Street audience. It is really important to look at the levels here and not the abrupt changes day after day. Moments ago, s p futures 3500. Dow level, 29,000 plus. Nasdaq 100 level, 12,000. That is a market that is adjusting. Jonathan the nasdaq up 9 since election day. Three days, nasdaq futures up 9 . Can you make sense of some of this price action . Tom absolutely not. Jonathan seeing the equity market up this much is pretty impressive. Tom we can pontificate about it. Lisa will have all of the answers about why we are moving up. Just in the last hour, yields come in. Of all of the political debate this morning, the one little tea leaf was in georgia. Mr. Biden narrows the gap with 96 counted. Tom you mentioned jonathan you mentioned the bond market. The company continues. Lisa if you want a neat narrative, you can but fun of me and tell me it is wrong, and it probably is, but i think the narrative of the day is that the fed its going to have to provide more support to the economy because fiscal stimulus isnt going to be there the size of people expected because of split government. That seems to be the presiding narrative, and that is good for big tech. Talking of the election, georgia is expected to give an update around 10 30 a. M. Today, possibly before, when he secretary of state is expected to speak. These are the key states. If biden wins either of these, it will put him over or at the 270 mark for electoral votes. He is currently at 264, versus trump. Of president. We get u. S. Initial jobless claims. They are expected to come in a little bit lower than yesterday, but still, 735,000 additional claims expected to. Be filed still incredibly high expected to be filed. Still incredibly high given the fact that we are supposed to be recovering. Fed chair jay powell is speaking after the 2 00 p. M. Policy decision. He wont weigh in on the election, but what will be the criteria for them and thing up potential stimulus and the monetary response . Jonathan the bank of england making their move earlier this morning. This is the next two hours on bloomberg surveillance. I will go through the markets, and lisa will tell you why we are here. Equity futures with a big bounce this thursday again, up 58 on the s p we advance even more on the nasdaq. In the fx market, just some dollar weakness in the last 24 hours. Eurodollar reclaiming a 1. 18 handle. In the bond market, this curve is flatter. Down two or three basis points to 0. 736 2 . That is the story of the price action. Much more in a moment. We wake up once again to the same headlines that counting continues. In many ways, the contrast of two candidates on the campaign trail and very much so still in the aftermath. This was Vice President joe biden urging calm. Mr. Biden after a long night of counting, it is clear that we are winning enough states to reach 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Im not here to declare that we won, but i am here to report that when the count is finished, we believe we will be the winners. Wasthan the president tweeting, including this tweet right here. We have claims for electoral votes purposes the state of pennsylvania, which will not allow legal observers. The state of georgia and north carolina. Additionally, we hereby claim the state of michigan. There were a large number of secretly dumped ballots, which is been largely reported. Twitter flag to the last part of that tweet as potentially misleading under its Election Security efforts. This is been an ongoing story for the last couple of days. Tom of course, a huge claim yesterday as he claimed pennsylvania and selected other states as well. We will get to it now, with markets on the move and times so compressed across all of this historic morning. Kevin cirilli joins us now. Ive got about eight ways to go right now, but i am going to end up with your pennsylvania. Are you waiting for pennsylvania, or will we not get there . Kevin it might not come down to pennsylvania, to be frank with you. I think when clark county,evada reports their ballots that is six electoral votes that could push joe biden two 270. You mentioned georgia, where the president does still have a razor thin lead, but that also push joe biden over the edge. In terms of what i heard from my sources yesterday on the president s reelection campaign, this is what they feel is their past to 270, which is increasingly become a more narrow. They would have to get a reversal of sorts in a state like arizona, where they feel there are additional votes that will trend in their direction. Secondly, that the votes that were cast on election day and are able to be counted by law, up until three days after election day, that they not be ultimately counted. They feel they have a legal case and would be able to make their case to the supreme court. However, this story is quickly evolving. I think lisa laid it out in terms of the timeline. Ive got my eye on georgia and nevada. It could be a very interesting day, where you have joe biden reaching 270 in the electoral count, and no word for president trump, or we could have major moment for both. Tom i need to identify for you that what you heard from Lisa Abramowicz was what we call a neat narrative. What i would notice here is arizona is really open to debate. Some news organizations are saying arizona is for mr. Biden. I am going to be direct, others arent. That is why you see confusion over where the electoral votes are right now. Jonathan i think this is really important. Depending on what network you tune into this morning, you might see 264 next to joes name, or 253, because some people still havent called arizona for Vice President joe biden. We know what donald trump would like to see. What do you see in the numbers . Maria specifically as it relates kevin specifically as it relates to arizona, i go back to when i spoke to ronna mcdaniel, the chairwoman of the Republican National committee, and i asked what state keeps you up at night. She mentioned arizona specifically, and went on to tell me on the record, but offcamera, that it would be very difficult for the president to win if he didnt carry arizona. County, ourmaricopa ricky davis, the former Campaign Manager of john mccain of zona in 2008 of arizona in 2008, he laid it out flatly about maricopa county, and how that is the swing county, so to speak, of this state. The president played well outside of that area, but he really took a political gamble that he might be paying the price for if the spread in maricopa is still what it is. That is the suburbs, the swing voters of that state. Tom kevin cirilli, thank you for being here with us on an early morning, and i am sure we will hear more from our chief washington correspondent. Right now, joining us is david bailin, Citigroup Global head of investments. I want to cut to the chase. You focus on gridlock. It the gridlock forward different than the gridlock of recent years . David in terms of economic policy, probably not. What we are going to see i think is some level of stimulus package. It wont be what it would have been had there been 100 controlled by the democrats, but there will be a package. If using about the trifecta from a stock standpoint, you have the fed holding rates low for the next two and a half years, youve got some level of stimulus in january, and if got four different vaccines that could be announced between the end of november and january, and they are being made in hundreds of millions of doses by each of the companies. The combination of knowing that there would be an end to the pandemic in 2021, stimulus in the market sometime in january, and knowing who the president is is news that can propel the market higher. I believe if the combination of those things believe it is the combination of those things happening now. Lisa the market is not a monolith, and right now we are seeing the doubling down on the Growth Stocks and tech stocks, and not the reflation trade people had been hoping for. The neat narrative we were talking about is the fed is going to have to provide more support. Rates are going to stay low, and we are not going to get that faster growth from a higher fiscal support package. Is the neat narrative correct, or are we going to get that stimulus in the form of Economic Growth and recovery as the vaccine gets implement it gets implemented . David i think that narrative is actually wrong. Youve got an enormous tailwind here. Youve got basically between 12 and 15 of the Global Economy shut down in terms of travel, leisure, retail, education, health care. Take a look at consumer demand in the united states, higher than it was in december 2019, before we turn that back on. So theres a tailwind in that way and in terms of the velocity of money, which will take place when everyone leaves their house. It is shocking that the nasdaq is up this way, but that is the defense of trade. Rates down, technology up. That tells you that people are still scared. Once we see that change, that will be indicative of what will happen over the next couple of years as the regular market comes to bear. Up, asn great to catch always. David bailin of citigroup. You heard it there, the defensive nature of the equity market move. Hard to put your head around when you see the nasdaq on the s p up as far as they are, but there is a defensive tilt to the equity story. Tom you have seen it with yields coming in as well. Frankly, you can look at the yields in europe as well. Beneath the radar, the german tenyear is really on a difficult time, so it is odd. Equities up as yields come down. Jonathan from london and new york this morning, good morning. It is the longest tuesday night ever. It is thursday morning. Equity futures are rallying. Alongside tom keene and Lisa Abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. Joe biden has just joe biden is just one battleground stayed away from becoming the next president of the united states. Biden already won two key prizes, the states of miss coston of wisconsin and michigan. His best chance appears to be in nevada, where he holds a lead over president trump. For the president to be reelected, he would have to win all of the battleground states that have not yet been called. The tightly contested election is putting more pressure on the Federal Reserve to support the economy. Policymakers are not expected to announce a shift today when they conclude their two day meeting, but chair powell may hint at coming changes to the fed bond buying program. Chances of aggressive fiscal spending for households and businesses faded when a democratic sweep did not happen. Regulations take effect in england today. They will enforce the closing of gyms, and nonessential shops. Parliament gave its blessing to the new rules after Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned that england faces risk of mortality on a grievous scale. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Mr. Biden my fellow americans, yesterday once again proved that democracy is the heartbeat of has beenon, just as it the heartbeat of this nation for two centuries. ,ven in the face of pandemic more americans voted this election than ever before in american history. If we had any doubts, we shouldnt have any longer, about a government of, for, and by the people. It is very much alive in america. Here the people rule. Jonathan jonathan former Vice President joe biden speaking in delaware. Good morning. The counting continues into thursday morning. Alongside tom keene and Lisa Abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Live on bloomberg tv and radio, here is a snapshot of the price action. On thefutures up big nasdaq, on the s p. In the fx market, dollar weakness the story. Just bear in mind, the information we have is this race is still too close to call. The market is trading on the anticipation that you will have a Biden White House. That is not what we are suggesting. That is just what this market is trading on, especially the weaker dollar story off the back of that. Look to china. The euro stronger this morning. The chinese currency has been on a tear over the last week or so, relatively speaking. China doesnt often go on a tear. That currency has been strong, strong, strong. Tom it is 6. 61, the chinese yuan. It is transpacific miles away from seven yuan per dollar. Mr. Biden has almost 72 million votes. 2. 5 ahead of the president s popular vote at 68. 3 million. , guess that is a Biden Victory and that is just speculation. We will have to see how the vote works out. But we do know is there were thoughts of a blue wave. Weve had a number of analysts guests who have been very strong about, maybe not. No one has been more vocal about the lack of a blue wave then terry haines of pangea policy. We are thrilled he joins us this morning because he absolutely nailed what is beneath the headlines. In what way did the blue wave fail . Terry i think the blue wave failed frankly because it is a classic example of people talking themselves into what they wanted to believe, combined with poor supporting information to back it up. There is an underestimation, as you can see from the election results, of just how much support there is for president trump, and beyond that, how much support there is for republicans generally, and secondly, for a lot of the unknowns that i was pointing out in the weeks before the election, including the potential effects of things like lockdown effects and battlegrounds, and the effects of constant civil unrest and the effects of crime in a variety of cities. Andle want what they want, the country is certainly well people, but these believe what they believe, and they are coming out to back it up. I think people ought to take away from this, dont talk yourself into the coastal narrative, because that is not where it is. Jonathan it is really important to talk about turnout. Turnout was huge, and over the last four years, the democrats just assumed that the bigger the turn outcome of the more it would play into their hands, and that didnt happen. What is the lesson from that . Terry the lesson from that is very simply that democrats have an awfully long way to go to centrists reach the and the People Living in the heartland. The other argument that i would give you is that republicans have a very long way to go before they reach the coasts. The narratives have been built tor the last 20, 30 years, be so different that any candidate that wants to bridge across that is going to have to start thinking outside the box and not relying on the lazy narratives that have built up, and try to figure out new, practical ways to get across that cap and actually excite people about what is going to go on, but more importantly, deal with their economic circumstances because that is not being dealt with by politicians. Lisa that is the future. I want to talk about the present, which is the assumption that joe biden will become the next president. That is the assumption baked into markets. Arizona a feeling that is already for biden. It has been called for him. And yet there is a lot of question about this, certainly with so many votes not yet counted. Do you think the call was too early calling arizona for biden . Terry do i think so . Noh, for one reason only, disrespect to anybody who made that call. There were clearly lots of votes out there that had not been counted, and i think arizona broadly speaking was treated very differently than, say, pennsylvania or michigan, where similar sorts of numbers were out there, and you knew that there were still lots of votes , and yet the networks and ap didnt call those states early, while they did call arizona. I think that was a problem. Tom we have massive breaking news, but terry haines, i just got to ask, what did you learn about florida . [laughter] terry what i learned about florida . I didnt learn anything about florida, frankly. Comeught that vote would out pretty much the way it did, and never try to shove socialism down the throat of people who fled from it. Jonathan terry haines, quite a strong finish there. Thank you very much. Terry pushed back against those polls so much over the last couple months. Thank you, sir. What is happening in the United Kingdom right now is everything chairman powell would like to see, but wont happen in the united states. Early this morning, the bank of england increased its qe, its bond buying program. They brought that forward because chancellor sunak was making the address he is making right now. The news from that is that chancellor sunak is extending the furlough Wage Support Program through march, the government paying 80 of wages for those who have to stay at as the unitedgh, kingdom goes into lockdown today. This is the sequencing that i think is so important. The bank of england and the chancellor are in lockstep. It is orchestrated perfectly. Bank of england makes its move. The chancellor comes out and extends the wage support into march. More death. The chairman of the Federal Reserve will go into that News Conference and plead for more fiscal support. Who is going to answer that prayer . Tom we have no framework that i can see of march 2021. I was stunned when i saw that headline. Yes, we are distracted by an election, but after this election, whoever wins, are we in any way looking out to march of 2021 . Theres no way i see that. Jonathan we are trying to get to friday and may be here from pennsylvania to get a vote tally in the united states. In the u. K. , there is a lockdown for months into early december, and a chancellor providing wage support out to march 2021. From london and new york this morning, good morning to you all. The voting continues. Our coverage will continue. On Bloomberg Radio and tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. I feel like were forgetting something. Let me check. Xfinity home gives you peace of mind from anywhere with professionally monitored Home Security built around you. No, i think were good. Good. So when youre away, you dont have to worry. The tent. We forgot. The tent. Except about that. Xfinity home. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Hey look, i found the tent get xfinity home with no Term Contract required. Click or call today. Youre choosing whento get connected to xfinity mobile, to the most Reliable Network nationwide, now with 5g included. Discover how to save up to 400 a year with shared data starting at 15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. Come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. You can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. Thats simple, easy, awesome. Visit your local xfinity store today to ask, shop, discover the latest on xfinity mobile. For our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance, live on bloomberg tv and radio. Alongside tom keene and Lisa Abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Good morning to you all. It is a race that is still too close to call. It comes down to georgia, nevada , north carolina, pennsylvania, maybe even arizona. Equity futures up 62 on the s p 500. We advance 1. 83 . Dollar china lower for six straight days. That is a strong chinese currency. In the bond market, curve flatter. That is the story again this morning. Yields down another two basis points to 0. 7429 . What a turnaround in the bond market in about 48 hours, from near 1 down to 74 basis points. Tom i dont have the number in my head right now, but it is roughly a 3. 5 standard deviation move from a higher yield to that 0. 74 29 we are at right now. I will say the bloomberg string of blinking red and green is way more active than it was 24 hours ago. Futures up 63. Emily wilkins is used to the marble halls of capitol hill, territory from the gentleman from delaware. Right now she is in wilmington, delaware, with mr. Biden and his team. What is the plan this morning . Emily the plan is to keep waiting and remain calm. The Biden Campaign is looking for results today to potential he come from nevada. They are also keep an eye on pennsylvania, as well as georgia. Holdsens lead in arizona those statesy of will hand him the presidency. Lisa everyone is focusing on when we will get an answer there , but everyone seems to assume that the senate will remain in republican control. Is that true . Emily it is not a bad assumption, but there is still a narrow chance that democrats can pull off a 5050 senate next year, which would give them the upper hand if they win the white house. What we are looking at right now is georgia. Georgia has two senate races going on. We are waiting to see if one of them between avett purdue and jon ossoff goes into runoff territory, if purdue pulls in less than 50 of the vote. The other one we already know is going to be a runoff. We are not going to know the results of that until january. Once again, the theme for this seems to be patients. We are cost seems to be patience. We are just going to have to wait. , aathan the dollar index much broader measure of the u. S. Dollar, session lows, the lowest since may 2018. That dollar weakness has really started to flush through the fx market in the last 24 hours, largely on the anticipation from the market perspective that you will have a Biden White House and a more predictable, may be easier, softer Foreign Policy approach, which speaks to the chinese currency strength we have seen, too. Tom the acceleration is really exceptional. We are about ready to get a 103 handle on yen. But relative, the euro is more stronger than yen, with euroyen breaching 123. 09. Would pick up south korea as well, if fantastic proxy for global trade. Trade is the story here. I know at this point it is too early to really extrapolate out things too much. Votes are still being counted. Market participants are in the business of doing exactly that. The conversation is around that predictability around the trade story. If you have divided government, as the president has demonstrated over the past four years, what you can do once you have divided government is you can do things with trade without congress. That is really important. That thise a lever president will be pulling. This market assumes that person is joe biden. Tom and again, the correlation is tighter than they were 24 hours ago. We will keep you up to date with that. Emily wilkins, thank you so much , with the biden camp in wilmington. We have not heard from the trump camp this morning. Right now, we do hear from wells fargo and their head of microstrategy head of macro strategy, Mike Schumacher. I am going to dare an open question. What is Michael Schumacher looking at here, at 7 30 4 wall st time . We think a blue wave is being priced out of the market. We think it was overpriced prior to election day. Now it is probably underpriced. We just heard the discussion about both georgia elections potentially going to run off. That puts the blue wave back in play. Yet weve got the 10 year yield down to 74 basis points now. It has really been an incredible move. We think some of that uncertainty is going to come back. As markets start to think more about the possibility, maybe there is a sliver of a chance it goes 5050 in the senate, and perhaps joe biden wins the presidency. It is not good for the bond market if that happens, so we think the move has been to extreme. Jonathan is that a trade you want to make or that you want no part of right now . Do you want to lean against that move or just sit on . The sidelines sit on the sidelines . Mike i think you sit on the sidelines. Theres just an allaround rally in the bond market, and you can see the lawyers getting fired up right now. We kind of knew that would happen. I think at this point, you want to [indiscernible] Jonathan Mike schumacher of wells fargo. Just a little bit of disruption on that line. Lets talk about that bond market. Bid came through in a huge way yesterday. This market cut wrongfooted after the massive amount of steepening we had monday into tuesday. What do you think of what mike had to say . Lisa i think it is very interesting talking about how long term, this might be the wrong play. That yields may go higher, especially if there is contention with respect to who has control over the senate. If you look at fiveyearfiveyear breakeven contracts, which is what i am doing now, they have contracted dramatically in the last two days. Basically, we are pricing in a 1. 7 brinson a 1. 7 inflation rate. I am looking at this and thinking, this is the trade, and yet we are still going to get a vaccine, right . Im not sure exactly what people are pricing in here. I think really, we are going to find out from the Federal Reserve today how willing they will be to back debt markets through the turmoil. Jonathan rick rieder of black rock was on our network yesterday talking about exactly that. This market can only deal with one thing at any given time. We are dealing with what is in front of us come accounting. The counting continues for the election. After that, youve got to talk about what is happening elsewhere. Covid19, the shape of the cycle, the trajectory of the recovery going into 2021. Tom greatbatch down today, i think for three months. The stunning news out of the u. K. On a march continuance. I would notice, published moments ago at deutsche bank, it is scary. T channels ferro. That is what is going on. They are talking about the growth outperformance of the pacific rim. Long australia come along e. M. , and there is a growthiness here that folds into election 2020. Jonathan it comes right out of china as well. The recovery has been much better there. Some people assume it is more secure. I believe Mike Schumacher is back with us. He joins us from wells fargo. As we move past the election come of the other issues on the horizon, your thoughts on them. I believe we have lost that line again. Schumacher of wells fargo is not going to be with us. Mike, if you can hear me, my apologies. I will take the blame for everything. Lets pick up on the equity market. Growth outperforming. The nasdaq absolutely flying over the last couple of days. If you compare it to the russell , the nasdaq up 3. 8 5 yesterday. Russell was flat. That is the story of the last couple of months. Tech has really struggled. Yesterday, for some people it was just clearing event risk. Once you get past that, you fade some of the moves we have seen. Tech underperformance, you just reverse it all. Tom bring up the vix if you can. We do it all here in realtime. Index, bringrket up a fiveday chart, a sevenday chart. Whatever is a neat narrative for lisa. What is so important is the vix was a 40 the last time you are i had a beverage, and now we are down to 26. 54. Ginormous taking out of uncertainty. Jonathan people priced in huge steepness of the volatility curve going into december. They are pricing that out. Given what is playing out before our eyes right now, some people have called arizona, some people havent. I handful of votes in places like nevada to decide this thing. I wonder if this market had it right two months ago when it was talking about the Selection Process going on and on for several weeks. Lisa i think the think the question is, are people too complacent about volatility . The one take away this week for me is the fed. I know there is the election, but because there is the absence of a blue wave people were expecting, we are looking at a bet on the fed backstopping markets. The russell 2000 has under par moved has underperformed dramatically, and yet there has been an incredible rally. Yields coming in the most, to since 2018. This is a bet on the Federal Reserve backstopping the credit markets because no one else will. The consequent is that its sitting of that the consequences of that is significant. Jonathan are you doing it that special today . Tom never has it been more of the radar, but i think it will actually be very nuanced because of the actions we see in your United Kingdom. The United Kingdom, with all of the uproar i read in the British Press and the great work our team is doing in london, at least there is a plan or an attempt at a plan, with our nonfederalism,. We dont have a plan jonathan is ae put this on there plan or an attempt at a plan. With our nonfederalism, we dont have a plan. Jonathan can we put this on the record . Do you want to wish your dear wife a happy birthday . Tom it is her birthday today. Jonathan so say it. Tom the heritage is just different. The birthday with me lisa jon is giving you an opening to make it up. Just wish her a happy birthday. Jonathan wish your wife a happy birthday. Youve got this. Tom i wish her a happy birthday. Usually i throw her some tots tickets or whatever, a six pack of whatever. Lisa romance. Tom within the culture, the birthday is a 30 day celebration. It is bracketed around 15 days before and 15 days after. Lisa you are nailing it, tom. Tom every day is a birthday. Tom a lotif you see on Bloomberg Radio and bloomberg tv over the next 24 hours, theres a good reason for it. He is not allowed home. [laughter] ons market is flanked, up 60 the s p. This is bloomberg. The first word news, im ritika gupta. Joe biden is on the white house after winning in wisconsin and michigan. Nevada, chance may be where he holds a lead over president trump. The president s campaign is suing in michigan and pennsylvania to stop vote counts that have been trending towards biden. The president could still be reelected, but he would have to win all of the battleground states that have not yet been called. It is a grim milestone in the coronavirus pandemic. Daily deaths and new infections have set global records. Yesterday it was reported that more than 10,000 people died from the disease, and the number the diseaseporting past 600,000 in one day for the first time. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. We came here today. We met with all our lawyers. We are going to file a suit in pennsylvania. It is a shame we have to do that. Is the last thing we wanted to do. But this is rampant corruption, and it simply cant happen. It is not fair. This isnt democracy. Jonathan unfounded allegations coming from the trump campaign. That was eric trump speaking in philadelphia. From london and new york this morning, good morning alongside tom keene and Lisa Abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Heres a snapshot of the market. I understand yesterday was the biggest postelection pop on the s p ever, up another 61. We add some weight to the s p 500. The nasdaq up 1. 8 . In the fx market, talk about the dollar weakness. Here we go again. Upodollar out to 1. 1835, 0. 9 on that currency pair. Weaker dollar bleeding through the fx market worldwide. In the bond market, we start to slow down that treasury market rally. I think the story is really well understood right now. The base case is that a fiscal package, if we get one, is not going to be as big. If we do get one, as lisa has pointed out repeatedly, the emphasis come of the pressure will be put on chairman powell and the Federal Reserve. Tom it will be because there isnt anything else going on, thats for sure. Of thent the pop off be written in 1836 was really something. Buren in 1836 was really something. [laughter] we digress with our phrase of the day, a neat narrative. We go to mike mckee on his neat narrative, with his question perhaps to the chairman. I have never seen a fed meeting so ignored. What could be the surprise this afternoon . Michael maybe something along the lines of Millard Fillmore taking a bath. That was the last time i saw you this excited about the white house. Theres not much the fed could do. I suppose what they could do is to go ahead and offer some new Forward Guidance about how long they are going to keep rates low, but what is the point . Look at the curve over the last two days. It has just plummeted. Theres nothing for the fed to do at this point because theyve got exactly what they want in terms of interest rates. Tom what is so interesting here is the dichotomy between the economy is doing ok, maybe we need stimulus, and other looking at a partitioned america where things are clearly not ok. Can the fed or fiscal be surgical in their stimulus . Michael no they cant. That is part of the problem. Yes, in concept, they could target industries by buying their bonds, which stated to a certain extent with the secondary market purchase program. But they really dont want to be in the business of picking winners and losers. Want,an buy, if they municipals. But at this point, theres nothing for them to do. I think dudley said it best when he said the fed is out of any mission out of ammunition. They raise and lower interest rates. Interest rates are as low as they can go almost, and there is enough going to be much bang for the buck to push them even lower. To zero or lower, but it will not encourage any more car sales or home sales. Jonathan treasury yields have come in. The equity market is rallying, the dollar is weaker. This is a picture of the market they want, i assume. High credit spreads, high equity market, and a week u. S. Dollar. The question is whether or not we need more stimulus on the fiscal side. What are you seeing in the Economic Data . Breathe some life into the ism we had that was pretty much ignored yesterday on the services side. Michael the services ism came down compared with the manufacturing one. We have seen a bit of a slowing, and companies dont see the environment as good as it was. It is still relatively strong in the united states. We havent started any lockdowns like they have in europe, but maybe coming. We also kind of ignored yesterday the news that we had over 100,000 covid cases yesterday, the first time we have gotten to that level. It is also almost wintertime here in the northeast. Goingcold, and no one is to want to sit outside in these restaurants. You can see that in the forecasts for a lot of Economic Data, particularly for jobs. Very low numbers anticipated only only about anticipated, only about 300,000 added this month. It is an open question right now how much they can actually provide come but i would expect actually provide, but i would expect jay powell to ask. Tom right now, Daniel Tokaji joins us with the university of wisconsin. He is definitive on election law. Thank you so much for joining us. Because of the constrained time, i have one question. Within your basic textbooks on election law, what is the thing that matters right now . Daniel they thing that matters goings that the process on in several states be allowed to continue to its conclusion. That includes the counting of ballots in accordance with state law. The canvassing of results in accordance with state law. And to the extent permitted by state law, and he recounts of ballots that might be conducted. That process is going on in many states, including the ones that are still contested in the president ial election. Carolina,evada, north michigan, and pennsylvania. Know, there are some calls that the process be stopped, but i think what is most important is that the rule of law be adhered to, and that ballots be counted, and if appropriate, recount and appropriate, recounted. Tom we hope to get you on in the coming days. I with us from the university of Wisconsin Law school. We really want to have a longer conversation, but the new slow right now is absolutely extraordinary. We can recapitulate the markets, but there is absolutely one new slow this morning on president ial vote count, and that is a narrowing gap in georgia, where mr. Biden is not there yet, but has shrunk that gap in atlanta and fulton county. Jonathan but i think others have pointed out, there is still a narrow path for a whole range of things to happen here, including the democrats taking the senate. I understand it is a really narrow path, but that is still on the table. There is also a very narrow path for the president to take a white house. We are focused on a handful of states come but the one thing we keep bringing up for good reason is arizona. You asked a question on this about 30 minutes ago on arizona, and i think it is really important. Depending on the narrative, you will people that she will either 253, depending on if they have called arizona. Lisa the big question we are also watching. Jonathan this market has called its decision. Equities upcoming dollar down in a big way. With equities up, the dollar weaker, this is bloomberg. Patience is the real key here, and what markets want to see is something orderly. The biggest Downside Risk is that we get divided government and gridlock. The senate is even more important. That is where fiscal stimulus comes into play. That is where taxes come into play. The more the stimulus talk is going to be delayed, people are going to worry about her they are going. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and Lisa Abramowicz. Tom did morning, everyone. This historic gay good morning, everyone
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