29yearolds say they will definitely vote this year. 47 said the same in 2016. The polls show young voters will likely back joe biden over to 25ent trump, 63 percent. It is becoming a familiar story for louisiana. Much of the state is under a hurricane warning. Zeta is heading toward the uf goals u. S. Gold coast. Gulf coast. If it makes landfall in louisiana, it would be the fifth named storm this year. Bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Vonnie it is 1 00 p. M. In new york, 5 00 p. M. In london, and 1 00 a. M. In hong kong. Im vonnie quinn. Welcome to bloomberg markets. Here are the top stories we are following on the bloomberg and from around the world. William spriggs, the aflcio chief economist on how the groups 12. 5 million members are coping in the absence of more fiscal stimulus. Big news in the semiconductor business. Competitor for 35 billion in an all stock deal. With theive interview Mandarin Oriental international ceo on how the pandemic has hit luxury hotels. Lets have a look at markets. We are not seeing the bounceback from yesterdays drop that hit not asket hard, but enthusiastically down today. The s p down. 1 . The vix, close to 33. Even crude oil is about the only thing bouncing back from yesterdays drop. Still below 40 a barrel. After months of talks, the white house today all but confirmed there would not be a preelection stimulus package, leaving the direction of the countrys economic coverage to the candidate that takes control of congress and the white house. Guest, william spriggs, is the chief economist for the aflcio. He is also educating the next veneration of black economists at howard university. Thank you for joining. Would a Biden Administration policy, the Economic Policy platform that we know of right now, how far wouldnt go to upping your 12. 5plus million members at the aflcio . Immediate need, it would help a lot. Vice President Biden is in favor of the package that nancy pelosi has had in place since may. We have an immediate need, right now. Millions of people who are unemployed have lost their and aninsurance, important portion of what pelosi put forward included assistance for workers to make their cobra payments, so they could keep their health insurance. A number of workers are in states that did not expand medicaid. Vice President Biden has made clear, in those states, he will fill the gap that had been in obamacare, that left those workers unable to afford health insurance. There is that immediate need. Then of course, the Unemployment Insurance system is in shambles. That will take quite a bit to heal. But it is the immediate need that a Biden Administration would have tended to already. Unfortunately, Senate Republicans decided in may that they would prefer to wait out the election before providing relief to america. Vonnie we know at least 8 Million People have fallen into poverty since the beginning of the pandemic. If we dont get something for these people until january, and that is assuming there is a turnover in power, what happens to the lowest rung of the economy, those that are already petering on poverty . William this will be a catastrophe, both for those people, and the economy. We know from the latest dense data in the census, a large number of people who rent are behind. If they dont make their payments, a lot of landlords will be stressed. The commercial real estate space, we know there are a number of stores that are already straining because of the inability to contain the virus and get people into stores. They dont feel safe with the disease spiking again. Those stores will be a risk or the commercial space. We face a huge catastrophe if we dont do something by january. Our state and local governments are already constrained beyond belief. The rise in the virus right now will stress them even further. Many of them were just in the process of trying to get kids back into school. That will be difficult to achieve without additional burdens on state and local governments to make those schools safe. Vonnie we have seen a massive demand shock to the economy that is likely to continue for some time. How much help should Corporate America get versus consumer america . Should people receive cash, or should Companies Receive what some call bailouts in order to hold onto their labor force, keep jobs, when there is demand eventually . Hope everyone learn from the lessons of the great recession, that you have to recover the economy from the bottom up. That is why it is so necessary to do an extension of the heroes act into the new year to catch up the consumers, so that thrive. Es can derive we have learned comparisons of what is happening in europe, which is much more aggressive in protecting payrolls than the united states. We have created a nightmare for ourselves in reconnecting workers with the workplace. It stalled and now we see job growth has grown tremendously. Our inability to connect employees and workers will be difficult. Keeping your eyes on the grass root is the way to make sure that corporations will be safe coming out of this. Vonnie so you are saying, send cash to homes . William well, you want the people to pay their rent and bills. It is better to make sure that those bills get paid. Vonnie the aflcio is generally opposed to International Trade agreements. If there was a Biden Administration, should we assume that we will not see that bilateral relationship with china improve, that trade relationship improve anytime soon . William that is not correct at all. We do not oppose International Trade. What we oppose our trade agreements that race to the bottom that do not provide protection for the environment or workers. What we object to is having corporations sit around the table and secretly negotiated deals that favor corporations. Trade is a winning proposition for everyone, if you design it as a trade deal. What we have had our massive investment deals and tax loopholes written into agreements that have made it difficult for all countries. You see countries around the world now trying to figure out how they can restructure International Tax agreements because these trade agreements are really just guised tax moves. Vonnie i have to mention the speculation that you might be a contender for a post, labor or treasury. Have you been having conversations with the biden camp . William i am not. I am flattered if anyone considered me but i have not had any conversations. Vonnie also speculation that Bernie Sanders could be considered. Would Bernie Sanders and biden make a combination when it comes to a labor position in a Biden Administration potentially, were he to be elected . Welcome havingd a clear message sent as we go into a new administration, that this administration understands the extent to whichever labor laws and our labor regulations are broken. Anyone who has a track record like Bernie Sanders, as a champion for american workers, would be a welcome lead. To ask youlso want about your post at howard. Economicsd the department, continues to be a professor there. Why did it take until 2020 for us to have that conversation about racial equality in the economics profession . William like the rest of the world, economists were shocked at the horrible tape of watching mr. Floyd b almostd, and the pornographic nature of the Police Officer staring directly into the camera. It was so disturbing even economists had to question themselves. Of course, this was literally blocks away from the minneapolis bank. L reserve the president there is a very sensitive person, he is committed to equality, has worked very hard in the minneapolis area to promote equality. Hehink the institute established is testament to that. Part of this was it was in his backyard and helped to ignite a conversation because there were more powerful economists than just academic economists who were deeply disturbed by that. Of course, we are proud of my artment because, Harris Kamala harris is a graduate of the Economics School at howard university. Illustriousry graduate, as well as others. Graduating the pipeline. What is the policy that you want to impart to your students that they will need to take out into the world and implement, if there is to be any structural change . William the key problem is that economists have made themselves slaves to marginal analysis. Atwe have gotten better getting data, identifying causal elements, we have gone deeper into that fetish of doing things on the margin. It makes you miss the bigger picture. When you look at situations that africanamericans face, it is an institutional problem, not a problem on the margins. It has divergent economists away from what is actually the obvious. I hope that our students at howard will continue the legacy that other departments at howard have contributed to, which is to get people to be well educated, wellrounded, and look at the total picture and not handcuff themselves into looking at just small parts of it. Vonnie professor spriggs, wonderful for you to join us. We hope to speak soon on the economy and lots more. Afl is william spriggs, the chief economist. The pandemic created a shortage of many household items, but now several manufacturers are benefiting from lean inventories. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Im vonnie quinn. U. S. Durable goods orders rose in september by more than forecast, indicating manufacturers benefit from steady demand and lean inventories. While those inventories are benefiting manufacturers, not so much for consumers. Early on, the pandemic created rolling shortages of toilet paper to packaged meat. Now consumers face a scarcity of larger Household Goods as they replace some of their equipment. Scarlet fu takes stock. Scarlett shopping for a new freezer or bicycle . Join the waiting list. Buying things is easier but getting them to your doorstep is a complex choreography of supply chains and shipping. Few retailers anticipated any demand surge, while decades of justin faxed just in time manufacturing kept inventories lean. The virus also gummed up trade links, resulting in a shortage of containers and congestion at ports. With demand climbing on the back of a booming u. S. Housing market , and already stretched network is seeing more stretch. Repairing your asian appliances is just as hard, especially after the u. S. Raised tariffs on chinese parts. Perhaps straining the system even more. As manufacturers rebuild inventory, gdp will get a boost over the next three quarters, but states that rely on logistics, manufacturing, and construction will outperform those with service driven economies. That was scarlet fu. Dive isus for a deeper the senior u. S. Economist for bloomberg. Wasnt capitalism supposed to solve these problems, and solve them quickly . This recovery has been anything but even. The latest data highlights what is happening between the services and goods sector. As scarlett mentioned, a lot of demand recently for durable goods. That is driving Business Investment at this point. Right now, what we see is a significant rebound in durable goods, simply because we have such lean inventories due to the earlier shutdowns. At the same time, the services sector, a huge sector of the u. S. Economy, is still companies,because restaurants, hotels, other Service Sector related businesses cannot open. Inre is a lot of divergence the economy at this point. Vonnie at some point, people will not be able to afford their durable goods anyway, unless we get more fiscal stimulus. What happens in that instance . Isena what it comes down to how much money people will have. Right now, there has been a lot of saving for low income households that came from the. Timulus checks those measures expired and there is no agreement on the new one. Catastrophic outcome in the first half of next year, if nothing is done. At the same time, high income households have been saving, not going on vacations and things like that, so they can spend money on goods. Whenever you want to name. Improving their house, buying some stuff there. These are all very temporary developments. Going forward, we need a steady and some fiscal support for those that cannot work. If you look at the labor market, the recovery is only 50 done from a huge decline over the crisis, in the midst of the crisis. There are a lot of people who simply do not have income to spend. Going forward, the sustainability of the recovery is what is in question, not this huge swing between the second and Third Quarter, which we will get the results for for the Third Quarter on thursday. Vonnie how much is china playing into this . Pricing wise, will people end up paying more for their durable goods because the relationship with china has deteriorated so much . Yelena it has been a question since before the pandemic. We have not seen much of a movement simply because of tariffs. I would say it is less of a factor for the u. S. Economy at this point. It is more about the lack of income. Group is not expecting much inflation on the horizon. We were in a deflationary camp because aggregate demand is so weak, we will probably not see the fed get to a 2 sustained target anytime before 2024. That doesnt sound all that great. Thank you, yelena shulyatyeva. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Time for a look at the latest Bloomberg Business flash. Record low Mortgage Rates spurn competition for an increasingly scarce supply of houses. Home prices rose the most in two years in august, according to index. Eshiller prices rose 5. 2 from the previous year. The cities with the fastest rising prices, phoenix, seattle, san diego. Closer to itsstep widely anticipated ipo. They will list shares on the nasdaq. Bloomberg reported that airbnb will seek to raise as much as 3 billion in an ipo later this year. The company had filed for the offering confidentially with the sec. Its a combination of two of the bestknown toys. The Company Behind etchasketch is buying the maker of the rubiks cube. Other toy sales, rubiks cube have soared in the pandemic. This eeo expects a 50 increase in revenue this year. That is your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Lets take a look at the markets. At 33 and change. S p 500 unchanged. Crawling its way back to flat. And nasdaq up. 6 , primarily on the xilinx news. We will be talking about that. The best up 7 , performer in the major indices. Currency wise,nt although we are seeing the chinese yuan strengthened a little bit. The dollar index, back below 93. This is bloomberg. Live from toronto, im amanda lang. Vonnie im vonnie quinn in new york. Welcome to bloomberg markets. We are joined by our bloomberg and Bnn Bloomberg audiences. Here are the top stories we are following from around the world. Amd agrees to buy xilinx in an all stock deal, breaking into the possible market for Data Center Computer components. Senators depart capitol hill. A preelection stimulus deal looks to be near impossible as the senate adjourned until after the election. We will talk about that and the outlook for Foreign Policy with lauren baer. Insight into the luxury hotel industry. We will hear from the Mandarin Oriental ceo about business and leisure travel. How the pandemic has weighed on the company. Amanda we are keeping our eyes on the markets. Some groups in the s p 500 are decidedly mixed. Tech is one bright spot, seeing a little bit of strength. Much of that can be attributed to the deal in the chip space. Snp back in positive territory, was negative today, but along with tech it is utilities and consumer facing groups higher. Industrials a drag on the market today. I want to dig into this deal. Intel moving lower, which may signal what investors fear about amds 35 billion dollars stock. Ffer for xilinx as you might expect, we are seeing a reaction in amd shares. We are seeing lots of commentary about where this may bring the company, combined companies. Spoker today, bloomberg with the ceo of amd. People look at our businesses and say they are complementary, and they are complementary from a product and market standpoint. We have important intersections around the data center focus. Also around the technology strategy. Bloomberg spoke with the ceo of amd. Another deal like nvidia. Will it do what amd is hoping it will do . A couple of important takeaways here, different from the things that intel and amd have done in the past that perhaps have not worked out. This is not a deal that will result in some miracle product that is bringing together everything great that they do and we do. She said xilinx is a Good Business, we are going to run it as a Good Business on its own, and i will stay focus on what got me to where i am. One day down the road, we would get together. Basically she is saying i will use this runup in the value in my stock to buy a company that has higher margins than i have right now, better cash flow than i have right now, and will get me into these new markets. It is a very pragmatic approach, something that investors wanted to hear from her. Vonnie what about the price . Too much of a premium . Initial reports, as you will remember, was for 30 billion. Obviously announced today at 35. A bit of a delta there. The premiums are not extremely high, about where you would expect things to be, but we are seeing amd trade off today, as we are seeing a lot of companies do on an all stock deal. Some shareholders looking at this and saying it is too much of a dilution for me. The key will be what we will see in trading in the next few days. That is where we see other Chip Companies going out. If amd can replicate that, perhaps we will see some concerns manifesting in the marketplace. At the moment, the selloffs we are seeing, a lot of people are saying this is nothing to be worried about. One of the stories about the dominant chip players is margin compression. Once they dominate the market, that compression is pretty fierce. Does this buy margin . Are these highmargin businesses that amd can acquire . Ian if you are talking about margin pressure, you are really only talking about intel. They have had some of the industryleading margins, and have suffered recently because of their own mistakes. In general, chip Company Margins are high. Has been going up with a consolidated market. Amd has been looking to sell. Xilinx has software margins in the 60s, 70s. That is obviously a step up for amd. Vonnie thank you so much for all of your reporting on this, ian. Technology, this week, Bloomberg Technology will be analyzing all the ways in which technology is playing a role in the president ial elections and beyond. Tune in at 5 00 eastern for Bloomberg Technology electioneering. Coming up, discussing the derivatives between President Trump and joe biden on Foreign Policy with state Department Advisor lauren baer. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Im vonnie quinn in new york. Alongside amanda lang in toronto. U. S. Senators have departed washington for a break, missing making the possibility for a stimulus deal impossible before election day. We are joined now by lauren baer, former state Department Senior advisor under president obama. First of all, your thoughts lettingshington, d. C. The fiscal stimulus ball drop. Was that the wise thing to do before the election . Lauren i dont think it is particularly wise, particularly when Everyday Americans are struggling to make ends meet. I think it is part and parcel of this administrations fundamental indifference to the suffering of Everyday Americans during this pandemic. Both the physical suffering due to the disease, which has led to 220,000plus deaths, but the economic suffering that individuals are enduring on a daytoday basis. This reaffirms a belief that this administration is fundamentally interested in its own political fortunes and self interests, but not in the needs of Everyday Americans. Amanda the issues are so regional, as is the outcome of the election, because of the way your system is structured. In terms of what matters to the voters in florida and wisconsin, are there galvanizing issues, or is it very different statebystate . Lauren there are certainly galvanizing issues across the board. Foremost among those is the issue of health care. The Trump Administration has made very clear that its intention is to try to repeal obamacare. They are pushing out a case before the Supreme Court right now that would have that effect. Americans rely on obamacare, the Affordable Care act, in order to be able to ensure their safety and security. Of acularly in the midst global pandemic, when so many among of has become sick, and with Lasting Health effects unknown, the fact that Health Care May be ripped away from them under a Trump Administration is top of mind. There are other galvanizing issues across the board, everything from securing Voting Rights to reproductive freedom to ensuring we finally tackle climate change. You believeow that donald trump has undermined the u. S. On the world stage a belief that many share but if there were to be a change in administration and joe biden would be president , with the American People be absolutely certain and secure in the knowledge that there would be complete transparency about what is happening on the International Stage . I think joe biden has shown nothing but transparency throughout his career and is committed to that in his administration, which is in complete contrast to the obfuscation and the lies that come from the Trump Administration. Lets take a look back and look at what trumps Foreign Policy has been, which is cozying up to dictators, undermining our allies and international institutions, and actually abdicating u. S. Leadership at the time when it arguably mattered most, which is toward knitting a Global Response to the pandemic. That was when the u. S. Needed to step up and lead, and we didnt. What you would see from joe biden and his administration is protecting american sovereignty, reinserting leadership on the global stage, but doing it by leading with our values. This is someone that has decades long experience in Foreign Policy, knows that we cannot go it alone as a country, that we have to rely on allies and international institutions, and that america also needs to be a Global Leader in order to deliver for americans on the issues that matter for them most. This year, it is keeping them safe in the midst of a pandemic. Amanda we have to leave it there, appreciate your time. Former states a Department Advisor for barack obama. Coming up, we are talking to the ceo of the Mandarin Oriental hotels about reopening in a global pandemic. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Im vonnie quinn in new york. Mandarin oriental is in the process of reopening its Hotels Across the globe with some location seeing business return to levels not seen in months. I got to speak earlier with ceo james riley about how a resurgence in the virus could impact progress. A really tough second quarter. We went through a process of reopening many of our hotels in the Third Quarter. Period ofng to see a rebuilding in the fourth quarter, but i have to be honest, particularly in europe and the americas, the resurgence of the pandemic means progress toward rebuilding is slow. In asia, we are seeing some Good Progress being made but much less so in europe and north america. Vonnie how many of your hotels and residences are open right now . But two. L open vonnie how are you pivoting the business . Are you preparing for a day where there will be significant Business Travel again, or do you imagine it will be so long before that day comes, you have to do something to your Business Model . James my focus for some time has been on leisure travel. I believe at the luxury end of the market, leisure and business leisure have been at the heart of luxury travel. I have been seeing Business Travel gradually declining as a proportion of our business for some time. The pandemic has accelerated that trend. As a group, i would characterize us as focusing very much on leisure, some 60 of our business would be leisure. About 25 may be business. That business segment will be slow to come back. It will come back particularly only in areas of the premium element, rather than the volume of Business Travel. Vonnie which governments have been most helpful . James in europe, there has been a lot of support for colleagues who have not been able to come to work, restrictions requiring the closure of hotels, or a significant fall in volume. We have also seen significant help coming from the hong kong and singapore governments, and the japanese government. Obviously, some support from the u. S. Government in terms of increasing the payments colleagues are receiving for a period at least. Those are the principal territories where we have seen help from governments, but in all cases, it can only go some way to make up for the losses that we experience as hotel owners during a time where we have seen occupancies in the single digits. Vonnie that is incredible. Can you give us an idea of what the occupancy levels are . Vary significantly, but at a point, we only had 200 guests globally. As i said, less than 25 of our hotels open. Today, we are doing much better. In china, we are back to normalcy, seeing 80 , 90 occupancy on a regular basis. In our hong kong properties, the in thel mandarin, 50 weekends, 25 during the week. It varies between territory ies, depending on where they have a higher proportion of Business Travel, to those areas that can get into the 20s and 30s. There are very few, other than those i named, that are higher than that, with the exception of resort properties. Particularly in the mediterranean, they have done very well. Vonnie can i ask about your new york hotels . Do you imagine that will return to 100 occupancy in 2021 . Been well, it has never at 100 occupancy, but we have been able to maintain good levels in the past year. The question is what will happen in new york. Right now it remains a challenging operating environment in which to work. I dont think we will get back to normal levels of occupancies certainly in the first half of 2021. I hope going into the summer months we see a sharp reduction in the impact of the pandemic in north america and europe, and coming from that we also see longterm revenues to enable people to travel again with confidence in the volumes that they once did. Vonnie i know that you are in discussions about an alliance. You decided to wrap it up and get it going during the pandemic. Talk about that. Group that i have had good knowledge about for a while is a premium, quality luxury hotel operation, primarily in india but operations elsewhere. I have enormous respect not only for the quality of service they vide, but for the oerboi oberoi family, which was behind the properties. , thought it was a natural fit so that we could introduce our global guests to the indian market through the wonderful oberoi properties. And we can bring indian guests who are familiar with their offerings to our hotels around the world. The opportunity is not just to bring each others guests to our enableies but also to colleagues to have a greater opportunity to move between properties and to Exchange Ideas and thoughts in terms of wellness, food and beverage offerings we have. Was the Mandarin Oriental ceo james riley. There may be a big change afoot in the gaming industry. The Worlds Largest casino company, sands, may be looking to sell property in las vegas. Our los, we welcome angeles bureau chief. Up to 6 billion in combined assets could be for sale. It raises the question of the timing here im a what the potential bidding would look like. 6 billion is apparently s lowest price. Teen we are talking about the venetian and the sands expo center, right on the las vegas strip, very Profitable Properties in good times, but these are not good times. Las vegas is struggling. Visitor volume, casino revenue this year is down around 50 . Having a hard time in particular with convention business, which is Las Vegas Sands specialty. In anothern way, a good time to sell. Lots of money sloshing around, institutional funds looking to buy real estate. Over all, casinos have held up pretty well from a financing standpoint, have been able to borrow money. If you get his price, he will sell. Vonnie you cannot lose money on a casino business. You can lose all around it, but the house always wins. This is an unusual business in that way. And it may be going at a discount, and there are plenty raised. Out there being do you see somebody trying to get in here . Chris recently, we have seen these partner groups partnering with Real Estate Investment trusts a few of those specialize in the casino space. We have seen those where we have managers managing the casinos, others owning the real estate. That has allowed some giant properties to sell. The bellagio, for example, selling for 4 billion plus. There has been a lot of activity in the market despite it all. That front, there must be a lot of concern about the path of the pandemic. Does that weigh on these transactions, or are people looking past this to whatever revenue was in 2019 there is a future ahead . Chris the buyers are looking toward the future, things are slowly coming back. You have to ask yourself, if one of the worlds richest men is getting out, do you want to get in . Las vegas will probably take years to get back to where it was. Vonnie terrifying to think about it. It has become less of a casino town and more of an entertainment town. That is a part of the problem. Big discotheques, pool parties, the restaurants, du soleil, all of that is having a hard time coming back, including their meeting business. Vonnie its an interesting story, thank you. Chris palmeri, our Los Angeles Bureau chief. Quick check on the markets. We see the s p 500 up. 1 . Lackluster day for two of the major indices. Up day for the nasdaq thanks to that 35 billion all stock deal between xilinx and amd. For myself and amanda, this is bloomberg. Mark i am Mark Crumpton with bloombergs first word news. The record coronavirus surge that started with Young Americans has reached the oldest populations. 65 andng to the cdc, older populations now have an average 19 daily cases per 1000 100,000. That is 67 higher than a month ago. Now that the Supreme Court has allowed the Trump Administration to end the census count, the Justice Department wants the courts to stop interfering with efforts to meet the yearend deadline for turning in numbers. Critics say the government does not have enough time to accurately finalize the data before then. The census is used to determine how me congressional seats each state gets as well as the distribution of one point 5 trillion in federal spending annually. A setback for President Trump in the case of a new york advice columnist who claims he raped her two decades ago. They ruled the government cannot be substituted for mr. Trump in a defamation lawsuit. If the judge