countries like italy having to pledge more physical response that already the weight of debt is hanging over the italian government. There can be a lot of fiscal pressures in the makes over the winter, which may not do too well for the euro. I think given the market is long, i dont think were really going to breach that 120 level. Think we will see francine jane, what happens to euro if there is a vaccine quicker than expected . Clearly, that will help the market looked through what is likely to be a very painful winter in terms of eurozone growth and the amount of cases we are seeing in europe right now. On the other hand, i think it is going to be something that asks the question, what happens to the dollar . The dollar is behaving mostly as , safe haven this year therefore, we can expect perhaps the dollar will soften. But that said, the market may look at a dollar in a more constructive way if biden really starts to flesh out a better plan with respect to coronavirus over the winter for the u. S. Economy. Theres a huge amount of factors in the mix, and i think that is what were going to bathroom between 116 and 120 for the next few months as the market does begin to fight its feet in these new regimes and looking at to the vaccine erratic and the biden era. Isncine brexit disruption arriving at your end. If you talk to industry lobbies said the disruption will come even if we find a deal because in certain parts of the economy theyre not ready for. What does this mean for pound . Jane it will still be political clouds ahead the pound. It is interesting. If we look at the deal the market was hoping for in terms of the euu. K. Trade deal, the market was expecting something quite comprehensive. Now if there is a deal in november, it is likely to be a skeleton deal. Large swathst is of the service sector, a little exposed. Anyans 80 deal with deal, the rally will be shortlived and perhaps really wont run very far, particularly everyone is expecting large cues of lorries, borders come january 1 with confusion perhaps for lots of different industries. And then we go ahead to what is perhaps going to be a very difficult new year for Boris Johnson. The public tired of these policy turns, tired of the headlines i did newspapers. Ultimately, will Boris Johnson remain in his job for another year or so . That is difficult to answer right now. Tom jane foley from rabobank, thank you. City,ur news in new york first word news, here is ritika gupta. President trump has offered two steps back as he tried to convict her in arizona. The state attorney general told foxbusiness it was highly unlikely the president would catch up when remaining ballots are counted. He also said he has found no evidence of widespread fraud the Trump Campaign has alleged. Hisbiden has stopped Transition Team with academics and former Obama Administration officials. Has stopped his Transition Team with academics and former abide administration officials. Liberals are concerned about the number of tech executives biden has included. The american pandemics longest increase in Coronavirus Infections appears voiced to get even longer. The nationwide rise in cases is now in its ninth week. Reporting more than 145,000 new cases yesterday an alltime high and it the sevenday average with deaths climbing above 1000 for the First Time Since august. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Us next week,ing light on we will focus i china, multilateralism important. We have a great interviews. This is bloomberg. We are well on her way to over 200,000 cases a day. Our Health Care System is already overwhelmed in many locations in the country and that is only going to continue to increase as the numbers add up. They are in as its already in the pipeline if we dont have some immediate action for people to distance themselves, sharing air with other people. Were going to have a serious crisis, much more than we have had already, just within the next weeks to months. Tom maybe the abrupt shift we have already seen from trump to biden. Mr. Osterholme on the billions the of the pandemic viruses right now at a task force and pharmacology always led by sam physically a bloomberg intelligence. Sam, a small item yesterday in the zeitgeist, which is all of these fancy drugs, rich world drugs. Hotelshotels of peter baylor commit poor parts of the world need cheap, traditional pharmacology. Which is it or do we do both . He hit the nail on the head. It might be possible for us to organize distribution of a 94cine needs a 70 degrees fahrenheit storage around the u. S. And europe, but im sure you cant really do that to the majority of the world where large part of the population live. You need to have vaccines that need basic fridges. Tom what is the state of traditional vaccine . ; china leads on that little bit sam china leads on that a little bit. Short Headline News yesterday saying there vaccine was 100 protective. We need to see the data. We do have those vaccines in development in europe and the u. S. Novavax developing a traditional vaccine, phase three in the next few months. The nave of europe is doing that. Andourse you have glaxo sanofi working on the traditional vaccine starting in 2021. Francine sam, what can you tell us about modernity . This week was all about pfizer. It seems we are expecting some kind of trial analysis from moderna. Pfizer andsurpass give us better news . Wouldoing beyond the 90 be amazing, therefore, unlikely. One case in one group extra or less early changes on these low numbers of cases, the statistics that come out. If they come out was something in the 80 to 90 range, i would be very happy. Francine time, i cant say enough about how much i love speaking to sam. He knows everything. We were talking about testing yesterday and the difference between antigen. Is it the same basis . One could be quicker . Is it just a different premise . Sam they do have slight differences. The basics are pretty much the same. When you look at the data in the earlier trials, some differences emerged. I asked pfizer why they had a slight difference. They said, we think we know the answer but we are not ready to discuss it yet. Some minor differences. Whether that means anything with the dead outcome, time will tell. The time difference between the two doses of pfizer and moderna are different. One is done within three weeks and the other is within four weeks. Will that make a difference . I dont know. Tom i am looking at the log virus. Of debts of this in new york state, which is doing fine, doing less than fine right now, do you as an expert perceive the deaths, the hospitalization, and the cases as the same as what we saw six months ago, eight months ago . Or is it a whole new construction now . Sam i certainly hope, sincerely hope it is not the same. Catching the infection is probably just as bad and worse down because so many people have got it and you can see by the data, we went from one million to 2 million and a 44 days and 9 million to 10 million in 10 days. Better at deciding and who goes to hospital. Younger people are catching it, which is not good, but at least they dont need hospitalization most of the time. The deaths are to do with much better Clinical Care and medical care with the few drugs who have shown some positive help. Francine sam, thank you so much. Coming up in the next hour, we covid. E tracking this is bloomberg. Tom 20 smallerng a operating loss for the current fiscal year. Leading to optimism. Regaining footing after the coronavirus hammered sales. Cutting costs, reducing capacity, restructuring the business. For great canadian is running into investor backlash. Some who own large blocks of the Casino Company and to vote against the deal. They believe the takeover offers is too low. Rising for the first, more than a year, the number of newly signed agreements jumped 33 from a year earlier. To make the deal, that offer a number of discounts and freebies such as free months or payments of rochus fees. That is your latest bloombergs newsflash. Francine in the last hour, we spoke with Goldman Sachs international chief executive and discuss the future of london making amidst the pandemic and unchanging u. K. Landscape. What is important is the u. K. View, regulatory point of infrastructure point of view, to serve thems are global market. The eu was a very important part of the business being that in london but not the only part by any stretch. There is going to be some shift a business here into the eu, that is what everyone seems to wind. Growhallenge is, how do we the Global Business and markets continue to innovate . We had this discussion a few moments ago about the carbon market. Time, maybein slightly different in china, the offshore market being situated. London has to continue to innovate. Plenty of opportunities for growth. There will be massive infrastructure financing requirements around the world. If lending templates role in that, you will have a bright future. Clearly, some of the activity will migrate onto the continent. Francine when you look at working from home, how much can you help staff in the second lockdown . Are you looking as some of your peers and herring some of the panic rework style, you know, buildings for the future . If you go back to march when we were moving into the full speed work from home environment for the first time, the question was, will it work . I think we all learned it did absolutely work. Going back, we knew this could function. The question is, for how long . Tom Goldman Sachs chief executive officer. On the data front, lets turn to the market. We are sort of reverting back to where we were before the vaccine election surge. We will have to see how that plays out. Into the weekend, not just thursday here, but into the weekend. Economics. Inflation report in the United States coming up later as well. Coming up in the next hour, looking for this, ambassador formats will join us with the changes on diplomacy, changes in america. Robert hormats. This is bloomberg. Tom this morning, the day after new prints by the president at the tomb of the unknown soldier, there are too many unknown unknowns. Over the president elect received his first intelligence briefing . When will the pentagon ordered troops out of afghanistan . When will washington understand americas hospitals, they are near full . There is a countdown clock, 69 days to the inauguration. Markets turn this morning, disinflation report at 8 30. Good morning, bloomberg surveillance. I am Tom Keene Francine lacqua. The ramifications she is looking at her terminal because the news is truly breaking right now, folks. This goes off of what we heard from lori patton yesterday and others. I United Kingdom response to the lessening of liberty in hong kong. Francine i was quite not surprised, but