Good afternoon if youre watching from asia. Welcome to bloomberg surveillance. I am Francine Lacqua here in london. We are looking to what is to come. We do not have cash treasuries, of course in the u. K. , we call it remembrance. If you look at stocks, cyclical industries, at the expense of technology shares. Crude oil is rising, textures are under preparing, including a dutch provider. You see some of the futures edging higher along with the contracts from the s p 500. We will have tons more of course on the market. Coming up, we speak with the former u. K. Prime minister tony blair, talking about the future of the relations, the countrys asdling of the pandemic, well. Now lets get to the bloomberg first word news in london with leighann gerrans. Hi, leighann. Leighann good morning, francine. Joe biden is warning not to put peace with u. K. And northern brexit. In jeopardy with. It is the latest sign that biden will not be the unequivocal supporter of brexit that joe biden has been. A threat to National Security includes retroactive action on deals that is complete after the provision. It is in line with similar rules seen in france, italy, and germany. Hong kong has accused four opposition lawmakers of abusing rules in beijing. Bey are asking them to patriots. The remaining opposition members of the legislative counselor earlier were asked to resign en masse. Vaccine aren tags becoming clearer. They have to be stored in refrigerated vehicles and once stored use within five days. They will build the Transportation Network from scratch. That will require massive investment and coordination. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Francine . Francine laura, thank you so much. Edginguity futures are higher. The dollar is trading relatively flat after recovering from steeper levels on monday when it sank to a twoyear low. Tuchman,s now is itay global head of fx at citigroup. How much of it that will actually last . Is it just concerns of technology, or is this a move that can stay . Itay we think this is a more fundamental and secular move. We consider to be more dollar bearish. The long trends overweight dollar assets and low hedge ratios coupled with a very vigorous 2021 Global Recovery should put the dollar very much on the back foot side. Francine what does it mean for some of the emerging markets that are of course tied together . . Been a think e. M. Has very unloved asset class. There are some highquality e. M. Currencies that we quite like. Mexico is a good example of one. We have seen decent rallies in max over the last few weeks, and we think that will continue. Is a weak level. There is quite a real yield in mexico. The cyclical recovery, including francine for this rotation, is at the Biden Administration . Are they overlooking some of the concerns that could hit us, you know, quite hard . Too much optimism about a smooth transition, and is there too much optimism that we will get a vaccine pretty soon . Itay look, i think the market is looking past some of these political issues, now that we are postelection. The fiscal stimulus, considering we did not get the blue wave outcome, i think the market is implying that the fed will carry more, so if we do get pessimism, if we do get a weaker recovery, you know, the virus situation could bee, markets proceeding with more monetary stimulus, and, again, that puts the dollar on a week foot. Weak foot. Francine what is the most strange pairing that you are looking at that is a good bet . Is there something significant out there that, you know, is being overplayed, and is there Something Else significant where you can actually make some money . Itay sure. We like the aussie dollar, where we think, again, you benefit from cyclical recovery, asia, much betterving a prognosis, handling the virus situation much better in australia, and doing quite well, and you have this sort of terminus of monetary easing which is quite likely in all the and new zealand. The aussie dollar has quite a lot going for it, so we are quite bullish on ozzie. The other thing we talk about is sterling. And, again, the binary deal no deal question. But if you are like me, looking at a lastminute deal, u. K. Assets, you know, very cheap on a global basis. A lot of investors are waiting to buy into the u. K. That could be a trade that could move quite a lot. Francine itay, what do you do with turkish lira . I have to ask you about it, because, frankly, you know, the last week was dominated by u. S. Politics and what is going on with the central bank. Itay turkey has been a very challenging situation, both for investors and domestically. At the moment, we have a bit of a bright spot and eve a return to what i call a more orthodox finance policy, a new finance minister, but again, the Economic Situation in turkey has a lot of challenges ahead, so, you know, i am not convinced at the moment to be very long turkish lira. I think the currency will continue to sort of depreciate, but, you know, the nearterm risk of some kind of much bigger crisis moment, you know, a bit lower. Francine thank you so much, itay tuchman there, global head of fx at citigroup. Too short a time to talk. Coming up, we speak to the former u. K. Prime minister, tony blair. We will talk about the future of u. S. U. K. Relations under biden the countrys handling of the pandemic and much more. Tony blair, coming up shortly. This is bloomberg. Administrationnt prepared to engage with the biden transition team, and if not, what point does it pose a risk for National Security . Sec. Pompeo there will be a smooth transition to a second trump administration. Mr. Biden i think it is an embarrassment, quite frankly. The only thing that how can i say this . Help thet will not president s legacy. Francine that was the secretary of state, mike pompeo, and president elect joe biden speaking yesterday. Pompeos remarks may have been but there have been trumps unsubstantiated remarks of voter fraud. News conference as president elect that he is moving forward regardless. Joining us now is tony blair, to talk about the transition, to talk about politics and multilateralism. Here is a clip from the former u. K. Prime minister. Thank you so much for joining us, mr. Tony blair. How should Global Leaders actually deal with this unusual transition period in the u. S. . Mr. Blair what they will do is let the american situation take , obviously, and they are going to treat joe biden as the next american president , which is why you find the leaders engage in having telephone calls. Engaging, having telephone calls. They will do more in the next few weeks, and they will act on the basis that they will be dealing with a new administration, what governments around the world, including ours in the u. K. , is how to establish a direct relationship, what issues they are going to cooperate on, and so on. Francine what does it mean for, you know, does that actually change the standing of the u. S. In the eyes of other leaders going forward, or is it an episode that will be, you know, dealt with swiftly and we can put behind us . Mr. Blair i think it will be the latter, honestly, because people have been come on the basis that, you know, there will be president biden, and that is the administration they are going to be looking at. All of the conversations i am having with governments, 25, 30 different governments around the world, they are operating on the basis that that will clear itself out, and they will get on with dealing a new ofinistration come the end january. Francine what does a joe Biden Administration mean for multilateralism . Mr. Blair there will be a reigniting of multilateralism in a number of different ways. I think you will find the Transatlantic Alliance get a boost back on the table as a central factor for the u. S. Administration. You will find a reengagement o. , and i think particularly on the Climate Change agenda, america obviously would be much more forward leaning, so that is going to be a big change. And then, you know, i think, in general terms, people will want to engage will want to engage with the administration to work out the administration, to see how people fit into that. People will think there will be more stability and predictability. They will believe that there is going to be a renewing of traditional alliances, and then for the rest of it, frankly, people will engage and wait and see a bit. Francine does it make a big difference or should it make a big difference to the current Prime Minister of the u. K. . Is it going to be more difficult, you know, to deal with brexit and then have a quick deal, a commercial deal with the u. S. . Mr. Blair um, you know, i dont even so, in the end, though donald trump is very much borisor of brexit and johnson became Prime Minister as a result of brexit, a trade deal will be result of quite a long negotiation, quite friendly come of whoever is in power in the u. S. The Northern Ireland situation, i think joe biden is very committed to that. He was always a big supporter of the good friday agreement, so that will be a major factor. But then i think there is also the issue of Climate Change, where, frankly, Boris Johnson has a real opportunity to engage with the american administration, because the u. K. Government, this is pretty much a conceptual issue within u. K. Politics, and britain has got the leadership at the international negotiating forum, in the next office is the december afterwards. And i think probably despite all the talks around brexit, i think there will be a genuine relationship, the u. S. U. K. Relationship, a deep, systemic relationship in our military, intelligence, you know, acrosstheboard on trade and business. And you have a very big issue, namely the climate agenda, in which this u. K. Government and this new administration would be aligned. And i think the sensible thing for the u. K. Government to do would be to very much focus on that initiative and get also, i thean opportunity u. S. At the moment, the u. K. Takes over for next year, that is also around issues like the global pandemic, for example, i think there will be a real opportunity there for the two governments to focus on the things we should be doing in the future to make sure we are better prepared next time. So i think, despite what people will say, despite history, and despite them being from different parts of the political spectrum, i think theres plenty for the u. S. And u. K. Government to work on if they want to come and they will want to. Francine tony blair, i know you have done a lot of work on covid19, and you just put out something called light at the end of the tunnel. First of all, are we dealing with track and trace, you know, lockdowns, covid19 in the right way and the u. K. . Mr. Blair kiddo, i hav i have my criticisms over mass testing, which is essential. I think the government is now on a path which should or probably, hopefully, will combine the four key elements to getting us out of this in a Sustainable Way and getting us back to Something Like normal, and that his vaccines, therapy, testing at mass, and data. The government should focus on vaccines today. If you look at vaccines from around the world, we have got some very positive catalysts, and i think the u. K. Will probably be using five or six different vaccines. One, the astrazeneca one is in a very strong position, so i think he will have a very strong capability on vaccines on therapeutic drugs, it is more difficult, because there is real issues around the manufacture of those, but you have the regeneron, eli lilly one in the u. S. , the astrazeneca one, and there will be more coming through. Those particularly for earlystage patients. That is important. You have a rapid test for mass testing much better. And there will be the issue of data, which i think will be dramatically important, assuming we are slowing down a bit on that, we need the same we could possibly have to record all of this information, but if we focus on those four things, you know, by this time in the spring, i think we will be in a much better situation. Francine is there a danger that we are focusing too much on a vaccine to quickly, and that ew wayly, you know, our n of life will have to stay a little bit longer until we are 100 certain that this vaccine will work, and that it will be distributed to enough people . Mr. Blair to my view, there are two criteria one a safety, the other is efficacy. If you pass the safety test, you will be 100 sure on that. If you pass the safety test. On efficacy, dont make best the enemy of the good. If it is going to reduce the disease by 50 , and we will be significantly normal, 90 , but even reducing by 50 , 40 , actually, you will make a big difference in your ability to control the disease. In my view, the vaccines, provided they pass the safety test and remember, the vaccines are being tested now, the main ones coming through now, are being tested on tens and tens of thousands of people. If you are clear on safety, get the vaccine done as soon as possible, because you are going to save lives, and you are also going to allow your economy to start moving again. But it is a big logistical exercise to work out exactly who gets the vaccines first and how you register each person and how you log the danger of that. Year,rankly, for the next both with vaccines and therapy gets, you have got to really good data, so you are catching what is happening for all of the people using these things over this next year. Your knowledge about the disease seems to be increasing. Francine tony blair, you mentioned the economy. What is the one thing you would change to make sure the economy worldwide is on a better footing, post covid . Mr. Blair well, the thing that i would change is obviously to try to coordinate some of the economic stimulus measures. The thing i would change his get the vaccines and therapeutics out the door as soon as possible, subject to safety. The only way you are going to deal with this is we are going to be living with covid for several years. That, i think, advanced salute is absolutely obvious. One thing we got to is that our public, certainly in the west, has thought the policy of government is to eradicate the virus. It is not possible to eradicate it. You are going to have to live with it. The challenge in living with it is it is significant and more serious than the ordinary flu, even if it is not the bubonic plague, as it were. The question is what is the right combination of things that allows you to reduce significantly the severity come and that is around vaccines and therapeutics. Francine thank you so much for your time, tony blair, the former u. K. Primus or peer to we will have much more on covid and the economy. This is bloomberg. Nomy. This is bloomberg. 48 offline sales will recover to a better level in one or two quarters. If we only look at online sales, i believe it has already returned to normal. Francine well, that was alibabas Vice President on singles day, saying blowing past last years record, however, cracking down the chinese crackdown has had a significant effect, alibaba leading the selloff. On the markets, the focus of courses on some rotations we and stocks are definitely advancing, and cyclicals, now cyclicals at the expense of technologies shares, i am looking at crude oil slipping. The picture is a bit brighter for u. S. Technology futures, and, again, the riskon sentiment of selling bonds in europe and treasury futures also are slipping. Coming up, it is our weekly show, etf iq europe. That is coming up next, and this is bloomberg. His is bloomberg. When you switch to xfinity mobile, youre choosing to get connected to the most Reliable Network nationwide, now with 5g included. Discover how to save up to 400 a year with shared data starting at 15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. Come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. You can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. Thats simple, easy, awesome. Visit your local xfinity store today to ask, shop, discover the latest on xfinity mobile. Francine welcome to bloomberg etf iq europe. Over the next 30 minutes will be your guide to everything you need to know about the funds and the flows. Francine a record rotation, defensive bets crash. We will monitor the moves. Is it time to buy . Lookine first up, lets at which countries and sectors have been attracting the money. Dani burger is here with the details. Dani