The winners. I asked all people to this day to stay calm. The process is working. Annmarie down to the wire, President Trumps lead in pennsylvania and georgia narrows. The president says the election is being stolen despite no evidence. Jay powell says it is a good time for the institutions of democracy to do their job. Cases top 100,000. A very good morning teal. It is 6 00 a. M. In the city of london. We just had her a weinberg join us in the last hour from new york city. I want to take a look at the election map. Where we stand right now. Joe biden, 264. Remember, the key number is 270. The thing to focus on is heavily near. It was a state that went for President Donald Trump in 2016 along with michigan wisconsin and michigan. Ining back this blue wall pennsylvania will be key to watch today and its 20 electoral votes. Right now, the president maintains a lead but as more mail in ballots continue to be counted, they largely scale towards the ride and camp. The democrats towards the biden camp. We us take a look at where trade this friday before the weekend. What a week it was. And we do have payrolls friday today. Futures, we are a little bit lower across the board in the futures market are though the nasdaq is paring those a little bit. It has been up some 9 . Dani burger had a great statistic. When i walked in this building 72 hours ago and the polls were closing, we were at 90 basis points. Clearly some reflationary trade coming off the table. We are a little bit higher but the dollar has weakened and a lot has to do with what happened with the fed. Lets dig a little bit deeper. What does it mean for the haven . Below 1. 04. The race for the white house is still too close to call and that is what everyone in the market will be looking at today. Dwindlingmps lead is while joe biden expands his lead in nevada. Talk us through where this race stands. You just got back from arizona. Today, it will be about pennsylvania. Key statea is a because fox news and Associated Press called it early election night. College the 11 Electoral College votes are included for biden. President trump has a razor thin lead at 1800 votes. Joe biden has been chiseling away at those doing well in urban areas. In clayton county, the home of john lewis,gressman a high proportion of the mail ballots they are counting are in favor of joe biden. A similar story in pennsylvania. When i walked into this building a few hours ago, donald trump was leading in pennsylvania by more than 40,000 votes and now it is around 22,000. Pennsylvania had 57,000 votes to count a few hours ago. They are counting about 13,000 votes per hour. We could see movement there tonight. The math is why we are interested in pennsylvania because the gap is narrowing in arizona though it has been called for joe biden. If it reverses and donald trump takes arizona, more is in play but if joe biden can secure pennsylvania, that would take joe biden some way towards the white house. Annmarie President Trump cannot get to the white house without pennsylvania. Cnn reiterating what you just said, ed. Arizona got back from and there is still some confusion. Arizona butalled some of the other networks have not. What is going on in arizona . Race still inght arizona and the Trump Campaign feels it can win in that stage. Joe biden leads about two basis points statewide. President trump has been able to last 24he gap over the hours, we got data a few hours ago that the margin has shrunk by less than a percentage point. What i am hearing from sources in the democratic and republican parties is the remaining ballots to be counted in arizona and there are about 300,000 of them are mailin ballots that were due saturday through election day. Those early mailin ballots are largely skewed towards the democrats. One republican strategist says he does not see a enough to can close therump gap though on paper he can. As you say, other networks have not called arizona and it is still in play. Annmarie it only voted once for a democrat. Since 1948. We heard from both donald trump and joe biden yesterday with very different messages. Walk us through that. Ed the message from President Trump is that there is some fraud and malfeasance taking place in a number of states though he did not present any evidence. He said the voting that came in early was in his favor and the votes that came in later were not. It depends on the stage. Theaw a republicans take lead. Some states will call the mailin ballots first and the democrats will take the lead. A contrasting voice from joe biden who basically urged that we as a nation must wait for all of the votes to be counted. He also brought up covid19. Became the first country to record more than 100,000 cases in a day. Is a keyhat covid19 issue. From theasting stances candidates. Annmarie Carl Weinberg telling david and i that it is the pandemic that will be driving the u. S. Economy. Ludlow, thank you for your time. Us from simmons joins ubs Global Wealth management. A very good morning teal. Hours since the polls closed in the u. S. And we still do not have a victor. How do you position yourself . It is a friday. How do you position yourself going into the weekend . Caroline a good question. It is such a tight race, the been dropping trying to grapple with what the outcome might be. I think it is important to think about this in the context of the bigger picture. The election is one factor affecting markets but we are also sharing about the thinking about the shape of the economic recovery and the pandemic. We are positioned for a risk on. And we believe that some a industries in the u. S. And the eurozone will do better as we get better news around the pandemic. Annmarie the movement on the nasdaq has been astonishing, up 9 . Though we are down 0. 9 with a little bit of weakness. Could we see more movement to the upside on these tech stocks . Caroline that sudden movement we saw was a response to the move in the bond yields. Our view is that with the bond yields coming down, it is in support of tech. It is an unwind of the positioning that people had suspected. The move isbulk of behind us. At times, it could continue to move higher as long as they continue to generate earnings. This is reasonable over the next 12 months. The valuations are a bit higher. For us, it is interesting to think about the areas that are benefiting from tech transformation in other sectors besides the pure tech sector. Annmarie will we see more of a rotation . The market seems to be positioning for a split government, a Biden White House with the senate maintaining republican control. Moment, its of the seems that is what markets are positioning for. , with do have a split congress, it means that some of the more extreme measures [indiscernible] the fears from a blue wave, what also perhaps some of the fiscal stimulus packages will get watered down a little bit. That is what we are thinking about in terms of positioning the rhetoric if we have a biden withdency the rhetoric china and trade issues should be a little bit less harsh. Good scope for industrials and materials. Annmarie and potentially for the yuan. I want to get your thoughts on the dollar. Stay with us. Here is a recap of the rest of the news. Laura the u. S. Is the first country to report over 100,000 daily coronavirus infections. According to johns hopkins, that brings the u. S. To more than 9. 6 million cases. The number of deaths is also climbing. Aremortality rates remaining lower than the first wave of the pandemic in spring. 58,000 newrecorded cases. There is a violet second wave of the pandemic. France started its second lockdown last week limiting movement and closing some shops. A mutation of covid19 that started in denmark. It is spreading to other regions of the country. Humansre 12 new cases of being infected with the new strain. The nation is talking to the World Health Organization which is said to be very worried that these findings. These could derail efforts this could derail efforts to develop a vaccine. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. , fed chairoming up jay powell says the economy needs more fiscal and monetary support. We take a look at what the fed head said yesterday. This is where we stand now, folks. 4214. A number of states continue to count including pennsylvania which we could get a decision on today. 20 electoral votes. And in georgia comest running. A dead heat and in georgia, stunning. A dead heat. It could come down to 9000 military ballots from overseas voters. Georgia has not voted for a democrat since 1992. All eyes on washington. Economic activity has continued to recover from its depressed Second Quarter level. The high rate of joblessness has been especially severe in the services sector. , africanamericans come and hispanics. The economic dislocation has impacted many lies. Therecent rise of cases in coronavirus is particularly concerning. We expect to maintain and accommodative stance until the inflation outcomes are achieved. And the demand for loans is very low right now. Companies are not borrowing. When i say that we are not out of ammo, im looking at a couple of our tools. The asset purchase program, there are a number of dimensions that we can adjust if we deem it to be appropriate. We like the job it is doing. We will have a stronger recovery if we could get more fiscal support. When it is appropriate. It is a good time to take a step back and let the institutions of our democracy do their jobs. Powell doesair jay not want to answer any questions about the unprecedented u. S. Election but he opened the door to a possible shift in the Bond Purchasing Program saying more support is needed. Caroline simmons is still with us. I dont think anyone was shocked about what hes dead regarding the election. What was eyecatching about the fed yesterday is that they did open the door to potentially more bond purchases. He said it does not matter about the white house but about the fed. Over the week, we have seen massive dollar weakness. Where do you see the dollar going . Caroline we think the dollar will continue to weaken. The Interest Rate differential against some of the major currencies has not moved in recent months and the dollar is overvalued. As we get a resolution to the election, that should narrow that should provide a little more clarity. The risk on hopefully will dissipate. We also expect moving into next year for a vaccine to be developed which should allow the dollar to continue to weaken over time. With the fiscal package potentially smaller under a administration, the dollar weakness could be slightly less than it would be otherwise. Annmarie who wins in this scenario in terms of the fx space . Currenciesome of the in asia could do white well. The singapore, dollar. We also see some attractive the currency. Annmarie we are waiting for the votes to continue to come in from pennsylvania and georgia. The one thing the market is starting to position it self for is a Biden White House but a split congress. And i was reading through your know and you said climate spending has diminished. Do you want to decrease that exposure . Do you think we could see come even with a split government, some movement on Climate Policy . Path in i think the terms of sustainability is still see strong support that widen wants to put biden wants to put in that down. Ion, a bit watered we have already seen europe announcing their Carbon Neutral plan by 2060. And the funds helping them to get to Carbon Neutrality. And china has outlined its plan. Is not just about the u. S. It is a global trend. We are very much behind the sustainability same and we believe it should be able to continue to run. Annmarie whether or not widen can get whether or not joe biden can get that plan through with a split congress is something we will be watching. Ubs globalmmons from wealth management. Hereu are just waking up, is where we stand in terms of the electoral map of the United States. 2644 former Vice President joe biden in low and 214 four President Donald Trump. 270 is the key each candidate would need to win. The race in pennsylvania is getting tighter and tighter why the moment. A lot of ballots coming in our mailin votes. They largely skewed democrats. 49. 3 with the president having a slightly, 49. 6 . Stay with us for more coverage, this is bloomberg. Annmarie 6 24 in london. Our coverage continues. Let us check on how the markets are doing facing this uncertainty. Here is Juliette Saly in singapore. It has all been about what we are seeing in japan. A 1994kei 225 closing at high. Of asia beingory on track for trying to see some positive momentum if we see a change in the white house. And the corporate story as well. Nintendo coming out with strong numbers today. We are looking at the msci asiapacific index. Pretty flat. Investors with uncertainty over the vote wanting to pull out of some of the other indexes. Chinas tech players in retreat. It is on track for its biggest weekly advance since the start of the year and is more than halfway through its recovery. Let us have a look at what we have been seeing with the global stocks performance broadly. It has been an extraordinary week. The msci on track for its best week since march. Asian stocks up some 5. 6 for the week. And more than a 7 gain in global stocks. Promising perhaps a more multilateral approach to trade policy which would be seen as good here in asia. Interesting. Starting tolearly maintain its expectation that joe biden will win the white house though it will have to deal with a divided government. Juliette saly from singapore, thank you. Nearly 6 30 in the city of london. We still do not have a decision out of the u. S. For former Vice President joe biden versus 214 for President Trump. He states, arizona key states, arizona with 11 electoral votes. Ap has called it. Maricopa county continues to count ballots. If joe biden can maintain arizona come he has a clear lead to the 270. Biden is up a little more than 11,000 votes. The thing about nevada, you have to be patient with nevada. Patience is a virtue with this stage. We will not get tallies until later today and potentially november 12. Let us look at georgia. Georgia is becoming a dead heat race. 49. 4 . See there, it may come down to military ballots. Less than 9000 military ballots from abroad could decide the state in play in georgia. Continuing coverage. We will be waiting to see where the electoral votes stack up. Stay with us. This is bloomberg. Annmarie welcome to bloombergs election coverage. Im annmarie hordern. It has really destroyed our system. And it corrupt system makes people corrupt even if they are not by nature. They become corrupt. It is too easy. We continue to feel very good about where things stand. We have no doubt that when the count is finished, senator harris and i will be declared the winner is. I ask everyone to stay calm. The process is working. We will know very soon. Annmarie down to the wire, President Trumps lead in georgia and pennsylvania narrows. The president says the election nobeing stolen despite evidence of widespread illegal voting. And jay powell says it is a good time to let the institutions of democracy do their job. Top 100,000. Ses a very good morning. 6 30 a. M. In the city of london. The pollsut from closing in the u. S. And we are still waiting on a decision. Joe biden, 264. Versus President Donald Trump, 214. A key state we are waiting on is here in pennsylvania. This is part of the blue wall that President Trump was able to win in 2016 wrangling it away from hillary clinton. Pennsylvania would be the last one. We should reiterate, there is no path for the president to get another four years without pennsylvania. Let us see what this is doing in terms of the markets. An outbreak on the equity market closing higher. The msci asiapacific up 0. 25 . We see some movement to the upside in asia. Nasdaq futures are softer. Though on the week they are up 9 . How far we have come from the 90 basis points when the initial results were coming in overnight on wednesday. And the bloomberg dollar index, a little bit higher but dont let that fool you as we are weaker on the week. We are waiting for the key states out of the United States and President Donald Trump questioned last night the credibility of the election. Bloomberg news reports that of illegalo reports voting. Of the votecture counting right now. I think you laid it out really well. In the intro. Right now, you would not say that donald trump has no path. He has a path here. It is not as robust as joe bidens multiple paths. Key stage. A is a the president has a nominal lead their but it is dropping and it mailins to drop as the ballots are counted. Especially those from around the philadelphia area which all lien blue. There is almost an expectation that the nominal lead could shift. And we are also watching for that in georgia. We are looking at a couple thousand, maybe up to 20,000 votes left to be counted known in the peach state. A lot of those in and around atlanta which is also a democratic area. It is also possible that joe biden could take a nominal lead there. We are talking really close so it is way too early to say anything. More paths though for joe biden at this moment. Annmarie and in georgia, it could come down to those 9000 military ballots. I know you lived in georgia and im sure that you are missing your house. What do you want to know . Clear indication of when we will actually know that . Yes. And the thing is that you could get to a point in this electoral process where you have a really good idea of who has won but it might not go official for a couple more days and that is where we might be pointing towards. Maybe sort of by the weekend more of these things come out. Pennsylvania we talked about this before the election. Pennsylvania said they might have to wait until the end of the day on friday to have most of their votes counted. It is not necessarily that anything exceptional is happening. You also mentioned and it needs to be pointed out that President Trump has pushed a lot of claims of irregularities though there is no evidence so far to back this up. When the Trump Campaign has been asked for the evidence, they have almost always not had anything to say about that. But there is the possibility of legal challenges to come. There is also the possibility of protests. And we are seeing some republican leaning protesters who have gone and made certain demands in some states to stop counting and in others to keep counting. There is more to come there. Signal that to there is the analogy, finale finality, but you might have a good sense of where this is going. Annmarie joining us now to break this all down in terms of the markets is marvin barth. Morning to you, friday and it is also payrolls friday. What a week it has been. And unclear of election on top of the uncertainty of the pandemic. What is your initial reaction to waking up 72 hours out from the polls and we still do not have a vector . Ctor . I it is the uncertainty. Uncertainty is one of the most difficult types of risks to deal with because it is by definition not quantifiable. In this case, as was just laid out come it does look like the advantage is in the biden camp though we do not know how long the process will last. We have been advocating that people take a cautious approach. So far, that has not been the right answer. At the entry levels where you are at right now, a lot of the potential for the a republicanh senate has already been priced in. Think that is the right call. Annmarie would you suggest given it is a friday and we dont know what the level of uncertainty will be for the weekend, you can see the futures they are coming off the highly that we have had. It down about a percentage point today. Will people take money off the table because of the uncertainty . Marvin that is typically the reaction that you would have in this case. People would just take the money off the table and not have to bear this uncertainty. A big issue is payroll friday. You have to look out what happens to the payroll today. It has been largely surprising to the upside despite covid. That has not been the case in other parts of the world. From a Foreign Exchange perspective, the dollar tends to be the place where people go not only for potential returns because the economy is doing better but also because they are increasingly concerned about what is going on in the rest of the world. Annmarie we are seeing the dollar on the week having its worst week since march. Will this stay . Islaryen this morning trading below 104. Can that continue . Let us put the dollar move in context. For most currencies other than an importanthat is distinction, we are trading and the same range we have traded in for the last four months. We have had a big event. But the dollar has not gone anywhere. With the yen, this is interesting which highlights the point about caution that i made. Ultimately, there is some concern about how long this will drag out and what the process will look like. And it makes sense that people start to diversify to others say favorites. And a key and crucial save haven haven yen and the save is the yen and the swiss franc. Annmarie marvin barth, thank you from barclays. Is warning that the pandemic could be the single greatest risk. And more election coverage continues. 214, trump. This is bloomberg. It is really our system. It is a corrupt system. And it makes people corrupt even if they are not by nature. Good continue to feel very stand. Here things we have no doubt that when the count is finished, senator harris and i will be declared the winners. I ask all of the people to stay calm. The process is working and the count is being completed. We will know very soon. That was democratic nominee joe biden and President Trump speaking on the state of the election. Donald trump took no questions after that press conference. Let us take a look at where we stand on the electoral map. Blue is for joe biden. 64214. Pennsylvania is the one to focus on. If joe biden wins pennsylvania, the race is over but without pennsylvania, President Trump cannot win. The commonwealth of pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes. It was flipped in 2016 from blue to red and it will be one of the looktates to watch as we for those votes to continue to come in. They had an unprecedented amount of mailin ballots. Eurosz at 1. 3 billion pushing the pandemic close to the most costly single loss event in its history. Cfo, giulio to the terzariol. When it comes to the covid losses, which lines of business it of businesses were the ones most exposed . Giulio good morning. When we look at the covid numbers we had for the nine months, the lines of business werewere most exposed across a few countries including germany and france. Wet was the geography where had the most Business Interruption loss. The other line of business we had significant loss in entertainment which is basically the line of business where we hosting events and there were a lot of event cancellations. This is where we saw the impact coming from the covid. Annmarie germany and france experiencing a second wave. With regards to the second wave, do you expect the wave of claims to be more or less . Giulio the claims are going to be significantly lower compared to what we experienced in the first wave. If we look at event cancellation come in reality we have already booked all of the losses considering that we were there would not be many events taking place. Are that point of view, we ready have a provision for that. Down, we see that the law is different compared to the ones we saw in the first quarter. And our exposure is reduced. From that point of view, we might see some impacts but it will not be comparable to the experience that we had with the lockdowns of the spring. Annmarie its just like you are a little more optimistic when it comes to the second wave washing across europe. How are talks going to acquire westpacs unit . Are they progressing . Giulio i will not speak now about specific transactions. Generally, i would say that our tolosophy on m a is we tried explain our reach in geography where we are already present. Costat we can have synergies. Tot is where we would like invest and australia we have a strong sector. , it is a point of view market where we have a Good Opportunity to expand our footprint and we are happy to do so. Annmarie i also wanted to ask what is going on in hollywood. Millions of euros were hundreds of millions of euros you have had to set aside for coronavirus claims. Has it been enough in terms of the Hollywood Studios . We still see the pandemic ravaging the u. S. Or is more going to be needed . Giulio we are thinking that movies [indiscernible] we are working very closely with a production company. The point might be where Production Companies will be shutting down and that will create additional losses. But we are in close contact with our customers. In that line of business, we would expect that a second wave or third wave will have a different impact from what we saw in march or april. Lot of this has been going on forward, young wont cover those covid related costs. Fromhas been the reaction some of your longstanding clients to this . Giulio i would say they understand this. When we talked to a business partner, they know it is fundamentally not possible for an insurance company, not just offer pandemic coverage. From a mathematical and statistical point of view, it is not possible so there are no issues in the conversations we have with our customers. Annmarie thank you so much for joining us this morning, the allianz cfo, giulio terzariol. It is payrolls friday. We heard from jay powell yesterday and we are still waiting for the u. S. In the united waiting for the vote in the u. S. Futures are lower here in europe as well as in the United States. We are still waiting for the key vote on who has won the u. S. President ial election 72 hours after the polls closed. 64, joe biden. President trump. Pennsylvania is the key. 20 electoral votes. If joe biden wins pennsylvania, the race is over. Does not have a path forward without pennsylvania. This is bloomberg. Good morning. Our 2020 election coverage continues. Just over an hour away from the start of trading. In the futures market equity gains we had this week hit a pause. Dani burger is taking a look at this. Breadth ofw the this downturn occur as we got to the end of the asian trading. Punch out. He tgif, we may see equity markets and cash trading close when we get that news. After such a huge rally, it may ittime for investors gives them an opportunity to look at their her folios and reassess and rebalance. What we are seeing today with some of the reversal of the action that we saw a earlier this week. Annmarie we are down 0. 9 but on the week on the nasdaq, it 9 . Stunning, up nearly 3 off, a new alltime high. Dani when we talked about the scenarios for what the election uncertainty, a Gridlocked Congress worse case scenarios. You would not get that vibe looking at the market. One thing that is clear is that this was a return to the old trade is stimulus back in the hands of the fed. No longer waiting on stimulus from congress. I have should not surprise anyone paying attention to markets in 2020. It is what works in this lower for longer environment. Back. M was value faded. The remarkable thing is that momentum was back. Value faded. That carriedsdaq it longer and higher. This is reverting to what has worked for most of 2020. Dani burger, digging through the moves of the week. This is the politics. If you are just waking up, here we are on the electoral map of the u. S. And a reminder that votes are still being counted. 264, joe biden. The states you need to look out for starting with pennsylvania, 20 electoral votes. Donald trump is leading. 9. 6 versus 49 quake 3 . Mail ballots are skewing largely democratic. President donald trump cannot win reelection without pennsylvania. Were to winiden pennsylvania today, game over. Look at what is going on in georgia. 16 electoral votes in georgia. This race is a dead heat. Versus 49 point 4 . And georgia has not voted for a democratic president since 1992. President trump is a leading by a small margin. It could come down to military ballots. Those from000 of overseas. More election coverage continues. The race to 270. Stay with us. This is bloomberg. And good morning welcome to Bloomberg Markets european open. Trumps lead in pedroia and pennsylvania narrows. Counting continues in battleground states. Joe biden appears to pull ahead. The president says the election has been stolen despite no evidence of illegal voting. Gains of 9 on the