Cases are stuck. If you go back into lockdown, you will have a revolt. I am more interested in china. We broke the story that they are looking this was reuters they are looking a little more when it comes to renminbi. I did spend a good of time looking this up, on sunday, china clearly said it was trying to push to have a bigger international this means more pboc report. Reutersst report from we broke saying that china will remove a countercyclical factor in the yuan bay point in that direct and may point in that direction. Halt, shelf will its plan to let hedge cut to let hedge funds conceal stock holding. That is a big decision. That is just breaking. Thatll have to see where leads this morning. Futures up six. Dow futures up 20. We will do the data check in a moment. But now, first world news with ritika gupta. Ritika Amy Coney Barrett has been sworn in as a justice of the supreme court. Boothsst of two required administered. Every republican but one voted in favor. Chief Justice John Roberts will administer the second oath today. Surge has coronavirus reached the oldest populations. According to the cdc, counties with the largest 65 and older populations now have an average 19 daily cases per 100,000 residents. , 67 higher than a month ago. China ramped up its purchase of American Goods last month. Still, it is far from the four euro target to set out under phase one of the trade deal. The chinese bought more american oil, soybeans and cars. With three months to go in the year, beijing is a little more than one third of the way towards the goal of 170 billion in u. S. Imports. Prime minister Boris Johnson facing revolt from more than 50 of his own conservative members of parliament, demanding a clear route out of lockdown for parts of northern britain. Johnson hiss told strategy of targeting local disproportionately damaging the economies of northern regions. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Tom lets look at the data. This is a huge deal, there was an idea here of masking Stock Holdings of hedge funds down to 100 million and up to a very large 3. 5 billion in assets. By a claimen pounded from the public. We will have more on this, Robert Schmidt reporting. Hedge funds shot as stock secrecy fades. Storys an important today. Important as well as the rebound, or lack there of. Futures up six right now. Yield stone too much. Dashiell Patrick Armstrong earlier said about gold, 19. 01. Francine this will have repercussions. The fact that the sec has shelved these plans. Plannk you mentioned, the would have increased the threshold of who would have to billion to 100 million. If i look at my data check, a lot of what were looking at has to do with earnings. A lot of also with renminbi, and we heard from china possibly some of the prints some of the plans. Futures for a little optimistic. A brightering outlook for dividends. Accrued a little higher. Crude little higher. Tom Kevin Cirilli is our chief washington correspondent. The strategies of the two candidates changed in the last 24 hours . What are the odds of a biden adjustment in the trump adjustment. Beene Biden Campaign has sticking to the course. Ae biden has not been holding campaign schedule. President trump, ramping up his rallies. He had three in pennsylvania yesterday. Hes got up to five and six plans per day. This is the same trip the same strategy he deployed in 2016. Tom the same strategy has 2016, based on what you see in the polls, there were 84 polls out yesterday, its hilarious. Based on what you see, is there any indication the president s strategy is working . Is he closing the gap . Kevin yes. In terms of pennsylvania and florida, it is a razor thin margin. Incrediblyeel confident in pennsylvania, florida is a tossup. When you have Kamala Harris going to texas, a political hail mary for democrats, they have always wanted to flip texas, the question will become in the postmortems of next month whether or not they should have focused on battleground states as opposed to expanding the map. There are a lot of unknowns. In terms of the strategy, for President Trump he has got to win back the rust Belt Coalition 2018,e lost ground to in as well as with suburban women voters. For joe biden, he has to attract rust belt voters that Hillary Clinton was not able to turn out in 2016. Francine there is a rasmussen poll, for the first time in a month trump is leading nationally. It is one pole that was sent to me by a viewer. What do i make of it . Kevin rasmussen typically has been the outlier. Savvyr, it has also been in terms of how it has been able to predict the republican turnout. Sense of the Republican Base and their enthusiasm, that is what this comes down to. Enthusiasm. Are republicans enthusiastically going to show up and cast their an election where 50 million americans have already cast their ballots . That is the big question mark. Are issues like coronavirus going to be driving voters to the pole . Or, the economy . Questionhe biggest mark heading into the election. Francine at this point, President Trump could still get a second term. Is it two intend . What is the probability . Kevin i will politely dodger question. [laughter] i dont think anyone is counting out President Trump on the left, nor the right. He did it once. Know if he feels his back is against the wall. Democrats think they can pull off an upset. The biggest question on the left is what kind of President Joe Biden would be . Honestly, he didnt really answer those questions in the past week. Maybe it is by design. , manyhington, d. C. Sources i have talked to are trying to figure out what joe biden would look like. Tom i see a desire to figure out the marginal hispanic vote in florida. How does mr. Biden do that . He has got to have them turn out, but he also has to have this understanding that there is a catholic vote amongst the Hispanic Community in florida that typically has leaned more republican. To 2000, 1999. In terms of getting them to turn out, i think there is an issue of economics. They think it is much less democraticsocialist issues beyond the catholichispanic vote, and it is beyond economics. For many in that state, they are an underserved community. Tom you look tanned and rested. Kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent on the seven day dash to the election. We wont know where we are at 2 00 a. M. Wednesday morning. Coming up, we drive forward the political conversation. Dow futures up 33. Mr. Munson will join from pgr group. This is bloomberg. Tom following a number of stories. Chinamakes an a judge makes an adjustment on the yuan. Google out with a polished pr statement. They are going to work with ap on election results, for what thats worth. Futures up eight. Dow futures of 32. Emphasizing that is david rosenberg. Slicing and dicing inflation, folding it over into market reaction. David, lets begin with inflation. In europe with a five year breakeven, do you assume a and largerd rising inflation in the years to come . Time i have a tough believing that inflation is going to become a sustained problem, at least for the next three years. The outlook cap, or, the differential between aggregate demand in the United States is far too high for me to be worried about inflation. I know that it has become a headline of late with breakeven levels, my forecast is a bit different. I think the consensus on this doesnt mean we are going to go through a period where some of these cost pressures in the material sectors deep through. Inflation is a process. Have continuously accelerating prices, not to just one off level shifts. I think the narrative has overdone it on the inflation side. It is going to be years before we see sight reading eye your stuff at merrill lynch. The basic theme is different because Service Sector is such a mystery in this pandemic. What is the price persistency of the Service Sector in collapse in a Natural Disaster like this . What that is really things are this time. Normally in a recession, Service Prices are sticky. You get deflation and commodities of the cpi or the pc deflator. This time, it has been flipped. I am not a believer we are seeing sustained increases out of materials. I think that is temporary. More related to the chinese economic recovery we are seeing. I am not looking at commodities being a sustained source of inflation. The Services Side is interesting. Ofn you look at the cpi, 30 the index is related to residential rent. 40 of the court is residential rent. I do nothing i do not think people have thought through the commodity sector is a two bit player. The dominant feature here is we are going to go through in the next years, a massive increase in vacancy rates in the apartment sector and strive down residential rates on a sustained basis. That is going to overwhelm everything happening in the price indices. On the crvs focused index, not really looking at what is dominating here. It is about the rental rates, we are already in the process of disinflating. That is going to dominate. I think the breakevens are out of whack. I am focused on china. Industrial profit is up. Consumption is up. Could we import inflation from china . You could argue we could import some inflation from china from the fact that there growth is stimulating demand for commodities. Last i saw, you dont walk into walmart, go down an aisle and buy a pound of copper. Theinflation thrust from commodity sector to a Service Sectorbased economy like the u. S. Is small. The way you import inflation for many company is on creatively goods, but that is a small part of the picture. It is nothing compared to what you are going to be seeing on the Services Side. Francine i dont buy copper, but i buy everything else, usually plastic, made in china. Talk about emerging market currencies and how they would actually move and change depending on who becomes president after the vote . David it is tough to say. Ive never thought of any particular president has any say over where currency goes. U. S. Dollar there are lots of reasons to be bearish on the u. S. Dollar, but it has come down quite a bit. Who is in the white house really matters. Had secondarket has thoughts and the blue wave, not because biden is going to lose but because people are thinking, is the senate going to flip . It probably wont. That doesnt matter who takes over the overall the oval office, it depends on the legislative branch. When you take a look at emerging markets, another homogeneous entity, currencies are not like bonds or stock, you have to value them on relative basis. It is also benchmarked against what is happening in other parts of the world. I would hazard to say i think the u. S. Dollar will be on a weakening trend against a lot of these emerging asian currencies because they handled the pandemic better. They didnt blow their brains out on fiscal policy, they are going to come out a lot more quickly. There is a bullish case. To answer your question, insofar as what it means for emerging asia. You are already seeing it in the yuan. Those currencies are already strong vix vix in the new year. Tom thank you so much. Great commodity perspective. Coming up this is going to be an important conversation with oil. West texas, 38. 99. Jeffrey curry of Goldman Sachs. Always informative. This is bill burck this is bloomberg. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. Resumegnal that may limited Dividend Payments this year. Lenders have been pushing the bank of england to lift a payouts. Hsbc posted higher than expected thirdquarter profits. But, it still faces a number of problems. Low analysis from the pandemic, falling interest rates, and Political Tension in hong kong. Bloomberg has learned that Sheldon Adelsons Las Vegas Sands is exploring sale couldt a fetch 6 billion while marking his exit from the u. S. Gambling industry. The u. S. Makes up a shrinking part of his business and accounts for less than 15 of revenue. General on head of litigation and Goldman Sachs have been accused of covering up sexual harassment. A subordinate filed suit saying she was forced out after she spoke up against sexual harassment. Oldman says the allegations are without merit. That is the latest. Francine thank you so much. This is what we are looking at in europe. A lot of focus on earnings. At some of the Biggest Drug Company reporting, it is a bit of a mixed fortune. Of course there is the relentless spread of coronavirus that is impacting a lot of stocks as well. Crude, higher. Green anad red and hour ago, futures up nine now. Even the vix turns around ever so slightly. We will take it. From 32 down to 32. 4. We will take everything we can debt. Everything we can get. The dollar churning flat. No other way to put it. As of note. Yen a strong yen versus a weaker euro. With 8. 16 an hour ago. A little better, but it has been an extremely challenging three or four days for turkey. Of course, bouncing back and forth between mr. Micron and mr. Erdogan. I want to Say Something about our political coverage, Kevin Cirilli following everything. Here, spearing forward these next seven days. Of course, we go to election coverage through the weekend and into the first tuesday of november. On that perspective from Lester Munson of pgr group. An interesting twist here on the strategies forward. Stay with us, from london and new york, this is bloomberg. Pres. Trump covid, covid, covid. Thats all they talk about, the fake news. What progress we have made, too. We understand it. We know we have to protect our seniors, especially when they have diabetes. We have the best testing in the world. Thats why we show so many cases, because we do more testing. We are doing great. Here i am, i am here too. [applause] line, donaldttom trump is the worst possible person to lead us through this pandemic. I dont think he has any idea what to do, or just doesnt care. Tom the campaign, it is interesting. We speak of trump, trump supporters, mr. Biden, a lot of focus on the shades of the democratic experience. What about the republicans . Interesting, maybe you can define an old line republican, the be the pgr group. R group. With a privilege of working with the gentleman from mississippi, Lester Munson joins us. On the middle ground for republicans. I am absolutely fascinated with the great unspoken, how does the Republican Party regroup with the Trump Victory . Trump victory or a Biden Victory . What is the party do the first monday of november . If it is a Trump Victory they are going to have to make a tough decision about biting the bullet and joining the trump wing of the party, or becoming democrats. If biden wins, there is going to be gnashing of teeth within the Republican Party. There is going to be blood in the water. Hopefully that is resolved quickly and to party can reformulate itself on the hill and with a new candidate for 2024. There are a lot of interesting things ahead for republicans. Tom part of it is an representation of your area which is the state department and Foreign Policy. What is the distinction you see if we rebuild the state department . How will that occur under a biden presidency . Biden is a much more mainstream, traditional, washington oriented politician. He has been there 50 years. He knows Foreign Policy. He has a team of people who have worked with him for years. Everyone who works in a Foreign Policy has some familiarity with joe biden. I dont think theres a Single Person who doesnt know him so him doesnt know him so how. He will come out with a lot of familiarity and that might make it easier for him to recraft things. That is, if he is able to grab hold of the hill. Hes got support in the senate to be able to do things he wants to do. The table could be set for him to do interesting things on Foreign Policy. Francine what would joe biden, as president , due in the first 100 days . Would he be focusing on Foreign Policy . To have a he is going very domestic focused administration. That is what he has been talking about. He is going to be focused on coronavirus, having a different response than the Trump Administration has had. He will be pushing out Public Health experts more than President Trump has. That is a good guess. On Foreign Policy, i think he will take a number of steps to visit withliances, traditional allies in europe and the far east, and to do the trump wast president not willing to do. Traditional photo op summit events. Francine does President Trump still have a shot at this . Could he get a second term . I think he could. I think it is going to be very close. The numbers are very similar to 2016. We have always known that donald trump has under pulled where his real support is. The numbers look very similar. If you look at battleground states, they are very tight. A shift of just a couple of points could throw this to the president. Tom what does the president not need to do . What does he need to avoid . Any think he needs to avoid new disclosures of malfeasance or bad behavior on his part. Anything that undermines what support there is for the president. His Favorability Ratings are actually a little high. Atstarted off four years ago 37 , he is now 43 . He wants to keep that going in a positive direction. He has got to show energy, he has got to show he has recovered from coronavirus and contrast himself with joe biden who has a slower pace and has not been quite as aggressive. Francine if you look at the polls, the democrats could take texas. Democrats could actually take georgia. Also, ohio. How does the president still have a shot . Texashink the numbers in look close. I think they are more favorable for republicans. I would rather be or republican in texas. Georgia will be interesting. There are two senate races there that could determine which Party Controls the senate, which would be huge. It is very tight. The democrats are in a better position. If the election were right now, they would likely win. We have seven more days to go. Trump needs to gin up enthusiasm, get up get out of those noncollegeeducated white voters who dont normally vote. That is is key. He is not trying to persuade independents, he is trying to persuade a trump voters who havent voted yet. Iose polls are illusory, think it is going to be very close. The president seems to be searching a little bit. Tom Lester Munson with bgr group. Really interesting, something we have not covered that much. The republican dynamic of mr. Trump, his dominance over the party. This is a moment of history for silicon valley. If you think it david if you think of David Packard and mr. Hewlett, all of stanford and berkeley, there is a merger. Amd will purchase xilinx. It is a four mile difference from santa clara to san jose. For those who remember their versioning the burgeoning Semi Conductor business, this is a really important transaction. Employees, it is truly an historic moment for american technology. With a lower margin, will buy the profitable xilinx. Lets go to first world news, here is ritika gupta. Ritika a big win for President Trump and Congressional Republicans on the eve of the election. The Senate Confirmed Amy Coney Barrett to be the newest justice on the supreme court. That solidifies a 63 conservative majority. Barrett may be asked to weigh in on the outcome of a close election. The Clinical Trial of an eli lilly vaccine wont resume. Researchers determined the truck without help already hospitalized patients with advanced cases. Itearch is ongoing to see if can help patients earlier in the disease. A labor union is suing President Trump over an executive order that makes it easier to fire federal workers involved in policymaking decisions. The National Treasury employees union represents 150,000 federal workers. Critics say the order is a way for the president to require political loyalty from Civil Service workers for the Trump Administration has taken Civil Service workers. China and the u. S. Are already at odds. Yesterday, beijing imposed sanctions on boeing, Lockheed Martin and raytheon because of a previously announced arms sales to taiwan. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Francine thanks so much. Covid19. E track we look at lockdowns, restrictions, covid19. This is bloomberg. Ritika coming up later, Boston Consulting Group ceo rich lesser. This is bloomberg. I understand there is a huge allure of rushing out of vaccine. The other thing we have to remember is when we go too fast, we can disrupt the ability of Clinical Trials to occur for even better vaccines. We have got to strike this balance of making sure we do not undermine the larger scale efforts in our rush to get something out. Francine chief executive notes chief executive of novartis speaking with bloomberg earlier. Johns hopkins has been on the forefront of the international response. Every day, we bring you insight from experts in Public Health and emergency preparedness. Joining us is dr. A miss showed jala francine what can you tell us about the number of hospitals in the u. S. And elsewhere that cannot cope with the number of rising . There are multiple states in the u. S. Including wisconsin, north and south dakota as well as utah where hospitals are unable to cope with the number of patients they are getting. Not only will they have to deal with a lot of patients, but that impacts all of their other operations. ,eart attack care, trauma care that makes everybodys health go down. Even if you have pandemic for tea, the hospitals still have to take care of patients with covid. That is what flattening the curve was about, trying to keep it below hospital capacity. Many places in this country do not have the capacity to deal with these cases. The same is true in europe. That is where you see Public Health interventions being made. Our goal is not to get to zero, that is impossible. It is to keep them to a pace that is manageable by the system. In order to do that, those are common sense recommendations you keep hearing. As long as a plan for testing, tracing and isolating. Tom the people who are packing , how sick are they . As a general statement, theyve got the virus they are ill, how ill is ill for a typical hospitalization . Hospitalization involves usually somebody that does not necessarily need to go oxygen. Cu, but requires they are sick enough that they cant cope at home, they need to be in the hospital to be monitored and watched. Some of those people do end up percent. Some of those people to get worse. Getting better at taking care of these patients and intervening earlier so they do not get as sick. People are probably getting infected with less virus because there is so much facial covering use, the inoculum is lower. It does seem they are less sick. It is still a deadly disease we have to take seriously. Francine if someone who had the virus earlier, if you catch it again, it is less worse is it less worse than the first time . Is it because there is a different population being hit there is less hospitalization . Reinfections are rare. There have only been about a handful documented. We cant say whether or not when reoffend when reinfection occurs it is better or worse. Least one caseat where it was worse. Have verymething we small numbers. You cannot make any kind of scientific statement about it. Demographics have changed. We are seeing younger people being more infected, they are ones that are more risk tolerant. Theyre the ones taking part in sports, doing small gatherings. Older populations are still sheltering in place a little bit more than younger populations. Younger populations are generally not going to need hospitalization. Of the obscuring some data because the demographics have changed. It is true that there are multiple populations that are still getting infected and there are ones in the hospital. They are the ones in the icu, they are the ones dying. Francine vaccine trials have resumed, how quickly can we get a vaccine that can be distributed and used by the population . For a good chunk of the population to get a vaccine, it is likely going to be mid2021. Best case scenario, when you might have an emergency use authorization prior to that end of the year. But that we will only allow to trickle out to health care workers. You have to think about the scale of getting enough doses available to meaningfully impact the virus, that is a long time. This is going to be a two dose vaccine with logistical challenges. It needs to be kept at a very cold temperature. We are going to be about all this we are going to be battling this without a vaccine well into 2021. Francine amesh adalja from Johns Hopkins. For ourevery day exclusive conversations with Johns Hopkins experts. Later, the eli lilly chief executive david ricks. Also, the conversation on antibody testing. This is bloomberg. Ritika a big takeover in the semiconductor business. Hasnced micro devices agreed to buy. That takes the chipmaker into more diverse markets. It also adds to amds data center offerings. Amd estimates it will take about 80 months to win approval from shareholders. Spanish bank rebounded from its worst ever quarter with a profit that beat estimates. It is trying to convince estimators it is Strong Enough to resume paying dividends. Dividendsal ban on has proven to be negative for the sector. It is at the same time very difficult to differentiate amongst banks because you can [indiscernible] what we believe is that they would allow for a small, but general dividend payment. Ritika that is your latest. Vix francine s. A. P. s dire Earnings Results sent a wave of fear yesterday. Thesehief executive says troubles are unique to them. He argued that sap has not optimized the cloud opportunity. We just delivered a phenomenal quarter, more than 5. 5 billion in revenue. It was actually 29 growth. Having verythey are significant troubles with the co transmission. They moved from one co to two, then they fired one. One of those two is just not going well. Customers are saying that. Now you can see their revenues are also reflecting this trouble. That surprising number was a poor cloud backlog, which is to say perhaps some of that market shale market share is taken . Excluded not they have not executed the cloud option well. We are the Customer Success company. We help companies connect with their customers in new ways. That is our main focus. You can see that with our tremendous customer base, whether it is Companies Like , ciscoohnson johnson have all transformed themselves salesforce. Using that focus has served us well. We are number one now in crm. You saw the new information which came out last week, our market share continues to grow. A year that none of us could possibly have expected. Company isgy, every going through a massive Digital Transformation end if that transformation is accelerating. Troubles are unique to them. You eliminated 1000 jobs earlier this year, those included customer support. Will you be rehiring . What are your plans on that given the strength of your results . We are adding more than 4000 new jobs in this current six month period. We will add 12,000 jobs this year as part of that. We will shift about 1000 of our positions. 54,000 employees worldwide. We are constantly making changes to our employment base. We continue to grow very aggressively in all geographies and we are very excited about the transformation the company has gone through this year. Ishow much of that strength coming specifically from asia giving given they are emerging from the pandemic faster . I was in singapore last weekend it is amazing the difference between singapore and the United States. In the United States, everything is closed. Everyone is going through difficult days. The pandemic is hitting record case numbers. In singapore, they had no new cases. Every restaurant was open. Every business was open. Every store was open. We can learn a lot from asia. We can learn a lot from japan on how to handle this pandemic. Of course, this is not their first pandemic. Before, theyrned are executing their playbook. In the United States, we are having a lot of trouble. Not the first pandemic in china, either. You have entered business with alibaba, give us a brief update on how that is going. Where are you seeing strengths and challenges . Daniel zhang is the ceo of alibaba. He has been a tremendous partner. He helped us procure more than 60 Million Units of ppe. That has now gone to over 300 hospitals in the United States and around the world. Thatuld not have done without our partnership with daniel and alibaba. We will be eternally grateful. That was a salesforce chief executive officer mark benioff speaking with bloomberg. Lets have a quick look at markets, but also tell you about a big deal out there. Tom brought it to you 15 minutes ago. European stocks dropping. We had some Companies Reporting earnings. Merck,and merrick pfizer revenue pretty much in line with expectations, merck attached below. Merck a touch below. Xilinx for 35 billion in stocks. You can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. With the carrier rated 1 in customer satisfaction. Call, click, or visit your local xfinity store today. More voluminous hair instantly. All it takes is just one session at hairclub. Introducing xtrands. Xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands to your existing hair at the root. Theyre personalized to match your own natural hair color and texture, so theyll blend right in for a natural, effortless look. Call in the next five minutes and when you buy 500 strands, you get 500 strands free. Call right now. upbeat music less are in now there leverage and the equity market. We have huge levels of debt and we dont want to get into a debt trap. It is clear we are going to see downward revisions. The question is how strong they are. The fed has a lot of upside to accelerate. I think they will maintain this pace. Covid is a great un equalizer. The strong get stronger, the weak get weaker. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. Jonathan good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance , live on bloomberg tv and radio. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Tuesday morning, equity futures bouncing back a little bit, up 15 on the s p 500. One week away from wrapping up this election. Tom weve really got to put in perspeth
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