Have voted so far. 100 million voted already. More are going to vote today. Pres. Trump a vote for biden is a vote to eradicate your auto industrys. Mr. Biden my message is simple. The power to change the country is in your hands. Tomorrow we can put an end to the present who has fanned the flames of hate all across this country. Pres. Trump i am running against a very sleepy guy. He happens to be a corrupt politician. Mr. Biden it is time for donald trump to pack his bags and go home. Pres. Trump this election comes down to a very simple choice. Do you want to be ruled by the corrupt political maniacs that you are dealing with, or do you want to be ruled by the American People . Alix going us now is bloombergs aquatics bloombergs nick waddings. What are the numbers . Reporter the big time we will know things at about 9 00 a. M. At about 9 00 p. M. Eastern time in the u. S. At that time, we will have a pretty good idea of where florida is. Once we know where florida is, is goingnow joe biden to win this in a landslide, or that it is a very tight race, in which case we would look for some of those socalled blue wall states that President Trump took last time. Pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan. That is when things are going to start shaping up. As we go into the scum of the poll numbers are obviously in joe budden ash as we go into this, people numbers are obviously in as we go into this, the poll numbers are obviously in joe bidens favor. In 2016, there was a huge undercount of white not educated voters. Pollss say this time, the do reflect them, but the trauma for democrats is things look good, but what if there is some factor we are missing now . Pollsters do say biden has ,bout a 90 chance of success but really, we are going to have a very good sense for where this is around not a clock p. M. Around 9 00 p. M. Guy thank you very much for joining us. Lets talk about the senate race. The senate is going to be super important and super close. The final votes may not be counted for days. We may not get the results for days. Lets figure it out. Joining us now is bloombergs congressional reporter anna edgerton. When i my going to know the results of the senate . Be super close. Tell me what you are expecting to see anna what you are expected to see. Anna actually could go to january, when we see a runoff in two senate races in georgia. Democrats have a lot of opportunity to pick up senate seats tonight. There are two seats in states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, Susan Collins in the main and cory gardner in colorado, that democrats are hopeful about. We are also watching races in North Carolina and georgia. In georgia, has kind of a different system where we have ranked choice voting, so there are two senate races. If no candidate wins 50 of the boat tonight, that could go to runoff, which would be decided in another vote in january. If control of the senate comes down to those cases, it could be a wild before we know who will be controlling the upper chamber. There will be a lot to keep an eye on tonight. Republicans hope to pick up a senate seat in alabama to unseat democrat doug jones, and even looking to target gary peters in michigan. We differently want to keep on i keep an eye on the applications for whoever ends up in the white house. Alix thank you. Joining us on the latest polling is whit ayres, Northstar Opinion Research president. Ls tellingour pol you . Anna gave you a pretty good overview. We do know we have enormous turnout. Ofhave already had upwards 100 million voting either in person early or by absentee ballot. In 2018, we had our highest midterm turnout in over a century. Had to go back to 1914. I think we will have the same kind of turnout for the president ial election this year. Guy the markets want a quick result. Are we going to get a quick result . Guy as nick said, florida whit as nick said, florida will tell you a lot. Theres not much of a route for President Trump to get the electoral votes if he doesnt win florida. If joe biden doesnt win florida, there are other routes for him to get to 270. If florida goes for biden, you know it is going to be a long night for trump. If trump gets it, there are going to be a number of other states to watch. Georgia and North Carolina will report early in the eastern time zone, and they do a lot of their counting ahead of time, so those are two other states that donald trump won in 2016. If he loses either one of those, it is not good news for the trump campaign. Alix theres been talk of traders working overnight, playing the market on different state calls. Deutsche bank was talking about how the first batch of news is going to be pro biden, and as the net goes on, if there is less of a definitive result, that will turn more pro trump. Can you give me an idea of that sinking . Whit basically, the idea is the people who vote in person on election day are overwhelmingly republican because the president has done such a thorough job of trashing mail voting. Votes areof the early male votes, and they are much more are mail votes, and they are much more likely to go joe biden. So it depends on when the states count mail ballots. Michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania arent going to count them until election day, and it could take a long time for them to work through all of their mail ballots. Theytates like that, if report in person voting tonight early, that could go to trump, but biden could make a comeback when they count on their mail ballots. Guy what is your forecast for the senate . Well, as anna said, it is really close. There are a dozen republicans who are defending close races. It looks like an uphill climb for cory gardner in colorado and for Martha Mcsally in arizona, Susan Collins is a little closer in maine. Then there are other states like georgiarolina, the two races that she mentioned, and iowa are all very close. It is really tough to make a determination right now without seeing the way some of those really close races are going to fall. Alix what has really stood out for Market Participants is the difference between actual polling and market betting odds. What does that tell you about the psychology right now . What do you make of Something Like that . Whit i think the market betting odds are going with the latest polling. I think they are sort of linked, but i dont know that the markets have any better idea than the pollsters do right now on how this thing is ultimately going to turn out. Alix we really appreciate it. Whit ayres of Northstar Opinion Research, give very much. Tune in for special election coverage at 7 00 p. M. Coming up, more with saira malik, nuveen cio of global equities. This is bloomberg. Guy live from london, im guy johnson. Alix steel is in new york. It is election tuesday. The markets bracing themselves. It looks like a risk reflation trade right now. Bloombergs scarlet fu has the details. Scarlet it certainly is the reflation trade we are seeing reflected in trading right now. It centers on this idea that there is going to be a massive fiscal stimulus package, which would hurt the u. S. Dollar and potentially accelerate inflation. Value plays would benefit at the expense of tech names. The nasdaq 1000 we have seen value do better than growth. On so if there is some kind of upset by President Trump, look for this trade quickly unravel. Looking at etf flows over the s p 500 indexsee tracking etfs similar to spy, but at a lower expense ratio, they have taken about 1 billion in. An etf that tracks small caps also doing particularly well. Small caps a part of that reflation trade. Thehe flipside, the bets on nasdaq 100 losing 2. 7 billion in flows, and a pair of fixed Income Credit etfs also coming in with klines in terms of flows with declines in terms flows. One way to read that is that with markets counting on fiscal stimulus, there is less pressure on the fed to do very much. These flows benefited from the Federal Reserve in the spring. This is also steepening the yield curve. You can see that moving up as the predicted betting line on a Biden Victory increases as well. If you get to trillion dollars in fiscal stimulus and perhaps a massive Infrastructure Spending plan, that may lead to faster inflation, potentially causing the fed to raise rates earlier than what is being priced in at the moment. Alix great stuff. Thank you so much. Joining from San Francisco is saira malik, nuveen cio of global equities. I know you are going to talk about the longterm, and that is how you are going to position clients, but how prolonged an election cycle can the market handle . When is the date we need to know who is the president before things really fallout . Saira that is the key concern we have for today. If you think about elections highsted, probably another single digit downturn for markets. If you look at options markets, they were pressing in about a plus or 3. 5 move, right in the middle around the election outcome. Also important is the senate race outcome. How many democratic seats are we going to get . That is going to tell us the size of stimulus and the strength of headwinds we could see for more democrats around higher taxes and regulations. Lets not forget about the vaccine. We are hoping for phase 3 results in just a matter of weeks. That is going to impact the rate of economic reopening. This can tell us what kind of Earnings Growth and Economic Growth can we get next year. That is going to tell us how the market can move. We do think the market has patients for a number of weeks on this. It is actually somewhat expecting that. We do have the support of strong Economic Data that is coming back into the limelight. We saw good ism numbers yesterday. All of that is in place, plus a once we are passed these bumps in the road. Guy what do you make of todays price action . Is the market sniffing out a quick result . Is that what you are seeing priced today . Saira i think the market is hopeful of that, but part of this is just from last week, we saw one of the worst months in terms of returns since march. We were pressing in a delayed result. Part of what we are seeing now is buying in preparation for a hopeful quick result. I think it is going to be challenging because the senate race outcome could take weeks, and that does impact whether we get a huge stimulus package with or without the headwinds of higher taxes and regulation. Alix do you bet on weaker dollar, steeper yield curve . Is that how you need to think about your polio or no . Saira it depends on what kind outcome we get today. For our bet, we havent given up on technology stocks. We think those are looking quite attractive and probably would perform better if trump wins. But we have also been very interested in small caps. They are definitely some of the cheapest levels we have seen in decades. They have a lot of operating leverage going forward, which is positive. If you get that juice from stimulus, that would be positive. Looking outside the u. S. , nondollar architect been cheaper for a long time. That could be a catalyst for some emergingmarket countries and pockets of asia. Guy how important do using the first speech of whoever wins is going to be . Four years ago, that first speech by donald trump absolutely pivotal. If we believe the predictions at the moment on the bulls, it seems to suggest joe biden may be the next president of the United States. Who knows . But if he is, and he focuses on stimulus, does the market respond positively . If he talks about taxes, what happens then . Saira we dont see the similar sizable rebounded Market Movement this year that we saw in 2016. Lets focus on the first speech. Markets already have a decent expectation of what biden plans to do. It wouldnt be a huge surprise like it would be in 2016. Even though we do expect a larger stimulus package under biden, there still are question with taxes, so we have to factor all of that in. I dont think markets will have that returns that we saw that was huge in 2016 this time around. Alix today, the path of least resistance is the s p up 2 , yields backing up by four basis points. As mentioned overseas stocks most interesting, and emerging markets is where you want to be. The consensus seems to be that if you get stimulus here, e. M. Is where you have to go. Saira definitely those regions are strong not only because of their leveraged Economic Growth. China has done a very strong job dealing with the economic crisis. We like macau gaming, which is getting more traffic. And then taiwan and korea, if there are more tariff issues, they will tend to benefit. They are leveraged to some nice tailwinds for technology. Europe obviously struggling with a surge in cases, and more shutdowns, so even though it is cheap, it is somewhere we continue to avoid. One other area, brazil, that we think has lagged and its recovery. It has a nice recovery story going forward. Guy you bring up china. Has been pulled within the last couple of hours. Theres a complete lack of transparency. Does that undermine putting money into china, this lack of understanding as to what is going on . Do you think also that there could be some sort of portfolio effect . I wonder whether some of the tech selling over the past couple of days has been to free up money to put into that ipo. What are your thoughts . Saira it definitely raises some . Marx it deftly raises some risks. N marks and we are looking at the rebound of the consumer and their ability to handle the crisis. I think tech selling was broader, not just to buy ant, in case we do get this democratically sweep. People were not highly indexed into small caps encyclicals, and they are trying to reposition their portfolios because tech has become pretty crowded. They put great earnings, but it is almost like people didnt care. It is not enough to continue to drive those stocks higher. Guy we are going to leave it there. Thanks for joining us today. Greatly appreciate it. We are going to have more on that suspended ipo next. That is our next story. This is bloomberg. Guy live from london, im guy johnson. Alix steel is a new york. Is is Bloomberg Markets china putting the brakes on the worlds biggest ipo. Ant groups listings in shanghai and hong kong have been put on hold, citing major issues. Lets go to number go to bloombergs Asia Investment editor. What do we know . What is going on . Reporter this is unprecedented. Right now, as of now, where we have been told is that the for ators are asking ant regulatory revision of the company. Jack ma was called in for supervisory interviews by related agencies like the central bank, and you had the securities watchdog. As for what it means for the ipo, puffy hong kong and shanghai leg have been suspended. What we have been told is that banks are giving back money to retailers, and if ant wants to proceed with an ipo ever again and hong kong, they will have to relaunch a filing. Alix why is this happening now . All we were talking about was how big a deal this was for china, how this was going to suck a lot of money into chinese tech. Can you help me walk through the thinking as to why now this has happened . Lulu that is the billion dollar question. On the optics, it does look very bad when you have the Worlds Largest ipo getting halted. To be honest, sources we have been talking to say bankers have been blindsided by this as well. It seems regulators are concerned about the Systemic Risk that ant is posing right now, and they are asking the company to look further into clearing some of the Systemic Risks they might pose to these financial system. List, ishey are to there any expectation that the Business Model could be significantly changed . That would be the location of what has changed here, as a result of which valuation could change significantly off the back of that. , making the right a sumption am i making the right assumption . Lulu i think that is a really good point. When they went into this ipo, many people gave them a valuation that was lofty and comparable to tech firms. But with the regulatory crackdowns we are seeing, and how chinese regulators are viewing it as a financial, even when they do come back to the market again, whether people are willing to assign them those valuations again is all very questionable right now. Alix we have just about 30 seconds left. What happens now . What does jack ma have to do to make this happen . Lulu right now, according to the company, they are still reviewing the process. There is really no clarity in terms of the timeline for when they might come to the market again, so it is pretty much up in the air right now. Alix unbelievable turn of events, honestly, just in 12 hours. Thank you so much. Bloombergs lulu chen joining us. Coming up, we will look at postelection fiscal policy with megan greene, Harvard KennedySchool Senior fellow. Is markets are telling us it a reflationary outcome. Is that accurate . The s p up by over 2 . Alibaba the one off there. Yields move higher on the 10year. 71 is the spread between the twos and the tens. This is bloomberg. [narrator] this is kate. Hey. [narrator] she takes two prescriptions. Kates son jack, takes one too. Kate works hard, and thought she had good insurance. But she still pays too much. Thats no good. So kate downloaded the goodrx app. Now she can compare prescription prices, to find the best discounts. She even beats her insurance price. Good for you kate, good for you. Goodrx, stop paying too much for your prescriptions. Download the free app today. Adapting. Innovating. Lsetting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Guy the economy top of mind for many voters as they cast their ballot. Here with a closer look at how the u. S. Economy compares to 20, bloombergs mike mckee. Michael this year, it may be the virus, stupid, but the economy is still the number one issue that people tell pollsters they are concerned about. So how is Donald Trumps economy . This is gdp. We will take this part off right here because that is the pandemic. You look across the trump years, and then out there is the obama years, and really, even with the tax cut bill, there was no faster growth. Growth averaged about 2. 6 per quarter under donald trump, 2. 4 under barack obama. Not a major win for him there. Then comes unemployment. That was something that the president has been touting endlessly, especially for black and latin voters. Look at what happened with unemployment, and you can see it was really just a continuation of what happened starting with obama, when an amid peaked and then came down, and the trump economy kept it going. Brages have something to about, but it is not entirely him. Finally, lets take a look at the one argument that donald trump has that is relatively successful. That is that he made people wealthier. Take a look at the lines here. The blue and white lines are savings in the u. S. And the stock market. All of that did work well under barack obama and kept going, but accelerated under donald trump. Stocks and 401 k s have been better. One area that was better is the performance of household income, which is the yellow line. It never really got going under the Obama Administration until the very end. Now it has finally crossed over and got to the highest level ever, over 68,000 a year for household median income. To make that late argument because it is election day. Talk more about what we are going to see from here on. Alix thank you so much. Joining us now is megan greene, Harvard KennedySchool Senior fellow. I guess what markets care about most is the size of the stimulus and what is the actual pass through to gdp. What is your modeling telling you right now . Megan usually the markets love gridlock, but this time around they like gridlock because it means the government cant do anything this time the market is cheerleading a blue wave because of the size of the stimulus that would be passed. If you look at joe biden various policy proposals, the biggest envelope and that stimulus is actually health care. The secondbiggest is investment in infrastructure and climate. Those seem to be the biggest ones. Of those two, i would say that Infrastructure Spending and climate could have massive. Assthrough one thing that hasnt really improved is income inequality and wage growth. If we could get some kind of Infrastructure Spending program, that is really worker intensive. That is the kind of program that would create high wage jobs that could significantly upgrade our workforce. Whichever candidate goes head and implements it, it is a big line item in joe bidens proposal and platform. That would be a game changer and would have significant passthrough to people on the street. Guy traditional logic completely turned on its head. What happens if we do get divided government . What does the economic trajectory look like then . Megan then i think we are looking at not getting much done. The first thing to be called into question is immediate fiscal stimulus because of course, most of the support measures put in place to support workers expired in july under july and early august. If we have a divided government, we will have even more divided politics, so that fiscal package might be pushed further off. As we go into winter and as the number of new cases continues to surge across the world, but also in the u. S. , we look down the barrel at potential localized lockdowns again. That would be a huge headwind on the economy, and we could have a doubledip recession in the absence of more support. Alix lets break that down a little bit. Then you have to have stimulus for recovery, and sort of for survival. Then we have to have the conversation about actual stimulus and juicing up future growth. I feel like europe is now back in the former, and the u. S. Is somewhere in between. Those are Different Things pending the virus. Megan thats right. The fiscal stimulus we have had in the u. S. , you have to think about that more as catastrophe mitigation than actual fiscal stimulus. It is just filling in the holes so we can get back where we were before. The Fiscal Stimulus Program that joe biden, for example, has put in his platform, 7 trillion of spending over 10 years, that is with a longerterm outlook. Some of it might help the economy in the short term, but most of it is aimed at boosting productivity, boosting growth, so it is a much longer time horizon. It is what we need in the u. S. For sure, but the most immediate one is filling in the holes. Guy lets talk about what would happen if we do get a blue wave, and the reflation trade that seems to be on today continue. U. S. Tenyear trading at 88 basis points. The yields do spike higher. Will the fed sit on them . Megan i dont really know why yields would spike higher, to be honest. That is certainly not my base forecast. If they did, i do think the fed would sit on it. The idea might be that we are going to have all of this spending coming through the system that should generate inflation. The reality is we actually saw this in 2017 when we had a bunch of tax cuts and massive spending bills. It didnt really generate any inflation. I dont think we will get inflation, but if we did, there is a question about whether the fed would have to react, and elevate sudden all of this debt becomes unsustainable. I dont think we will get inflation, for starters. Not in any meaningful way. If we did, i think the fed would be the first to break out the tickertape for the parade because they havent been able to generate inflation for the past decade roughly. The fed has now bagged it into its mandate, that it has to sit and watch inflation over to inflation overshoot the target, so i think the fed would stand pat if we saw borrowing costs rise or inflation rise. Alix i hear you that you dont expect a rise in yield. Is there a natural top because of growth, or will the fed have to come in at some point, especially if you are seeing a rise in yields that is not because of growth . You are not seeing Inflation Expectations move at the same velocity as you are seeing the yield curve steepen. Megan i dont think the fed would feel like they had to intervene because of growth either. If the idea is we are going to get all this fiscal stimulus because that should generate some growth, but in place and expectations arent moving, that is perfect for the fed. They dont have to worry about inflation, but the Economic Activity will be better for the other part of the mandate that they have to subordinate the full employment piece. That is kind of big goldilocks that is kind of a goldilocks situation for them. Guy i guess it depends on the type of inflation, but if it was the right kind of inflation, the salvation might be in order. Megan, thank you very much the celebration might be in order. Megan, thank you very much, indeed. Voting ending at 1 00 a. M. New york time when the polls close on the east coast. We will look at the transition of power if we get one with barbara. With barbara perry. This is bloomberg. Ritika theres been speculation that President Trump might declare victory tonight whether or not he has actually won, but the president tells fox news there is no reason to play games about the clearing that hes won. He says he wont that he will only declare victory if hes will only declare victory if hes won. Retailers are bracing for potential violence in the back of the election. Manhattan, in washington, and other cities have boarded up windows. Meanwhile, states are prepared to call out the National Guard if needed to keep the peace. Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker has ordered on thousand numbers of the guard to be on standby. National guard troops will also be on standby in case there is more violence in portland, oregon. Have memoryready handling cybersecurity and routine election tasks. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Guy thank you very much, indeed. Adding to uncertainty over the Election Results is President Trumps latest remarks on how he will deal with the outcome. Pres. Trump i think a lot of fraud and misuse could take place. I thing it is a terrible decision by the Supreme Court, a terrible decision. I dont know if that is going to be changed because we are going to go in the night of, as soon as that election is over. We are going in with our lawyers. Guy lets talk a little bit more about this. Clearly the president voicing his concern about the Supreme Court decision on drivethru ballots. Nevertheless, we have seen across the United States cities boarding up stores and mains are affairs. Youve got at least 16 states now with the National Guard on standby. In thes clear fear United States that the outcome of this election could cause violence. Alix and not at all reflect it necessarily in the moves in the markets we are seeing over the next 24 hours. I should point out that just now, you have fivethirtyeight saying that joe bidens chances of winning the Electoral College are at 89. 2 . Still in the winning category, but again, that Late Comeback of President Trump. It is important to look at the outcome on particular regions in the country in terms of when we know what. The idea that we will know more about biden upfront, and President Trump later on, could also give a lot of fodder to individuals on both sides to push their election agenda. That is why you have tech giants facebook and twitter trying to stemnt to get in to any misinformation. Guy from my understanding, they have done a fairly good job on dealing with the foreign threat, but i guess the domestic threat is where the real challenge lies for these companies. Verified influencers that are toe to use these platforms be able to potentially put out falsehoods i think is one of the biggest threats that we do have. We are going to continue to watch that narrative unfold, but certainly, they are trying to put in some checks and balances in place to try to deal with that, and that has got to be one of the Major Concerns right now. Us now, barbara perry, director of president ial studies at the university of Virginia Miller center, to give her take on this. How concerned are you about the potential for violence as a result of this note . Barbara more concerned than i have ever been. I tell people i have voted in 11 president ial elections, now an even dozen todays, and i never expected, nor did i ever fear, that there would be violence following an election. I sit here in charlottesville, virginia, where in 2017, neonazis and White Supremacists descended upon our little Lovely University town and perpetrated violence in the streets and killed one of our townspeople by running her down with a car. We have seen it firsthand, and we have seen it around the country, particularly the summer. So i do worry, and i hope that americans on all sides will remain calm. Alix do using that when there is a conclusive result, that this is something we are going to have to manage . Barbara i suspect that what has been turned up over these last four years will have to take some time calm down. It will take a president who can have a calming influence, but unfortunately, the country is now so polarized between liberals and conservatives, democrats and republicans, and socalled red and blue states that there seems to be little room for middle ground, but that is what i am hoping, that should joe biden be elected, he is a moderate in his own party, a moderate liberal, and i hope you will try to guide the country toward that, but it is going to be difficult, no doubt. Guy if there is trouble, if there is violence, do you think the states are capable of dealing with it on their own . There has been some talk of the insurrection act over the last few days. Do you think this could ultimately become a federal issue . Barbara it could, and there certainly is a history in this country when violence breaks out in the streets. We saw it in the summer, as an example. We saw at after the assassination of dr. Martin luther king in 1968, in our own capital. ,here were riots in the streets burning, looting, and the National Guard did have to be called in. I think that Police Forces are trying their best. Certainly here in charlottesville, when things went terribly awry in 2017, they ousted the head of the Police Department and tried to do better. The governor then send in state Police Forces as well. The states will do their best to take care of it, but we also know that the president can federalize the National Guard and send them as well to keep the peace. Alix walk me through what we know about concessions. The pub ability that either candidate will concede seems pretty stretched. How do concessions work . Can someone from the party concede on behalf of the party . What does that wind up meaning . How can we nip all of this in the bud as best as possible . Barbara in the modern media era, it has been a president , either incumbents who have lost reelection, or the challengers to incumbents who have lost, that go before the media at the point at which it seems the election has been called, media. By the it is not the official word because it takes time to count all the votes, but usually based on a good sample of the votes, that if most of them are in on election day in the United States, usually by midnight or so it is pretty clear which candidate has won, and oftentimes prior to midnight on election day and evening, the losing candidates will come forward, whether that is the incumbent for the challenger. Sometimes in close elections, obviously with bush v gore it took a much longer time, but i can or member in 1976, i stayed up until 4 00 a. M. To see the winner, and then it took gerald ford, who was the incumbent who lost to jimmy carter, and because he lost his voice, his wife betty ford had to read his concession statement. If we look at concession statements over history in the very modern era, they are very gracious and graceful, and we hope for the same this time around. Is a contested election and it does go to the spring court, do you think that would be a further politicize asian of the court . Are we straying it politicization of the court . Are we straying into that territory . Barbara we are, and it didnt particularly help in bush v gore. Approval ratings for the Supreme Court were at 60 because 90 of republicans agreed with the decision the court made, which made bush the president. Only 30 of democrats did, but if you average that, it comes up to six to percent up to 60 . But the court has taken a hit since Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away, even going back to the denial of obama to put another person on the court when scalia died. The court has been in the maelstrom, and if it does reach out and take an election case in the next few weeks, i dont think it will help its legitimacy and authority in the american system. Alix so how do we fix this . It feels like this election is going to be messy, no matter which way you slice it. It feels like it has been messy since 2000 in different ways. How do we fix the system so we dont get back to this place again . Tobara it is awfully hard amend our constitution, so to try to reform the Supreme Court to have term limits, for example, that its very difficult. But purely on the election process, there are many reforms that were put in place after bush v gore in terms of counting, and we will see the results of that in a good way tonight in that florida tightened up its counting processes, and we will probably know by midnight who won florida, a key that around state. But i think the answer is to bring together blue ribbon commissions, a bipartisan or nonpartisan commission to look throughout the United States and attempt to reform our election system, because this business of people waiting in line eight hours, that in itself is a repression of the vote. Alix we really appreciate this perspective. Very helpful on a day like today. Thank you very much to barbara. Of university of virginias miller center. Barbara perry to of university of virginias miller center. Time now for futures in focus. A more definitive outcome priced into the market. Joining us is Amy Wu Silverman, Rbc Capital Markets equity derivatives strategist. We are pricing in a solid win from someone. Is that what is happening in the market . What is your take . Amy absolutely. I am staring at my bloomberg screen right now, and i see between november 4 and november reesese two option expert s, whichn expirie tells me we will get some solution by november 4 instead of november sixth. I think in flexion happened a couple of weeks ago, and this election will have a pretty speedy decision. Guy if we do get that tonight, how much does vol come off . How much does the vix selloff . Amy i think if we get a very clear winner tonight, that front of the term structure gets sucked in a lot. I dont know if it flattens all the way through to where the term structure is, but it comes and what i tomorrow, think will be a little bit more interesting to see is what happens to the remaining options expiries. Term structure has been sloping downward this entire time, and i guess what will be interesting to watch is whether or not investors will roll forward any plays to the impact of either a trump or Biden Victory, or if they move on to the results of the vaccine as the next thing they are focused on. What about the results of the senate . Amy to be clear, i think it is important that we know both because obviously, as it regards fiscal stimulus, that is the key to watch. We will have to know not only who the president is, but also obviously what the results from the senate are because the market cares about fiscal stimulus right now. That is what they want to know, and that is why they do not want a contested and protracted election that goes through the next couple of weeks. Guy as election risk potentially comes off, covid risk could be climbing. How do the two interplay . Amy it is a great question. I think people are very nervous about what they hear coming from the u. K. In terms of a secondary round of shutdowns in the u. S. What i think is really different and you have to keep in mind is why this is different than april. We are six months closer to a vaccine. Obviously, none of this would be good, but even if coronavirus cases rise, we are going to get a second round of stimulus, and we see positive data coming out of december. I think those two things are overriding. Alix weve seen a lot of market. Ty in the equity treasury volatility is now a sixmonth high as well. Are you noticing any migration there . Amy what i thought was interesting about that is a week ago, the rates market, as well as the equity volatility market, in terms of what they were pricing, were extremely similar to the point where the trades we actually saw placed in the vix were short vix trades through to six months. Essentially, investors placing large bets that volatility will be much lower in the future than it is now. We saw the same thing in the rates market, so essentially, people betting that this volatility is going to come in similarly in the next three to six months. Guy lets talk single stocks. When do you think we get the biggest realize volatility . Amy of course, a lot of this will depend on what happens within the next four to 48 hours, but one pocket we have been looking at is solar, and one reason for that is obviously we are trying to think about what is the most highly correlated to a potential for a blue wave. We have been looking at the solar etf, as well as individual names. You actually saw that trade kind of in lockstep with the rise of the possibility of a blue wave that has come in again, but i think you start to see theres natural volatility in those stocks, and i think you continue to see volatility in those stocks as people start to segregate bisectors if there is a clear victory coming out in the next shortterm. Guy amy, always great to speak with you. Thanks for joining us today, Amy Wu Silverman of rbc, markets. Could up, a Biden Victory benefit markets. That is according to holger schmieding, aaron burr chief economist. The reflation trade berenberg chief economist. The reflation trade is definitely on today. Youve got the dollar under pressure. The british pound up solidly. We have positive headlines out of chris whitty in the last hour in terms of his testimony. The aussie dollar is up strongly as well. We will continue to break it down. What does this election mean for the rest of the world . We will discuss that next. This is bloomberg. Guy it is election day. We are counting you down to the european close here on Bloomberg Markets. What do you need to know from europe this hour . Election day over in the states. The world and the markets on tenterhooks. Anticlimax. Groups ipods ant in shanghai and hong kong. Alibaba down sharply on the back of that news. Joining nd citi tier two and tier three system actually was having an effect. A quick look at the markets. The reflation trade is on. Markets pricing and the idea that we do get a result tonight. , thetoxx 600 up by over 2 s p up by 2. 4 . The dollar is down, both against the euro and against the pound. The pound is up over 1 now