A little bit more u. K. What weve got today, Kevin Cirilli, our chief washington correspondent, makes clear when he is on after midnight, we are not going to know many of these outcomes. Jonathan we do better because it is shorter and it is cheaper. We hope wednesday morning we have a result. This market fears this could drag out for a long time. Sea, wem sea to shining are having a vote occur right now. We see a number of institutions already. How about the bank of America Stadium in the carolinas . Carolina playing at kansas city this weekend. This is the first of the disciples in west palm beach, florida. It is a beautiful church, ravaged by hurricanes over the years. Yet today, there is the peace and calm of voting. I want to make clear that within the punditry, there is a question. How big will the turnout be after 98 Million People choose to vote early . Jonathan the pundits everywhere, all the time, it is all about the turnout. Is massive. No one knows what it means. Equities positive 44 on the s p 500. There is a cyclical tilt to this market rally over the last of love days. Lisa and accelerating conviction that regardless of who wins, or perhaps because they think joe biden will win and there will be a blue wave, that treasury yields are going to rise. That there will be some sort of reflation bet going forward. We could talk about the fact that there were september factory orders or october autosales, and you guys could laugh at me and say no one cares, because no one does care. Today is the final day of voting in the United States election. Tom keene is exhausted. 7 00 p. M. , polls start to close virginia,including georgia, and north carolina. Pennsylvania probably wont know for a very long time. One a clock a. M. Tomorrow, alaska, thein westernmost of the u. S. States. Jonathan i googled that. I found out the same thing. Thank you. In the equity market, the s p 500 futures rallying 44. We advance 1. 3 . The internal rotation is there in the last couple of days. Tom yes. Jonathan the outperformance of the cyclical sectors, we can talk about that in just a moment. Dollar weakness, euro stronger. Even the aussie is stronger after rate cut at the rba. In the bond market, curve steeper, yields higher. Week, big selloff. Monday and tuesday, tidy rally going into the selection. Tom yesterday a real rotation. We see it follow one today. I can do the Percentage Points here. Dow moving sprightly. Nasdaq 100 moving a little less. How you bring up eurodollar. Are positioned differently for major currencies and for em. It is the thinking that you would cem doing better under a President Biden then a President Trump. Jonathan good morning tball. Our first guest this mark good morning tball. Our first guest of the morning, chasestubbs, j. P. Morgan head of International Market strategy and advice. Youyears ago, if i had told the result before it happened, would you have put on the rate trade . [laughter] david that is a good question. The initial kneejerk reaction is often overcome as markets process the second level of reaction. That is what we saw in 2016. Initially, bond yields falling. Then they started to rise. Very much risk on is the market a ssed this we had process to that we had a unified government and would cut taxes to boost the economy. This time around, theres more consensus about what the Market Reaction would be, but there is also deep uncertainty about some of the other outcomes we might see, like sustained government outcomes, what that means for stimulus in the shortterm and policy in the mediumterm. Tom update the jp morgan view on this economy, q4 and q1. What do you view our growth will be around this politics . Avid i think that weve seen remarkably strong rebound in the United States with the consumer manufacturing leading the way, but we also have to recognize that a lot of the rebound was stimulus driven, and we have not seen the kind of renewal of and thatthat we wanted was necessary. The absence of any further physical help will lead us to have to revise down our growth targets as we move through into next year. You have already seen us taken down or european targets to zero in a lot of countries on the back of the renewed lockdown measures. I think this shines a light on one of the key areas of uncertainty, especially under some of the split government results of this election. What kind of stimulus, if any, do we get in the lameduck session . What do we get into the First Quarter . Control of the senate may absolutely determine that. Especially if we look at the race in georgia, where we could see a runoff weeks from now, we could still be living in this uncertain environment around the stimulus for a while. Lisa people talk about the uncertainty, but there is one High Conviction bet out there. You can see this in a variety of ways, whether it is the record net short bet, a longer dated u. S. Treasury, or the biggest outflow from the longer dated treasury etf since march. Do you think people are too confident that treasury yields are going to rise . David i certainly think a lot of people seem to be on that side of the ship right now, for sure. We had a call since late spring, to the middle of next year. Certainly across asset, you have seen a couple of things priced in here. Between process and policy, you have seen the pricing in of what. Smooth process polls are very clear about the lead for biden. We have seen a pricing out of a lengthy, contested process. If we look at the performance of clean energy stocks, great example there. Comes with the higher bond yield, steeper curve play we have started to see. Obviously if it doesnt work out like that and you see market prices and some of these things, we could see some significant moves the other way. Jonathan lets talk about policy as well. How dependent is that call on year endar to get to with a clear path on a fiscal stimulus package . David very dependent, i think. I think you would need to see further support under the consumer. I think you would need to see any kind of restrictions or lockdown measures accompanied by further physical action, both for the states and federal level. Betweenthe interaction state and federal is an important one. They will have to cut employment, cut some of the services as well. Hung upnot been too about whether stimulus would arrive before the election or just after. If into january and february nothing has been done, you have to be concerned about the growth outlook, and that would obviously have implications for rates. Tom we have been looking at turkish lira. It is grim, really discrete and idiosyncratic. I am amazed at the strings in em currencies right now. What does that bode for Em Equity Investment . David i think em is a case of the has an havenots right now. Almost 80 of the benchmark is in north asia. Taiwan, south korea, we know they are first in, first out. Controlled the virus very well. Huge tech sectors are playing better around the virus. That is where the bulk of the market cap is. We have no problem in taking significant exposure there. Around the rest of the world, a very different picture. You have several economies that are being badly stung by either low Commodity Prices or the in placesessation like turkey. So this pleases look at they will remain weak for the time being. We need to see significant action from the central bank, restoring policy rates. We probably need to see signs of. Apitulation clearly, some players have been checking out. Remember, we are watching it very closely. Lets be clear, and credit, and parts of latin america and turkey, where we think the underlying issues are very we have been actively engaged in those sides for sure. Moment. Less so at the jonathan a round the world trip on this final day of voting. Thank you, david stubbs. Headline crossing from jp morgan. All but essential workers to work from home in england. Hes on this program. Clearly, hes essential. Tom hes more essential than mr. Dimon. Lisa thank you so much for waiting before saying this, waiting for him to gracefully exit before going there, jon. Jonathan i just want to get to the work from home issue antilockdown in england just briefly. Massachusetts last night, yesterday afternoon, rather, implementing a mask mandate and some form of curfew as well. We are always focused on the shark close to the boat come up covid cases arising in the United States, and massachusetts has made a move. Mayor ofin walsh, the boston, will give us guidance on that. What is so important to me is hospitalizations in the medical community. Jonathan from london and new york this morning, good morning. Im jonathan ferro. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. Theres never been an election day like this one. Almost 100 million americans have already cast their ballots, and they did so in the midst of a pandemic that has killed more than 230,000 people here. President trump and joe biden capped their Bitter Campaign with a push through states critical to deciding the outcome. President said biden is not mentally equipped for the office. Biden called the president a disgrace. Communitiespshire small New Hampshire communities that traditionally cast their ballots at night have tallied their election. Authorities say the gunman who killed four was a north Macedonian National who had a previous terror conviction. The suspect was killed by police. It is not clear if he was acting alone. Police made a number of arrests in rates this morning. Another 17 people were wounded in the attack. Authorities say shots were fired at six different locations. Prime minister Boris Johnson says theres no alternative to opposing to imposing a coronavirus lockdown across england. Johnson revealed plans for entire cities to be tested to to rootymoptoma out a symptom at a to root ptomatic carriers of the disease. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Pres. Trump tomorrow we are going to win this state, and we are going to win four more years in the white house. Mr. Biden decency, honor, respect. Where has it gone with this president . Let me tell you something, folks. Tomorrow is the beginning of a new day. Jonathan President Trump and former Vice President joe biden yesterday, their final release ahead of todays election. Good morning. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Live on bloomberg tv and radio, this is bloomberg surveillance. Up 40 on the s p 500 this tuesday morning. We add some weight to the benchmark in the United States, up a little more than 1 . Dollar weaker against pretty much everything in g10. On that currency pair. In the equity mike at the past couple of days, that rotation to materials,als, industrials. Yields higher, treasuries lower. Two points on the 10 year. 86 basis points is your yield on the u. S. Tenyear. Tom we were just looking moments ago at montpelier, vermont. Are are emoting they vermont, howard deans where every vote counts, and a very interesting part of the nation. Kevin cirilli will not be counting votes in vermont or New Hampshire, not part of the tension here today. Our chief washington correspondent will be looking at the other little towns. To talk about montpelier or Dixville Notch really shows the importance of every little town. What have you gleaned from the little towns of america in the last few days . Kevin here we are and what is an american tradition. This is a ritual that americans have participated in since the sounding of our country since the founding about our country. While it is important as we sprint through today, as well as the early hours tomorrow, and maybe even the days after, that we take a moment to pause, take a deep breath and knowledge and acknowledge the historic nature of today. I have my eye on erie, but the vania. In erie, but the my eye on it, pennsylvania. On erie, pennsylvania. Continue. Tom kevin if you want to get an idea of trade relationships, go to erie, pennsylvania. It is the great lakes states. Michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania. That is one of the counties that President Trump was able to flip from Hillary Clinton back from obama years. That is one of the swing counties in this state. Think to minnesota, i minneapolis, the site of the George Floyd Protests over the summer. That is another example of where you could see if President Trump is going to have a good night in minnesota. That could be a positive night for republicans across the board. Jonathan everyone on the outside looking in is taking note of this huge turnout, huge amount of early voting. We joke at the top of the hour that every single pungent everything will pundit talks about how huge the turnout is. Why is it important . No one seems to know what it actually means. Kevin i am not a pundit. Im a reporter. If you look at the early introduction of the data we have seen from the 90 plus million votes that have already been cast, look at the demographics. Where have those votes really come from . Harris county. That has shattered records. That was the site of where to local republicans had what is likely to be a test to get drivethru ballots thrown out. That is another good example here if you look at the broader chronology of this evening, you could have a mirage situation early on, where early ballots in florida look like very good news for democrats, and then as more votes come in, it starts to shift. You could play that scenario out for both sides, but patients. We will got to practice patience tonight as we get these results because it is not what comes in first in the early tabulations. It is after every vote is counted. Tom i want to switch to Riviera Beach, north of miami. Cameis where the bahamians over years ago. It speaks to the black vote in florida, to the black vote nationwide. Will they deliver for President Biden as the stereotype . Kevin that is what biden is hoping. And it is in nash county, north carolina, another swing district with a predominately Africanamerican Community. They did not show up for Hillary Clinton in these counties and parishes. Obama was in florida. He wants to get out that vote. He wants to recreate that coalition. Early polling would suggest, according to the data, they are not performing at the levels they had in 2008. However, with turnout, biden is hoping that will boost him over the finish line to carry the states. Lisa which states are you looking for to determine some sort of verdict that could be a linchpin in deciding the overall election . How quickly could we learn about florida and potentially the outcome of the election . Kevin i think if we get early results for biden in these battleground states, where turnout is so significant, that he is going to have a good night. But really, georgia is fascinating. Georgia is a battleground state. Important massively senate election, plus a runoff. Two senate elections. Youve got this issue of a runoff that could happen on january 5 with the senate, and georgia really could be the deciding factor in terms of who is able to control the senate. Senator david purdue, the republican incumbent, up against democrat jon ossoff. Youve got a Second Special election that happens. Its fascinating. It is so incredibly important to deciding the senate. Georgia is going to be remarque about. Jonathan how was the birthday going to be remarkable. Jonathan how was the birthday, kevin . Kevin you know what . Im in my element right now. Its a good birthday. Jonathan was this the Birthday Gift . Kevin this right now, this moment is the Birthday Gift, truly. It is election day. Lets have a great 48 hours, their essay. 48 hours, dare i say. [laughter] tom i am going with 30 hours. Jonathan the fantastically committed Kevin Cirilli. Tom you can help and he picks it up from david westin later tonight. Jonathan i would be happy to do that. Kevin was not due to be on with us this morning, and he got on the phone and asked to make an appearance. That is the level of commitment from this man. He starts now. He will be with us in 24 hours on no sleep. Tom what do you see in the market . Jonathan a real lift. Tom look at oil. Oil jonathan crude catches a bid. Maybe opec backs away from not backing away from those production cuts. Tom enough market talk. Back to politics. Jonathan it is election day in america. This is bloomberg surveillance. From london and new york, for our audience worldwide, good morning. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. This is bloomberg surveillance , live on bloomberg tv and radio. Heres the price action this tuesday morning, shaping up as follows. Advance ahe s p, we little more than 1. 2 . 0. 8654 . 10 year to in foreign exchange, a dollar that is weaker against absolutely everything. Oil outperforming in the commodity market. Really nice lift on brent and wti after the absolute battering it got last week. Advancing, and a euro with a 1. 17 handle. There is a cyclical tilt to this Market Worldwide going into this election. Tom theres been some real movement. It has been very subtle. Looking at the screen, it has been everchanging. I am watching the real yield, which a number of people have commented on. The 0. 86 , that is a better position than the grimness we saw 10 days ago. Jonathan the market is in a much better position, but investors have one big fear. It is a contested election. Arlo of bnp dan paribas had to say. What i am concerned is that of january 20, there is no clear picture of who the president of the United States is, and trump show up claiming they are the legitimate president. The obligations of Something Like that are so unfathomably profound that it is hard not to believe that will have a pretty dramatic effect upon our kits and the economy upon markets and the economy. Jonathan that has been the fear of this market for the past several months, but it has been a pendulum. Tom Greg Valliere publishing moments ago suggesting a light blue wave. Im not sure what that means, but we will go with it. Futures up 41. A joy on this election day to have Luis Alexander with us, of stanford to have Lewis Alexander with us, of stanford and yale university. Is theyour measured note reality of a President Biden or President Trump, which is there are two americas. There seems to be an america still prospering, and the angst, the anxiety of so many other people. How does any new president in the next term apply policy to two americas . Lewis you are right, there are big divisions. That was true before covid, but covid has made things worse. I do think the fiscal response has got to deal directly with some of the economic consequences, so i do think it is very important to see, regardless of who is president , whether or not we can continue fiscal support that helps to deal with the immediate impact. Over the longer run, youve got to try to do with these gaps. I are things you can do. I think there are ways we can restructure the economy and reduce inequality. I sent that is going to be important to the long run health of the economy. We will see whether or not we can get that. One of the things that is very important to remember is it is not just about president s, but what happens in congress. To me, the biggest Downside Risk is that we get divided government and a gridlock. Biden and the white house, republican senate. That i think has the potential to be the worst outcome because it will mean we are going to get much less fiscal support, and that is going to be a real nearterm problem. Lisa our traders and economists underestimating the momentum in the u. S. Economy . The manufacturing numbers we got out absolutely blew away expectations and came in the strongest in several years. We have been revising our forecasts up. I am guilty in the sense of the benefits of reopening have been stronger and more durable than we expected, particularly in an environment where weve got a resurgence of covid, and the fiscal support has waned. Theres got to be a question about how far that can run. Obviously things have gotten much worse in europe, and we are going to have to deal with covid going forward. But there is no question that many analysts, myself included, have underestimated it. Tom Lewis Alexander of nomura with us today. The images on television of Riviera Beach, florida, a key state of miami, with a large Africanamerican Community where president obama has been very visible for his Vice President in the last days. Jonathan we talk so much about how important the economy will be for this election. This economy is difficult to read. Lisa brought up the ism in the last 24 hours. It was really on fire. Momentum in the u. S. Economy is clear in manufacturing. Do you expect it to hold up on the Services Side in the months to come . Expecting the ism Services Index to be in line with where it has been. Theres some upside to that. But there are these two forces that are very big. One is the resurgence of covid19 and the fact that we are starting to see some evidence of mobility falling off. It is not going to be as severe as we saw in the spring. The other thing is we have gone over the fiscal cliff. Fiscal support has waned. Thats got to have effects as well. I do think theres a lot of momentum, but there are limits to how far that can go, particularly in an environment where the rest of the world doesnt do it so well either. Jonathan the limits of that divergence we could see between manufacturing and services, we see that spreading in europe right now. Manufacturing is holding up an expansionary territory on the pmis. Youve got services negative. Using that spread can persist in places like europe and elsewhere . Thes if you look at lockdown policies being imposed in europe, there is an important distinction that in the spring, they were very broad and included manufacturing and construction. They are not doing that this time. They are focused on the Service Industries that are particularly vulnerable to social contact. I do think that is going to persist in the way the europeans have responded to the resurgence of covid. We here in the u. S. So far have been much more reluctant to go down that road. I think it is not quite as obvious that we are going to see that here. But it is the risk. Ofare behind europe in terms where this covid outbreak is at this point. If it gets worse, we are going to have to consider doing more. I dont think we are going to do as much as the europeans, but i do think we will see that the virgins continue in europe. Lisa we hear a lot about divergence continue in europe. Lisa we hear a lot about this. How big, given the strength we have seen in the economy so far, does some sort of fiscal effort have to be in order to prop up growth to the levels you are currently pricing in . Lewis we think we need another 2 trillion to basically offset the drag we are going to get overtime. Of the ways to think about it is the support that has been provided so far, the tax rebates, the ppp, extended unemployment benefits, have given people a cushion. It is clear that consumption is above what income would support, particularly with the people most affected. That cant go on forever. That is going to turn into a fiscal drag next year if it is not replaced. Need something on that order to sort of offset those effects and get decent growth in 2021. You Lewis Alexander, thank so much for joining us, of nomura. That will be interesting to see. Many saying they will try to stay out of trouble at their thursday meeting. Right now in trouble is Stephanie Kelley with aberdeen standard investment, i really interesting mandate at the large Investment Management firm. We will try to figure out what ill of this means for Investment Management, particularly longerterm money. Stephanie kelley, thank you so much for joining us today. What does this mean for active management . How does the election play into the Investment Management industry here . Anything, i think if it should show how crucial that role is for Asset Managers because if we look at what a Biden Administration might mean with or without a democratic majority, or if trump gets reelected, all of those things are really stories about the sector rather than just the pure index. So it is a time when we really need to be thinking about what is the regulatory environment, and that is not a way super clear cut. So understanding and actively think about what does regulation mean, what does legislation mean , and which of the sectors can win or lose, that is what is going to be the key to 2021. Tom summarize the state of populism right now. We had this terrible attack in. Ustria the state of populism on this election day. Stephanie theres a couple of ways to thing about populism. We tend to focus on right wing populism. That is the one that has been the most successful in recent years. You look at the french 20 the french 2017 elections, in the u. S. , in the u. K. I think the one to watch for investors is in the next year or so, it is actually italy. Although the coalition is relatively stable, my fear is that actually, the majority of isport for parties in italy for populist parties, and in particular, it looks like a rightwing populist coalition could be the next government and we get to the next election. That is one to watch for the next year. It is not a near run it is not a nearterm risk, but definitely want to keep in mind. There are issues that make it for me an ever present source of political risk, just not right now. Jonathan to state the obvious, there is upside risk, as well as Downside Risk. I wonder if we are learning what populism actually means for financial markets. Stephanie it is interesting that we use this term, populism, and a broad sweep. What are the policies they are incorporating . Are they making a risk event bigger than it would be otherwise . An election is an example. We probably need to veer away from just the populism and think more of polarization. It is not just that youve got parties on the far right or far left. Centrist parties can also follow part. We are looking at a Democratic Party that is much further left than it was four years ago against a Republican Party which remains quite conservative at its core, although trump has them plummeted this additional element. I think what that means is from one election to the next, you can get a lot of swings, and that is where the risk comes in for investors. Is once youstion are over the event, once you know the result, what does regulation look like, and what does that mean for the companies you are investing in . Lisa just to build on the connection between markets and politics, can you give us a granular sense of the process of how you work with investment managers, whether youre looking at longterm place plays or shortterm plays, based on some of the Political Developments you were just talking about . Stephanie theres a couple of ways we do this. When i started doing this kind of political analysis in the Asset Management industry, which i have to say, there arent that Many Political economists in the industry, i was struck by the extent to which they were in these frameworks in place to give up politics. I always say to our investors, to our clients, it is not just enough to have a base case. Investors always anchor on this base case approach. When it comes to politics, you have to accept that there is a lot of information you dont know. We dont know if polls are accurate until they are proven accurate or inaccurate. We can do lots of engagement, lots of research, but i thick the best way to think about it is not a single base case, but what is the distribution of risks here, and from that, say this is the distribution of political risks. What happens to markets in each of the scenarios . That way you have a market risk, and then you have a better understanding of how exposed you are to a given outcome, be that brexit, u. S. China trade relations, or the u. S. Election. Lisa probably the most prominent political economist is ray dalio of bridgewater, talking a lot about the rise of populism, about the inequality, and cash is trash, the expectation for inflation in the United States. Do you agree with his conclusions based on his assessment of the Political Landscape . Stephanie theres a lot to parse out in terms of that connection. I think we should never be too to rush into what it means. There tends to be this discussion that x place whereby more Government Intervention equals lots more inflation. I think we need to put that in the context of what other kind of political issues are going on. One big one is the googles asian element, but also the cyclical and structural weakness. Those things push and pull against inflation in different ways. I think it is another good example of where we have to be quite careful and consider what we sink about each individual risk, and how that plays into the big macro theme, which still also relies on breadandbutter economics. What is being produced . Wheres the demand . Where is the supply . Om the imagery is important throughout the early morning, the Vice President joe biden attending church at st. Joseph in delaware. I believe weve lost those images, which is good for radio. It never works on radio. But joe biden at church this morning to begin is election day. Contrastsuch a stark between these two candidates, and the attendance of church made large by the president s appearance on Lafayette Square during the protests of previous months. Lisa it has definitely been a moment of imagery. We will see how these two candidates are going to craft their imagery heading into the evening. The key question will be how social media handles both candidates, when you look at the possible restrictions on them declaring victory too soon. 8 00 onis quarter of the east coast on this election day. Important images there. Jonathan very much so. Weve got to thank Stephanie Kelly of aberdeen standard management. Chris verrone joins us now. This is how this program works. We throughout a question about an hour ago about whether, if you knew the election result before hours ahead of the ago, wouldur years you have put on the right trade. Chris straightaway, get me on the phone. Chris, what is your response, sir . Chris it is a great question. I think too much information is business,g in this and what we have seen in almost every election going back to 1950 is whatever the trend of the market is going into election day, that tends to persist after election day, irrespective of what the outcome is. 85 of the time, what has happened the last three months continues over the next three to six months. I think the market has trended up. I am not sure todays outcome is going to do a whole lot to change that. Jonathan is that an index trend, a sector trend . If that cross asset . Chris i am speaking specifically about what is the primary trend in the s p 500. Something as simple as is the 50 Day Moving Average trading above the 200 day, and when you have entered election day with that being the case, the market is positive over the next three and six months by margins that are far greater than what the historicals are. The forward returns over the next three to six month have been pretty miserable. I think the trend tells you more about any specific headline risk or specific geopolitical event. Trend is up. We bet markets up three to 12 months from now. Tom thank you so much for joining us today. 2016, of a history of 9, 10 days down in a row, and then a moonshot up off the market. Do the charts tell you that now . Is it a redux of 2016 . Can you bet on a moonshot, whoever wins . Christopher markets do a very good job. They are very efficient at discounting wellknown events ahead of time. We just had an 8 correction in the s p. I would sit here thinking on election day that the market has already discounted the risk of an unknown outcome or a contested event. I think markets discount this stuff as they likely discounted trump the first time in 2016. You see it right now in the volatility market. The vix curve is about as backward dated as i have ever seen. You have spot vix trading so many points above forward vix. That could be that people are already positioned for chaos. Jonathan jon ferro is in west london with all of the beautiful people. What is backwardation . Christopher the spot contract is trading well in excess of the future contract. So right now, spot vix is somewhere between seven to 10 points higher than the december and january contract. That is a very unusual shape of the volatility curve, and i think it reflects all of the hedging that has already been done before this election. So our point being the market has already discounted what is event or and unknown contested election. That is in stark contrast to what we saw going into the 2000 election. Think about the unknown outcome in 2000. The market was not prepared for that. I think a little bit different this time around. Tom very good. I believe weve got some images here as we look at polling today , on Bloomberg Radio and bloomberg tv. People over the desk, doing it by hand. No chads attended here. Not the voting booths of another time. Michigan, north of metro detroit. Certainly we are hearing from all reports that michigan is absolutely key, and critically has been tilting towards mr. Biden in recent days. Jonathan this one is different, though. Will we actually get a result wednesday morning . This speaks to what Chris Verrone is discussing with us. Do you just stick with the trend and try to look through a lot of the volatility that may emerge in the coming days . Lisa but some of the trends are incoherent. Chris, this is where i wanted to go with you. You seem to be talking about the strength building and equity markets. We are also seeing yields rise, but there is momentum within positioning as well as the trend lines. How coherent is it for treasury yields to keep on rising from here, in tandem with this reflation trade . It does hamper the benchmark valuations that we see in equities. Christopher i think it is a great question. What i found may be most notable is, despite virus concerns, despite lockdowns in europe, despite election risk, bond yields havent flinched. Curve is about at a three year high. Groups like materials and industrials have continued to forge ahead is leadership. I would go back to what we said earlier. I dont see the market having changed a lot over the last several weeks. I think the leadership has been were markedly resilient and remarkably consistent, and i think it gives us a little bit of a heads up of what leadership is going to look like on the other side of all of these events. During Market Corrections, we have been in a Market Correction here. We always look to what groups are exhibiting leadership. There are groups on the other that continue to work. Industrials, materials, boxes. Ry all check those at the lisa lisa same time lisa at the same time, the dollar has not been a similar story. Where is the momentum there . Christopher i think the primary trend of the dollar is down. We had this oversold rally over the last month or two. I am more and shined to be a seller there more inclined to be a seller there. When you look at the more traditional it limits around the world, whether it is copper strong, gold holding in their come of the strength we have , in in the agricultural industrials, and materials, these dont sound like strong dollar events right now. I am of the camp that you sell dollar rallies in primarily the trend is dollar down. Jonathan appreciate the phone call, sir. Chris verrone there. The president of the United States is talking to fox news in the past hour. This is what he has to say. Vaccines are coming. We are rounding the corner on the virus. The counterpoint would be what happened in messages thats in the last 24 hour in massachusetts and the last 24 hours. Tom certainly he has supporters across his recent Campaign Rallies who believe the same way. Ifwill be fascinating to see policy will change on that. On Bloomberg Radio and television, we are moving around the nation, looking at some of the end is of the some of the images of the selection morning. This is where the Dallas Mavericks and the stars play. We saw that with the bank of America Stadium where the panthers play, as well. Of course, texas is i guess a purple state, and i guess Kevin Cirilli has told me it is really nuanced this time around. Trump andident republicans lost a recent case to discount some of the votes that were done by drivethru. Theres been 120 thousand votes. The fact that this is the potential turning point for the election, that theres 120,000 votes, whether to count them or not, that that is a such pivotal if you that that is such a pez little issue that that is such a pivotal issue tells you about this election in the swing state. Tom really a remarkable occurrence, more of a political judicial system in jealous than texas, and where the Republican Court pushed against the ground republicans. Jonathan a really important distinction you are making here, the amount of time it will take to county vote. That is one reason why we manage it a result tomorrow morning. It is not just that this will be contested over a long period of time. You might have to wait for pennsylvania for several days, too. Tom kevin has made very clear this morning that is the case. I would say tonight, as david westin begins our coverage, they will be a lot of action in the 7 00 hour. As we showed Riviera Beach north of miami moments ago, florida is really front and center early. Jonathan georgia, when the polls close at 7 00 eastern, the people talking about a huge blue wave have talked about georgia being in play as well. Be the that will first one people start to look to. Tom i dont see much on the market. Within the bloomberg terminal, it a sort of a quiet market day, but that has to be expected. Jonathan youre hard to please. Monday we had a big rally. Tuesday we are adding some weight to that. What more do you want . Tom just looking for an entry point. A little nervous. Jonathan i hear you. The coverage continues for our audience worldwide about tonight, 7 00 p. M. Eastern time. This is bloomberg. When you switch to xfinity mobile, youre choosing to get connected to the most Reliable Network nationwide, now with 5g included. Discover how to save up to 400 a year with shared data starting at 15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. Come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. You can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. Thats simple, easy, awesome. Visit your local xfinity store today to ask, shop, discover the latest on xfinity mobile. We seere in the doldrums stalling out for a period. The consumer is very nervous. We could be in for a prolonged correction. It is as important as the magnitude. Increasingly, central governments are having to address the weakness in demand. We dont have safe havens anymore. I find it difficult to build a portfolio that i think will be truly robust. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. Good morning, everyone. Thi