Italy lays out fresh plans to halt the spread. Angela merkel urges people to follow the rules. Benefits from volatility, joining european peers posting lowerthanexpected bad loan provisions. A bullish tone with the numbers. Bottomshould look at the line. It stands at 2 versus a year ago. Look at nine months. It basically is ahead of the target we gave for the full year 2020. Headline. The red the savior, guess what it is . Ficc. Fixed income commodity and currency. 36 . Ng rises by it has beaten the estimates out there. Looks like ann marie, lets provision, very much less provisions. 1. 2 billion euros over what we had anticipated. What else have we got . You have the net numbers. That thirdquarter revenue surpassing the one billion euro estimate. Quite a beat. They are bouncing back more quickly than a lot of french peers on equity derivatives. The equity trading revenue rose more than 21 . That beach the highest estimate. Some good numbers coming through. The other big story, we have been counting down to this. It is election day in the United States of america. 1 00 a. M. On the east coast and we just had 45 minutes ago the first in person votes being cast knox. Ville not indicative of anything, but it is a great tradition. This is a historic moment. We have record voter turnout. What does it mean for the democrats . Our editor really making the point it is all about the , but weiden is ahead will debate that. Marcus looking frisky. Certainly. Japan closed, the Msci Asia Pacific excluding japan up nearly 1. 5 percent this morning and we are seeing Global Equities moved to the upside. Futures in london up 0. 9 . Dax futures, a nice reprieve after what we saw last week on the dax. We are up 1 . Across assets this morning with japan, you are going to wait for bond trading. The futures market on the 10 year. Aussie under pressure. You have been all over that. Rba cut their Interest Rates announcing a new bond buying program. Eurodollar 116. What a reprieve from brent. Yesterday a bloodbath. Novak beating russian producers. Signaling they will delay production cuts. U. S. Manufacturing numbers, a great number on the manufacturing side of those pmis. Thats obviously going to be helping anything in the oil market. It is election day in the United States. President trump and joe biden ended the race with a final blitz of campaigning in critical states. Biden leads nationally. The latest by Quinnipiac University putting him ahead of trump in ohio and florida, two of the most hotly contested battleground states. Our Senior EditorDerek Wallbank joins us now. He has lived in so many of these swing states. Inn in miami, lived wisconsin. What has been the closing messages in the final moments of campaigning . Donald trump in grand rapids, one of the places in michigan on election night, is a really important area where trump barely carried it in 2016, but the Biden Coalition should do very well. A critical area of the state. Trumps closing message was his greatest hits. He talked about hunter biden, he talked about the pressure probe, he talked about all those sorts of things. It has been more of the same, whereas joe biden has come home on this race very much on his basic message of competency, decency, and the ideas that if youre tired of four of those last years, you dont want four more of the same. As theyivergent message close up. Joe biden is sticking really to that midwestern battleground. He wants to clamp down and win in pennsylvania particularly. Manus 100 million votes we understand have been cast already. The First Physical votes were cast. 100 million. Do we have any indication whether this will come true to a blue sweep . Or is it blue mr. Risk . Missed risk . Five of the people of Dixville Notch are going to be upset with you. The line between a close race and an absolute blowout is very small. If you look through the electoral map, you can get from biden being about 250 electoral votes and just falling short to biden being at about 375 or 400 electoral votes without too much actual change in the vote margin. The line between 250 and 400 seems like a huge gulf but in reality, it is not that big. Raceis is a statebystate , we could be in for a very long period of vote counting. I thinknk markets everyone tried to pair for this. But if you are sitting there yourlly planing out portfolio and your clients that is volatility to beat all volatility. 2020 has been the euro volatility, hasnt it . Year of volatility, hasnt it . Manus it has. You will get no sleep, you will be with us all the way. , my apologies to the notch,ants of dixville by the way. Here is the president , he has been talking for quite a while. Hes in grand Rapids Michigan and it looks like the polling there, according to the detroit free press, biden leads by seven points in michigan. Hence the reason we are so focused on this. Yes. One thing to keep in mind is this is where president donald nominee,enrepublican ended his campaign, right here in grand rapids, michigan. He has been talking now at least for an hour, talking about a red wave coming through, saying hes doing very well in swing states like florida, like michigan. These are the states we are going to be watching closely. Lets just listen and see with the closing comments are. Pres. Trump bigger than health care. Lower drug prices even more. We have signed and done something that has never been done on Prescription Drug prices. It will bring prices down 60 , 70 , like you have never seen before. Pharmag companies, big does not exactly like your favorite president , i will tell you. That is ok. We will always protect patients with preexisting conditions. America will land the first woman on the moon and the United States will be the first nation to land an astronaut on mars. Donald trump speaking at grand rapids in michigan, he has been speaking for quite a while. We are online, on tv, on radio. D. C. Acrossive from the United States. And into asia and here in the middle east. Broke the bnp paribas numbers at the start of the show. Ficc ripping it up, way ahead of the estimates. That came in up 36 on their trading. We had the opportunity to speak with the bnp cfo about lockdown across europe. If you look at the lockdowns being announced today, and you compare them to what we saw early in the year, they are quite different. It looks like the authorities have learned their lessons. Basically the authorities themselves keep on going, construction can continue, moreover if you look at manufacturing, if you look at services, the Service Industry has learned from the previous confinement and really is equipped to continue working from home. From that point of view, the impact will be different. There will be an impact, but it should be different in nature than what we saw previously. On top of that, all of the authorities have stepped up the efforts they have done to support the economy. They are rolling out new things in europe. They have stepped up to 15 billion Additional Support to the economy. One has to see how it is enforced, but the lockdown seemed different. The ecb is continuing to impose dividend restrictions. Your ability to give money to shareholders has been limited. Lets talk about dividend policy Going Forward. The first question is the 2019 dividend. Is that going to be paid in 2020 excuse me, 2021, or as you think we are going to have to wait for later . Is it going to be a 2020 story, a 2021 story . I dont have my crystal ball with me. We have to wait on the guidelines that europe will give. At this stage they will come back on their recommendation around december. We will have to wait. If we look at the 2020 dividends, 50 of that, we have put aside for dividend to be paid. Also there we have to wait for what the authorities will do, but that is what we continue to provide. , youe flip side is continue to focus on cost. Is your expectation in terms of the banks ability to reduce costs further . Are we going to see significant layoffs . If you look at the costs we are reducing, we are reducing them in infrastructure and the like. When you look at our staff, lets not forget, our staff is fully there to support the economy, they have been mobilized. Banks are open. That is the key thing of what we do. We aim to optimize, to be there, to be available, to serve clients, to serve the economy. That is what we will continue to do. Cfo. E bnp coming up we are going to continue on election day, battleground blitz. Trump and biden head into the home stretch. You can see donald trump wrapping up his final rally of 2020 at the same place he ended his 2016 campaign rally. More on that next. I have to begin this conversation using the word uncertainty. Im worried about the prospect of a contested election , especially widespread unrest. And come january 20, im worried there is still no clear picture as to who the president is. Reality will start to set in of President Trump wins. The market will be less enthusiastic after the initial bump. There has been recordbreaking turnout in a lot of places. Texas comes to mind. Whether this guarantees a Biden Victory or not is anybodys guess. From election to election, the difference is not so much people changing their minds. It is who decides to turn out. Biden and the white house without the fed means emergency stimulus in january could be very tough. Exitere is not really an ramp for either side. The stakes are so high that when we wake up wednesday or much further along if we dont know the results quickly, around half the country is going to find this to be an existential threat. That is the view from our guests, local wall street on uncertainty. Americans had to the polls with massive turnout expected and mailin ballots to process. It has the potential to end in an early landslide or a drawn out brawl. Senior fx is a strategist out abn amro. How do you suggest traders position going into the next 24 hours especially when it comes to the u. S. Dollar . We are moreay that cautious. Ine seen in the coming the days up to hear that some of the traders and investors have reduced the position they had. If they were long euro they have reduced somewhat. Cautioushere will be they will be cautious Going Forward. The dollar until now has been done very well. Sentiment was very negative on the dollar. You have more uncertainty. You see the dollar has faltered a bit. It is a standstill of the moment waiting for more clues on what the outcome will be. Now we get a bit more cautious. Result ing for the the days after. Manus very good day to you. Explodingket that is is the yuan volatility. Overnight volatility makes equity and bond traders look weak. Victory, how does that play out for the yuan and the pboc . I would say players or investors have already anticipated a biden win. The yuan hasy rated so strongly as they anticipate he would win and they would be in a better relationship with china. Personally i think they are too optimistic. It is not that clear biden will take that road. His approach could be different than trumps approach, but i think he will still take on china. Are hopingvestors there will be a relationship between the u. S. And china. Probably if that would be the be the story could if biden wins. Do you agree with what strategists are saying, that biden is bad for the ruble but good for the peso . General, if biden wins, the dollar would move a bit further in the short term. That is probably because of the stimulus package for the economy which could give that extra boost to the economy. In the event of trump, you could see more dollar at the same when you get into the whole story, real yields will stay negative or even go more negative. That will weigh on the dollar in 2021. If i would move that to emerging markets, they have been beaten up quite a lot recently. Because of the uncertainty and because we had a bit of a comeback on the dollar. I would say there is a bit more upside next year. This year was not the year of em certainty. Be for 2021. Ould thank you. Election coverage you dont want to miss it. We start at midnight london time. We will be live from d. C. Across the United States, the very latest on all the market actions. We will be with you from 6 00 a. M. London time. I will be here for the middle east shows as well. Coming up, clear win or contested results . Our key election morning calls right here. This is bloombergs. Nus it is daybreak europe in thelection day biggest economy of the world. Investors are really trying to understand, what do i do, where do i go . Juliette saly joins me from singapore. Joins us, i should say. I am getting used to her being back. Good morning. What are your morning calls . We have just heard from cit s top u. S. Equity strategist saying they are seeing more clients fallout. There could be an upset Trump Victory. This is based on the fact you cannot rule out the shy Trump Supporters and this could also lead to challenges in the court which would be an upset for markets. They still have a 65 probability you will see a biden win. Comeu do see supporters out of the woodwork that could lead to social unrest and an upset to markets. Jp morgan saying if you see a trump reelection you could see the s p 500 get to 3900 points by years end. The banks equity strategy seeing a Trump Victory is the most favorable outcome for the markets. Be accompanied by fiscal stimulus but rising taxes. Southeast saying a Biden Victory would be good for european stocks due to lower trade uncertainty. Stimulus has we are expecting. Lets look at what everybody is bracing for, that is a contested election. Bank of america saying u. S. Stocks could face a 20 slide if you see this. They want to see for the markets a clear result coming through within a week of today. They say declines will be sharper than 20 if either side refused to accept the results. Saying drivey are the 10 year rate lower. A slew of election calls. We will see who got it right. Coming up as we discussed the election in the United States, here in europe, it is all about covid. Annmarie good morning bloombergs european headquarters. This is daybreak europe. Election day in the u. S. 100 million americans have voted early and turnout is expected to challenge a historic record. Struggles to battle covid19. Finance ministers are set to meet and chancellor merkel urges germans to follow the rules. Bnp paribas beats. The ceo struck a bullish tone on the numbers. The bottom line stands at 2 versus a year ago. If you look at 9 at nine months it basically is the head start in the outlook for 2020. Paribas to is bnp the beat in the oil market, to aramco. Their profits net quarter drops. It is down from 79. 8 billion riyals. Dividend, this is the critical point. This was the promise made by the saudis to the market. Dividend, 18. 70 5 billion. I think we are still on track. I need to double check we are still on track for 75 billion this year. This is the important number. You have the capex number . Flow fromcash operating activities, 18. 8 billion. Capital expenditures, six point 4 billion u. S. Dollars. As you say, the dividend, crucial for aramco. They are maintaining that dividend and that is key for the kingdom. Low oil prices weighing on every oil major. Everyone started to hurt. You saw that yesterday with the Russian Energy minister. We have results from bayer, a adjusted ebit tha. A miss going through some of the numbers. And of course it is election day. That is going to be the biggest driver of these markets overall. In newin person voting hampshire. Dixville notch. Five votes. Manus five people. Annmarie five people voted. It is an american tradition. What is so unprecedented about the selection is this election is the mass turnout before election day. Nearly 100 million americans have already voted. We have just done the aramco numbers. What would the new relationship for joe biden be with saudi arabia . What would be the extension of a Trump Presidency in the relationship with saudi arabia, one of his critics . Iran sending us although to the biting camp. If you do not lift sanctions, we are going to return to some of our Nuclear Production facilities. There are warning shots from my region back to the white house the half major, major implications. Lets take a quick look at markets. I think the word i used is frisky at the top of the show. Equity markets are showing effusive signs. Asia up 1. 3 . In asia on the risk of a protracted discussion about who is present, bank of america says we could drop 20 . Ironic to see the dax up nearly 1 as we go into the close. Lets have a look at the treasury market. Treasury funding comes at 50 of what they thought it was going to be. , japangot u. S. Futures closed, the cash is closed. Futures prices drop. Bond yields are rising at the moment. Why a is your function. Aussie drops. Brent down by a quarter of 1 . Marketshe state of the as we go into election 2020. As the coronavirus is surging across the u. S. , europe reporting record daily cases. Boris johnson said the u. K. Has no alternative to lockdown across england. Governments trying to cushion the economic impact. The u. K. Is going to be bringing promising 15, billion 15 billion euros of support. The focus is on the next move from the central bank. We hear from the boe this week. Joining us from brussels is maria tadeo. Finance ministers will be meeting today. How downbeat will they sound . If they sound anything like Christine Lagarde did last week they are going to sound very downbeat for the european economy. Christine lagarde said the risks are very very much tilted to the downside. The economy is losing momentum. We do not have a time horizon in terms of the pandemic. There is no visibility. Those restrictions may be longer than expected. They may become more structural. For the finance ministers the debate will be around that stimulus package, whether more money is needed to be put to the table or just stick to what we have and make sure it gets implemented. Remember the Recovery Fund and the talk around it is stuck in negotiations. The second issue will have to do with economic route economic rejections. They were hoping to see a rebound by the end of the year but that is not going to manifest. The question is whether or not europe is headed into a doubledigit recession. Manus that is the risk, but the longer we go into lockdowns, does it turn up the heat . I cannot believe we are still talking about the recovery, we are still talking about stimulus in the United States, but does this bring imminent pressure to bear on the recovery front . Good does and that is a point. The Recovery Fund was agreed in the summer, but it is dependent on the european budget. It is very technical. Stocks have been stuck for weeks now. What changes and it goes back to your point is that there is a lot of political pressure on the european parliament, on the european council, on the european governments to get to a deal that can unlock the Recovery Funds. We could see movement there. There is pressure given the situation, given the fact we are not immersed in the second wave and economies are hurting. To avoid any trouble and make the recovery is operational by the start of 2021 with no major delays, yes, it really does increase the pressure on that front. Manus thank you so much. One reminder coming through on that bayer number that you broke. Provisioning on the protection isof going to impact stock when it moves this morning. Georgette, we are talking about lockdowns, we are talking about the ecb. The euro reflects another rate cut, which to a certain extent, you have to scale back the pricing on rate cuts for next year. What is the euro telling you . Rate cut sort rate cuts or Something Else . It is more deflecting what is happening on the ground than a rate cut. We have seen before the euro has been very strong. The euros andin was getting weaker. Already for some time because of the effect, with covid, the second wave, this is getting more and more likely. It is also getting to the intention the attention of investors. Wave, they the second discussions about a Recovery Fund as well as the ecb was quite dovish last week, it has resulted in a much lower euro. For the time being, investors are still a very long euro. Level is below 116. We have come close. , 15 or if you break it even a bit lower, today with all the election uncertainty, if markets get upset, you get a risk on wave, the dollar will probably be bought. Level, so igh this would say eurodollar is reflecting more the uncertainty we have in europe, but still investors are relatively optimistic at positions they have. They are still quite long euro. Annmarie the euro this morning 11659. Living to see another day above 116, not below that Crucial Point yet. What ecb plans to do, is that already priced in . It very much depends on what they are going to do. We dont believe they will cut rates. That, youre to do will see more weakness on the euro side. We think they will step up. As well as more measures for banks. I would say that, yes, more stimulus is expected. I dont think that the current level is reflecting a rate cut. One of my guests last week suggested the swiss franc, the swiss were in danger of being tagged currency manipulators when the report comes out. How really risk is that as we are talking about politics in the next 24 hours . If you look at the latest data, they have risen substantially. They are really at a higher level. They are continuing to intervene on currentct we are levels is mainly because of that. You get more uncertainty in europe. The Swiss National bank is clearly on the others. Annmarie thank you so much for joining manus and i this morning. Now lets get the first word news. It is election day in the u. S. The latest polls show joe bidens leading donald trump nationally as well as in key states. Campaign thinks a surge in early voting will help democrats but trump argues those heading to the ballot box can wipe out the early advantage. Twitter says it will not let candidates claim victory. It will required tweets to cite their sources. Two National News outlets or state officials. That do not follow the guidelines will be flagged. Killingng in vienna three and injuring 15. Police shot dead one of the gunmen. It was not clear if he was acting alone or with others. The interior minister saying the shooter was a supporter of islamic state. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Coming up, pandora warns of the Downside Risks from the pandemic. We speak to the ceo next. Annmarie good morning, it is. Aybreak europe of a drop inng thirdquarter revenue. Joining us is the ceo. Good morning to you and thank you for joining. I want to ask a very macro view. From where you sit, the numbers you are seeing, retail in general, what does it look like out there, given the pandemic is really just shuttered Stores Closing and we are seeing a second wave in europe . We see a continuation of what we experienced when the pandemic hit, we have less customers in the stores for most retail, some ecommerce,ver two are of that, customers simply not shopping. Depending on the category, there will be winners and losers. We are on the good side of things right now. The performance of our business. Are the front end of risk, arent you . Have,onomic situation you are you going to have to close stores and up the online . Are you at a turning point in terms of what you do with your business . Seen when Stores Closed in the Second Quarter, we could not recoup. If you recall, sales were down roughly 38 in the Second Quarter. The moment we reopen stores, people flooded back in. People want to go to retail. There is a different experience we can offer. There is a convenient aspect of ecommerce, closing some of the transaction volume. For this industry at least, i dont think we are at a Tipping Point to stay to say we are going to start closing stores. There has been this talk of revenge spending, pentup demand. Are you seeing that . Separatelike trying to hot from cold water. This is impossible to say. We do not have facts to support that. There are some macro numbers you can look at. Spain for instance which does not get the tourism, we can see volume is down there. You can go to countries which typically would travel to spain like germany and the u. K. And we see businesses do well in those places. Spending money at home versus tourist destinations. That is from a factual standpoint as far as i can go. Manus im looking at your geography. Your revenue is in america. Then you have asiapacific. Bounce seeing a rapid back in eurasia market relative to the European Market . Just the metrics, if that is part of the narrative. Hadf you recall, we have business in china which has not been faring so well. This was true before the pandemic hit. That was expected to go down roughly 20 this year. As we have gone through and come out of covid, lets say china is more back to normal, we are back to those type of levels. The bounceback for our brand is not as strong in china. Inn we can talk about china that respect. Then we have australia, one of our more mature markets. The Third Quarter was the strongest quarter in three years. The bounceback has been very strong. That happened despite the fact we had one out of four Stores Closed thanks to the situation in victoria. The business essentially my narrative is the strategy of program now is working everywhere. Each country has a slightly different situation. On one hand because of the brand history and the secondhand because of how this pandemic is developing. The important thing to remember here is sellout growth in the Second Quarter globally is only minus two. October came in at plus eight. We have seen accelerating Business Performance coming through the Third Quarter into the fourth quarter. Annmarie does any of this change your pricing Going Forward . Can you repeat that . Annmarie does any of this change your pricing Going Forward . We do not expect any change in pricing. I think we are fairly priced as it is today. We are happy where we stand. Matt manus thank you so much. The pandoras ceo. Thank you for your time this morning. Coming up on the show, it is election day in the u. S. What do the results mean for European Assets . This is bloomberg. Manus it is daybreak europe. Your slate to watch for the day, the euro area finance ministers are meeting to discuss covid19. In the united day states of america. The polls are open. Donald trump and joe biden have ine one last push for votes key swing states. Big day. Annmarie we just saw 45 minutes ago the president wrap up michigan. Now after equities rebound yesterday, market washers remain on edge ahead of the election. What can investors expect especially in europe . Joining us now is dani burger. Any degree to which European Markets have begun to position around a biden or trump when . Win . It is hard to divine election signals because price action is dominated by the coronavirus, by the ecb response to that. Because we saw this huge selloff last week, somewhat counterintuitively, that might mean we see more of an asymmetric response from europe depending on the outcome of the election, specifically a blue wave. One of the key areas that may play out, it may fuel one area we are seeing react. That is a widening spread between u. S. Treasuries and bones bunds. Any additional stimulus could amp up that spread that trend. A trend we have already started to see player. E things have yet to be perhaps more corporate taxes. Look for those to move if there is a blue wave. What about European Assets in terms of a trump win . Win is being discounted at the moment. Perhaps that gives us the greatest risk of volatility should that play out. You will recall trump has been vocal about his desire to put more tariffs and taxes on european goods should that play out. According to Bloomberg Economics it is about half of euro area gdp embedded in the exports he is targeting. Again, you might see price reaction preparing for that. The biggest risk for american markets at this moment, which would be a contested election or a delay in stimulus, is less of a risk for europe. The u. S. Economy is more closed, meaning spillover effect would not be as great in europe. Should there be a lot of asset volatility, that will impact europe. That contested election is something everybody is worried about. Bank of america are talking about a 20 drop. One of our guests this morning says way more than that. There are risks. Annmarie yes, but Global Equity markets are pointing to what the mliv blog is calling a green sweep. The dax up. 5 10 of a percent. We are back tomorrow with more election coverage. The european open next. Anna good morning and welcome Bloomberg Markets european open. Im anna edwards. The cash trade is less than an hour away. Election day, markets are in a bullish mood as americans go to the polls. Nearly 100 million have voted already, with turnout expected